Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market

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Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021
         Selected Angles on the Market
                    Presented by Patrick Carlisle
                Compass Chief Market Analyst, Bay Area
1989 2021: agent, sales manager, designated broker, director of training, VP of
business development, chief market analyst Pacific Union, Paragon, Compass
Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
1st Half, Dollar-Volume Home Sales                                                               House, condo, co-op, townhouse, TIC,
                                                                                                       halfplex sales reported to NorCal Regional
      Marin County, Sales Reported to MLS since 2015*                                                  MLS, January 1 through June 30 of each year.

                                                                                  In the first 6 months of 2021, almost
                                                                                  $3.5 billion in home sales were
  Of Bay Area Counties, Marin County                                              reported to MLS in Marin County, 65%
  saw the highest percentage increase in                                          above the previous peak in 2018.
  2021 over its previous peak in sales.

                                                                                                             Covid hits in
                                                                                                             Spring 2020

$1,876,400,000 $1,899,000,000 $1,973,000,000 $2,123,100,000 $2,014,500,000 $1,593,900,000 $3,493,500,000

1st Half 2015       1st Half 2016          1st Half 2017         1st Half 2018         1st Half 2019         1st Half 2020          1st Half 2021

     * As reported to NorCal Regional MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and
     subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and rounded. We estimate, very approximately, that
     10% - 12% of sales are not reported to MLS and thus not reflected in this analysis.
Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
New Listing & Sales Volumes, Longer-Term Trends since 2005
                  Marin County, 12-Month Rolling Data*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Updated through July 2021
5,000

4,500
                           12-month rolling data delivers                                                                                                         Highest 12-Month New Listing Volume since 2010
                           broad, clear, long-term trend
                           lines, but may disguise and                                                                                                                              Highest 12-Month Sales Volume since 2005
4,000                      lag shorter term changes.

3,500
                                                               12-Month-Rolling New Listing Volume
                                                               12-Month-Rolling Sales Volume
3,000

2,500
                                                                                                                                           ▲ Market recovery begins                                                                                 Pandemic strikes ▲

2,000
                          Financial markets crash ▲
                                                                                                                                                   The smaller the gap between new listings and sales, the tighter
                                                                                                                                                   the supply of homes for sale as compared to buyer demand.
1,500

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-17
                 Jul-05

                                    Jul-06

                                                      Jul-07

                                                                        Jul-08

                                                                                          Jul-09

                                                                                                            Jul-10

                                                                                                                              Jul-11

                                                                                                                                                Jul-12

                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-13
                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-14
                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-21
        Jan-05

                           Jan-06

                                             Jan-07

                                                               Jan-08

                                                                                 Jan-09

                                                                                                   Jan-10

                                                                                                                     Jan-11

                                                                                                                                       Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                         Jan-13

                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-21
                 * Each data point reflects the total of 12 months of activity for houses, condos, co-ops and townhouses.
                 1/12 of these numbers = an average month within the 12 month period. Sales reported to MLS, per NorCal
                 Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Last month data estimated from data available in early August. Data from
                 sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers are approximate.
Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
Marin County Home Price Trends since 2005
                       Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2021              $1,800,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $1,700,000

                       Median sales price is that price at which half the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $1,600,000
                       sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a
                       very general statistic, often affected by other
                       factors besides changes in fair market value.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $1,500,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2018
                       Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $1,400,000
                       Longer-term trends are more meaningful than
                       short-term changes.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           $1,300,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $1,200,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Pandemic hits ▲

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $1,100,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $1,000,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $900,000
                                                                                                     2009 - 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $800,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $700,000
                  Financial Market Crash ▲
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $600,000
                                                                                                                                         Jul-12
         Jul-05

                            Jul-06

                                               Jul-07

                                                                 Jul-08

                                                                                   Jul-09

                                                                                                     Jul-10

                                                                                                                       Jul-11

                                                                                                                                                           Jul-13

                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-14

                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-21
Jan-05

                   Jan-06

                                     Jan-07

                                                        Jan-08

                                                                          Jan-09

                                                                                            Jan-10

                                                                                                              Jan-11

                                                                                                                                Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                  Jan-13

                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-14

                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-21
                                              3-month rolling sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Analysis
                                              may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Market Cycles
  Home Price Increases & Declines, by Percentage, 1984 2021*
  https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-san-francisco-home-price-nsa-index/#overview

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Updated through
                  Market Peaks & Bottoms                                                                                                                                                                                    April 2021
               Approximate Percentage Changes
                  A simplified, smoothed-out graph*
                                                                                                                                                                   Financial
                                                                                                                                                                  markets crash                      2012 4/2021
                     Per CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller                                                                                                                                                     + 143%
                  Aggregate Index for Bay Area Houses
              Seasonally adjusted. Not adjusted for inflation.
                                                                                                                        2002 2006/07
                                                                                                                            + 72%

                                                                                                                                                             2007 2011
                                                                              1995 2001                                                                                                                                     High-tech boom,
                                                                                                                                                                - 40%                                                        then pandemic
                 1989 SF                                                        + 100%                                    Dotcom
               earthquake                                                                                                Pop/ 9-11                  Subprime
                                                                                                                           - 5%                      bubble

   1984 1990                                                                                                                                         Approximate % value changes based upon S&P Case-
                                                                                                            Dotcom
     + 100%                                   1991 1994                                                                                              Shiller Home-Price Index for 5-county metro area
                                                                                                             boom
                                                 - 11%                                                                                               (aggregate sales index, seasonally adjusted). Different
                      Junk bond                                                                                                                      price segments were affected very differently in the
                        boom                                                                                                                         scale of their subprime bubbles and resulting crashes.
1984
       1985
               1986
                      1987
                             1988
                                    1989
                                           1990
                                                  1991
                                                         1992
                                                                1993
                                                                       1994
                                                                              1995
                                                                                     1996
                                                                                            1997
                                                                                                   1998
                                                                                                          1999
                                                                                                                 2000
                                                                                                                        2001
                                                                                                                               2002
                                                                                                                                      2003
                                                                                                                                             2004
                                                                                                                                                    2005
                                                                                                                                                           2006
                                                                                                                                                                  2007
                                                                                                                                                                         2008
                                                                                                                                                                                2009
                                                                                                                                                                                       2010
                                                                                                                                                                                              2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                     2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                            2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2021
 * The years between market peaks and bottoms are not accurately represented, but entered as straight
 lines between high and low points to illustrate percentage changes over time. Shorter-term fluctuations
 are not reflected on this chart. All numbers are very approximate and subject to revision.
Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
Percentage of Off-MLS Sales by Price Segment                                                        House, condo, townhouse, sales
                                                                                                          reported to NorCal Regional
      Marin County, Sales Reported to MLS, 2021 YTD                                                       MLS, 1/1/21 8/10/21

                                                                                                                                           40%
                     11% of Marin County home sales reported
                     to MLS were marketed off-MLS. As the sales                                                                            35%
                     price increased, the percentage of sales
                     occurring off-MLS soared.
                                                                                                                                           30%
                     Of off-MLS sales of $5 million & above, 43%
                     were listed by Compass agents.
                                                                                                                                           25%

                                                                                                                                           20%

                                                                                                                                           15%

                                                                                                                                           10%

                                                                                                                                           5%

      8%                          15%                            18%                            32%                  42%
                                                                                                                                           0%
Under $2,000,000             $2,000,000 -                   $3,000,000 -                   $5,000,000 -         $8,000,000+
                              $2,999,999                     $4,999,999                     $7,999,999
           * As reported to NorCal Regional MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may
           contain errors and subject to revision. Not all off-MLS sales are reported to MLS.
Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
New Listings Coming on Market
                   Marin County Market Dynamics & Seasonality by Month

                             May                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oct.
                             2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2020
                                                                                                                             May                                  Sept.                                                                                                                                                                     June
                                                                                                                             2019                                 2019                                                                      June                                                                                            2021
350                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2020

300

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Feb.
250
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2020
                                                                                                                                                Mid-
200                                          Mid-                                                                                             Summer
                                           Summer

150
                                 The ebb and flow of new listings coming on
                                 market is deeply affected by market seasonality.
100                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Pandemic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Hits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             December
50
                                                                                   December
                                                                                                                                                                                          December
 0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-20
               Feb-18

                        Apr-18

                                                   Jul-18

                                                                                       Nov-18

                                                                                                                                                      Jul-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-21
                                          Jun-18

                                                                     Sep-18

                                                                                                                  Feb-19

                                                                                                                           Apr-19

                                                                                                                                                                        Sep-19

                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Feb-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-20
                                                                              Oct-18

                                                                                                                                             Jun-19

                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Feb-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-21
                                 May-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          May-21
      Jan-18

                                                                                                Dec-18

                                                                                                                                    May-19
                                                                                                         Jan-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       May-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-21
               Mar-18

                                                            Aug-18

                                                                                                                  Mar-19

                                                                                                                                                               Aug-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-21
           Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources
           deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
Active Listings on Market
                     Marin County Real Estate Market Dynamics & Seasonality
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       For houses and condos

                                                                                                                               June
                                                                                                                               2019

                                                                                           Oct.                                                                                                                                                                        600
                                                                                           2018
                                                                          June
                    May                                                   2018                                                                                                              June              Oct.                                                     500
                    2017
                                                                                                                                                                                            2020              2020

                                                                                                                                                                            Pandemic hits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            July
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       200

                                                                                                   This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be
                                                                                                   expected on any given day of the specified month. This number                                                                                                       100
                                                                                                   is affected by 2 major dynamics: 1) how many new listings come
                                                                                                   on market, and 2) how quickly buyers snap them up.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0
                           Jul-17

                                                                                 Jul-18

                                                                                                                                        Jul-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-21
                                    Sep-17

                                             Nov-17

                                                                                          Sep-18

                                                                                                    Nov-18

                                                                                                                                                 Sep-19

                                                                                                                                                          Nov-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-21
                                                                                                                               May-19

                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                                                            May-20
Jan-17

         Mar-17

                  May-17

                                                      Jan-18

                                                               Mar-18

                                                                        May-18

                                                                                                             Jan-19

                                                                                                                      Mar-19

                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   May-21
           Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources
           deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
Marin County Short-Term Market Dynamics & Seasonality
                   Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract) by Month                                                                                                                                                                                                          Houses, condos, co-ops,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     townhouses as listed in MLS

                Typically, market activity ebbs and flows by season, though the pandemic
                upended normal trends in 2020. In summer 2021, activity began to decline                                                                                                                                                         July
                (a little) from spring peaks, an apparent reversion to seasonal norms                                                                                                                                                            2020                                                                        Spring
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            October
400             though activity remained much higher than in pre-pandemic summers.                                                                                                                                                                                           2020                                             2021
                                                                                                                               May
350                          May                                                                                               2019
                             2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            June-
300                                                                                                                                                                     October                                                                                   Fires                                                                      July
                                                                                                                                                                         2019                                                                                                                                                               2021

250
                                                                                                                                                  Summer
                                           Summer                                                                                                  2019
200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  December
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  - January
150

100                                                                                                                                                                                       December
                                                                                       December
                                                                                                                                                                                          - January Pandemic
                                                                                       - January
                                                                                                                                                                                                      hits
50

 0
                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov-19
               Feb-18

                                                                                                                  Feb-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Feb-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Feb-21
                        Apr-18

                                                   Jul-18

                                                                              Oct-18

                                                                                                                           Apr-19

                                                                                                                                                      Jul-19

                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-20
                                          Jun-18

                                                                     Sep-18

                                                                                       Nov-18

                                                                                                                                             Jun-19

                                                                                                                                                                        Sep-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       May-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-21
                                 May-18
      Jan-18

                                                                                                Dec-18

                                                                                                                                    May-19
                                                                                                         Jan-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-21
               Mar-18

                                                            Aug-18

                                                                                                                  Mar-19

                                                                                                                                                               Aug-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-21
         As reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Does not include activity unreported to MLS. Last month’s
         number estimated from data available in early August. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors
         and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
                         Marin County Real Estate Market since 2011                                                                                                                                                                                        Based upon accepted-offer activity for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Marin houses, condos and townhouses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           reported to Bareis MLS per Broker Metrics
 5

4.5                                                                                                                                            MSI = the number of months it would take
                                                                                                                                               to sell the existing inventory of homes for
                                                                                                                                               sale at current rates of market activity.
 4
                                                                                                                                               Fluctuations occur due to market
                           Market recovery begins in                                                                                           conditions (demand vs. supply) and typical
3.5                                                                                                                                            market seasonality.                                                                                                                                              Pandemic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  hits
 3

2.5

 2

1.5

 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Spring
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2018
0.5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Spring
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2021
 0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-21
                                 Jul-12

                                                                      Jul-13

                                                                                                          Jul-14

                                                                                                                                              Jul-15

                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-20
      Oct-11

                        Apr-12

                                          Oct-12

                                                             Apr-13

                                                                               Oct-13

                                                                                                 Apr-14

                                                                                                                   Oct-14

                                                                                                                                     Apr-15

                                                                                                                                                       Oct-15

                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-16

                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apr-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Oct-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Oct-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Oct-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-21
               Jan-12

                                                   Jan-13

                                                                                        Jan-14

                                                                                                                            Jan-15

                                                                                                                                                                Jan-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-20
                                                            Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
                                                             All numbers approximate. Late reported activity may alter last month’s reading.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
                      Marin County Real Estate Market Dynamics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          For houses and condos

                                                                                                                                                  Sept.
                                                                                              Oct.                                                2019
                                                                                              2018                                                                                                                                                                       250
                                                                                                                                  June
                                                                                                                                                                         The number of price reductions
                                                                                                                                  2019
                                                                                                                                                                         remains far below seasonal norms,                                                               225
                                                                                                                                                                         another indication of a market
                                                                                                                                                                         characterized by extremely high                                                                 200
                                                                                                                                                                         demand.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         175
                                     Sept.
                                     2017                                  June
                                                                           2018                                                                                                                                  Oct.                                                    150
                      June                                                                                                                                                                                       2020
                      2017                                                                                                                                                                      June
                                                                                                                                                                                                2020                                                                     125

                                                                                                                                                                               Pandemic hits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May-July
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         75

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         50

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0
                            Jul-17

                                                                                   Jul-18

                                                                                                                                         Jul-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-21
                                      Sep-17

                                               Nov-17

                                                                                            Sep-18

                                                                                                     Nov-18

                                                                                                                                                    Sep-19

                                                                                                                                                             Nov-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-21
                   May-17

                                                                          May-18

                                                                                                                                May-19

                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                                                               May-20
Jan-17

         Mar-17

                                                        Jan-18

                                                                 Mar-18

                                                                                                              Jan-19

                                                                                                                       Mar-19

                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       May-21
                  Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, activity on website. Data from sources
                  deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Luxury Homes Listings Accepting Offers by Month
Marin County: Homes Priced $3,000,000+ Going into Contract
                                                                                                                   Residential listings posted in
                                                                                                                       MLS, per Infosparks

                      Short-Term Trends By Month                                                                                      May
                                                                                                                                      2021
    Typically, luxury market activity ebbs and flows by                                      July-Aug.
    season, peaking in spring, hitting its nadir in mid-winter,                                2020
    though the pandemic upended normal trends in 2020. In                                                                                           50
    summer 2021, activity declined from spring peaks, an                                                    Oct.
                                                                                                            2020
    apparent reversion to seasonal norms though activity
    was much higher than in typical summers (2018, 2019)
                                                                                                                                                    40
                                                                                                                                          June-
                                            May                                                                                            July
                                                                                                 Fires
May                                         2019                                                                                          2021
2018                                                                                                                                                30
              Sept.
              2018                                           Oct.
                                                             2019
                                                                                                                                                    20

                                                                                                                    January
     Summer                                        July                                                                                             10

                                                                        Winter
                                                                                  ▲ Pandemic hits
                           Winter
                                                                                                                                                    0
  Jul-18
Mar-18
Apr-18

Oct-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Aug-18

Nov-18

  Jul-19

Oct-19
Aug-19

Nov-19

  Jul-20

Oct-20
Aug-20

Nov-20

  Jul-21
Feb-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Apr-21
 Jan-18

May-18
Jun-18

Sep-18

 Jan-19

May-19
Jun-19

Sep-19

 Jan-20

May-20
Jun-20

Sep-20

 Jan-21

May-21
Jun-21
House, condo, co-op, townhouse activity reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Does not include
activity unreported to MLS. Last month’s number estimated from data available in early August. Data from
sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Year-over-Year Median House Sales Price Increases
 by Bay Area County, Q2 2021 vs. Q2 2020                                                                               Per CAR Housing Affordability
                                                                                                                       Index calculations

  San Mateo         $2,117,500
                    $1,700,000

San Francisco       $1,900,000
                    $1,710,000

  Santa Clara       $1,699,500
                    $1,380,000

       Marin        $1,650,000
                    $1,460,000

 SF Bay Area        $1,345,000
                    $989,000

    Alameda         $1,300,000                                                                                                  Q2 2021
                    $990,000

  Santa Cruz        $1,250,000                                                                                                  Q2 2020
                    $905,000

Contra Costa        $1,000,000
                    $725,000

        Napa        $905,000
                    $720,000
                    $860,000                                                        Median price is that price at which half the sales
   Monterey         $680,000                                                        occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general
                    $817,950                                                        statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of
   California       $611,000                                                        sales prices in the individual underlying sales. It may
                    $795,000                                                        fluctuate for reasons other than changes in fair market
     Sonoma         $680,000                                                        value, and should not be considered an exact
                    $570,000                                                        measurement of changes in fair market value. Seasonal
      Solano        $485,000                                                        fluctuations in median sales prices are very common.
United States       $357,900
                    $291,300
   Data per California Association of Realtors: “C.A.R.'s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI). Methodology
   can be found on www.CAR.org, Market Data section. “SF Bay Area includes 9 counties, Napa to Santa Clara.
Percentage of Households Able to Afford Median Priced House
         by San Francisco Bay Area County, Q2 2020 to Q2 2021                                                                Per CAR Housing
                                                                                                                             Affordability Index

 This statistic is calculated using Q2 median house sales                                                                                          46%
 prices, county household income figures, the prevailing
 fixed 30-year         interest rate, assuming a 20%                                            Q2 2020            Q2 2021
 downpayment, and including tax and insurance costs.                                                                                                 40%
                                                                                                                                  37%
 According to the CAR Index, the 4 most expensive
 counties on the left side of the chart saw no or very                                            33%        33%
 small changes in affordability percentages, while more                                                               31%
 affordable counties saw large or very large declines.*
                                                                                    26%                                                26%
                                                                     25%                                                25%
                                                       23%                                             23%     23%
                          22%           22%
                             21%           21%
19%        19%19%
                                                                          18%            18%
   17%
                                                            15%

  San          SF          Santa         Marin          Santa       Monterey Alameda                Napa      CA      Sonoma      Contra           Solano
Mateo                      Clara                         Cruz                                                                      Costa

           Calculation per California Association of Realtors: C.A.R.'s Traditional Housing Affordability
           Index (HAI). Methodology can be found on www.CAR.org, Market Data section.
Estimated Migration of Bay Area Households in 2020

Bay Area County          # Households              # Households                 Change in #          Total # of    % Change in
                        Moving In (2020)          Moving Out (2020)             Households          Households     Households
Alameda                        50,000                     67,000                  - 17,000              577,177      - 2.9%
Contra Costa                   35,000                     32,000                   + 3,000              394,769       + .8%
Marin                           9,050                      7,000                   + 2,050              105,432      + 1.9%
Monterey                        5,400                      5,050                    + 350               127,155       + .3%
Napa                            3,300                      2,550                    + 750                 48,705     + 1.5%
San Francisco                  27,500                     68,000                  - 40,500              362,354       - 11%
San Mateo                      24,000                     34,000                  - 10,000              263,543      - 3.8%
Santa Clara                    42,000                     67,000                  - 25,000              640,215      - 3.9%
Santa Cruz                      6,050                      6,000                    + 50                95,818          -
Solano                         12,000                     10,650                   + 1,350              149,865       + .9%
Sonoma                         10,900                      8,800                   + 2,100              189,374      + 1.1%

Household numbers are estimates extrapolated from The Wall Street Journal article, “Americans Up & Moved During
the Pandemic, based on “permanent, change-of-address filings in 2020. The term “household can signify one or
many persons. The general dynamic in the Bay Area was net out-migration from more urban regions, and net in-
migration into more suburban/rural areas. Of counties seeing negative changes, relocating tenants (paying very high
rents) the newly unemployed, office employees changed to work-from-home, or students at closed universities
were almost certainly the dominant component in out-migration. Trends may change with the opening of offices,
universities, urban amenities. Even in non-pandemic years, significant population movements are normal.

All numbers are approximate. WSJ article published 5/11/21: Methodology/data not validated by Compass.
Other sources have published different conclusions on migration. Total household data per U.S. Census 2019 ACS
survey estimates. Compiled in good faith, but may contain errors, and subject to revision.
Steep U.S. Decline in Foreign National Homebuyers
         Estimated Dollar Volume Sales in Billions, Top 5 Countries                                                             National Association
                                                                                                                                of Realtors estimates

                                                     International Homebuyer Purchases in Billions of Dollars
                                                                                                                                                                              30
                                              2013       2014        2015        2016        2017       2018        2019      2020     2021

                     Years designated reflect estimated sales                                                                                                                 25
                     from April of the previous year through
                     March of the year specified: Purchases by
                     resident and non-resident foreign nationals.

                                                                                                                                                                              20

                                                                                                                                                        Billions of Dollars
                                                                                                                                                                              15

                                                                                                                                                                              10

          | 86% decline,                   | 78% decline,
          2017 - 2021 |                    2017 - 2021 |                    | 60% decline,                   | 69% decline,              | 72% decline,
                                                                            2017 - 2021 |                    2017 - 2021 |               2017 - 2021 |                        5
$12.8

$28.1
$27.3
$31.7
$30.4
$13.4
$11.5

                             $11.8
                             $13.8
                             $11.4

                             $10.5
$4.5

                             $8.9

                             $9.5
                             $4.2

                                                              $3.9
                                                              $5.8
                                                              $7.9
                                                              $6.1
                                                              $7.8
                                                              $7.2
                                                              $6.9
                                                              $5.4
                                                              $3.1

                                                                                               $3.6
                                                                                               $4.5
                                                                                               $4.9
                                                                                               $4.8
                                                                                               $9.3
                                                                                               $4.2
                                                                                               $2.3
                                                                                               $5.8
                                                                                               $2.9

                                                                                                                              $4.2
                                                                                                                              $5.8
                                                                                                                              $3.9
                                                                                                                              $5.5
                                                                                                                              $9.6
                                                                                                                              $7.3
                                                                                                                              $3.8
                                                                                                                              $1.4
                                                                                                                              $2.7
$22

                             $19

                             $8

                                                                                                                                                                              0
      China                           Canada                             India                          Mexico                 United Kingdom
Estimates from the “2021 Profile of International Transactions in U.S. Residential Real Estate published by the National
Association of Realtors in July 2021, based upon a survey of Realtors. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain
errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate, good-faith estimates. China includes the People’s
Republic, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Mortgage Interest Rate Trends, November 2018           Present
        30-Year & 15-Year Conforming Fixed Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings                                        Rates published
                                                                                                                      by the FHLMC

4.75%

4.50%                                30-Year Fixed Rate                            Per Freddie Mac, on August 5, 2021, the
                                                                                   weekly average interest rate for a 30-year
4.25%                                15-Year Fixed Rate                            fixed-rate mortgage was 2.77%, slightly
                                                                                   above its nadir in January (2.65%), and the
4.00%                                                                              15-year rate was at a historic low at 2.1%.

3.75%                                                                              In November 2018, the 30-year rate hit
                                                                                   4.94%, and in 2007, it was 6.3%.
3.50%

3.25%

3.00%

2.75%

2.50%

2.25%

2.00%
        Nov.       Interest rates may fluctuate suddenly and dramatically, and it is very difficult to predict rate                      Aug
        2018       changes. Data from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Anyone interested in residential                      2021
                   home loans should consult with a qualified mortgage professional and their accountant.
Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change, Past 20 Years

                                                              As the economic recovery from the pandemic has
                                                              accelerated, the Consumer Price Index, a
                                                              measurement of inflation, has seen large increases.

Historically, the standard remedy for surging inflation is to raise interest rates, however there are many opinions as
to whether higher-than-normal inflation rates will persist and become a significant economic issue requiring
response by the Federal Reserve Bank in the near future. Predicting interest rate changes is extremely difficult.
Certainly, this is an economic indicator to watch in coming months.
Chart from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, published mid-August 2021:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm.
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
S&P 500 Stock Index, 1995 2021                                                                                                                                                                                                                           S&P +34%, Feb.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2020 July 2021 ► July 30,
                          By Month through July 2021                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ▼
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    4,250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    4,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    3,750
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           S&P 18% drop, Sept. Dec. 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Interest rates +20% in 2018 ► 2018                                                                                       3,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         peak                                                                                       3,250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ▼
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    3,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                           S&P 12% decline, July                                                                                                                    2,750
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2015 Feb. 2016 ► 2015
                                                                                         ◄ Post dotcom & 9/11 low

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 peak                                                                                                               2,500

                                                                                                                                                                           ◄ Post-bubble crash low

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Pandemic crash ►
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ▼                                                                                                                 2,250
                                                          2000                                                                                             2007                                                                                                                                                                                     2,000
                                                          peak                                                                                             peak
                                                                                                                                                            ▼                                                                                                                                                                                       1,750
                                                           ▼                                                                                                                                                                                                            ▲
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mid-2015         Mid-2016                                                                              1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Chinese stock market                                                                                   1,250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             crash; IPO activity crash;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             oil price crash; Brexit                                                                                1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    750
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0
                                                                                                                    1-Jan-04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1-Jan-15
1-Jan-95

           1-Jan-96

                      1-Jan-97

                                 1-Jan-98

                                            1-Jan-99

                                                       1-Jan-00

                                                                  1-Jan-01

                                                                             1-Jan-02

                                                                                        1-Jan-03

                                                                                                                               1-Jan-05

                                                                                                                                          1-Jan-06

                                                                                                                                                     1-Jan-07

                                                                                                                                                                1-Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                                           1-Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                     1-Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                1-Jan-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1-Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1-Jan-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1-Jan-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1-Jan-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1-Jan-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1-Jan-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1-Jan-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1-Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1-Jan-21
                 Data from multpl.com and Yahoo! Finance. An approximate illustration only. Data from sources
                 deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial markets can be prone to
                 significant volatility even on a short-term basis. For general illustration purposes only.
Editable email newsletters in Marketing Center/
Market Data section

Newsletters in Flippingbook format published
monthly

Newsletter pdfs and jpgs (by month, then region):
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1kSMZJP6ZPWnFF2
3ZTrqMMvzzkSjkLjAU?usp=sharing

Market share charts (by region):
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1RX6mZKYdQOwB-
AthmA0_ox43MbFo2RIU?usp=sharing

                                                         Online: https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/

                                                            CAR Mid-Year Forecast:
                                                            https://www.car.org/en/marketdata
                                                            /marketforecast
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens or hundreds of unique,
individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad,
comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in
smaller, expensive market segments. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All
numbers are approximate. Data from MLS, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality,
  n al events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price
for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and
basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are
usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported
altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, bon       rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so
forth. How these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been
prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the
public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or
completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or
implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended
to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All
opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding
any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future
results.
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