Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market
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Marin Sales Meeting, August 24, 2021 Selected Angles on the Market Presented by Patrick Carlisle Compass Chief Market Analyst, Bay Area 1989 2021: agent, sales manager, designated broker, director of training, VP of business development, chief market analyst Pacific Union, Paragon, Compass
1st Half, Dollar-Volume Home Sales House, condo, co-op, townhouse, TIC, halfplex sales reported to NorCal Regional Marin County, Sales Reported to MLS since 2015* MLS, January 1 through June 30 of each year. In the first 6 months of 2021, almost $3.5 billion in home sales were Of Bay Area Counties, Marin County reported to MLS in Marin County, 65% saw the highest percentage increase in above the previous peak in 2018. 2021 over its previous peak in sales. Covid hits in Spring 2020 $1,876,400,000 $1,899,000,000 $1,973,000,000 $2,123,100,000 $2,014,500,000 $1,593,900,000 $3,493,500,000 1st Half 2015 1st Half 2016 1st Half 2017 1st Half 2018 1st Half 2019 1st Half 2020 1st Half 2021 * As reported to NorCal Regional MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and rounded. We estimate, very approximately, that 10% - 12% of sales are not reported to MLS and thus not reflected in this analysis.
New Listing & Sales Volumes, Longer-Term Trends since 2005 Marin County, 12-Month Rolling Data* Updated through July 2021 5,000 4,500 12-month rolling data delivers Highest 12-Month New Listing Volume since 2010 broad, clear, long-term trend lines, but may disguise and Highest 12-Month Sales Volume since 2005 4,000 lag shorter term changes. 3,500 12-Month-Rolling New Listing Volume 12-Month-Rolling Sales Volume 3,000 2,500 ▲ Market recovery begins Pandemic strikes ▲ 2,000 Financial markets crash ▲ The smaller the gap between new listings and sales, the tighter the supply of homes for sale as compared to buyer demand. 1,500 Jul-17 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 * Each data point reflects the total of 12 months of activity for houses, condos, co-ops and townhouses. 1/12 of these numbers = an average month within the 12 month period. Sales reported to MLS, per NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Last month data estimated from data available in early August. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers are approximate.
Marin County Home Price Trends since 2005 Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling 2021 $1,800,000 $1,700,000 Median sales price is that price at which half the $1,600,000 sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. $1,500,000 2018 Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common. $1,400,000 Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes. $1,300,000 $1,200,000 Pandemic hits ▲ $1,100,000 $1,000,000 $900,000 2009 - 2012 $800,000 $700,000 Financial Market Crash ▲ $600,000 Jul-12 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 3-month rolling sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Market Cycles Home Price Increases & Declines, by Percentage, 1984 2021* https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-san-francisco-home-price-nsa-index/#overview Updated through Market Peaks & Bottoms April 2021 Approximate Percentage Changes A simplified, smoothed-out graph* Financial markets crash 2012 4/2021 Per CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller + 143% Aggregate Index for Bay Area Houses Seasonally adjusted. Not adjusted for inflation. 2002 2006/07 + 72% 2007 2011 1995 2001 High-tech boom, - 40% then pandemic 1989 SF + 100% Dotcom earthquake Pop/ 9-11 Subprime - 5% bubble 1984 1990 Approximate % value changes based upon S&P Case- Dotcom + 100% 1991 1994 Shiller Home-Price Index for 5-county metro area boom - 11% (aggregate sales index, seasonally adjusted). Different Junk bond price segments were affected very differently in the boom scale of their subprime bubbles and resulting crashes. 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 * The years between market peaks and bottoms are not accurately represented, but entered as straight lines between high and low points to illustrate percentage changes over time. Shorter-term fluctuations are not reflected on this chart. All numbers are very approximate and subject to revision.
Percentage of Off-MLS Sales by Price Segment House, condo, townhouse, sales reported to NorCal Regional Marin County, Sales Reported to MLS, 2021 YTD MLS, 1/1/21 8/10/21 40% 11% of Marin County home sales reported to MLS were marketed off-MLS. As the sales 35% price increased, the percentage of sales occurring off-MLS soared. 30% Of off-MLS sales of $5 million & above, 43% were listed by Compass agents. 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 8% 15% 18% 32% 42% 0% Under $2,000,000 $2,000,000 - $3,000,000 - $5,000,000 - $8,000,000+ $2,999,999 $4,999,999 $7,999,999 * As reported to NorCal Regional MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all off-MLS sales are reported to MLS.
New Listings Coming on Market Marin County Market Dynamics & Seasonality by Month May Oct. 2018 2020 May Sept. June 2019 2019 June 2021 350 2020 300 Feb. 250 2020 Mid- 200 Mid- Summer Summer 150 The ebb and flow of new listings coming on market is deeply affected by market seasonality. 100 Pandemic Hits December 50 December December 0 Nov-20 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Apr-21 Jul-21 Jun-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Oct-18 Jun-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Sep-20 Feb-21 Oct-20 Jun-21 May-18 May-21 Jan-18 Dec-18 May-19 Jan-19 Dec-19 May-20 Jan-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Mar-18 Aug-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Mar-20 Aug-20 Mar-21 Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Active Listings on Market Marin County Real Estate Market Dynamics & Seasonality For houses and condos June 2019 Oct. 600 2018 June May 2018 June Oct. 500 2017 2020 2020 Pandemic hits 400 July 2021 300 200 This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be expected on any given day of the specified month. This number 100 is affected by 2 major dynamics: 1) how many new listings come on market, and 2) how quickly buyers snap them up. 0 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Sep-17 Nov-17 Sep-18 Nov-18 Sep-19 Nov-19 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 May-19 Mar-20 May-20 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 Jan-20 Mar-21 May-21 Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Marin County Short-Term Market Dynamics & Seasonality Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract) by Month Houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses as listed in MLS Typically, market activity ebbs and flows by season, though the pandemic upended normal trends in 2020. In summer 2021, activity began to decline July (a little) from spring peaks, an apparent reversion to seasonal norms 2020 Spring October 400 though activity remained much higher than in pre-pandemic summers. 2020 2021 May 350 May 2019 2018 June- 300 October Fires July 2019 2021 250 Summer Summer 2019 200 December - January 150 100 December December - January Pandemic - January hits 50 0 Nov-19 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jun-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jun-19 Sep-19 May-20 Nov-20 Apr-21 Jul-21 Jun-20 Sep-20 Jun-21 May-18 Jan-18 Dec-18 May-19 Jan-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Dec-20 May-21 Jan-21 Mar-18 Aug-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Mar-20 Aug-20 Mar-21 As reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Does not include activity unreported to MLS. Last month’s number estimated from data available in early August. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) Marin County Real Estate Market since 2011 Based upon accepted-offer activity for Marin houses, condos and townhouses reported to Bareis MLS per Broker Metrics 5 4.5 MSI = the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current rates of market activity. 4 Fluctuations occur due to market Market recovery begins in conditions (demand vs. supply) and typical 3.5 market seasonality. Pandemic hits 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Spring 2018 0.5 Spring 2021 0 Jul-21 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Late reported activity may alter last month’s reading.
Price Reductions on Active Listings Marin County Real Estate Market Dynamics For houses and condos Sept. Oct. 2019 2018 250 June The number of price reductions 2019 remains far below seasonal norms, 225 another indication of a market characterized by extremely high 200 demand. 175 Sept. 2017 June 2018 Oct. 150 June 2020 2017 June 2020 125 Pandemic hits 100 May-July 2021 75 50 25 0 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Sep-17 Nov-17 Sep-18 Nov-18 Sep-19 Nov-19 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 May-17 May-18 May-19 Mar-20 May-20 Jan-17 Mar-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 Jan-20 Mar-21 May-21 Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, activity on website. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Luxury Homes Listings Accepting Offers by Month Marin County: Homes Priced $3,000,000+ Going into Contract Residential listings posted in MLS, per Infosparks Short-Term Trends By Month May 2021 Typically, luxury market activity ebbs and flows by July-Aug. season, peaking in spring, hitting its nadir in mid-winter, 2020 though the pandemic upended normal trends in 2020. In 50 summer 2021, activity declined from spring peaks, an Oct. 2020 apparent reversion to seasonal norms though activity was much higher than in typical summers (2018, 2019) 40 June- May July Fires May 2019 2021 2018 30 Sept. 2018 Oct. 2019 20 January Summer July 10 Winter ▲ Pandemic hits Winter 0 Jul-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Aug-18 Nov-18 Jul-19 Oct-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Jul-20 Oct-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Jul-21 Feb-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jan-18 May-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Jun-21 House, condo, co-op, townhouse activity reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Does not include activity unreported to MLS. Last month’s number estimated from data available in early August. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Year-over-Year Median House Sales Price Increases by Bay Area County, Q2 2021 vs. Q2 2020 Per CAR Housing Affordability Index calculations San Mateo $2,117,500 $1,700,000 San Francisco $1,900,000 $1,710,000 Santa Clara $1,699,500 $1,380,000 Marin $1,650,000 $1,460,000 SF Bay Area $1,345,000 $989,000 Alameda $1,300,000 Q2 2021 $990,000 Santa Cruz $1,250,000 Q2 2020 $905,000 Contra Costa $1,000,000 $725,000 Napa $905,000 $720,000 $860,000 Median price is that price at which half the sales Monterey $680,000 occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general $817,950 statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of California $611,000 sales prices in the individual underlying sales. It may $795,000 fluctuate for reasons other than changes in fair market Sonoma $680,000 value, and should not be considered an exact $570,000 measurement of changes in fair market value. Seasonal Solano $485,000 fluctuations in median sales prices are very common. United States $357,900 $291,300 Data per California Association of Realtors: “C.A.R.'s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI). Methodology can be found on www.CAR.org, Market Data section. “SF Bay Area includes 9 counties, Napa to Santa Clara.
Percentage of Households Able to Afford Median Priced House by San Francisco Bay Area County, Q2 2020 to Q2 2021 Per CAR Housing Affordability Index This statistic is calculated using Q2 median house sales 46% prices, county household income figures, the prevailing fixed 30-year interest rate, assuming a 20% Q2 2020 Q2 2021 downpayment, and including tax and insurance costs. 40% 37% According to the CAR Index, the 4 most expensive counties on the left side of the chart saw no or very 33% 33% small changes in affordability percentages, while more 31% affordable counties saw large or very large declines.* 26% 26% 25% 25% 23% 23% 23% 22% 22% 21% 21% 19% 19%19% 18% 18% 17% 15% San SF Santa Marin Santa Monterey Alameda Napa CA Sonoma Contra Solano Mateo Clara Cruz Costa Calculation per California Association of Realtors: C.A.R.'s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI). Methodology can be found on www.CAR.org, Market Data section.
Estimated Migration of Bay Area Households in 2020 Bay Area County # Households # Households Change in # Total # of % Change in Moving In (2020) Moving Out (2020) Households Households Households Alameda 50,000 67,000 - 17,000 577,177 - 2.9% Contra Costa 35,000 32,000 + 3,000 394,769 + .8% Marin 9,050 7,000 + 2,050 105,432 + 1.9% Monterey 5,400 5,050 + 350 127,155 + .3% Napa 3,300 2,550 + 750 48,705 + 1.5% San Francisco 27,500 68,000 - 40,500 362,354 - 11% San Mateo 24,000 34,000 - 10,000 263,543 - 3.8% Santa Clara 42,000 67,000 - 25,000 640,215 - 3.9% Santa Cruz 6,050 6,000 + 50 95,818 - Solano 12,000 10,650 + 1,350 149,865 + .9% Sonoma 10,900 8,800 + 2,100 189,374 + 1.1% Household numbers are estimates extrapolated from The Wall Street Journal article, “Americans Up & Moved During the Pandemic, based on “permanent, change-of-address filings in 2020. The term “household can signify one or many persons. The general dynamic in the Bay Area was net out-migration from more urban regions, and net in- migration into more suburban/rural areas. Of counties seeing negative changes, relocating tenants (paying very high rents) the newly unemployed, office employees changed to work-from-home, or students at closed universities were almost certainly the dominant component in out-migration. Trends may change with the opening of offices, universities, urban amenities. Even in non-pandemic years, significant population movements are normal. All numbers are approximate. WSJ article published 5/11/21: Methodology/data not validated by Compass. Other sources have published different conclusions on migration. Total household data per U.S. Census 2019 ACS survey estimates. Compiled in good faith, but may contain errors, and subject to revision.
Steep U.S. Decline in Foreign National Homebuyers Estimated Dollar Volume Sales in Billions, Top 5 Countries National Association of Realtors estimates International Homebuyer Purchases in Billions of Dollars 30 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Years designated reflect estimated sales 25 from April of the previous year through March of the year specified: Purchases by resident and non-resident foreign nationals. 20 Billions of Dollars 15 10 | 86% decline, | 78% decline, 2017 - 2021 | 2017 - 2021 | | 60% decline, | 69% decline, | 72% decline, 2017 - 2021 | 2017 - 2021 | 2017 - 2021 | 5 $12.8 $28.1 $27.3 $31.7 $30.4 $13.4 $11.5 $11.8 $13.8 $11.4 $10.5 $4.5 $8.9 $9.5 $4.2 $3.9 $5.8 $7.9 $6.1 $7.8 $7.2 $6.9 $5.4 $3.1 $3.6 $4.5 $4.9 $4.8 $9.3 $4.2 $2.3 $5.8 $2.9 $4.2 $5.8 $3.9 $5.5 $9.6 $7.3 $3.8 $1.4 $2.7 $22 $19 $8 0 China Canada India Mexico United Kingdom Estimates from the “2021 Profile of International Transactions in U.S. Residential Real Estate published by the National Association of Realtors in July 2021, based upon a survey of Realtors. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate, good-faith estimates. China includes the People’s Republic, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Mortgage Interest Rate Trends, November 2018 Present 30-Year & 15-Year Conforming Fixed Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings Rates published by the FHLMC 4.75% 4.50% 30-Year Fixed Rate Per Freddie Mac, on August 5, 2021, the weekly average interest rate for a 30-year 4.25% 15-Year Fixed Rate fixed-rate mortgage was 2.77%, slightly above its nadir in January (2.65%), and the 4.00% 15-year rate was at a historic low at 2.1%. 3.75% In November 2018, the 30-year rate hit 4.94%, and in 2007, it was 6.3%. 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% Nov. Interest rates may fluctuate suddenly and dramatically, and it is very difficult to predict rate Aug 2018 changes. Data from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Anyone interested in residential 2021 home loans should consult with a qualified mortgage professional and their accountant.
Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change, Past 20 Years As the economic recovery from the pandemic has accelerated, the Consumer Price Index, a measurement of inflation, has seen large increases. Historically, the standard remedy for surging inflation is to raise interest rates, however there are many opinions as to whether higher-than-normal inflation rates will persist and become a significant economic issue requiring response by the Federal Reserve Bank in the near future. Predicting interest rate changes is extremely difficult. Certainly, this is an economic indicator to watch in coming months. Chart from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, published mid-August 2021: https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
S&P 500 Stock Index, 1995 2021 S&P +34%, Feb. 2020 July 2021 ► July 30, By Month through July 2021 2021 ▼ 4,250 4,000 3,750 S&P 18% drop, Sept. Dec. 2018 Interest rates +20% in 2018 ► 2018 3,500 peak 3,250 ▼ 3,000 S&P 12% decline, July 2,750 2015 Feb. 2016 ► 2015 ◄ Post dotcom & 9/11 low peak 2,500 ◄ Post-bubble crash low Pandemic crash ► ▼ 2,250 2000 2007 2,000 peak peak ▼ 1,750 ▼ ▲ Mid-2015 Mid-2016 1,500 Chinese stock market 1,250 crash; IPO activity crash; oil price crash; Brexit 1,000 750 500 250 0 1-Jan-04 1-Jan-15 1-Jan-95 1-Jan-96 1-Jan-97 1-Jan-98 1-Jan-99 1-Jan-00 1-Jan-01 1-Jan-02 1-Jan-03 1-Jan-05 1-Jan-06 1-Jan-07 1-Jan-08 1-Jan-09 1-Jan-10 1-Jan-11 1-Jan-12 1-Jan-13 1-Jan-14 1-Jan-16 1-Jan-17 1-Jan-18 1-Jan-19 1-Jan-20 1-Jan-21 Data from multpl.com and Yahoo! Finance. An approximate illustration only. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial markets can be prone to significant volatility even on a short-term basis. For general illustration purposes only.
Editable email newsletters in Marketing Center/ Market Data section Newsletters in Flippingbook format published monthly Newsletter pdfs and jpgs (by month, then region): https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1kSMZJP6ZPWnFF2 3ZTrqMMvzzkSjkLjAU?usp=sharing Market share charts (by region): https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1RX6mZKYdQOwB- AthmA0_ox43MbFo2RIU?usp=sharing Online: https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/ CAR Mid-Year Forecast: https://www.car.org/en/marketdata /marketforecast
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens or hundreds of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Data from MLS, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS. Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, n al events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales. Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, bon rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so forth. How these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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