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VOL. 98 • NO. 7 • JUL 2017

Earth & Space Science News

MAGNETIC
MAPPING
BY BIKE

                                     Plague’s Link
                                     to Past Climate

                                     Lava Balloons

                                     Typhoon-Tossed
                                     Data Buoys
MAGNETIC MAPPING BY BIKE - Plague's Link to Past Climate Lava Balloons Typhoon-Tossed Data Buoys - Eos.org
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MAGNETIC MAPPING BY BIKE - Plague's Link to Past Climate Lava Balloons Typhoon-Tossed Data Buoys - Eos.org
Earth & Space Science News                                                                              Contents

JULY 2017
                                                                                         PROJECT UPDATE
VOLUME 98, ISSUE 7

                                                                                                                            12
                                                                                       Understanding Kamchatka’s
                                                                                       Extraordinary Volcano Cluster
                                                                                       An international seismological
                                                                                       collaboration in Kamchatka, Russia,
                                                                                       investigates the driving forces of one of
                                                                                       the world’s largest, most active volcano
                                                                                       clusters.

                                                                                         PROJECT UPDATE

                                                                                                                            24
                                                                                       New Data Buoys Watch
                                                                                       Typhoons from Within the Storm
                                                                                       Advanced real-time data buoys have
                                                                                       observed nine strong typhoons in the
                                                                                       northwestern Pacific Ocean since 2015,
                                                                                       providing high-resolution data and
                                                                                       reducing the uncertainty of numerical

                                                                               18      model forecasts.

                                                                                         RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT

  COVER

A Bike Built for Magnetic Mapping
                                                                                       40     How Arctic Ice Affects
                                                                                              Gas Exchange Between
                                                                                       Air and Sea
Mounting a magnetic sensor on a bicycle offers an efficient, low-cost method of        Scientists begin to fill a major data gap by
collecting ground magnetic field data over rough terrain where conventional vehicles   investigating carbon dioxide dynamics in a
dare not venture.                                                                      remote region of the Arctic Ocean.

Earth & Space Science News                                                                                              Eos.org // 1
MAGNETIC MAPPING BY BIKE - Plague's Link to Past Climate Lava Balloons Typhoon-Tossed Data Buoys - Eos.org
Contents

  DEPARTMENTS
                                                                                          Editor in Chief
                                                                                          Barbara T. Richman: AGU, Washington, D. C., USA; eos_ brichman@agu.org
                                                                                          Editors
                                                                                          Christina M. S. Cohen         Wendy S. Gordon                Carol A. Stein
                                                                                          California Institute          Ecologia Consulting,           Department of Earth and
                                                                                          of Technology, Pasadena,      Austin, Texas, USA;            Environmental Sciences,
                                                                                          Calif., USA;                  wendy@ecologiaconsulting​      University of Illinois at
                                                                                          cohen@srl​.caltech.edu        .com                           Chicago, Chicago, Ill.,
                                                                                          José D. Fuentes               David Halpern                  USA; cstein@uic.edu
                                                                                          Department of Meteorology,    Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
                                                                                          Pennsylvania State            Pasadena, Calif., USA;
                                                                                          University, University        davidhalpern29@gmail​
                                                                                          Park, Pa., USA;               .com
                                                                                          juf15@meteo.psu.edu

                                                                                          Editorial Advisory Board
                                                                                          Mark G. Flanner, Atmospheric Sciences          Jian Lin, Tectonophysics
                                                                                          Nicola J. Fox, Space Physics                   Figen Mekik, Paleoceanography
                                                                                          and Aeronomy                                   and Paleoclimatology

                                                                         10
                                                                                          Peter Fox, Earth and Space Science             Jerry L. Miller, Ocean Sciences
                                                                                          Informatics                                    Thomas H. Painter, Cryosphere
                                                                                          Steve Frolking, Biogeosciences                 Sciences
                                                                                          Edward J. Garnero, Study of the                Philip J. Rasch, Global Environmental
                                                                                          Earth’s Deep Interior                          Change
                                            28–38 AGU News                                Michael N. Gooseff, Hydrology
                                                                                          Brian C. Gunter, Geodesy
                                                                                                                                         Eric M. Riggs, Education
                                                                                                                                         Adrian Tuck, Nonlinear Geophysics
                                            In Appreciation of AGU’s                      Kristine C. Harper, History of Geophysics      Sergio Vinciguerra, Mineral
                                                                                          Susan E. Hough, Natural Hazards                and Rock Physics
                                            Outstanding Reviewers of 2016;                Emily R. Johnson, Volcanology,                 Andrew C. Wilcox, Earth and Planetary
                                            Scientists’ Freedom to Work Entails           Geochemistry, and Petrology                    Surface Processes
                                            Responsibilities to Society.                  Keith D. Koper, Seismology                     Earle Williams, Atmospheric
                                                                                          Robert E. Kopp, Geomagnetism                   and Space Electricity
                                                                                          and Paleomagnetism                             Mary Lou Zoback, Societal Impacts
                                                                                          John W. Lane, Near-Surface Geophysics          and Policy Sciences
                                            39–42 Research Spotlight
                                                                                          Staff
                                            Water Quality Database Offers New
                                                                                          Production and Design: Faith A. Ishii, Production Manager; Melissa A. Tribur, Senior
                                            Tools to Study Aquatic Systems;               Production Specialist; Elizabeth Thompson, Production and Editorial Assistant; Travis
                                            What Led to the Largest Volcanic              Frazier and Valerie Friedman, Electronic Graphics Specialists
                                            Eruption in Human History?; How               Editorial: Peter L. Weiss, Manager/Senior News Editor; Mohi Kumar, Scientific
                                                                                          Content Editor; Randy Showstack, Senior News Writer; JoAnna Wendel, News Writer;
                                            Arctic Ice Affects Gas Exchange               Liz Castenson, Editorial and Production Coordinator
                                            Between Air and Sea; Global                   Marketing: Jamie R. Liu, Manager, Marketing; Angelo Bouselli and Tyjen Conley,
                              42            Drought Clustering Could Mean Big             Marketing Program Managers; Ashwini Yelamanchili, Digital Marketing Coordinator
                                                                                          Advertising: Tracy LaMondue, Director, Development; Tel: +1-202-777-7372;
                                            Losses for Mining; Stream Network
                                                                                          Email: advertising@agu.org
                                            Geometry Correlates with Climate;
                                                                                          ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Material in this issue may
                                            Alteration Along the Alpine Fault
3–8 News                                                                                  be photocopied by individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permission
                                            Helps Build Seismic Strain.                   is also granted to use short quotes, figures, and tables for publication in scientific
Tornado Casualties Depend More on                                                         books and journals. For permission for any other uses, contact the AGU Publications
Storm Energy Than on Population;                                                          Office.
Between Outbreaks, Did Plague
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9 Meeting Report                                                                          Views expressed in this publication do not
Predictive Capability for Extreme                                                         necessarily reflect official positions of the American
                                            On the Cover                                  Geophysical Union unless expressly stated.
Space Weather Events.
                                            A scientist collects geomagnetic              Christine W. McEntee, Executive Director/CEO
                                            readings across Israel’s Bet She’an
10–11 Opinion                               basin using a specially equipped
Acquiring a Taste for Advocacy.             bicycle.

    facebook.com/AmericanGeophysicalUnion         @AGU_Eos            linkedin.com/company/american-geophysical-union                              youtube.com/user/AGUvideos

2 // Eos                                                                                                                                                             July 2017
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NEWS

Tornado Casualties Depend More                                                                                               Fear Becomes an Obsession
                                                                                                                             Tyler Fricker grew up hearing his father’s

on Storm Energy Than on Population                                                                                           stories of the 1974 Xenia, Ohio, tornado that
                                                                                                                             killed 33 people and injured more than 1000
                                                                                                                             others. Fricker, now a geographer at Florida
                                                                                                                             State University in Tallahassee and the lead
                                                                                                                             author of the new study, has also lived
                                                                                                                             through a few tornadoes of his own. He
                                                                                                                             explains his fascination with tornadoes as
                                                                                                                             “fear becoming an obsession.”
                                                                                                                                In the new research, he and his colleagues
                                                                                                                             analyzed 872 c ­ asualty-​­causing tornadoes that
                                                                                                                             swept through parts of the United States
                                                                                                                             between 2007 and 2015. They defined “casu-
                                                                                                                             alty” as a death or an injury related to a
                                                                                                                             storm. “By understanding tornado behavior
                                                                                                                             better…we get a deeper understanding of
                                                                                                                             what may be causing the death and destruc-
                                                                                                                             tion we see in these storms,” Fricker said.
                                                                                                                                The team borrowed a principle of econom-
                                                                                                                             ics known as elasticity to investigate how a
                                                                                                                             tornado’s casualty toll scaled with its energy
                                                                                                                             and the size of the nearby population. Elas-
                                                                                                                             ticity is commonly used by economists to
                                                                                                                             investigate how two measurements—for
                                                                                                                             example, supply and demand—are related.
                                                                                                                                The researchers used National Weather Ser-
                                                                                                                             vice data to determine the energy dissipated by
                                                                                                                             a tornado. They calculated this energy as pro-
                                                                                                                             portional to the area of a tornado’s path multi-
                                                                                                                             plied by its average wind speed raised to the
                                                                                                                             third power. Knowing this quantity for each
                                                                                                                             tornado allowed the team to uniformly define
                                                                                                                             the intensity of each storm. The researchers
                                                                                                                             then collected population measurements in
                                                                                                                             roughly 1-­kilometer by 1-­kilometer squares for
A scene of destruction in Concord, Ala., after the 2011 T
                                                        ­ uscaloosa–​­Birmingham tornado, which caused more than 1500        the path of each tornado using a database of
casualties. A new study indicates that storm intensity is a better predictor of casualty counts than the size of the local   world population maintained by Columbia
population. Credit: National Weather Service                                                                                 University in New York.

                                                                                                                             Predicting Casualties

W
           hen a dark, swirling funnel cloud                   Now, in a new study, researchers have used a                  Armed with these two parameters and the
           dips toward the ground, people liv-                 principle of economics to show that a torna-                  published casualty counts for each of the tor-
           ing in a U.S. region in and near the                do’s casualty count depends more strongly                     nadoes in their sample, Fricker and his col-
Great Plains popularly known as Tornado Alley                  on the energy of the storm than on the size                   leagues investigated how casualties scaled
know to move to a safe spot. Tornadoes can                     of the local population.                                      with storm energy and the size of the nearby
destroy concrete buildings and send railcars                      This work is “likely to spur conversation                  population. The scientists found that storm
rolling, and these violent wind-                                                                                                           energy was a better predictor of
storms account for roughly 20% of              “By understanding tornado behavior                                                          the number of s         ­ torm-r​­ elated
natural hazard–related deaths in                                                                                                           injuries and deaths: Doubling the
the United States.                             better…we get a deeper understanding                                                        energy of a tornado resulted in
   Despite tornadoes’ danger,                                                                                                              33% more casualties, but dou-
the correlations among the
                                               of what may be causing the death and                                                        bling the population of a
number of ­storm-​­related casual-             destruction we see in these storms.”                                                        t­ ornado-p      ​­ rone area resulted in
ties, a twister’s energy, and the                                                                                                           only 21% more casualties. These
size of the population in its path                                                                                                          results, which the team reported
are not well understood. Better                                                                                                             in April in Geophysical Research
understanding of those relationships could                     and additional research,” said Todd Moore, a                  Letters (­http://​­bit​.­ly/​­GRL​-­tornado), can
help scientists, policy makers, and emer-                      physical geographer at Towson University in                   inform emergency planning, the team sug-
gency management personnel predict future                      Towson, Md., who was not involved in the                      gests.
tornado deaths and injuries based on trends                    study. “It provides a framework that can be                      The relatively larger impact of tornado
in population growth and tornado activity.                     modified to include additional risk variables.”               energy on casualties might be cause for con-

Earth & Space Science News                                                                                                                                           Eos.org // 3
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NEWS

cern, Fricker and his colleagues note. If cli-
mate change is triggering more powerful tor-         Between Outbreaks, Did Plague Lurk
nadoes, an idea that’s been suggested and
debated, emergency managers might have to            in Medieval England?
contend with larger casualty counts in the
future. But scientists are by no means certain
that larger tornadoes are anticipated. “There
is no doubt climate change is influencing
hazards, but for tornadoes, we just simply
don’t know to what extent yet,” said Stephen
Strader, a geographer at Villanova University
in Villanova, Pa., who was not involved in the
study.
   It is “far more likely” that the population,
rather than the tornado energy, will double in
the future, notes Victor Gensini, a meteorolo-
gist at the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn,
Ill., who also was not involved in the study.
Effective communication and good city plan-
ning might help reduce ­storm-​­related casual-
ties, Fricker and colleagues suggest. “It’s
hard to control the behavior of tornadoes, but
it’s somewhat within our control to smartly
advance how we organize cities and suburbs,”
said Fricker.

“You might have only
10 or 15 minutes to
get to a safe spot.”

Many More Factors
Of course, changes in storm energy and popu-         Dead carts, such as the one depicted in this antique engraving, were used in London to collect corpses during the last
lation can’t fully explain all variations in         major bubonic plague epidemic in England, from 1665 to 1666. Credit: iStock.com/duncan1890
­storm-​­related deaths or injuries. “There are
 also more factors that combine to determine a

                                                     R
 casualty, one of the most important being                   esearchers of the bubonic plague, also               Austria. Her findings (­http://​­bit​.­ly/​EGU​
 what type of structure a person is in when the              known as the Black Death, have long                  -­plague) suggest that the bacterium lingered
 tornado strikes,” said Gensini.                             debated why the disease broke out                    silently in rodents during periods between
    Fricker said that he and his colleagues look     repeatedly in medieval Europe: Did traders                   plague ­flare-​­ups, only to threaten humans
 forward to examining factors such as how a          from elsewhere bring the dreaded pestilence                  again when the rodent population exploded.
 victim’s age, socioeconomic status, and race        with them from infected areas, thus sparking
 might correlate with vulnerability to harm          new epidemics? Or was the Yersinia pestis bac-               Rediscovering Past Climate
 from a tornado. “Maybe we’ll be able to profile     terium, now known to cause the plague, pres-                 A climate historian, Pribyl reconstructed
 communities more susceptible to casualties          ent but for some reason inactive during the                  English climate between 1256 and 1431 using
 based on all of these other determinants,” he       5 to 12 years that typically passed between                  indirect evidence, for example, the date of the
 said.                                               outbreaks?                                                   start of the grain harvest. She wondered
    The team hopes that their findings will be          Now a researcher has found a pattern of                   whether she might discover in these data the
 useful to emergency personnel, who could tar-       recurrence by looking at ancient records of the              influences that triggered plague epidemics or
 get these most vulnerable populations when          Black Death and climatic conditions in what                  quelled them. She realized that she needed to
 they disseminate information about tornado          today is an eastern region of England called                 extend her climate record to the end of the
 preparedness, for example. After all, “you          East Anglia. “It looks like, after a run of 1, 2, or         15th century, when public health measures
 might have only 10 or 15 minutes to get to a        3 years of relatively average or slightly cool               such as quarantining were introduced, which
 safe spot,” said Fricker.                           summers, once there is a jump to warm and                    confined outbreaks and lowered their impact.
                                                     dry weather, there is a large likelihood” of a                  Pribyl found the data she needed in the
                                                     plague epidemic, said Kathleen Pribyl of the                 work of a Dutch independent climate histo-
By Katherine Kornei (email: hobbies4kk@​­gmail​      University of East Anglia in Norwich, U.K., in               rian, Jan Buisman, who has been compiling
.­com; @­katherinekornei), Freelance Science Jour-   April during the General Assembly of the                     reports on weather phenomena and climate in
nalist                                               European Geosciences Union in Vienna,                        the Low Countries, the coastal region now

4 // Eos                                                                                                                                                        July 2017
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NEWS

occupied mostly by the Netherlands and Bel-                                                                             ton, Ont., Canada, who did not participate in
gium. This area, lying only 200 kilometers east                                                                         Pribyl’s study, told Eos that he found Pribyl’s
of East Anglia across a stretch of the North                                                                            conclusion that the plague did not enter
Sea, was close enough for its weather records                                                                           Europe again and again but resided in a
to be suitable to supplement the English data,                                                                          rodent reservoir “convincing and interest-
Pribyl told Eos. Buisman’s records date from as                                                                         ing.” Poinar took part in an investigation of
early as 764 C.E.                                                                                                       the genome of a strain of Yersinia pestis that
   With a sufficiently long temperature record                                                                          was found in Marseille, France, in the teeth of
thus established and with data on rainfall                                                                              buried victims of one of the last outbreaks in
readily available via tree ring sequences, Pribyl                                                                       Europe, in 1722. Last year, his group reported
could characterize each year: Was the winter                                                                            that this strain had descended from bacteria
cold or not? Was the summer cool, warm, dry,                                                                            identified in 14th-​­century victims in London.
wet? At first, just like researchers before her,                                                                        So genetics, too, points at the plague emerg-
she saw no particular circumstances that                                                                                ing repeatedly from a reservoir in or near
would coincide with a plague outbreak. But                                                                              Europe, Poinar said.
that changed when she grouped summers not                                                                                  Could the source of the repeated English
by their temperature but by the difference in                                                                           outbreaks have been in England itself, and
average temperature from the preceding sum-                 A scanning electron micrograph shows the bubonic            could the field voles that Pribyl suspects
mer. If a warm summer followed a normal                     plague bacterium Yersinia pestis (yellow green) infesting   indeed have been the reservoir? It’s quite pos-
one, then a plague outbreak was much more                   the digestive tract of a flea. Credit: NIAID, CC BY 2.0     sible, Poinar said. “All these small, ­human-​
likely, she found.                                          (­http://­bit.ly/ccby2-0)                                   a
                                                                                                                        ­ ssociated rodents could be important. All
   This pattern, according to Pribyl, shows that                                                                        these should be tested. If she has samples,
it was not repeated arrivals from outside                                                                               we’d be happy to test them!” he said.
England that made the plague return again                   leagues analyzed a data set of 7711 plague out-
and again but the waxing and waning of the                  breaks in Europe and compared them to pre-
population of some host animal. Knowing the                 cipitation records from tree ring samples from              By Bas den Hond (email: bas@​­stellarstories​.­com),
preference of Yersinia pestis, it was likely a              Europe and Asia. Weather conditions that                    Freelance Science Journalist
rodent, she explained.                                      might have caused
                                                            rodent numbers to
Vole Toll                                                   spike, they reported,
In England, the field vole and the common                   generally did not
vole are likely candidates to have played the               coincide with out-
role of plague reservoirs, and these species                breaks. They con-
have naturally fluctuating population sizes. A              cluded that most
normal year or, better yet, a few normal years,             outbreaks of the
followed by a warm year, said Pribyl, is just               plague must have
what sets up the population structure, the                  been caused by
food situation, and the number of predators                 renewed introduction
for a population explosion. This increase will,             of Yersinia pestis from
in turn, bring these rodents, and the fleas they            Asia, brought into
carry, into closer contact with humans than in              Europe by rats on
normal times, “especially after the population              merchant ships.
collapses again, which always happens at                       Pribyl, however,
some point,” she said. “Because then the fleas              questions that
will try to move to other hosts, and humans                 research team’s
are as good as anything else. And that’s when               analysis. “They
transference of the disease becomes quite                   looked at climate
likely.”                                                    fluctuations for the
   Other signs from climate data also point to              whole of Europe and
rodents as the reservoir. A slightly cold winter            expected to find one
seems to have helped the plague: More snow                  kind of pattern. But
would have insulated and hid the voles’ bur-                that’s actually quite
rows. But outbreaks almost never occurred                   unlikely. With my
after a very cold winter, which would have                  data, I could look at
killed a lot of voles, or a very mild one, when             just one region,” she
abundant rain would have flooded many bur-                  noted.
rows.
                                                            Genes, Too
Imported Outbreaks?                                         Hendrik Poinar, an
In an earlier study (­http://​­bit​.­ly/​­pnas​-­plague),   evolutionary biolo-
Boris Schmid, an evolutionary biologist at the              gist at McMaster
University of Oslo in Norway, and his col-                  University in Hamil-

Earth & Space Science News                                                                                                                                    Eos.org // 5
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New Technique Reveals                                                                                             wanted to somehow enter the glacier,” said
                                                                                                                  Jouvet. For that, the researchers turned to

Iceberg Calving Process                                                                                           modeling.

                                                                                                                  Hundreds of Artificial Glaciers
                                                                                                                      Members of the research team, which
                                                                                                                      included scientists from ETH Zurich and

W
              alking near the end of a massive             there by some of the same researchers using                Hokkaido University in Sapporo, Japan, sim-
              tongue of glacial ice rising hundreds        automatic cameras, GPS measurements, and                   ulated on a computer more than 100 versions
              of meters above the sea, a group of          ­ice-​­penetrating radar. This time, however, the          of the terminus of Bowdoin Glacier, each
scientists spotted an unexpected and ominous                  scientists brought with them a piece of tech-           characterized by different internal properties
sign. About 100 meters from the edge of the                   nology that’s becoming popular in geophysics            such as bedrock topography, friction between
glacier was a crack a few meters wide. The                    research: a UAV.                                        bedrock and ice, and ice stiffness. They also
crack was fresh—there had been no sign of it                     Team members mounted a camera on the                 modeled whether, at the time of the 16 July
the day before. “We decided we wouldn’t walk                ­battery-​­powered craft. Then, on 11 July, after         second flight, the crack might have been par-
farther,” said Guillaume Jouvet, a glaciologist               overcoming reliability issues with the UAV’s            tially filled with water, a condition that would
at ETH Zurich in Switzerland.                                 compass related to the nearby North Pole,               have widened it more than had it been empty.
   He and his colleagues were on a 2015 expe-                 they guided the craft over the terminus of                  By comparing the properties of these arti-
dition to Bowdoin Glacier in northwestern                     Bowdoin Glacier.                                        ficial glaciers with the actual surface features
Greenland for the express purpose of                                                                                            of Bowdoin Glacier, the team found a
deepening scientists’ understanding                                                                                             best fit model indicating that the
of when, how, and why such fissures                                                                                             crack was water filled and 175 meters
form. But the fissures were just a                                                                                              deep, roughly two thirds of the total
means to an end; the team was out to                                                                                            thickness of the glacier. “The fractur-
piece together the series of events                                                                                             ing process was quite advanced” by
from the start of a crack to the                                                                                                then, said Jouvet.
moment when an iceberg breaks free                                                                                                  He and his colleagues didn’t
at the glacial front.                                                                                                           attempt to predict exactly when Bow-
   The international team of research-                                                                                          doin Glacier’s massive iceberg would
ers, including Jouvet, led by glaciolo-                                                                                         detach. That happened on 27 July,
gist Martin Funk, also of ETH Zurich,                                                                                           about a week after the researchers
recently reported in The Cryosphere                                                                                             had left Greenland. A roughly
(­http://​­bit​.­ly/​­bowdoin​-­calving) that                                                                                   ­1-­kilometer-​­long section of the gla-
they used images collected by an                                                                                                 cier calved off as an iceberg, which
unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to                                                                                                 then broke apart in the water. “Fish-
model how ice fractures propagated in          A large crack splits the ice about 100 meters from the face of Bowdoin Gla-       ermen saw a lot of icebergs coming
this glacier, which is about half the          cier in Greenland. Credit: Julien Seguinot, ETH Zurich                            from Bowdoin Fjord” that day, Jouvet
area of Manhattan Island. The crack                                                                                              noted.
resulted in a ­1-​­kilometer-​­long iceberg                                                                                         He added that the team’s technique
breaking away from the front of the glacier.                     The camera snapped roughly 1000 overlap-             of modeling ice fractures could “absolutely”
Combining observations of visible ice frac-                   ping photographs during the ­30-​­minute                be applied in more places than just Greenland.
tures with modeling of a glacier’s interior, as               flight. The researchers then used computer              For instance, the method could be used to
the team has done, is a powerful technique for                software to construct a ­three-​­dimensional            infer the properties of the enormous crack
better understanding, and potentially predict-                model of the glacier from the data. The result-         that’s currently developing in Antarctica’s
ing, when and where glaciers will produce ice-                ing image was “like a satellite view, but [of]          much larger Larsen C ice shelf, which spans
bergs, the researchers suggest.                               very high resolution,” said Jouvet.                     hundreds of square kilometers. However, he
   This work “yields insights into the produc-                   The next day, the team explored the glacial          said, monitoring such a large area might be
tion of icebergs, which are increasingly affect-              front and noticed the crack near the glacier’s          better accomplished with satellite images
ing human societies,” said Mark Carey, a gla-                 edge. But when they later reviewed the previ-           than with UAV images.
cier researcher at the University of Oregon in                ous day’s UAV images, they saw no sign of the               Now Jouvet is leading a project to actually
Eugene, who was not involved in this research.                crack.                                                  predict the formation of cracks responsible for
The current number of icebergs drifting into                     Five days later, the team launched the UAV           massive icebergs. The project is deploying a
North Atlantic shipping lanes is “among the                   again and assembled another t­ hree-​                   fleet of UAVs in northwestern Greenland this
highest in a century,” he added.                          ­dimensional image of Bowdoin Glacier. This                 summer to collect its first data. Jouvet said
   A video (­http://bit.ly/­bowdoin​-­video) that         time, the researchers found the crack easily: It            that he hopes to record a large event, from the
the researchers made of this revealing field-             had grown to 750 meters long. By comparing                  initiation of the first crack in the ice to the
work includes footage taken by the UAV’s                  the two h    ­ igh-​­resolution UAV data sets using a       final launch of the iceberg.
camera.                                                      ­feature-​­tracking algorithm, Jouvet and his
                                                          colleagues traced how the ice moved and cal-
Flying Eye                                                culated its velocity at ­1-­meter intervals. But            By Katherine Kornei (email: hobbies4kk@​­gmail​
The team’s 2015 observations of the glacier                   the UAV images revealed only the glacier’s              .­com; @­katherinekornei), Freelance Science Jour-
built on previous studies of the flowing ice                  surface—the real mystery lay within. “We                nalist

6 // Eos                                                                                                                                                      July 2017
MAGNETIC MAPPING BY BIKE - Plague's Link to Past Climate Lava Balloons Typhoon-Tossed Data Buoys - Eos.org
NEWS

Balloons of Lava Bubble                                                                                               sented his theory at the AGU Chapman Con-
                                                                                                                      ference on submarine volcanism in January in

into the Ocean from Seafloor Blisters                                                                                 Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.

                                                                                                                      A Rare Thing to Behold
                                                                                                                      Lava balloons are hollow pieces of cooled
                                                                                                                      basalt, a ­fine-​­grained dark lava rock. These
                                                                                                                      rough ellipsoids can be as small as 50 centi-
                                                                                                                      meters and as long as 3 meters. They rise to
                                                                                                                      the sea surface during some submarine erup-
                                                                                                                      tions, and after a few minutes of bobbing on
                                                                                                                      the surface, they absorb water and sink back
                                                                                                                      down to the seafloor.
                                                                                                                         “When they’re floating at the sea surface,
                                                                                                                      they’re a bit like icebergs,” Küppers said.
                                                                                                                      “They’re mostly below the surface.”
                                                                                                                         So far, humans have documented the
                                                                                                                      appearance of lava balloons only five times:
                                                                                                                      off the coast of the island of Hawaii in Febru-
                                                                                                                      ary 1877; near the Mediterranean island of
                                                                                                                      Pantelleria, Italy, in October 1891; near the
                                                                                                                      Mexican island of Socorro in late 1993 and
                                                                                                                      early 1994; off the coast of the Azores, from
                                                                                                                      1998 to 2001; and in the Canary Islands, Spain,
                                                                                                                      in October 2011.
                                                                                                                         But Küppers suspects that lava balloons
                                                                                                                      may occur more often than volcanologists
                                                                                                                      think. Because they float on the surface for
                                                                                                                      only a few minutes, it’s hard to catch them in
                                                                                                                      the act. Only for the Socorro, Azores, and
                                                                                                                      Canary Island eruptions have scientists been
                                                                                                                      able to directly observe the balloons while
                                                                                                                      measuring other aspects of the eruption, like
Lava balloons are pieces of hollow, cooled lava burped up from the seafloor after some types of undersea volcanic     seismicity and water temperature.
eruptions. This balloon was recovered from the 1998–2001 eruption near the Azores, Portugal. Credit: Ulrich Küppers
                                                                                                                      How Did the Balloons Get There?
                                                                                                                      After studying data—some collected by him,

I
   magine you’re a fisherman at sea and sud-                   The balloons are a strange and rare phe-               some collected by others—from the most
   denly your boat is surrounded by dozens of               nomenon that serve a scientific purpose: They             recent three eruptions, Küppers noticed a few
   floating pieces of hot, dark rock, hissing               alert researchers to underwater eruptions that            common traits. The balloons didn’t seem to
and spewing vapor. Some rocks are no bigger                 might otherwise go unnoticed, said Ulrich                 explode or implode as they rose in the water
than footballs and some are larger than refrig-             Küppers, a volcanologist at the University of             column, and their size didn’t change along
erators. But just a few minutes later, the mys-             Munich in Germany.                                        their journey to the sea surface. Maps of the
terious chunks sink below the surface with no                                                                         seafloor around the eruptions revealed that
hint of where they came from.                                                                                         the balloons all emerged from submarine
   That is exactly what happened to a group of              Fishermen described the                                   eruptions in shallow water no deeper than a
fishermen in the Azores, Portugal, in late
1998. It turns out that they were witnessing
                                                            balloons as “hot steaming                                 few hundred meters.
                                                                                                                          “There’s really a lot of open questions still
the appearance of lava balloons: floating                   stones whose high                                         about how...they form, but we have now a
lumps of hollow, cooled lava burped up from                                                                           good couple of data sets about eruptive activity
the seafloor after an undersea volcanic erup-               temperature caused                                        ongoing at the ocean floor,” he said.
tion.
   The fishermen described the balloons as
                                                            minor damage to fishing                                       After gathering balloons from the Azores
                                                                                                                      eruption and analyzing data from the other
“hot steaming stones whose high temperature                 ropes.”                                                   four eruptions, Küppers has come up with a
caused minor damage to the fishing ropes,”                                                                            hypothesis for how the balloons emerge.
with “fire coming out from the seawater                                                                               Every now and then during a submarine erup-
spreading on the air like sparks of fireworks,”                                                                       tion, gas accumulates just below the interface
according to a report (­http://​­bit​.­ly/​­lava​             Küppers is trying to find out how and why               between the volcano’s magma and the water
-­balloons) by Portuguese scientists who were               these weird features form. He suspects that               above.
called to the scene. The fishermen later                    they are the result of trapped magmatic gas                   The gas continues to rise because it’s less
noticed a “large quantity of dead or injured                pushing upward through lava during some                   dense, bringing a coating of magma along with
fish” at the sea surface.                                   kinds of undersea eruptions. Küppers pre-                 it. The magma that rises above the interface is

Earth & Space Science News                                                                                                                                Eos.org // 7
MAGNETIC MAPPING BY BIKE - Plague's Link to Past Climate Lava Balloons Typhoon-Tossed Data Buoys - Eos.org
NEWS

                                                                                                                        and Risk Assessment explored the eruption
                                                                                                                        area with a remotely operated vehicle.
                                                                                                                          The team got lucky—they spotted some of
                                                                                                                        these balloons as they rose and filmed them
                                                                                                                        with the vehicle’s camera. Küppers and other
                                                                                                                        researchers studied the footage and found gas
                                                                                                                        bubbles emanating from the balloons that
                                                                                                                        had traveled through the water column.
                                                                                                                          “If that was water steam, in contact with
                                                                                                                        water in the Azores at 20 degrees [Celsius], it
                                                                                                                        would instantly quench, condense, and the
                                                                                                                        bubble would implode, disappear,” he said.
                                                                                                                        “These bubbles survive over several frames,
                                                                                                                        and this is reason for me to believe that these
                                                                                                                        bubbles are primarily filled with carbon diox-
                                                                                                                        ide.”
                                                                                                                          He suspects that the carbon dioxide origi-
                                                                                                                        nates from the magma but separates from the
                                                                                                                        melted rock and accumulates below the lava
                                                                                                                        interface, bulging it outward, perhaps trigger-
                                                                                                                        ing the process of lava balloon formation.

                                                                                                                        Lava Blisters
                                                                                                                        During a research expedition to the Azores in
                                                                                                                        July 2016, Küppers and his colleagues studied
                                                                                                                        the 1998 eruption site in detail. “We have
                                                                                                                        observed many balloon fragments in a heap
Lava balloons floating in the ocean on 18 January 2012 during an eruption off the coast of the Canary Islands, Spain.
                                                                                                                        at the seafloor,” so lava balloons have been
Credit: Laura García-Cañada, CC BY 3.0 (http://bit.ly/ccby3-0)
                                                                                                                        launching at the spot for quite some time, he
                                                                                                                        said. “I call it making lava blisters.”
                                                                                                                           Küppers hopes next to quantify the condi-
instantly quenched when it meets cold seawa-                 sea surface, whereas others absorb water and               tions of blister and balloon formation, such
ter, creating a thin crust of cooled lava over a             sink back to the seafloor.                                 as how much gas is needed to bulge the lava
gas-filled interior.                                                                                                    interface, drive the lava out, and make it
   The rising gas keeps pushing the shell up.                What Gas Propels the Balloons?                             detach from the seafloor.
Under the right conditions, the balloon                      Lava balloons appeared intermittently during
becomes buoyant enough that it detaches                      the Azores eruption, which continued until
from the seafloor and rises through the water                early 2001. At one point, researchers from                 By Lauren Lipuma (@Tenacious_She), Contribut-
column. Some are light enough to reach the                   Portugal’s Research Institute for Volcanology              ing Writer

           Open Up Your Science
           Earth and Space Science welcomes original
           research papers spanning all of the Earth,
           planetary, and space sciences, particularly
           papers presenting and interpreting key data
           sets and observations.
           earthspacescience.agu.org

8 // Eos                                                                                                                                                      July 2017
MEETING REPORT

Predictive Capability                                                                                                      Workshop participants noted that despite
                                                                                                                        major developments in space weather mod-

for Extreme Space Weather Events
                                                                                                                        els, space weather forecasting is still in an
                                                                                                                        early stage. One of the challenges they dis-
                                                                                                                        cussed is the dearth of spacecraft monitor-
Workshop on Modeling and Prediction of Extreme Space Weather Events                                                     ing the solar wind between Earth and the
College Park, Maryland, 22–24 August 2016                                                                               Sun. At present these are limited to the
                                                                                                                        L1 point, where Earth’s and the Sun’s gravi-
                                                                                                                        ties balance out and where several spacecraft
                                                                                                                        are stationed (Advanced Composition

S
       pace weather research is motivated by                  potential consequences of space weather                   Explorer (ACE), Deep Space Climate Obser-
       the quest to understand the effects of                 events for everyday life on Earth. This event             vatory (DSCOVR), Wind, and Solar and
       solar activity on the ­near-​­Earth space              sparked auroras as far south as the Carib-                Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)).
environment and the severe impacts these                      bean and blew out telegraph systems. A                       Because of this dearth of data, a strategy
effects can have on infrastructure systems and                comparable storm today would be devastat-                 for integrating data and modeling is essen-
technologies in space and on Earth. As this                   ing.                                                      tial, attendees noted. They agreed that the
sensitive infrastructure grows, so does the vul-                  Several recent intense geospace storms                example of terrestrial weather forecasting
nerability of our society to solar storms. The                also serve as a warning. In particular, the               provides compelling guidance: Data assimi-
growing importance of extreme space weather                   23 July 2012 solar storm, which had a magni-              lation and ensemble forecasting have pro-
events underscores the need to develop mod-                   tude comparable to the Carrington Event,                  duced dramatic improvements in predic-
eling and predictive capabilities for these ­low-​            narrowly missed Earth but provided clear                  tions. Such a strategy should aim to
­probability but ­high-​­impact events.                       evidence of the likelihood of such intense                overcome the “valley of death”—the diffi-
   A workshop last August brought together                    events.                                                   culties in the transition from research to
participants from universities, research cen-                     The U.S. government has provided a                    operations that infamously claim so many
ters, and federal agencies. Participants                      strong impetus to study space weather. In                 promising ideas.
assessed current capabilities in modeling                     October 2015, the White House Office of Sci-
severe space weather events, and they                         ence and Technology Policy released the                   A Need for Advanced Modeling
addressed potential approaches for developing                 National Space Weather Strategy (see ­http://​            Capabilities
capabilities that can facilitate preparedness                ­bit​.­ly/​­space​-­weather​-­strategy) and an             At the workshop, participants discussed chal-
and transition from research to operational                   accompanying action plan (see ­http://​­bit​.­ly/​        lenges in modeling and prediction of extreme
forecasting.                                                 ­space​-­weather​-­action). A 13 October 2016              events in general. However, they agreed that
                                                              presidential executive order calls for space              the severe consequences of such events
A Developing Response                                         weather preparedness and efforts to mini-                 require developing strategies or frameworks
to an Established Risk                                        mize the extent of economic loss and human                that combine the capabilities of first
The famous solar storm referred to as the                     hardship from space weather (see ­http://​­bit​           ­principles and ­data-​­driven approaches. ­Data-​
Carrington Event of 1859 illustrates the                      .­ly/​­space​-­weather​-­EO).                              ­driven modeling is based on complexity sci-
                                                                                                                          ence and does not require modeling assump-
                                                                                                                          tions, so it is an important framework that
                                                                                                                          has provided methods to quantify uncer-
                                                                                                                          tainty. In space weather, such approaches are
                                                                                                                          very relevant, especially considering the cur-
                                                                                                                          rent state of numerical models.
                                                                                                                             Workshop participants identified the need
                                                                                                                          for increasing open access to models in space
                                                                                                                          weather research. To move toward forecast-
                                                                                                                          ing, testing and validating models are essen-
                                                                                                                          tial, which requires that models be readily
                                                                                                                          accessible to the community. As in the case of
                                                                                                                          terrestrial weather, there is a fundamental
                                                                                                                          need for o­ pen-​­access numerical models to
                                                                                                                          accelerate model development and their
                                                                                                                          transition from the research community to
                                                                                                                          operational use.
                                                                                                                             This workshop was funded by NSF/
                                                                                                                          PREEVENTS grant AGS 1638499.

Artist’s representation of the Sun-Earth connection. When storms on the Sun emit solar flares and coronal mass ejec-    By A. Surjalal Sharma (email: ssh@astro​.­umd​
tions, the effects can extend to electrical grids and telecommunications systems on Earth. At a workshop last August,   .­edu) and Eugenia E. Kalnay, University of Mary-
experts looked at current capabilities for modeling severe space weather events and discussed how they could            land, College Park; and Michael Bonadonna,
develop ways to help with preparedness and forecasting for such events. Credit: NASA/GSFC/SOHO/ESA, CC BY 2.0           National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-
(http://bit.ly/ccby2-0)                                                                                                 tion, Silver Spring, Md.

Earth & Space Science News                                                                                                                                  Eos.org // 9
OPINION

Acquiring a Taste                                                                                                          Our democratic system means that I expect
                                                                                                                        power to be mutable. But I also expect the

for Advocacy
                                                                                                                        rules to stay more or less the same, and these
                                                                                                                        days that’s not such a sure bet.
                                                                                                                           Sitting in that basement room, listening to
                                                                                                                        the people who argue for our work to the peo-
                                                                                                                        ple who use what we learn (and pay for our
                                                                                                                        curiosity), I knew that even if I’m unwilling to

O
         n the Sunday before last year’s AGU                  This disengagement isn’t just unreasoned                  advocate for particular policies in my role as a
         Fall Meeting—about a month after the              distaste. Some years ago, prompted by a                      scientist, I am more than ready to advocate for
         U.S. elections—I found myself in a                request from a scientist I greatly admire to                 what we do and to make the case for stability,
windowless room, deep in the basement of the               sign a policy statement I wholeheartedly                     intellectual freedom, and openness in how we
San Francisco Marriott Marquis Hotel. It was               agreed with, I thought long and hard about                   do it.
8:00 a.m., and I was shaking off jet lag to                whether to engage in political discourse as a
attend a science communications workshop                   scientist.                                                   A Visit to Congress
hosted by AGU’s Sharing Science program.                      In the end, after hearing a timely and ter-               With this readiness to advocate, I took advan-
   Communications, in this context, means                  rific set of talks (see ­http://​­bit​.­ly/​­scipolicy), I   tage of a trip to Washington earlier this year to
talking about science to people who aren’t sci-            did not sign that statement. Instead, I set-                 spend a day of my own time visiting members
entists. The workshop covered three topics:                tled on the idea that science can tell us what               of Congress.
interacting with the general public, which I               is true but not what to do—that policy might                    The visits were arranged by AGU’s public
love; talking to journalists, which is what drew           be grounded in truth but ultimately reflects                 affairs staff, the same people who run AGU’s
me; and interactions with politicians. I figured           values.                                                      Congressional Visits Days. In the weeks before
I’d zone out through that last bit.                           That principle served me well enough for a                the trip, the staff helped me craft a message,
   But that isn’t how things turned out.                   decade, even in the face of growing unease                   then refine a script with stories and concrete
                                                           about increasingly counterfactual arguments                  requests. They identified whom I could meet
A Eureka Moment                                            against the increasingly deep understanding                  with and what committee memberships or
Let’s back up a bit. Even when I was a postdoc             of climate change. But times have changed,                   legislative sponsorships would make the visit
in the Washington, D. C., area, almost                     and it’s become unnervingly normal to                        most relevant. They joined me on those visits,
2 decades ago, I avoided politics like the                 advance political agendas by denying the                     guiding me through a bewildering building
plague.                                                    truths that science provides.                                and an even more bewildering social world.

A sign held at the 21 January 2017 Women’s March in Washington, D. C. Credit: Liz Lemon

10 // Eos                                                                                                                                                       July 2017
OPINION

   The legislative side of the federal govern-         My biggest surprise, however, was learning      I don’t think so. On the most basic level,
ment is like another country: unfamiliar,           firsthand how hard congressional staff work to   politicians respond to public pressure and
sometimes uncomfortable, but easy enough to         find common ground. For my visit, AGU had        opinion, and newly engaged, vocal, and orga-
get the hang of, once I had dusted off my           arranged meetings with representatives from      nized communities can be valuable support or
interview suit.                                     both political parties, guaranteeing that some   formidable opponents.
   Capitol Hill runs on young people.                                                                            More fundamental, politicians have
Most staff are the age of graduate stu-                                                                       to triangulate an enormous range of
dents, the really senior staff about as    Anecdotes make facts personal—                                     priorities. The fate of Earth science is
old as postdocs. Nonetheless, it
quickly becomes apparent that these
                                           and people, after all, are far more                                rarely the most pressing or compel-
                                                                                                              ling. And yet they listen, and I’d like
are smart people with knowledge and        important than ideas.                                              to think that positions might change.
power.                                                                                                           Musing on the way home from my
   Some social customs take getting                                                                           congressional visit, I couldn’t shake
used to. In everyday conversation, it                                                                         the image of a stream running over
would be rude to make a request without             of the people I met would have viewpoints dif-   rocks. The landscape right now might seem so
establishing a connection, but on the Hill “the     ferent than my own. And yet every single staff   permanent, but then there’s the Grand Can-
ask” is the first thing on the table because this   member went out of his or her way to hear        yon….
gives your hosts the chance to calibrate who        what I had to say, respond thoughtfully, and
you are and how to respond to you.                  identify one or more points on which our
   One-off stories have little value in scien-      agendas aligned.                                 By Robert Pincus (email: robert.pincus@colorado
tific arguments, but they are gold in congres-                                                       .edu), University of Colorado Boulder
sional offices. That’s partly because time is       No Landscape Is Permanent
short (most visits last 30 minutes or less).        Of course, no single visit by one scientist is   Editor’s Note: For more information on AGU’s
But it’s also because anecdotes make facts          going to change any legislator’s well-           Sharing Science program and Congressional Visits
personal—and people, after all, are far more        developed policy stance. Does that mean the      Days, see https://sharingscience.agu.org/ and
important than ideas.                               visits are pointless or self-indulgent?          http://bit.ly/AGUcvd.

      Read it first on
      Articles are published on Eos.org before                                        A 1.4-Billion-Pixel Map of the Gulf of Mexico
      they appear in the magazine.                                                    Seafloor
                                                                                      http://bit.ly/Eos_GOM-seafloor-map
      Visit https://eos.org daily for the latest news
      and perspectives.                                                               Mining Ancient Texts Reveals
                                                                                      Clues to Space Weather of Yore
                                                                                      http://bit.ly/Eos_ancient-spaceweather

                                                                                      Unseasonable Weather Entrenches
                                                                                      Climate Opinions
                                                                                      http://bit.ly/Eos_climate-beliefs

                                                                                      A Sea Change in Paleoceanography
                                                                                      http://bit.ly/Eos_Paleoceanography

                                                                                      Shifting Winds Write Their History
                                                                                      on a New Zealand Lake Bed
                                                                                      http://bit.ly/Eos_NZ-lake-bed

                                                                                      Deep Trouble! Common Problems
                                                                                      for Ocean Observatories
                                                                                      http://bit.ly/Eos_ocean-observatory-problems

Earth & Space Science News                                                                                                              Eos.org // 11
UNDERSTANDING
       KAMCHATKA’S
       EXTRAORDINARY
        VOLCANO
        CLUSTER
        By Nikolai M. Shapiro, Christoph
        Sens-Schönfelder, Birger G. Lühr,
        Michael Weber, Ilyas Abkadyrov,
        Evegeny I. Gordeev, Ivan Koulakov,
        Andrey Jakovlev, Yulia A. Kugaenko,
        and Vadim A. Saltykov

12 // Eos                                     July 2017
K
                                             lyuchevskoy volcano, soaring 4750 meters
                                             above the Kamchatka Peninsula near the
                                             western shore of the Bering Sea, is one of
                                             the most active in the world. Many inter-
                                             national flights connecting North Amer-
                                             ica and Asia fly over the peninsula, where
                             a group of active volcanoes, including Klyuchevskoy,
                             occasionally fill the air with ash and dust. What drives
                             the unusually high volcanic activity here? Do these vol-
                             canoes all feed from the same large pool of magma?
                               The Klyuchevskoy volcanic group (KVG), a part of the
                             Kuril-Kamchatka volcanic belt, is located in a subduction

                             The Klyuchevskoy volcano in eastern Russia during a 2016 eruption. The photo-
                             graph was taken in July; the eruption began in April and lasted about 6 months.
                             To the right is the Kamen volcano. Both volcanoes are part of an especially active
                             group on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, near the Bering Sea. Credit: Segrey Chirkov

Earth & Space Science News                                                                                        Eos.org // 13
Fig. 1. KISS project setup. (a) Three-​­dimensional view of the K
                                                                            ­ amchatka–​   reservoirs are connected by one large volcanic supercom­
            ­Aleutian tectonic plate junction. The red arrow indicates the location of     plex. The instruments also provided a ­real-​­time record of
             the Klyu­chevskoy volcanic group (KVG). The approximate positions of          an unfolding eruption: They recorded the full sequence of
             the active and extinct volcanic chains are indicated with red and blue        events that preceded the most recent eruption of Klyu­
             dashed lines, respectively. (b) Region surrounding the KVG where the          chevskoy, in April 2016.
             KISS seismic stations (green circles) collected data from July 2015 to July
             2016. Broadband and ­short-​­period stations of the permanent seismic
                                                                                           The Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group
             monitoring network are shown with black and white triangles, respec-
                                                                                           Over the past 10,000 years, Klyuchevskoy volcano has
             tively. Red arrows show the locations of volcanoes that erupted during
                                                                                           produced an average of 1 cubic meter of erupted rock
             the past decade: 1, Klyuchevskoy; 2, Bezymianny; 3, Tolbachik; 4, Shive-
                                                                                           every second [Fedotov et al., 1987]. This eruption rate is
             luch; and 5, Kizimen.
                                                                                           much higher than that of most volcanoes associated with
                                                                                           subduction and is comparable to the growth of the Hawai­
                                                                                           ian volcanic chain, often considered one of the most vig­
                                                                                           orous volcanic systems of modern Earth.
            zone where the Pacific oceanic plate plunges beneath the
                                                                                              Besides Klyuchevskoy, the KVG contains 12 other large
            tectonic plate that carries the peninsula (Figure 1a). The
                                                                                           volcanoes. Two of them, Bezymianny and Tolbachik, have
            strength and variety of volcanic activity in the region
                                                                                           been very active in the past few decades. Two other active
            make it a natural laboratory to study where magma sits and
                                                                                           volcanoes, Shiveluch and Kizimen, are located only 60 kilo­
            how it moves in a subduction zone.
                                                                                           meters north and south, respectively, of KVG (Figure 1b).
               Previous surveys have been limited to the area around
                                                                                              A whole spectrum of eruptive styles is present in the
            Klyuchevskoy. That changed in 2015–2016, when an inter­
                                                                                           KVG, ranging from steady ­Hawaiian-​­type eruptions, as
            national collaboration conducted the first geophysical
                                                                                           seen during the two most recent eruptions of Tolbachik,
            survey of the entire KVG. The effort was named the Klyu­
                                                                                           to the strongly explosive eruptions of Bezymianny in
            chevskoy ­Investigation–​­Seismic Structure of an Extraor­
                                                                                           1956, which were among the world’s largest in the 20th
            dinary Volcanic System (KISS) experiment.
                                                                                           century. (The word bezymianny means “unnamed” in
               Data from KISS’s instrument network offer an unprec­
                                                                                           Russian. Until the 1956 eruption, the volcano was consid­
            edented look at one of Earth’s most active volcanic
                                                                                           ered to be extinct, so no one bothered to give it a name.)
            regions and could reveal whether the underlying magma
                                                                                              The region’s exceptional volcanic activity is related to
                                                                                           the unique tectonic setting of the KVG, located at the
                                                                                           sharp corner between the K   ­ uril-​­Kamchatka and Aleutian
                                                                                           trenches. This corner is where the H    ­ awaiian–​­Emperor
                                                                                           seamount chain, the underwater mountain range that
                                                                                           stretches down to Hawaii, is subducted, and the KVG is
                                                                                           perched above the edge of the subducted slab (Figure 1a).
                                                                                              Geodynamic models that attempt to explain the volu­
                                                                                           minous volcanism in the KVG are complex and include
                                                                                           many factors. These include the release of fluids from the
                                                                                           thick, highly hydrated H ­ awaiian-​­Emperor crust [Doren-
                                                                                           dorf et al., 2000], the mantle flow around the corner of the
                                                                                           Pacific plate [Yogodzinski et al., 2001], and the recent
                                                                                           detachment of a portion of the slab due to an eastward
                                                                                           jump of the subduction zone beneath Kamchatka [Levin
            KISS experiment fieldwork often took place in remote locations. Here, a        et al., 2002]. The large variability of lavas and eruption
            Kamaz truck and Robinson helicopter transport equipment and field              styles reflects the complexity of the feeding system of
            crews. Klyuchevskoy (erupting) and Kamen volcanoes are seen in the             magma sources and reservoirs in the upper mantle and
            background. Credit: Sergey Chirkov                                             the crust.

14 // Eos                                                                                                                                                 July 2017
­ he Klyuchevskoy volcanic group in northeastern Russia, as seen from the International Space Station, viewed from the southeast. Credit: Earth Sci-
             T
             ence and Remote Sensing Unit, NASA Johnson Space Center

             A Unique Natural Laboratory                                                 tem requires an investigation of subsurface structures at a
             Because of its strong and variable activity, the KVG is a                   much larger scale.
             unique natural laboratory for studying volcanism in a
             subduction zone. Understanding how this zone functions                      The KISS Project
             requires detailed knowledge about the configuration of                       To undertake such a l­ arge-​­scale seismological investiga­
             the subducted oceanic plates and about the distribution of                   tion of the KVG, we formed a consortium of institutions
             magma conduits and reservoirs within the mantle wedge                        from Russia, France, and Germany and designed the KISS
             and the crust. A particularly important question is                          experiment. We operated a temporary network of 83 seis­
             whether the individual KVG volcanoes are fed from inde­                      mographs between August 2015 and July 2016.
             pendent magma sources or whether they form a single                             The experiment took place in difficult terrain; helicop­
             interconnected magmatic supersystem.                                         ters and o­ ff-​­road trucks were needed to transport the
               Gathering information about the deep KVG structure                        equipment and field crews to the installation sites. An
             requires the use of geophysical methods. Past seismologi­                   ­eruption-​­triggered mudflow destroyed one site, and a few
             cal studies [Koulakov et al., 2011] have revealed possible                   others were wrecked by bears. Despite the harsh environ­
             pathways of melts ascending from the subducting slab                         ment, the team recovered data from 77 instruments (Fig­
             and a multilevel system of magma reservoirs in the crust.                    ure 1b).
             However, the structures that these studies illuminated                          Initial inspection of seismograms indicates that the
             are restricted mainly to a few tens of kilometers sur­                       network successfully recorded many tectonic and volcanic
             rounding Klyuchevskoy volcano, where most existing per­                      earthquakes and volcanic tremors. The collected data set,
             manent seismic stations are located (Figure 1b). A full                      combined with records from permanent seismic stations,
             understanding of the behavior of the KVG magmatic sys­                       will be used to study various types of earthquakes associ­

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The Klyuchevskoy volcano puffs gas during its 2016 eruption. Kamen           Moreover, Kamchatka has a ­well-​­established record of
            and Bezymianny volcanoes are to the left. In 2015 and 2016, an interna-   even larger ­caldera-​­forming eruptions in the Holocene
            tional collaboration conducted a large-scale geophysical survey of the    [Braitseva et al., 1995], with the largest of them forcibly
            active group of volcanoes that includes Klyuchevskoy. Credit: Benoit      ejecting about 150 cubic kilometers of rock fragments
            Taisne                                                                    (tephra).
                                                                                         Considering that at present more than half of Kam­
                                                                                      chatka volcanic magmas are generated below the KVG, we
            ated with the volcanic and magmatic activity and to image                 cannot ignore the possibility of a future extreme explo­
            the crust and upper mantle with multiscale seismic                        sive event in this region. We expect the results of the KISS
            tomography.                                                               experiment to help us evaluate such extreme event sce­
               These results will help us understand why exceptionally                narios by improving our knowledge of the size of the KVG
            large amounts of melts are generated in the upper mantle                  crustal magmatic reservoirs, along with the volume of
            at the K
                   ­ amchatka-​­Aleutian subduction corner and how                    potentially explosive magmas they might contain.
            these magmas are transformed during the ascent through                       When the Klyuchevskoy volcano rumbled back to life
            the crust, producing the vigorous and very variable volca­                and erupted in April 2016 (see ­http://​­bit​.­ly/​­Klyuchevskoy​
            nism we see at the surface.                                               -­eruption), the KISS network recorded the full sequence
                                                                                      of reactivation leading up to the eruption. We will use this
            Monitoring the KVG for Hazardous Eruptions                                data set to improve our knowledge of how the rise of
            Volcanic eruptions regularly affect a few small settlements               magma and the preeruptive buildup of pressure are
            located near the KVG, and they pose a significant threat to               expressed in the continuous seismic signals. The data will
            aviation because many international flights that connect                  also help refine the routine monitoring of the KVG and
            North America and Asia pass over Kamchatka. Large explo­                  other nearby volcanoes performed by the Kamchatka
            sive eruptions such as those of Bezymianny in 1956 and                    Branch of Russia’s Geophysical Survey and by the Kam­
            Shiveluch in 1964, when about 1 cubic kilometer of erupted                chatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team, which is oper­
            material was ejected, might be particularly dangerous.                    ated by the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology.

16 // Eos                                                                                                                                                 July 2017
Acknowledgments                                                                             Dorendorf, F., U. Wiechert, and G. Wörner (2000), Hydrated ­sub-​­arc mantle: A source
                                                                                                           for the Kluchevskoy volcano, Kamchatka/Russia, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 175, 69–86,
             The KISS experiment was supported by the Russian Science                                      ­https://​­doi​.­org/​­10​.­1016/​­S0012​-­821X­(99)­00288​-­5.
             Foundation (grant ­14-​­47-​­00002), the French project Labex                               Fedotov, S. A., A. P. Khrenov, and N. A. Jarinov (1987), Klyuchevskoy volcano, its activity in
                                                                                                            1932–1986 and possible development [in Russian], Volcanol. Seismol., 4, 3–16. [Volca-
             UnivEarth, and the Université Sorbonne Paris Cité project                                    nol. Seismol., Engl. transl., 9, 501–521, 1990.]
             VolcanoDynamics. Sixty seismographs were provided by                                        Koulakov, I., et al. (2011), Feeding volcanoes of the Kluchevskoy group from the results of
             Geophysical Instrument Pool Potsdam (GIPP) from the                                            local earthquake tomography, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L09305, ­https://​­doi​.­org/​­10​.­1029/​
                                                                                                            2­ 011GL046957.
             Helmholtz Center ­Potsdam-​­GFZ German Research Centre
                                                                                                         Levin, V., et al. (2002), Seismic evidence for catastrophic slab loss beneath Kamchatka,
             for Geosciences, and 23 were provided by the partner institu­                                  Nature, 418, 763–767, ­https://​­doi​.­org/​­10​.­1038/​­nature00973.
             tions from the Russian Academy of Sciences: the Institute of                                Yogodzinski, G. M., et al. (2001), Geochemical evidence for the melting of subducting
                                                                                                            oceanic lithosphere at plate edges, Nature, 409, 500–504, ­https://​­doi​.­org/​­10​.­1038/​
             Volcanology and Seismology, the Trofimuk Institute of Petro­                                    ­35054039.
             leum Geology and Geophysics, and the Kamchatka Branch of
             the Geophysical Survey. KISS data are stored in the GFZ Seis­                               Author Information
             mological Data Archive operated by the GEOFON program                                       Nikolai M. Shapiro (email: nshapiro@​­ipgp.­fr), Institut de
             and will be openly available after a ­3-­year embargo period.                               Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France; Christoph ­Sens-​
             We are grateful to Sergey Abramenkov, Benjamin Heit, Pavel                                  ­Schönfelder, Birger G. Lühr, and Michael Weber, GFZ
             Kuznetsov, Ekaterina Kukarina, Roman Kulakov, Alexey Kot­                                    German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Ger-
             lyarov, Valeriy Gladkov, Petr Voropaev, Dmitry Droznin,                                      many; Ilyas Abkadyrov and Evegeny I. Gordeev, Institute of
             Sergey Senyukov, and Vitaly Bliznetsov, who participated in                                  Volcanology and Seismology, Far East Branch of the Russian
             the fieldwork. Special thanks are owed to Sergey Chirkov for                                 Academy of Sciences, ­Petropavlovsk-​­Kamchatsky, Russia; Ivan
             providing field photographs and to the truck driver, Igor                                    Koulakov and Andrey Jakovlev, Trofimuk Institute of Petro-
             Uteshev, as well as to the helicopter pilot, Gennady Krosh­kin.                              leum Geology and Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian
                                                                                                          Academy of Sciences and Novosibirsk State University, Novosi-
                                                                                                          birsk, Russia; and Yulia A. Kugaenko and Vadim A. Saltykov,
             References
             Braitseva, O. A., et al. (1995), The ages of calderas, large explosive craters and active
                                                                                                          Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey, Russian Acad-
              volcanoes in the Kuril–Kamchatka region, Bull. Volcanol., 57, 383–402.                      emy of Sciences, P ­ etropavlovsk-​­Kamchatsky, Russia

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