MAGNETIC MAPPING BY BIKE - Plague's Link to Past Climate Lava Balloons Typhoon-Tossed Data Buoys - Eos.org
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VOL. 98 • NO. 7 • JUL 2017 Earth & Space Science News MAGNETIC MAPPING BY BIKE Plague’s Link to Past Climate Lava Balloons Typhoon-Tossed Data Buoys
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Earth & Space Science News Contents JULY 2017 PROJECT UPDATE VOLUME 98, ISSUE 7 12 Understanding Kamchatka’s Extraordinary Volcano Cluster An international seismological collaboration in Kamchatka, Russia, investigates the driving forces of one of the world’s largest, most active volcano clusters. PROJECT UPDATE 24 New Data Buoys Watch Typhoons from Within the Storm Advanced real-time data buoys have observed nine strong typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean since 2015, providing high-resolution data and reducing the uncertainty of numerical 18 model forecasts. RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT COVER A Bike Built for Magnetic Mapping 40 How Arctic Ice Affects Gas Exchange Between Air and Sea Mounting a magnetic sensor on a bicycle offers an efficient, low-cost method of Scientists begin to fill a major data gap by collecting ground magnetic field data over rough terrain where conventional vehicles investigating carbon dioxide dynamics in a dare not venture. remote region of the Arctic Ocean. Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 1
Contents DEPARTMENTS Editor in Chief Barbara T. Richman: AGU, Washington, D. C., USA; eos_ brichman@agu.org Editors Christina M. S. Cohen Wendy S. Gordon Carol A. Stein California Institute Ecologia Consulting, Department of Earth and of Technology, Pasadena, Austin, Texas, USA; Environmental Sciences, Calif., USA; wendy@ecologiaconsulting University of Illinois at cohen@srl.caltech.edu .com Chicago, Chicago, Ill., José D. Fuentes David Halpern USA; cstein@uic.edu Department of Meteorology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pennsylvania State Pasadena, Calif., USA; University, University davidhalpern29@gmail Park, Pa., USA; .com juf15@meteo.psu.edu Editorial Advisory Board Mark G. Flanner, Atmospheric Sciences Jian Lin, Tectonophysics Nicola J. Fox, Space Physics Figen Mekik, Paleoceanography and Aeronomy and Paleoclimatology 10 Peter Fox, Earth and Space Science Jerry L. Miller, Ocean Sciences Informatics Thomas H. Painter, Cryosphere Steve Frolking, Biogeosciences Sciences Edward J. Garnero, Study of the Philip J. Rasch, Global Environmental Earth’s Deep Interior Change 28–38 AGU News Michael N. Gooseff, Hydrology Brian C. Gunter, Geodesy Eric M. Riggs, Education Adrian Tuck, Nonlinear Geophysics In Appreciation of AGU’s Kristine C. Harper, History of Geophysics Sergio Vinciguerra, Mineral Susan E. Hough, Natural Hazards and Rock Physics Outstanding Reviewers of 2016; Emily R. Johnson, Volcanology, Andrew C. Wilcox, Earth and Planetary Scientists’ Freedom to Work Entails Geochemistry, and Petrology Surface Processes Responsibilities to Society. Keith D. Koper, Seismology Earle Williams, Atmospheric Robert E. Kopp, Geomagnetism and Space Electricity and Paleomagnetism Mary Lou Zoback, Societal Impacts John W. Lane, Near-Surface Geophysics and Policy Sciences 39–42 Research Spotlight Staff Water Quality Database Offers New Production and Design: Faith A. Ishii, Production Manager; Melissa A. Tribur, Senior Tools to Study Aquatic Systems; Production Specialist; Elizabeth Thompson, Production and Editorial Assistant; Travis What Led to the Largest Volcanic Frazier and Valerie Friedman, Electronic Graphics Specialists Eruption in Human History?; How Editorial: Peter L. Weiss, Manager/Senior News Editor; Mohi Kumar, Scientific Content Editor; Randy Showstack, Senior News Writer; JoAnna Wendel, News Writer; Arctic Ice Affects Gas Exchange Liz Castenson, Editorial and Production Coordinator Between Air and Sea; Global Marketing: Jamie R. Liu, Manager, Marketing; Angelo Bouselli and Tyjen Conley, 42 Drought Clustering Could Mean Big Marketing Program Managers; Ashwini Yelamanchili, Digital Marketing Coordinator Advertising: Tracy LaMondue, Director, Development; Tel: +1-202-777-7372; Losses for Mining; Stream Network Email: advertising@agu.org Geometry Correlates with Climate; ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Material in this issue may Alteration Along the Alpine Fault 3–8 News be photocopied by individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permission Helps Build Seismic Strain. is also granted to use short quotes, figures, and tables for publication in scientific Tornado Casualties Depend More on books and journals. For permission for any other uses, contact the AGU Publications Storm Energy Than on Population; Office. Between Outbreaks, Did Plague 43–47 Positions Available Eos (ISSN 0096-3941) is published monthly by the American Geophysical Union, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA. Periodical Class postage paid Lurk in Medieval England?; New Current job openings in the Earth at Washington, D. C., and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address Technique Reveals Iceberg Calving and space sciences. changes to Member Service Center, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, Process; Balloons of Lava Bubble USA. into the Ocean from Seafloor Member Service Center: 8:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. Eastern time; Tel: +1-202-462-6900; 48 Postcards from the Field Fax: +1-202-328-0566; Tel. orders in U.S.: 1-800-966-2481; Email: service@ Blisters. agu.org. Researchers set up a seismometer Use AGU’s Geophysical Electronic Manuscript Submissions system to submit on a natural bridge in Utah. a manuscript: http://eos-submit.agu.org. 9 Meeting Report Views expressed in this publication do not Predictive Capability for Extreme necessarily reflect official positions of the American On the Cover Geophysical Union unless expressly stated. Space Weather Events. A scientist collects geomagnetic Christine W. McEntee, Executive Director/CEO readings across Israel’s Bet She’an 10–11 Opinion basin using a specially equipped Acquiring a Taste for Advocacy. bicycle. facebook.com/AmericanGeophysicalUnion @AGU_Eos linkedin.com/company/american-geophysical-union youtube.com/user/AGUvideos 2 // Eos July 2017
NEWS Tornado Casualties Depend More Fear Becomes an Obsession Tyler Fricker grew up hearing his father’s on Storm Energy Than on Population stories of the 1974 Xenia, Ohio, tornado that killed 33 people and injured more than 1000 others. Fricker, now a geographer at Florida State University in Tallahassee and the lead author of the new study, has also lived through a few tornadoes of his own. He explains his fascination with tornadoes as “fear becoming an obsession.” In the new research, he and his colleagues analyzed 872 c asualty-causing tornadoes that swept through parts of the United States between 2007 and 2015. They defined “casu- alty” as a death or an injury related to a storm. “By understanding tornado behavior better…we get a deeper understanding of what may be causing the death and destruc- tion we see in these storms,” Fricker said. The team borrowed a principle of econom- ics known as elasticity to investigate how a tornado’s casualty toll scaled with its energy and the size of the nearby population. Elas- ticity is commonly used by economists to investigate how two measurements—for example, supply and demand—are related. The researchers used National Weather Ser- vice data to determine the energy dissipated by a tornado. They calculated this energy as pro- portional to the area of a tornado’s path multi- plied by its average wind speed raised to the third power. Knowing this quantity for each tornado allowed the team to uniformly define the intensity of each storm. The researchers then collected population measurements in roughly 1-kilometer by 1-kilometer squares for A scene of destruction in Concord, Ala., after the 2011 T uscaloosa–Birmingham tornado, which caused more than 1500 the path of each tornado using a database of casualties. A new study indicates that storm intensity is a better predictor of casualty counts than the size of the local world population maintained by Columbia population. Credit: National Weather Service University in New York. Predicting Casualties W hen a dark, swirling funnel cloud Now, in a new study, researchers have used a Armed with these two parameters and the dips toward the ground, people liv- principle of economics to show that a torna- published casualty counts for each of the tor- ing in a U.S. region in and near the do’s casualty count depends more strongly nadoes in their sample, Fricker and his col- Great Plains popularly known as Tornado Alley on the energy of the storm than on the size leagues investigated how casualties scaled know to move to a safe spot. Tornadoes can of the local population. with storm energy and the size of the nearby destroy concrete buildings and send railcars This work is “likely to spur conversation population. The scientists found that storm rolling, and these violent wind- energy was a better predictor of storms account for roughly 20% of “By understanding tornado behavior the number of s torm-r elated natural hazard–related deaths in injuries and deaths: Doubling the the United States. better…we get a deeper understanding energy of a tornado resulted in Despite tornadoes’ danger, 33% more casualties, but dou- the correlations among the of what may be causing the death and bling the population of a number of storm-related casual- destruction we see in these storms.” t ornado-p rone area resulted in ties, a twister’s energy, and the only 21% more casualties. These size of the population in its path results, which the team reported are not well understood. Better in April in Geophysical Research understanding of those relationships could and additional research,” said Todd Moore, a Letters (http://bit.ly/GRL-tornado), can help scientists, policy makers, and emer- physical geographer at Towson University in inform emergency planning, the team sug- gency management personnel predict future Towson, Md., who was not involved in the gests. tornado deaths and injuries based on trends study. “It provides a framework that can be The relatively larger impact of tornado in population growth and tornado activity. modified to include additional risk variables.” energy on casualties might be cause for con- Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 3
NEWS cern, Fricker and his colleagues note. If cli- mate change is triggering more powerful tor- Between Outbreaks, Did Plague Lurk nadoes, an idea that’s been suggested and debated, emergency managers might have to in Medieval England? contend with larger casualty counts in the future. But scientists are by no means certain that larger tornadoes are anticipated. “There is no doubt climate change is influencing hazards, but for tornadoes, we just simply don’t know to what extent yet,” said Stephen Strader, a geographer at Villanova University in Villanova, Pa., who was not involved in the study. It is “far more likely” that the population, rather than the tornado energy, will double in the future, notes Victor Gensini, a meteorolo- gist at the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Ill., who also was not involved in the study. Effective communication and good city plan- ning might help reduce storm-related casual- ties, Fricker and colleagues suggest. “It’s hard to control the behavior of tornadoes, but it’s somewhat within our control to smartly advance how we organize cities and suburbs,” said Fricker. “You might have only 10 or 15 minutes to get to a safe spot.” Many More Factors Of course, changes in storm energy and popu- Dead carts, such as the one depicted in this antique engraving, were used in London to collect corpses during the last lation can’t fully explain all variations in major bubonic plague epidemic in England, from 1665 to 1666. Credit: iStock.com/duncan1890 storm-related deaths or injuries. “There are also more factors that combine to determine a R casualty, one of the most important being esearchers of the bubonic plague, also Austria. Her findings (http://bit.ly/EGU what type of structure a person is in when the known as the Black Death, have long -plague) suggest that the bacterium lingered tornado strikes,” said Gensini. debated why the disease broke out silently in rodents during periods between Fricker said that he and his colleagues look repeatedly in medieval Europe: Did traders plague flare-ups, only to threaten humans forward to examining factors such as how a from elsewhere bring the dreaded pestilence again when the rodent population exploded. victim’s age, socioeconomic status, and race with them from infected areas, thus sparking might correlate with vulnerability to harm new epidemics? Or was the Yersinia pestis bac- Rediscovering Past Climate from a tornado. “Maybe we’ll be able to profile terium, now known to cause the plague, pres- A climate historian, Pribyl reconstructed communities more susceptible to casualties ent but for some reason inactive during the English climate between 1256 and 1431 using based on all of these other determinants,” he 5 to 12 years that typically passed between indirect evidence, for example, the date of the said. outbreaks? start of the grain harvest. She wondered The team hopes that their findings will be Now a researcher has found a pattern of whether she might discover in these data the useful to emergency personnel, who could tar- recurrence by looking at ancient records of the influences that triggered plague epidemics or get these most vulnerable populations when Black Death and climatic conditions in what quelled them. She realized that she needed to they disseminate information about tornado today is an eastern region of England called extend her climate record to the end of the preparedness, for example. After all, “you East Anglia. “It looks like, after a run of 1, 2, or 15th century, when public health measures might have only 10 or 15 minutes to get to a 3 years of relatively average or slightly cool such as quarantining were introduced, which safe spot,” said Fricker. summers, once there is a jump to warm and confined outbreaks and lowered their impact. dry weather, there is a large likelihood” of a Pribyl found the data she needed in the plague epidemic, said Kathleen Pribyl of the work of a Dutch independent climate histo- By Katherine Kornei (email: hobbies4kk@gmail University of East Anglia in Norwich, U.K., in rian, Jan Buisman, who has been compiling .com; @katherinekornei), Freelance Science Jour- April during the General Assembly of the reports on weather phenomena and climate in nalist European Geosciences Union in Vienna, the Low Countries, the coastal region now 4 // Eos July 2017
NEWS occupied mostly by the Netherlands and Bel- ton, Ont., Canada, who did not participate in gium. This area, lying only 200 kilometers east Pribyl’s study, told Eos that he found Pribyl’s of East Anglia across a stretch of the North conclusion that the plague did not enter Sea, was close enough for its weather records Europe again and again but resided in a to be suitable to supplement the English data, rodent reservoir “convincing and interest- Pribyl told Eos. Buisman’s records date from as ing.” Poinar took part in an investigation of early as 764 C.E. the genome of a strain of Yersinia pestis that With a sufficiently long temperature record was found in Marseille, France, in the teeth of thus established and with data on rainfall buried victims of one of the last outbreaks in readily available via tree ring sequences, Pribyl Europe, in 1722. Last year, his group reported could characterize each year: Was the winter that this strain had descended from bacteria cold or not? Was the summer cool, warm, dry, identified in 14th-century victims in London. wet? At first, just like researchers before her, So genetics, too, points at the plague emerg- she saw no particular circumstances that ing repeatedly from a reservoir in or near would coincide with a plague outbreak. But Europe, Poinar said. that changed when she grouped summers not Could the source of the repeated English by their temperature but by the difference in outbreaks have been in England itself, and average temperature from the preceding sum- A scanning electron micrograph shows the bubonic could the field voles that Pribyl suspects mer. If a warm summer followed a normal plague bacterium Yersinia pestis (yellow green) infesting indeed have been the reservoir? It’s quite pos- one, then a plague outbreak was much more the digestive tract of a flea. Credit: NIAID, CC BY 2.0 sible, Poinar said. “All these small, human- likely, she found. (http://bit.ly/ccby2-0) a ssociated rodents could be important. All This pattern, according to Pribyl, shows that these should be tested. If she has samples, it was not repeated arrivals from outside we’d be happy to test them!” he said. England that made the plague return again leagues analyzed a data set of 7711 plague out- and again but the waxing and waning of the breaks in Europe and compared them to pre- population of some host animal. Knowing the cipitation records from tree ring samples from By Bas den Hond (email: bas@stellarstories.com), preference of Yersinia pestis, it was likely a Europe and Asia. Weather conditions that Freelance Science Journalist rodent, she explained. might have caused rodent numbers to Vole Toll spike, they reported, In England, the field vole and the common generally did not vole are likely candidates to have played the coincide with out- role of plague reservoirs, and these species breaks. They con- have naturally fluctuating population sizes. A cluded that most normal year or, better yet, a few normal years, outbreaks of the followed by a warm year, said Pribyl, is just plague must have what sets up the population structure, the been caused by food situation, and the number of predators renewed introduction for a population explosion. This increase will, of Yersinia pestis from in turn, bring these rodents, and the fleas they Asia, brought into carry, into closer contact with humans than in Europe by rats on normal times, “especially after the population merchant ships. collapses again, which always happens at Pribyl, however, some point,” she said. “Because then the fleas questions that will try to move to other hosts, and humans research team’s are as good as anything else. And that’s when analysis. “They transference of the disease becomes quite looked at climate likely.” fluctuations for the Other signs from climate data also point to whole of Europe and rodents as the reservoir. A slightly cold winter expected to find one seems to have helped the plague: More snow kind of pattern. But would have insulated and hid the voles’ bur- that’s actually quite rows. But outbreaks almost never occurred unlikely. With my after a very cold winter, which would have data, I could look at killed a lot of voles, or a very mild one, when just one region,” she abundant rain would have flooded many bur- noted. rows. Genes, Too Imported Outbreaks? Hendrik Poinar, an In an earlier study (http://bit.ly/pnas-plague), evolutionary biolo- Boris Schmid, an evolutionary biologist at the gist at McMaster University of Oslo in Norway, and his col- University in Hamil- Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 5
NEWS New Technique Reveals wanted to somehow enter the glacier,” said Jouvet. For that, the researchers turned to Iceberg Calving Process modeling. Hundreds of Artificial Glaciers Members of the research team, which included scientists from ETH Zurich and W alking near the end of a massive there by some of the same researchers using Hokkaido University in Sapporo, Japan, sim- tongue of glacial ice rising hundreds automatic cameras, GPS measurements, and ulated on a computer more than 100 versions of meters above the sea, a group of ice-penetrating radar. This time, however, the of the terminus of Bowdoin Glacier, each scientists spotted an unexpected and ominous scientists brought with them a piece of tech- characterized by different internal properties sign. About 100 meters from the edge of the nology that’s becoming popular in geophysics such as bedrock topography, friction between glacier was a crack a few meters wide. The research: a UAV. bedrock and ice, and ice stiffness. They also crack was fresh—there had been no sign of it Team members mounted a camera on the modeled whether, at the time of the 16 July the day before. “We decided we wouldn’t walk battery-powered craft. Then, on 11 July, after second flight, the crack might have been par- farther,” said Guillaume Jouvet, a glaciologist overcoming reliability issues with the UAV’s tially filled with water, a condition that would at ETH Zurich in Switzerland. compass related to the nearby North Pole, have widened it more than had it been empty. He and his colleagues were on a 2015 expe- they guided the craft over the terminus of By comparing the properties of these arti- dition to Bowdoin Glacier in northwestern Bowdoin Glacier. ficial glaciers with the actual surface features Greenland for the express purpose of of Bowdoin Glacier, the team found a deepening scientists’ understanding best fit model indicating that the of when, how, and why such fissures crack was water filled and 175 meters form. But the fissures were just a deep, roughly two thirds of the total means to an end; the team was out to thickness of the glacier. “The fractur- piece together the series of events ing process was quite advanced” by from the start of a crack to the then, said Jouvet. moment when an iceberg breaks free He and his colleagues didn’t at the glacial front. attempt to predict exactly when Bow- The international team of research- doin Glacier’s massive iceberg would ers, including Jouvet, led by glaciolo- detach. That happened on 27 July, gist Martin Funk, also of ETH Zurich, about a week after the researchers recently reported in The Cryosphere had left Greenland. A roughly (http://bit.ly/bowdoin-calving) that 1-kilometer-long section of the gla- they used images collected by an cier calved off as an iceberg, which unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to then broke apart in the water. “Fish- model how ice fractures propagated in A large crack splits the ice about 100 meters from the face of Bowdoin Gla- ermen saw a lot of icebergs coming this glacier, which is about half the cier in Greenland. Credit: Julien Seguinot, ETH Zurich from Bowdoin Fjord” that day, Jouvet area of Manhattan Island. The crack noted. resulted in a 1-kilometer-long iceberg He added that the team’s technique breaking away from the front of the glacier. The camera snapped roughly 1000 overlap- of modeling ice fractures could “absolutely” Combining observations of visible ice frac- ping photographs during the 30-minute be applied in more places than just Greenland. tures with modeling of a glacier’s interior, as flight. The researchers then used computer For instance, the method could be used to the team has done, is a powerful technique for software to construct a three-dimensional infer the properties of the enormous crack better understanding, and potentially predict- model of the glacier from the data. The result- that’s currently developing in Antarctica’s ing, when and where glaciers will produce ice- ing image was “like a satellite view, but [of] much larger Larsen C ice shelf, which spans bergs, the researchers suggest. very high resolution,” said Jouvet. hundreds of square kilometers. However, he This work “yields insights into the produc- The next day, the team explored the glacial said, monitoring such a large area might be tion of icebergs, which are increasingly affect- front and noticed the crack near the glacier’s better accomplished with satellite images ing human societies,” said Mark Carey, a gla- edge. But when they later reviewed the previ- than with UAV images. cier researcher at the University of Oregon in ous day’s UAV images, they saw no sign of the Now Jouvet is leading a project to actually Eugene, who was not involved in this research. crack. predict the formation of cracks responsible for The current number of icebergs drifting into Five days later, the team launched the UAV massive icebergs. The project is deploying a North Atlantic shipping lanes is “among the again and assembled another t hree- fleet of UAVs in northwestern Greenland this highest in a century,” he added. dimensional image of Bowdoin Glacier. This summer to collect its first data. Jouvet said A video (http://bit.ly/bowdoin-video) that time, the researchers found the crack easily: It that he hopes to record a large event, from the the researchers made of this revealing field- had grown to 750 meters long. By comparing initiation of the first crack in the ice to the work includes footage taken by the UAV’s the two h igh-resolution UAV data sets using a final launch of the iceberg. camera. feature-tracking algorithm, Jouvet and his colleagues traced how the ice moved and cal- Flying Eye culated its velocity at 1-meter intervals. But By Katherine Kornei (email: hobbies4kk@gmail The team’s 2015 observations of the glacier the UAV images revealed only the glacier’s .com; @katherinekornei), Freelance Science Jour- built on previous studies of the flowing ice surface—the real mystery lay within. “We nalist 6 // Eos July 2017
NEWS Balloons of Lava Bubble sented his theory at the AGU Chapman Con- ference on submarine volcanism in January in into the Ocean from Seafloor Blisters Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. A Rare Thing to Behold Lava balloons are hollow pieces of cooled basalt, a fine-grained dark lava rock. These rough ellipsoids can be as small as 50 centi- meters and as long as 3 meters. They rise to the sea surface during some submarine erup- tions, and after a few minutes of bobbing on the surface, they absorb water and sink back down to the seafloor. “When they’re floating at the sea surface, they’re a bit like icebergs,” Küppers said. “They’re mostly below the surface.” So far, humans have documented the appearance of lava balloons only five times: off the coast of the island of Hawaii in Febru- ary 1877; near the Mediterranean island of Pantelleria, Italy, in October 1891; near the Mexican island of Socorro in late 1993 and early 1994; off the coast of the Azores, from 1998 to 2001; and in the Canary Islands, Spain, in October 2011. But Küppers suspects that lava balloons may occur more often than volcanologists think. Because they float on the surface for only a few minutes, it’s hard to catch them in the act. Only for the Socorro, Azores, and Canary Island eruptions have scientists been able to directly observe the balloons while measuring other aspects of the eruption, like Lava balloons are pieces of hollow, cooled lava burped up from the seafloor after some types of undersea volcanic seismicity and water temperature. eruptions. This balloon was recovered from the 1998–2001 eruption near the Azores, Portugal. Credit: Ulrich Küppers How Did the Balloons Get There? After studying data—some collected by him, I magine you’re a fisherman at sea and sud- The balloons are a strange and rare phe- some collected by others—from the most denly your boat is surrounded by dozens of nomenon that serve a scientific purpose: They recent three eruptions, Küppers noticed a few floating pieces of hot, dark rock, hissing alert researchers to underwater eruptions that common traits. The balloons didn’t seem to and spewing vapor. Some rocks are no bigger might otherwise go unnoticed, said Ulrich explode or implode as they rose in the water than footballs and some are larger than refrig- Küppers, a volcanologist at the University of column, and their size didn’t change along erators. But just a few minutes later, the mys- Munich in Germany. their journey to the sea surface. Maps of the terious chunks sink below the surface with no seafloor around the eruptions revealed that hint of where they came from. the balloons all emerged from submarine That is exactly what happened to a group of Fishermen described the eruptions in shallow water no deeper than a fishermen in the Azores, Portugal, in late 1998. It turns out that they were witnessing balloons as “hot steaming few hundred meters. “There’s really a lot of open questions still the appearance of lava balloons: floating stones whose high about how...they form, but we have now a lumps of hollow, cooled lava burped up from good couple of data sets about eruptive activity the seafloor after an undersea volcanic erup- temperature caused ongoing at the ocean floor,” he said. tion. The fishermen described the balloons as minor damage to fishing After gathering balloons from the Azores eruption and analyzing data from the other “hot steaming stones whose high temperature ropes.” four eruptions, Küppers has come up with a caused minor damage to the fishing ropes,” hypothesis for how the balloons emerge. with “fire coming out from the seawater Every now and then during a submarine erup- spreading on the air like sparks of fireworks,” tion, gas accumulates just below the interface according to a report (http://bit.ly/lava Küppers is trying to find out how and why between the volcano’s magma and the water -balloons) by Portuguese scientists who were these weird features form. He suspects that above. called to the scene. The fishermen later they are the result of trapped magmatic gas The gas continues to rise because it’s less noticed a “large quantity of dead or injured pushing upward through lava during some dense, bringing a coating of magma along with fish” at the sea surface. kinds of undersea eruptions. Küppers pre- it. The magma that rises above the interface is Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 7
NEWS and Risk Assessment explored the eruption area with a remotely operated vehicle. The team got lucky—they spotted some of these balloons as they rose and filmed them with the vehicle’s camera. Küppers and other researchers studied the footage and found gas bubbles emanating from the balloons that had traveled through the water column. “If that was water steam, in contact with water in the Azores at 20 degrees [Celsius], it would instantly quench, condense, and the bubble would implode, disappear,” he said. “These bubbles survive over several frames, and this is reason for me to believe that these bubbles are primarily filled with carbon diox- ide.” He suspects that the carbon dioxide origi- nates from the magma but separates from the melted rock and accumulates below the lava interface, bulging it outward, perhaps trigger- ing the process of lava balloon formation. Lava Blisters During a research expedition to the Azores in July 2016, Küppers and his colleagues studied the 1998 eruption site in detail. “We have observed many balloon fragments in a heap Lava balloons floating in the ocean on 18 January 2012 during an eruption off the coast of the Canary Islands, Spain. at the seafloor,” so lava balloons have been Credit: Laura García-Cañada, CC BY 3.0 (http://bit.ly/ccby3-0) launching at the spot for quite some time, he said. “I call it making lava blisters.” Küppers hopes next to quantify the condi- instantly quenched when it meets cold seawa- sea surface, whereas others absorb water and tions of blister and balloon formation, such ter, creating a thin crust of cooled lava over a sink back to the seafloor. as how much gas is needed to bulge the lava gas-filled interior. interface, drive the lava out, and make it The rising gas keeps pushing the shell up. What Gas Propels the Balloons? detach from the seafloor. Under the right conditions, the balloon Lava balloons appeared intermittently during becomes buoyant enough that it detaches the Azores eruption, which continued until from the seafloor and rises through the water early 2001. At one point, researchers from By Lauren Lipuma (@Tenacious_She), Contribut- column. Some are light enough to reach the Portugal’s Research Institute for Volcanology ing Writer Open Up Your Science Earth and Space Science welcomes original research papers spanning all of the Earth, planetary, and space sciences, particularly papers presenting and interpreting key data sets and observations. earthspacescience.agu.org 8 // Eos July 2017
MEETING REPORT Predictive Capability Workshop participants noted that despite major developments in space weather mod- for Extreme Space Weather Events els, space weather forecasting is still in an early stage. One of the challenges they dis- cussed is the dearth of spacecraft monitor- Workshop on Modeling and Prediction of Extreme Space Weather Events ing the solar wind between Earth and the College Park, Maryland, 22–24 August 2016 Sun. At present these are limited to the L1 point, where Earth’s and the Sun’s gravi- ties balance out and where several spacecraft are stationed (Advanced Composition S pace weather research is motivated by potential consequences of space weather Explorer (ACE), Deep Space Climate Obser- the quest to understand the effects of events for everyday life on Earth. This event vatory (DSCOVR), Wind, and Solar and solar activity on the near-Earth space sparked auroras as far south as the Carib- Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)). environment and the severe impacts these bean and blew out telegraph systems. A Because of this dearth of data, a strategy effects can have on infrastructure systems and comparable storm today would be devastat- for integrating data and modeling is essen- technologies in space and on Earth. As this ing. tial, attendees noted. They agreed that the sensitive infrastructure grows, so does the vul- Several recent intense geospace storms example of terrestrial weather forecasting nerability of our society to solar storms. The also serve as a warning. In particular, the provides compelling guidance: Data assimi- growing importance of extreme space weather 23 July 2012 solar storm, which had a magni- lation and ensemble forecasting have pro- events underscores the need to develop mod- tude comparable to the Carrington Event, duced dramatic improvements in predic- eling and predictive capabilities for these low- narrowly missed Earth but provided clear tions. Such a strategy should aim to probability but high-impact events. evidence of the likelihood of such intense overcome the “valley of death”—the diffi- A workshop last August brought together events. culties in the transition from research to participants from universities, research cen- The U.S. government has provided a operations that infamously claim so many ters, and federal agencies. Participants strong impetus to study space weather. In promising ideas. assessed current capabilities in modeling October 2015, the White House Office of Sci- severe space weather events, and they ence and Technology Policy released the A Need for Advanced Modeling addressed potential approaches for developing National Space Weather Strategy (see http:// Capabilities capabilities that can facilitate preparedness bit.ly/space-weather-strategy) and an At the workshop, participants discussed chal- and transition from research to operational accompanying action plan (see http://bit.ly/ lenges in modeling and prediction of extreme forecasting. space-weather-action). A 13 October 2016 events in general. However, they agreed that presidential executive order calls for space the severe consequences of such events A Developing Response weather preparedness and efforts to mini- require developing strategies or frameworks to an Established Risk mize the extent of economic loss and human that combine the capabilities of first The famous solar storm referred to as the hardship from space weather (see http://bit principles and data-driven approaches. Data- Carrington Event of 1859 illustrates the .ly/space-weather-EO). driven modeling is based on complexity sci- ence and does not require modeling assump- tions, so it is an important framework that has provided methods to quantify uncer- tainty. In space weather, such approaches are very relevant, especially considering the cur- rent state of numerical models. Workshop participants identified the need for increasing open access to models in space weather research. To move toward forecast- ing, testing and validating models are essen- tial, which requires that models be readily accessible to the community. As in the case of terrestrial weather, there is a fundamental need for o pen-access numerical models to accelerate model development and their transition from the research community to operational use. This workshop was funded by NSF/ PREEVENTS grant AGS 1638499. Artist’s representation of the Sun-Earth connection. When storms on the Sun emit solar flares and coronal mass ejec- By A. Surjalal Sharma (email: ssh@astro.umd tions, the effects can extend to electrical grids and telecommunications systems on Earth. At a workshop last August, .edu) and Eugenia E. Kalnay, University of Mary- experts looked at current capabilities for modeling severe space weather events and discussed how they could land, College Park; and Michael Bonadonna, develop ways to help with preparedness and forecasting for such events. Credit: NASA/GSFC/SOHO/ESA, CC BY 2.0 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- (http://bit.ly/ccby2-0) tion, Silver Spring, Md. Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 9
OPINION Acquiring a Taste Our democratic system means that I expect power to be mutable. But I also expect the for Advocacy rules to stay more or less the same, and these days that’s not such a sure bet. Sitting in that basement room, listening to the people who argue for our work to the peo- ple who use what we learn (and pay for our curiosity), I knew that even if I’m unwilling to O n the Sunday before last year’s AGU This disengagement isn’t just unreasoned advocate for particular policies in my role as a Fall Meeting—about a month after the distaste. Some years ago, prompted by a scientist, I am more than ready to advocate for U.S. elections—I found myself in a request from a scientist I greatly admire to what we do and to make the case for stability, windowless room, deep in the basement of the sign a policy statement I wholeheartedly intellectual freedom, and openness in how we San Francisco Marriott Marquis Hotel. It was agreed with, I thought long and hard about do it. 8:00 a.m., and I was shaking off jet lag to whether to engage in political discourse as a attend a science communications workshop scientist. A Visit to Congress hosted by AGU’s Sharing Science program. In the end, after hearing a timely and ter- With this readiness to advocate, I took advan- Communications, in this context, means rific set of talks (see http://bit.ly/scipolicy), I tage of a trip to Washington earlier this year to talking about science to people who aren’t sci- did not sign that statement. Instead, I set- spend a day of my own time visiting members entists. The workshop covered three topics: tled on the idea that science can tell us what of Congress. interacting with the general public, which I is true but not what to do—that policy might The visits were arranged by AGU’s public love; talking to journalists, which is what drew be grounded in truth but ultimately reflects affairs staff, the same people who run AGU’s me; and interactions with politicians. I figured values. Congressional Visits Days. In the weeks before I’d zone out through that last bit. That principle served me well enough for a the trip, the staff helped me craft a message, But that isn’t how things turned out. decade, even in the face of growing unease then refine a script with stories and concrete about increasingly counterfactual arguments requests. They identified whom I could meet A Eureka Moment against the increasingly deep understanding with and what committee memberships or Let’s back up a bit. Even when I was a postdoc of climate change. But times have changed, legislative sponsorships would make the visit in the Washington, D. C., area, almost and it’s become unnervingly normal to most relevant. They joined me on those visits, 2 decades ago, I avoided politics like the advance political agendas by denying the guiding me through a bewildering building plague. truths that science provides. and an even more bewildering social world. A sign held at the 21 January 2017 Women’s March in Washington, D. C. Credit: Liz Lemon 10 // Eos July 2017
OPINION The legislative side of the federal govern- My biggest surprise, however, was learning I don’t think so. On the most basic level, ment is like another country: unfamiliar, firsthand how hard congressional staff work to politicians respond to public pressure and sometimes uncomfortable, but easy enough to find common ground. For my visit, AGU had opinion, and newly engaged, vocal, and orga- get the hang of, once I had dusted off my arranged meetings with representatives from nized communities can be valuable support or interview suit. both political parties, guaranteeing that some formidable opponents. Capitol Hill runs on young people. More fundamental, politicians have Most staff are the age of graduate stu- to triangulate an enormous range of dents, the really senior staff about as Anecdotes make facts personal— priorities. The fate of Earth science is old as postdocs. Nonetheless, it quickly becomes apparent that these and people, after all, are far more rarely the most pressing or compel- ling. And yet they listen, and I’d like are smart people with knowledge and important than ideas. to think that positions might change. power. Musing on the way home from my Some social customs take getting congressional visit, I couldn’t shake used to. In everyday conversation, it the image of a stream running over would be rude to make a request without of the people I met would have viewpoints dif- rocks. The landscape right now might seem so establishing a connection, but on the Hill “the ferent than my own. And yet every single staff permanent, but then there’s the Grand Can- ask” is the first thing on the table because this member went out of his or her way to hear yon…. gives your hosts the chance to calibrate who what I had to say, respond thoughtfully, and you are and how to respond to you. identify one or more points on which our One-off stories have little value in scien- agendas aligned. By Robert Pincus (email: robert.pincus@colorado tific arguments, but they are gold in congres- .edu), University of Colorado Boulder sional offices. That’s partly because time is No Landscape Is Permanent short (most visits last 30 minutes or less). Of course, no single visit by one scientist is Editor’s Note: For more information on AGU’s But it’s also because anecdotes make facts going to change any legislator’s well- Sharing Science program and Congressional Visits personal—and people, after all, are far more developed policy stance. Does that mean the Days, see https://sharingscience.agu.org/ and important than ideas. visits are pointless or self-indulgent? http://bit.ly/AGUcvd. Read it first on Articles are published on Eos.org before A 1.4-Billion-Pixel Map of the Gulf of Mexico they appear in the magazine. Seafloor http://bit.ly/Eos_GOM-seafloor-map Visit https://eos.org daily for the latest news and perspectives. Mining Ancient Texts Reveals Clues to Space Weather of Yore http://bit.ly/Eos_ancient-spaceweather Unseasonable Weather Entrenches Climate Opinions http://bit.ly/Eos_climate-beliefs A Sea Change in Paleoceanography http://bit.ly/Eos_Paleoceanography Shifting Winds Write Their History on a New Zealand Lake Bed http://bit.ly/Eos_NZ-lake-bed Deep Trouble! Common Problems for Ocean Observatories http://bit.ly/Eos_ocean-observatory-problems Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 11
UNDERSTANDING KAMCHATKA’S EXTRAORDINARY VOLCANO CLUSTER By Nikolai M. Shapiro, Christoph Sens-Schönfelder, Birger G. Lühr, Michael Weber, Ilyas Abkadyrov, Evegeny I. Gordeev, Ivan Koulakov, Andrey Jakovlev, Yulia A. Kugaenko, and Vadim A. Saltykov 12 // Eos July 2017
K lyuchevskoy volcano, soaring 4750 meters above the Kamchatka Peninsula near the western shore of the Bering Sea, is one of the most active in the world. Many inter- national flights connecting North Amer- ica and Asia fly over the peninsula, where a group of active volcanoes, including Klyuchevskoy, occasionally fill the air with ash and dust. What drives the unusually high volcanic activity here? Do these vol- canoes all feed from the same large pool of magma? The Klyuchevskoy volcanic group (KVG), a part of the Kuril-Kamchatka volcanic belt, is located in a subduction The Klyuchevskoy volcano in eastern Russia during a 2016 eruption. The photo- graph was taken in July; the eruption began in April and lasted about 6 months. To the right is the Kamen volcano. Both volcanoes are part of an especially active group on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, near the Bering Sea. Credit: Segrey Chirkov Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 13
Fig. 1. KISS project setup. (a) Three-dimensional view of the K amchatka– reservoirs are connected by one large volcanic supercom Aleutian tectonic plate junction. The red arrow indicates the location of plex. The instruments also provided a real-time record of the Klyuchevskoy volcanic group (KVG). The approximate positions of an unfolding eruption: They recorded the full sequence of the active and extinct volcanic chains are indicated with red and blue events that preceded the most recent eruption of Klyu dashed lines, respectively. (b) Region surrounding the KVG where the chevskoy, in April 2016. KISS seismic stations (green circles) collected data from July 2015 to July 2016. Broadband and short-period stations of the permanent seismic The Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group monitoring network are shown with black and white triangles, respec- Over the past 10,000 years, Klyuchevskoy volcano has tively. Red arrows show the locations of volcanoes that erupted during produced an average of 1 cubic meter of erupted rock the past decade: 1, Klyuchevskoy; 2, Bezymianny; 3, Tolbachik; 4, Shive- every second [Fedotov et al., 1987]. This eruption rate is luch; and 5, Kizimen. much higher than that of most volcanoes associated with subduction and is comparable to the growth of the Hawai ian volcanic chain, often considered one of the most vig orous volcanic systems of modern Earth. zone where the Pacific oceanic plate plunges beneath the Besides Klyuchevskoy, the KVG contains 12 other large tectonic plate that carries the peninsula (Figure 1a). The volcanoes. Two of them, Bezymianny and Tolbachik, have strength and variety of volcanic activity in the region been very active in the past few decades. Two other active make it a natural laboratory to study where magma sits and volcanoes, Shiveluch and Kizimen, are located only 60 kilo how it moves in a subduction zone. meters north and south, respectively, of KVG (Figure 1b). Previous surveys have been limited to the area around A whole spectrum of eruptive styles is present in the Klyuchevskoy. That changed in 2015–2016, when an inter KVG, ranging from steady Hawaiian-type eruptions, as national collaboration conducted the first geophysical seen during the two most recent eruptions of Tolbachik, survey of the entire KVG. The effort was named the Klyu to the strongly explosive eruptions of Bezymianny in chevskoy Investigation–Seismic Structure of an Extraor 1956, which were among the world’s largest in the 20th dinary Volcanic System (KISS) experiment. century. (The word bezymianny means “unnamed” in Data from KISS’s instrument network offer an unprec Russian. Until the 1956 eruption, the volcano was consid edented look at one of Earth’s most active volcanic ered to be extinct, so no one bothered to give it a name.) regions and could reveal whether the underlying magma The region’s exceptional volcanic activity is related to the unique tectonic setting of the KVG, located at the sharp corner between the K uril-Kamchatka and Aleutian trenches. This corner is where the H awaiian–Emperor seamount chain, the underwater mountain range that stretches down to Hawaii, is subducted, and the KVG is perched above the edge of the subducted slab (Figure 1a). Geodynamic models that attempt to explain the volu minous volcanism in the KVG are complex and include many factors. These include the release of fluids from the thick, highly hydrated H awaiian-Emperor crust [Doren- dorf et al., 2000], the mantle flow around the corner of the Pacific plate [Yogodzinski et al., 2001], and the recent detachment of a portion of the slab due to an eastward jump of the subduction zone beneath Kamchatka [Levin KISS experiment fieldwork often took place in remote locations. Here, a et al., 2002]. The large variability of lavas and eruption Kamaz truck and Robinson helicopter transport equipment and field styles reflects the complexity of the feeding system of crews. Klyuchevskoy (erupting) and Kamen volcanoes are seen in the magma sources and reservoirs in the upper mantle and background. Credit: Sergey Chirkov the crust. 14 // Eos July 2017
he Klyuchevskoy volcanic group in northeastern Russia, as seen from the International Space Station, viewed from the southeast. Credit: Earth Sci- T ence and Remote Sensing Unit, NASA Johnson Space Center A Unique Natural Laboratory tem requires an investigation of subsurface structures at a Because of its strong and variable activity, the KVG is a much larger scale. unique natural laboratory for studying volcanism in a subduction zone. Understanding how this zone functions The KISS Project requires detailed knowledge about the configuration of To undertake such a l arge-scale seismological investiga the subducted oceanic plates and about the distribution of tion of the KVG, we formed a consortium of institutions magma conduits and reservoirs within the mantle wedge from Russia, France, and Germany and designed the KISS and the crust. A particularly important question is experiment. We operated a temporary network of 83 seis whether the individual KVG volcanoes are fed from inde mographs between August 2015 and July 2016. pendent magma sources or whether they form a single The experiment took place in difficult terrain; helicop interconnected magmatic supersystem. ters and o ff-road trucks were needed to transport the Gathering information about the deep KVG structure equipment and field crews to the installation sites. An requires the use of geophysical methods. Past seismologi eruption-triggered mudflow destroyed one site, and a few cal studies [Koulakov et al., 2011] have revealed possible others were wrecked by bears. Despite the harsh environ pathways of melts ascending from the subducting slab ment, the team recovered data from 77 instruments (Fig and a multilevel system of magma reservoirs in the crust. ure 1b). However, the structures that these studies illuminated Initial inspection of seismograms indicates that the are restricted mainly to a few tens of kilometers sur network successfully recorded many tectonic and volcanic rounding Klyuchevskoy volcano, where most existing per earthquakes and volcanic tremors. The collected data set, manent seismic stations are located (Figure 1b). A full combined with records from permanent seismic stations, understanding of the behavior of the KVG magmatic sys will be used to study various types of earthquakes associ Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 15
The Klyuchevskoy volcano puffs gas during its 2016 eruption. Kamen Moreover, Kamchatka has a well-established record of and Bezymianny volcanoes are to the left. In 2015 and 2016, an interna- even larger caldera-forming eruptions in the Holocene tional collaboration conducted a large-scale geophysical survey of the [Braitseva et al., 1995], with the largest of them forcibly active group of volcanoes that includes Klyuchevskoy. Credit: Benoit ejecting about 150 cubic kilometers of rock fragments Taisne (tephra). Considering that at present more than half of Kam chatka volcanic magmas are generated below the KVG, we ated with the volcanic and magmatic activity and to image cannot ignore the possibility of a future extreme explo the crust and upper mantle with multiscale seismic sive event in this region. We expect the results of the KISS tomography. experiment to help us evaluate such extreme event sce These results will help us understand why exceptionally narios by improving our knowledge of the size of the KVG large amounts of melts are generated in the upper mantle crustal magmatic reservoirs, along with the volume of at the K amchatka-Aleutian subduction corner and how potentially explosive magmas they might contain. these magmas are transformed during the ascent through When the Klyuchevskoy volcano rumbled back to life the crust, producing the vigorous and very variable volca and erupted in April 2016 (see http://bit.ly/Klyuchevskoy nism we see at the surface. -eruption), the KISS network recorded the full sequence of reactivation leading up to the eruption. We will use this Monitoring the KVG for Hazardous Eruptions data set to improve our knowledge of how the rise of Volcanic eruptions regularly affect a few small settlements magma and the preeruptive buildup of pressure are located near the KVG, and they pose a significant threat to expressed in the continuous seismic signals. The data will aviation because many international flights that connect also help refine the routine monitoring of the KVG and North America and Asia pass over Kamchatka. Large explo other nearby volcanoes performed by the Kamchatka sive eruptions such as those of Bezymianny in 1956 and Branch of Russia’s Geophysical Survey and by the Kam Shiveluch in 1964, when about 1 cubic kilometer of erupted chatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team, which is oper material was ejected, might be particularly dangerous. ated by the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. 16 // Eos July 2017
Acknowledgments Dorendorf, F., U. Wiechert, and G. Wörner (2000), Hydrated sub-arc mantle: A source for the Kluchevskoy volcano, Kamchatka/Russia, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 175, 69–86, The KISS experiment was supported by the Russian Science https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(99)00288-5. Foundation (grant 14-47-00002), the French project Labex Fedotov, S. A., A. P. Khrenov, and N. A. Jarinov (1987), Klyuchevskoy volcano, its activity in 1932–1986 and possible development [in Russian], Volcanol. Seismol., 4, 3–16. [Volca- UnivEarth, and the Université Sorbonne Paris Cité project nol. Seismol., Engl. transl., 9, 501–521, 1990.] VolcanoDynamics. Sixty seismographs were provided by Koulakov, I., et al. (2011), Feeding volcanoes of the Kluchevskoy group from the results of Geophysical Instrument Pool Potsdam (GIPP) from the local earthquake tomography, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L09305, https://doi.org/10.1029/ 2 011GL046957. Helmholtz Center Potsdam-GFZ German Research Centre Levin, V., et al. (2002), Seismic evidence for catastrophic slab loss beneath Kamchatka, for Geosciences, and 23 were provided by the partner institu Nature, 418, 763–767, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature00973. tions from the Russian Academy of Sciences: the Institute of Yogodzinski, G. M., et al. (2001), Geochemical evidence for the melting of subducting oceanic lithosphere at plate edges, Nature, 409, 500–504, https://doi.org/10.1038/ Volcanology and Seismology, the Trofimuk Institute of Petro 35054039. leum Geology and Geophysics, and the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey. KISS data are stored in the GFZ Seis Author Information mological Data Archive operated by the GEOFON program Nikolai M. Shapiro (email: nshapiro@ipgp.fr), Institut de and will be openly available after a 3-year embargo period. Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France; Christoph Sens- We are grateful to Sergey Abramenkov, Benjamin Heit, Pavel Schönfelder, Birger G. Lühr, and Michael Weber, GFZ Kuznetsov, Ekaterina Kukarina, Roman Kulakov, Alexey Kot German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Ger- lyarov, Valeriy Gladkov, Petr Voropaev, Dmitry Droznin, many; Ilyas Abkadyrov and Evegeny I. Gordeev, Institute of Sergey Senyukov, and Vitaly Bliznetsov, who participated in Volcanology and Seismology, Far East Branch of the Russian the fieldwork. Special thanks are owed to Sergey Chirkov for Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia; Ivan providing field photographs and to the truck driver, Igor Koulakov and Andrey Jakovlev, Trofimuk Institute of Petro- Uteshev, as well as to the helicopter pilot, Gennady Kroshkin. leum Geology and Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Novosibirsk State University, Novosi- birsk, Russia; and Yulia A. Kugaenko and Vadim A. Saltykov, References Braitseva, O. A., et al. (1995), The ages of calderas, large explosive craters and active Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey, Russian Acad- volcanoes in the Kuril–Kamchatka region, Bull. Volcanol., 57, 383–402. emy of Sciences, P etropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 17
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