LOCAL ELECTIONS 2019 - DEHAVILLAND CONTENT TEAM MAY 2019 - DEHAVILLAND BRIEFING

DeHavilland Briefing

Local Elections
2019

DeHavilland Content Team
May 2019

Introduction
DeHavilland                                                                           Local Elections 2019

Introduction

Amid the drama engulfing Theresa May’s government, the speculation of a snap general election and the ‘will
we, won’t we’ of the possible European elections, it would be easy to overlook the local elections. However,
voting in 248 councils across England, alongside six mayoral races and all 11 councils in Northern Ireland
provides an opportunity to take the temperature of politics.

Firstly, and inevitably, the results will be pored over for signs of the public’s mood on the handling of Brexit. In
practical terms, local government faces questions over lost EU funding after the UK has left, but this sort of
election is also invariably seen as some of sort of referendum on the national politics of the day.

Secondly and more significantly, irrespective of geography, all results will be affected by a common factor
- funding. Local government cuts have been at the forefront of the Conservative Government’s austerity
programme. The National Audit Office calculated that local government spending power fell by 28.6% in real-
terms between 2010-11 and 2017-18. All councils, irrespective of their colour, are having to do more with less.

In this briefing, DeHavilland analyses the results of the 2019 local elections and how the unique confluence
of events could have affected and were affected by them in turn.

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DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2019                                                   www.dehavilland.co.uk

DeHavilland                                                                          Local Elections 2019

Analysis
      “Election Lesson 1: if you don’t give people something to vote for then they will not vote for you.”

That was the warning Labour MP Dame Margaret Hodge tweeted the morning after a night of disappointing
local election results for both her party and the Conservatives. Even with results still coming in, it became
clear that the Government was one course to lose hundreds of council seats, not entirely unexpected after
nine years in power. A greater surprise came from the underperformance of the Labour Party in the form of a
small net loss of seats at a point in the governing cycle where they would have been expected to be making
gains.

The emerging media narrative from the elections has been one of “a plague of on both your houses”
judgement from voters on the two main parties. Instead, the Liberal Democrats posted one of their strongest
performances in many years, picking up hundreds of council seats and taking control of others, including
Winchester City Council. Alongside the Greens and a surge of independent candidates, as Friday lunchtime
approached, they were the undisputed winners.

Many have been quick to suggest that the failure to deliver Brexit has been the main reason behind voters
turning away from the two main parties. The interplay between the dominating national issue and local
elections is hotly contested, but, for the Conservatives, the internal ructions around their handling of the issue
has undoubtedly taken a toll. Widely reported anger among the party’s activists and councillors, especially
among the decision to invite the Labour Party for talks has spilled over onto the doorstep. Taking Dame
Margaret’s words from the opening of this section, the Tories’ perceived failure to deliver Brexit means many
of their traditional supporters believe they have nothing to offer. Looking ahead to the European elections, the
failure of the Conservatives to launch their campaign suggests they are expecting a similar drubbing. Even
resolving Brexit in some form and electing a new leader, the party’s fortunes look bleak for the medium term
because of deep internal divisions.

On the other side of the House, many pro-Remain Labour MPs have been quick to seize upon the ambiguity
of their party’s stance on Brexit as the reason for their traditional base not rallying to them. In particular, the
failure to make gains in the Midlands and the North - areas the party needs to win to secure a Commons
majority - has been pinned by them on a weak commitment to a second referendum. Shadow Chancellor
John McDonnell certainly gleaned from the local elections that voters want Brexit sorted.

Certainly, the range of policies trialed by the Opposition in the run-up to these elections, including investment
in local bus services, have not brought voters over to them. Comparisons have been drawn between Jeremy
Corbyn’s performance and the gains achieved by Ed Miliband. However, the volatility of the political landscape
and overarching theme of Brexit means it would be unwise to look back for lessons. Nevertheless, these
results do not suggest that Corbyn’s Labour is on course for a landslide of the same scale Tony Blair achieved
22 years ago. Might we be on course to see a minority Labour government in the coming months?

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DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2019                                                  www.dehavilland.co.uk

DeHavilland                                                                       Local Elections 2019

The Liberal Democrats’ many gains at the hands of the Conservatives, including Bath and North East
Somerset, North Devon, North Norfolk, and Winchester councils, has led them to claim that their position of
stopping Brexit is vindicated. However, it would instead be better to read the success as a combination of the
strength of their local activists and the weakness of the two main parties’ grip on the wider country.

In the end, the local election results underpin the challenges facing both the Conservatives and Labour, of
which Brexit is only one element. Neither Theresa May nor Jeremy Corbyn look set to be able to claim victory
from these results. Instead, all eyes will be on the coming European elections, the Peterborough by-election
and, possibly, a general election sooner than 2022.

North of Tyne Mayoral election

The inaugural mayoral election for the North of Tyne Combined Authority was one of six mayoral races that
took place on 2 May. Covering three councils - Newcastle, North Tyneside, and Northumberland - the new
role has several powers and responsibilities.

These include chairing the Cabinet of the North of Tyne Combined Authority and having access to a £600m
fund over 30 years to support job creation. The combined authority will also be able to put in place a council
tax precept to pay for the elected mayor’s work.

Under the terms of the devolution deal this includes:

          •   Projects to improve education, skills and help people get into work.
          •   Local control of the £23 million per year budget for adult education.
          •   Powers to develop land for economic growth and regeneration.
          •   Projects that increase the growth and productivity of our rural communities.
          •   Projects to grow the digital sector and low-carbon economy.
          •   A joint committee to manage public transport across the North East.

This role should not be confused with the similarly titled Elected Mayor for North Tyneside, who leads North
Tyneside Council. Turnout in the election was 32.37%. Labour candidate Jamie Driscoll was elected on the
second round with 76,862 votes.

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DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2019                                              www.dehavilland.co.uk

DeHavilland                                                                          Local Elections 2019

Reaction
As expected, the media emphasised the impact of Brexit on the elections. The Times noted that both Labour
and Conservative figures were “punished” by voters, reporting that “councillors from both parties said that
Brexit had hurt them on the doorstep”. The Telegraph likewise painted the main narrative as one of losses
for both main parties. The Guardian also noted a “Brexit backlash”; The Express suggested that voters had
“savaged” Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn over their handling of Brexit. Referring to a perceived high level
of public anger at party leaders, the Daily Mail has run a piece exploring how a number of deliberately-spoilt
ballot papers had delayed results being announced across the country.

In an intervention which neatly encapsulated much of the sentiment in the press today, Sky News’ Political
Editor Beth Rigby quoted a Conservative source who warned that in Southwest England “a political map that
was almost completely blue will be almost completely orange”. Likewise, the New Statesman’s political editor
Stephen Bush wrote this morning that it would be the “Liberal Democrats and the Greens who will really have
a spring in their step” considering particularly strong showings overnight.

Psephologist and polling guru Sir John Curtice told the BBC: “It looks as though the key message from the
voters to the Conservatives and Labour is ‘a plague on both of your houses’”. Despite this, he told the Today
Programme that the Liberal Democrats’ positive results could be attributed less to Brexit policy and more to
the party “recovering from the coalition” and being “the party of protest” at the polls.

From the magazines, The Economist is today tying local elections to non-local issues with both major parties
shouldering the blame over Brexit. Prospect magazine summed up a feeling echoed across the board when
stating that UKIP have “failed to capitalise on Brexit frustration”. From the right, the Spectator - which noted
prior to the elections that doorstep reactions will have worried plenty of Conservatives - now emphasises the
noises coming from Labour’s leadership about needing to focus on Brexit.

A number of commentators echoed this sentiment. Writing for politics.co.uk, Chaminda Jayanetti argued that
a rise in support for independents was the key trend. The Conservative Home liveblog described a “very bad
performance for the Conservatives and a bad one for Labour”; the website’s editor Mark Wallace focused
heavily on the net losses for Labour and noted that the party’s prevarication on Brexit could have resulted
in the party being “punished from two different directions”. Matthew Parris for The Times calls the result a
“victory for clarity on Brexit”. Phil Waugh suggests for the HuffPost that an increased pro-remain vote will
ease the path for pro-Brexit candidates in future elections by splitting the pro-Remain vote. In contrast, Guido
Fawkes sought to play up the assertion that the Liberal Democrats’ vote share was more a reversion to the
mean than due to Brexit policy.

As in the media, political leaders from both main parties were quick to tie the results to Brexit, though differing
perspectives emerged on the lessons to be drawn. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn told the BBC that his party’s
policy was to “appeal to the people however they voted in 2016”. Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell made
an emphatic intervention on Twitter, citing a need to “sort” Brexit in light his party’s relatively weak showing.
McDonnell’s Tweet is being interpreted by the press as signifying a willingness on Labour’s part to agree a
compromise in cross-party talks. Similar lines came from elsewhere in the party as former International Trade
Secretary Barry Gardiner noted: “There are two competing principles here and we are trying to hold them in

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DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2019                                                  www.dehavilland.co.uk

DeHavilland                                                                         Local Elections 2019

tension”. Labour’s Campaigns chair Andrew Gwynne told the Today Programme spoke of a “tough set of
elections” for Labour in which Brexit “undoubtedly […] played a part in the results”. This line was further
reinforced by Party Chair Ian Lavery, who suggested that Brexit was “trumping” the party’s anti-austerity
messaging. Some pushback against this came from the SNP’s leader in Holyrood Nicola Sturgeon, who
suggested that this approach would result in Labour’s “troubles […] just beginning”.

Labour’s pro-Remain MPs were particularly active on social media as results came in; MPs sought to
emphasise that the party’s “equivocation” on Brexit had resulted in voters shifting to the Greens and the Liberal
Democrats. Wes Streeting argued that “looking both ways on Brexit” was damaging the party, while Anna
Turley cautioned against continuing to “stand in the middle of the road”. Bermondsey and Old Southwark MP
Neil Coyle echoed these sentiments and criticized the party’s policy of constructive ambiguity as “insulting”
to councillors. A middle ground was struck by Wigan MP Lisa Nandy, who argued that a “simplistic leave vs
remain narrative” was not the main issue facing the party.

Similar messaging was coming from the centre of the Conservative party. Ruth Davidson, Conservative leader
in Scotland, spoke on ITV’s Good Morning Britain to suggest that the results “should really focus minds” on
the cross-party Brexit talks taking place in Westminster. Brexit Minister James Cleverly was rather focused on
attacking Labour’s relatively weak showing and bemoaned Conservative councillors being “unfairly punished
by voters because of Brexit delay”.

Pro-leave Tories were quick to place the blame at the feet of Theresa May. Sir Bernard Jenkin MP suggested
to the BBC that the party would be “toast” if it “does not mend its ways pretty quickly”, while Crispin Blunt MP
told the Today Programme that a new party leader would be needed “to get Brexit over the line”.

For the Liberal Democrats, however, the tone was significantly more positive – former Environment Secretary
Sir Edward Davey declared the party was “back in business” in light of significant gains. Davey’s tone was
echoed by party leader Vince Cable, who called his party the “big winners” of the election. Cable appeared
on the BBC to paint the party as having been “clear and honest about what we believe”.

For the Green Party, leader Caroline Lucas praised the “amazing night” for the party and cited its strong pro-
remain and anti-climate change messaging as helping to bring about a “green wave”. The Green Party itself
celebrated “the biggest election night in its history” in a press release. While the party did not run candidates
in the election, Chuka Umunna, Spokesperson for Change UK – The Independent Group, commented that
the election illustrated that “the two main parties are responsible” for “broken” politics in the UK. UKIP leader
Gerard Batten welcomed the party’s increased vote share in Sunderland but broadly sought to emphasise the
upcoming European elections.

With counting having started in Northern Ireland’s local elections, reaction remains scarce, though the BBC
is reporting on a “really bad election for the UUP in parts of Belfast”. The Irish Times notes that the murder
of journalist Lyra McKee by dissident Republicans will be a hot-button issue, adding a further element to the
Brexit debate. The New Statesman notes that the ongoing debate over powersharing talks - due to resume
on Tuesday - will also play a key role in determining the outcome.

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DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2019                                                 www.dehavilland.co.uk

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