Kompendium 5.0 Regulation Section
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Kompendium 5.0 Regulation Section
Paris Climate Agreement: Immediate change of direction
Global emissions in gigatons CO2eq
200
180 Business as usual szenario
Today's climate policy
160
Today's climate protection pledges
140 Consistent with the 2° target
120 Consistent with the 1.5° target
Historical
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
2062
2064
2066
2068
2070
2072
2074
2076
2078
2080
2082
2084
2086
2088
2090
2092
2094
2096
2098
2100
Source: Climate Action Tracker Project, September 2019
Regulation 2Burdensharing: Different sector goals
Required reduction performance compared to 2005 in percent
ETS* EU-GHG-target Non-ETS +
sector (Basis: 2005) sector
► Green Deal: Significant
-21% -12% -10%
tightening of targets
2020
planned for 2030:
► Commission: -55%
2030 -43% -40% -34% -30% ► Parlament: -65%
► The Non-ETS sector should
Green save twice as much in 10
Deal TBA -55% (?) TBA years after 2020 as in 15
2030 years before.
How? Emission trading Inclusion of mandatory
national targets. ► The effort per ton of CO2
Establishment of a
market stabilization Supporting measures, safed will increase
reserve for example emission significantly.
Avoidance of relocation standards
effects
Regulation 3Apart from the amount of emissions: The EU is moving ahead
undeterred
Long term goals of the EU in percent – base year 1990
+
-20%
Reduction of greenhouse -21%
emissions
-40% ► The Commision expects the
2020 climate targets to be
20% largely achieved.
Market share of renewables 21%
on grosss final energy consumption ► Although the rest of the world
27% has not yet followed suit, the
EU plans to tighten ist targets
Efficiency target - reduction
significantly after 2020.
-20%
of energy consumption per -17%
unit of GDP
-27%
Target 2020 Forecast 2020 Proposal 2030
Sources: BMWi, UBA, AGEB
Regulation 4WLTP: A new test requires a new limit value setting
WLTP – illustration of an average car trip worldwide
Low Middle High Extra high
140 The WLTP
should apply globally.
120 Through the implementation
of the WLTP the test costs
of the manufacturers were
100 intended to be
Velocity in km/h
reduced.
80
60
40
20
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Time in seconds
+ ► A test cycle should enable a legally compliant comparability.
► Today there are different cycles. EU and China use the NEFZ, the USA and Japan have their own tests.
► The informations on the emissions of a car depend heaviliy on the test cycle; they cannot be simply converted.
► In the WLTP, the tests give higher values than in the previous measurement cycle, they are not comparable.
► But: the WLTP will ‘only‘ be a test. It enables comparability under standardized conditions, thus represents an approximation of global driving behavior, but does not determine
a value that can be achieved under all circumstances.
Sources: EU, UN
Regulation 5RDE Tests: Large spread even with maximum standardization
Limits of standardization with the RDE consumption measurement
1 Measuring technology Expected spread of the results: 8 gCO2/km
• Standardized PEMS system per vehicle (similiar within the organization performing the measurement)
• Calibration of the PEMS system by comparison with test bench measurements.
• But: The achievable measurement inaccuracy with current technology is ± 2,5 percent
2 Environment & driver Expected
Ein einzelner Wert kann nur einen Mittelwert spread of the results : 10 gCO2/km
darstellen.
• Defined environmental conditions (moderate temperature, good weather, maximum light wind)
• Trained drivers, who orientate themselves on the gearshift point display and create reproducible journeys
• But: Even minor deviations, e. g. in wind and driving style, lead to visible scatter.
3 Route Expected spread of the results : 12 gCO2/km
• Trips on a reference route with the same trip time and direction.
• No fixed time windows but adaptation to comparable traffic volumes on the reference route
• But: Traffic density, average speed and start / stop proportions are not reproducible.
4 Vecicle Expected spread of the results : 6 gCO2/km
• Comparable vehicles in terms of run-in condition, superstructures, tire pressure, etc.
• Comparable vehicle use: payload, electrical consumers, window opening or driving mode.
• But: Reactions to environmental conditions (e. g. temperature) influence consumption.
Regulation 6Better regulations: Emission limits for vehicles do not go far enough
To reduce emissions, users and the state must also be involved
Integrated approach: Include all areas in regulation
Total emission in tons =
Consumption in liters* Emission factor in CO2/liter * Mileage
Car industry State Car driver
Optimization combustion engine Infrastructure condition Driving distance (how
Alternative fuels Construction sites management much?)
Lightweight construction Promotion of low-emission drives Driving style (how?)
Electrification of the powertrain and fuels Vehicle selection (with
Use of digitization (avoidance of parking search Stock renewal what?)
traffic)
+
► Vehicle limits regulate only the emission potential.
► Real emissions are determined just as much by user behavior and the infrastructure.
Regulation 7Limit values only affect new cars
Inventory is not part of regulation
In the EU, a good 15.3 million new In total, around 255 million passenger
cars were registered per year in cars are registered in the EU.
2019.
Sources: ACEA, 2020; VDA ,2020
Regulation 8Fewer new registrations in the eastern member states
Volume ratio of new registrations to vehicle
Country inventory in 2018
Luxembourg 12,7% Share of new registrations
Belgium 9,4%
Denmark 8,4% < 2,5 percent
United Kingdom 7,5%
> 2.5 percent
Germany 7,3%
Sweden 7,3% > 5 percent
Austria 6,9%
≥ 7,5 percent
France 6,8%
Slovenia 6,4%
Ireland 5,8%
Spain 5,5%
Netherlands 5,2%
Italy 4,9%
Czech Republic 4,5%
Portugal 4,3%
Slovakia 4,2%
Hungary 3,8%
Croatia 3,6%
Finland 3,5%
Estonia 3,4%
Latvia 2,4%
Cyprus 2,4%
Poland 2,3%
Lithuania 2,3%
Romania 2,0%
Bulgaria 1,2%
Sources: Eurostat 2020, ACEA 2019
Malta, Greece N.N.
Regulation 9European Burden Sharing in the Transport Sector
Reduction targets of the EU-15 countries for the period 2005 to 2030
Netherlands
Luxemburg
Schweden
Germany
Denmark
Portugal
Belgium
Finland
Greece
Austria
Ireland
France
Spain
Italy
UK
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
Reduction Target Status 2017
Source: EU Kommission; EEA (V23)
Regulation 10The strictest CO2 target values for passenger cars apply in the EU
In g CO2/km according to New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)
Actual values 2002 – 2018 Target values 2020 – 2030
230
210 213 135
205
190 187 130
170 172 120
150 115
130 125
110 117
99
95 105 93
90
81
70 74
59
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030
US EU Japan China*
+ ► The EU limit is expected to remain the strictest in the world until 2030.
► In the USA, passenger cars account for only about one third of new registrations, the emission value of the light trucks in 2017 was 208.2 g/km, the planned
limit value for 2025 was 140 g/km (EU LNfz 2017: 156 g/km; 2025: 125 g/km)
► In 2018, the EU Commission decided to reduce the limit by 15 percent between 2021 and 2025 and to set a minus of 37.5 percent by 2030.
► Under the Green Deal, European targets for 2025 and 2030 are expected to be further tightened.
*Without diesel vehicles
Source: ICCT, 2020
Regulation 11In 2019 it looked like the 2021 taget values were far away
Data for manufacturers with over 200,000 new registrations in the EU28
Calculation of the target value in gCO2/km until 2019 Calculation of the target value in gCO2/km from 2020
X=130 gCO2/km +0.0457*(Ø New car mass in kg – 1,392.4kg) X=95 gCO2/km +0,0333*(Ø New car mass in kg – 1,392.4kg)
170
120
70
20
-30
Emissions 2019 Target Value 2021 Way to go
Source: EEA, 2020
Regulation 12Emissions from new cars down sharply
Average CO2 emissions of new cars 2019
CO2 Emissionen
Country in g per km
< 100 g per km
Netherlands 98.43 Higher emissions
Portugal 105.32 in the East.
Four EU countries < 110 g per km
Malta 109.42 below 110.
Denmark 111.89 One below 100 < 120 g pro km
Greece 113.75
< 130 g per km
France 113.98
Irleand 115.32 ≥ 130 g per km
Croatia 115.60
Italy 119.27
Finland 119.40
Spain 119.72
Belgium 121.32
Slovenia 121.52
Netherlands 123.71
EU 28 122.39
Romania 124.34
Sweden 125.48
Austria 126.84
Cyprus 127.69
UK 127.95
Czech Republic 128.65
Bulgaria 130.10
Slovakia 131.22
Hungary 131.84
Lithuania 131.97
Latvia 131.98
Germany 133.00
Poland 133.46
Sources: EEA, 2020
Luxembourg 137.57
Regulation 13Pooling: Three cross-group associations to date
Existing brand pools in the passenger car sector
Pool 14 Pool 13 Pool 12 Pool 11 Pool 10 Pool 9 Pool 8
VW Toyota Land- Suzuki Renault Peugeot Mitsubishi
Skoda Mazda Rover Suzuki Dacia Opel Corp.
Audi Jaguar Thailand Atovaz Citroen Mitsubishi
Seat Suzuki Alpine Europe
Porsche Magyar Mitsubishi
Bugatti Suzuki Thailand
Maruti
Pool 7 Pool 6 Pool 5 Pool 4 Pool 3 Pool 2 Pool 1
Kia Corp. Hyundai Honda Ford FCA Daimler BMW
Kia Czech Motor Werke FCA USA AMG BMW M
Slovakia Hyundai Honda UK Ford India Alfa- Rolls-
Assan Honda Ford Romeo Royce
Hyundai Turkiye Motor Tesla
Motor Volvo (ab 2019)
(ab 2020) Honda
Polestar (from
Source: EEA, 2020; Automobilwoche 2020 (from 2020)
2020)
Regulation 14Light commercial vehicles also move into focus
Emissions of new registrations in g CO2/km according to New European Driving Cycle
Actual values 2009 – 2018 Target values 2020 – 2030
250 166 135 140 103
250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
2023
2020
2021
2022
2024
2025
2030
2006
2011
2016
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2017
2018
USA EU Japan China
*Without diesel vehicles
Source: ICCT, 2020
Regulation 15LNfz: In 2018, all manufacturers undercut their emissions target
Data for manufacturers with over 50,000 new registrations in the EU28
Opel
Daimler Ford Werke Volkswagen Nissan Automobile Renault FCA Italy Peugeot Citroen
210
160
110
60
10
-40
Emissions 2018 Target 2018 Difference to the target of the year 2018
Source: EEA, 2020
Regulation 16RED II: Renewable Energy Directive sets targets for 2030
RED II shifts transportation targets to advanced biofuels and includes PtX
14%
Target for 2030
+
► RED II (Renewable Energy Directive) is to be transposed into national
12%
law by mid-2021.
3,4%
10% ► Target: 32% of energy consumption of electricity, heat, transport
should be renewable in 2030.
1,7%
8% ► Transport target: nominal quota of 14% renewable energy sources in
3,5%
transport energy consumption.
1,8%
6% ► Advanced biofuels and biofuels from residues can count double
toward the nominal quota.
4% ► Electricity in road transport can be credited 4 times, in rail transport
6% 6% 1.5 times.
2% ► Food-based biofuels should not be expanded and should not exceed a
7% share in any country.
0%
► PtX can be credited if 70% emission reduction is achieved.
nominal real
► Calculation method to be available by 01/22.
Conventional biofuels Advanced biofuels Biofuels from residues ► With the French electricity mix, 70% is already achieved today.
Source: Öko-Institut, 2019
Regulation 17Those who emit a lot of CO2 also pay a lot
Taxation of fuels within the EU in euro cents per liter - Status: 22.02.21
0 30 60 90 120 0 30 60 90 120
Italy Netherlands 111,6
86,8
Belgium 84,5
Finland 102,0
France 83,6 Greece 100,9
Finland 78,8 Italy 100,2
Sweden 78,0 Sweden 95,6
Netherlands 76,9 Portugal 95,0
Portugal 76,5 Denmark 94,0
Ireland 75,6 France 93,6
Denmark 70,4 Germany 88,8
Germany 67,7 Ireland 87,5
Slovenia 67,2 Belgium 83,5
Greece Diesel 66,8 Estonia Gasoline 78,3
Croatia 65,8 Croatia 77,0
Malta 65,7 Slovakia 75,9
Latvia 62,5 Malta 75,4
Hungary 59,7 Latvia 73,7
Cyprus 59,5 Spain 69,3
Austria 59,4 Czech Republic 68,8
Slovakia 58,7 Austria 68,4
Spain 57,9 Lithuania 66,9
Czech Republic 57,0 Luxembourg 65,0
Estonia 56,8 Slovenia 64,4
Lithuania 56,4 Cyprus 61,7
Poland 53,2 Hungary 59,9
Luxembourg 52,0 Poland 57,6
Romania 51,5 Romania 54,6
Bulgaria 48,9 Bulgaria 52,2
Source: EU Kommission DG Transport, Weekly Oil Bulletin
Regulation 18Guiding Instrument for Energy and Industry: The ETS (Cap and Trade)
Cap - The state specifies a reduction
Volume of certificates in the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in millions of tons
Cap Cap Cap
3. Trading period Reduction rate until 2020
1. Trading period 2. Trading period Reduction rate
2400 -1.74%
after
2200 2020
-2.2%
2000
-21%
1800
Target
1600 2030
1400
1200
1000
2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030
+ ► Precisely: the emission target of -21 percent is safely achieved by the falling cap.
► Allocation: initially 20 percent auction, to increase to 60 percent by 2020.
► Flexibel: Which trading participant provides the savings is not mandated.
Sources: EU, DIW
Regulation 19Guiding Instrument for Energy and Industry: The ETS (Cap and Trade)
Trade - Emissions trading ensures efficient distribution of reduction burdens
Fall 1: Fall 2:
Emission restriction Emissions trading – Certificate price at 30 euros per ton
Past Permitted Reduction Total Past Permitted Certificates Reduction Made Reduction Trade Trade Total
emissions future costs /ton expendi- emissions future received in costs /ton Reducti costs In tons in Euro expenditure
in tons emissions ture in tons emissions tons on after trade
in tons in tons in tons
Plant 1
5,000 4,500 20 10,000 5,000 4,500 20 1,000 20,000 5,000
Total
500 15,000
Plant 2 9,000
5,000 4,500 50 25,000 5,000 4,500 50 0 0 15,000
10,000 9,000 35,000 Total 10,000 9,000 9,000 1,000 20,000 500 15,000 20,000
+
► In the example, plant 1 makes the entire reduction, but is reimbursed three quarters of the costs through emissions trading. In the example, both plants save
several thousand euros compared to an emissions restriction.
► The concrete distribution of the reduction burdens results from the certificate price and the respective reduction costs.
► Participants with high abatement costs co-finance the reduction performance of others.
Regulation 20Emissions trading in road transport: Is it possible?
One step toward an integrated approach would be to include road transport in emissions trading. Fuel consumption can be
precisely converted into emissions. Heavy trucks cannot be integrated into the existing limit value system - no problem with
emissions trading. The question remains as to who should hold the certificates:
Upstream – Service station operator Midstream – Car manufacturer
For each liter sold, the corresponding certificates must be purchased. When a new car is sold, a quantity of certificates must be purchased that
1L gasoline = 2.3 kg CO2 corresponds to the expected emissions of the vehicle during its lifetime.
1L diesel = 2.6 kg CO2 At 130 g CO2/km and 200,000 km: Certificates for 26 tons
+ Technically very easy to implement + Few financially strong demanders
+ Few financially strong demanders
+ Actual emissions are limited. Inaccurate - A theoretical quantity is purchased.
–
The manufacturer only determines the emission potential, not the real
emissions.
– Only indirectly affects the actual polluter of the emissions. The link to the – He only has an indirect influence on the real emissions.
motorist is the price signal, as with a mineral oil tax.
Regulation 21Emissions trading: a sensible addition
The inclusion of road transport in emissions trading can offer advantages
ETS gas station
Talerstraße 111, 12345 Entenhausen
Gas station no. : 000000000xyz
+
StNr. Station : 13/456/xyzxyz
StNr. Society: 01 234 56789
Document number 1234/005/00001 03.03.2021 9:22 Simple: The necessary certificate quantity per tank filling is easy to
Card payment calculate. The necessary purchase can be handled with the fuel bill.
Favorable for the driver: At a certificate price of € 30 targeted by
*Super gasoline 65.13 EUR A #* the EU for 2020, the liter of gasoline would cost 7 cents more.
*Zp 03 43.45 l 1.499 EUR/l #*
Favorable for society: The avoidance costs of road traffic per ton
are well over € 30. Emissions would be avoided where it is
*EU-ETS Emission allowances 3,04 EUR #* C* cheaper.
* 43.45l x 2.33 kg CO2/l = 101.24 kg CO2
However, since transport would buy massive amounts of
* x 30.00 EUR/Authorization for 1,000 kg CO2
certificates, other sectors would have to reduce significantly more.
Gesamtbetrag 68,17 EUR A sense of proportion is needed to prevent the other sectors from
being overburdened.
Typ Netto VAT Brutto Therefore: Emissions trading is a sensible addition to the current
A: 19.00% 54.73 10.40 65.13
limits.
C: 0.00% 3.04 0.00 3.04
Thank you for visiting – have a good trip!
Regulation 22You can also read
