JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook Crop monitoring European neighbourhood Kazakhstan
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Issued: 28 June 2021
JRC MARS Bulletin – Global outlook
Kazakhstan, June 2021
JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook
Crop monitoring European neighbourhood
Kazakhstan
June 2021
Fair yield outlook for spring cereals but
decreased prospects for winter cereals
Favourable weather conditions helped spring sowing to be
completed on time, and emergence has been satisfactory
despite reduced water supply. Yield forecasts are close to
the historical trend for spring cereals but more rainfall is
needed to sustain this fair outlook.
The main winter wheat producing areas presented soil
moisture deficits during most of the growing period, and
hot temperatures during the critical stage of grain filling
negatively affected yield formation; therefore our
forecasts are below the 5 year average.
Warmer-than-usual thermal conditions in May and June
ensured adequate establishment of spring cereals, which
are slightly advanced and show near or slightly below-
average leaf area expansion and biomass accumulation.
Crop model indicators such as leaf area index, water
limited biomass and storage organ weight are below
optimal for winter cereals, as water supply limited growth
during most of the growing period and hot temperatures
in May and June accelerated crop development, adversely
shortening the grain-filling phase and hastening
senescence.
JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021
Meteorological overview
Rainfall deficits and hot temperatures from May to June
In general, slightly colder-than-usual thermal conditions colder than usual until mid-May. Above-average
prevailed from December until the beginning of May, after temperatures dominated during the second half of May
which temperatures mostly fluctuated above the average, and in June. Temperatures were particularly high at the
particularly during the last two weeks of May. end of May in Pavlodarskaya, where maximum
Rainfall was typically scarce in December, January and temperatures reached 35 °C. After a dry start to the
February, and then generally exceeded the average until review period (1 December – 20 June) in Pavlodarskaya,
April. In May and June, precipitation was below the from February rainfall remained mainly above average
seasonal level, with the exception of normal values in until the beginning of May, after which it returned to below
Zapadno-Kazachstanskaya. The period from December to seasonal values. The other two regions received lower
June was particularly dry in Turkestan, with around 30% rainfall than usual, with the exception of the rainy month
less rainfall than the long term average (LTA). Radiation of March. For the review period as a whole, the east
was positive in all regions. received 20% less rainfall than usual. Radiation was
slightly above average.
- In North Kazakhstan (Severo-Kazachstanskaya,
- In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya
Akmolinskaya, Kustanayskaya oblasts), lower-than-usual
and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), temperatures fluctuated
average temperatures generally prevailed from December
around the average. In the second half of May and first
to April, with the most distinct negative thermal anomalies
two dekads of June, daily temperatures considerably
occurring in January and February. During winter, most of
exceeded the average.
the agricultural areas were covered with snow, which
For the review period as a whole, rainfall was close to the
started melting in mid-April when minimum temperatures
average in Zapadno-kazachstanskaya. In contrast,
stabilised above zero. From the last dekad of April,
Aktyubinskaya oblast was characterised by below-
prevailing temperatures were close to the LTA and above
average precipitation values (mainly concentrated in
5 °C. From the last dekad of May, a hot spell hit these
March). Cumulative radiation was positive in all regions.
regions. Daily maximum temperatures frequently
- In the agricultural regions of South Kazakhstan
exceeded 30 °C, reaching 35 °C in Severo-
(Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya, Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya
Kazachstanskaya during the last week of May.
oblasts), cold waves occurred in December and January.
Rainfall was below average from December until the
Temperatures fluctuated around the average from
second half of February, but later it became more
February until April, and increased to above-average
frequent until the end of April. In general, May and June
values in May and June.
were drier than usual, with precipitation about 20% of the
A rainfall deficit prevailed throughout the period in
LTA in Kustanayskaya. Cumulative radiation exceeded the
Turkestan and Kyzylordinskaya, while Almatinskaya and
average.
Jambylskaya were mainly dry, but close to seasonal
- In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-
values in March and April. Radiation was slightly above
kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts), daily
average values.
average temperatures during the review period were
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JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021
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JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021
Crop growth conditions
Cumulative NDVI values from 1 May to
20 June show several negative
anomalies. In the south, this can be
attributed to the seasonal lack of
rainfall and to the warm temperatures
in May and June that accelerated crop
senescence for winter wheat. The
anomaly in the east can be explained
by the negative impact of thermal
surplus on crop growth, combined with
decreased water supply in May. This is
also confirmed in general by the lower-
than-usual water balance. In the
northern part of the country, the
prevailing positive anomaly indicates
good crop establishment for spring
crops.
The map displays the differences between
the cumulative Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1 May to 20
June 2021 and the short-term average
(STA, 2016-2020) for the same period.
Positive anomalies (in green) reflect above-
average canopy density or early crop
development, while negative anomalies (in
red) reflect below-average biomass
accumulation or late crop development.
Winter cereals
High temperatures during grain filling reduce yield expectations
Reduced growth during the growing cycle and high biomass, storage organ weight) are below average for
temperatures during grain filling decreased yield winter cereals and yield expectations are moderate.
expectations to below the average for winter cereals. Favourable conditions during the remainder of the grain-
filling period might slightly improve the final prospect.
- In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-
- In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya
kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts), crop
and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), soil moisture contents were
development remained slightly delayed for wheat during
generally adequate in the regions where winter wheat is
winter, due to colder-than-usual thermal conditions.
mainly cultivated. In these western areas, biomass
Additionally, a soil moisture deficit reduced crop growth.
accumulation was close to the average, but high
Crop model indicators (leaf area index, water limited
temperatures at the end of the period partially reduced
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JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021
the positive outlook and yield forecasts are close to the advanced. The below-optimal water supply limited growth
average. until May, when hot temperatures hit the winter crops,
- In South Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya, accelerating crop development and adversely shortening
Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), winter wheat (which the grain-filling phase. The high temperatures hastened
is mainly confined to South Kazakhstan) passed the winter senescence and crop biomass values remained sub-
months in good condition and started re-growth after optimal. Yield forecasts for winter cereals are below the
dormancy in mid-March. Phenological crop development average.
was slightly delayed until May, and then became slightly
Spring cereals and grain maize
Fair outlook for spring cereals despite dry May
In the country’s main spring cereal producing region in the - In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya
North, the sowing campaign was completed on time under and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), timely sowing at the
warm and dry weather conditions. Crops established well beginning of May and above-average temperatures
despite reduced soil moisture. The development of spring ensured good establishment of spring crops. Crop
crops is in general advanced and the outlook is close to development is generally advanced. Soil moisture
the average, but further summer rainfall is needed to contents were generally adequate in Zapadno-
sustain this outlook. Kazachstanskaya but below average in Aktyubinskaya.
Adequate water supply has resulted in close-to-average
- In the most important spring cereal producing
canopy expansion for spring cereals in Zapadno-
macroregion, North Kazakhstan (Kustanayskaya,
Kazachstanskaya. Water shortages led to below-average
Severo-kazachstanskaya and Akmolinskaya oblasts), the
leaf area indices in Aktyubinskaya, where spring cereals
sowing campaign started slightly delayed because of a
are mainly cultivated. The yield forecasts are slightly
late spring, but the dry and warm weather in May allowed
below the average for spring cereals.
the sowing campaign to be completed on time during the
- In South Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya,
first dekad of June. Despite the reduced soil moisture,
Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), sowing of spring
crops established well, sustained by light precipitation in
grain crops started during the first dekad of April and
June. Crops are in good condition. The development of
experienced slow initial progress due to the rainfall in
spring cereals is slightly advanced and in general at
April. However, it later progressed well and was mainly
tillering phase. According to our model simulations and
completed during the first dekad of May. Spring wheat and
analysis of satellite images, leaf area expansion and
barley emerged under good conditions, but high
biomass accumulation are near to or slightly below
temperatures combined with below-average precipitation
average levels for spring cereals. Increased water supply
negatively affected growth from the second half of May.
is needed to maintain the yield potential for spring crops.
Our models show sub-optimal leaf area development for
Yield forecasts are close to average for spring cereals.
spring cereals and yield forecasts are below the trend.
- In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-
kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts), sowings
Grain maize in Kazakhstan is generally irrigated. Biomass
were concluded within the optimal time window, at the
accumulation is therefore close to the potential level and
beginning of June. The higher-than-usual temperatures at
the inter-annual variation of yield indicators is relatively
the end of May, combined with a soil moisture deficit,
small. The sowing campaign started at the end of April.
constrained growth and leaf area expansion, particularly
Grain maize crops are currently advanced and the current
in Pavlodarskaya. According to our model simulations,
yield expectation is fair, with yield forecasts above
growth indicators are slightly below the average. Yield
average.
forecasts are maintained slightly lower than the trends for
spring cereals.
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JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021
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JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021
Crop yield forecast
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - June 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Crop MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Winter wheat 1.96 1.98 1.88 – 4.4 – 5.4
Spring wheat 1.14 1.15 1.15 + 0.2 – 0.2
Winter barley 2.24 1.87 2.15 – 3.9 + 15
Spring barley 1.47 1.34 1.43 – 2.6 + 7.0
Grain maize 5.92 6.18 6.21 + 4.8 + 0.4
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - winter wheat - June 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Country MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Kazakhstan 1.96 1.98 1.88 – 4.4 – 5.4
East Kazakhstan 2.11 1.57 2.08 – 1.1 + 33
North Kazakhstan — — — — —
Northwest Kazakhstan 2.05 2.28 2.04 – 0.4 – 11
South Kazakhstan 1.94 1.96 1.83 – 5.6 – 6.2
Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - spring wheat - June 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Country MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Kazakhstan 1.14 1.15 1.15 + 0.2 – 0.2
East Kazakhstan 1.07 1.01 1.05 – 2.4 + 4.3
North Kazakhstan 1.15 1.17 1.16 + 0.8 – 0.2
Northwest Kazakhstan 1.04 1.02 0.99 – 4.4 – 2.8
South Kazakhstan 1.87 1.86 1.79 – 3.9 – 3.6
Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - winter barley - June 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Country MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Kazakhstan 2.24 1.87 2.15 – 3.9 + 15
East Kazakhstan — — — — —
North Kazakhstan — — — — —
Northwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
South Kazakhstan 2.24 1.87 2.15 – 3.9 + 15
Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - spring barley - June 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Country MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Kazakhstan 1.47 1.34 1.43 – 2.6 + 7.0
East Kazakhstan 1.21 1.09 1.18 – 2.4 + 8.3
North Kazakhstan 1.42 1.26 1.38 – 2.9 + 9.7
Northwest Kazakhstan 1.02 1.01 0.99 – 3.3 – 1.9
South Kazakhstan 2.04 1.95 2.01 – 1.7 + 2.9
Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - grain maize - June 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Country MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Kazakhstan 5.92 6.18 6.21 + 4.8 + 0.4
East Kazakhstan — — — — —
North Kazakhstan — — — — —
Northwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
South Kazakhstan 5.92 6.18 6.21 + 4.8 + 0.4
Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
NB: Yields are f orecast f or crops with more than 10 000 ha per country.
Sources: 1990-2020 data f or area and yields come f rom Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of
Kazakhstan - Statistics committee and Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
2021 yields come f rom MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 20.06.2020).
The column header '%21/5yrs’ stands f or the 2021 change with respect to the 5-year average (%).
Similarly, '%21/20’ stands f or the 2021 change with respect to 2020 (%).
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JRC MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 28 June 2021
The JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring European Legal notice
Neighbourhood is a JRC–European Commission Neither the European Commission nor any person acting
publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 – on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use,
Directorate for Sustainable Resources) which might be made of this publication.
JRC MARS Bulletins are available at
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins
Disclaimer
Analysis and reports The geographic borders are purely a graphical
S. Bassu, L. Nisini, G. Ronchetti representation and are only intended to be indicative.
The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official
Reporting support European Commission position.
SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern
Edition
S. Bassu, B. Baruth Technical note
The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as
Data production a reference is based on an archive of data covering
MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup 1980-2020.
(NL), VITO (BE)
Contact
JRC D5/MARS4CAST
JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu
Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of
the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission
is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout
the whole policy cycle.
PDF: KJ-BQ-21-007-EN-N ISSN 2600-2817 doi: 10.2760/75724
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