JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook Crop monitoring European neighbourhood Kazakhstan
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Issued: 27 September 2021
JRC MARS Bulletin – Global outlook
Kazakhstan, September 2021
JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook
Crop monitoring European neighbourhood
Kazakhstan
September 2021
Prolonged rainfall deficit largely reduces yields
Dry conditions negatively impacted crops in the main
cereals producing areas. In addition, high temperatures
shortened the duration of the growing cycle and negatively
affected final yield. More favourable water supply and
thermal conditions helped crops in the eastern areas to
maintain a moderate yield prospect. In general yield
forecasts are below the 5-year average for winter and
spring cereals.
In the main spring cereal producing regions crops
established well in June, but the continued rain deficit
affected the growth resulting in below-average leaf area
expansion and biomass accumulation. Additionally, high
temperatures during the grain filling stage accelerated
crop development and senescence. The harvesting
campaign is currently ongoing and yield expectations are
low.
The main winter wheat producing areas presented soil
moisture deficits during most of the growing period, and
hot temperatures during yield formation and ripening
affected final yields. The prospects are well below the 5-
year average.
MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 27 September 2021
Meteorological overview
Dry conditions and warm July and August
Above-average temperatures dominated in July and - In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya
August in all the regions, particularly at the beginning of and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), extremely high temperatures
July. Dry conditions characterised the main agricultural characterised the period.
areas of the north, northwest and south. Radiation levels In Zapadno-kazachstanskaya rainfall was above the LTA
exceeded the average. in June and scarce for the rest of the period.
Aktyubinskaya oblast was characterised by below-
- In North Kazakhstan (Severo-Kazachstanskaya,
average precipitation values that were concentrated at the
Akmolinskaya, Kustanayskaya oblasts), daily maximum
end of the first dekad of July (around 50 mm from 6 to 9
temperatures frequently exceeded 30°C, reaching 36-
July).
37°C on 2 July in all the main agricultural regions.
- In the agricultural regions of South Kazakhstan
Rainfall was below average, particularly in Kustanayskaya
(Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya, Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya
where precipitation was about 45% of the LTA and the
oblasts), the most important positive anomalies were
period was the driest since 1991.
registered in Turkestan and Kyzylordinskaya at the
- In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-
beginning of July when maximum temperatures were up
kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts),
to 10°C higher than usual.
temperatures fluctuated mainly around the average.
Rainfall reached 60% of the seasonal values in
Notable are the high daily maximum temperatures, close
Almatinskaya and was nearly absent in Jambylskaya,
to 36°C, reached in Pavlodarskaya on 5 July. In
Turkestan and Kyzylordinskaya with values of 17%, 5%
Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-kazachstanskaya, rainfall was
and 13% of the LTA respectively. For Jambylskaya,
close to the average until the second dekad of July after
Turkestan the period was the driest in our records.
which it decreased slightly below seasonal values. For the
review period as a whole, Karagandinskaya received
around 38% less rainfall than usual.
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MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 27 September 2021
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MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 27 September 2021
Crop canopy conditions
Cumulative NDVI values from 1 July
to 10 August show several negative
anomalies that can be observed in
most cropland areas of North and
Northwest Kazakhstan, and in some
areas of East Kazakhstan. These can
be explained by limited water supply
and high temperatures that
prevailed at the beginning of July.
The anomaly in the south can be
attributed to the prolonged lack of
rainfall and to the warm
temperatures that accelerated crop
senescence. The NDVI anomalies in
southern regions can be considered
of little relevance, because crops in
this region had already entered the
ripening phase in early July. More
positive conditions are observed in
the eastern part of the country and
in some areas of the Northwest,
which benefitted from wetter
weather conditions, but also in these
regions many areas present below-
average biomass accumulation.
The map displays the differences between the cumulative Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1 July to 10 August
2021 and the short-term average (STA, 2016-2020) for the same period. After 10 August the harvesting period starts and no
additional information could be gained from RS imagery with respect to canopy conditions. Positive anomalies (in green) reflect above-
average canopy density or early crop development, while negative anomalies (in red) reflect below-average biomass accumulation
or late crop development.
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MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 27 September 2021
Crop growth conditions
Winter cereals
Low yield expectations
Rain deficit and unfavourable temperatures prevailed affected growth and the rain arrived too late in July to
during the growing season of winter cereals determining improve crop conditions. Considering that the winterwheat
lower-than-average biomass accumulation and ultimately area is mainly concentrated in Zapadno-kazachstanskaya
also low yields. Warm temperatures during maturing and also taking into account the variability of wheat
stages exacerbated the final prospects. conditions in these areas, at the macro-region level, the
yield forecasts are decreased below the average but not
- In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-
as strong as in comparison to spring cereals.
kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts), high
- In South Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya,
temperatures at the beginning of July accelerated the end
Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), prolonged lower-
of the grain filling. However, in the main producing regions
than-average soil moisture and sub optimal temperatures
the magnitude of the rain deficit was moderate, the
characterised the growing season of winter wheat (which
impact of the high temperatures at the beginning of July
is mainly confined to South Kazakhstan) which, according
was limited and yield prospects are maintained slightly
to our models, reached grain filling stage with below-
below average.
average leaf area expansion and biomass accumulation.
- In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya
Phenological crop development was slightly advanced in
and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), soil moisture contents were
June and the beginning of July, when the crop entered the
generally adequate until June in Zapadno-
ripening phase. Warm temperatures at the beginning of
kazachstanskaya. Since June our models indicate reduced
July during maturing stages negatively affected yield
biomass accumulation in these areas due to limited soil
formation. Yield forecasts for winter cereals are below the
moisture supply and the increased temperatures, with a
average and decreased from the last bulletin estimates.
moderate impact on yields. Conversely, in Aktyubinskaya
Harvest was mainly completed during the first dekad of
the rain deficit in June combined with high temperatures
August.
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MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 27 September 2021
Spring cereals and grain maize
Decreased yield outlook for spring cereals
In the country’s main spring cereal producing region in the However, decreased soil moisture levels and high daily
North, crops established well in June despite reduced soil maximum temperatures in July around flowering reduced
moisture, but the continued lack of rainfall reduced yield potential yields. According to our model simulations,
expectations below the average. Additionally, high growth indicators are slightly below the average. Yield
temperatures in July affected yield formation. The forecasts are maintained slightly below the trends. The
harvesting campaign for spring cereals, started in August, harvest campaign started for spring cereals in mid-
continued in September with substantial decreased yield August.
expectations for the main producing regions. - In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya
and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), crop development was
- In the most important spring cereal producing macro-
generally advanced in all the regions. Rainfall sustained
region, North Kazakhstan (Kustanayskaya, Severo-
growth in some areas, but was particularly scarce in
kazachstanskaya and Akmolinskaya oblasts), continued
Aktyubinskaya, where spring cereals are mainly cultivated.
dry conditions, which combined in many areas with warm
The high temperatures of July and August affected all the
temperatures, affected growth and yield potential of
regions, with an impact on yield formation stages and final
spring cereals. Crops established well in June but our
yield. The yield forecasts are revised downwards and
model simulations and analysis of satellite images show
expectations are below average.
that leaf area expansion and biomass accumulation were
- In South Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya,
below average levels since the end of June. Reduced water
Turkestan, Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), spring wheat and
supply persisted during the critical developmental stage
barley emerged under good conditions, but high
of flowering; warm temperatures accelerated senescence
temperatures combined with below-average precipitation
and reduced the duration of the grain filling stage,
limited growth from the early stage of development. Our
particularly in Kustanayskaya. Yield forecasts are well
models show sub-optimal leaf area development around
below average for spring cereals. Our quantitative
flowering and short grain filling duration for spring
analysis refers to soft wheat but we can estimate that
cereals. Yield forecasts are below the trend.
yield losses also affect durum wheat that is grown in the
northern areas on less than half a million hectares. The
Grain maize in Kazakhstan is generally irrigated. Biomass
harvest campaign started during the last dekad of August
accumulation is therefore close to the potential level and
and continued in September with low yield reports.
the inter-annual variation of yield indicators is relatively
- In East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-
small. Grain maize crops are currently advanced and the
kazachstanskaya, Karagandinskaya oblasts), adequate
current yield expectation is fair.
rainfall distribution sustained close-to-average soil
moisture contents during most of the growing season.
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MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 27 September 2021
Crop yield forecast
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - September 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Crop MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Winter wheat 1.96 1.98 1.53 – 22 – 23
Spring wheat 1.14 1.15 0.91 – 21 – 21
Winter barley 2.24 1.87 1.66 – 26 – 11
Spring barley 1.47 1.34 1.22 – 18 – 9.3
Grain maize 5.92 6.18 6.27 + 5.8 + 1.4
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - winter wheat - September 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Country MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Kazakhstan 1.96 1.98 1.53 – 22 – 23
East Kazakhstan 2.11 1.57 2.07 – 1.7 + 32
North Kazakhstan — — — — —
Northwest Kazakhstan 2.05 2.28 1.83 – 11 – 20
South Kazakhstan 1.94 1.96 1.44 – 26 – 26
Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - spring wheat - September 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Country MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Kazakhstan 1.14 1.15 0.91 – 21 – 21
East Kazakhstan 1.07 1.01 1.05 – 2.1 + 4.6
North Kazakhstan 1.15 1.17 0.89 – 23 – 24
Northwest Kazakhstan 1.04 1.02 0.68 – 34 – 33
South Kazakhstan 1.87 1.86 1.63 – 13 – 12
Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - winter barley - September 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Country MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Kazakhstan 2.24 1.87 1.66 – 26 – 11
East Kazakhstan — — — — —
North Kazakhstan — — — — —
Northwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
South Kazakhstan 2.24 1.87 1.66 – 26 – 11
Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - spring barley - September 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Country MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Kazakhstan 1.47 1.34 1.22 – 18 – 9.3
East Kazakhstan 1.21 1.09 1.21 + 0.0 + 11
North Kazakhstan 1.42 1.26 1.11 – 22 – 12
Northwest Kazakhstan 1.02 1.01 0.73 – 29 – 28
South Kazakhstan 2.04 1.95 1.77 – 13 – 9.4
Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - grain maize - September 2021 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)
Country MARS 2021
Avg 5yrs 2020 %21/5yrs %21/20
forecasts
Kazakhstan 5.92 6.18 6.27 + 5.8 + 1.4
East Kazakhstan — — — — —
North Kazakhstan — — — — —
Northwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
South Kazakhstan 5.92 6.18 6.27 + 5.8 + 1.4
Southwest Kazakhstan — — — — —
NB: Yields are f orecast f or crops with more than 10 000 ha per country.
Sources: 1990-2020 data f or area and yields come f rom Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of
Kazakhstan - Statistics committee and Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
2021 yields come f rom MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 15.09.2020).
The column header '%21/5yrs’ stands f or the 2021 change with respect to the 5-year average (%).
Similarly, '%21/20’ stands f or the 2021 change with respect to 2020 (%).
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MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – 27 September 2021
The JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring European Legal notice
Neighbourhood is a JRC–European Commission Neither the European Commission nor any person
publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 – acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible
Directorate for Sustainable Resources) for the use, which might be made of this
JRC MARS Bulletins are available at publication.
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins
Analysis and reports
S. Bassu, L. Nisini, G. Ronchetti Disclaimer
The geographic borders are purely a graphical
Reporting support representation and are only intended to be
SeproTec, I. Biavetti indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily
Edition reflect the official European Commission position.
S. Bassu, B. Baruth
Data production
MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup Technical note
(NL), VITO (BE) The long-term average (LTA) used within this
Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of
Contact data covering 1991-2020.
JRC D5/MARS4CAST
JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu
Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of
the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission
is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout
the whole policy cycle.
PDF: KJ-BQ-21-008-EN-N ISSN 2600-2817 doi: 10.2760/9781
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