ISRR INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON REGIONAL REANALYSIS
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INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ISRR 2018 ON REGIONAL REANALYSIS 17 -19 July 2018, Bonn, Germany Bonn Germany Scientific program Organized by Sponsored by IMPLEMENTED BY Climate Change Service
Contents Table of Contents Oral Present Contents Introduction 3 Oral Presentations - Tuesday - 17 July 2018 4 Oral Presentations - Wednesday - 18 July 2018 14 Oral Presentations - Thursday - 19 July 2018 28 Poster Presentations 34 2
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany Introduction R egional reanalysis is a relatively new field of research. Starting with the North Amer- ican Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) just over ten years ago, the community is now taking a much broader shape with multiple regional reanalysis projects having been implemented and data sets produced in recent years. While this new developments were primarily concentrated in Europe, we now see more and more projects from other parts of the world. Further, reanalysis users are increasingly recognizing the benefits of regional reanalysis with its increased resolution in multiple contexts such as an enhanced representation of weather and climate extremes or as much more suitable input for subsequent mod- elling, e.g., hydrology, compared to global reanalyses. Recently, the ongoing transition towards renewable energies lead to a considerable further increase in users of regional reanalyses. Therefore, it is our great pleasure to welcome the growing community of developers, producers and users of regional reanalysis to the first International Symposium on Re- gional Reanalysis (ISRR). We are happy that we are all able to come together in Bonn for this three-day international symposium and it is our hope that this conference is a trigger for a continuing series of conferences or events every couple of years. It is our aim to enhance the understanding of the potential of regional reanalysis and to foster the disussion between data providers and users in order to further improve regional reanalysis especially with respect to its applications. The Scientific Committee consisting of Eric Bazile (MeteoFrance), Andrea Kaiser-Weiss (DWD), Frank Kaspar (DWD) and Per Unden (SMHI) chaired by Jan Keller (HErZ) has structured the symposium around three main topics, namely: • Regional reanalysis projects on varios scales • Evaluation of regional reanalysis • Applications of regional reanalysis The ISRR is organised by the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ funded by the German Meteorological Service DWD) and the University of Bonn. We look forward to meeting you! The ISRR Organisation and Scientific Committees We would like to thank all our partners and supporters of the International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis in Bonn: IMPLEMENTED BY Climate Change Service 3
Oral Presentations Tuesday - 17 July 2018
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany TU.0I Development and applications of region- al reanalyses for Europe and Germany Oral Presentations based on DWD’s NWP models: Status and outlook Tuesday Authors: Frank Kaspar1, Michael Borsche1, Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss1, Jan D. Keller1,2, Maarit Lockhoff 3, Deborah Niermann1, Roland Potthast1, Thomas Roesch1,2, Sabrina Wahl2,3 1 Affiliations: Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 2Hans-Er- tel-Centre for Weather Research, Germany, 3Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany I Oral Presentations n recent years, Germany’s national meteorological service (DWD) has start- ed several activities aiming at the development and evaluation of regional Wednesday reanalyses as a tool for climate monitoring. The first step was the devel- opment of a COSMO-based reanalysis within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research. The COSMO model (Consortium for Small-scale Mod- eling) is a non-hydrostatic limited-area atmospheric model, that is used for operational weather forecasting as well as for research applications at the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) and other members of the consortium (see http://www.cosmo-model.org/ ). The model was the center of the German regional reanalysis activities and was also used to generate a set of regional reanalyses within two major activities: (1) The HErZ branch on climate monitoring and diagnostics is a DWD-funded research Oral Presentations group located at the Universities of Bonn and Cologne. Its aim is to analyze the potential of regional reanalysis systems as a tool for climate monitoring Thursday in comparison to global reanalyses and other data sets. A 6 km deterministic reanalysis for the European CORDEX-domain and a 2 km reanalysis for Central Europe has been produced within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weath- er Research (HErZ). Current developments include an ultra high-resolution local reanalysis system comprising a coupled terrestrial system approach. (2) Within the EU-funded project UERRA an approach for a COSMO ensemble reanalysis was developed. An ensemble dataset with 12 km resolution was produced and is currently compared to regional reanalyses of other Eu- ropean partners. The application potential of these reanalyses datasets is Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations currently evaluated within several additional projects. All these current re- analyses are based on nudging as data assimilation scheme. In the meantime, progress has been made in the NWP models and data assimilation techniques. The current operational data assimilation system at DWD consists of a global component, using the ICON model and a combination of LETKF+EnVar for the ensemble and deterministic part of the analysis, and a regional compo- nent, combining a LETKF and the kilometer scale COSMO model (KENDA). Currently scenarios are under investigation how these components can be 5
International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis used for the production of future reanalyses. The presentation will give an overview over the existing regional reanalyses, results from quality assess- Oral Presentations ments, application examples and an outlook on future plans. Tuesday TU.02 China Regional Reanalysis : One-year Pre- liminary Experiments and Evaluation of First Stage (1998 ~ 2007) Datasets Authors: Qi Zhang1, Jianping Tang1,Yinong Pan1 1 Affiliation: School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University B y taking the advantage of limited area meteorological numerical model, Oral Presentations data assimilation or nudging method, regional reanalysis aims at generating a series of homogeneous estimation of regional atmospheric variables with Wednesday a higher temporal and spatial resolution than global reanalysis. As is the fact that regional reanalysis dataset has already been generated in many areas e.g. North America [Mesinger et al., 2006], Arctic [Bromwich et al., 2016], Europe [Bollmeyer, Keller, et al., 2015; Dahlgren et al., 2016], The demand of generating a high spatial and temporal resolution regional reanalysis dataset is prevailing. China Regional Reanalysis project (CNRR) is a program conducted by the School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University which aims to generate a series of relatively long time sequence (1998 ~ now), high spatial (18km horizontal resolution) and temporal (1-hourly) resolution regional reanalysis Oral Presentations datasets for China mainland. Based on results we gathered from preliminary experiments [Zhang et al., Thursday 2017], three types of datasets are now under production: CNRR-ASOBS, dataset assimilating conventional and satellite radiance data via 3Dvar method; CNRR-SN, dataset using spectral nudging method; CNRR-ASERA, dataset us- ing a new method to correct every 6-hourly warm start initial field. As the first stage of all three datasets (1998 ~ 2007) have ready been gen- erated, we are now conduction a general evaluation for near surface and up- per air atmospheric variables. It would be a great honor if we are permitted to share our latest progress about CNRR via a poster and get constructive Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations advices or suggestions through ISRR. TU.03 Evaluation of Australian regional atmo- spheric reanalysis Authors: Chun-Hsu Su1, Nathan Eizenberg1, Peter Steinle1, Doerte Jakob1, Paul Fox-Hughes2 1 Affiliations: Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 2Bureau of Mete- 6
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany orology, Hobart, Australia T Oral Presentations he Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Re- analysis for Australia (BARRA, http://www.bom.gov.au/research/projects/ Tuesday reanalysis) is the first atmospheric reanalysis produced by the Bureau for the Australian region. When completed in 2019, BARRA will provide over 25 years of hourly reconstructions of past atmospheric conditions from 1990 onwards. BARRA’s 12 km regional reanalysis (BARRA-R) over the Australia and New Zealand regions is bounded by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. BARRA also includes multiple convection permitting (1.5 km) dynamical downscal- ing analyses (BARRA-xx, where xx labels downscaled domain) over smaller sub-domains, nested within BARRA-R, to provide additional fine-scale detail. BARRA is based on fixed deterministic atmospheric (4DVAR) and land sur- Oral Presentations face (EKF) assimilation systems used at the UK Met Office (UERRA, Uncer- tainties in Ensembles of Regional Reanalyses), and model nesting and Unified Wednesday Model configurations based on the Bureau’s operational numerical prediction system (ACCESS, Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simula- tor). In contrast to the global reanalyses, high-resolution information on the land surface (tree heights, topography, etc) was used along with additional ob- servations from automatic weather stations in Australia and New Zealand, and locally derived satellite wind vectors over Australia and New Zealand. BARRA is initialized with the soil temperature and moisture fields derived from a lower resolution (60 km) offline run of the Joint UK Land Environ- ment Simulator (JULES) forced by ERA-Interim atmospheric variables. The finer horizontal resolutions and the use of additional surface observa- Oral Presentations tions are shown to add realistic fine-scale detail, at successive stages from ERA-Interim to BARRA-R and to BARRA-xx. This is most likely associated Thursday with a more realistic representation of surface forcing (orography, tree heights, coastal regions, etc), a better simulation of the atmospheric circulation and gradients, and more explicit representations of fine scale processes (e.g., sea breezes, convective systems). We demonstrate the distinct advantage in using BARRA-xx over ERA-Interim for near surface wind, temperature and pre- cipitation. In this presentation, we report our skill assessments of BARRA-R and BARRA-xx data, focussing on forcing variables (e.g. screen temperature and humidity, 10 m wind, and precipitation) that influence extreme weather events, and highlight the added value BARRA can provide over coarser global Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations reanalyses and traditional gridded climate datasets. TU.04 An EOF-VARX model for statistical down- scaling Authors: Ci-Ren Jiang1, Lu-Hung Chen2 1 Affiliations: Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, 2National Chung-Hsing Univer- 7
International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis sity, Taichung, Taiwan W Oral Presentations e suggest a strategy for downscaling daily mean temperature that incorporates their temporal relationships. The strategy is based on Tuesday empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX). The missing values in observational data are re- constructed by data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (DINEOF, Beckers and Rixen 2003), and the temporal information for daily mean temperatures are utilized by VARX models. We test the strategy in some empirical studies for Germany and Taiwan. Results show that our EOF-VARX model provides more accurate downscaled results in terms of root-mean- square error and correlation scores. Oral Presentations TU.05 A 140-year high-resolution meteorologi- Wednesday cal reanalysis over France through offline data assimilation in an ensemble of down- scaled reconstructions from 20CR Authors: Alexandre Devers1, Jean-Philippe Vidal1, Claire Lauvernet1, Ben- jamin Graff2 1 Affiliations: Irstea, UR RiverLy,Villeurbanne, France, 2Compagnie Nationale du Rhone (CNR), Lyon, France T he knowledge of historical French weather has recently been improved Oral Presentations through the development of the SCOPE (Spatially COherent Proba- bilistic Extended) Climate reconstruction, a high-resolution daily ensemble Thursday reconstruction of precipitation and temperature covering the period 1871- 2012, which is based on a statistical downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (Caillouet et al., 2016, 2017). Historical surface observations of precipitation and temperature do exist in France, though rather scarce and sparse in the beginning of the period considered, but this information does not currently feed SCOPE Climate reconstructions. The goal of this study is therefore to assimilate these historical observations into SCOPE Climate reconstructions in order to build a 140-year meteorological reanalysis over France. Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations This study considers an offline data assimilation set-up (ie, without running any model) that have successfully been used in recent paleoclimate stud- ies, i.e. at much larger temporal and spatial scales (see e.g. Bhend et al., 2012). The data assimilation method applied here is based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter. An anisotropic localization procedure based on the SCOPE Climate background climatology is applied on both temperature and precipitation. A Gaussian anamorphosis is moreover applied on daily precipitation. The data assimilation method is here implemented to build FYRE Climate 8
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany (French hYdrometeorological Reanalysis), a daily 8-km gridded meteorologi- cal reanalysis over France for the 1871-2012 period. Results show that: (1) Oral Presentations the reanalysis has a much lower uncertainty than the initial SCOPE Climate reconstructions, (2) the uncertainty of the reanalysis is strongly dependent Tuesday on the observation density. FYRE Climate allows assessing for the first time high-resolution observation-compatible multidecadal variations in both tem- perature and precipitation over France. Features and performances of FYRE Climate in terms of temperature and pre- cipitation regimes, variability, and extremes are also compared over recent overlapping periods with those of the Safran French reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010) and the Mescan European reanalysis (Soci et al., 2016). Oral Presentations TU.06 Toward a 35-years North American Pre- cipitation and Surface Reanalysis: Evalua- Wednesday tion of a 5 years sample Authors: Nicolas Gasset1,Vincent Fortin2, Marco Carrera2, Etienne Ga- borit1, Milena Dimitrijevic2, Guy Roy1, Normand Gagnon1 1 Affiliations: Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada, 2Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada I n support of the International Watersheds Initiative (IWI) of the International Oral Presentations Joint Commission (IJC), a 35-years precipitation and surface reanalysis cover- ing North America seamlessly at a 3-hours and 15-km resolution is currently Thursday being developed at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC). A deterministic reforecast / dynamical downscaling approach is followed where a global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) is used as initial condition of a Nu- merical Weather Prediction (NWP) system (the Global Environmental Multi- scale model (GEM)) along with a coupling with precipitation and surface data assimilation (i.e. the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) and the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS)). While optimized to be more com- putationally efficient in the context of a reforecast experiment, all systems used are closely related to model versions and configurations currently run Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations operationally at CMC, meaning they have undergone a strict and thorough validation procedure. As a proof of concept and for evaluation purpose before achieving the 35-years reanalysis, the approach is evaluated for the years 2010-2014 against surface observations as well as currently available gridded reference products such as NOAA’s Multisensor Precipitation Estimate (Stage IV) data- set, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data- set, SMOS sattelite Surface moisture measurements, ERA-Interim and the 9
International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis newly released ERA5 reanalysis. A special attention is dedicated to the evaluation of analysed variables, i.e. precipitation, surface/ground temperature Oral Presentations and moisture over the whole domain of interest. Finally, a preliminary evalu- ation at the watershed level through hydrometeorological application is also Tuesday illustrated. Results from this preliminary 5 years sample are very encouraging: the cou- pled approach, i.e. GEM+CaPA/CaLDAS, always shows clear improvements over classical reforecast / dynamical downscaling where surface observations are present. Furthermore, results are inline or better than currently available gridded reference products as well as the CMC operational approach that was operated from 2012 to 2016. Such a reanalysis is of prime interest for the whole North American hydro- meteorology and land surface community, notably for transboundaries studies. Oral Presentations Among other things, it will allow for bias correction of current estimates and Wednesday forecasts, and help decision maker understand and communicate by how much the current forecasted state of the system differs from the recent past. TU.07 The 55 years UERRA Surface Re-Analysis over Europe at 5.5km. Authors: Eric Bazile1, Antoine Verrelle1, Patrick Le Moigne1, Francois Besson1, Rachid Abida1, Camille Szczypta2, Cornel Soci3 1 Affiliations: Meteo-France, Toulouse, France, 2Mercator Océan, Toulouse, France, 3ECMWF, Reading, UK Oral Presentations W ithin the European UERRA project ended end of 2017, a surface Thursday re-analysis was produced at high horizontal resolution (5.5km) over Europe for the period 1961-2015. Furthermore, uncertainties were estimated with an ensemble of 8 members at the same resolution. This database is avail- able at ECMWF on the MARS archive. This surface re-analysis done with the MESCAN-SURFEX system should provide added value compared to global product such as ERA-Interim-Land thanks to a finer horizontal grid (5.5km versus 80km), additional observations and the use of a precipitation analysis (Soci et al. 2016). This precipitation analysis done one a day improve significantly the precipitation field which is Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations one of the most essential variable for several applications: hydrological model for water management or snow pack evolution over mountains. After a brief description of the MESCAN-SURFEX system and the output data available, we will present the results and comparison for the 55 years period with independent observations and global re-analysis. A focus will be done on the evaluation of precipitation and the snow depth in particular over the mountainous area. The question of uncertainties and the impact of the obser- vation network will be addressed. 10
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany Additional information about the UERRA project can be found at http://www. uerra.eu Oral Presentations The research leading to these results has received funding from the Europe- an Union, Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE-2013-1) under grant Tuesday agreement no 607193. TU.08 Reanalysis for wind and solar electricity simulations: challenges and lessons learned in the Renewables.ninja project (Invited talk) Authors: Stefan Pfenninger1, Iain Staffell2 Oral Presentations 1 Affiliations: ETH Zürich, Switzerland, 2Imperial College London, UK Wednesday T he Renewables.ninja project uses meteorological reanalysis data to de- velop freely available worldwide simulations of solar and wind electricity generation. This talk will discuss the approaches used for simulation and bias correction and show some recent improvements made based on user feed- back, including directly providing energy-relevant weather variables and more pre-aggregated data on different spatial scales.We will then show a preliminary comparison using MERRA-2 (the primary source of data currently used), ERA- 5, and COSMO-REA6, discussing the advantages and disadvantages of regional reanalysis data for our applications. The talk will conclude by highlighting some recent applications of our data and give an outlook of future developments. Oral Presentations TU.09 Impact of different weather data sets on Thursday the results of a power system model Authors: Gerda Deac1, Katja Franke1 1 Affiliation: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI W ith rising shares of renewable energies in the power system, weather data become a crucial input in the energy system modelling. We use weather data in our energy system optimization model Enertile, which in- Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations cludes a potential analysis for wind and solar power for Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Different weather data sources with different spatial resolution affect the calculated potential of renewable energies and thus the result of the energy system optimization as e.g. power plant expansions. We analyze the impact of different weather datasets on modelling results focusing on differences in renewable potentials and hourly performance of renew- ables in a power system model. Based on the analysis, we provide an insight on the importance of weather data in energy system modelling. 11
International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis TU.10 Assessment of complementarity between wind power and photovoltaic installations Oral Presentations to supply residential electric demand in Germany and Czech Republic Tuesday Authors: Luis Ramirez Camargo1, Katharina Gruber1,2, Felix Nitsch1,2 1 Affiliations: Institute for Applied Informatics, Technische Hochschule Deg- gendorf, Freyung, Germany, 2Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Scienc- es,Vienna, Austria T he electricity self-sufficiency of individual single-family houses (SFH) in Oral Presentations Central Europe can be achieved with combinations of photovoltaic (PV) and battery systems. System sizing strongly depends on particular weather Wednesday conditions but even in privileged locations technical requirements are high; the total system costs would be far beyond average household’s economic possibilities and without a grid connection more than 60% of the total PV generation would have to be curtailed. In order to reduce curtailment and investment costs of PV and battery systems, the present work evaluates the potential of combinations of these with wind power for supply of electricity for groups of SFHs. This study relies on 20 years of hourly solar radiation, wind speed and temperature data from the COSMO-REA6 regional reanalysis, satellite imagery derived snow cover data, land use and population data as well as a techno-economical optimization model to size renewable hybrid Oral Presentations energy generation systems. Maps showing the required number of small wind turbines (10.5 kW), PV and battery systems sizes for clusters of self-suffi- Thursday cient SFHs across Germany and Czech Republic are generated for multiple technical and weather dependent scenarios. Results are discussed considering studies of complementarity between wind and solar power as well as previous work on self-sufficient SFHs in Central Europe. Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations 12
Oral Presentations Oral Presentations Oral Presentations Poster Presentations Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Tuesday / Wednesday 13 ISRR Germany Bonn 2018
Oral Presentations Wednesday - 18 July 2018
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany WE.01 Estimating the value of regional reanalyses from the UERRA inter-comparison Oral Presentations Authors: Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss1, Deborah Niermann1, Michael Tuesday Borsche1, Cristian Lussana2, Francesco Isotta3, Else van Besse- laar4, Gerard van der Schrier4, Frank Kaspar1, Per Unden5 1 Affiliations: Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Germany, 2Meteorologisk Institutt (MI), Norway, 3Eidgenoessisches Departement Des Innern (EDI), Meteoswiss, Switzerland, 4Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI), Netherlands, 5Sveriges Mete- orologiska Och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI), Sweden R egional reanalyses provide commonly requested meteorological parame- Oral Presentations ters like wind speed, radiation, temperature and precipitation. Here un- Wednesday certainty estimates are discussed resulting from the inter-comparison of three European regional reanalyses (based on numerical weather models COSMO, UM and HARMONIE-ALADIN), several downscaling products (based on MES- CAN) and the observation-based E-OBS dataset recently produced within the EU FP7 project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional ReAnalysis (UERRA). The performance of the regional reanalyses depends on the location, the sea- son and on the spatio-temporal scale of interest. Most pronounced is the value of reanalyses in locations of data sparse areas, where the numerical weather models are superior in transporting information compared to the traditional gridding procedures. For wind speed at heights relevant for wind energy, an added value over ERA-Interim could be demonstrated for all UERRA reanal- Oral Presentations yses products. Radiation fields show a model-dependent bias against satellite data. Station temperatures were generally found in agreement, however with Thursday a bias becoming severe for the (moderately) extreme values, with potential pitfalls for threshold applications such as climate indices. Comparisons of the precipitation fields in different areas of Europe demonstrate that the various reanalysis excel in different regions, coinciding with the respective areas the models are applied operationally. The multi-model ensemble was found to provide better uncertainty estimates than the ensemble of one model alone. WE.02 Vertical wind profile: Assessment of re- Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations gional reanalyses. Authors: Christopher W. Frank1,2, Sabrina Wahl1,3, Jan D. Keller1,4, Bern- hard Pospichal2, Andreas Hense3, Susanne Crewell2 1 Affiliations: Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics, Germany, 2Institute of Geophysics and Me- teorology, University of Cologne, Germany, 3Meteorological Institute, University Bonn, Germany, 4Deutscher Wetterdienst, 15
International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis Offenbach, Germany P Oral Presentations ublic safety, renewable energy, aeronautical meteorology: For a variety of applications the vertical wind profile needs to be known as accurately Tuesday as possible at any time and for any location. Knowing the true vertical wind profile would improve numerical weather prediction, would enhance renewable energy production estimates, and reduce aviation risks. Unfortu- nately, wind profile measurements provided by weather masts or wind pro- filer systems are spatially rare and limited to the lower atmosphere. Another source of vertical wind profiles are reanalyses. Reanalyses combine numeri- cal weather prediction models and observations to provide a best estimate of the atmospheric flow in the past. Reanalyses have the advantage to provide the wind speed on a homogeneous grid in space and time. Recently new high Oral Presentations resolution regional reanalyses have been developed to better address the local scale, however, their quality still needs to be quantified. Wednesday Here we investigate the capabilities of regional reanalyses developed within the Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research to reproduce realistic wind profiles. The high resolution reanalyses COSMO-REA6 (6 km horizontal res- olution, 40 vertical layer) and COSMO-REA2 (2 km horizontal resolution, 50 vertical layer) are both based on the NWP model COSMO. REA6 covers the EURO-CORDEX region and REA2 an extended COSMO-DE domain over central Europe. The coarser reanalysis is available from 1995 to 2015 and the finer from 2007 to 2013. The central part of this contribution is to quantify the uncertainty of wind profiles provided by regional reanalyses. Therefore, reanalyses profiles of the Oral Presentations horizontal wind speed are compared to weather mast measurements. A first assessment considers annual and daily cycle comparisons. Since wind profiles Thursday depend primarily on atmospheric stability ,the performance is quantified for selected stability conditions. For a realistic assessment of the results, the local conditions around the weather masts are taken into account. WE.03 What do we gain from the regional reanal- ysis products - a perspektive from multi- variate analysis of PBL Profiles Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations Authors: Ronny Petrik1, Burkhardt Rockel1, Beate Geyer1 1 Affiliation: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht E nergy system models need to have reliable and robust weather input data to simulate over many years the production of energy and the flow with- in the power grid. For weather data we rely on reanalysis/hindcast products which deliver various data of interest in 3D-space and time. With respect to renewables the main challenge is that all information need- 16
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany ed is a) related to variables resulting from strong nonlinear interactions in the atmosphere (as for radiation) or is b) related to levels located above Oral Presentations the surface (as for wind). In both cases an assimilation within a reanalysis framework is hard to realize. Therefore, not only reanalysis products but also Tuesday hindcasts based on large-scale constraints and pure hindcasts are analyzed for their quality with a focus on the planetary boundary layer. Different measurement towers and remote sensing devices spread over Europe are taken as reference data for model evaluation. The profiles of temperature, humidity and wind speed are investigated and the differ- ent reanalysis products are intercompared. The intercomparison reveals the strength and weaknesses of each member. In addition, it is highlighted where the reanalysis systematically reduces model deficits compared to a hindcast, but also which model errors survive in the reanalysis. The verification aims to Oral Presentations distinguish between different atmospheric regimes and furthermore assesses Wednesday the temporal consistency of lower tropospheric variability by means of cor- relation and ramp statistics. Finally, the turbulence intensity is analyzed because it originates from a com- plex interaction between the different variables mentioned before. Although the turbulence statistics is not explicitly resolved by the recent reanalysis products, the effect of turbulent fluxes on the mean atmospheric fields can be parameterized. It is shown to which extent the models are able to rep- resent the mean characteristic of deviations from mean wind field. WE.04 Intercomparison of the representation of Oral Presentations climate in global and regional reanalysis Thursday Authors: Jan D. Keller1,2, Sabrina Wahl1,3 1 Affiliations: Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics, Germany, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 3University of Bonn, Germany T he importance of reanalyses as a basis for numerous applications in geo- sciences, economics and other fields has significantly grown over the last decade. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation and intercomparison of reanal- ysis data sets is essential. Here, we quantify the added value of regional atmo- Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations spheric reanalyses (such as COSMO-REA6 or the HARMONIE reanalysis) compared to the global (forcing) reanalysis products (e.g., ERA-Interim, MERRA-2) with respect to monitoring climate and its variability. To this end, we investigate the representation of climate indices in the reanalyses in comparison to indices derived from observations. The set of climate indices in consideration comprises simple measures such as number of summer days or frost days but also aggregated indices, e.g., heating / cooling degree days. In order to assess the quality of the climate representation and thereby the 17
International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis added value of regional data sets, we also quantitatively verify the indices derived from reanalyses with independent observations. Oral Presentations WE.06 European high resolution Regional Re- Tuesday analyses in UERRA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Authors: Per Unden1, Semjon Schimanke1, Patrick Le Moigne2, Eric Bazile2, Martin Ridal1, Esbjorn Olsson1, Lars Berggren1, Roger Randriamampianina3 1 Affiliations: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrkoping, Sweden, 2Meteo-France, Toulouse, France, 3Met Oral Presentations Norway, Oslo, Norway Wednesday W ithin the EU FP7 SPACE programme regional European Reanalyses sys- tems were developed and produced for multi-decadal periods by 4 partners (SMHI, Met Office, Meteo-France and University of Bonn/DWD). SMHI coordinated the project and produced an 11 km grid resolution Eu- ropean Reanalysis from 1961. It has continued to near real time within the Copernicus programme (C3S) where SMHI is contracted to develop and produce a regional Reanalysis for Europe within the Copernicus climate change services (PRECISE). Meteo-France and Met Norway are also working in the Project. The UERRA system run by SMHI is with the ALADIN model in the HARMO- Oral Presentations NIE environment developed within the HIRLAM modelling consortium. The horizontal grid is at 11 km and there are 65 model levels up to 10 hPa. Con- Thursday ventional observations from ECMWF MARS are used with complemented with extra surface observations from some countries. The global ERA-Inter- im (and ERA-40) reanalyses provide lateral boundaries and large scale forc- ing through an extra constraint in the 3D-VAR analysis. The reanalysis data are freely available through the MARS data services at ECMWF (in GRIB-2). The 11 km resolution provides much more detail and realistic local features than is possible in the about 78 km global reanalysis. The UERRA partners have carried out an extensive evaluation of the quality and uncertainties of the SMHI reanalysis as well as of the Met Office and University of Bonn ones Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations and the Meteo-France surface parameter reanalysis. There both benefits and uncertainties which vary over region and with horizontal scales. The PRECISE system for the C3S European Reanalysis is being developed and contains several enhancements. The resolution is roughly doubled, the cycling in time will be 3 hours instead of 6 and most importantly, there will be and ensemble assimilation coupled with the deterministic high resolution run. 18
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany WE.07 The Arctic Regional Reanalysis of the Co- pernicus Climate Change Service Oral Presentations Authors: Harald Schyberg1, Heiner Kornich2, Kristian Pagh Nielsen3, Tuesday Roger Randriamampianina1, Xiaohua Yang3 1 Affiliations: Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 2Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 3Danish Meteorological Institute W e will present status and plans for the Arctic regional reanalysis of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), C3S project 322 Lot 2. The project aims to produce an Arctic regional reanalysis over two subdomains of interest for change processes and economic activities. The reanalysis will cover the period 1997 - 2021 with a horizontal resolution of 2,5 km. Additionally a Oral Presentations proof-of-concept for a pan-Arctic reanalysis will be provided for a period of Wednesday 1-year. The system to be used is based on the HARMONIE-AROME Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system, with additions and configuration choices for reanal- ysis purposes with that system. Global reanalysis data from ERA5 will be used for lateral boundaries. Development activities connected to the system includes work on assimila- tion setup, 3D-Var background error statistics and uncertainty estimation. The Arctic reanalysis will add value versus the global reanalysis by providing higher-resolution and by using regional data not used there. The upper air assimilation will use conventional observations and, since there are gaps in the conventional observing system, will put emphasis of using satellite data- Oral Presentations sets which have good coverage in the Arctic. This will include important parts of the satellite observing system such as microwave and infrared radiances, Thursday atmospheric motion vectors, scatterometer winds and radio occultation data. Handling of “cold surfaces” in the surface scheme, such as snow, sea ice and glaciers, which are important in the Arctic, will also receive special attention with the aim to give a better representation than in the global reanalysis. A main milestone will be the start of the reanalysis production, which is planned to take place in April 2019, and the reanalysis dataset will then be continuously updated to provide a complete 24 years time series before the end of the project. Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations WE.08 SMHIs applications of UERRAs and Coper- nicus regional reanalysis for Europe Authors: Semjon Schimanke1, Ludvig Isaksson1, Lisette Edvinson1, Per Unden1, Martin Ridal1 1 Affiliations: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrkoping 19
International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis W e are going to present how the regional reanalysis (RRA) from UERRA and its follow-up service by Copernicus is used at SMHI. Oral Presentations Based on the pre-operational FP7 project UERRA RRA data is available for Europe for the period 1961-2015. The same model system is now used in Tuesday the operational C3S service Copernicus regional reanalysis for Europe, where the data set is updated monthly. Herewith, users are offered a continuous and homogeneous data set for the period 1961 to close to real time. In our presen- tation we will show how the RRA is used at SMHI in the moment and which future plans we have for the usage of the RRA. Examples of usage are: 1. Correction of historical observations: Based on comparisons between the RRA and SMHIs observational data base (MORA) our climatologist man- age to find errors in MORA, which they did not discover earlier. Here- with, the RRA helps to improve the quality of SMHIs data base, which will Oral Presentations even have a positive impact on future reanalysis products Wednesday 2. Season map: SMHI produces daily an overview showing the prevailing season of the year following SMHIs definition. Here, the RRA data is used to show climatological arrival dates of the seasons as well as for constructing a historical data base with arrival dates over the years 1961-2017 3. Forcing data for regional ocean models: The RRA parameters 2m-tem- perature, humidity, wind, SLP, precipitation and radiation are used to drive hindcast simulations with the regional ocean model NEMO-Nordic. Even other examples might be discussed in the presentation. Moreover, we will critically review the quality of the RRA data set. At SMHI, Oral Presentations we had even more ideas and plans on how to use the RRA. However, during the preparation of different applications, we discovered certain shortcomings Thursday in the RRA, which prevented us from setting up corresponding services. Exam- ples will be given in the presentation. WE.09 Land Surface Hydrology in the European High-resolution Regional Reanalysis UER- RA Authors: Patrick Le Moigne1, Antoine Verrelle1, Camille Szczypta2, Eric Bazile1 Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations 1 Affiliations: Meteo-France, Toulouse, France, 2Mercator Ocean, Toulouse, France T he UERRA project (2014-2017), financed by the European Union under its 7th Framework Programme SPACE, aimed at building a high resolution (5.5km) reanalysis of surface essential climate variables (ECV) over Europe, covering the period 1961-2015, and at estimating associated uncertainties. The atmospheric UERRA reanalysis relies on the HARMONIE system and 20
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany the ALADIN model at 11km horizontal resolution. A downscaling at 5.5km is performed to derive wind and the downwards radiative fluxes, and to provide Oral Presentations background fields for the MESCAN surface analysis of 2m temperature and relative humidity and 24h accumulated precipitation. These mesoscale fields Tuesday are then used to drive hydro-meteorological off-line simulations based on the coupled SURFEX-CTRIP system, where SURFEX is the land surface model developed and used at Meteo-France for NWP and climate applications, and CTRIP is the river routing model used for climate applications at Me- teo-France. Such a system provides not only ECVs, such as soil moisture, snow depth, etc., but also computes the various components of the water cycle: precipitation, surface runoff, soil infiltration and water storage, as well as the time evolution of rivers discharge and aquifers height. A description of the MESCAN-SURFEX-CTRIP system will be done first. A Oral Presentations detailed analysis of the water cycle components climatology over the 1961- Wednesday 2015 period over Europe will be done and comparisons with independent observations of river discharges will be discussed. Additional information about the UERRA project can be found at http://www. uerra.eu The research leading to these results has received funding from the Europe- an Union, Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE-2013-1) under grant agreement no 607193. WE.10 Continental-scale high resolution terres- trial hydrologic modeling over Europe us- Oral Presentations ing the COSMO regional reanalysis Thursday Authors: Bibi S. Naz1,2, Stefan Kollet1,2, Carsten Montzka1, Anne Springer3, Klaus Goergen1,2, Carina Furusho1,2 Affiliations: 1 Institute of Bio- and Geosciences (Agrosphere, IBG-3), Re- search Centre Juelich, Germany, 2Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Juelich, Germany, 3Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, Bonn University, Germany M eteorological forcing is critical for hydrological modeling as it has a strong Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations impact on the accuracy of simulated hydrological states and fluxes. How- ever, meteorological observations over large spatial scales at high resolution are often lacking.The use of high-resolution regional reanalysis data which pro- vide regionally consistent dataset of meteorological variables may be a valuable approach to drive terrestrial hydrologic models for studying water resources planning, impact assessments, and flood forecasting. This study investigates the use of high resolution reanalysis datasets for hydrological modeling and its ef- fects on hydrological extremes. The community land model (CLM 3.5) was set 21
International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis up over Europe at 3km resolution and forced with the COSMO-REA6 from Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ) for a time period of 2000 Oral Presentations to 2014. The performance of the model was analyzed through comparisons with independent observations including satellite soil moisture, gridded ob- Tuesday servational-based runoff, GRDC river discharge and total water storage from GRACE satellite. Overall, our results indicate that in regions with high spa- tial variability of precipitation, high-resolution reanalysis performs better than coarse-resolution reanalysis dataset and suggest that reanalysis products are useful for hydrological modeling over large scales. WE.11 Reproduction of storms over the North Sea and the Baltic with the regional Oral Presentations reanalysis COSMO-REA6 Wednesday Authors: Natacha Fery1, Birger Tinz1, Lydia Gates1 1 Affiliation: Deutscher Wetterdienst, Marine Climate Monitoring, Hamburg, Germany I n this study, we assess how severe storms in the North Sea and the Baltic between 1994 and 2015 are reproduced in the high resolution reanalysis COSMO-REA6 (Deutscher Wetterdienst, University of Bonn). The analysis was carried out for the storms Anatol (12/1999), Britta (11/2006), Kyrill (01/2007), Tilo (11/2007), Christian (10/2013) and Xaver (12/2013), storms strongly varying in intensity and duration. The results of the regional reanal- Oral Presentations ysis were compared to the quality controlled and mast corrected measure- ments of the research platforms FINO1, 2 and 3 in the North and the Baltic Thursday Sea. The comparison for stormy conditions included wind speed, wind direc- tion and pressure at the surface and at several heights along the masts of the platforms (from 20 m to 100 m depending on the location). To provide infor- mation about the added value of using regional reanalysis as compared to the global reanalysis in reproducing severe storms over sea, additional compari- sons of the 10 m wind and the sea level pressure between COSMO-REA6 and the global atmospheric reanalyses ERA-40, ERAInterim and 20CRv2c are provided. Preliminary results suggest that regional reanalyses are better suited to reproduce short, fast moving and strong storms. Both the regional Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations and the global reanalyses are able to reproduce the atmospheric conditions of storms characterized by a large duration and mostly associated to storm surges. This work is part of the project EXTREMENESS, funded by the Ger- man Federal Ministry of Education and Research that aims at investigating extreme storm surges and their consequences along the German North Sea coast. It finds application in the field of engineering design of coastal protec- tion infrastructure that relies on accurate reproduction of storms, especially the storm surges that may lead to significant damages along the coasts. 22
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany WE.12 Using the Australian regional atmospheric reanalysis to assess climate-related haz- Oral Presentations ards Tuesday Authors: Chun-Hsu Su1, Nathan Eizenberg1, Christopher J. White2,3, Stuart Matthews4, Paul Fox-Hughes1,2, Doerte Jakob1, Samuel Sauvage1, Mitchell Black1, Robert Fawcett1, Robert Smalley1, Peter Steinle1 Affiliations: 1 Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 2Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia, 3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univer- sity of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK, 4New South Wales Rural Fire Oral Presentations Service, Lidcombe, NSW, Australia T Wednesday he Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Reanaly- sis for Australia (BARRA, http://www.bom.gov.au/research/projects/reanal- ysis) is the first atmospheric reanalysis produced by the Bureau for the Austra- lian region. It is co-funded by several state fire agencies and state government agencies. When completed in 2019, BARRA will provide over 25 years of hourly reconstructions of past atmospheric conditions from 1990 onwards. BARRA’s 12-km regional reanalysis (BARRA-R) over the Australia and New Zealand regions is bounded by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Importantly, BAR- RA includes multiple convection-permitting (1.5-km) dynamical downscaling analyses (BARRA-xx) over smaller sub-domains, nested within BARRA-R, to provide additional fine-scale detail. Oral Presentations By providing additional fine-scale detail from the surface to the lower strato- sphere, beyond what can be obtained by coarser-scale global reanalyses or Thursday global climate models, BARRA supports high-quality assessments of weather and climate related risks and is well suited for the study of high-impact histor- ical events. BARRA will provide information on the multi-decadal time scales required for assessing hazards and risks in the present climate. We anticipate that in time BARRA and its successors will be an important supplement to existing climate information. BARRA is used by fire agencies for developing a new climatology of fire diagnostics and to drive fire predictive model simulations for representative Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations fire weather events. BARRA has also become a critical data set for refining the threshold values of the new rating categories for an Australian National Fire Danger Ratings System (NFDRS), and permitting an understanding of the behaviour of the NFDRS over an extended period. Significant variability in the density of observational networks across Australia and the lack of high-qual- ity observation networks for solar, wind and sub-surface parameters provide impetus for using BARRA to (i) create climatologies for variables such as wind, radiation, and soil moisture, (ii) enhance the Bureau’s existing spatially 23
International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis interpolated gridded climate data sets for precipitation and temperature, and (iii) provide tailored services to satisfy requests from both public and private Oral Presentations sectors. In this presentation, we discuss these growing uses of BARRA in the areas of data provision and services, disaster and risk management. Tuesday WE.13 Remote sensing of global snow cover (In- vited talk) Authors: Andreas J. Dietz1, Claudia Künzer1 1 Affiliation: German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, Germany S Oral Presentations now cover is an important variable for water availability, the radiation bud- get, glaciers, flora and fauna, and may cause natural disasters such as ava- Wednesday lanches or floods. In many countries, snow is an important source of freshwa- ter for reservoirs and the subsequent production of electricity. Climate change is affecting the global snow cover distribution, extent, and mass, influencing all the aforementioned parameters. It is therefore important to monitor the developments and changes to be able to detect possible trends and future impacts of changing snow cover on our environment. Remote Sensing offers an ideal data source to detect global snow cover with both high temporal and spatial resolution. Observations from medium resolu- tion sensors such as AVHRR, MODIS, or Sentinel-3 provide time series of daily data, which can be processed and classified to calculate the snow cover extent Oral Presentations on a global scale. Polar night, cloud cover, and complex terrain in mountain regions can cause data gaps and classification uncertainties. To overcome these Thursday problems, several techniques can be applied to the data in order to provide a consistent time series of daily snow cover information, which can further be processed to derive parameters such as snow cover duration per year or beginning/end of snow cover season. These parameters can be analysed to quantify the effects of climate change on snow cover on local, regional, and global scales. The presentation will outline the different steps in order to obtain snow cover information from remote sensing data and how these snow cover parameters can further be processed. Several examples will be presented for possible ap- Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations plications, and the opportunity of combining the results from remote sensing with those obtained by modelling/re-analysis will also be discussed. WE.14 Data assimilation of urban weather obser- vations in WRF to model the urban cli- mate of Amsterdam. 24
ISRR 2018 Bonn Germany Authors: Sytse Koopmans1, Ronald van Haren2, Gert-Jan Steeneveld1, Natalie Theeuwes3, Remko Uijlenhoet1, Albert A.M Holtslag1 Oral Presentations 1 Affiliations: Wageningen University and Research, the Netherlands, 2 Netherlands eScience Center, the Netherlands, 3University of Tuesday Reading, United Kingdom O ngoing world-wide climate change and urbanization illustrate the need to understand urban hydrometeorology and its implications for human thermal comfort and water management. Numerical weather prediction models can assist to understand these issues, as they progress increasingly towards finer scales. With high model resolutions (grid spacing of 100m), effective representation of cities becomes crucial. The complex structures of cities, configuration of buildings, streets and scattered vegetation, require a Oral Presentations different modelling approach than the homogeneous rural surroundings. The Wednesday current urban canopy-layer schemes account for these city specific character- istics, but differ substantially amongst each other due to uncertainty in land use parameters and incomplete physical understanding. Therefore, the hindcasting of the urban environment needs improvement. In this study, we improve the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) meso- scale model performance by incorporating observations of a variety of sourc- es using data assimilation (WRF-3DVAR) and nudging techniques on a resolu- tion up to 100 meter. Data assimilation aims to accurately describe the most probable atmospheric state by steering the model fields in the direction of the observations. Assimilated observations consists of WMO synoptic weather observations, volume radar data and urban weather observations Oral Presentations recorded by hobby meteorologists. Thursday Specific to urban boundary layers, a novel approach has been developed to nudge modelled urban canyon temperatures with quality controlled ur- ban weather observations. Adjusting the urban fabric accordingly is crucial, because of the large heat storage within urban canopies. The road and wall layers of the urban canopy are adjusted depending on the bulk heat transfer coefficient and urban geometry. In addition, the representation of the anthro- pogenic heat release within the urban canopy model SLUCM is improved by incorporating this flux predominantly into the canyon instead of the first model layer above the canyon. Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations The subsequent data assimilation steps are evaluated for hindcasts of July 2014 for the Netherlands. July 2014 is characterized by both a warm dry period and two days with extreme precipitation (more than 100mm in two days). The largest improvement is made by assimilating the air temperature, dew point temperature and pressure from WMO synoptic stations. Assimilating additional radar data, slightly improves the location of the precipitation indicated by the fraction skill score. The data assimilation of urban weather stations, lastly, reduces the cold biases within the urban canopy 25
International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis which appeared in WRF. Our final goal is to create a 15-year climatological urban re-analysis data Oral Presentations archive of (hydro)meteorological variables which is named ERA-urban. This will enable us to trace trends in thermal comfort and extreme precipitation. Tuesday WE.15 Towards a Convective Scale Atmospheric Reanalysis including a Soil-Vegetation-At- mosphere-Transfer-Model Authors: Clarissa Figura1, Insa Thiele-Eich1, Jan D. Keller2,3, Wolfgang Kurtz4, Clemens Simmer1, Andreas Hense1 1 Affiliations: Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany, Oral Presentations 2 Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Bonn, Germany, Wednesday 3 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 4Institute of Bio- and Geosciences (Agrosphere, IBG-3), Research Centre Jülich, Germany R eanalyses data sets are not only of value in the atmospheric sciences, but also in other disciplines such as hydrology or agriculture, where they can be used in numerous applications. Current global reanalyses, albeit being a valuable source of information, lack a comprehensive representation of the terrestrial system as a whole, including land surface and subsurface espe- cially if data for the meso β/γ scale are required. For instance, diurnal to seasonal water cycles in subcontinental river catchments are often not well Oral Presentations represented. Recent studies showed that employing global reanalyses as forcing for land Thursday surface model simulations of specific river basins, with higher grid spacing, lead to an improvement in the representation of soil moisture and precipitation. The next step is to allow a feedback between the improved land surface and the atmosphere to take place within the reanalysis system. This study focuses on a retrospective analysis of a short summer period for a river catchment in Germany. The setup includes a limited area model at horizontal resolutions of 1 km for the atmosphere and 500 m for the soil. The simulations are based on the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TerrSysMP) which consists of three model components, the atmospheric Tuesday / Wednesday Poster Presentations model COSMO, the surface model CLM3.5 (Community Land Model) and the 3-dimensional hydrological model ParFlow, connected via an exter- nal coupler (OASIS3), for the exchange of relevant state vectors. During the simulation, rain radar reflectivities are continuously assimilated with the KENDA framework, which is the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) implementation, operationally used at the German Meteorological Service (DWD). The results are analysed with a focus on precipitation and soil moisture in order to evaluate the added value of using a fully coupled 26
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