IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF THE END OR THE END OF THE BEGINNING? - Finding the future of the New Zealand food and beverage industry - MBIE
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IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF THE END OR THE END OF THE BEGINNING? Finding the future of the New Zealand food and beverage industry DISCUSSION DOCUMENT; v1.01; Late 2019
IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF THE END OR THE END OF THE BEGINNING? Finding the future of the New Zealand food and beverage industry DISCUSSION DOCUMENT Late 2019 V1.01
DISCLAIMER
COPYRIGHT LIMITATIONS
All photos used in this discussion document were This work is based on secondary market research,
either sourced by Coriolis from The New Zealand analysis of information available (e.g. Statistics NZ),
Story, a range of stock photography providers as and a range of interviews with industry participants
documented or are low resolution, complete and industry experts. Coriolis have not
product/brand for illustrative purposes used under independently verified this information and make
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and ‘review and criticism’. Our usage of them that such information is accurate or complete. In
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significant modelling and estimates.
If at any point you are unclear where a number
came from or how a conclusion was derived,
please contact the authors directly. We are
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3
This discussion document exists to not to give you the
answer, but to spark thought and discussion on the
future of New Zealand’s largest industry.
The views expressed are those of the Coriolis team
involved and do not represent Government policy, or
the views of the Ministry of Primary Industries, the
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment or
New Zealand Trade and Enterprise.
4
The wider food chain directly employs one in five working people
in New Zealand
NZ POPULATION BY EMPLOYMENT FOOD CHAIN EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR
People; m; 2017 People; %; 2017 NOTE: Tight definition; excludes all
inputs and support services; if
included likely closer to 1/3
Over 65
15% Doing Primary
something
other than
25%
Foodservice
working
Under 15 13% 31%
20%
F&B Chain … or one in five of
working population
10%
F&B
F&B Mnfg.
Employed in Retailing F&B 19%
other sectors 18% Whls.
42% 7%
Total = 4.8m Total = 493,000
Whls – wholesaling; Mnfg – manufacturing; Source: Statistics NZ; Coriolis analysis and classifications
5
In regions outside of Wellington & Auckland, this wider food
chain directly employs 20-40% of the working population
PERCENT OF REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE FOOD CHAIN NOTE: Tight definition; excludes all
inputs and support services; if
% of employees; 2018 included likely closer to 1/3
40%
35% Food Retail &
Foodservice
30%
Wholesaling
25%
Processing
20%
15%
10% Primary
5%
0%
Wellington
Auckland
Bay of Plenty
Canterbury
Otago
Mana-Wanga
Northland
Waikato
Nelson/Tasman
West Coast
Hawke's Bay
Gisborne
Taranaki
Marlborough
Southland
Source: Statistics NZ; Coriolis analysis and classifications
6
Food & beverage is the major New Zealand export industry,
accounting for almost half of total goods and services exports
TOTAL NEW ZEALAND EXPORT OF GOODS AND SERVICES BY CATEGORY
NZ$; b; 2017
$33.6 $1.7 $6.5 $1.0 $9.0 $5.1 $16.6
Communications services
Animal biproducts
$0.1
$0.5
Financial services
$0.7
Metals
$1.9
Computer and information services
$0.7
Stone/Glass
$0.7
Royalties and licence fees
Skins, Leather, & Furs
$0.4
Textiles $0.4 Travel
$0.2 Apparel
$13.8
Confidential/other
Oil $0.1
Food & Beverage Wood & products
$6.0 $0.9
Plastics/Rubbers
$0.5
$1.7
$33.6 Chemicals
$1.0
Business services
Vehicles $1.9
$0.3
Medical Devices, other
$0.7
Media
Machinery / Electrical $0.3
$2.1
Other services Transportation
Minerals $0.8 $2.7
Wool
$0.5 $0.1 Other
$0.4
Food & Beverage Top Secret Wood & Wool Oil & Other Goods Services Travel
Minerals
Source: SNZ; Coriolis analysis and classifications
7
Machinery / Electrical
8
Vehicles
NET DEFICIT
Oil
The food & beverage industry achieves a large trade surplus,
-$347m
Chemicals
while most other sectors are underperforming or in deficit
NET TRADE POSITION IN TOTAL NEW ZEALAND TRADE (EXPORTS-IMPORTS)
Plastics/Rubbers
Other
Apparel
Transportation
DEFICIT
TRADE
Business Services
Medical Devices, Other
Other Services
Metals
Royalties and Licence Fees
Textiles
Stone/Glass
Computer and Info Services
Minerals
Communications Services
Skins, Leather, & Furs
Financial Services
SURPLUS
Media
TRADE
Animal Biproducts
Wool
Source: SNZ; Coriolis analysis and classifications
Confidential/Other
Wood & Products
NZ$; b; 2017
Travel
Food & Beverage
-$5
$5
$0
-$10
-$15
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
Oil
9
Metals
Food & beverage is growing exports strongly, where most other
Machinery / Electrical
Wool
SHRINKING
EXPORTS
Comm services
Vehicles
Skins, Leather, & Furs
Apparel
sectors are underperforming or going backwards
Textiles
Other
10 YEAR NET CHANGE IN TOTAL NEW ZEALAND EXPORTS
Minerals
Plastics/Rubbers
Other Services
Chemicals
Animal Biproducts
Media
GROWING
Royalties and Licence Fees
EXPORTS
Medical Devices, Other
Stone/Glass
Transportation
Computer and Info Services
Financial Services
Business Services
Source: SNZ; Coriolis analysis and classifications
NZ$; b; 2007-2017 Confidential/Other
Wood & Products
Travel
Food & Beverage
-$1
-$3
$9
$7
$5
$3
$1
$15
$13
$11
Iraq
10
Qatar
New Zealand has the highest ‘revealed comparative advantage’
Algeria
Kuwait
Japan
South Korea
Hong Kong SAR
Taiwan
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Singapore
Finland
Switzerland
China
Israel
Slovakia
REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN FOOD & BEVERAGE
Kazakhst an
Russia
Czech Republic
Germany
in food & beverage of any major exporter
United Kingdom
Sweden
Mexico
Canada
Austria
Philippines
Hungary
Romania
Italy
USA
Norway
Belgium
Malaysia
Ireland
RCI index; top 54 exporting countries; 2016
Turkey
Portugal
South Africa
India
Source: UN Comtrade; SNZ; Wikipedia; Coriolis analysis and classifications
Poland
France
Vietnam
Thailand
Australia
Spain
Net herlands
Colombia
Indonesia
Denmark
Peru
Chile
Brazil
Ukraine
Argent ina
New Zealand
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0Yet, there is a strong consensus in New Zealand that agriculture
cannot continue to grow
“We can only feed 40 “We need to produce less “We can’t possibly
million people” not more” produce any more”
“Agriculture is a sunset “We are at the limits of “Farmers are already
industry” the environment” producing too much”
11This report strongly disagrees with this consensus
THE NEW ZEALAND CONSENSUS THE HERETICAL PARADIGM
INSIDE THE “PASTORAL” BUBBLE THINKING OUTSIDE THE BUBBLE THINKING
New Zealand is a major food producer that leads the world; New Zealand is a minor food producer that uses a large amount
New Zealand agriculture is highly productive of land to produce very little relative output
Current New Zealand land use is ideal and optimal as it was Land use is a high risk discovery process with no one right answer.
determined by market forces Current land use is the result of historical activity
New Zealand is a large country without a single monolithic climate.
The plants and animals produced in New Zealand are highly Regions vary dramatically in their natural endowment.
suited to the New Zealand environment (climatic and growing
conditions) and thus will not change The animals and plants currently produced are a result of the
country or origin of past waves of immigrants
The government has played a massive role in the development of
The government does not have a role to play in new industry
all major agricultural products in New Zealand;* the government
development; just enforce the rules
will need to play a role in the development of new products
New Zealand land use will not change significantly going forward New Zealand land use will continue to change
New Zealand is globally competitive in the products it currently
Agricultural competitiveness is a dynamic system; new producers
produces in large quantities; it is not competitive in the products it
can and do enter markets; new entrants start in smaller niche
does not produce or produces in small quantities; therefore New
segments and “climb down the cost curve” as volumes grow
Zealand cannot produce new products as it will not be competitive
Other rich, developed countries similar to New Zealand employ
No one wants to work in agriculture and there is currently a
significantly larger numbers of people in agriculture; technological
shortages of low cost labour; therefore agriculture cannot grow
change is occurring and products vary in their level of automation
12Broadly speaking, there are three key drivers available to
increase revenue and employment in the agrifood chain
1 2 3
LAND IN OUTPUT PER VALUE ADDED
REVENUE
PRODUCTION X HECTARE X PER TONNE = & JOBS
(Hectares) (T/ha) ($/t)
Re-evaluate viability of non- Improving yields Improving products
agricultural lands
Changing land use Improve positioning
Limit flow of lands out of
agriculture (e.g. urban growth) Increasing irrigation Transforming product
Using high productivity
production systems (e.g.
aquaculture)
131. MORE FARM LAND
New Zealand is unlikely to bring new land into agriculture
1
LAND IN
PRODUCTION
(Hectares)
Re-evaluate viability of non-
agricultural lands
Limit flow of lands out of
agriculture (e.g. urban growth)
14Food production uses almost half of New Zealand’s land and
much of its oceans
NEW ZEALAND LAND USE NZ ECONOMIC ZONE*
km2; 000; 2010 Area; depth; 2018
Other government lands
Non-Ag Tribal Lands
Lifestyle blocks Defined as 200
Cities and towns nautical miles from
Idle lands
Other Other coastline
41 16%
Other DOC
14 5% Farming
126
47%
National
parks &
reserves
71 26%
Forestry
(private)
16 6%
TOTAL = 268,000 km2
*EEZ; Note: a nautical mile is 1,852 metres; Source: Statistics NZ; Department of Conservation; Sealord; Coriolis analysis
15New Zealand already farms a reasonable percent of its total land
area, similar to France or Italy, but much less than Ireland
SHARE OF TOTAL LAND AREA USED IN AGRICULTURE INCLUDING PASTURE/RANGE
% of hectares; 2017 or as available
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Nebraska Lithuania Louisiana
North Dakota Oregon Slovenia
South Dakota Spain Florida
Kansas Idaho Estonia
Iowa Czechia Virginia
Queensland Belgium New York
Texas Kentucky Tasmania
Wyoming New Zealand Pennsylvania
Nevada France Alberta
New Mexico Italy North Carolina
Illinois Bulgaria Alabama
Ireland Portugal Georgia
Oklahoma Slovakia South Carolina
Montana Northern Territory West Virginia
United Kingdom Wisc onsin Vermont
NSW Arkansas Cyprus
Utah Delaware New Jersey
Colorado California Manitoba
Indiana Malt a Sweden
Denmark Greece Finland
Arizona Washington Rhode Island
Missouri Tennessee Connecticut
Romania Austria Massachusetts
Net herlands Saskatchewan Ontario
Hungary Lat via New Hampshire
Minnesota Prince Edward Island Maine
Luxembourg Western Australia Nova Sc otia
Ohio Maryland New Brunswick
Victoria Croatia Quebec
South Aust ralia Hawaii Brit ish Columbia
Germany Michigan Alaska
Poland Mississippi Newfoundland
Source: Eurostat; Statistics Canada; USDA Census of Agriculture; ABS; Statistics NZ; Ministry for the Environment (NZ); CIA World Factbook; Coriolis analysis
16The amount of land in agriculture in New Zealand has been
trending down since the 80’s
TOTAL NEW ZEALAND AREA IN FARMING AND PRIVATE FORESTRY
Hectares; 1891-2018
1994-2018
20,000,000
Discussed next page
15,000,000
10,000,000 In 2018 New
Zealand is now
back where it
was in 1898
5,000,000
-
1891
1894
1897
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
Source: various editions of “A Statistical Account of the Seven Colonies of Australasia”; New Zealand Department of Statistics; Statistics New Zealand; Coriolis analysis
17In the last 25 years alone, a large amount of land (-17%) has
left farming
TOTAL AREA ON FARMS AREA LOST RELATIVE TO SOME USES
Hectares; 1994-2018 Hectares; lost 94-18 or 2018
Current Area
16,606,969
342,900
-17% 132,400
13,724,504 42,800 34,500 33,981
-2,882,465 Lost 94-18 Arable Arable VegetablesFruit & Nuts Wine
fodder food Grapes
Since 1994 New Zealand has lost -2.88m
hectares of land from farming, or five
times as much area as is currently in all
plant based foods
-2,882,465
1994 Lost 2018
Source: Statistics New Zealand; Coriolis analysis
182. HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY
New Zealand is increasing output of existing land through
transitioning to higher productivity animal and plant systems
1 2
LAND IN OUTPUT PER
PRODUCTION X HECTARE
(Hectares) (T/ha)
ANIMAL PLANT
BASED BASED
PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
19Can we increase productivity (more output from inputs)?; products
vary dramatically in terms of value created per hectare
REALISED NEW ZEALAND “FARMGATE” VALUE PER HECTARE OF TOTAL SPACE
NZ$/hectare; 2017 or as available
Salmon $840,000
Oysters $80,000
Mussels $26,400
Kiwifruit $79,400
Apples $46,786
Carrots, similar $34,136
Top Onions, similar $28,861
25 by Lettuce $26,196
Potatoes $20,745
area Sweet potatoes $20,475
sorted Grapes $19,522
Avocados $17,211
by Broccoli, similar $13,765
value Currants $11,950
Pumpkins, similar $10,373
per Dairy $7,900
hectare Maize $4,292
Peas, green $2,998
Wheat $2,949
Peas, dry $2,485
Barley $2,443
Oats $2,401 Analysis uses total available area, not
Maize, green $1,650
Linseed $933
necessarily all of which is used at any one time
Deer $919
Rapeseed $882
Cattle/Sheep meat $649
Note: excludes high productivity, but primarily indoor animals (pigs, chickens, milking sheep and milking goats); Source: UN FAO; UN FISHSTAT; Plant & Food Research Fresh Facts; Statistics NZ;
DairyNZ; Beef&Lamb NZ; Zespri; NZKS; Coriolis analysis 20Only a small amount of New Zealand’s land is currently used at
high productivity to create significant value per hectare
NEW ZEALAND AGRICULTURAL LAND USE: AREA VS AG VALUE PER HECTARE
NZ$; actual; hectares; 2017 or as available
$79,400 (Kiwifruit)
EXCLUDES
AQUACULTURE
Average
farmgate
value per
hectare
NZ$;
2017
$34,600 (Other Hort)
Ag land
$19,400 (Wine)
average
$2,200/ha
$7,900
$4,600
$2,700
$750 $0
Kiwifruit
Other Hort
Wine
Dairy
Other livestock
Forestry Sheep/Beef/Grain Non-Agricultural
Proportional to total land area of New Zealand; sqkm; 2017
Note: Other Hort here also includes nursery and floriculture unable to remove due to limitations of available data; Source: UN FAO database (populated by MPI); PFR Fresh Facts; Zespri Annual
Report; NZW annual report; Ministry for the Environment; Statistics NZ; CIA World Factbook; Coriolis analysisAs a result, New Zealand currently produces an average of 11
on-farm jobs per 1,000 hectares of agricultural land
NEW ZEALAND AGRICULTURAL LAND AREA VS ON-FARM JOBS PER 1,000 HECTARES
Headcount/1,000 ha of farmland; actual; hectares; 2017 or as available
366 (Kiwifruit)
EXCLUDES
AQUACULTURE
Average
jobs
created 273 (Other Hort)
per 1,000
hectare;
Headcount;
2018
126 (Wine)
New Zealand creates an average of 11
on-farm jobs per 1,000 hectare of
agricultural land
28
16
5
Kiwifruit
Other hort
Wine
Other Livestock
Dairy Cattle Sheep, Beef Cattle and Grain Farming
Proportional to total agricultural area of New Zealand; hectares; 2017
Note: Other Hort here also includes nursery and floriculture unable to remove due to limitations of available data; Source: UN FAO database (populated by MPI); PFR Fresh Facts; Zespri Annual
Report; NZW annual report; Ministry for the Environment; Statistics NZ; CIA World Factbook; Coriolis analysisAt 11 jobs per hectare, New Zealand is performing like a desert
region, rather than a temperate climate foodbowl
TEXAS NEW ALASKA
8 ZEALAND 11
11
IRELAND ITALY NETHERLANDS
22 68 106
23350
300
250
200
150
100
24
50
-
Connecticut
Massach usetts
Rhode Island
There is a strong high level case that New Zealand can create
Malta
Newfoundland
New Jersey
Romania
Slovenia
Netherlands
Bulgaria
Cyprus
New Hampshire
Nova Scotia
106
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Maine
Greece
British Columbia
New Brunswick
Italy
Croatia
68
Italy
Pennsylv ania
Vermont
Source: Eurostat; CIA World Fact Book; StatisticsNZ; USDA NASS; USDA Census of Agriculture; UN FAO AgStat; MPI; LCDB database; Coriolis analysis and estimates
Austria
Hungary
Quebec
West Virginia
North C arolina
Hawaii
Florida
Washington
Belgium
South Carolina
Marylan d
ON-FARM JOBS PER 1,000 HECTARES: NZ VS. PEERS
Ontario
Czech ia
Germany
Georgia
Prince Edward Island
Virgin ia
Finland
34
New York
Germany
Michigan
Tennessee
Headcount/1,000 ha of farmland; 2017 or as available
Lithuania
Delaware
Spain
Alabama
California
Kentucky
France
Ohio
Wisconsin
26
Luxembourg
France
Latv ia
Slovak ia
UK
23
Denmark
United Kingdom
Ireland
Sweden
Ireland
22
Louisiana
Mississippi
Indiana
Estonia
more on-farm jobs
Arkan sas
Missouri
Minnesota
Iowa
Oregon
Illinois
Alaska
New Zealand
Oklahoma
New
Zealand
11
Manitoba
Texas
Idaho
Alberta
Kansas
Colorado
Nebraska
Saskatchewan
Utah
South Dakota
North D ak ota
Arizona
New Mexico
Montana
Wyoming
NevadaNew Zealand is moving to higher productivity animal production
systems
1 2
LAND IN OUTPUT PER
PRODUCTION X HECTARE
(Hectares) (T/ha)
ANIMAL PLANT
BASED BASED
PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
WANDERING SUPPLEMENT AQUA-
BARNS
AROUND ARY FEEDING CULTURE
25Unlike other countries, New Zealand still uses most of its
agricultural land for “low density/extensive” animal systems
SHARE OF AGRICULTURAL FARMLAND IN GRASSLAND/PASTURE: NZ VS. EU
% of agricultural area; 2018 or as available
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Scottish Highlands
New Zealand
Ireland
SW Scotland
West Wales/Valleys
East Wales
Northern Ireland
Devon
Eastern Scotland
United Kingdom
Slovenia
Portugal
Luxembourg
NE Scotland
Austria
Greece
Netherlands
Croatia
Belgium
Romania
Latvia
Spain
France
Estonia
Germany
Slovakia
Czechia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Italy
Poland
Sweden
Hungary
Denmark
Cyprus
Finland
Malta
Grassland & Fodder Crops Grains, Vegetable, Fruit & Nuts
Places that sent many Places that did not send many
immigrants to New Zealand* immigrants to New Zealand
*New Zealand agriculture follows the ‘idealised’ British Isles pastoralist world view; Source: Eurostat; CIA World Fact Book; StatisticsNZ; UN FAO AgStat; MPI; LCDB database; Coriolis analysis and
estimates 26Production of New Zealand’s “low density/extensive” animal
systems is falling
# OF SHEEP # OF BEEF CATTLE # OF DEER FISH CAPTURE
Head; m; 1984-2018 Head; m; 1974-2018 Head; m; 1999-2018 Tonnes; 000; 1997-2017
80 7 2.0 700.0
1.8
70
6 600.0
1.6
60
5 500.0
1.4
50
1.2
4 400.0
40 1.0
3 300.0
0.8
30
0.6
2 200.0
20
0.4
1 100.0
10
0.2
- - - -
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Source: Statistics NZ; UN FAO FishStat; Coriolis analysis
27New Zealand “low density/extensive” animals are low yield
relative to other developed countries and regions
MILK PER COW PER YEAR MEAT PER CATTLE ANIMAL KILLED
Litres; 2018 or as available KG; 2018 or as available
14,000 4,000
12,000 3,500
3x
10,000 3,000
2x
8,000 2,500
6,000
2,000
4,000
1,500
2,000
1,000
-
500
Brazil
Chile
Uruguay
New Zealand
Ireland
Tasmania
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Canada
Denmark
Nevada
California
Arizona
Idaho
New Mexico
Colorado
Israel
- Albania
Romania
Bulgaria
New Zealand
Ukraine
Montenegro
Net herlands
Serbia
Greece
Croatia
Switzerland
Canada
Portugal
Hungary
Slovakia
Denmark
Spain
Australia
Norway
Italy
Czechia
Poland
Belgium
Finland
France
Germany
Sweden
United Kingdom
Ireland
Austria
USA
Wandering Around Barn
Source: StatisticsNZ; UN FAO AgStat; Coriolis analysis
28Average $5.03
India
$3.04
29
New Zealand’s “low density/extensive” animal products often sell
Brazil
$4.03
GLOBAL BEEF TRADE: VOL VS. VAL
$4.22 Paraguay
Other
$4.34
$4.43 Poland
$4.72 France
$4.78 Spain
$4.92 New Zealand
Proportional to 2018 global export volume; US$ / kg FOB
$4.99 Uruguay
Export tonnes; US$/t; 2018
$5.15 Italy
$5.28 Argentina
$5.44 Canada
$5.49 Germany
$5.59 Belgium
at a discount, not a premium to world prices
$5.67 Australia
$5.70 Mexico
$6.24 United Kingdom
$6.27 Ireland
$6.53 Netherlands
USA
$7.18
Average $4.66
Poland
$3.57
Germany
$3.75
GLOBAL CHEESE TRADE: VOL VS. VAL
$3.84 Belarus
$4.01 Saudi Arabia
$4.08 New Zealand
$4.20 USA
$4.21 Belgium
$4.29 Ireland
Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
$4.39 Egypt
Proportional to 2018 global export volume; US$ / kg FOB
$4.44 Other
Export tonnes; US$/t; 2016
$4.53 Denmark
$4.65 Netherlands
$4.66 Australia
$4.74 United Kingdom
$4.88 Austria
$5.32 France
$5.53 Spain
$6.43 Greece
$7.80 Italy
$9.31 SwitzerlandBeing a stable, picturesque country with functioning environmental
regulation in the temperate zone (Clean & Green) is not a “moat”
NETHER
BAVARIA IRELAND WISCONSIN LANDS
SWITZER
LAND DENMARK FRANCE ITALY
TASMANIA BRITISH
COLUMBIA OREGON WALES
30New Zealand is increasing supplementary feeding, through both
(1) feed grain production and (2) animal feed imports
AREA IN FODDER GRAINS IMPORTS OF ANIMAL FEEDS/PKE*/ETC.
Hectares; 2002 vs. 2016 Tonnes; 000; 1996-2018
4,000
Apparent area of all non-
market cash crops Grains Animal feeds
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
291,745
1,500
1,000
500
46,330
-
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2002 2016
*PKE = Palm Kernel Expeller; Source: StatisticsNZ; UN Comtrade database; LCDB database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
31New Zealand production of barn raised animal protein is growing
POULTRY MEAT EGGS MILKING SHEEP/GOATS*
Tonnes; 000; 1961-2017 Tonnes; 000; 1994-2017 Headcount; 1995-2016
250 60 100,000
Goat Sheep
90,000
50
200 80,000
70,000
40
150 60,000
30 50,000
100 40,000
20
30,000
50 20,000
10
10,000
- - -
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
*Mix of barn and grazing; Source: Statistics NZ; UN FAO AgStat; Coriolis analysis and estimates
32Poultry meat has been a long term growth platform for NZ; a
simple model suggests production will exceed lamb by 2028
NEW ZEALAND MEAT PRODUCTION VOLUME: LAMB VS POULTRY
T; 000; 1985-2017; 2017-2030f
Sheep meat Simple
700
extrapolation
600
500
400
300
200
100
Poultry meat
0
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Source: UN FAO AgStat; Coriolis analysis and modelling
33New Zealand aquaculture production was growing until it was
stalled by “non-market action”
AVAILABLE AREA VS. AQUACULTURE TONNES AQUACULTURE
km2; 2018 T; 000; 1980-2018 Stalled
120
4,083,744
100
80
60
Mussels
Aquaculture currently
40
uses 0.001% of New
Zealand’s water space
20
464,537
Salmon
4,301 57 - Oysters
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Sea Area Land area Inland water Aquaculture
Source: UN FishStat; Statistics NZ; MPI/MAF/MoF; industry sources; Coriolis analysis and estimates
34New Zealand has clear potential to produce more aquaculture
MATRIX: TONNES/KILOMETRE VS DOLLARS/KILOMETRE VS TOTAL INDUSTRY VALUE
T/km (actual); US$/km (actual); total US$m; 2018 or as available
$350,000
US$ per Norway
kilometre of
coastline; $300,000
2018 or as
available France Netherlands
$250,000
$200,000 Poland
Romania
$150,000 Ireland Turkey
Lithuania Spain
UK
Slovenia
$100,000
Cyprus Bulgaria
NZ Finland Italy
Size of bubble is proportional to total $1,000
$50,000 Portugal Germany value; a bubble this size is US$1b
Greece
Sweden
Belgium Croatia Denmark
$0 Estonia
Iceland 0 Latvia 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 140
Tonnes of aquaculture produced per kilometre of coastline; t/km; 2018 or as available
Source: UN FAO FishStat; Eurostat; MPI; CIA World Fact Book; Coriolis analysis
35New Zealand is increasing production higher productivity plant
production systems
1 2
LAND IN OUTPUT PER
PRODUCTION X HECTARE
(Hectares) (T/ha)
ANIMAL PLANT
BASED BASED
PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
MECHANICALLY
ARABLE TREE CROPS PROTECTED
HARVESTED
CROPS (FRUIT & NUTS) CROPPING
VEGETABLES
36Most New Zealand farm land is currently used to to graze
animals; only 2.2% of all land is used for plant based foods
NEW ZEALAND AGRICULTURAL LAND USE
Area; % of area; 2017
Kiwifruit Wine
Other Hort 0.05% 0.14% Arable crops
0.32% Plant based foods
1.69%
2.2%
Grazing animals 44% of
Sheep/Beef
36% 41% of all land all land
Non-Agricultural
49% 97% of ag (x forestry)
Dairy
Forestry 5%
7%
Other livestock
1%
TOTAL = 264,537 sqkm
Source: UN FAO database (populated by MPI); PFR Fresh Facts; Zespri Annual Report; NZW annual report; Ministry for the Environment; Statistics NZ; CIA World Factbook; Coriolis analysis
3738
Comor os
Tu val u
Banglades h
Mol dova
New Zealand currently performs like a desert country in share of
Denmar k
Ukrai ne
Rwanda
In dia
Mar s ha l Is la nd s
Bur undi
Mi cr ones ia
Kir ibat i
Hungary
Gaza Str ip
SãoTomé and Prí nci pe
Tog o
Hait i
Uganda
Niger i a
El Sa lv ador
Mal div es
Wall is and Futu na
Czech Republi c
Gam bia
land in plant based foods (grains, vegetables, fruit & nuts)
Serbi a
Romania
Maur it iu s
Mal awi
Th ai land
France
Barba dos
Poland
Tonga
SHARE OF TOTAL COUNTRY AREA IN GRAINS, VEGETABLES, FRUIT & NUTS
Cuba
Sri L anka
Phi li ppin es
Sain t Vi ncent and th e Gr enadi nes
Li th uania
Gr enada
Fr anc e
Ger many
Mal ta
Spain
Tu ni si a
Viet nam
Ghana
Domi ni c a
Bul gar ia
It aly
Syri a
Neth er la nds
Italy
Tu r key
Slovakia
Sain t L uci a
Pakis tan
Gr eec e
Belgi um
Belar us
Niu e
Domi ni c an Republ ic
Bri ti sh Vir gi n Is l ands
Beni n
Sier ra L eone
Azerba ijan
Albani a
Unit edKi ngdom
In dones ia
Li ec ht enst ein
UK
Cook I sl ands
Amer ic an Samoa
Lu xem bourg
Leba non
Tr i ni dad andTobag o
Cambodi a
Cote d'I voir e
Guat emala
Anti guaand Bar buda
Mal aysi a
Sain t Ki t s and Nevis
Guam
Bosn i aand Her zegovin a
Nor th Korea
Bur kin a Fas o
Mor oc co
Jam aic a
Berm ud a
Mont ser r at
Port ugal
Lat via
Bur ma
Pales ti ne[3]
Mac edonia
Seneg al
Arm enia
Croa ti a
Sout h Kor ea
Is rael
Nor th er n M ari anaI s lands
Aust r ia
Unit edSt ates
San M ari no
Ta nz ani a
Camer oon
Et hiopi a
Nepal
Sud an
Ir eland
Seych el les
Guin ea- Bis s au
Ireland
Es t onia
Nic ar agua
Ti mor - Les t e
Guin ea
Arg ent in a
Mont enegr o
Fi ji
Mexi co
Honduras
Palau
Cypr us
Chin a
Sain t Pi err eand M iquelon
Jap an
Niger
Cape Verd e
Japan
Puer t oRi co
Afg ha ni st an
Ir an
% of total area; N=Earth; 2015 or as available
Vanuatu
Cost a Ric a
Parag ua y
Uzbekis tan
Swi tz er la nd
Kenya
Swazil and
Samoa
Aru ba
Uru guay
Ec uador
Les ot ho
Sout h A fr ic a
Neth er la nds Anti l es
Panama
Slovenia
Brazi l
Is le of Ma n
Kazakhs t an
Ir aq
U.S. Vi r gin I s lands
Bahrai n
Geor gia
Fi nland
Rus s ia
Li ber ia
Kyrgyzs t an
Ta jik i st an
Madag asc ar
Fr enc h Pol ynes i a
Laos
Er i tr ea
Mozamb ique
Sweden
Aust r alia
Source: UN FAO AgStat; CIA World Factbook; Coriolis analysis
Mal i
Eq ua tor ial G uin ea
Canada
Zambi a
Beliz e
Tu r kmenis t an
Peru
Angola
Chad
Venezuel a
Cayman Is lands
Yemen
Boliv i a
Eg ypt
Solomon Is lands
Alger ia
Centr al Af ri c an Republ ic
Jor dan
Colom bia
Zealand
Bru nei
Sin gapor e
Bhu t an
Yemen
Tu r ks and Caic os I s lands
New
Chil e
Nor way
Guyana
PapuaN ew Guin ea
Fa roe Is lands
Andorr a
New Zealand
Somali a
Republi c of t he Congo
Democ r ati c Republi c of t heC ong o
Gabon
Saudi Ar abia
Qat ar
Li bya
Arabia
Saudi
Nami bia
Unit edAr ab Emi rat es
Kuwait
Bahamas
Bots wana
New Cal edonia
Sur i na me
Maur it ania
Mongol ia
Oma n
Ic eland
Dji bouti
West ern Sahar a
Vat ic an Cit y
Monac o
0%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%New Zealand currently uses an almost negligible amount of total
land in arable crops
SHARE OF TOTAL COUNTRY AREA IN ARABLE GRAINS & PULSES**
% of area; ha; 2018 or as available
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
NZ
Wales
N. Ireland
Ireland
Scotland
Netherlands
Norway
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Belgium
Cyprus
Greece
Sweden
Italy
Latvia
Austria
England
Spain
France
Estonia
Croatia
Germany
Lithuania
Slovakia
Finland
Czech Republic
Romania
Denmark
Poland
Bulgaria
Hungary
Major contributors to
early NZ colonists*
*New Zealand agriculture appears to be overweighed to the ‘idealised’ British Isles pastoralist world view; ** excludes fodder crops; Source: Eurostat; CIA World Fact Book; StatisticsNZ; UN FAO
AgStat; MPI; LCDB database; Coriolis analysis and estimates 39New Zealand is moving to more crop farms with more area per
farm and more overall area in arable crops
CROP FARM UNITS AVERAGE AREA/UNIT TOTAL AREA IN CROPS**
#; 02vs18 m2; 02vs17/18* m2; 02vs17
448,777
3,219 139
2,472
90
222,791
2002 2018 2002 2018 2002 2017
*Uses 2017 area over 2018 units (no 2018 area available); ** Includes fodder; Source: Statistics NZ; UN FAO; MAF/MPI; Ministry for the Environment; Coriolis analysis
40New Zealand can produce more mechanically harvestable
vegetables HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
LAND WOULD COME ONLINE
AREA IN MHV* % OF TOTAL AREA IF NZ MATCHED THIS PEER?
Hectares; 2017 % of country; km2; 2017 Model; New NZ ha in MHV; 2020+
Net herlands 216,108 Net herlands 5.8% Net herlands 1,541,734
Belgium 112,603 Belgium 3.7% Belgium 974,595
Poland 418,853 Poland 1.3% Poland 339,273
Denmark 55,412 Denmark 1.3% Denmark 324,750
Romania 274,889 Romania 1.2% Romania 288,849
Germany 300,568 Germany 0.8% Germany 204,614
United Kingdom 200,113 United Kingdom 0.8% United Kingdom 199,797
Serbia 55,051 Serbia 0.6% Serbia 145,480
Albania 17,875 Albania 0.6% Albania 145,145
Portugal 43,075 Portugal 0.5% Portugal 103,484
Switzerland 17,519 Switzerland 0.4% Switzerland 91,747
Italy 124,614 Italy 0.4% Italy 88,821
Lat via 26,674 Lat via 0.4% Lat via 88,723
Lithuania 25,681 Lithuania 0.4% Lithuania 83,341
France 233,772 France 0.4% France 76,885
Austria 30,660 Austria 0.4% Austria 75,845
Spain 164,739 Spain 0.3% Spain 65,031
Slovenia 5,871 Slovenia 0.3% Slovenia 55,299
Hungary 24,729 Hungary 0.3% Hungary 48,869
Luxembourg 663 Luxembourg 0.3% Luxembourg 46,315
Croatia 13,585 Croatia 0.2% Croatia 41,897
Greece 30,359 Greece 0.2% Greece 39,199
Slovakia 9,420 Slovakia 0.2% Slovakia 28,932
Bulgaria 20,012 Bulgaria 0.2% Bulgaria 25,788
Ireland 12,338 Ireland 0.2% Ireland 24,460
Estonia 6,557 Estonia 0.1% Estonia 16,185
Montenegro 1,998 Montenegro 0.1% Montenegro 16,098
New Zealand 23,027 New Zealand 0.1% New Zealand -
Finland 26,547 Finland 0.1% Finland (1,810)
Sweden 28,710 Sweden 0.1% Countries in the Sweden (5,434)
Norway 15,544 Norway 0.0% Norway (10,043)
Canada Canada
actual arctic circle
374,936 0.0% Canada (12,871)
Iceland 636 Iceland 0.0% Iceland (21,357)
* MHV = Mechanically Harvestable Vegetables (defined as potatoes, sweet potatoes, other root crops, onions, carrots, cabbages, cauliflower and similar); Source: UN FAO; CIA World Factbook;
Coriolis analysis 41New Zealand can produce more fruit, nuts and wine grapes
AREA IN F, N & WG % OF TOTAL AREA IF NZ MATCHED THIS PEERS %?
Hectares; 2018 or as available % of country SQKM; 2018 or as New NZ ha in FNWG; 2020+
Spain 4,576,628 Spain 9.0% Spain 2,309,164
Italy 2,604,547 Italy 8.6% Italy 2,200,563
Portugal 678,766 Portugal 7.4% Portugal 1,856,353
Serbia 426,502 Serbia 4.8% Serbia 1,168,321
Greece 614,689 Greece 4.7% Greece 1,122,731
Hungary 328,948 Hungary 3.5% Hungary 819,201
France 1,820,962 France 2.9% France 641,088
Romania 682,921 Romania 2.9% Romania 637,636
Albania 80,382 Albania 2.8% Albania 619,077
Poland 822,258 Poland 2.6% Poland 574,066
Slovenia 39,948 Slovenia 2.0% Slovenia 395,783
Croatia 103,886 Croatia 1.8% Croatia 359,306
Bulgaria 163,324 Bulgaria 1.5% Bulgaria 261,223
Belgium 43,092 Belgium 1.4% Belgium 244,606
Austria 105,288 Austria 1.3% Austria 202,359
Luxembourg 3,210 Luxembourg 1.2% Luxembourg 198,557
Net herlands 42,869 Net herlands 1.1% Net herlands 173,226
Switzerland 47,249 Switzerland 1.1% Switzerland 172,373
Montenegro 15,677 Montenegro 1.1% Montenegro 169,814
Germany 379,190 Germany 1.1% Germany 150,014
Belarus 186,321 Belarus 0.9% Belarus 105,571
Lithuania 55,134 Lithuania 0.8% Lithuania 91,187
Slovakia 25,819 Slovakia 0.5% Slovakia 5,239
New Zealand 137,173 New Zealand 0.5% New Zealand -
Estonia 14,042 Estonia 0.3% Estonia (53,199)
United Kingdom 60,918 United Kingdom 0.3% United Kingdom (69,341)
Lat via 12,718 Lat via 0.2% Lat via (83,892)
Denmark 8,336 Denmark 0.2% Denmark (84,855)
Ireland 3,332 Ireland 0.0% Ireland (124,349)
Finland 14,190 Finland 0.0% Finland (125,832)
Norway 8,716 Norway 0.0% Countries in the Norway (129,893)
Canada 189,443 Canada 0.0% actual arctic circle Canada (132,041)
Sweden 8,000 Sweden 0.0% Sweden (132,271)
Iceland - Iceland 0.0% Iceland (137,173)
Source: UN FAO AgStat; ; CIA World Factbook; Coriolis analysis
42Peers suggest there are opportunities to increase the amount of
crop produced in greenhouses
AREA IN GREENHOUSE/UNDER COVER: NEW ZEALAND VS. SELECT PEERS
Hectare; 2014 or as available
89,600
81,000
72,800
71,698
57,444
The Netherlands has
49,746
49,049
more area in horticulture
inside than New
Zealand has outside
26,500
14,981
15,000
7,560
5,400
4,670
2,790
2,700
2,700
2,286
2,200
2,100
1,600
1,341
1,200
1,075
1,000
688
418
115
150
209
80
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Ireland
Switzerland
Austria
New Zealand
Serbia
Bulgaria
Columbia
Australia
Belgium
Chile
Argentina
Canada
Portugal
Ukraine
Romania
Germany
Hungary
Poland
Greece
United States
France
Japan
Turkey
South Korea
Spain
Italy
China
Netherlands
NOTE: Data is from a wide range of sources and may not be perfectly comparable; many countries include glasshouse, greenhouse/PE tunnel & low tunnel; range of estimates for China (up to
2,760,000ha); Source: Cuesta Roble Consulting; “Greenhouse production systems in Mediterranean area” Leonardi/De Pascale May 2010; “Greenhouse Technology Globally: The future of food”; 43
Coriolis analysis3. ADDING VALUE
The third potential driver is to add more value to existing output
1 2 3
LAND IN OUTPUT PER VALUE ADDED
REVENUE
PRODUCTION X HECTARE X PER TONNE = & JOBS
(Hectares) (T/ha) ($/t)
Improving products
Improve positioning
Transforming product
44New Zealand’s food & beverage exports are currently still over-
weighted to low value-added, unprocessed ingredients
AGRIFOOD EXPORTS VALUE SHARE BY SEGMENT: NZ VS OTHER RICH COUNTRIES
% of value; 2017
100%
Beverages
90%
Processed Foods
Oilseeds, Oils & Fats 80%
Grains
Produce 70%
60%
50%
Dairy 40%
30%
Seafood 20%
10%
Meat
0%
New Zealand
Canada
Denmark
Spain
Finland
Sweden
Netherlands
Ireland
Germany
Japan
Italy
United Kingdom
Switzerland
CLEAR STRATEGIC DIRECTION
Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
45New Zealand predominantly sells ingredients to others; as a
result, it is currently missing out on food manufacturing jobs
FIGURE 1: FLOW OF NEW ZEALAND MILK POWDER FROM THE FARMER TO CONSUMER
Simplified model POTENTIAL NEW JOBS
FARMERS DAIRY PROCESSORS FOOD MANUFACTURERS RETAILERS CONSUMERS
(milk) (milk powder) (processed foods) (products) (food)
Baked goods
Dairy products
Infant formula
Specialised nutritionals
Proc. meat/analogs
Beverages
Nutrition bars
Condiments
Confectionery
Dessert-type snacks
Pet foods
Savoury items
Photo credit: public domain; Source: Coriolis
46The New Zealand food industry has a clear strategic direction
towards greater product complexity
Complexity Complexity
Bulk Retail Milk Retail Medical & Fresh Canned Frozen Meal
Powder Powder Infant Specialty
Formula Infant Formula
Ingredient Instant Retail Bar Assorted/Mixed Basic Manuka Manuka Medical
Chocolate Chocolate Chocolate Chocolates Honey Honey Honey Honey
Crumb Drink Lozenges
Source: The Investor’s Guide to the New Zealand Processed Foods Industry 2017; Photo credit: various firms or fair use; low resolution; complete product/brand for illustrative purposes
47New Zealand has large and growing volumes of raw materials
suitable for making more complex, consumer-ready products
TOTAL NEW ZEALAND FOOD PRODUCTION VOLUME AT FARM GATE1
T; 000; 1961-2018
8,000
Honey
7,000 CAGR Dairy*
(61-18)
6,000 2.1%
5,000 Meat
4,000 Seafood
Eggs
Fruit**
3,000
2,000
Vegetables
1,000
Cereals
-
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
1. Dockside for seafood production; *Milk is milk solids; meat is dressed but bone-in; seafood is green weight as reported; **Fruit includes wine grapes; honey line is thickened to make it visible;
Source: United Nations FAOStat & FishStat; MAF/MPI; Coriolis analysis 48Peers suggest New Zealand can create more processed foods jobs
from its abundant raw materials
PROCESSED FOODS JOBS PER 1,000 TONNE RAW MATERIALS*
Headcount/1,000t; 2018 or as available
8.7
6.7
6.0 6.1
5.3
4.4
3.9
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8
3.1 3.2 3.3
2.1 2.2 2.2
1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0
1.5
1.2
Iceland
Spain
Norway
Belgium
France
Greece
New Zealand
Romania
Poland
Italy
Portugal
Austria
Denmark
Germany
Australia
Latvia
Sweden
Canada
Ireland
Lithuania
Hungary
Finland
Slovakia
Czechia
Slovenia
Croatia
Switzerland
United States
United Kingdom
Estonia
*Non-grain based; Source: UN FAO AgStat; UN FAO FishStat; Eurostat; Statistics Canada; US DOL; USDA NASS; Statistics NZ; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Coriolis classification and analysis
49Going forward, growth will come from creating more output from
less land and selling it as complex products at a higher prices
UNLIKELY YES YES
1 2 3
LAND IN OUTPUT PER VALUE ADDED
REVENUE
PRODUCTION X HECTARE X PER TONNE = & JOBS
(Hectares) (T/ha) ($/t)
50In practice, growth will require some sectors to grow much larger,
as other sectors have growth constraints
MODEL 1: EVERYTHING DOUBLES MODEL 2: SOME GROW/OTHER NO
GROWTH
+100 +100
38 100 100
7
28
18
15 28
38 38
10
7 18
18 15 5 18 15 12
10 3 10 1 8
7 5 2 2 7 5
3 2 2 3 2 2
-1 -1
A B C D E F G H I A B C D E F G H I
- Simple story: “Rising tide lifts all ships” - More complex story: “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”
- Assumes all sectors can double in the timeframe - Assumes some sectors cannot grow significantly
- Often how it is “spun” politically - Other sectors will need to grow 5x or 10x to compensate
- Unlikely in reality - Peer group regions suggest this is the likely outcome
Source: Coriolis
51Therefore there is a need to focus efforts in sectors with the
potential to grow five or ten times larger
SIMPLE GROWTH MODEL SHOWING 5X OR 10X GROWTH
100
10x
50
5x
10 10
Potential Growth Sector "A" Potential Growth Sector "B"
Source: Coriolis
52Numerous product categories have been identified that can
contribute to this growth
IDENTIFIED PRODUCT CATEGORIES THAT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO GROWTH
Model; 2019
DAIRY RED MEAT POULTRY SEAFOOD F&V
Advanced/Medical Meat-Based Snacks Further Domestic Atlantic Salmon Under Cover/Glasshouse
Infant Formula Consumption
Root Crops
Dairy-Based Target Key Processing Vegetables
Branded, Packaged
Nutritionals Consumer Case Ready Export Markets Nuts
Non-Cow Dairy Develop Value Region Suitable Apples
Added Products Aquaculture
Consumer-Ready Kiwifruit
Convenience Meals Avocados
Specialty Cheese Alternative
Poultry Species Emerging Fruit
ARABLE/GRAIN OTHER FOODS PROCESSED FOODS WINE OTHER BEVERAGES
High Dairy Baked Products Honey Nutraceuticals Sparkling Wine Alcoholic Spirits
Oat ‘Milk’ Pet Food ‘Cognac’ Water
Seeds Eggs Confectionery/Snacking Cider & Similar
Non-Marlborough Reds
Hemp (F&B usage) New & Innovative Foods Premium Non-Alcoholic
Source: Coriolis analysis
53Realising this growth opportunity requires three specific sets of
potential investors
EXISTING NEW LARGE NEW AND
LARGE FIRMS INVESTORS WITH EMERGING
AT SCALE SCALE AND SKILLS FIRMS
REINVESTMENT ATTRACTION NURTURING
- Remove barriers to investment - Identify the right investors (rather - Encourage both existing small firms
than ‘waiting for the phone to ring’) and new start-ups
- Ensure available capital is reinvested
in New Zealand (not elsewhere) - Focus on firms able to add value to - Focus effort on scaling small and
New Zealand volume medium firms into large, globally
- Sell New Zealand; make the case for competitive firms at scale (currently
investment in F&B here - Sell New Zealand; make the case for falling over here)
investment in F&B here
Source: Coriolis analysis
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