Introducing fairness and diversification in WTA and ATP tennis tournaments generation
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Introducing fairness and diversification in WTA and ATP tennis tournaments generation Federico Della Crocea,b,∗, Gabriele Dragottoa , Rosario Scatamacchiaa arXiv:1901.05387v1 [physics.soc-ph] 15 Jan 2019 a Dipartimento di Ingegneria Gestionale e della Produzione, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy, {federico.dellacroce, gabriele.dragotto, rosario.scatamacchia}@polito.it b CNR, IEIIT, Torino, Italy Abstract Single-elimination tournaments are the standard paradigm both for the main tennis professional associations. Schedules are generated by allocating first seeded and then unseeded players with seeds prevented from encounter- ing each other early in the competition. Besides, the distribution of pairings in the first round between unseeded players and seeds for a yearly season may be strongly unbalanced. This provides often a great disadvantage to some ”unlucky” unseeded players in terms of money prizes. Also, a fair distribution of matches during a season would benefit from limiting in first rounds the presence of Head-to-Head (H2H) matches between players that met in the recent past. We propose a tournament generation approach in order to reduce in the first round ”unlucky” pairings and replay of H2H matches. The approach consists in a clustering optimization problem inducing a consequent draw within each cluster. A Non-Linear Mathematical Programming (NLMP) model is proposed for the clustering problem so as to reach a fair schedule. The solution reached by a commercial NLMP solver on the model is com- pared to the one reached by a faster hybrid algorithm based on multi-start local search. The approach is successfully tested on historical records from the recent Grand Slams tournaments. Keywords: OR in Sports, Fairness, Mixed Integer Programming, Combinatorial Optimization ∗ Corresponding author.
1. Introduction Algorithms and quantitative approaches are increasingly becoming a key aspect of the sports industry as discussed, e.g., in [7]. The large number of stakeholders present in sports planning and scheduling creates favorable conditions for optimization-based approaches. In general, maximizing rev- enues and keeping sports games attractive for both media and fans are two of the most important aspects involved in scheduling sports competitions. Also, athletes are mainly concerned with their career and correspondingly are interested in having a schedule that positively affects their performances and returns. We turn our attention, here, to tennis tournaments genera- tion with a particular reference to professional tennis tournaments and the related associations, namely WTA for women and ATP for men. The vast majority of professional tennis tournaments foresees a single- elimination tournament where the loser of a match is directly eliminated from the tournament, while the winner moves on to the next round. The tournament ends when the two remaining players are opposed in the final match leading to a final winner. Given the set of participants, a draw takes place among the players in order to generate the first-round brackets graph where players are split into two subsets, seeded players - the ones with highest rankings - and unseeded ones. The first two seeded players usually have an a-priori allocated slot in the brackets graph, while the remaining seeds have a restricted set of slots in which they can be allocated. Hence, a constrained draw for seeds is made before the one for unseeded players. The seeding process ensures that the best players do not meet in the first rounds of the competition. Once the draw among seeds is established, a second draw takes places among the unseeded players in order to fill all the empty slots of the brackets graph in the first round. We consider here the allocation mechanism for unseeded players, assum- ing that seeding has already been provided. We provide a fairness-based approach in order to ensure that the generated schedule fits additional re- quirements in terms of impartiality, fairness, and minimization of matches replay between recent opponents. We focus on WTA and ATP Grand Slams, the four most prestigious tennis tournaments in professional leagues. In such tournaments, most of the top-ranking players are competing. Correspondingly, these tournaments are the most appealing for both fans and sponsors and money prizes are the highest in the season. As noted in [3, 2], the general interest in matches is directly related to the uncertainty of outcomes and competitive intensity between opponents. With respect to professional tennis tournaments, we 2
may assume that the predictability of outcomes can also be influenced - to some extent - by the number of times two opponents played against each other. The more information is available about matches of two players (eg, the so-called Head2Head or H2H index), the more accurate predictions can be given about the outcome of a match between them. On the other side, such a match can turn out to be less appealing to the public. We propose an algorithmic approach with the aim of evenly distributing the occurrence of H2H matches among different players, in order to maximize the diversification of pairings and avoid frequent match replays. There is a particular type of H2H pairing which occurs between a generic unseeded player and a seeded one. We focus on unseeded players that are paired in the first round several times in a single season with seeded players. Those players are far from being a theoretical speculation, as shown by the real data from the Grand Slam tournaments from 2013 to 2018 reported in Section 2. Actually, they are indeed economically damaged and affected by setbacks in their professional careers. Hereafter, we will refer to this subset of unseeded players according to the following definition. Definition 1. An unlucky player is an unseeded player who is paired with a seeded player in the first round of 3 or 4 Grand Slam tournaments in a season. We take also into account others parameters such as players nationality as potential elements of disparity in a schedule. Generally speaking, the cost of pairing can be extended to any other parameter of interest. Most of the literature related to optimization in tennis focuses on round- robin tournaments and has not investigated the role of fairness. The aim of the proposed approach is to create tournament schedules that avoid unlucky pairings while also minimizing a generic pairing cost function. We propose an optimization approach where we cluster players into different groups in order to minimize the mutual pairing costs inside each group. Correspond- ingly, a draw can be performed on each cluster, avoiding the presence of unlucky pairings in the first round. For the solution of the clustering phase, an Integer Quadratic Programming (IQP ) model is presented and applied to the above mentioned Grand Slam instances. For that phase we also pro- pose a two-step heuristic procedure capable of reaching good results within a very limited CPU time. The computational tests highlight how such an approach can turn into quantifiable benefits for both players and audience. Single-elimination tournaments have been deeply studied in the fields of Statistics, Combinatorial Mathematics and Operations Research. An exten- sive relatively recent literature review on scheduling in sport is provided by 3
[7] and covers a wide range of optimization approaches and sports applica- tions. In [12], the traveling tournament problem is introduced. The problem focuses on the optimal generation of round-robin tournaments that minimize the distance traveled by participating teams. The work of [4] proposes a method for allocating umpire crews in professional tennis tournaments. Re- cently, in [2], the problem of finding optimal seedings in single-elimination tournaments in order to take into account the competitive intensity and quality of every match is analyzed. In terms of fairness, most of the works are outside the optimization field. In [6] a statistical work is proposed for single-elimination tournaments, pointing out how different brackets graphs lead to diverse patterns of winners and losers. According to the paper, the tournament configuration can advantage or disadvantage contenders, there- fore creating potential cases of iniquity. In [16], it is shown that - under certain assumptions - there is always a specific tournament structure which maximizes the odds of winning for any generic player. Some concerns about how to ensure impartiality in scheduling hence arise from both the cited works. Therefore, dealing with fairness without a clear statement on the matter can turn out to be very complex. To the authors’ knowledge, there are no papers available taking into account fairness and schedule generation in single elimination tournaments. 2. Ensuring fairness and diversity The success of a tennis player is strongly related to the rank in the leagues’ leaderboards, drafted by the WTA and the ATP associations. A professional career requires among others a strong economical effort. Pro- fessional tennis associations estimated that an average player traveling to 30 tournaments with a coach has to cover costs ranging from $121.000 to $197.000. On the other side, statistically, only the players ranked in the first 100 can stand such a cost. Therefore, according to [13], being in the top 100 is not only a milestone in terms of recognition but a mandatory target for the development of a professional career. The unbalance between play- ers actually making money and players struggling to break-even is a known problem in the professional tennis world ([11]). In the last years, several prize increase calls have been made from professional players ([11], [5]) and tournaments organizers are actually boosting economical rewards ([1], [9] and [15]). Despite prizes in the four Grand Slams have been increased by a 113% in the last 10 years, most of the players outside the top 100 still struggle to cover the basic costs for their professional career ([11]). 4
Table 1: Money prizes for 2018 Grand Slams season (WTA and ATP). Adapted from [15]. Tournament 1st -round Prize 2nd -round Prize AUS $48,000 $72,000 ROL $46,800 $92,400 WIM $51,500 $96,400 US $54,000 $93,000 Average $50,075 $88,450 As shown in Table 1, winning the first-round in a Grand Slam tour- nament can significantly impact the yearly income of an emerging tennis professional. If we take into account the average estimated yearly cost for a tennis professional (provided by [13]), a single first-round prize can cover from 23% to 38% of players costs. Reaching the second round of a Grand Slam tournament can nearly be the turning point into the career of a young player. Historical data suggest that some unseeded players are paired - on first- rounds - with seeds in two or more Grand Slam tournaments in a single season. We highlight how such situations can lead to significant damages in terms of career and prizes. The evidence reported illustrates that in most re- cent seasons there is at least one player paired with a seed more than 3 times over 4 tournaments. We can compute the theoretical probability of having an unseeded player that is paired in the first round with a seeded player for two consecutive Grand Slam tournaments. For easiness of analysis, we assume that the n = 128 participants and the m = 32 seeded players are the same for the two events. Correspondingly, there are a = n − m = 96 un- seeded players. The probability, denoted as Patleast , that a draw determines at least one unlucky player paired with two seeds is given by: 96 − 32 32 (64)!2 Patleast = 1 − Pnone = 1 − = 1 − ≈ 1 − 6 · 10−8 (1) 96 96!(32)! 32 where Pnone denotes the probability of having no unlucky pairing. From Equation (1) we evince that - for Grand Slams - it is almost certain to have a player paired with seeds for two tournaments in a row. We analyzed all 5
Grand Slam tournaments for the seasons in years 2013-2018. Actually, from 56% to 61% of players participated in all four Slams for ATP, while for WTA the percentage values range between 65% and 73%. In the considered time span, there have been several unseeded players paired with a seed more than 3 times over 4 tournaments. In Table 2, statistics report unlucky players with 3 and 4 pairings with seeds (on first-rounds) and the percentage of players participating to all four Slams in the season. Despite it might not be expected to have an unseeded Table 2: Unlucky players for WTA and ATP seasons from 2013 to 2018. T T ATP Season 3/4 4/4 WTA Season 3/4 4/4 ATP 2013 6 0 61.72% WTA 2013 7 0 65.62% ATP 2014 3 1 60.94% WTA 2014 8 0 67.97% ATP 2015 3 0 63.28% WTA 2015 8 0 73.44% ATP 2016 9 1 64.84% WTA 2016 3 1 64.84% ATP 2017 5 1 56.25% WTA 2017 8 1 64.84% ATP 2018 5 2 63.28% WTA 2018 9 1 64.06% Average 5,2 0,8 61.72% Average 7,2 0,5 66.79% player paired with seeds in almost all the first-rounds of a single season, the evidence suggests that this phenomenon occurred several times in both WTA and ATP Slams. By looking at the distribution of pairings between unseeded players and seeds in Figure 1, we can easily spot the unbalance between the occurrences. In fact, a considerable amount of players have no pairings with seeds while some of them are unlucky. From Table 2, we notice that both WTA and ATP leagues often have one unlucky player with 4/4 pairings and many others with 3/4. While a strong correlation between unlucky pairings and prizes cannot be stated, the ranking positions of those players is generally negatively affected in both WTA and ATP. According to the argument provided in this Section, a more balanced distribution of pairings between seeds and unseeded players can constitute a reasonable claim. Correspondingly, the aim is to generate schedules avoiding unlucky players. 2.1. Diversity and pairing cost Having a diverse set of matches between players means avoiding - in first- rounds - frequent H2H matches that appeared in the past. We can speculate that avoiding such situations can increase the number of opponents a single 6
Figure 1: Distribution of unlucky players in the 2017 Grand Slam season for WTA and ATP. player can have in the season. Moreover, the amount of information we have about the H2H matches between two players can influence - to a certain extent - the predictability of outcomes. The extent of unpredictability can be increased by maximizing the number of matches between players that did not play together in previous tournaments. On the other side, the distribution of matches between players can be levelled, avoiding extremely frequent first rounds pairings. There are several cases in which players have been paired in the first rounds with the same opponent multiple times during a time-window of months. We report some examples of frequent first-round pairings between players from the recent Grand Slams tournaments in Table 3. Extending this analysis to different seasons points out how the frequency of such events is not rare, even considering only the four Slams. By taking into account also ATP and WTA either 1000 or 500 tournaments, there is a much larger evidence of this situation. In terms of fairness, it makes also sense to have first-round pairings be- tween players that were never opposed as well as to promote pairings that maximize a specific characteristic. In terms of audience, other parameters such as the players nationality can be taken into account in the scheduling 7
Table 3: Examples of frequent first round pairings in recent Grand Slams for both WTA and ATP. Tournament Month/Year Player A Player B League US Sept 2017 Caroline Wozniacki Mihaela Buzarnescu WTA AUS Jan 2018 Caroline Wozniacki Mihaela Buzarnescu WTA WIMB June 2017 Elena Vesnina Anna Blinkova WTA US Sept 2017 Elena Vesnina Anna Blinkova WTA AUS Jan 2017 Dudi Sela Marcel Granollers ATP WIMB June 2017 Dudi Sela Marcel Granollers ATP process (it could be worthy, for instance, to avoid first-round matches be- tween players of the same country). To this extent, we introduce the cost of pairing, so that a specific score can be attributed to each pair of players, and its value depends on the measured attributes or parameters of interest. This cost will be taken into account in the algorithmic approach described in the following section. 3. Proposed approach We consider a standard Grand Slam single-elimination tournament char- acterized by the following sets of players. The set I := {i : 1 ≤ i ≤ 128} contains all the 128 players. The subset M ∈ I has cardinality m = 32 and contains seeded players, which are preventively assigned to standard predefined entries in the brackets graph. Then, a subset U ∈ I with cardi- nality u = m = 32 contains the most unlucky players, namely the unseeded players with the largest number of first-round matches with seeded players in the previous 4 Grand Slam tournaments. Hereafter, we will denote those players as u-players. The u-players cannot be paired with seeds. In order to maintain a draw procedure, as required in the generation of the first-round brackets graph for standard tennis tournaments, we propose the following approach. We consider a clustering optimization problem, where the aim is to partition the players into k = 4 different groups so that the pairing costs of the players assigned to the same cluster are minimized. The u-players are required to be uniformly split into each cluster (u/4 = 8 players per clus- ter). Correspondingly, it will then be possible to have a draw within each cluster so that the pairing in the first round between u-players and seeds will be forbidden. Hence, the mutual costs between these players and the seeds are forced to 0. Notice that, if clusters are generated as mentioned, a consequent draw can be executed in each cluster where, first, the pairings 8
between the m/k = 8 seeds and randomly selected players among the re- maining (128 − m − v)/k = 16 players is generated and then a further draw (including this time the u-players) can be executed in order to generate the remaining pairings. The rationale of this approach is to solve the clustering problem in order to facilitate fairness and diversification by minimizing the pairing costs between the players that will undergo the draw. 3.1. The clustering problem In order to minimize the players pairing costs, a symmetric positive- defined n × n matrix H is provided in input, where the generic element hαβ ∈ H represents the pairing cost of two players α, β : α, β ∈ I. Notice that we pre-set hαβ = 0 ∀ α ∈ M, β ∈ U , so that there is a zero cost between any seed α and u-player β due to the fact that u-players will not be paired with seeds. As there are 4 clusters and each cluster will contain n/k = 32 players with m/k = 8 seeded players already predetermined, it follows that, in the clustering problem, we need to select for each cluster, (128−m)/k = 24 unseeded players including u/k = 8 u-players. The number of cluster is arbitrarily set to 4. The empirical evidence suggests that this number of clusters is suitable in order to achieve balanced outcomes while preserving a random draw inside sufficiently large clusters. 3.1.1. Integer Quadratic Programming formulation k X n−1 X X n minimize Z= ( hαβ xαj xβj ) (2) j=1 α=1 β=α+1 4 X xij = 1 ∀i ∈ I (3) j=1 n X xij = n/k ∀j ∈ J (4) i=1 X xij = u/k ∀j ∈ J (5) i∈U xij = 1 ∀i ∈ M : i is pre-assigned to j ∈ J (6) xij ∈ {0, 1} ∀i ∈ I, j ∈ J (7) The clustering problem can be stated in terms of a quadratic 0/1 Math- ematical Programming. We introduce a set of 0/1 variables xij : i ∈ I, j ∈ 9
J = {1, ..., 4} where xij = 1 if player i is assigned to cluster j, xij = 0 otherwise. Considering the pairing costs hαβ introduced above, we obtain the following integer quadratic programming formulation. The objective function (2) minimizes the sum of pairing costs of all pairs of players assigned to the same cluster. Constraints (3) require that every player must be assigned to one of the clusters, while constraints (4) require that each cluster contains exactly n/k players. Constraints (5) guarantee that each cluster contains exactly u/k u-players. Constraint (6) fulfills the requirement on the pre-assigned seeded players. Finally, constraints (7) indicate that the xij variables are binary. We remark that this problem is substantially equivalent (apart from the additional requirements on seeds and u-players and the minimization of the cost function) to the maximum diversity problem which is well known to be NP-Hard in the strong sense [8]. 3.1.2. Heuristic solution of the clustering problem Model (2)-(7) can be solved by a nowadays commercial solver such as CPLEX. At the same time, the use of a commercial solver typically requires the purchase of a license for applications outside the academic world. Also, the quadratic nature of the problem might affect the performance of a solver in providing good solutions in reasonable computational time. In the light of these aspects, we also propose a fast heuristic approach for tackling the clus- tering problem. The algorithm, denoted as A1 , is described in the following. The related pseudo-code in then provided. We can represent the problem by means of a complete graph G = (V, E), with set of vertices V corresponding to the set of players, i.e. V = I, and set of edges E where each edge ei,j has a weight equal to entry hi,j of matrix H. Correspondingly, each vertex i has associated a weight P wi equal to the weights of the edges emanating from it, namely wi = j=1,...,n∩j6=i hi,j . Hence, nodes with a large weight correspond to players with a large amount of pairing costs. In the proposed approach, we first apply a greedy procedure (steps 3-11 of the pseudo code) that it- eratively selects unseeded players one at a time in non-increasing order of weight wi . Then, the candidate clusters for that player are determined. A cluster cannot be candidate for a player if n/k players have already been assigned to that cluster. Hence, jmin is influenced by the order of the set V and by previous assignments. Likewise, as the number of u-players in each cluster is given, every time a u-player is considered, it can be assigned to a cluster only if the number of u-players already assigned to that cluster is inferior to u/k = 8. Whenever a player is selected, it is assigned to the can- didate cluster jmin that induces the least increase in the objective function 10
value. If there are two clusters inducing the same increase, the one with the smallest index is selected. This assignment is actually operated with a given probability η = 0.9. If the player is not assigned to such a cluster, a random candidate cluster j 6= jmin is selected among the remaining ones. Parameter η induces randomness in Algorithm A1 , which is also exploited within a multi-start procedure. Besides, randomness can also improve the unpredictability of the final schedule. After a first solution is found, a simple local search procedure (steps 12-17) is launched as long as a time limit Tl is not reached. Two different players α, β - respectively belonging to different clusters jα and jβ are selected. The players can be both u-pkayers or both unseeded. If swapping players α and β by assigning them respectively to cluster jβ and jα induces an improvement in the objective function (the corresponding variation is denoted as ∆Sαβ ), the swap is performed. 1 Algorithm A1 1: Input: H Matrix, I, M, U sets and time limit Tl . 2: Order elements of I by non-increasing wi 3: for all i in I\M do 4: Determine the candidate cluster jmin for player i such that 5: jmin contains less than n/k players 6: if i ∈ U then jmin contains less than u/k u-players 7: Assign i to jmin with probability η (η = 1 if there is only one candidate cluster) 8: if i is not assigned to jmin then 9: Randomly assign i to a candidate cluster j 6= jmin 10: end if 11: end for 12: while time limit Tl is not reached do 13: Pick two random players α 6= β ∈ I\M 14: if ∆Sαβ < 0 then 15: Swap: assign α to jβ and β to jα 16: end if 17: end while 4. Computational results We considered the WTA and ATP database provided by [14] and sourced from the official websites of the two leagues. Computational tests consider the 2017 season for the four Grand Slam tournaments: Australia Open 11
(AU S), Roland Garros (ROL), Wimbledon (W IM ) and Us Open (U S). In order to determine pairing costs hi,j between pairs of players (i, j), we con- sidered some features of interest discussed in previous sections, for instance by penalizing matches between players of the same country. A detailed description of the rules adopted for computing coefficients hi,j is given in Appendix. The contribution emerging from tests is twofold: on one side, we show how our approach can lead to improvements - in terms of fairness and bal- ance - compared to the official draw in selected tournaments. On the other side, the computational tests provide indications on the effectiveness of the proposed heuristic in solving the clustering problem by comparing its per- formances with the ones of solver CPLEX 12.7 launched on model (2)-(7). Computational tests were carried out on a 3,5 GHz Intel Core i7 with 16GB of RAM. Table 4 provides the results for the selected competitions indicated in column 1, comparing the actual tournament statistics to the ones obtained with our approach. For each tournament, we report 3 different series of statistics, respectively related to the actual draw (REAL), the one obtained by tackling the clustering with CPLEX (CP LEX), and the one fully generated with the heuristic (HEU ). Notice that CPLEX always reaches the optimal solution value in these instances. For heuristic HEU , the results provide an average over 100 different runs. In the second column of Table 4, we report the CPU time required to generate the solution. Column 3 provides the value of the objective function (O.F.) of model (2)-(7) related to the clustering problem. The percentage value in parenthesis highlights the improvement versus the actual draw objective function value. Column 4 provides the O.F. value of HEU and CPLEX within the heuristic time-limit THEU set to 0.8 seconds. Finally, column 5 shows the number of u-pairings (a u-pairing is pairing between a u-player and a seed) in the real tournament. It is noteworthy to point out that HEU has performances - in terms of O.F. - comparable to the ones of CPLEX, while the CPU times required by the heuristic are dramatically smaller. It can be inferred then, also by looking at percentage improvements, that the proposed approach would induce strongly reduced pairing costs among the players belonging to the same cluster, thus inducing a draw that can be performed by denying u- pairings, such that a much more balanced tournament would be created. Since we require to have at most u/k = 8 u-players per cluster (see Equation (5) and Section 3.1.2), the provided clustering solutions would always admit such a constrained draw. 12
Table 4: Computational results for 2017 season of Grand Slams Time O.F. Value O.F. T = THEU u-pairings WTA-AUS 2017 REAL - 565.00 - 14.00 CPLEX 111.36 251.50 (55.49) 366.50 - HEU 0.76 267.50 (52.65) 267.50 - WTA-ROL 2017 REAL - 522.00 - 15.00 CPLEX 106.94 229.00 (56.13) 433.00 - HEU 0.75 237.00 (54.60) 237.00 - WTA-WIM 2017 REAL - 474.00 - 15.00 CPLEX 2.58 176.00 (62.87) 436.00 - HEU 0.75 193.00 (59.28) 193.00 - WTA-US 2017 REAL - 693.00 - 15.00 CPLEX 600.58 378.00 (45.45) 652.50 - HEU 0.76 386.00 (44.30) 386.00 - ATP-AUS 2017 REAL - 377.50 - 8.00 CPLEX 1.44 151.50 (59.87) 206.50 - HEU 0.75 162.50 (56.95) 162.50 - ATP-ROL 2017 REAL - 386.50 - 16.00 CPLEX 2.77 208.50 (46.05) 413.50 - HEU 0.75 221.50 (42.69) 221.50 - ATP-WIM 2017 REAL - 302.50 - 16.00 CPLEX 0.69 128.50 (57.52) 128.50 - HEU 0.76 137.50 (54.55) 137.50 - ATP-US 2017 REAL - 466.00 - 12.00 CPLEX 2.33 190.00 (59.23) 403.00 - HEU 0.77 192.00 (58.80) 192.00 - 13
5. Conclusions The approach proposed in this work is the first one integrating concepts of fairness and balance - typically studied in other disciplines - with a combi- natorial approach typical of OR. This cross-fertilization between disciplines led to an approach capable to actually implement a concept of fairness in terms of sports scheduling. The initial driver of this work concerns the presence of unbalance in professional tennis competitions draws generation. As shown both by theoretical results and practical evidence, the need of better approaches is quite evident and Operations Research can positively contribute to their development. Indeed, the data reported from literature and media suggest that purely random draws and prize increases are not enough to cope with the growing financial disparity in tennis. With this contribution, we aim at providing a practical way for measuring and im- proving diversity and fairness in tennis tournaments. In addition to this, we provided a quick heuristic procedure for the clustering problem which allows us to reach high quality results in instant time without resorting to mathematical programming solvers. References References [1] Bairner, R. [2018], ‘Wimbledon announces 7.5% prize fund increase’. URL: http://www.wtatennis.com/news/wimbledon-announces-75- prize-fund-increase [2] Dagaev, D. and Suzdaltsev, A. [2018], ‘Competitive intensity and qual- ity maximizing seedings in knock-out tournaments’, Journal of Combi- natorial Optimization 35(1), 170–188. [3] David, F. and Robert, S. [2002], ‘Outcome uncertainty and attendance demand in sport: the case of english soccer’, Journal of the Royal Sta- tistical Society: Series D (The Statistician) 51(2), 229–241. [4] Farmer, A., Smith, J. S. and Miller, L. T. [2007], ‘Scheduling umpire crews for professional tennis tournaments’, Interfaces 37(2), 187–196. [5] Gatto, L. [2018], ‘Roger federer thinks prize money should be increased in tennis’. 14
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Appendix Costs of pairings The pairing costs were determined as follows. First of all, we considered all pairs of players α, β ∈ I, such that α ∈ V and β ∈ M and set hα,β = 0. Similarly, we set hα,β = 0 if α, β ∈ I and α or β is a qualified player (in Grand Slam tournaments the main draw foresees the presence of several - approx 5 - players selected from a qualifying round that is not yet finished at the time of the draw). For the remaining pairs, given two players α, β, the cost hα,β is initially set to 0. Then, the following set of rules for increasing the value hα,β based on the results of the previous four Grand Slam tournaments is applied. Those rules constitute just a viable option for determining the hα,β coefficients, but different options could be clearly considered. Rule 1. If two players α, β ∈ I played against each other in a 1st round in the last 4 tournaments, then hα,β + = 5;. Rule 2. If two players α, β ∈ I are from the same country, then hα,β + = 5;. Rule 3. If two players α, β ∈ I played against each other in a 2nd round in the last 4 tournaments, then hα,β + = 2;. Rule 4. If two players α, β ∈ I played against each other in a 3rd round in the last 4 tournaments, then hα,β + = 1;. Rule 5. If two players α, β ∈ I played against each other either in quarter- final or semi-final rounds in the last 4 tournaments, then hα,β + = 0.5;. sub:code The full code and data is available online on gitHub in the Tournament Allocation Problem repository. It can be accessed at the address: https://github.com/ALCO-PoliTO/TournamentAllocationProblem 17
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