Insurance Webinar Series: 2022 Insurance Industry Trends - 1pm | 29 September 2021 - Deloitte
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Agenda • Market Stats & Trends Ger Power | Senior Manager | Deloitte Ireland • Sustainability Greg Lowe | Director of Sustainable Finance | Deloitte UK Marc Aboud | Director | Deloitte Ireland • Differential Pricing, Business Continuity, and Future Considerations Derville Rowland | Director General, Financial Conduct | Central Bank of Ireland • Q&A Moderated by Donal Lehane | Partner| Deloitte Ireland
Irish Non Life Insurance Market Data Sources • CBI Insurance Statistics • Central Statistics Office (CSO) • Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport • Road Safety Authority • Solvency and Financial Condition Reports • Insurance Ireland Factfiles • Personal Injuries Assessment Board • An Garda Síochána • Government of Ireland (Gov.ie) • Transport Infrastructure Ireland 4
Irish Non Life Insurance Market Milestones Jun Oct Nov Jan Mar July Sep 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 Judicial Severe Covid- Council vote CBI Review of NCID – Private in favour of Differential Pricing 11th and final progress 19 restrictions Motor Insurance new Personal – Final Report update – Cost of reimposed Report 2 Injuries Insurance Working January 2021 Group Guidelines NCID – EL, PL and Commercial Property Report 1 5
Irish Non-Life Market
Irish Non-Life Market Gross Written Premium 2019 Market Share by GWP 4,000 + 8% + 2% + 4% 100% AXA 3,500 + 14% AXA AXA Allianz 3,000 + 8% AXA - 6% + 3% 80% Allianz Aviva Allianz 2,500 GWP (€m) Allianz Aviva 2,000 60% Aviva Other Aviva Other 1,500 Other 1,000 40% RSA RSA RSA RSA FBD FBD FBD 500 FBD 20% Zurich Zurich Zurich 0 AIG Zurich AIG 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* AIG AIG Liberty Liberty Motor Property Liability PA/Travel Other Classes 0% Liberty Source: Insurance Ireland Motor Property Liability Total Source: Insurance Ireland Historical Market Share Commentary 20.00% 18.00% • Market volumes have been increasing and grew again to over €3.7bn in AXA 2019 (+4% compared to 2018, and +44% compared to 2013). 16.00% Allianz • When figures are available, volumes are expected to remain broadly stable 14.00% Aviva in 2020. 12.00% Other • Motor continues to be the largest line of business while PA/Travel is the 10.00% smallest. RSA 8.00% FBD • AXA has consolidated its share of the overall non-life market at 18% of 6.00% GWP. Zurich 4.00% • RSA, and to a lessor extent, FBD have reduced market share over the AIG 2.00% period. Liberty 0.00% • AIG, FBD, Zurich and Allianz have a higher share of the Liability market than 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 the Motor market. 7
Irish Non-Life Market– Key Trends 140% Historical Net Combined Operating Ratios Commentary 116% 118% 120% 108% 111% • There has been an clear improvement in the Net COR since 2015 and the 107%107% 102% 102% 17% 95% 24% 96% 93% underwriting cycle is clearly visible. 100% 19% 23% 92% 19% 10% 24% 22% 18% • Over the last 11 years to 2019 only 4 years produced underwriting profit. 21% 11% 22% 11% 11% 19% 21% 80% 9% 12% 13% 8% • Based on 2020 SFCRs, 2020 is also expected to be profitable. 11% 6% 8% 7% 60% • 5 of 8 companies have been profitable in 2020 based on SFCRs 89% • Group reinsurance structures skew some results 40% 78% 77% 83% 76% 74% 71% 72% 68% 63% 65% 64% 20% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Claims Ratio Commission Ratio Management Expense Ratio Source: 2013 Prior: CBI Insurance Statistics, 2014-2019 Insurance Ireland Fact file Source: Insurance Ireland * 2020 is a market estimate Expense Ratio 2020 Net Combined Operating Ratios 2020 v 2019 Net Combined Operating Ratios vs GWP Claims Ratio 2020 2019 140% 117% 103% 130% AIG RSA 100% 98% RSA 94% 92% 91% 120% 84% Liberty 32% 55% 36% 110% FBD Allianz 40% Net COR 38% 39% 37% FBD Aviva 52% 33% 100% AXA Zurich 90% Aviva Allianz Zurich 64% 70% 62% 80% Liberty 46% 57% 51% 56% 53% 55% AXA 70% 6% 60% AIG Market 50% Average* 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Source: 2020 SFCRs Combined Operating Ratio = Claims Ratio + Expense Ratio 8 GWP
Irish Motor Market
Irish Motor Market – Key Trends 35% Market Share by Gross Written Premium Historical Net Combined Operating Ratios 140% 129% 121% 30% 120% 110%110% 100% 103% 107% 23% 104% AXA 98% 20% 97% 8% 89% 100% 17% 19% 21% 7% 25% Aviva 20% 6% 23% 17% 88% 7% 21% 21% 5% Allianz 80% 5% 8% 8% 19% 21% 7% 4% 6% 4% 20% Liberty 60% 94% 99% 87% RSA 40% 75% 84% 72% 78% 82% 72% 69% 15% 64% 63% FBD 20% 10% Zurich 0% AIG 5% Other Claims Ratio Commission Ratio Management Expense Ratio 0% Source: 2012-2019 Insurance Ireland Factfile, Government of Ireland 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 * 2020 is an estimate Source: Insurance Ireland Net Combined Operating Ratios 2017 - 2020 200% Commentary Expense Ratio 175% 180% Claims Ratio • AXA have increased market share from 19.8% to 28.6% since 2012. 160% • Allianz have also increased considerably from 6.8% to 11.9%. 137% 140% 125% 81% • RSA has decreased from 15.6% to 10.4% from 2013 to 2019. 120% 99% 99% 99% 100% 98% 89% • Zurich and AIG have the smallest market shares with 7.2% and 5.6% 36% 94% 100% 85%85% 91% 86% 83% 91% 84% 9% 89% 89% respectively. 82% 80% 30% 74% 80% 35% 29% 28% 68% 33% 33%29% • Net COR remained stable on average in 2020 at 89%. 24% 31% 25% 37% 36% 22% 44% 33% 60% 29% 31% 108% 89% 90%94% 40% 69% 64% 65%61%60% 61% 58%62%55% 58%63% 52% 52% 53% 49% 20% 41% 45% 37% 0% Average Source: SFCRs 10
Irish Motor Market – Key Trends New Car Registrations and GWP 1,800 Average Premium by Cover Type New Cars Imports GWP Private vehicles GWP Commercial vehicles 250,000 1600 1,600 1400 1,400 200,000 1200 1,200 881 883 No. Vehicles 852 1000 1,000 GWP (€) 150,000 781 800 800 570 581 546 624 498 488 526 100,000 600 600 499 676 400 400 50,000 652 673 644 566 481 491 479 449 471 200 200 424 431 - 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: 2012-2019 Insurance Ireland Factfile, Government of Ireland Source: NCID Comprehensive Third Party ALL *2021 values are YTD Average Claim Cost per Policy vs GEP Per Policy Road Fatalities €800 500 19500 676 450 19000 €700 400 €600 18500 350 Kms travelled €500 300 18000 13% €400 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 250 17500 Fatalities 12% 10% 11% 10% €300 21% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 12% 12% 200 17000 20% 16% 150 €200 16500 59% 67% 71% 71% 72% 72% 75% 76% 74% 74% 100 €100 61% 16000 50 €0 0 15500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 *2021 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Third Party Injury Accidental Damage Fire and Theft 11 Third Party Damage Windscreen Average GEP Road fatalities Average km travelled per vehicle Source: NCID
Irish Motor Market – Claim Trends Claim Frequency by Claim Type Claim Severity by Claim Type 20% €50,000 6,000 18% €45,000 5,500 16% €40,000 14% 5,000 €35,000 4,487 12% 4,500 €30,000 10% €25,000 4,000 8% €20,000 3,500 6% 4% €15,000 2,726 3,000 2% €10,000 €5,000 2,500 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 €0 2,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Third Party Injury Accidental Damage Fire and Theft Third Party Damage Windscreen Overall Third Party Injury Damage Overall Average Average cost per injury claim based on settlement channel Injuries Board - Average Motor Award 90,000 Compensation Legal Other €24,000 80,000 2% 0% €23,327 2% €23,500 €23,234 70,000 3% 3% 32% €23,000 €22,454 €22,682 60,000 33% 34% 33% 33% €22,500 €21,707 €21,844 €22,186 50,000 €22,000 €21,730 €21,470 40,000 €21,500 €20,898 €21,215 30,000 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% €20,631 2% 3% 66% 4% 65% 4% 66% €21,000 2% €20,438 20,000 3% 64% 3% 64% 4% 4% 4% 8% 9% 10% 11% €20,500 8% 94% 93% 93% 93% 10,000 94% 89% 89% 87% 87% 85% €20,000 0 €19,500 Litigated Litigated Litigated Litigated Litigated Direct Direct Direct Direct PIAB Direct PIAB PIAB PIAB PIAB €19,000 €18,500 12 Source: NCID 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Effect of Covid 19 on Irish Motor Market Private Car Usage - Red Cow Junction M50 LGV / HGV Usage - Red Cow Junction M50 150k 40k 30k 100k 20k 50k Phase 3 10k Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 2 Schools Close Schools Close Phase 1 Phase 1 Full Lockdown Full Lockdown 0k 0k Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July August Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July August 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 250,000 Annual private vehicle sales Commentary Private Car Usage 200,000 • There was a 78% drop-off in private car usage at the trough in 2020 (one week into full lockdown) • Recovery has coincided with the phased reopening of the economy in late 2020, 150,000 however dipped at the turn of 2021 with the reimposition of restrictions. • At end-August 2021, private car usage at the M50 in Dublin is still 2% lower 100,000 than the equivalent time period in 2019. Commercial LGV/HGV Usage • The drop-off bottomed out at 59% lower than the equivalent period in 2019. 50,000 • Recovery in commercial LGV/HGV usage was much faster, reaching comparable levels to previous years in mid June. 0 • As at July, activity is 6% lower than the equivalent period in 2019. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Note: these are Dublin-only statistics, and mobility data published by Google and 13 Source: CSO *Data for 2021 is inclusive up to July Apple indicate that usage in rural counties rebounded at a faster rate.
Irish Property and Liability Market
Irish Property Market – Key Trends Market Share by Gross Written Premium Historical Net Combined Operating Ratios 20% Claims Ratio Commission Ratio Management Expense Ratio 18% 137% Allianz 131% 16% Aviva 18% 116% 14% 19% 109% 17% Zurich 16% 19% 95% 91% 97% 94% 12% 89% 85% 86% 30% 84% RSA 17% 20% 23% 10% 26% 27% FBD 17% 23% 26% 20% 21% 18% 8% Other 18% 20% 14% 11% 13% 12% 102% 15% 95% 6% AXA 80% 57% 62% 53% 4% AIG 47% 53% 47% 52% 52% 53% 2% Liberty 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 *2020 Source: 2012-2019 Insurance Ireland Factfile, Government of Ireland 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Insurance Ireland * 2020 are market estimates Net Combined Operating Ratios 2017 - 2020 Commentary 250% Expense Ratio Claims Ratio 199% • The market has been relatively stable in terms of market share. 200% • Allianz has the largest market share, closely rivalled by Aviva. 36% • RSA has noticeably decreased its market share from 20.8% (largest 150% 122% market player in 2012) to 13% in 2019. 125% • Liberty and FBD have also decreased their market share since 2014. 99% 102% 97% 96% 98% 98% 36%90% 100% 85%85% 82% 91% 83% 82% 89% 35% • Liberty and IG have the smallest market shares at around 3.5% each. 77% 78% 28% 30% 69%65%163% 33% 24% 34% 33% 25% 42% 41% 51% • Even considering major events in recent years (Emma, Ophelia) the 39% 35% 36% 44% 36% 30% 34% Market has been profitable 8 times in last 10 years. 2020 may be loss 50% 30% 70% 69% 89% 65% 87% making as a result of Covid-19 exposures on commercial property 61% 57%63% 58% 46%41% 47% 39%35% 48%46% 57% 51% 44%44% policies. 0% 0% Average Source: SFCRs 15
Irish Liability Market – Key Trends Market Share by Gross Written Premium Historical Net Combined Operating Ratios 35% Claims Ratio Commission Ratio Management Expense Ratio 149% 30% 143% Other 127% 26% 124% 26% 25% Allianz 112% 115% 114% 11% 105% 16% 104% 23% AIG 15% 9% 17% 90% 20% 21% 20% 17% 88% Aviva 13% 20% 9% 8% 7% FBD 71% 10% 21% 11% 22% 15% Zurich 16% 11% 11% 112% 102% 102% 10% RSA 11% 87% 89% 85% 86% 77% 75% AXA 58% 54% 43% 5% Liberty 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 *2020 Source: 2012-2019 Insurance Ireland Factfile, Government of Ireland 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Insurance Ireland * 2020 GWP are market estimates Net Combined Operating Ratios 2017 - 2020 200% Commentary Expense Ratio 176% 180% Claims Ratio • Market is dominated by IPB rather than one of the 8 main players. 160% 39% • Allianz has the largest market share of named companies at 15.6%. 140% 129% 123% 125% 115% 117% 124% • AXA, RSA, Zurich, FBD, AIG and Liberty have all experienced a decrease 120% 104% 109% 106% 110% in market share since 2016. 99% 91% 95% 31% 36% 40% 92% 100% 85% 86% 83%29%81% 85% 37% • FBD has been consistently decreasing market share since 2012 35% 72% 57% 40% 30% 80% 46% 40% 66% • In the last ten years, the market has only been profitable twice, last in 24% 25% 37% 38% 137% 60% 43% 30% 2011, however the SFCR data for named participants indicates that 92% 31% 89%79% performance may have improved during 2020. 40% 69% 74% 77% 80% 85% 69% 61%58% 56% 58% 50% 58%57% 55% 53% • Liberty/RSA results are skewed by the impact of reinsurance. 20% 43% 35% 0% 5% 0% Average Source: SFCRs 16 Source: SFCRs – Liberty excluded from average
Sustainability Greg Lowe | Director of Sustainable Finance | Deloitte UK Marc Aboud| Director | Deloitte Ireland
The evolving insurance climate landscape Through the pursuit of net zero strategies, a more connected climate landscape is evolving – one which is demanding nature-based solutions and second-order social impacts be integrated into firms’ climate strategies Regulatory advances and feedback loops on climate change Collaboration, levelling-up and expanding outlooks on climate The advance of regulatory developments, to both help insurers think about, and The next year will be crucial in understanding the full range of climate risks insurers understand new risks, continues to develop and will continue to be a priority for face and to focus on where the gaps might be. Insurers should be thinking about the regulators and the insurance industry. These are early days for this type of regulation role they play in the wider financial system as well, given that banks are subject to and reporting, so new learnings will continue to inform both how regulators respond stress testing also, and starting to consider the role risk transfer capital plays. Industry and how these regulations impact potential strategy. The response of the Bank of collaboration will be crucial to navigate the years ahead – the industry needs to think England’s PRA to the CBES in the UK should be carefully watched as it will show outwards, through collaborative iniatives such as ClimateWise. where the regulator sees potential strengths and weaknesses. Net zero strategies begin to permeate the entirety of insurers Emerging systematic environmental risks and climate overlaps Behind all of this, we now have over two thirds of the global economy committed to As insurers continue their TCFD exercises, focus should be on the strategic insights some kind of net-zero goal – insurers that haven’t considered transition risk when the process gives you, rather than the reporting itself, which will become a planning investment in future lines of business need to do so now, or likely fail. requirement across much of the world in coming years. Insurers should seize the A growing number of insurers are starting to align to their own net-zero targets, often opportunities the energy transition and resilience brings to business. Further, there from an operations or investment angle, but the Net Zero Insurance Alliance are other systemic environmental risks lapping at our shores – biodiversity and demonstrates this is beginning to permeate the entirety of an insurer. natural capital have significant overlap with climate risk and are getting the same kind of attention climate change was getting several years ago. © 2021 Deloitte Ireland LLP. All rights reserved. 18
The evolving insurance climate landscape Through the pursuit of net zero strategies, a more connected climate landscape is evolving – one which is demanding nature-based solutions and second-order social impacts be integrated into firms’ climate strategies Nature-based focus – role in net zero and adaptation Just transition strategies - connection of ESG ‘S’ with net zero Following the Das Gupta Review, firms are increasingly seeking to value and assess The pursuit of net zero generates new social equity challenges as it potentially impacts and dependencies on nature. Emerging standards exist to support with this expands the existing and creates new protection gaps. This leads to new protection valuation (e.g. Partnership for Biodiversity Accounting Financials (PBAF) - this opportunities, for example around income protection, in relation to job losses as requires updates to measurement, risk assessment and forecasting processes, in line industries transition. Emergent financing alliances are committing through net zero with emerging reporting developments from the Taskforce for Nature-related strategies to the pursuit of a ‘just’ transition. Place-based financing considerations are Financial Disclosures. emergent as a framework for examining impact. A just transition seeks to ensure that the substantial benefits of a green economy transition are shared widely, while also supporting those who stand to lose economically – be they countries, regions, industries, communities, workers or consumers. Increased quantitative focus Building back better post-COVID As the need for quantitative reporting evolves, insurers are seeking to understand The Covid-19 pandemic has shone a light on the role of the industry and how and when standardised metrics will be introduced across the industry and what opportunities for building back better. Either through due diligence through that will mean for reporting. Interest is growing on how might the ClimateWise underwriting and investment decision-making, or through the opportunities to Principles, Guidance and member reporting process similarly develop, and if there a leverage sustainable claims and build adaptative and mitigative capacity. role for expected KPIs or data sheets. © 2021 Deloitte Ireland LLP. All rights reserved. 19
Establishing an ESG Journey ESG best practice is a series of steps ESG integration Innovation can be Strategy catalysed by adjusting or expanding the product offering. Define and bring the sustainability strategy Counterparty Frameworks to life. engagement can help reframe business models. Integrate ESG issues Identify which and consider steering Embedding ESG into Governance frameworks are best portfolios. operations can enable a suited for the business. more resilient business Climate scenario Develop new risk structures This can help determine analysis can actively Capital can be – or build on existing ones – KPIs, metrics and support risk mitigation reallocated to drive to equip the organization objectives. planning. greater impact. with ESG oversight. © 2021 Deloitte Ireland LLP. All rights reserved. 20
ESG regulatory requirements Set out below is a summary of the key EU and UK sustainable reporting requirements. There may be additional local reporting requirements and a number of voluntary reporting frameworks that firms can sign up to What is it? Status • A common classification of economic • Jan 2022 - the Delegated Act on the first two objectives activities significantly contributing to six are expected to apply (remaining 4 expected Jan 2023) EU Sustainable Finance environmental objectives, using science- Taxonomy Regulation based criteria • Jan 2022 - EU to publish a report on the taxonomy and social/non-green issues • SFDR imposes mandatory ESG disclosure • Jan 2022 - Periodic reporting and taxonomy alignment Sustainable Finance obligations for asset managers and other disclosures (for environmental objectives) to begin for Art 8 & financial markets participants 9 Products that promote a sustainable investment objective. Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) EU • July 2022 (originally Jan 2022) – SFDR “RTS” on more detailed • March 2021 - Level 1 principle based Level 2 requirements for pre contractual and periodic disclosures required reporting including Principal Adverse Impact (PAI) Reporting • Reporting by large and listed companies on Non-financial Reporting • Mid 2022 - CSRD reporting standards become available their sustainability risks and impacts Directive (NFRD)/ • Jan 2023 - Firms apply CSRD standards for the first time {NEW} Corporate Sustainability • All listed companies or large companies to reports published in 2024. Reporting through annual Reporting Directive (CSRD) that exceed 2/3 of the following: 1) BS report, digitisation, mandatory limited assurance €20M, 2) Rev €40M 3) 250 staff • Banks, buildings societies, insurance • Jan 2022 - The PRA will review the quality of banks and UK PRA disclosure requirements companies and FCA premium listed insurers' 2021 TCFD disclosures. The PRA will review aligned towards Task Force for Climate disclosures after this deadline and determine whether © 2021 Deloitte Ireland LLP. All rights reserved. Related Disclosures (TCFD) additional measures are required. 21
Overview of key supervisory expectations for insurers As we approach COP26, we expect heightened focus by all stakeholders on the credibility of firms’ net zero plans. Climate risk, ESG disclosures, “greenwashing”, and ESG data will also remain key priorities for firms Strategy and business Risk identification model and risk appetite Capital modelling and stress testing Asset transition risk Governance and culture Conduct risk © 2021 Deloitte Ireland LLP. All rights reserved. 22
Differential Pricing, Business Continuity, and Future Considerations Derville Rowland | Director General, Financial Conduct | Central Bank of Ireland
24 Our mandate is to Have sufficient financial resources including under deliver effective and Have established robust plausible but severe stresses, governance and risk are resilient, and can be purposeful supervision resolved effectively in the management frameworks that safeguards the event of financial distress interests of policyholders and That are proactively supports a robust developing their business Behave well and have insurance sector with consumer centric cultures models in order to operate effectively in the future firms that: insurance landscape Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED
25 Differential Pricing - Our proposals Ban the practice of price walking in private motor and home insurance Require providers to review their pricing policies and processes annually - to ensure that insurance providers maintain focus on their pricing practices and the impact of such practices on their customers Introduce new consumer consent and disclosure requirements to ensure the automatic renewal process is more transparent for all personal non-life insurance products. Public consultation on our proposals open until 22 October Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED
26 Business Interruption Insurance System wide Supervisory Claims examination Engagement oversight Development of BI •Identified 31,000 •Over €130 million policies responsive to paid on 4,371 policies Insurance BI to date Supervisory •Firms expected to •Continued monitoring Framework firms identify and to ensure insurers Analysis of 200 contact all potentially continue to meet their different policy types affected obligations on all across 27 insurers policyholders claims Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED
27 Looking ahead Digitisation Climate Change European developments Individual Accountability Framework Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED
Q&A Moderated by Donal Lehane| Partner | Deloitte Ireland Please put your questions in the Question Box on the panel
Insurance Webinar Series: 2022 Insurance Industry Trends Thank you for attending
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