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Initial margin Special report 2020 - Risk.net
Initial margin
     Special report 2020                  Risk.net

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Risk_IM20_OFC.indd 99                        23/06/2020 15:44
Initial margin Special report 2020 - Risk.net
Opinion                                                                                                                                           Opinion

                                                                                      Volatility and extra time
                                                                                      A double-edged sword
                                                                                      A       mid Covid-19 lockdowns, sports fans have been finding alternative ways to
                                                                                              satisfy their craving for competition, whether virtual horse racing driven by data
                                                                                      algorithms, repeat broadcasts of Olympic nostalgia or the opportunity for football
                                                                                      supporters to have their cardboard cutout images grace stadium terraces across
                                                  Helen Bartholomew
                                             Editor-at-large, Risk.net
                                                                                      Europe, where remaining matches will be played out behind closed doors.
                               helen.bartholomew@infopro-digital.com                      Similarly, buy-side firms in advanced preparations for phases five and six of initial
                                                                                      margin (IM) rules are eager to maintain momentum and put those efforts to the test
                                                      Joanna Edwards
                                 Senior Director, Marketing Solutions                 now that implementation has been delayed by 12 months following disruptions
                                  joanna.edwards@infopro-digital.com                  related to the Covid-19 pandemic.
                                                            Stuart Willes
                                                                                          One option is a virtual run of IM processes from the original deadline of September
                                         Commercial Editorial Manager                 this year. AcadiaSoft plans to facilitate such demand with a soft launch of services on
                                        stuart.willes@infopro-digital.com
                                                                                      September 1, allowing phase five firms to run IM calculation and reconciliation
                          Alex Hurrell, Senior Commercial Subeditor                   virtually, before critical documentation such as credit support annexes and account
                                      alex.hurrell@infopro-digital.com                control agreements are even in place. This kind of simulation could provide crucial
                                 Antony Chambers, Publisher, Risk.net                 insight into changing collateral requirements, which skyrocketed amid recent volatility.
                                  antony.chambers@infopro-digital.com                     Total margin call amounts on over-the-counter derivatives more than trebled in
                                                       Philip Harding
                                                                                      March to $5.56 trillion, according to AcadiaSoft data, forcing firms without large
                               Head of Content, Marketing Solutions                   liquidity pools to source additional collateral from the market just to scrape over the
                                   philip.harding@infopro-digital.com
                                                                                      line. Many phase five and six firms are worried those pain points will be magnified
                                               Robert Alexander, Sales                once new IM call and funding requirements are added to the mix.
                                  robert.alexander@infopro-digital.com                    “Volatility has exposed any existing weaknesses in collateral systems, processes
                            David Pagliaro, Group Managing Director                   and organisational setup,” says Chris Watts, director and co-founder of Margin
                                   david.pagliaro@infopro-digital.com                 Tonic. “Ongoing volatility is now a more realistic prospect and those phase five and
                              Ben Wood, Managing Director, Risk.net
                                                                                      six firms burned by the recent volatility are now either looking – or should be
                                      ben.wood@infopro-digital.com                    looking – at the additional year they’ve been given and thinking how they can
                         Ryan Griffiths, Senior Production Executive
                                                                                      leverage their IM delivery to future-proof their collateral infrastructure.”
                                     ryan.griffiths@infopro-digital.com                   He hopes the combination of extra time and increased volatility will drive a more
                                                                                      strategic long-term view of margin strategy at buy-side firms, rather than the band-aid
                                                      Infopro Digital (UK)
                                                         133 Houndsditch              fixes many were relying on simply to drag themselves over the compliance finish line.
                                                        London EC3A 7BX                   For a large portion of the estimated 900 firms set to be caught in phases five and
                                               Tel: +44 (0)20 7316 9000
                                                                                      six of the IM regime, the latest postponement is a welcome reprieve. But for some
                                                     Infopro Digital (US)             it’s a growing frustration (see page 8).
                                             55 Broad Street, 22nd Floor
                                              New York, NY 10004-2501
                                                                                          Some dealers decry what they see as excessive delays, saying it’s ‘business as
                                                  Tel: +1 646 736 1888                usual’, despite widespread remote working. “The vast majority are repapering, some
                                                                                      full-steam ahead, some taking their time,” says a margin official at a European house.
                                           Infopro Digital (Asia-Pacific)
                                        Unit 1704-05, Berkshire House                     Implementation has suffered multiple setbacks, with an additional sixth wave
                                      Taikoo Place, 25 Westlands Road                 added to the planned five-phase schedule and a further 12-month extension for the
                                                 Hong Kong, SAR China
                                                   Tel: +852 3411 488                 final two phases – double the six-month delay some felt was sufficient for phase
                                                                                      five only. An influential Commodity Futures Trading Commission committee is now
                                                              Cover image
                                                   Easyturn/hh5800/Getty
                                                                                      pushing for a further six-month compliance grace period (see page 3). This means
                                                                                      phase six firms with aggregate average notional amounts of derivatives between
                                                      Published by Infopro Digital
                                          © Infopro Digital Risk (IP) Limited, 2020
                                                                                      €8 billion and €50 billion might not be caught in the net until March 2023 – two and
                                                                                      a half years beyond the original timeline many had been working towards.
                                                                                          “If firms were looking at this in early 2019 and are now looking at possible 2023
                                                                                      implementation, they could have had a project going for four or five years. It sounds
                                                                                      crazy they could have invested that amount of time, resource and budget to meet
                                                                                      those regulations,” says a margin expert. “People understand why phase five was
                            All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be
                     reproduced, stored in or introduced into any retrieval system,
                                                                                      split and no one could have seen Covid coming, but another six months on top? It
                          or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,    feels unnecessary.”
                       mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without                                                                           Helen Bartholomew
                      the prior written permission of the copyright owners. Risk is
                                registered as a trade mark at the US Patent Office                                                                     Editor-at-large, Risk.net

                                                                                                                                                               risk.net            1

Risk_IM20_Intro.indd 1                                                                                                                                                         23/06/2020 16:34
Initial margin Special report 2020 - Risk.net
Contents                                                                                                                                         Contents

               6                                                      17                                                 4

              Features
             3                                                       14
             Margin regulation                                       Cross-border trading
             Advisory body backs                                     Cross-border trading could
             six-month IM ‘grace period’                             suffer under IM rules
             by Rebekah Tunstead                                     by Robert Mackenzie Smith
             A majority of the CFTC’s GMAC members vote to           Conflicting US and EU cash reinvestment
             recommend an extra six-month extension for phases       rules may force buy side to post bonds
             five and six of IM rules for non-cleared derivatives
                                                                     15
             6                                                       Regional focus: Singapore
             Margin data                                             Singapore’s IM delay poses
             A common data standard –                                disadvantages for DBS Bank
             The side benefits of Simm                               by Blake Evans-Pritchard
             by Luke Clancy and Helen Bartholomew                    UOB and OCBC enjoy another year of
             Buy-side firms using AcadiaSoft for standard            pricing flexibility at the expense of DBS Bank
             IM model calculations must adopt the ORE XML
             data format, a potentially cumbersome exercise          16                                                  12
                                                                     Regional focus: India
             8                                                       India prepares margin regime as
             AANA calculation                                        parliament debates netting law
             IM calculation window                                   by Chris Davis
             delay leaves some exasperated                           India’s lawmakers thrash out bill to allow state-
             by Rebekah Tunstead                                     owned banks to apply close-out netting for
             The ‘hasty’ decision by global rule-makers to delay     derivatives, with margin rules likely to follow
             the threshold calculation period for the non-cleared    in the first half of the year
             margin rules phase five is frustrating for firms that
             had already started IM preparation                      17
                                                                     IM thresholds
             10                                                      Get out of jail free? –                             Sponsored Q&A
             Q&A                                                     Margin exchange threshold relief
             Pandemic volatility – How it is                         by Helen Bartholomew                                4 LCH
             affecting collateral management                         ‘Game-changing’ IM exchange threshold               Strategic preparation –
             Ed Corral, J.P. Morgan, explores the impact of          relief may not be the phase five free pass          The impact of the UMR
             the delay to UMR phases five and six, and how           it first appears                                    phase five delay
             this will play out alongside the delay to the                                                               Bruce Kellaway, global head of rates, securities
             aggregate average notional amount                       20                                                  and collateral at LCH, discusses the most likely
                                                                     Cleared margin                                      instruments to be pushed into the cleared world
             12                                                      CCPs failing to set                                 as a result of phase five implementation, the
             Margin models                                           effective margin limits                             tactics firms use to drive efficiency in exchange
             Covid-19 rout raises concerns about Simm                by Alexander Campbell                               threshold monitoring and how firms’ approaches
             by Helen Bartholomew                                    Central counterparties must strike a                to collateral management are likely to change in
             Annual recalibration means March volatility             balance between countercyclicality                  the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic
             will not be reflected in margin until end-2021          and sensitivity to risk

         2                  Initial margin Special report 2020

Risk_IM20_Contents.indd 2                                                                                                                                                    23/06/2020 16:45
Initial margin Special report 2020 - Risk.net
Margin regulation

                   Advisory body backs
                   six-month IM ‘grace period’
                     A majority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Global Markets Advisory Committee members vote to recommend an
                     extra six-month extension for phases five and six of IM rules for non-cleared derivatives. By Rebekah Tunstead

                   A      n influential US steering group has voted to
                          back a six-month “grace period” for the final
                   two phases of IM rules for non-cleared derivatives.
                                                                              On April 3, the Basel Committee on Banking
                                                                           Supervision and the International Organization
                                                                           of Securities Commissions (Iosco) announced a
                                                                                                                                      calculate AANA not only under US margin rules
                                                                                                                                      but potentially other relevant jurisdictions using
                                                                                                                                      different methodologies and calculation periods,
                   The extension would be in addition to the already       one-year delay to the fifth and sixth phases of non-       according to Yun.
                   announced one-year deferral of phases five and six      cleared margin rules in response to the disruption            Deadlines set by custodians before the end of the
                   of the requirements.                                    caused by Covid-19.                                        AANA measurement period to have the necessary
                      The result of the vote saw 17 out of the 22             Several countries have adopted the delay,               documentation and operational setups complete
                   members of the Commodity Futures Trading                which will see firms with more than $50 billion            have added to the challenge, said Darcy Bradbury,
                   Commission’s (CFTC’s) Global Markets Advisory           in aggregate average notional amount (AANA)                managing director at hedge fund DE Shaw, speaking
                   Committee recommend that the regulator                  of uncleared derivatives coming into scope of the          during the webcast.
                   implement the extension.                                phase five requirements in September 2021. Firms              “The custodians – and I don’t mean to blame
                      The CFTC regulates only a small number of non-       with between $8 billion and $50 billion of AANA            them, I think they are the people who see the
                   bank broker-dealers affected by the margin rules.       come into scope in September 2022. The US has yet          whole process – have suggested a time period
                   But the proposal, if adopted by the CFTC, may go        to adopt the delay.                                        of potentially eight months or more before the
                   some way to persuading the US Federal Reserve to           The one-year deferral also applies to the calculation   deadline if you want to get in,” said Bradbury. “And
                   change its own ruling.                                  window for firms to tot up their notional amounts          because of changing facts, someone might not be in
                      The recommendation was presented as an               of uncleared derivatives. The phase five calculation       the queue in time to actually make the deadline.”
                   “immediate term” proposal in an April 27 report by      window runs from March 1 to May 31, 2021.                     Dominick Falco, head of collateral segregation
                   the GMAC’s subcommittee on margin requirements             Under the guidance from BCBS-Iosco,                     product at BNY Mellon, and member of the GMAC
                   for non-cleared swaps, made public in a May 19          counterparties that will not immediately breach            subcommittee, said long know-your-customer
                   webcast.1 The report aims to address industry           a $50 million IM threshold for single bilateral            processes and the exchange of a large number of
                   concerns that, despite the additional one-year          relationships can delay having legal documentation         documents by counterparties could “drag out the
                   deferral, many in-scope firms may not be able to        and custodial agreements in place.                         process for some entities to get up and running in
                   complete documentation and operational setups              But there are fears that the rules may come             order to exchange collateral”.
                   in time.                                                too fast for some firms, even those that are                  During the grace period, counterparties would be
                      “For example, it is estimated that the account       monitoring their IM exposure and moving ahead              expected to begin exchanging IM as soon as they
                   opening process, document negotiations, and             with preparations.                                         are ready to do so, rather than waiting until the end
                   operational setup could take up to 12–18 months            The proposed six-month grace period would               of the six-month period.
                   to complete, given the large swell of new market        start at the time that firms’ IM first breaches the           Some firms pointed out the danger of the CFTC
                   participants and trading relationships coming into      $50 million threshold, the report states. For some,        deviating from other regulators with regards
                   scope in phases five, six, and beyond. And there are    this would be at the phase five compliance date            to uncleared margin rules, placing conflicting
                   extensive due diligence, background credit checks,      in September 2021, in the case the US adopts the           obligations on regulated entities.
                   and operational checks that custodians will need        BCBS-Iosco recommended one-year deferral to the               “In our experience, when these sort of situations
                   to complete on clients with who they do not have        rules, and September 2022 for phase six. For firms         occur, when we have split deadlines, it actually adds
                   prior relationships,” said Wendy Yun, co-chair of the   that end up exceeding the margin threshold after           operational complexity in a roll-out and frankly
                   derivatives committee at the Securities Industry and    September 1, the six-month extension would apply           mistakes do happen and things get misclassified,”
                   Financial Markets Association’s asset management        from the date of the breach.                               said Masahiro Yamada, head of cross-asset
                   group, who presented the subcommittee’s report in          The report raised concerns that some firms may          structuring for the Americas at JP Morgan.
                   the webcast.                                            need the full three-month calculation window to               “We would support the six-month delay, so long as
                      “This was intended to strike the right balance       establish if they are in scope of the rules. This would    it was co-ordinated with other agencies and we have
                   between, on the one hand, providing a failsafe          compress the available time for those firms to             that global and cross-regulatory consistency.” ■
                   for market participants facing hurdles despite          complete their preparations before the margin go-live.                                   Previously published on Risk.net
                   their best efforts to comply, and on the other             Such firms include separately managed account
                   hand, ensuring the exchange of IM is not unduly         clients that need to source notional exposure              1
                                                                                                                                          GMAC (May 2020), Recommendations to improve scoping and
                                                                                                                                          implementation of IM requirements for non-cleared swaps,
                   deferred,” Yun added.                                   data from all of their asset managers and then                 https://bit.ly/2ABd9eT

                                                                                                                                                                               risk.net                 3

Risk_IM20_Margin regulation.indd 3                                                                                                                                                                   23/06/2020 16:46
Initial margin Special report 2020 - Risk.net
Sponsored Q&A

            Strategic preparation
            The impact of the UMR
            phase five delay
            Bruce Kellaway, global head of rates, securities and collateral at LCH, discusses the most likely instruments to be pushed into the
            cleared world as a result of phase five implementation, the tactics firms use to drive efficiency in exchange threshold monitoring and
            how firms’ approaches to collateral management are likely to change in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic

                                                                                                  The deferral gives some firms more time to reduce their AANA for the
                                                                                                March–May 2021 calculation by putting mitigation measures, including clearing
                                                                                                and bilateral compression, in place. LCH’s services for cleared (SwapClear) and
                                                                                                non-cleared (SwapAgent) over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives integrate with
                                       Bruce Kellaway                                           vendors offering portfolio compression and optimisation, enabling participants to
                                       Global Head of Rates,                                    optimise their IM requirements across margin pools and potentially bring them
                                       Securities and Collateral                                under the UMR threshold.
                                       www.lch.com                                                Product substitution – where participants clear their emerging market NDFs
                                                                                                and replace their uncleared Group of 10 deltas with cleared G10 NDFs is
                                                                                                another option for managing AANA thresholds.
            Was the delay to implementation phases five and six of the
            uncleared margin rules (UMR) necessary? What impact is it having                    How is the need to post regulatory IM affecting firms’ trading
            on firms’ preparations?                                                             strategies and product choices? Which instruments are most
            Bruce Kellaway: The delay makes sense, as there is still a great deal of            likely to be pushed into the cleared world as a result of phase
            preparatory work required to ensure UMR readiness, and it is important not          five implementation?
            to underestimate the complexity involved and the level of advance planning          Bruce Kellaway: Cleared and non-cleared products require different strategies.
            required. While phases five and six mainly capture buy-side firms, the sheer        While we are seeing a growing uptake of cleared products, less liquid,
            number also creates operational challenges for the sell side. Establishing          non-clearable products are also benefiting from greater standardisation and
            custodial relationships and negotiating credit support annex documentation          operational efficiency through services such as LCH SwapAgent.
            with every in-scope bilateral counterparty can take many months, and any legal         The growing interest in clearing is, however, not entirely product-related.
            challenges will also need to be resolved. IT, operations and risk systems must be   For many counterparties, there is simply an opportunity to reduce the operational
            established, and internal processes updated.                                        burden, but there is also a funding cost benefit. Firms are also optimising more
               Rather than using the extension to slow down or pause plans, participants        between counterparties to lower their IM requirements, including optimisation
            should take advantage of the additional time to evaluate and implement              between cleared and uncleared to reduce the uncleared AANA scope and stay
            strategic solutions that can help lessen the financial impact and reduce the        below the threshold for UMR. In addition, there are capital benefits, as two-way
            operational complexity of UMR. Voluntary clearing of products in scope for          margin has to be posted in UMR, but with clearing, interest rate swaps- and
            UMR, for example, may reduce the aggregate average notional amount (AANA)           futures-executing dealers can clear their hedge positions with the same central
            and lower margin costs. LCH has already seen increased clearing of products         counterparty (CCP) to extinguish their IM liability. With OTC equity derivatives,
            not mandated by regulation, such as foreign exchange non-deliverable                the delta is hedged with the cash equity, but we are exploring possible future
            forwards (NDFs), and options, single names and inflation swaps.                     revisions to the EquityClear risk model to enable cross-margining between the
                                                                                                derivative and the cash.
            The AANA calculation window has also been deferred by a year,                          Having said this, we have experienced product-specific migration to clearing,
            potentially creating a new bottleneck before the phase five                         and the added transparency and efficiency have catalysed growth in those
            deadline – to what extent is this a missed opportunity?                             markets. We are already seeing increased volumes in inflation swaps and EM
            Bruce Kellaway: Deferring the AANA calculation window is consistent with the        NDFs, G10 NDFs and forex options. Cleared credit index options have also seen
            revised UMR implementation timeline, and we don’t see this creating a bigger or     large increases in activity this year, and we expect UMR phase five to push
            smaller bottleneck. Although the US AANA calculation window has not yet been        these products much more quickly into the cleared world. We can also expect
            formally moved, this is expected in due course.                                     firms trading OTC equity derivatives products – which historically have not

        4                  Initial margin Special report 2020

Risk_IM20_Q&A_LCH.indd 4                                                                                                                                                            01/07/2020 15:29
Initial margin Special report 2020 - Risk.net
Sponsored Q&A

                 been cleared – to look for strategic choices that deliver the benefits of central
                 clearing, but retain the flexibility of the OTC market, such as through the product
                 partnership between Turquoise NYLON™ and LCH EquityClear. Clearing may
                 be introduced for additional instruments, but the ability to default manage new
                 products should remain a key consideration for clearing suitability.

                 What tactics are firms employing to drive efficiency in exchange
                 threshold monitoring and optimisation?
                 Bruce Kellaway: Where participants are unable to get below UMR notional
                 thresholds, we are seeing risk optimisation between counterparties and into
                 cleared products. A firm in scope for UMR can keep its IM exchange for each
                 counterparty below the $50 million threshold, either by participating in bilateral
                 or multilateral compression (with rebalancing) or by transferring risk between
                 cleared and uncleared portfolios.
                    This can be complex, especially across different asset classes, as it requires
                 daily, active, real-time threshold management. In contrast, alternative
                 approaches, such as voluntary clearing and product substitution, are low-touch
                 once implemented and deliver the benefits of counterparty choice, capital
                 savings and operational efficiencies.

                 To what extent will the recent market volatility influence firms’
                 choice of IM models?
                 Bruce Kellaway: Margin models need to be efficient and sufficiently reactive
                 but also relatively controlled, with safeguards in place to ensure margin levels
                 aren’t increased dramatically during periods of market stress. LCH deploys a
                 single margin model per clearing service, and the recent volatility has been
                 integrated into our models and reflected in overall margin numbers, which have
                 remained stable throughout this period.
                    Cleared IM is typically lower than non-cleared IM because of the lower
                 margin period of risk (MPOR), which falls below the 10-day UMR MPOR,
                 leading to lower IM for a given confidence model. Clearing also provides
                 opportunities for netting efficiencies across counterparties that cannot be
                 achieved bilaterally.
                    Recent market volatility may lead firms to test different UMR
                 models and compare them to the cleared IM model. But, in the current
                 environment, clearing dramatically cuts both the amount and procyclicality
                 of payments and, as a result, intraday liquidity needs, as well as capital
                 usage procyclicality.

                 How are firms’ approaches to collateral management likely
                 to change in light of recent events?
                 Bruce Kellaway: Recent events have highlighted just how relevant and
                 important collateral velocity is to execution speed as it takes longer to price a
                 deal where the specific eligible collateral has a bearing on execution price.
                    Faced with the possibility of having to hold greater liquidity buffers, some
                 firms are using this opportunity to enhance their collateral optimisation and
                 transformation capabilities by implementing more efficient systems and
                 processes across a wide range of collateral services.
                    Participants may also consider new datasets incorporating recent Covid-19
                 volatility to test liquidity buffers and hold more collateral on their books. This
                 could raise funding and capital costs further under UMR, which requires two-
                 way margin to be posted. This is in contrast to clearing, where the execution
                 dealer can net off client positions with the same CCP to reduce their IM liability.
                 Through its partnership with leading vendors, LCH also extends the benefits of
                 optimisation and compression to non-cleared OTC derivatives, providing the
                 bilateral market with significantly cleaner, more efficient booking, valuation,
                 reconciliation and settlement processes. n

                                                                                                          risk.net      5

Risk_IM20_Q&A_LCH.indd 5                                                                                             01/07/2020 15:29
Initial margin Special report 2020 - Risk.net
Margin data

             A common data standard –
             The side benefits of Simm
               Buy-side firms using AcadiaSoft for standard IM model calculations must adopt the ORE XML data format, a potentially cumbersome
               exercise. By Luke Clancy and Helen Bartholomew

             T     he most bedevilling aspect of exchanging
                   regulatory margin for non-cleared derivatives
             is the calculation of portfolio risk sensitivities, which
                                                                             While recognised data standards for describing
                                                                         over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives do exist – notably,
                                                                         financial products markup language, or FpML – these
                                                                                                                                     AcadiaSoft has amassed the lion’s share of
                                                                                                                                  buy-side margin calculation business, in part due
                                                                                                                                  to its bargain-bin pricing. The firm claims its service
             are used as inputs for the industry’s standard IM           have not been widely adopted on the buy side.            will cost most clients far less than $50,000 a year.
             model, or Simm.                                                 “Many firms do not have their trades in this         Competitors are charging at least double that.
                 Buy-side firms caught in the regime are relying         format [FpML], so the data-mapping work and                 Nearly half the 100 or so firms that will start
             on a small group of vendors – including AcadiaSoft,         quality of this data for the purposes of calculating     exchanging margin early in the next phase of
             Bloomberg, IHS Markit and TriOptima – to perform            risk sensitivities is a challenge,” says Amir Khwaja,    the regime are expected to use AcadiaSoft for
             this task. But first, the trade data needed to run the      chief executive of Clarus FT, which offers a Simm        Simm calculations.
             calculations must be standardised. This is where the        calculation service.
             problems start.                                                 Some vendors include data standardisation as         A challenge of scale
                                                                         part of their Simm calculation services. AcadiaSoft,     But that leaves clients with the problem of
               Need to know                                              the dominant vendor, does not. Clients that sign         data standardisation.
                                                                         up to use its IM Risk Generator service must                Fred Dassori, head of risk products at AcadiaSoft,
               • Clients using AcadiaSoft to calculate risk              standardise and deliver their trade data in a specific   makes no bones about the scale of the challenge.
                 sensitivities must standardise their trade data         format, called ORE XML – or have one of its              “There’s no question that there is some amount of
                 before feeding it into the vendor’s system.             partners do this for them, at an additional cost.        work required for data standardisation. It’s not a snap-
               • Converting trade data to AcadiaSoft’s                       “What might be a little unique about AcadiaSoft      your-fingers issue,” he says. “If bilateral derivatives
                 preferred ORE XML format is a cumbersome                is that they do have this ORE XML requirement,”          data were easily standardisable, the market would
                 exercise, taking up to six weeks for the most           says a collateral specialist at a custody bank. “For     have already gravitated to a single standard.”
                 complex portfolios.                                     firms that don’t have the capability to match that,         When the industry was still facing a
               • Buy-side firms may have struggled to                    you’re paying for time and materials.”                   September 2020 deadline for the next phase of
                 complete this work ahead of the original                    Most buy-side firms are unfamiliar with ORE          compliance, there were real concerns about whether
                 September 2020 deadline for the fifth                   XML and are said to be completely baffled by the         firms would be able to complete this work in time.
                 phase of the non-cleared margin rules.                  standardisation requirement, which calls for trades         “One of the reasons timing came under threat is
               • These firms caught an unexpected break                  to be broken down into their constituent parts –         that, suddenly, everyone due to be in phase five is
                 when regulators agreed to a one-year delay              running to hundreds of data fields for the most          understanding the work involved to become up and
                 in response to the coronavirus outbreak.                complex instruments – and then translated into the       running,” says a rival margin analytics vendor.
               • AcadiaSoft estimates that nearly 50                     vendor’s code.                                              Then the coronavirus outbreak hit and regulators
                 buy-side firms will be using ORE XML when                   “With all the permutations of the OTC derivatives    agreed to postpone the deadlines by a year. That
                 the next phase of the non-cleared margin                that you can have, it’s not an easy feat even for        should give AcadiaSoft’s clients enough time to
                 rules takes effect – making it the de facto             those that are very sophisticated with derivatives       get their data in order – and the OTC derivatives
                 data standard for OTC derivatives.                      systems and data capabilities,” says Judson Baker,       market may finally end up with the common data
                                                                         derivatives product manager at Northern Trust.           standard it has been lacking.

         6                     Initial margin Special report 2020

Risk_IM20_Margin data.indd 6                                                                                                                                                                 23/06/2020 16:47
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Margin data

                   Loyal to the ORE
                   The non-cleared margin rules require counterparties
                   to post regulatory IM in segregated custody accounts
                                                                              “With all the permutations of OTC derivatives that you can have, it’s not an
                   to back their bilateral trades. The regime has been        easy feat even for those that are very sophisticated”
                   rolled out in phases since 2016 and an estimated           Judson Baker, Northern Trust
                   1,000 firms are due to be caught in the next waves.
                   On April 3, regulators agreed to temporarily pause
                   implementation, delaying the fifth and sixth phases        in house and how much effort they want to dedicate            But Dassori makes no apologies for offering the
                   until September 2021 and 2022, respectively.               to this transformation.”                                  service as cheaply as possible. “We feel like our
                       Firms subject to the rules must calculate margin          AcadiaSoft declined to disclose the cost of the        mission here is to make it easy for these firms to
                   amounts using a standard grid or a regulator-              data standardisation service.                             meet their compliance needs. So we have been
                   approved internal model, such as the International            Some of AcadiaSoft’s other partners are also           very aggressive in the way we price the service. And
                   Swaps and Derivatives Association’s (Isda’s) Simm.         stepping in to assist. Northern Trust, which has an       we’ve tried to make it so that it’s not a barrier to
                       Risk sensitivities are a critical input for Simm and   arrangement with AcadiaSoft to provide margin             meeting their compliance needs,” he says.
                   must be provided in a standard template, called a          calculations for its fund administration clients, will        While competitors gripe about its pricing and
                   common risk interchange file. Generating this file is      also offer a data standardisation service in an effort    service model, AcadiaSoft may be poised to pull off
                   considered to be one of the biggest challenges with        to keep costs down.                                       a major victory. The move to delay the fifth phase
                   using the model.                                              “For years we’ve been sending our clients’ OTC         of the rules until September 2021 should give the
                       “In terms of where the challenge lies, the             derivatives positions over to pricing vendors, which      vendor and its clients more than enough time to
                   complexity of Simm sensitivities is high up on the         includes pretty much the same level of information        complete the data transformation work. And with
                   list,” says the rival margin analytics vendor.             required for the risk sensitivities and Simm. So we’re    the phase five cohort estimated to include around
                       AcadiaSoft realised this and called in outside         pretty accustomed to having to maintain and extract       300 buy-side firms – with roughly 100 expected to
                   help. In August 2018, it tapped Quaternion, a risk         all this information in an organised fashion,” says       begin exchanging margin soon after coming into
                   analytics and software firm, to provide the models         Northern Trust’s Baker.                                   scope – Dassori sees an opportunity to cement ORE
                   needed to calculate Simm sensitivities.                       At least one other custodian bank is understood        XML as the data standard for OTC derivatives.
                       To run the calculations, Quaternion needs trade        to be developing a similar service for its clients.           “If things work out as we hope, we could end up
                   data to be in ORE XML, an open-source version                                                                        with as much as 50% or more of phase five firms
                   of Extensible Markup Language that it calls Open           A new standard?                                           using this service, which means having a sizeable
                   Source Risk Engine.                                        Other vendors have different models. Cassini              portion of the market’s bilateral derivatives data in
                       Converting trade data to ORE XML involves              Systems says it will convert the trade data received      this standard format,” he says. “Because AcadiaSoft
                   mapping each bit of information about a trade – for        from clients into its preferred format – which is         provides access to other vendors, that also opens up
                   example, the maturity, notional and cashflows – to         derived from FpML – free of charge.                       significant opportunities to those firms in terms of
                   a series of data fields, known as components. A               Bloomberg accepts trade data in any format,            being able to take advantage of new services with
                   vanilla interest rate swap may have 10 to 15 such          including Excel CSV. Three-quarters of clients that       lower upfront costs.”
                   components. An amortising swap may require                 use Bloomberg for Simm calculations also use its              That could throw a spanner in the works on
                   another 50 to 60 data fields to capture individual         risk management service – meaning trade data is           another major standardisation effort, led by
                   cashflows on each side. For a collateralised debt          already in the vendor’s preferred format. For the         Isda – the architect of Simm. The industry body is
                   obligation, hundreds of data fields may be needed.         remaining clients that use third-party systems for        developing new trade data standards as part of
                       The whole process can take three weeks for             derivatives, “we can easily integrate those valuations    its common domain model (CDM) – an ambitious
                   vanilla portfolios and around six weeks for the            within our Simm infrastructure,” says Eduardo             project aimed at slashing the cost and complexity
                   most complex. Some of AcadiaSoft’s clients were            Pereira, product manager for Simm at Bloomberg.           of the pre- and post-trade lifecycle for OTC
                   overwhelmed by the size of the task.                          Buy-side firms that already use Calypso or IHS         derivatives. But the CDM will come too late for
                       “This plumbing at the heart of the middleware of       Markit to process and manage their derivatives trades     phase five and six firms seeking a silver bullet for
                   the financial system is not a new thing,” says Donal       do not need to provide any additional data to calculate   Simm sensitivity calculations.
                   Gallagher, chief executive of Quaternion. “What            risk sensitivities. Those that use the vendors only for       A margin source at a software firm says that
                   might be true is that it’s newer to the phase five and     Simm calculations must input the data in a standard       if previous experience is anything to go by,
                   phase six firms, so there are institutions out there       format, with some flexibility on how this is done.        AcadiaSoft’s ORE XML format should carry the day.
                   who probably underestimated the complexity or the             TriOptima did not respond to requests for              In the absence of common data standards, “vendors
                   nature of the data associated with OTC derivatives.”       information about its services.                           end up conforming to some other vendor’s spec,
                       Around half the firms that signed up to use               But these alternative offerings cost more than         and whoever the bigger vendor is, you end up
                   AcadiaSoft to calculate Simm sensitivities have            double what AcadiaSoft charges for IM Risk                conforming to them”.
                   punted this work back to Quaternion.                       Generator, with annual fees in the $100,000 to                Others remain to be convinced. “I’m not sure
                       AcadiaSoft’s Dassori says these firms have made        $200,000 range, two vendors tell Risk.net.                if the market is ready to go into one single trade
                   a conscious decision to outsource the project. “The           A second rival margin analytics vendor says            format that will be dictated by AcadiaSoft,” says a
                   reason the clients take us up on it is because we can      AcadiaSoft’s price tag – comprising a subscription        director at a third margin vendor. “It sounds like a
                   likely do it more efficiently than they can,” he says.     fee and a volume charge – is far too low considering      big step.” ■
                   “It depends on what kind of resources the client has       the overheads and complexity involved.                                           Previously published on Risk.net

                                                                                                                                                                         risk.net                 7

Risk_IM20_Margin data.indd 7                                                                                                                                                                 23/06/2020 16:47
Initial margin Special report 2020 - Risk.net
AANA calculation

             IM calculation window delay
             leaves some exasperated
               The ‘hasty’ decision by global rule-makers to delay the threshold calculation period for the non-cleared margin rules phase five is
               frustrating for firms that had already started IM preparation. By Rebekah Tunstead

         8                  Initial margin Special report 2020

Risk_IM20_AANA calculation.indd 8                                                                                                                    23/06/2020 16:48
Initial margin Special report 2020 - Risk.net
AANA calculation

                   T     he decision to delay the threshold calculation
                         period for the fifth phase of the non-cleared
                   margin rules has left some firms complaining that
                                                                               “I think [BCBS-Iosco] made the
                                                                                                                                            “The majority of our clients have indicated that
                                                                                                                                         they’re going to move at pretty much the same
                                                                                                                                         pace as prior to the postponement, while some are
                   preparatory work may need to be redone and others           decision rather quickly and probably                      slowing down and a few of them are still trying to
                   warning of operational overload next year.                  didn’t think about the full impact                        assess the situation,” he says.
                      The shift accompanies a delay of phases five and         of moving the calculation. I would                           Falco adds that several clients who anticipate
                   six of IM rules, which will sweep hundreds of buy-                                                                    dropping down into phase six have decided to
                                                                               prefer them to move it back”
                   side firms into scope.                                                                                                pause preparations.
                      “From the dealer’s point of view, we’re well into        Derivatives trading head at a large US dealer                BNY Mellon recently hired two employees to
                   negotiations with phase five firms, and I think that                                                                  bolster onboarding and the IM account setup
                   both the dealers and the firms that we’ve been                                                                        processes, with more expected to be hired in the
                   speaking to effectively want to go ahead and finish            According to Chetan Joshi, chief operating officer     autumn, says Falco.
                   up that work,” says a derivatives trading head at a         of consultancy Margin Reform, a typical non-                 “We’re not going to see a big swell of
                   large US dealer.                                            cleared margin regulation project can take between        documentation coming in during May through
                      The delay was announced by the Basel Committee           12 and 18 months to complete in full. That means          July as originally anticipated. We expect the
                   on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and the International         firms should be running the AANA calculation this         documentation curve will be flatter and come in
                   Organization of Securities Commissions (Iosco) on April     year anyway to give themselves the maximum time           over a longer period of time,” he adds.
                   3 in response to the operational disruptions caused         to prepare.
                   by the coronavirus pandemic. If adopted into local             “Starting your regulatory project during or at the     Local law
                   regulation, the new timetable would see firms with          end of the AANA calculation period is not advisable       National regulators must now decide whether and
                   more than €50 billion in aggregate average notional         as there is no practical way you can get compliant        when to translate the BCBS-Iosco delay of IM rules
                   amount (AANA) of over-the-counter derivatives being         that quickly. You need to be performing the AANA          into local law.
                   subject to phase five requirements in September             calculation at least one year in advance to give             On April 9, the Commodity Futures Trading
                   2021, and those with AANA between €8 billion and            you time to work out if you are in scope, look at         Commission (CFTC) published in the Federal
                   €50 billion subject to phase six in September 2022.         immediate remediation options if your AANA is near        Register its final rule on implementing the split
                      The original BCBS-Iosco announcement                     the threshold, and prepare for the bare minimum,”         between phases five and six of IM requirements, as
                   suggested the AANA calculation period for phase             he says.                                                  recommended by the twin standard-setters in July last
                   five firms would remain between March and May                  On the other hand, portfolios could change             year. The rule is due to come into effect on May 11.3
                   of this year even with the compliance timetable             significantly in a one-year period, says Liam Huxley,        It is understood that if the CFTC decides to defer
                   pushed forward.1 However, the Basel Committee               chief executive of margin analytics firm Cassini          implementation of phases five and six, as the Basel
                   and Iosco were alerted within hours of the release          Systems, especially given recent volatility. This means   Committee and Iosco have recommended, then it
                   to what sources described as “an error” in the              delaying the calculation period might be a good           will need to issue a separate rulemaking. This also
                   announcement, and the document was immediately              idea. It may also give firms that are hovering at the     applies to the AANA calculation period.
                   changed to state that the AANA calculation would            foot of the phase five threshold more time to reduce         For now, though, the CFTC rule states that
                   also be deferred for a year along with the deadline.        their derivatives notional and force themselves into      phase five firms will be required to calculate AANA
                      The Basel Committee did not respond to a                 phase six.                                                between March and May of this year.
                   request for comment. Iosco declined to comment.                “It would not have been sensible to keep people           Traditionally, US firms have calculated AANA
                      The deferral of the calculation window means firms       bound by this year’s AANA numbers for a regulation        between June and August the year before the
                   cannot confirm whether they will be caught in one of        that’s going to apply in a year and a half, especially    go-live date. This could mean that if the one-year
                   the final two phases of the rules until after the end       those firms who are more on the cusp [between             deferral is implemented, some US firms might face
                   of next May, ahead of the September 1, 2021 start           phases five and six] and may be able to rebalance the     repeating the calculation: last year, this year and
                   date for phase five. Some fear this may not leave           portfolio to drop into phase six before next March.”      next year. Phase six firms may also have to run the
                   them with enough time to prepare, while others are             Smaller firms may welcome the opportunity to           same calculation again in 2022.
                   concerned that a scramble to finalise contracts with        move into phase six as they would benefit from any           The dealer says there is still time for the
                   counterparties could create a logistical bottleneck.        further relaxation of the IM requirements between         Basel Committee and Iosco to move the AANA
                      “I think you lose the efficiencies and the relief that   September 2021 and the final implementation date          calculation back to its original timeframe of March
                   the regulators were trying to provide if you move           a year later.                                             to May this year.
                   that calculation,” says the derivatives trading head.          But most firms are resigned to the likelihood of          “I think they made the decision rather quickly with
                      Neil Murphy, business manager at TriOptima, a            being caught in phase five, delay or no delay.            everything happening and probably didn’t think about
                   post-trade service provider, says that prior to the            “I don’t think there’s a sense of phase five firms     the full impact of moving the calculation,” he says.
                   one-year deferral there was already concern in the          thinking that extending that calculation is not going        “I would prefer them to move it back.” ■
                   market about running the AANA calculation in the            to force them to be phase five,” says the derivatives                                    Previously published on Risk.net
                   same year as the deadline, given the large number           trading head at the US dealer.
                   of buy-side firms facing IM requirements for the first         Dom Falco, head of collateral segregation product      1
                                                                                                                                           The Basel Committee and Iosco (April 2020), Margin requirements for
                   time. One estimate in March was that more than              at BNY Mellon, says the custodian bank would              2
                                                                                                                                           non-centrally cleared derivatives, https://bit.ly/2Mt2pSz
                                                                                                                                           International Swaps and Derivatives Association (March 2020),
                   3,500 counterparty relationships would be dragged           “rather just continue as if there were no change” to        Coronavirus – Delay to IM deadlines necessary, https://bit.ly/2BuP8Xj
                                                                                                                                         3
                                                                                                                                           CFTC (April 2020), Federal Register, Vol. 85, No. 69, Rules and
                   into phase five of the rules.2                              the AANA calculation period.                                Regulations, https://bit.ly/2BpQ fYe

                                                                                                                                                                                     risk.net                      9

Risk_IM20_AANA calculation.indd 9                                                                                                                                                                             23/06/2020 16:48
Q&A

             Pandemic volatility
             How it is is affecting
             collateral management
              Ed Corral, global head of collateral strategy at J.P. Morgan, explores the impact of the delay to uncleared margin rules phases five
              and six, and how this will play out alongside the delay to the aggregate average notional amount, as well as the extent to which
              recent volatility in the market caused by the Covid-19 pandemic will influence firms’ choice of IM models

                                                                                                   pushed into the cleared world at this juncture would be speculative. However, to
                                                                                                   the extent possible, participants will hold on to their long-dated (pre-regulatory
                                         Ed Corral                                                 deadline) trades and steer away from any material changes to avoid making
                                                                                                   legacy trades in scope for segregation of IM and trigger the additional costs.
                                         Global Head of Collateral Strategy
                                         J.P. Morgan                                               What tactics are firms employing to drive efficiency in exchange
                                         www.jpmorgan.com                                          threshold monitoring and optimisation?
                                                                                                   Ed Corral: As buy-side participants start to become familiar with Simm and
                                                                                                   Grid calculation methodologies, margin analytics capabilities are coming to
                                                                                                   the forefront. The decision around where to put on a new trade – for example,
             Was the delay to implementation phases five and six of the                            cleared versus bilateral, and which counterparty or central counterparty – will
             uncleared margin rules necessary? What impact is it having on                         heavily consider the required IM amount. The buy-side’s front office will need the
             firms’ preparations?                                                                  required tools to make the right decision.
             Ed Corral: While our preparations were on track to meet the original deadline,
             from an industry perspective, the delay was certainly welcome. Considering            To what extent will the recent market volatility influence firms’
             that the IM calculation and reconciliation processes are brand new for buy-side       choice of IM models?
             firms, the additional time granted by the delay will provide an opportunity for       Ed Corral: It still depends on the make-up of a particular firm’s portfolio. The
             them to dig deeper into the nuances of the International Swaps and Derivatives        heightened volatility has driven a corresponding increase in required margin.
             Association’s standard IM model (Simm) versus getting ready for IM (Grid) for         This, in turn, has sharpened all firms’ focus on the most efficient model for their
             specific product types. They can also use this time to refine the workflows built     portfolio. While Grid does not allow for offsetting risks and is generally regarded
             around the reconciliation process and take advantage of the prolonged testing         as the more conservative methodology, anecdotally, some buy-side firms have
             period. All of this should naturally translate into a smoother go-live – especially   made their own independent determination based on the composition of their
             for phase five firms.                                                                 overall portfolios.

             The aggregate average notional amount (AANA) calculation                              How are firms’ approaches to collateral management likely to
             window has also been deferred by a year, potentially creating a                       change in light of recent events?
             new bottleneck before the phase five deadline – to what extent is                     Ed Corral: Collateral management continues its journey from a back-office
             this a missed opportunity?                                                            function to a value-generating front-office one. Recent events only speed this
             Ed Corral: Most buy-side firms already have a good understanding of the size          transition and highlight the importance of effective collateral management
             of their derivatives books and have already made a preliminary determination          from a cost management/avoidance point of view. Further to recent market
             on whether they will be in scope for phases five or six. Delaying the AANA            volatility, a number of previously ‘dormant’ high-threshold credit support
             calculation window shouldn’t impact participants’ go-live readiness.                  annexes have turned active and exchanged margin for the first time. This has
                                                                                                   increased firms’ overall collateral requirement, thus creating further stress on
             How is the need to post regulatory IM affecting firms’ trading                        those firms’ overall liquidity. n
             strategies and product choices? Which instruments are most
             likely to be pushed into the cleared world as a result of phase five
             implementation?                                                                        >> Ed Corral’s responses to our questionnaire are in a personal capacity, and the
             Ed Corral: Firms have become even more keenly aware of the ancillary costs             views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect or represent the views of J.P. Morgan
             associated with the in-scope trades. Commenting on which instruments will be

        10                  Initial margin Special report 2020

Risk_IM20_Q&A_JPM.indd 10                                                                                                                                                                     30/06/2020 11:53
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RRQ18-AD-230x297.indd 1                                                                                                                       5/1/18 3:02 PM
Margin models

              Covid-19 rout raises
              concerns about Simm
               Annual recalibration means March volatility will not be reflected in margin until end-2021. By Helen Bartholomew

         12                Initial margin Special report 2020

Risk_IM20_Margin models.indd 12                                                                                                   29/06/2020 16:08
Margin models

                  A       s fears about the market impact of the coronavirus intensified in
                          March, central counterparties (CCPs) rushed to hike margin for cleared
                  swaps. At the height of the tumult, one corner of the derivatives market was
                                                                                                            “The Simm is designed to handle volatility. It’s innately conservative, allowing
                                                                                                         a safety buffer for times when there is some volatility in the market. If we
                                                                                                         see evidence of persistent and material shortfalls across the industry, that’s
                  a picture of relative calm: collateral requirements for non-cleared trades             an indicator we might need to make a change to the Simm,” she says. “Our
                  barely flinched.                                                                       governance framework sets out quarterly monitoring and annual calibration
                      The muted response to the wildest market swings in more than a decade              and backtesting, so firms can plan and budget for when changes come down
                  is raising concerns about the industry-developed standard IM model (Simm).             the pipeline.”
                  The model is recalibrated annually, with a one-year lag, meaning the extreme              Simm includes a mechanism for users to top up margin on a portfolio-by-
                  volatility in March will not be reflected in regulatory IM until the end of 2021.      portfolio basis through a variety of adjustments, such as multipliers and add-ons.
                      “Simm is still generally higher than CCP margin, but it may be a concern           Such add-ons could be used to cover any shortfalls, but they must be agreed
                  for banks using the model right now that it hasn’t calibrated to the extent            with counterparties and could give rise to disputes.
                  perhaps it should have, given all this volatility,” says Mohit Gupta, senior product      “Simm is an approved model, but the responsibility of making sure that model
                  specialist at Cassini Systems, a margin analytics firm.                                is adequate still sits on the user. The question comes down to your interpretation
                      Some say Simm margin may have fallen short of value-at-risk-based                  of how quickly you need to react to the rule and whether you think the IM amount
                  minimums set by regulators. According to guidance from the Basel Committee             covers the 99% confidence interval on a 10-day horizon or not,” says Chotai.
                  on Banking Supervision and International Organization of Securities                       “I think most institutions will be trying to decide which way they want to
                  Commissions, IM for non-cleared derivatives must capture valuation changes             go, but it needs to be a symmetric solution in terms of timing. If you have just
                  “consistent with a one-tailed 99% confidence interval over a 10-day horizon”           one institution pumping up its margins because it recalibrated, then the whole
                  and be based on historical data that includes periods of financial stress.1            thing breaks because the other dealers would need to do the same to avoid
                      “Given the recent volatility, it is highly likely that there will be cases where   margin disputes.”
                  firms might see the current version of Simm failing this test,” says Dipak Chotai,        A second counterparty risk manager at a European bank says margin disputes
                  founder of consultancy JD Risk Solutions, and a former head of foreign exchange,       increased in March, but he attributes this largely to operational errors, such
                  rates, and credit risk management at UBS.                                              as instruments being allocated to different risk buckets, and closer scrutiny of
                      A counterparty risk manager at a US bank says Simm passed the test this            margin amounts in a period of market stress.
                  time – mostly. “The indication so far is that Simm is still within the allowances         Ultimately, there is little incentive for Simm users to push for higher margins.
                  of the Basel traffic lights. I don’t think you will see severe widespread breaches,”   Due to the symmetrical nature of regulatory IM, counterparties must post equal
                  he says.                                                                               amounts to each other via a segregated custody account.
                      CCP margin models responded more aggressively to the market rout. From                Higher margin requirements for non-cleared trades may be unavoidable,
                  March 13 to 16, LCH hiked margins for cleared swaps by 15% to 30% over a               however. Simm is a parametric VAR model that is calibrated to cover a 99%
                  single weekend.                                                                        confidence interval over a 10-day liquidation period using historic data. This
                      Analysis from Cassini shows margin charged on a €100 million 30-year swap          comprises three years of data from the last calibration plus one additional year
                  at CCPs using historic VAR models jumped 37% between February 12 and                   of a stress scenario. For most asset classes, this ‘3+1’ approach means the 2008
                  March 13. Margin for a similar position calculated using Simm climbed by just          financial crisis continues to be hard-wired into bilateral margin calculations.
                  15% over the same period.                                                              This is expected to change once the model is recalibrated to include the market
                      The difference is explained by the low calibration frequency for Simm. The risk    response to the coronavirus outbreak.
                  factor multipliers in the model are updated once a year, making it less responsive        “The levels of volatility and instantaneous changes have been
                  to market events. By contrast, CCP margin models are constantly recalibrated in        unprecedented – 2020 will definitely replace 2008 for most products [when
                  response to changing market conditions.                                                Simm is recalibrated],” says the counterparty risk manager at the US bank.
                      Simm is updated annually ahead of the December release of the latest                  The latest version of the model – Simm 2.2 – was published in September
                  version, using data from the full-year prior. This means the volatility surge in       2019 and went live on December 1. The update included a new high-volatility
                  March will not be factored into regulatory IM until December 2021.                     bucket for foreign exchange, reflecting large swings in some emerging market
                                                                                                         currencies in 2018. The risk multiplier for the Brazilian real jumped around 30%
                  Low-frequency margin                                                                   as a result. Cassini’s Gupta says similar increases could be in store for other asset
                  The once-a-year recalibration is aimed at avoiding procyclicality. At CCPs             classes once the most recent data is incorporated into the model.
                  using historic VAR models, margin requirements tend to shrink during benign               “We’ll probably see an increase across the board. And perhaps of a similar
                  times and then balloon in periods of stress, exacerbating liquidity problems           magnitude, because the moves have been pretty wild. But it depends how long it
                  as members scramble to meet margin calls. Simm charges are fairly stable in            lasts. If it subsides soon, it might be a smaller magnitude, or it could be that the
                  comparison, though the wide disparity with CCP margin has raised questions             model gets changed sooner rather than later to reflect these moves,” says Gupta.
                  about whether changes are necessary.                                                      Not everyone is so sure. Isda’s Kruse says it’s too early to say whether 2020
                     “There’s no simple answer,” says Gupta. “Simm could be calibrated daily like        will ultimately displace 2008 as the stress period in the model.
                  a CCP, but if you do that, the model loses its simplicity and the data requirement        “What no-one knows at the moment is whether the period we’re in now will
                  is going to be huge. The model is supposed to be holistic – a simple model that        end up being more volatile than 2008–09, the current period of stress used in
                  everyone can use. If you calibrate more frequently, everyone has to recalibrate        the Simm,” she says. “We’ll find out next year whether the stress period used in
                  together, otherwise you get mismatches.”                                               the Simm could change for one or more asset classes.” ■
                     Tara Kruse, global head of data, infrastructure and non-cleared margin at the                                                                             Previously published on Risk.net
                  International Swaps and Derivatives Association (Isda), says there are no plans to
                  increase the calibration frequency in light of recent events.                          1
                                                                                                             The Basel Committee (December 2019), Margin requirements, https://bit.ly/3dy5A7b

                                                                                                                                                                                           risk.net               13

Risk_IM20_Margin models.indd 13                                                                                                                                                                              29/06/2020 16:08
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