INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine

Page created by Sarah Hampton
 
CONTINUE READING
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine
OCT/NOV 2021

              2022

                  INDUSTRY
                  OUTLOOK
                  EXTENDED

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 1          9/24/2021 4:07:13 PM
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine
2022
     Industry
     Outlook                                 By Shannon Gayton
                                               and Lauren White

     CAUTIOUSLY

     PREPARING
     FOR GROWTH,
     EXPANSION IN 2022
     The wood flooring industry is optimistic for
     2022, with 55 percent of respondents in
     our annual NWFA Industry Outlook survey
     expecting sales to be up somewhat (3-7
     percent) next year, and about a fifth expecting
     sales to be up significantly (8+ percent).
     About the same number expect to end 2021
     on a strong note, with three-quarters of
     respondents expecting an increase in sales.
     While many members are cautiously
     optimistic about future business, uncertainty
     remains thanks to the ups and downs of the
     past 18 months.
     Home sales and remodeling projects have
     skyrocketed as people continue to invest in
     more comfortable living and workspaces, but
                                                                            PHOTOS COURTESY OF NWFA

     many members wonder how long that surge
     will last. Labor shortages and supply chain
     challenges are shading their optimism.

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 2                        9/24/2021 4:07:18 PM
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the supply
            chain, leading to longer lead times and higher prices
                                                                          2022 EXPECTED SALES GROWTH
            for many NWFA survey respondents. One member
            said, “Prices have skyrocketed on flooring, and we                        Up Significantly (8%+)   22%
            are put in a situation where we have to bid a job
            without even knowing the final costs of material. It                     Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)     55%
            is a challenge to explain this to customers.”
                                                                                 About the Same (-2 to +2%)    20%
            “Now that everything is back open, we are having
            a tremendously difficult time sourcing product,”
                                                                                  Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)    2%
            said Craig Dupra, president at Installers Warehouse
            and chairman of the board for NWFA. “We only
                                                                                   Significantly Down (-8%+)   1%
            pick a limited number of vendors and put an
            enormous amount of resources into developing

                                                                                                                    10%

                                                                                                                          20%

                                                                                                                                30%

                                                                                                                                      40%

                                                                                                                                            50%

                                                                                                                                                  60%

                                                                                                                                                          70%

                                                                                                                                                                80%

                                                                                                                                                                      90%
            that market. When the supply chain started to
            choke off, we didn’t have a large cadre of people to
            look to for product.”                                   One manufacturer shared its plans for operational improvements later
                                                                    this year. In addition to rebuilding an older defect cutoff machine,
            Further adding to uncertainty, the National             the company invested in automated equipment that will allow it to
            Association of Home Builders recently reported          eliminate manual requirements and reduce the personnel needed to
            that higher building costs, long lead times, as well    bundle flooring to just one employee instead of three.
            as declining labor, material, and lots are having
            an impact on the housing industry, resulting in a       Enhanced social media marketing initiatives played a role in one
            6.6 percent reduction in new single-family home         company’s success throughout the pandemic. “We’ve started to do
            purchases, the lowest since April 2020.                 more social media marketing, and it has been impactful to our sales,”
                                                                    said Theresa Ridinger, customer relations manager at LW Flooring.
            The uncertainty that started with the COVID-19          “With retailers, a sales rep has to visit them repeatedly, and it doesn’t
            pandemic incentivized many NWFA members to              always lead to them agreeing to take our product into the showroom.
            change how they do business. Respondents to the         But social media posts make them interested in our product, and
            NWFA annual survey reported plans to prioritize         they reach out to us. It’s an additional touchpoint to help in the
            the following initiatives in the second half of 2021    sales process.”
            and into 2022:
               • Invest in or leverage existing technology
                 for growth
                                                                    Further adding to uncertainty, the National
               • Improve processes to become more efficient         Association of Home Builders recently reported
               • Add new locations/expand geographically            that higher building costs, long lead times,
               • Add new product categories, lines, or services     as well as
               • Add new team members                               declining labor,
                                                                    material, and
            Some NWFA members looked toward automation
            and technology to streamline operations. One
                                                                    lots are having
            distributor is in the testing phase of a technology     an impact on the
            that would allow their retailers to transmit purchase   housing industry,
            orders automatically from their system to               resulting in a 6.6
            the distributor, reducing human errors, and             percent reduction
            eliminating a time-consuming step in the process.       in new single-
            Other plans include:                                    family home
               • Improving operational infrastructure               purchases, the
                                                                    lowest since
               • Updating computer systems
                                                                    April 2020.
               • Tracking inventory management

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 3                                                                                                              9/24/2021 4:07:22 PM
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine
2022
                          Industry Outlook

                                                           EXPECTED DEMAND BY COLOR IN 2022
         BUSINESS AS
         USUAL? COVID-19                                                 Gray Stains                              Cerused

         TRIGGERED LONG-TERM                                                5%
         OPERATIONAL CHANGES                                                     8%                            4%
                                                                                                             6%
         FOR SOME                                                                      16%
         The COVID-19 pandemic changed                              71%                                     19%
         the way many NWFA members
         operated their business during the past                                                                     71%
         18 months. More than 50 percent of
         respondents reported increased health
                                                                         Dark Stains                        Natural Wood Colors
         and sanitation measures to mitigate the
         impacts of the pandemic, and another                               4%                                     1%
         36 percent implemented remote-work                                      15%
         options. As a result of COVID-19,                                         7%                                   25%
         some NWFA members reported other                          74%                                      70%
         operational changes, including:                                                                                      4%

            • Canceling or decreasing work travel
            • Adding drive-thru supply pickups
            • Staggering shifts                                                              White Stains

            • Implementing virtual customer                                                    9%
              appointments                                                                           12%
            • Enacting layoffs
                                                                                        69%            10%
         While many respondents plan to
         continue pandemic-related mitigation
         strategies into 2022, only 12 percent
         anticipate the need to cancel or decrease
         work travel.
                                                           More Demand          Less Demand          Same Demand            Don't Know/Didn’t Sell

                HAVE YOU HAD
              PROBLEMS FINDING
              ADEQUATE SKILLED
                LABOR SO FAR
                 THIS YEAR?                          MEMBERS SEEK RELIEF FROM LABOR SHORTAGE
                                                     For many respondents, finding employees                         Some members speculate
                                                     for positions such as warehouse, shipping,                      that government
                                                     production, general labor, and skilled labor like               stimulus programs and
                                                     installation proved challenging amid the ongoing                unemployment assistance
                        50%              50%         pandemic. Of those surveyed, half of NWFA                       are affecting the current
                                                     members reported difficulty finding adequate                    labor pool negatively.
                         No               Yes
                                                     skilled labor in 2021. One respondent said of                   Other reasons include:
                                                     hiring challenges, “There are no responses to
                                                     advertised open positions. It seems that there is                  • Trade work is not the
                                                     no interest in joining the trades by those entering                  desired work sought
                                                     or re-entering the workforce.”                                       by job seekers.

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 4                                                                                              9/24/2021 4:07:22 PM
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine
• Drivers and warehouse
                 personnel are in high            IN WHAT WAYS HAS THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
                 demand, and the cost of         CHANGED HOW YOU OPERATE YOUR BUSINESS?
                 retaining these employees
                 is rising.                                                Layoffs    17%
               • Candidates are looking
                 for different working               Virtual customer appointments    18%
                 arrangements (permanent
                 remote work, etc.).
                                                                  Staggering shifts   21%
               • Wage rates for entry-level
                 jobs are being pushed up.
                                                          Drive-thru supply pickups   26%
            “In my opinion, the labor
            market will not stabilize. There’s
            a generation of people retiring       Canceled or decreased work travel   27%
            from cutting trees, skidding
            logs, and driving trucks,” said                                           36%
                                                                  Working remotely
            Kent Barnes, co-owner of
            Hardwood Floors of Hillsboro.
                                                               Increased health and
            “Demand is at a record high,                        sanitation measures   50%
            prices are following that trend,
                                                                                        5%

                                                                                             10%

                                                                                                   15%

                                                                                                         20%

                                                                                                               25%

                                                                                                                     30%

                                                                                                                           35%

                                                                                                                                 40%

                                                                                                                                       45%

                                                                                                                                             50%

                                                                                                                                                   55%
            and the labor situation is what’s
            driving it. There needs to be a
            new generation of people to do
            that work.”
            A recent article published in
            Industrial Distribution discussed
            other potential factors cited
            by large public distributors as      WHICH OF THESE CHANGES TO YOUR BUSINESS
            the global economy rebounds
            from 2020 shutdowns. Lack of
                                                   DO YOU EXPECT TO CONTINUE IN 2022?
            childcare, school closures, and
                                                                           Layoffs    12%
            degrees of societal openness or
            closures have led to significant
            gender disparities. “Our female          Virtual customer appointments    12%
            applications are down about a
            third from what we’ve seen in                         Staggering shifts   23%
            recent years,” said Dan Florness,
            chief executive officer of
            Fastenal. “And we’ve seen worse               Drive-thru supply pickups   24%
            than historical patterns as far
            as turnover in an environment         Canceled or decreased work travel   12%
            where society is shut down, and
            a lot of schools and daycares
            closed. We’ve seen a dramatic                         Working remotely    30%
            impact. And that has fallen
            largely on the female portion of                   Increased health and
                                                                sanitation measures   50%
            our employee base and potential
                                                                                        5%

                                                                                             10%

                                                                                                   15%

                                                                                                         20%

                                                                                                               25%

                                                                                                                     30%

                                                                                                                           35%

                                                                                                                                 40%

                                                                                                                                       45%

                                                                                                                                             50%

                                                                                                                                                   55%

            employee base.”

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 5                                                                                                    9/24/2021 4:07:23 PM
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine
2022
                          Industry Outlook

            “There are no responses to advertised open positions. It seems that there is no interest in
             joining the trades by those entering or re-entering the workforce.”
                                                                              – One respondent said of hiring challenges

         NWFA members have worked to overcome hiring challenges             LONGER, WIDER BOARDS
         through recruitment strategies such as:                            IN NATURAL COLORS
            • Staffing agencies                                             CONTINUE TO TREND
            • Word-of-mouth                                                 Trends for wood flooring products are expected to remain
                                                                            largely the same in 2022, including categories such as wire-
            • Job boards                                                    brushed, reclaimed flooring, unfinished, solid, engineered,
            • Attendance bonuses                                            and factory-finished. Demand for gray stains, dark stains,
            • Higher wages                                                  and hand-scraped textures are expected to decrease, while
                                                                            natural wood colors, wide plank, and engineered flooring are
            • Flexible hours                                                expected to increase. Reasons for the shift include:
            • Referral bonus programs
                                                                                • “Trends are moving toward traditional ‘real’ looking
         One NWFA member has turned to existing staff members                     floors. Grays and reactive colors can look too much
         to find new candidates. “I’ve been recruiting in this industry           like vinyl now.”
         for 10 years, and the hiring challenge has always been there,
         but it’s certainly more prevalent now,” said Ridinger. “We’re          • “People are wanting longer, wider boards in more natural,
         offering existing employees referral bonuses. We know our                lighter colors.”
         existing staff are the best people to understand what it takes         • “Lights and naturals are the trends. The widths will
         to do the job. They’re more likely to know people who would              continue to go wider, and engineered is the way to go.”
         do a good job.”                                                    The majority of respondents expect demand for certain
         Another member said they’ve adapted their hiring                   species of wood flooring products to remain the same in 2022
         strategies to cast a broader net. “In some cases, we are           compared to 2021. Nearly 32 percent of respondents forecast
         hiring bright, young talent and investing in training.             increased demand for white oak and around 15 percent
         Historically, our focus has been on employees with                 expect increased demand for red oak. Almost 20 percent of
         technical and industry knowledge.”                                 respondents expect the demand for bamboo to decrease based
                                                                            on current trends.
         For some respondents, not being able to find the right
         candidates for the job has led to increased turnover. Lenny        One respondent said, “Currently we are seeing demand spike
         Hall, president at Endurance Floor Company, said to combat         for white oak, followed by red oak, and reclaimed flooring has
         high turnover from new hires in his contracting business, he       been unexpectedly requested in a larger share of estimates.”
         is candid about the demands and responsibilities of the job.       One member believes
         “Decide on a pay rate, but let them know there will be a           consumers have become
         default for two to three days in the field to prove they have      domestically oriented
         the skills they say they do. Have an employee manual that          since COVID-19
         lays out these expectations clearly.”                              and feel

                                                                                     ©
                                                                                CK
                                                                              TO
                                                                            GS
                                                                          BI

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 6                                                                                           9/24/2021 4:07:26 PM
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine
differently about imported products.                                  REAL WOOD REBOUNDS,
                  Another respondent looks to availability                              LOOK-ALIKE THREAT SUBSIDES
                  constraints as a main driver for the shift:
                  “The freight issues that currently are                                In previous years, luxury vinyl tile (LVT), wood plastic
                  being experienced by manufacturers                                    composite (WPC), and laminate have been considered the
                  shipping from the Far East likely will                                biggest long-term threat to real-wood products. In the 2020
                  continue through the first half of 2022.                              Industry Outlook, 57 percent of respondents reported wood-
                  Customers based in the U.S. will be                                   look products having a negative impact on real-wood sales.
                  looking inside their own borders for                                  Big projects like high-rise developments, hotels, condos, and
                  more product sources, as well as available                            commercial buildings looking for lower material pricing and
                  supply from South America and Canada.”                                lower-maintenance flooring options were cited as reasons for
                                                                                        the impact. When asked what products were considered to be
                  Another member said, “Customers want                                  the biggest threat to real wood products going forward, almost
                  material that will perform and be trouble-                            53 percent reported laminate to be their biggest threat, with an
                  free and easy-to-maintain, less exotics.”                             additional 32 percent citing LVT.

                                             More Demand                     Less Demand                    Same Demand           Don't Know/Didn’t Sell

                                                     EXPECTED DEMAND BY TYPE IN 2022
                         80%

                          70%

                         60%

                         50%

                         40%

                         30%

                         20%

                          10%

                            0%
                                     Wire-Brushed
                                          Flooring

                                                     Engineered

                                                                  Factory-
                                                                  Finished

                                                                                Engineered
                                                                                 Composite

                                                                                              Long Boards

                                                                                                             Reclaimed
                                                                                                               Flooring

                                                                                                                          Solid

                                                                                                                                   Unfinished

                                                                                                                                                Wide Plank

                                                                                                                                                             Hand-Scraped

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 7                                                                                                                                  9/24/2021 4:07:27 PM
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine
2022
                          Industry Outlook

                                               EXPECTED DEMAND BY SPECIES IN 2022

                            Bamboo

                                Beech

           Birch, Red/Yellow

                   Cherry, Black

                                  Cork

        Cypress, Australian

                       Douglas Fir

                 Hickory/Pecan

                                     Ipe

                               Jarrah

                              Jatoba

          Mahogany, Santos

          Maple, Sugar/Hard

                                              0%     10%    20%          30%      40%        50%     60%         70%    80%

                                             More Demand   Less Demand         Same Demand     Don't Know/Didn’t Sell

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 8                                                                              9/24/2021 4:07:27 PM
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine
EXPECTED DEMAND BY SPECIES IN 2022

                                Merbau

                             Mesquite

                             Oak, Red

                          Oak, White

                                Padauk

          Pine, Antique Heart

                   Pine, Southern
                           Yellow

                                 Sapele

                                     Teak

              Walnut, American
                         Black

                                 Wenge

                  Other domestic

                  Other imported

                                              0%     10%   20%           30%      40%        50%     60%        70%       80%

                                             More Demand   Less Demand         Same Demand     Don't Know/Didn’t Sell

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 9                                                                              9/24/2021 4:07:28 PM
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK EXTENDED 2022 - Hardwood Floors Magazine
2022
                          Industry Outlook

                WHICH PRODUCT DO YOU SEE AS THE BIGGEST
                LONG-TERM THREAT TO REAL WOOD PRODUCTS?

                                                                  Laminate

                                                                  LVT
                         32%
                                                                  Other
                                              54%
                          9%                                      Tile

                            4%
                                                                  Carpet
                             1%
                                                                  WPC
                                               0%

               ARE YOU EXPERIENCING                                            • “Most people want real wood. Consumers are realizing
                                                                                 plastic flooring is awful for the environment and doesn’t
               UNUSUALLY EXTENDED                                                last nearly as long.”
               LEAD TIMES AND
                                                                               • “We have ever-increasing demand for real wood, while
               UNPREDICTABLE                                                     the LVT market is for low-end homes that will be back in
               SUPPLY FOR ANY                                                    five years wanting real wood.”
               PRODUCT?                                                      For some respondents, wood-look products remain a threat,
                                               41%                           however: “Some homeowners are drawn to wood-look
                                               Yes         59%               products that are waterproof, especially if they have small
                                                                             children or pets.”
                                                            No
                                                                             When asked if “waterproof” wood-flooring products
                                                                             were having an impact on business, only 11 percent of
                                                                             respondents answered “Yes.” One member said, “I believe
                                                                             we will continue to be impacted to some degree as a result of
                                                                             how these products are marketed. However, we are seeing a
                                                                             large number of our customers that have returned to wood
                                                                             as a result of real-life performance issues related to these
         This year’s results, however, indicate a shift in customer          alternate options.”
         demand from previous years. Just under 15 percent of NWFA
         members surveyed reported experiencing a negative effect            One manufacturer noted, “We have not seen a large
         on real-wood product sales as a result of competition from          movement toward that technology, and we continue to work
         wood-look products. Almost 21 percent reported no negative          with those products in testing to see how we can innovate
         effect, and nearly 65 percent were unsure if there had been a       and help grow the category.”
         negative impact at all. Reasons for the shift included:
                                                                             For the majority of NWFA members who answered either
            • “Alternative products were having a negative impact until      “No” or “Unsure,” the minimal impact may be a result of
              recently. We are seeing a rebound in our wood volume as        high demand for flooring products overall at the time of the
              the LVT/WPC/SPC categories have matured and their              survey. One member said, “With demand on all hard-surface
              limitations become better understood.”                         products, we actually do not feel the shift at this time.”

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 10                                                                                         9/24/2021 4:07:28 PM
FOR WHICH PRODUCT AREAS ARE YOU
                                                 EXPERIENCING EXTENDED LEAD TIMES
                                                     OR UNPREDICTABLE SUPPLY?
         Another member reported that                                             70%
                                                     Raw materials: hardwood
         their “waterproof” products were
         growing at a rapid pace, but not at
         the expense of other categories.                 Engineered flooring     55%

         THE VALUE OF                                 Solid hardwood flooring     53%
         EDUCATION IN WOOD
         FLOORING MARKETS                                          Adhesives      32%
         We asked members to share their
         thoughts on what would be most
                                                                     Subfloor     30%
         helpful to businesses looking
         to promote real wood floors
         over look-alike products.                   Transport: packaging and
                                                                                  30%
                                                        packaging accessories
         Responses included:
            • Promotion of benefits and              Raw materials: softwood      25%
              advantages in consumer
              magazines and e-news                                   Finishes     23%
            • More general education in
              publications on the advantages         Sundries and accessories     23%
              of wood and disadvantages
              of vinyl
                                                                        Tools     18%
            • High-quality images that show
              colors accurately and depict the
              true beauty of wood                                       Other     10%

         Barnes believes more time should
         be spent educating consumers and        Non-wood/Wood-look flooring      0%
         members on what it takes to make
                                                                                   10%

                                                                                             20%

                                                                                                    30%

                                                                                                           40%

                                                                                                                  50%

                                                                                                                         60%

                                                                                                                                 70%

                                                                                                                                        80%

                                                                                                                                                90%

                                                                                                                                                         100%
         a quality piece of wood flooring
         and why wood is a better option.
         “It’s an elaborate process and very
         labor-intensive. When the milling
         is better, there’s less sanding and
                                                   WHAT ARE THE PRIMARY CAUSES OF
         finishing and less time spent on              EXTENDED LEAD TIMES?
         installation. Companies could
         speed up their crews by buying                      Freight disruption   77%
         better products.” g
                                                              Labor shortages     65%

                                                  Production facility shutdowns
                                                                 or scale-backs
                                                                                  65%

                                                    Sudden increase in demand     63%
           DOWNLOAD THE
             REPORT AT                                      Decrease in supply    62%
        hardwoodfloorsmag.com
                                                              Panic purchasing    15%
                                                                                       10%

                                                                                              20%

                                                                                                     30%

                                                                                                            40%

                                                                                                                   50%

                                                                                                                           60%

                                                                                                                                  70%

                                                                                                                                          80%

                                                                                                                                                  90%

                                                                                                                                                           100%

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 11                                                                                                           9/24/2021 4:07:29 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook

                    2021 VS. 2022 EXPECTED
                        SALES GROWTH                                                                                                          20%
                                                                                                                                                            15%
                                                                                                                                                            Yes
                          Up Significantly (8%+)   22%                                                                                         No

                         Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)     55%
                                                                                                                                                       65%
                    About the Same (-2 to +2%)     20%                                                                                                Unsure

                    Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)      2%

                      Significantly Down (-8%+)    1%                                                                         HAS COMPETITION
                                                                                                                              FROM WOOD-LOOK
                                                      10%

                                                            20%

                                                                  30%

                                                                         40%

                                                                               50%

                                                                                     60%

                                                                                             70%

                                                                                                   80%

                                                                                                         90%
                                                                                                                             PRODUCTS (SUCH AS
                                                                                                                             LVT, WPC, LAMINATE)
                                                                                                                            HAD A NEGATIVE EFFECT
                                    11%                                                                                      ON YOUR REAL-WOOD
                                    Yes                 ARE "WATERPROOF"                                                      PRODUCT SALES?
                  28%                                     WOOD FLOORING
                   No                                    PRODUCTS HAVING
                                                        A NEGATIVE IMPACT
                                   61%
                                  Unsure
                                                        ON YOUR BUSINESS?

                                                            WHAT INITIATIVES WILL YOU IMPLEMENT IN
                                                            THE SECOND HALF OF 2021 AND INTO 2022?
                                                   Improve processes to become more efficient                  48%

                                                      Invest in or leverage existing technology
                                                                                      for growth
                                                                                                               49%

                                                     Add new locations/expand geographically                   47%

                                                                        Add new product categories,
                                                                                   lines or services           31%

                                                                                           Add to my team      24%
                                                                                                                 5%

                                                                                                                      10%

                                                                                                                            15%

                                                                                                                                  20%

                                                                                                                                        25%

                                                                                                                                              30%

                                                                                                                                                    35%

                                                                                                                                                          40%

                                                                                                                                                                45%

                                                                                                                                                                      50%

                                                                                                                                                                            55%

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 12                                                                                                                                       9/24/2021 4:07:33 PM
INSPIRING & EDUCATING WOOD FLOORING PROFESSIONALS

                In Print | In Person | Online | Around the World

                                                                                                 PUBLISHIN
                                                                                                          G PARTNE
                                                                                                                  RS

                                                                                                                          Access on
                                                                                                                          your mobile
                                                                                                                          device by
                                                                                                                          downloading
                                                                                                                          our app for
                                                                                                                          iOS and
                                                                                                                          Android
                                                                                                                          devices.

                                      Your news. Your way.
                                     As the official publication of the NWFA, Hardwood Floors is
                                    your trusted resource to learn more about the latest industry
                                       news, installation techniques, and business best practices.

                      RECEIVE YOUR COMPLIMENTARY SUBSCRIPTION TODAY
                                              hardwoodfloorsmag.com/subscribe

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 13                                                                            9/24/2021 4:07:33 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook    CONTRACTORS
                                              Of those surveyed, 47 percent of contractors
                                              reported a moderate increase in sales of
                                              wood flooring installation during 2020, and
                                              another 21 percent reported significant
                                              gains. Reasons for the gains included
                                              increased local building and remodeling, and
                                              higher demand for wood flooring in certain
                                              regions. Twenty-six percent of contractors
                                              reported sales to be about the same.
                                              Looking ahead to 2022 wood                  Most contractors installed wood
                                              flooring sales, contractors are             flooring purchased from wood
                                              optimistic. Around 35 percent of            flooring distributors in 2020. The
                                              contractors anticipate a moderate           percentage of flooring purchased
                                              increase in sales, while another            and supplied by the client rose from
                                              30 percent expect sales to be up            29 percent in 2019 to 35 percent
                                              significantly (8+ percent). Thirty-         in 2020. Other sources included
                                              five percent expect sales to remain         big box retailers (5 percent) and
                                              about the same. Reasons for                 independent/specialized floor
                                              anticipated growth included:                covering retailers (5 percent).
                                                • Better economy                          Plainsawn (83 percent) continues to
                                                • Increased business                      be the most-common cut of flooring
                                                  through referrals                       installed by contractors in 2021, and
                                                                                          nail-down over wood subfloors is the
                                                • Hot real estate market                  most-common installation method.
                                                • Larger projects that were
                                                  delayed are now in the pipeline

                                                  2022 EXPECTED SALES GROWTH
                                                           Up Significantly (8%+)   30%

                                                          Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)     35%

                                                      About the Same (-2 to +2%)    35%

                                                      Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)     0%

                                                       Significantly Down (-8%+)    0%
                                                                                     5%

                                                                                          10%

                                                                                                15%

                                                                                                      20%

                                                                                                            25%

                                                                                                                  30%

                                                                                                                        35%

                                                                                                                              40%

                                                                                                                                    45%

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 14                                                                                               9/24/2021 4:07:35 PM
WHAT IS THE MOST COMMON CUT OF
                    FLOORING YOU HAVE INSTALLED IN 2021?

                                                     Plainsawn

                                                     Quartersawn

                                                                     The overwhelming
                                               83%                        majority of
                                                                    contractors reported
                              17%
                                                                         experiencing
                                                                     unusually extended
                                                                        lead times and
                                                                         unpredictable
                                                                     supply for products
                                                                         including raw
                                                                     material: hardwood
                                                                      (72 percent), solid
                                                                      hardwood flooring
                                                                       (67 percent), and
                     WHICH FINISH HAVE YOU USED                          subfloors (56
                     MOST FREQUENTLY IN 2021?                           percent). “Cost
                                                                        of supplies are
                                                                    constantly changing
                                                     Water-based
                                                                      and availability is
                                                                     also an issue,” said
                                                     Oil-modified
                                                                        one contractor.
                                                     Conversion
                            5%                       varnish
                                               70%
                                                     Natural or
                             20%                     hard wax oil

                                              5%

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 15                                             9/24/2021 4:07:35 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook    CONTRACTORS
                                                When asked how the COVID-19 crisis affected business, Lenny
          WHAT ARE YOUR TOP                     Hall, president at Endurance Floor Company, said the pandemic
                                                came in stages. “When the pandemic was first recognized, it
          OPPORTUNITIES GOING                   caused a shift in the logistics of the work we were doing. There
          INTO THE SECOND HALF                  were worksites that did not allow more than 10 people on a job.
          OF 2021 AND INTO 2022?                There was a steep learning curve,” said Hall. “However, nothing
                                                ever really stopped. More people were at home wanting to update
                                                their flooring. Projects started coming our way that customers
           1.    Home remodeling
                                                had been putting off for two to five years down the road. Now, one
                                                of the issues is availability of materials.”
           2.    Custom work
                                                One contractor indicated some hesitancy on what the future
           3.    Expand geographies             has in store. “I think we are in a bubble buoyed by people being
                                                stuck at home, stimulus checks, and low interest rates. This will
           4.    Repairs                        slow down.”
                                                Regarding social distancing guidelines, 79 percent of contractors
                                                reported that it had not affected their business, with the exception
          WHAT ARE YOUR PLANS                   of longer inspection periods or customers who preferred not to
          TO BECOME MORE                        have people in their homes outside of emergencies.
          COMPETITIVE MOVING
                                                The overwhelming majority of contractors reported experiencing
          INTO THE SECOND HALF                  unusually extended lead times and unpredictable supply for
          OF 2021 AND INTO 2022?                products including raw material: hardwood (72 percent), solid
                                                hardwood flooring (67 percent), and subfloors (56 percent). “Cost
           1.    Improve social media           of supplies are constantly changing and availability is also an
                                                issue,” said one contractor.
           2.    Increase skills
                                                Almost 81 percent of contractors reported difficulty finding
           3.    Increase ad spending
                                                adequate skilled labor this year, especially experienced installers,
                                                sanders, and finishers. “People are being paid to stay home,” said
           4.    Raise prices                   one contractor. “When you do find someone, they don’t know
                                                anything and yet still want what I make as a fully skilled tech to
           5.    Update showroom                start out. The fully skilled folks currently are employed if they
                                                want to be.”
                                                Despite labor shortages and supply constraints, contractors have
                                                plans to become more competitive moving into the second half of
                                                2021 and into 2022. Plans include:
                                                  • Improving social media presence
                                                  • Increasing number of suppliers
                                                  • Updating showrooms
                                                  • Increasing advertising budget
                                                  • Continuing to expand skills and flooring knowledge
                                                  • Increasing training

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 16                                                                    9/24/2021 4:07:39 PM
Education remained top-of-mind for contractors
         this year. Eighty-five percent of respondents
                                                                                         WHAT ISSUES ARE YOU
         reported being proactive in providing leave-behind                              SEEING WITH CLAIMS?
         information and discussing proper maintenance
         with customers. Examples of educational                                            Moisture claims        50%
         materials include:
                                                                                        Maintenance claims         31%
            • Printed literature from specific finish
              manufacturers or mills of prefinished flooring                          Environmental claims         13%
              when installed
            • Manufacturer cleaning kits and instructions                      Customer expectation claims         25%
              (printed and online)
            • Access to NWFA consumer site                                                             Insects     6%
            • Written care instructions
         Educating the public on the value of wood flooring                                   Milling claims       25%
         remains an important, but challenging aspect
         of selling wood flooring. Contractors reported                                        Finish claims       25%
         obstacles in selling wood flooring such as “LVT
         being overmarketed as waterproof” or “dealing with                                 Adhesive claims        0%
         the self-researcher who has been misguided
         by floor stores and manufacturers about using                             Imported flooring claims        6%
         real solid hardwood products.” Higher material
         prices and lower availability of materials leading
         to longer lead times were reported to hamper wood                           Domestic wood claims          0%
         flooring sales.
                                                                                     Subfloor related claims       13%
         One wood flooring contractor believes
         overzealously marketed products have a tendency
                                                                                         Noisy floors claims       13%
         to guide consumer desire toward waterproof
         floor technology or engineered floors. “Education
         is difficult because there are too many players                          Installation related claims      19%
         involved, and all of them are telling a different story
                                                                                                                      10%

                                                                                                                            15%

                                                                                                                                  20%

                                                                                                                                        25%

                                                                                                                                               30%

                                                                                                                                                           35%

                                                                                                                                                                  40%

                                                                                                                                                                           45%

                                                                                                                                                                                 50%
         for their own benefit, not the client’s.”
         To that end, some contractors believe further
         education is key to the future success of wood            MOST COMMON INSTALLATION METHOD
         flooring and offered suggestions that included:
                                                                       Nail-down over wood subfloors     79%
            • “Let customers know wood flooring is a good
              value and has a longer useful life than other
              flooring choices.”                                   Glue-down over concrete substrate     11%

            • “Promote that it is a natural product that won’t                              Floating     5%
              stay in landfills forever.”
            • “Perform a study that demonstrates the long                                      Other     5%
              environmental impact of LVT’s lifecycle and
                                                                                                             10%

                                                                                                                    20%

                                                                                                                            30%

                                                                                                                                  40%

                                                                                                                                         50%

                                                                                                                                                     60%

                                                                                                                                                                 70%

                                                                                                                                                                           80%

                                                                                                                                                                                  90%

              other petroleum-based flooring products.” g

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 17                                                                                                                            9/24/2021 4:07:40 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook          CONTRACTORS

                DO YOU ANTICIPATE                                              DO YOU EXPECT
                YOUR BUYING                                                    YOUR END-MARKET
                HABITS (BY                                                     MIX TO SHIFT IN
                CHANNEL)                                                       LATE 2021 AND
                WILL           28%                                             INTO 2022?      24%
                CHANGE?         Yes                                                                                 Yes
                                                    72%                                                                            76%
                                                     No                                                                             No

                   HAVE SOCIAL                      WHAT IS THE MOST COMMON SUBFLOOR
                   DISTANCING
                   GUIDELINES
                                                             YOU INSTALL OVER?
                   CONTINUED                                          Wood panel     80%
                   TO AFFECT
                   YOUR                                                 Concrete     5%
                   BUSINESS?
                                                                Screeds/Sleepers     5%

                             21%                                    Radiant Heat     5%
                             Yes
                                                      Wood panel over concrete       5%
                                              79%
                                               No
                                                          Existing floor coverings   0%
                                                                                      10%

                                                                                            20%

                                                                                                  30%

                                                                                                        40%

                                                                                                              50%

                                                                                                                      60%

                                                                                                                            70%

                                                                                                                                  80%

                                                                                                                                        90%

                                                                                                                                               100%

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 18                                                                                             9/24/2021 4:07:42 PM
JOIN NWFA TODAY!

                             ONE MEMBERSHIP
                              MANY BENEFITS
          Being a wood flooring professional has never been more complicated than it is today. However, one
          thing that remains certain is NWFA’s commitment to its members and the hardwood flooring industry.
          From nationally recognized technical standards to savings programs on services you use regularly and
          everything in between, we’ve got you covered. Become a member today and achieve greater industry
          knowledge, networking, efficiency, and success.

                                        NWFA University                Hardwood Floors              Hands-On Training
                                                                          Magazine
                                    200+ online courses available   The trusted industry resource     Enhance your skill set

                                      Product Discounts             Installation Guidelines              NWFA Expo
                                       $8,000 in product offers      Expanded industry standards    Recorded sessions & demos

                                      Learn more at NWFA.ORG | 800.422.4556 |

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 19                                                                                     9/24/2021 4:07:42 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook                           DISTRIBUTORS
         About 12 percent of distributors reported company sales of wood flooring
         in 2020 were up significantly (8 percent or more), compared to 2019.
         An additional 40 percent                 “With the current supply chain                       distributors anticipate those initiatives continuing in
         reported a moderate increase             and lead time challenges, we                         2022, along with staggered shifts to limit exposure.
         (3-7 percent). Reasons for the           feel it is going to put pressure
         increase included:                       on supply. Although demand                           One distributor said of plans, “We still want to be the
                                                  is forecasted to be significant,                     final destination, but with more people at home doing
            • Improved market share               available supply is going to                         research online, having a stronger website and better
            • Pandemic-led building               strain it.”                                          room scenes with more accurate colors goes a long way.”
              boom                                                                                     Regarding supply-chain challenges, 83 percent of
                                                  “COVID-19 played into our
            • Homeowners using money              built-in ability to reach out and                    distributors said they were not experiencing unusually
              for improvements that may           supply samples and products                          extended lead times and unpredictable supply for any
              have otherwise been used            to people through the internet                       product. Distributors that did experience supply-chain
              for travel                          during closures,” said Craig                         delays named adhesives (73 percent) and engineered
            • Higher demand                       Dupra, president at Installers                       flooring (73 percent) as the product areas most affected
                                                  Warehouse and chairman of                            by unpredictable supply. Other products included:
         Looking ahead, 66 percent of             the board for NWFA.
         distributors remain optimistic,                                                                 • Solid hardwood flooring
         forecasting a moderate increase          The pandemic changed the                               • Sundries and accessories
         for 2022 sales, with another 18          way many distributors did
         percent anticipating significant         business, with 43 percent                              • Finishes
         gains of 8 percent or more.              increasing health and                                  • Raw materials: hardwood
                                                  sanitation measures, and 41
         Conversely, 12 percent expect            percent opting for remote work                       For distributors that have experienced extended lead
         sales to remain the same, and            environments. Thirty-seven                           times, freight disruption, sudden increase in demand,
         about 4 percent expect sales             percent of distributors limited                      and labor shortages were offered as the top reasons
         to decrease in 2022. One                 customer exposure with drive-                        for delays. “With the congested ports, lack of available
         distributor said,                        thru supply pickups. Many                            containers, and challenges with mills getting raw
                                                                                                       materials, it is adding significant transportation time and
                                                                                                       time in ports,” said one distributor.
            2022 EXPECTED SALES GROWTH                                                                 The number one concern on the minds of distributors
                                                                                                       going into 2022 is competition from local liquidators,
                       Up Significantly (8%+)   18%                                                    followed by competition from non-wood floor coverings
                                                                                                       and government regulations.
                      Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)     66%
                                                                                                       The top two opportunities for distributors going into
                 About the Same (-2 to +2%)     12%
                                                                                                       the second half of 2021 and into 2022 are end-market
                                                                                                       diversification and geographic expansion.
                 Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)      3%                                                     Other plans distributors shared for becoming
                                                                                                       competitive include focusing on luxury wood
                   Significantly Down (-8%+)    1%                                                     products, pushing for better supply availability,
                                                                                                       educating customers about longer lead times, building
                                                 10%

                                                       20%

                                                             30%

                                                                   40%

                                                                         50%

                                                                               60%

                                                                                     70%

                                                                                           80%

                                                                                                 90%

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 20                                                                                                               9/24/2021 4:07:42 PM
HALFWAY THROUGH 2021, WHAT IS
         YOUR EXPECTATION FOR FULL-YEAR                                                                              WHAT ARE YOUR TOP
                                                                                                                     OPPORTUNITIES GOING INTO
          REVENUES FOR WOOD FLOORING                                                                                 THE SECOND HALF
           COMPARED WITH 2020 LEVELS?                                                                                OF 2021 AND 2022?
                    Up Significantly (8%+)    13%
                                                                                                                     1.   End-market diversification
                  Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)       61%
                                                                                                                     2.   Geographic expansion
             About the Same (-2 to +2%)       23%
                                                                                                                     3.   E-commerce
              Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)       3%

                Significantly Down (-8%+)     0%
                                               10%

                                                     20%

                                                           30%

                                                                  40%

                                                                          50%

                                                                                      60%

                                                                                                  70%

                                                                                                          80%

                                                                                                                 relationships with more suppliers, maintaining
           IF YOU SELL NON-WOOD FLOORING                                                                         low overhead, and increasing sales team
                                                                                                                 presence at retail locations. Distributors also are
          PRODUCTS, HOW QUICKLY ARE YOUR                                                                         focused on improving inventory efficiency and
          WOOD FLOORING SALES GROWING                                                                            product mix.
           COMPARED WITH YOUR NON-WOOD                                                                           Training customers on products remains
               FLOORING SALES IN 2021?                                                                           important to distributors, with 22 percent of
                                                                                                                 distributor members hosting schools every
                 Growing more quickly than
                                              12%                                                                year. Forty-two percent of distributor members
                non-wood flooring products
                                                                                                                 have hosted and plan to host schools in the
                                                                                                                 future. Almost 58 percent of training offered
               About the same growth rate     46%
                                                                                                                 by distributor members is training through
                 Growing more slowly than                                                                        NWFA. Other kinds of training include:
                non-wood flooring products    36%
                                                                                                                   • Manufacturer training
                 We only sell wood flooring   6%                                                                   • Virtual training
                                                5%

                                                     10%

                                                           15%

                                                                 20%

                                                                        25%

                                                                                30%

                                                                                            35%

                                                                                                    40%

                                                                                                           45%

                                                                                                                   • Sales training
                                                                                                                   • Product technical training
                                                                                                                   • On-site customer training    g

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 21                                                                                                                 9/24/2021 4:07:42 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook                           DISTRIBUTORS
                                                  WILL THE PERCENTAGE OF YOUR SALES
                                                  FROM PRIVATE LABEL PRODUCTS INCREASE,
                                                  DECREASE OR STAY THE SAME IN 2022?

                                                                            3%
                                                                                                            We don't sell a
                                                           22%                                            private label brand
                                                         Increase
                                                                               44%
                                                                             Decrease
                                                          31%
                                                          Same

                                               IN 2020, HOW WERE YOUR SALES
                                               OF WOOD FLOORING COMPARED
                                                         WITH 2019?
                                                   Up Significantly (8%+)   12%

                                                  Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)     40%

                                              About the Same (-2 to +2%)    36%

                                              Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)     12%

                                               Significantly Down (-8%+)    0%
                                                                             5%

                                                                                  10%

                                                                                        15%

                                                                                              20%

                                                                                                    25%

                                                                                                          30%

                                                                                                                35%

                                                                                                                      40%

                                                                                                                            45%

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 22                                                                                       9/24/2021 4:07:44 PM
IMPROVING FOREST
          SUSTAINABILITY
          FOR FUTURE
          GENERATIONS

       The NWFA’s
       Responsible
       Procurement
       Program (RPP)
       is a joint initiative
       between                                                       NWFA member companies
       environmental                                                   certified under RPP
       groups and manufacturers committed to producing and
       promoting wood floors that come only from
       environmentally responsible sources.                                   AHF Products
       The program is unique from ALL other certification
       programs in that it encompasses ALL manufacturers’                    Anderson Tuftex
       raw materials.
       RPP products are recognized by several residential
                                                                         Mullican Flooring
       green building programs, including:
                                                                         Shaw Hardwoods
       • NAHB’s National Green Building Standard —
         more than 100,000 dwelling units certified
                                                               Sheoga Hardwood Flooring & Paneling
       • Earth Advantage — more than 27,000
         dwelling units certified
       • Build It Green — more than 20,000 homes certified

       • Collaborative for High-Performance Schools —
         more than 200 schools certified

        To learn more about the RPP Program, visit nwfa.org/manufacturing.

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 23                                                     9/24/2021 4:07:44 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook            MANUFACTURERS
         More than half of NWFA                       times,” said Kent Barnes, co-owner         with remote work, and 32 percent
         manufacturers reported sales                 of Hardwood Floors of Hillsboro.           plan to continue offering virtual
         were up significantly from                   “There’s a lot of labor involved in that   customer appointments.
         2019 to 2020. Nine percent of                process. You might see prices recede
         manufacturers said sales were                some, but they’re not going to go          The majority of manufacturers
         up somewhat (3-7 percent).                   back to where they were pre-COVID.         reported experiencing unusually
         About 68 percent said they                   There’s too much fixed cost in there.”     extended lead times and unpredictable
         increased prices significantly                                                          supply for products. “Every week,
         (more than 8 percent) in 2021,               Nearly 91 percent of manufacturers         there seems to be a new shortage of
         and about a third expect to                  surveyed said their raw materials cost     something,” one manufacturer said.
         increase prices significantly in             increased in 2021, and half expect         “Ocean shipping is a nightmare,”
         2022, with another 33 percent                those costs to continue to increase.       another reported.
         planning to increase pricing
         somewhat (3-7 percent).                      Top opportunities for manufacturers        Most also reported problems finding
                                                      in the second half of 2021 into            adequate skilled labor this year. Many
                                                      2022 include:                              deployed the same strategies as the
         Nearly 61 percent of manufacturers                                                      rest of the industry, including using
         surveyed reported they expect sales            • Improvements to operations             recruiters and increasing pay. One
         to be up significantly in 2021, and            • Product diversification                manufacturer said they’re looking
         13 percent expect sales will be up                                                      outside of their own industry, “looking
         somewhat. This year, nearly 24 percent         • End-market diversification
                                                                                                 for character traits rather than
         of manufacturers said their primary            • Geographic expansion                   industry experience.”
         sales channel was online. Many                 • E-commerce
         manufacturers said both demand and                                                      Going into 2022, manufacturers are
         prices are high, but they’re concerned         • Value-added services                   most worried about:
         about sourcing labor and materials             • New distribution channels
         to capture that demand. Several                                                           • Potential housing bubble collapse
                                                      When asked how the pandemic
         respondents report having maxed out                                                       • Supply chain challenges
                                                      changed their business operations,
         their production capacity.                   many manufacturers reported that             • Labor shortage
         Going into 2022, manufacturers are           they canceled or decreased work            To become more competitive in the
         optimistic that sales will continue to       travel, increased health and sanitation    second half of 2021 and into 2022,
         increase. Around 30 percent expect           measures, shifted to working               manufacturers said they would be
         sales to be up significantly (more than 8    remotely, and offered virtual customer     staying the course, expanding their
         percent), and nearly 35 percent expect       appointments. Most plan to continue        business into new markets, products,
         sales to be up somewhat (3-7 percent).       with increased health and sanitation       and channels, introducing automation,
                                                      measures, 40 percent plan to continue      and optimizing their inventory. g
         “We believe higher prices are going
         to stay, which will artificially raise the
         top-line sales figures,” one manufacturer        WHAT ARE YOU MOST WORRIED ABOUT
         said. Another said, “Inflation will be
         much higher than normal in the                   GOING INTO 2022?
         coming months.”
                                                          1.   Supply chain challenges             3.   Labor shortage
         “The average piece of wood flooring
         gets touched probably 25, 30 times               2.   Potential housing bubble            4.   Non-wood flooring
         and trucked probably a half a dozen                   collapse                                 competition

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 24                                                                                    9/24/2021 4:07:44 PM
IN 2021 SO FAR, PRICING FOR THE                                                                               IN 2021
                                                                                                                                                               4%
                                                                                                                                                              Same
              PRODUCTS I SELL HAS:                                                                                     HAVE RAW
           Increased Significantly (8%+)      65%                                                                      MATERIAL                          4%
                                                                                                                       COSTS IN                         Decrease
          Increased Somewhat (3 to 7%)        22%                                                                      GENERAL
                                                                                                                                               92%
                                                                                                                       INCREASED,            Increase
             About the Same (-2 to +2%)       9%
                                                                                                                       STAYED THE
       Decreased Somewhat (-3 to -7%)         4%
                                                                                                                       SAME OR
                                                                                                                       DECREASED?
         Decreased Significantly (-8%+)       0%
                                               10%

                                                     20%

                                                            30%

                                                                    40%

                                                                                50%

                                                                                            60%

                                                                                                        70%

                                                                                                                80%

        2022 EXPECTED SALES GROWTH
                                              34%
                                                                                                                       2022
                   Up Significantly (8%+)
                                                                                                                       EXPECTED             22%
                  Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)       33%                                                                      RAW                Decrease
                                                                                                                       MATERIALS
             About the Same (-2 to +2%)       33%                                                                      COSTS                           48%
                                                                                                                                         30%
                                                                                                                                                     Increase
                                                                                                                                         Same
             Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)        0%

               Significantly Down (-8%+)      0%
                                               5%

                                                     10%

                                                           15%

                                                                  20%

                                                                          25%

                                                                                      30%

                                                                                                  35%

                                                                                                          40%

                                                                                                                 45%

                                                                                                                       “The average piece of wood flooring
                     2022 EXPECTED PRICING                                                                             gets touched probably 25, 30
                                                                                                                       times and trucked probably a half a
            Increase Significantly (8%+)      32%                                                                      dozen times ... There's a lot of labor
                                                                                                                       involved in that process. You might
           Increase Somewhat (3 to 7%)        36%                                                                      see prices recede some, but they're
                                                                                                                       not going to go back to where they
             About the Same (-2 to +2%)       23%                                                                      were pre-COVID. There’s too much
                                                                                                                       fixed cost in there.”
         Decrease Somewhat (-3 to -7%)        9%
                                                                                                                                           – Kent Barnes,
           Decrease Significantly (-8%+)      0%                                                                              Hardwood Floors of Hillsboro
                                               5%

                                                     10%

                                                           15%

                                                                  20%

                                                                          25%

                                                                                      30%

                                                                                                  35%

                                                                                                          40%

                                                                                                                 45%

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 25                                                                                                                9/24/2021 4:07:44 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook                              MANUFACTURERS
         COMPARED WITH 2019, SALES OF WOOD                                                                 WHAT IS YOUR EXPECTATION FOR
         FLOORING PRODUCTS IN 2020 WERE:                                                                   FULL-YEAR 2021 SALES RESULTS?
                   Up Significantly (8%+)     54%                                                                    Up Significantly (8%+)     62%

                  Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)       8%                                                                    Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)       13%

             About the Same (-2 to +2%)       17%                                                              About the Same (-2 to +2%)       25%

             Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)        17%                                                               Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)       0%

               Significantly Down (-8%+)      4%                                                                 Significantly Down (-8%+)      0%
                                                10%

                                                      20%

                                                            30%

                                                                  40%

                                                                        50%

                                                                              60%

                                                                                    70%

                                                                                          80%

                                                                                                90%

                                                                                                                                                  10%

                                                                                                                                                         20%

                                                                                                                                                                30%

                                                                                                                                                                       40%

                                                                                                                                                                              50%

                                                                                                                                                                                      60%

                                                                                                                                                                                              70%

                                                                                                                                                                                                      80%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  90%
          DO YOU EXPECT
          TO SHIFT                                                                                               BY WHICH SALES CHANNELS
          BUSINESS                                                                                                 DO YOU GO TO MARKET?
          AMONG YOUR                           23%
          CHANNELS                             Yes                                                                                              73%
                                                                                                      Traditional wood flooring distributors
          IN 2022?
                                                                                                        General floor covering distributors     36%
                                                                  77%
                                                                   No                                   Direct to flooring-specific retailers   27%

                                                                                                                 Direct to big-box retailers    27%

                                                                                                               Direct to builders/installers    14%
          HAVE CLAIMS
          INCREASED,                                                                                      Direct to end-users/homeowners        14%
          DECREASED
          OR STAYED                                                                                                                   Online    23%
          THE SAME
                                                                                                                                                 10%

                                                                                                                                                        20%

                                                                                                                                                               30%

                                                                                                                                                                      40%

                                                                                                                                                                             50%

                                                                                                                                                                                    60%

                                                                                                                                                                                            70%

                                                                                                                                                                                                    80%

                                                                                                                                                                                                            90%

                        50%                                         50%
          IN 2021?    Increase                                    Decrease

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 26                                                                                                                                                 9/24/2021 4:07:47 PM
HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 27   9/24/2021 4:07:48 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook     RETAILERS
          In 2020, around 43 percent of retailers surveyed reported sales of wood flooring were up somewhat
          (3 percent to 7 percent) compared to 2019. Around 30 percent reported sales were about the same.

                                              Halfway through 2021, nearly 48         When asked how the pandemic
     WHAT ARE YOU MOST                        percent of respondents expect full-     has changed business operations,
                                              year revenues to be up somewhat         retailers said they increased
     WORRIED ABOUT                            (3 percent to 7 percent), and about     health and sanitation measures,
     GOING INTO 2022?                         a fifth expect revenues to be up        offered drive-thru pickups, worked
                                              significantly (more than 8 percent).    remotely, and had to conduct layoffs
                                                                                      and staggered shifts. Retailers
      1.    Economy                           Looking toward 2022, nearly 61          surveyed expect to continue with all
                                              percent of the retailers expect         these changes.
      2.    Manufacturers selling direct
                                              sales of wood flooring to be up
                                              somewhat, and 17 percent expect         Nearly three-quarters said they
      3.    Competition from local liqui-
            dators
                                              sales to be up significantly.           haven’t had problems finding
                                                                                      adequate skilled labor.
                                              “Many homeowners are renovating
                                              and building due to the pandemic,”      “We did not close the business
                                              one retailer said.                      through COVID-19,” said
     WHAT ARE YOUR TOP                                                                Winston Zheng, founder and chief
                                              Going into the second half of 2021      executive officer of Unique Wood
     OPPORTUNITIES GOING                      and 2022, retailers see their top       Floors. “We took some actions,
     INTO THE SECOND HALF                     opportunities in:                       and everybody is still at work.
     OF 2021 AND INTO 2022?                                                           We were down a little bit last
                                                •   E-commerce
                                                                                      April, but the rest of the months,
                                                •   End-market diversification        we’ve managed pretty well. Last
     1.     E-commerce
                                                •   Geographic expansion              year we were ahead of 2019, so we
     2.     End-market diversification          •   New talent                        didn’t have to move anybody for
                                                                                      any reason.”
     3.     Geographic expansion              NWFA retailers report their top         A large majority of retailers said
                                              concerns going into 2022 are the        they aren’t experiencing extended
     4.     New talent                        economy, manufacturers selling          lead times and unpredictable
                                              direct, competition from local          supply for products. The 29
                                              liquidators, competition from           percent that did were having the
                                              big-box stores, and commodity-          most difficulty with engineered
                                              level pricing.                          flooring, solid hardwood flooring,
                                                                                      and raw hardwood materials.
                                              Retailers are unsure whether            They cited lack of stock, logistics
                                              competition from wood-look              issues, labor shortages, price
                                              products such as LVT, SPC, and          increases, and shipping costs
                                              laminate have had a negative effect     as top reasons for shortages and
                                              on their real wood product sales.       delays. And the primary cause
                                              “Consumers reference more water-        of extended lead times is freight
                                              resistant, more scratch-resistant,”     disruption, followed by production
                                              one retailer said. Another said:        facility shutdowns or scale-backs.
                                              “We sell LVT as well as real wood
                                              flooring, so it is part of our line.”

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 28                                                                                  9/24/2021 4:07:53 PM
2022 EXPECTED SALES GROWTH                                                                         WHAT ISSUES ARE YOU
                                                                                                            SEEING WITH CLAIMS?
                   Up Significantly (8%+)     18%
                                                                                                               Moisture claims     10%
                  Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)       61%
                                                                                                           Maintenance claims      25%
             About the Same (-2 to +2%)       17%
                                                                                                         Environmental claims      35%
             Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)        4%
                                                                                                  Customer expectation claims      45%
               Significantly Down (-8%+)      0%
                                                                                                                        Insects    20%
                                                10%

                                                      20%

                                                            30%

                                                                  40%

                                                                        50%

                                                                              60%

                                                                                    70%

                                                                                          80%

                                                                                                                 Milling claims    20%

                                                                                                                  Finish claims    25%
                  ARE YOU EXPERIENCING ANY
                  CHALLENGES IN EDUCATING                                                                      Adhesive claims     0%
                  CONSUMERS ON THE
                  DIFFERENCES                                                                         Imported flooring claims     10%
                  BETWEEN REAL
                  WOOD AND                                                                              Domestic wood claims       0%

                  WOOD-LOOK      52%
                  FLOOR-          Yes                                                                  Subfloor related claims     0%
                                         48%
                  COVERING                No
                                                                                                                                   5%
                  PRODUCTS/                                                                                 Noisy floors claims

                  MATERIALS?
                                                                                                     Installation related claims   5%
                                                                                                                                    5%

                                                                                                                                         10%

                                                                                                                                               15%

                                                                                                                                                     20%

                                                                                                                                                           25%

                                                                                                                                                                 30%

                                                                                                                                                                       35%

                                                                                                                                                                               40%

                                                                                                                                                                                     45%

                      “We try to work to see if (customers) can put in                          don’t sell many different floor coverings. We’re very
                      the down payment so we can take their order and                           specialized in wood floors. That helped us a lot. I
                      lock the products,” said Zheng. “Since we have a                          think the stock position helped us greatly with the
                      warehouse, we can bring their order in early. We                          shortage of material.” g

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 29                                                                                                                                  9/24/2021 4:07:54 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook                RETAILERS
                 WILL THE PERCENTAGE OF YOUR SALES
                 ATTRIBUTED TO PRIVATE LABEL INCREASE,                      NWFA retailers report
                 DECREASE OR STAY THE SAME IN 2022?                           their top concerns
                                                                                going into 2022
                                                                               are the economy,
                                                                            manufacturers selling
                                                                              direct, competition
                                                65%
                                              Decrease                      from local liquidators,
                                                                               competition from
                                                                              big-box stores, and
                         9%                                We don't sell       commodity-level
                        Same
                                              13%         a private label           pricing.
                               13%                             brand
                             Increase

                  WILL THE PERCENTAGE OF YOUR SALES
                  ATTRIBUTED TO SERVICES (INSTALL,
                  REFINISHING, DESIGN, TRAINING, ETC.) INCREASE,
                  DECREASE OR STAY THE SAME IN 2022?

                                              4%
                                                           We don't sell
                             22%                          any accessories
                             Same
                                                 44%
                                               Decrease
                           30%
                         Increase

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 30                                                           9/24/2021 4:07:54 PM
WILL THE PERCENTAGE OF YOUR SALES ATTRIBUTED
                  TO ACCESSORIES (MAINTENANCE PRODUCTS,
                  SUNDRIES, ACCESSORIES, UPGRADES, ETC.)
                  INCREASE, DECREASE OR STAY THE SAME IN 2022?

                                                 4%
                                                                                 We don't sell
                                26%                                             any accessories
                                Same
                                                 39%
                                               Decrease
                          31%
                        Increase

           WHAT IS YOUR EXPECTATION FOR 2021
         FULL-YEAR REVENUES FOR WOOD FLOORING
               COMPARED WITH 2020 LEVELS?
                                  Up Significantly (8%+)   22%

                                 Up Somewhat (3 to 7%)     48%

                            About the Same (-2 to +2%)     13%

                            Down Somewhat (-3 to -7%)      17%

                              Significantly Down (-8%+)    0%
                                                             5%

                                                                  10%

                                                                        15%

                                                                              20%

                                                                                    25%

                                                                                          30%

                                                                                                35%

                                                                                                      40%

                                                                                                            45%

                                                                                                                  50%

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 31                                                                             9/24/2021 4:07:55 PM
2022
                          Industry Outlook

        SUPPLY-CHAIN
        CONSTRAINTS WARRANT
        STRONG LANGUAGE:

       “UNBELIEVABLE”
       “NIGHTMARE”
       “DISASTER”
         NWFA members report supply-chain constraints and
         extended lead times have been a major challenge
         for the industry. They’ve experienced high prices for
         shipping and materials, limited supply, delays and
         long lead times, and difficulty booking ocean freight.

         “We’re having delays unlike anything else we’ve ever seen in our
         history with products,” one distributor noted.
         At the time of the Industry Outlook survey, 41 percent of
         NWFA members reported unusually extended lead times and
         unpredictable supply, primarily in raw materials like hardwood,
         engineered flooring, solid hardwood flooring, adhesives,
         subfloor, and transport items like packaging and packaging
         accessories. In addition to material shortages, supply constraints
         also have caused delays in securing repair parts for machinery.
         Reasons include freight disruption, production facility
         shutdowns or scale-backs, labor shortages, decrease in supply,
         and a sudden increase in demand. Some respondents used words
         like “unbelievable,” “nightmare,” and “disaster” to describe the
         overall experience.
         “The supply chain saw a complete disruption due to the
         pandemic,” one respondent said. “Longer lead times and higher
         prices are the result.”
         Respondents report that ports are strained and they’re having
         difficulty with freight prices and availability. “With the
         congested ports, lack of available containers, and challenges
         with mills getting raw materials, it is adding significant time to
         transportation as well as time in ports,” one said.

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 32                                   9/24/2021 4:07:57 PM
“There’s simply not enough                                                      simply because you buy them when you can get
         freight space or container space                                                them,” said Craig Dupra, president at Installers
         on the boats,” another said.             “We’ve done quite a bit                Warehouse and chairman of the board for NWFA.
         “In some cases, there are 20             of importing in the past               “We’re scavenging every minute. We’re hunting.”
         containers waiting to be loaded,         18 years in business.
         and they’re getting a spot for                                                  Derek Swegle, founder of Habitat Hardwood
                                                  The ocean shipping
         one or two. Some of that has to                                                 Flooring, was already in a tough position in
                                                  costs have gone up                     terms of supply in his region. “There’s no
         do with the labor in the ports,          four times. So not only
         when they’ve had to work from                                                   distributor within 250 miles of where we live,
                                                  are you dealing with                   so everything we buy has to be shipped into
         home or if they were shut down
         for being sick. That has created         the two to three times                 us,” Swegle said. “We try to stock as much as
         major congestion. Add to that            price increases on the                 we can. That has been a challenge lately because
         the Suez Canal boat that was             products, but you're                   a lot was backordered. I had to order double
         sideways. It being stuck for a           also incurring additional              because the more you order the higher on the
         couple of days had an effect.”                                                  priority list you get.”
                                                  freight charges
                                                  domestically.”                      “I saw a lot of this coming a year ago,” said
         Along with this, freight and
         shipping prices significantly have                – Winston Zheng,           Kent Barnes, co-owner of Hardwood Floors
         increased. “We’ve done quite a bit                                           of Hillsboro. “Everybody had been home, and
                                                      Unique Wood Floors
         of importing in the past 18 years                                            nobody was cutting trees or skidding logs,
         in business,” said Winston Zheng,                                            doing all the things it takes to make a piece of
         founder and chief executive                                                  hardwood flooring. So, we stocked up a large
         officer of Unique Wood Floors. “The ocean shipping costs have   quantity, as much  as we can hold. That helped us.”
         gone up four times. So not only are you dealing with the two    “We try to keep everything in stock as much as we can,”
         to three times price increases on the products, but you’re also Zheng said. “And that’s weathered us through the short
         incurring additional freight charges domestically.”             supply and long lead times very well for the past eight to
         Disruption at the production level also has been a major           nine months.”
         factor. “Raw materials on the hardwood side at the sawmills        Still, there’s the challenge of keeping customers happy when
         or veneer suppliers have backed up production,” a survey
                                                                            supply is delayed or unavailable. Lenny Hall, president at
         respondent said. Part of this is due to limited supply, but it’s
                                                                            Endurance Floor Company, said, “We contacted clients ahead
         also due to supply chain-wide labor shortages.
                                                                            of time on their projects and required them to formalize the
         “We import the bulk of our product from overseas,” said            project. That deposit gets materials ordered well in advance
         Theresa Ridinger, customer relations manager at LW                 of when they might have the project done. They were very
         Flooring. “The supply chain has been challenging because           cooperative because they understood; they were listening to
         we’re not the only country dealing with the COVID-19               the same news we listened to.”
         pandemic. Sometimes plants were closed for a week or
         two weeks, and production would get behind. Sometimes              “There’s a sense among customers who are doing their home
         they can’t get the raw material. The ports are slower to           remodeling that things get delayed,” said Zheng. “Not just
         process containers so there are delays. That’s probably            from our industry, from the construction industry overall, so
         attributed primarily to a staffing shortage at the ports. Then,    they’re prepared.” g
         ocean freight rates are through the roof and that’s causing
         significant pricing pressures.”                                    Shannon Gayton and Lauren White are senior content managers
                                                                            for 3 Aspens Media, which conducted this online survey of
         To buffer their stock against the shortage, many in the industry   NWFA members and Hardwood Floors magazine readers,
                                                                            analyzed results, and produced this report. Contact
         turned to overstocking when possible. “We’re                       info@3aspensmedia.com with questions.
         forced to carry way more inventory of certain things

                                                                                                                         DOWNLOAD THE
                                                                                                                           REPORT AT
                                                                                                                       hardwoodfloorsmag.com

HFM_OctNov21_final_extended_content.indd 33                                                                                         9/24/2021 4:07:57 PM
You can also read