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Issue No.
26
JUL 2018
TO
DEC 2018
A publication of the Institute of South Asian Studies MCI (P) 055/04/2018
Imran Khan:
Captaining
the Nation
Yet Again
HIGHLIGHTS
06 State Poll Boost for the Congress
08 Bangladesh: Politics of Polls
10 The FinTech Landscape in Singapore and India – Prospects for Enhanced Collaboration
12 India-China Rivalry in the Maldives
14 Delivering a Social Agenda through the State in India
16 Ocean Diplomacy: Sri Lanka’s Quest for an Indian Ocean Identity
Contents
A Message from the Director ....................................................................................................................................................................... 03
FEATURE
Imran Khan: Captaining the Nation Yet Again ......................................................................................................................................... 04
INSIGHTS
State Poll Boost for the Congress .............................................................................................................................................................. 06
Bangladesh: Politics of Polls ........................................................................................................................................................................ 08
The FinTech Landscape in Singapore and India – Prospects for Enhanced Collaboration............................................................ 10
India-China Rivalry in the Maldives ............................................................................................................................................................. 12
Delivering a Social Agenda through the State in India ............................................................................................................................ 14
Ocean Diplomacy: Sri Lanka’s Quest for an Indian Ocean Identity ...................................................................................................... 16
ISAS EVENTS
The Bay of Bengal: History, Memory and the Future ............................................................................................................................. 18
The Global Trade War: Implications for India, China and the Region ................................................................................................. 18
Reflections on the Partition of India and Palestine after 70 years ...................................................................................................... 19
Pakistan under Imran Khan: A New Dawn? ............................................................................................................................................. 20
ASEAN-India: Commerce, Connectivity and Culture .............................................................................................................................. 20
The United States and South Asia: Assessing the New Dynamics .................................................................................................... 21
BIMSTEC at 20: Priorities and Prospects ................................................................................................................................................. 22
Indian-Singapore FinTech Cooperation: Opportunities and Challenges ............................................................................................ 23
Higher Education in Singapore ................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Switzerland in Asia: Burgeoning Links with South Asia and ASEAN .................................................................................................. 24
Emerging Technologies, Shifting Power Balances and Nuclear Stability .......................................................................................... 25
Maritime Sri Lanka: Reclaiming Indian Ocean Identity .......................................................................................................................... 25
Digital Politics: Emerging Trends in South and Southeast Asia .......................................................................................................... 26
ISAS Events Listing (July to December 2018) ......................................................................................................................................... 27
ISAS PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS
Authored and Edited Books ......................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Briefs, Insights, Working Papers and Special Reports ........................................................................................................................... 28
EDITORIAL INFORMATION
South Asia is the newsletter of the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS). © Institute of South Asian Studies
You may send your feedback and comments to: National University of Singapore
Printed in Singapore, 31 January 2019
The Editor
South Asia ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Institute of South Asian Studies
National University of Singapore No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored
29 Heng Mui Keng Terrace or transmitted in any form, for any reason or by any
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Email : isassec@nus.edu.sg embodied in articles and reviews.
2
SOUTH ASIA : ISSUE NO. 26
A Message
from the Director
PROFESSOR C RAJA MOHAN
Greetings from the Institute of South Equally surprising has been the to understanding the impact of
Asian Studies (ISAS)! peaceful transition of power in the technological disruption on the politics,
Maldives, which defeated incumbent economy and international relations
We hope the New Year has begun well President Abdulla Yameen and of South Asia. The third theme is the
for all our readers and well-wishers. If replaced him with Ibrahim Solih. Our question of geopolitical identity in
the second half of 2018 is any guide, analysis captures the increasing the sub-continent. Sri Lanka has long
2019 is going to be even more hectic impact of India-China rivalry on the presented itself as a “South Asian
at ISAS. Many critical developments in Maldives and its politics. Surprise nation”. Today, amidst the growing
South Asia during the last six months has also been the theme of elections significance of the regional waters,
of 2018 have kept my colleagues busy in some key states in the Indian Sri Lanka has begun to see itself as
analysing them. It has also been a heartland. Our analysis focuses on the an “Indian Ocean nation”. Do read the
period when ISAS has stepped up its factors behind the Bharatiya Janata essay in this issue on Sri Lanka’s quest
engagement with other institutions in Party’s defeat in the polls for the state for a maritime identity.
the National University of Singapore assemblies in Chhattisgarh, Madhya
As we look ahead to 2019, my
and beyond to develop a more Pradesh and Rajasthan.
colleagues and I are confident that
informed appreciation of a rapidly
our work on the South Asian sub-
changing sub-continent. Beyond the immediacy of the
continent will become more relevant
elections, this issue devotes attention
to the policymakers, the community
One of the key changes in the region to three very different themes. One
of businessmen and entrepreneurs,
has been the election of the flamboyant is the little understood nature of
and the civil society in Singapore
former cricketer Imran Khan as the welfare politics in Tamil Nadu and and beyond. We also hope to widen
Prime Minister of Pakistan. Our cover its long-term consequences. The the ISAS footprint and make it a real
piece for this issue profiles the persona, second is the prospect for FinTech hub for scholars and analysts of
politics and policies of the new prime collaboration between India and contemporary South Asia. We look
minister amidst the many challenges Singapore. One of the highlights of forward to your strong support in
confronting Pakistan. If Pakistan Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2019. Meanwhile, I trust you will enjoy
has opted for a fresh political face, visit to Singapore from 31 May to reading this issue. Your feedback is
Bangladesh has opted for political 2 June 2018 was the agreement to always welcome.
stability and continuity by re-electing the promote the linking of the payment
two-time incumbent, Sheikh Hasina, as systems in the two countries. Studying
the Prime Minister. We have an analysis technology policy has emerged as
in this issue on what led to Prime one of the new priorities of ISAS. We
Minister Hasina’s sweeping victory. hope to devote considerable energies
3
FEATURE
Photo courtesy of the Government of Pakistan
Imran Khan: Captaining the
Nation Yet Again
IQBAL SINGH SEVEA
Imran Khan was sworn in as the Prime proved to be a sticky wicket. Despite elite institutions — Aitchison College
Minister of Pakistan on 18 August his celebrity status, it took Khan 21 in Lahore, and the Royal Grammar
2018. Khan became a national hero years to break the hold of the two School in Worchester, England — and
when he captained the Pakistani established political parties — the graduated from Oxford University with
cricket team to victory in the 1992 Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), a degree in Philosophy, Politics, and
World Cup. He now promises to utilise and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Economics.
his leadership skills to build a Naya — and to emerge as a major player in
Pakistan (New Pakistan). the political realm. Khan began his cricket career as a
teen playing for Lahore, and went
Khan entered the political terrain in on to play county cricket in England.
1996 when he launched his political Cricketing Star and Playboy He made his international test
party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf Khan was born in 1952 to an affluent cricket debut for Pakistan in 1971.
(Pakistan Movement for Justice), Pashtun family in Lahore, Punjab. He His mastery over the craft of fast
or PTI. The political arena, however, received his formative education in bowling, coupled with his charisma
4
SOUTH ASIA : ISSUE NO. 26
and fiery temperament, led to him however, was unable to garner Khan also made a conscious effort
being appointed captain. His impact substantial support. In the 2013 to appeal to religiously and socially
on the team was profound. The team elections, his party won 35 seats in conservative sections of Pakistani
displayed a new sense of confidence the National Assembly and formed society. His often unprovoked defense
and aggression. the provincial government in Khyber of the blasphemy laws indicate that
Pakhtunkhwa. this is a calculated decision. There
Khan’s exploits on the pitch and his have also been serious accusations
matinee-idol looks led him to acquire leveled against the military of having
a huge fan following internationally. In Prime Minister Khan influenced the results in favour of the
England, where he lived for much of The upswing in Khan’s political PTI. Procedural errors on the part of
his cricketing career, he was a darling fortunes can be traced to his the Electoral Commission Pakistan,
of the paparazzi. Tabloids regularly successful agitation against the and censorship of news coverage by
published photographs of him partying previous Prime Minister of Pakistan, the establishment leading up to the
with female socialites and tales of his Nawaz Sharif, over the issue of elections, have raised questions over
numerous affairs. corruption. In April 2016, the “Panama the role of the military in ensuring the
Papers” leak revealed that eight PTI’s victory.
In 1995, Khan married Jemima off-shore companies had links with
Goldsmith, scion of the billionaire Sharif’s family. Khan launched a
financier Sir James Goldsmith. This two-pronged campaign demanding Challenges
marriage lasted nine years; in 2015, Sharif’s resignation. On one level, Given the financial crisis confronting
Khan married the British Broadcasting Khan organised mass protests that Pakistan, the need to balance the
Corporation news presenter Reham attracted tens of thousands. This huge social coalition that the PTI had
Ramzan. The second marriage lasted allowed him to capture the public to stitch together to win the election,
less than a year. Ramzan recently imagination and expand his party’s and the powerful role of the military,
authored a sensational biography grassroots reach. On another level, it remains to be seen how Khan will
in which she accuses Khan of he filed a petition in the Supreme negotiate the political wicket. The
promiscuity, drug consumption and Court, calling for a probe against immediate challenge confronting Khan
bisexuality, amongst other things. Khan Sharif and demanded that the latter and the PTI is Pakistan’s crippling
is currently married to Bushra Maneka, resign. On 28 July 2017, the Supreme current account deficit. Pakistan is
who is a spiritual healer. Khan stated Court disqualified Sharif from office. poised to approach the International
that his marriage to a Sufi who veils Occurring less than a year before Monetary Fund (IMF) for help. A
herself reflected a development in his the general elections, this decision loan from the IMF will, however, be
own views on religion and relationships. constituted a massive political victory contingent upon the imposition of
The days of parties and affairs were, for Khan. austerity measures and structural
according to him, long gone. reforms. These would contradict the
In the build-up to the 2018 elections, PTI’s campaign promises of building
the PTI’s campaign largely focused an Islamic welfare state.
Philanthropy and Politics on criticising established politicians
Following his retirement from cricket, as corrupt, and promoting Khan
Khan used his popularity to raise over as the saviour. Khan promised to
US$200 million (S$272 million) to deliver a non-corrupt government
build the Shaukat Khannum Memorial and develop an Islamic welfare state
Cancer Hospital and Research that provides educational and health
Centre. Named after his mother, who facilities to the masses. The constant
struggled with cancer, it is the largest focus on the issue of corruption had
cancer hospital in Pakistan. The cost generated widespread support. Khan
of treating nearly 75 per cent of the and his party had also generated a
patients is borne by the hospital. tremendous amount of enthusiasm
amongst sections of Pakistan that were
In 1996, Khan turned his attention disillusioned by the dynastic, provincial,
towards politics and formed the PTI. and patron-client based politics of the
He took part in the 1997 elections PML-N and the PPP. However, the PTI’s
and ran for a National Assembly seat victory itself has partly been due to its
from two constituencies but ended success in winning over a number of
up losing in both. In the subsequent politically powerful traditional elites, Associate Professor Iqbal Singh Sevea
elections of 2002, Khan was elected feudal leaders, and spiritual authorities is a Visiting Research Associate
to the National Assembly from his who had previously been aligned with Professor at ISAS. He can be contacted
hometown, Mianwali. His party, the PML-N and the PPP. at iqbal@nus.edu.sg.
5
INSIGHTS State Poll Boost for the Congress RONOJOY SEN Photo courtesy of the Indian National Congress The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party the three Hindi heartland states, the 22 per cent of the 282 seats that the (BJP) has lost elections in five Indian results represented a coming of age BJP had won in 2014. If the Assembly states, three of which were Hindi for Rahul Gandhi, who has often been poll results were to be replicated in heartland states. The opposition dismissed as a lightweight but as of 2019, the BJP’s seat tally would go Congress party was the big gainer, December 2018, has completed a year down to 31 seats in these three states. dislodging the incumbent BJP in the as the party president. While state election results are not three Hindi belt states of Chhattisgarh, necessarily always a reflection of the Madhya Pradesh (MP), and Rajasthan. The results will ring alarm bells for the general elections, the proximity of the In the two other states — Telangana BJP as it heads into general elections polls to the 2019 elections is crucial, in southern India, and Mizoram in the in early 2019. In the 2014 general as is the erosion of BJP votes across northeast — regional parties came out elections, the BJP won 62 of the 65 the board. Indeed, the past cycle of on top. Though the scale and margin parliamentary seats from Chhattisgarh, elections in these three states suggests of the Congress victory differed in MP and Rajasthan. This represented that the party that does well in the state 6
SOUTH ASIA : ISSUE NO. 26
polls carries forward the momentum to a positive impact on the party’s up the Congress party’s role as the
the general elections. electoral fortunes. Whether the BJP pivot for opposition politics. But the
will continue ratcheting up its rhetoric Congress party, too, needs to stitch
Though the results in Chhattisgarh, on Hindu nationalism or highlight together state-level alliances with
MP and Rajasthan augur well for the development and governance, as it did regional parties if it is to significantly
Congress party in 2019, the party is in 2014, remains to be seen. The party, increase its seat tally from 2014.
organisationally weak in most of the though, might find itself in a corner,
other Hindi heartland states, including given its poor record of alleviating Given its formidable election
the populous states of Uttar Pradesh rural distress and creating jobs. It is machinery, considerable war chest,
(UP) and Bihar, where even winning a likely that the Modi government will and Modi’s continuing popularity, the
handful of seats is unlikely. Outside announce big-ticket populist measures BJP still remains the frontrunner to
the heartland, the Congress party before the 2019 elections to sway form the government in 2019. Like
performed poorly in Telangana and voters. in 2014, the BJP is likely to turn the
Mizoram, which goes to show that general election into a referendum on
the party, and Rahul Gandhi, have a The results of the Assembly elections, Modi. The recent Assembly elections
long way to go. However, Congress’ particularly in the three Hindi belt have, however, given the opposition
strong showing will make it a far states, have thrown open the field for significant momentum and has
more credible fulcrum in 2019 for the 2019. The BJP will try and compensate made the BJP’s task that much more
opposition parties. for its probable losses in the Hindi difficult.
heartland with additional seats from
For the BJP, the erosion of support in eastern India and the northeast, but
Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan cut that might not be enough. The BJP
will also be looking to reach out to Dr Ronojoy Sen is a Senior Research
across the rural-urban divide, caste,
regional parties as possible allies, both Fellow and Research Lead (Politics,
and class. This was due to agrarian
before and after the 2019 elections. Society and Governance) at ISAS. He can
distress and unemployment turning
The Assembly poll results have firmed be contacted at isasrs@nus.edu.sg.
out to be burning issues in the recent
elections. The BJP was particularly hit
hard in rural constituencies, as well as
those reserved for lower castes and
tribals. This will be a cause of concern
for the BJP in 2019.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi
still remains very popular, his ability
to swing elections is under scrutiny.
Though he addressed 30-odd rallies
in the three Hindi heartland states, the
BJP’s success in those constituencies
was mixed. Modi, who benefited from
being the challenger in 2014, has to
now face the problems that come with
incumbency. The tenor of the BJP’s
2019 campaign will be decided by
what lessons Modi and his inner circle
draw from the current results.
The BJP’s poll campaign in the three
Hindi heartland states saw a distinct
rise in the pitch for Hindu nationalism
with UP’s controversial and divisive
chief minister, Yogi Adityanath,
campaigning prominently for the BJP
and facing an escalation of personal
attacks. Arguably, both did not have Photo courtesy of the Indian National Congress
7
INSIGHTS Bangladesh: Politics of Polls IFTEKHAR AHMED CHOWDHURY Photo courtesy of Jatiya Oikya The 11th Parliamentary elections in The other was the Jatiya Oikya in London. The coalition JOF is, Bangladesh were held on 30 December Front (JOF) (National Unity Front) however, being spearheaded by the 2018. The contest was between of nearly 20 parties, but mainly the octogenarian and well-respected jurist, two broad coalitions. One was the AL’s traditional rival, the Bangladesh Dr Kamal Hussain. ruling Mohajote (Grand Alliance), Nationalist Party (BNP), whose comprising around 14 parties, the Chairperson Khaleda Zia is currently The electorate of the world’s 8th largest main component being the Awami in prison on corruption charges. country numbers more than 104 million. League (AL) led by Prime Minister The Acting Chairman, her son According to the Election Commission Sheikh Hasina. Tareq Rahman, is a fugitive in exile of Bangladesh, 80 per cent of that 8
SOUTH ASIA : ISSUE NO. 26
number voted. By any standards, this Over the past months, it had indeed religious-leaning, these differences
participation was enthusiastic. In the been complaining of the absence of have eroded over time. Some
lead-up to the polls, the AL campaigned a level playing field, exacerbated by analysts will now see their ideological
on the remarkable development of violence and use of state instruments divergence as between Tweedledum
Bangladesh over its decade of rule. against its members. To these, the and Tweedledee. The electorate
Indeed, Bangladesh’s gross domestic JOF now adds allegations of ballot appeared to have opted for continuity,
product growth rate of over seven box stuffing by AL supporters, who rather than change. More so as the
per cent in 2018, and six per cent were also accused of intimidating BNP’s performance, on what was on
consistently over the past, has been JOF voters. Dr Hussain also claimed offer from past experiences, was not
praiseworthy. The party promised massive rigging. The opposition has altogether pristine.
continuity. The opposition underscored now demanded fresh polls under a
its governance deficit, alleged neutral government, a demand which So, for now, the Bangladeshi people
corruption, and suppression of dissent. the Election Commission has already seem to have spoken. The results of
The opposition’s leaders offered rejected. The JOF is threatening to the elections are known. However,
positive change. commence an agitation but all this there might well be consequences to
politicking may already have left the follow — not immediately perceptible,
The result of the polls was a landslide nation a tad exhausted. but lying well beyond the rim of the
victory for Hasina’s government. saucer.
Out of the coalition, the AL alone The politics of elections, as is the case
won 259 of the 298 contested seats. in Bangladesh, has been polarised
The Mohajote partners bagged 288 for years between the AL and the Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury is a
seats in total. The total for the JOF BNP. In the past, both alternated in Principal Research Fellow at ISAS, and is a
was a paltry seven seats, of which government. While the AL was usually former Foreign Advisor (Foreign Minister)
the BNP accounted for five. Almost perceived as secular and left-of-centre, of Bangladesh. He can be contacted at
immediately, the JOF cried foul. and the BNP both right-wing and isasiac@nus.edu.sg.
Photo courtesy of the Office of the Prime Minister of Bangladesh
9
INSIGHTS
The FinTech Landscape in
Singapore and India – Prospects
for Enhanced Collaboration
DIPINDER S RANDHAWA
On 1 June 2018, the Indian of capital, into the realm of formal Rationale for Collaboration
Department of Economic Affairs and finance. Access to finance raises the Despite differences in the levels of
the Monetary Authority of Singapore prospects for inclusion, economic development, the potential for mutually
(MAS) signed a memorandum mobility and, eventually, inclusive beneficial collaboration between India
of understanding to strengthen development. and Singapore is vast. India has a large
cooperation in financial innovation pool of skilled workers in information
between Singapore and India through The “JAM” trinity underpins and communications technology,
the establishment of a Joint Working development of the enabling and a robust and vibrant FinTech
Group. This agreement will consolidate environment for FinTech development infrastructure. Singapore offers one of
ongoing collaboration in the FinTech in India: the confluence of bank the most progressive FinTech eco-
space, and spearhead initiatives in accounts for every individual systems, with a regulatory sandbox
this rapidly evolving, innovative, and (JanDhan, or people’s wealth to expedite the entire early life cycle
promising field. accounts); a universal biometric of startups. It offers access to global
identity card (Aadhaar); and the financial institutions, and a reservoir of
increasing penetration of mobile expertise and capital-seeking profitable
FinTech Landscape phones (M), that together offer access avenues for investment.
Backed by a robust startup ecosystem to a growing portfolio of financial
encompassing a network of industry- services. Policymakers treat the
specific incubators and accelerators, digital infrastructure as a public good, Collaboration
and over 400 Fintech startups where interoperability, consumer FinTech collaboration between
spanning the financial services protection, and strong anti-money Singapore and India is spearheaded
landscape, Singapore is at the laundering safeguards have been by close engagement between the two
forefront of global initiatives in FinTech instituted. India has taken steps that governments, as well as the private
experimentation and validation. It have ultimately enabled the launch of sectors. The Network for Electronic
offers a unique regulatory sandbox pure play digital banks. Established Transfers Singapore (NETS) group in
that allows startups to develop, by DBS Bank, Digibank — India’s first Singapore and the NPCI-owned RuPay
test, and apply financial products fully digital bank — has enlisted more can now be deployed in Singapore. The
and services to assess regulatory than 1 million customers. JAM is BHIM app was launched in Singapore
compliance, before bringing them to building the foundation for the growth recently to facilitate remittances to
markets. of e-governance and delivery of public India. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
services. has been collaborating with MAS to
India stands amongst global ease cross-border funds flow.
leaders in the adoption of FinTech The Unified Payment Interface
services across a range of industry platform unveiled by the National
segments driven by mobile wallets Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), Government to Government
and innovations. FinTech offers the the first interoperable payment The potential for government to
possibility of bringing hundreds of system in the world, allows funds from government as well as private sector
millions of its financially-excluded different financial institutions to be collaboration in new technologies
citizens, including the poor, women, transferred between mobile wallets, such as blockchain, Artificial
and socially marginalised groups, and smartphones to double up as Intelligence (AI), machine learning,
as well as small businesses starved virtual debit cards. and data analytics, will catalyse
10SOUTH ASIA : ISSUE NO. 26
Photo courtesy of the Office of the Prime Minister of India
further engagement between the (AFIN) offers an excellent platform Regulatory Consultations
two countries. The benefits of to learn and share experiences and, FinTech is an evolving area where
developing AI for use in sectors such over time, increase trade and financial effective regulation and the quest for
as water supply, health, education, linkages. Affiliation with AFIN can financial stability are of paramount
and maintenance of records in real facilitate innovation and collaboration concern for both countries’ central
estate holds tremendous potential for banks. The main question, of
between financial institutions
broadening access to finance. course, is balancing regulation and
and FinTech enterprises in India
innovation, and questions of what,
and ASEAN in regards to financial whom, and when to regulate. Sharing
Financial Inclusion inclusion, blockchain, cybersecurity, experiences in regulatory technology
FinTech offers the possibility of and innovations in trade finance, with and e-governance, is important. The
bringing hundreds of millions of India’s the potential to ease India’s integration challenge of regulatory silos, as the
financially excluded citizens — the into the Regional Comprehensive bifurcation of responsibilities in India
poor, women, and other socially and Economic Partnership. India and (for example, the RBI, the Securities
economically marginalised groups — as ASEAN should also work towards an and Exchange Board of India, and the
well as SMEs starved of capital, within interoperable system. Pension Fund Regulator) demonstrate,
the ambit of formal finance. It can help is a serious problem.
millions of individuals and SMEs to
access financial services at affordable India-Singapore Entrepreneurship The growing public infrastructure
costs. Payments can be a pathway to Collaboration should breathe life into collaboration
other areas such as lending, savings, between firms in Singapore and
insurance, and wealth management. The India-Singapore Entrepreneurship India, be it a small firm or a large
Most people in India lack credit history. Bridge (InSpreneur), is a collaborative multinational with an eventual bearing
Digital payments create a credit history platform for entrepreneurs, incubators, on productivity and growth. We are in
which can be leveraged in other areas, the vast Indian diaspora, and startup an exciting phase where technology,
and also provides a platform to serve founders in Singapore and India, that innovation, enterprise, and FinTech
the unbanked and the uninsured, and has proven to be quite successful. It is have been perhaps the most dominant
link old age pensions to the poorest and areas of engagement between India
supported by industry associations in
the remotest due to links in their bank and Singapore.
both countries, including SG Innovate,
account.
Enterprise Singapore, Confederation
of Indian Industry, Federation of Indian
Regional Integration Chambers of Commerce and Industry Dr Dipinder S Randhawa is a Senior
Singapore is leading ASEAN’s efforts in and National Association of Software Research Fellow at ISAS. He can be
FinTech. The ASEAN FinTech Network and Service Companies. contacted at isasdsr@nus.edu.sg.
11INSIGHTS
Photo courtesy of the Office of the President of the Maldives
India-China Rivalry
in the Maldives
AMIT RANJAN
With the defeat of Abdulla Yameen in the improve its deteriorated relationship with its infrastructure. In September 2014,
presidential elections on 23 September the Maldives. However, Beijing cannot Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the
2018, the Maldives has reclaimed be completely sidelined from Maldivian Maldives. Soon after his visit, in December
normalcy and democratic rule. During affairs, and it is premature to claim 2014, China and the Maldives signed a
his term as the President of the country otherwise. memorandum of understanding to join
(2013-18), Yameen used his power to China’s maritime Silk Road policy. At that
silence dissenting voices and imprisoned time, China-Maldives bilateral trade was
Deepening Ties with China
prominent leaders from the opposition about US$100 million (S$135 million).
under Yameen
parties, such as former president Abdul
Gayoom. Yameen had also imposed Traditionally, the Maldives has been Chinese investments in the Maldives’
a state of emergency twice (2015 and closer to India than China. However, this infrastructure sector underpinned this
2018) to establish his hold over the started to change when then-President bilateral relationship. China is engaged in
country. On the foreign policy front, Mohamed Nasheed was forced to quit building the China-Maldives Friendship
the presidential elections were seen office in February 2012 for his policies, Bridge at the cost of around RMB1.26
by many commentators as a contest which were alleged by then opposition billion (S$253.7 million). As much as 57.5
between India and China to regain and groups and institutions as “anti-Islamic”. per cent of the project’s cost is covered
maintain their influence in the Maldives. by a grant from the Chinese government,
During the elections, it was believed that During Yameen’s tenure, the Maldives while 36.1 per cent of the cost is covered
Yameen was a pro-Chinese candidate, deepened its relationship with China at by a preferential loan from the Chinese
while the joint opposition candidate and the cost of India. This drift was primarily government. The remaining 6.4 per cent
present President of the country Ibrahim to find a supporter to his regime against is to be borne by the Maldives. China
Mohamed Solih was seen by many as a Nasheed, who was then seen as getting is also upgrading and expanding the
supporter of India. The election results support from India. Also, the Maldives Velena International Airport, and engaged
certainly comforted India as it stood to needed Chinese investments to develop in housing projects in Male. It has also
12SOUTH ASIA : ISSUE NO. 26
taken up the Hulhumalé Phase II housing Political tensions between India and Yameen’s political high handedness, it
project, and is developing a link road China in the Maldives came into the was expected that Solih would favour
between Hulhule and Hulhumalé. Further, open after Yameen declared a state of India. However, India should not become
in 2017, Yameen’s government signed a emergency in February 2018. There complacent, and should work towards
free trade agreement with China. was also a division within the Maldivian resetting its relationship with the
opposition parties on India’s role at that Maldives. In its congratulatory message
While such investment projects help time. In an opinion piece published in the to Solih on 24 September 2018, India
in the development of the Maldives, Indian daily, The Indian Express, Nasheed said that “this election marks not only
they could lead the country into a debt wrote, “It is essential that India leads the triumph of democratic forces in
trap. According to the Centre for Global the international community in forcing the Maldives, but also reflects the firm
Development, a Washington-based President Yameen to comply with the commitment to the values of democracy
think-tank, the total Chinese loan to the 1 February 2018 Supreme Court order. and the rule of law. In keeping with
Maldives is around US$1.5 billion (S$1.9 This will pave the way for genuinely our ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy, India
billion). Such a large loan to a small inclusive, free and fair elections with looks forward to working closely with
economy puts the Maldives in danger of full international monitoring.” However, the Maldives in further deepening our
getting into a debt cycle. However, the former Minister for Foreign Affairs (2013- partnership”.
Chinese Ambassador to the Maldives, 2016) and a member of a joint opposition,
Zhang Lizhong, called the investments Dunya Maumoon, said, “I believe that the On 25 September 2018, in congratulating
call by Nasheed for foreign intervention is Solih for his win, Chinese foreign ministry
“completely normal”, and has rejected any
very irresponsible”. spokesman Geng Shuang expressed
such allegations made by the then joint
his country’s willingness to work with
opposition parties which won elections in
In tune with Nasheed, a section of Indian the new government. Later, Xi, in his
September 2018.
commentators even supported the idea congratulatory message to Solih, said
of sending troops to restore normalcy that he is “willing to join hands with
China is also accused by the local people Solih to lift the comprehensive friendly
of land-grabbing in the Maldives. China in the Maldives. The Indian national
daily, The Times of India, reported that cooperative partnership between China
presently has leases on 17 Maldivian and Maldives to a new level”.
islands. Just a few days before the the Indian troops were on stand-by in
case they needed to enter the Maldives.
presidential elections, the global In the 100 days agenda, published after
Reacting against such personal opinions
investigative journalism consortium taking oath on 17 November 2018, Solih’s
and views, Ai Jun, a columnist for The
(a global network of more than 220 government, without mentioning the
Global Times, wrote in The Global Times
investigative journalists in 80 countries) country’s name, highlighted that it would
in China that, “Since Maldivian President
reported that Yameen has been a part of start re-negotiating the contracts and
Abdulla Yameen assumed office in 2013,
a multi-million dollar scam that “helped loans that have put the Maldives into
the nation has proactively interacted
developers skirt public tenders and debt. However, such a move would not
with the US, China, Saudi Arabia and
acquire dozens of islands and lagoons”. be straightforward for the debt-ridden
Pakistan, gradually heading toward(s)
more independent and balanced government. It has to also repay the
Unlike China, India was sidelined during diplomacy. This apparently irritated India. loans taken by the previous government.
Yameen’s term. In 2017, his government Perhaps New Delhi has been seeking In such a situation, the new government
suspended three local councillors an opportunity to showcase its military has limited options. It could re-negotiate
working for the Indian Ambassador to again in its ‘backyard’…If India one-sidedly some of the projects agreed upon by the
the Maldives, Akhilesh Mishra. Later, in sends troops to the Maldives, China will previous government. Another option
December 2017, an editorial in Divehi take action to stop New Delhi. India should would be to negotiate new deals with
language in the pro-Yameen newspaper not underestimate China’s opposition to other countries because India would not
Vaguthu described India as an enemy, and unilateral military intervention.” be able to match the “unparalled scale of
called on Male to find a new best friend Chinese capital”.
in China. The editorial also termed India’s The situation calmed down only
Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, as a Hindu after the emergency was lifted by the Conclusion
extremist and anti-Muslim. However, soon Maldivian government in March 2018. Yameen’s defeat in the presidential
after publication, Yameen’s government The incumbent and the opposition elections has strengthened India’s
made a statement that “the administration parties then started preparations for position in the island country. On the
would never entertain negative sentiments the September polls. In order to stop other hand, it will take time for China to
towards India, highlighting that Indian Nasheed from contesting the elections, recalibrate its relationship with the new
assistance formed an ‘invaluable the Yameen government amended the government. Having said that, it would be
contribution to the Maldives’”. electoral laws of the country. However, interesting to see how Solih’s government
the government was not aware about will manage its relationship with its two
Just a few days before the 2018 the high anti-incumbency sentiments in big neighbours and yet maintain its
presidential elections, Yameen made the country, which were expressed by the sovereignty.
a request to India to withdraw its voters on 23 September 2018.
helicopters from the airfields on the Gan
and Laamu islands of the Maldives.
Future of India and China in the Maldives Dr Amit Ranjan is a Visiting Research
The Indian government suspected that
this move was to “clear the decks for a As India extended its support to the Fellow at ISAS. He can be contacted at
Chinese air and naval presence”. opposition leaders suffering due to isasar@nus.edu.sg.
13INSIGHTS Delivering a Social Agenda through the State in India S NARAYAN One of the strengths of public policy The Congress governments focused Large, centrally-owned public sector in Tamil Nadu has been the balance of on improving infrastructure, roads units were set up, providing access development of infrastructure and the to villages, rural electrification, and to employment, technology, and skills focus on social welfare. The Dravida support to the agricultural economy, development. Munnetra Kazhakam (DMK), came to while expanding the reach of primary power in 1967 on the plank of social education and public health. There When it came to power, the DMK had reforms and equal opportunities for was a limited focus on school meal an important agenda, different from all communities, and, for the last 50 programmes, and public distribution the above. It had grown to power years, Dravidian parties have ruled of food grains. There was a focus on the promise of providing equal Tamil Nadu. During the earlier two in these years on industrialisation, opportunities for all communities decades, from 1947 to 1967, the state especially the creation of industrial in education, public employment, was ruled by the Congress party. parks for small-scale industries. and in all public services. The Photo courtesy of the Government of Tamil Nadu 14
SOUTH ASIA : ISSUE NO. 26
Photo courtesy of Dravida Munnetra Kazhakam
election plank was that the forward waste of resources, and even by the for a day’s work to every able-bodied
communities had cornered too much government of India, which refused to person. While this involved a huge
of the state’s resources, and that support some of the programmes. budget expenditure, it improved
an opportunity had to be provided money supply in the hands of the
for the backward communities to The state persisted and, indeed, all poor, and enabled them to better
catch up and have equal access. the social development parameters address their livelihood needs. It also
Significant institutional and social improved in terms of nutritional improved rural wages by setting a
changes happened in the decade status, life expectancy, infant floor to the wages paid on a daily
from 1967 to 1977. At the same time, mortality reduction, and access basis.
the government was alive to both the to education and health. Other
welfare and the development agenda. states followed, and even the Indian The criticism to this approach has
Industrial development took place at government, by 1995, had come been that it draws away public funds
an accelerated pace, promoted by round to the view and enacted a food from much-needed development
policies of the government. The scope security act, which required that expenditure like the building of
and reach of the public distribution the public distribution systems be infrastructure, especially roads,
system were expanded significantly, expanded to all states. The Supreme irrigation networks, and power
along with institutions and logistics Court ruled in favour of mid-day meals plants. Direct grants also reduce the
for procurement and distribution for all school children, and what had funds available to improve access
of food grains to all family card started as a welfare initiative in Tamil to health and education. While
members. The state moved rapidly Nadu soon became a model for state viable private sector alternatives are
forward in all developmental indices policy in all the states, and even in the available in both these areas, they are
and, by 1977, was ranked next only to central government. considerably more expensive than
Maharashtra and Gujarat. public health and public education
During the period of the United alternatives.
The next decade saw an increased Progressive Alliance government in
focus on welfare expenditure. Delhi between 2001 and 2014, there At the other end is the democratic
The mid-day meals programme was a National Advisory Council reality that regional parties wishing to
of providing a hot meal to every assisting Sonia Gandhi, then-leader remain in power find that giving away
school-going child was a massive of the Congress party. It comprised freebies to the poor and expanding
programme involving enormous a number of eminent economists direct benefit schemes is a good
manpower, logistics, and costs to and public persons who seriously approach to winning votes. From both
the state. Other programmes of free believed that, in a developing country the electoral as well as the poverty
school text books and note books, like India, where there is a high alleviation point of view, the state is
assistance for the elderly and the level of poverty, chasing economic getting more and more engaged in
widowed, and a plethora of welfare growth and gross domestic product welfare programmes.
initiatives attempted to reach the numbers alone was not enough —
poor and the underprivileged, without there had to be direct intervention to Dr S Narayan is a Visiting Senior
discriminating on the basis of caste alleviate poverty. The National Rural Research Fellow at ISAS. He is a former
or community. These massive welfare Employment Guarantee programme Chief Economic Advisor to the Prime
programmes were initially criticised was conceptualised to provide for Minister of India. He can be contacted at
by all the multilateral agencies as a a payment of 100 (less than S$2) snarayan43@gmail.com.
15INSIGHTS
Photo courtesy of Sri Lanka Navy
Ocean Diplomacy:
Sri Lanka’s Quest for an
Indian Ocean Identity
CHULANEE ATTANAYAKE
A Key Player of the Indian sub-continent. Yet, in Historically, the Indian Ocean played
Sri Lanka, known as the pearl of the recent years, Sri Lanka is seen a central part in Sri Lanka’s economy,
the Indian Ocean, is surrounded by developing two parallel identities; as politics and culture, making Sri Lanka
the world’s third largest ocean. The a South Asian state, and as an Indian a key player in the region. It was a
country’s territorial boundary extends Ocean state. Then-Prime Minister stop-over for travellers from the East
to a part of the Indian Ocean, with a Ranil Wickramasinghe, addressing and West, a port of call for maritime
continental shelf seven times more traders and mariners, and a muse for
the Indian Ocean Conference in 2017
than the land area, and an Exclusive many writers and poets. During the
in Colombo, emphasised that the
Economic Zone of up to 200 nautical early post-colonial years, Sri Lanka
Indian Ocean has shaped Sri Lankans
miles.
as a distinct people. This affirmation was a notable leader in Indian Ocean
hinted that the country is undergoing affairs, raising awareness of the
Sri Lanka has been viewed as a South
a refashioning of its identity, and that Indian Ocean and security, freedom of
Asian state, where its identity is
linked with the diversity, rich history, the new identity is centred on the navigation, and marine environment.
creaking bureaucracy, and poverty Indian Ocean.
16SOUTH ASIA : ISSUE NO. 26
In recent years, Sri Lanka’s Indian through the Resolution 2832 (XXVII) of reality. The rising competition to
Ocean identity was diluted, losing Declaration of the Indian Ocean as a take the centre stage of the Indian
the geopolitical and geo-economic Zone of Peace. Ocean brings multifaceted economic,
relevance of the Indian Ocean. The political, and security challenges,
Indian Ocean was curtailed from In retrieving its new identity, Sri Lanka yet Sri Lanka is determined to take
strategic and policy circles as is reclaiming a leadership role in advantage of the opportunity.
the protracted Sri Lankan conflict Indian Ocean diplomacy, where it is
dominated discussions. active in multiple multilateral forums The island is becoming a destination
promoting a rule-based order. It is an of choice among businesses and
Having ended the conflict, today, active member of the Indian Ocean investors who are looking to tap
the relationship between Sri Lanka Rim Association (IORA). Sri Lanka opportunities in pan-Indian Ocean
and the Indian Ocean is looked at has been vocal in establishing an trade. Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka
with a new meaning at home. The international code of conduct for wants to become the economic hub
government seeks to incorporate the military vessels traversing the Indian of the Indian Ocean by becoming the
Indian Ocean into its policies, from Ocean, through which a rule-based gateway to the sub-continent and
economic to security and foreign order will be ensured. Cognisant of connecting itself with the growing
affairs, acknowledging its context and the changing power dynamics and pan-Indian Ocean supply chain.
developing a path along it. the country’s vulnerability towards the
security, Sri Lanka believes that only a It is also aware of the challenges
rule-based order will ensure its safety brought by new developments. As
Ocean Diplomacy: Strategy for New this ocean is Sri Lanka’s primary
and security.
Identity environment, any geopolitical tension
Sri Lanka’s significant diplomatic Sri Lanka is also taking the lead in in this region will have direct impact
role in Indian Ocean affairs over regional maritime discourse, creating on the country’s security. Hence,
the years exceeds its capacity as developing a dual identity opens
a platform for local and foreign
a small island state. It was one of avenues for the country to build close
scholars, and experts in maritime
the early signatories to the first four ties with competing powers in the
and naval affairs, to discuss regional
conventions on the Law of the Sea region without offending one or the
maritime security issues. In 2010, Sri
in 1958, and has taken leadership in other, and helps Sri Lanka to remain
Lanka initiated the Galle Dialogue, a
multiple initiatives on ocean affairs. In balanced and neutral.
flagship annual international maritime
1967, Sri Lanka held the chairmanship conference, to share its expertise in
at the Sea Bed Committee, which combating maritime terrorism. In
proposed that the sea bed and ocean 2017, it hosted the second Indian
floor beyond national jurisdiction Ocean Conference in Colombo. During
should be declared the “Common the recent IORA Ministerial Meeting,
Heritage of Mankind”. The “Declaration Sri Lanka suggested holding a Sub-
of Principles Governing the Sea bed working Group meeting on maritime
and Ocean Floor, and the Sub-soil security of IORA at the sidelines of the
thereof beyond the Limits of National Galle Dialogue. Further, the Track 1.5
Jurisdiction” was negotiated under International Conference titled “Indian
Sri Lanka’s leadership, and adopted Ocean: Defining Our Future” was held
in 1970. In 1973, Sri Lanka was in Colombo in October 2018.
chosen as the President of the third
United Nations Conference of the
Law of the Seas, giving it unparalleled New Indian Ocean Identity:
recognition and acknowledgement Opportunities and Challenges
for its leadership in oceanic affairs. Sri Lanka’s biggest asset and strength
As a result, today, Sri Lanka is known is its location. As such, it was always
for its influencing role in laying the subjected to competition between
foundations for the new institutions the major powers. It was invited to
created by the 1982 Convention on be a partner in the US’ Indo-Pacific
the Law of the Sea, and for its attempt Economic Corridor, China’s Belt and
to declare the Indian Ocean, the Road Initiative, and numerous other Dr Chulanee Attanayake is a Visiting
air-space above it, and the sea-bed similar initiatives, highlighting that Research Fellow at ISAS. She can be
below it, “for all time a zone of peace” Sri Lanka cannot escape from this contacted at chulanee@nus.edu.sg.
17EVENTS
05 ISAS Public Lecture
JUL The Bay of Bengal: History, Memory and the Future
During his lecture, Professor Amrith
mentioned how, after decades of
neglect, the Bay of Bengal is now
gaining strategic and economic
importance. He also provided insights
on how Singapore, much more than
Calcutta, came to be the heart of the
Bay of Bengal as he highlighted the
increasing trend of migration across
the Bay of Bengal in the 1950s. These
historical connections, arising from the
South Asian diaspora, were reflected by
the flourishing of print culture among
the Tamil, Telugu, and Bangla speaking
diaspora who had settled in different
parts of Southeast Asia.
On 5 July 2018, Professor Sunil Amrith, Mehra Family Touching on the religious aspect of the Bay of Bengal, he
went on to elaborate on how scholarship was reviving the
Professor and Professor of History at Harvard University,
Indian Ocean as a geopolitical concept.
as well as Academic Visitor at the Asia Research Institute
at NUS, delivered an ISAS Public Lecture and discussion Professor Amrith highlighted the Bay of Bengal’s crucial role in
on “The Bay of Bengal: History, Memory and the Future”, international politics noting that the Bay of Bengal was emerging
chaired by ISAS Director Professor C Raja Mohan. as a strategic point in light of China’s Maritime Silk Road.
02 ISAS-Business China Panel Discussion
AUG The Global Trade War: Implications for India, China and the Region
On 2 August 2018, ISAS
Director Professor C Raja
Mohan chaired a panel
discussion on “The Global
Trade War: Implications
for India, China and the
Region”.
Members of the panel were
Mr Lee Yi Shyan, Chairman,
Business China; Mr Dustin
Watson, Director, Asia
Business Trade Association;
Mr Eduardo Pedrosa,
Secretary-General, Pacific
Economic Cooperation
Council; and Dr Amitendu
Palit, Senior Research Fellow
and Research Lead, ISAS.
18SOUTH ASIA : ISSUE NO. 26
Mr Lee provided a summary of the trade war thus far, Mr Watson added that the trade war rhetoric will not
sharing that it will be a double-edged sword which will hurt decrease before the United States (US) midterm elections in
both Chinese and American firms involved in China through November 2018 as it is an attempt to maintain a Republican
majority in the Senate and that it could cool down after if
the supply chain. He gave the example of Apple Inc. where
President Donald Trump maintains the House and Senate.
538 out of its 900 plants are located in China, to emphasise
how the trade war will hurt both parties. He also stressed Mr Pedrosa provided data from surveys that the Pacific
that while China would be able to ride through the war, Economic Cooperation Council has conducted showing
President Xi Jinping’s goals to be moderately developed by that the highest risk was increased protectionism. Dr Palit
2035 and a superpower by 2050 will push him to find ways focused on India, mentioning that India officially joined the
to avoid the trade war. trade war by announcing retaliatory measures on 29 items
that it imports from the US.
15 ISAS-MEI Workshop
AUG Reflections on the Partition of India and Palestine after 70 years
On 15 August 2018, ISAS jointly hosted a workshop with and transcend their differences. He expressed the necessity
the Middle East Institute (MEI) on “Reflections on the for academic enterprises to make fresh enquiries into the
Partition of India and Palestine after 70 Years” to analyse multiple dimensions of the two partitions, and renew efforts
the partitions of British India and Mandatory Palestine on to transcend negativities.
political leaderships, ideologies, laws, and institutions that
connect them. Dr Victor Kattan, MEI’s Senior Research Fellow, delivered
the introductory lecture on “What is Partition?”. He defined
Mr Bilahari Kausikan, Chairman of MEI, delivered the partition as a form of statecraft that has been employed by
welcome remarks whereby he noted that “partition” is a different actors, in different contexts, at different moments,
harsh and loaded term compared to “separation”, and cited for different reasons. He argued that, while India and
Singapore-Malaya as a successful case of “separation” Palestine are the paradigm cases of partition, they were a
whereby the two countries are not unweighted by emotional part of a broader phenomenon.
and historical baggage and complications. They get along
fairly better than India-Pakistan or Israel-Palestine. The full-day workshop included four panel discussions
involving scholars from around the world. The sessions
In his introductory remarks, Professor C Raja Mohan, were on the partition of British India, the partition of
Director of ISAS, mentioned how the consequences of Mandatory Palestine, the comparison of the partition of
both India-Pakistan and Palestine-Israel partitions were so India and Palestine, and the consequences of the partition
terrible and cataclysmic for the respective regions that the for South Asia, the Middle East and beyond.
involved states still have not been able to come to terms
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