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International Journal of Research and Review Vol.8; Issue: 3; March 2021 Website: www.ijrrjournal.com Review Paper E-ISSN: 2349-9788; P-ISSN: 2454-2237 Impact of Corona on Gold Rates Seema Mridha Assistant Professor, G.S. College of Commerce and Economics, Nagpur ABSTRACT considered a safest mode of investment not only for the big investors but also for the The corona pandemic has impacted each and households. India is the second largest gold every sphere of human life. Its impact on consumer after China. The yellow metal investment decisions can also be felt. For long saw various ups and downs in the corona term benefit and risk-free investment, gold is pandemic period which crossed Rs. 50000 always considered as a safe zone. Even small investors such as household prefer it rather per 10 grams and made a history despite investing somewhere else. With the beginning severe economic crises and recession in the of the pandemic, when the whole nation went economy. Through this study we will come into complete lockdown, many investors and to know how pandemic can pose a positive institutional investors especially from Europe impact on yellow metal. There are many and America invested huge capital in Gold reasons in investing in gold. It is simple and backed ETFs. As per the World Gold Council easy to convert into cash. It was seen review, after China, India is the second largest during the pandemic period that many consumer of gold but the demand for them people sold their gold to meet out the reduced drastically during these challenging financial crisis because many people lost times. But the price for gold reached a historic their job. Return rates of physical gold are high at Rs.53,250 per 10 gram. Gold backed ETFs and similar products (gold ETFs) had a also never too profitable if we invest in the remarkable year in 2020. Data from World Gold gold jewellery because the price of the Council, Bloomberg was studied Globally, gold jewellery also includes the making charges. ETFs had record annual net inflows of So many people instead of buying physical US$47.9bn or 877 tonnes. Gold rose 25% gold invest in gold ETF. In the 1st quarter during 2020, hitting a historical high of the rate of gold rose extremely high. It is US$2067.15/oz on August. It was found that also being noticed that how the prices of when economy was worst affected, production various stocks impacted the purchase of stopped, many people lost job, share prices gold ETFs. In the pandemic period India’s crashed, gold became very lucrative and showed GDP fell drastically, reached negative how its rate is inversely related with the digits, investors searched for safe haven. economic growth. Gold is scarce is nature, that’s why India Keywords: - Gold rates, corona pandemic, ETF imports maximum gold it requires. Even (Exchange Traded Fund) though with reduced demand the prices of gold were skyrocketing. In India, the gold INTRODUCTION rates are determined by Indian Bullion and The year 2020 was full of challenges Jewellers Association which provides daily which posed a great difficulty for the whole price which is based on: nation. Even the investors were not spared. a) International prices The whole nation went into complete b) The dollar-rupee exchange rate lockdown from March end 2020. Investors c) Taxes and profit margin who are the speculators always seek to gain As per World Gold Council sources more profit either investing in Mutual funds, there was a record gold backed ETF inflows real estate, shares or gold. Gold is always of 877t in 2020 took holdings to all time International Journal of Research and Review (ijrrjournal.com) 731 Vol.8; Issue: 3; March 2021
Seema Mridha. Impact of corona on gold rates. highs reaching holding of 3751.5 tonnes and VAT but now after the implementation of also the gold demand in India in CY20 GST the gold tax rate is 3%. stands at 252 tonnes, as compared to 496 Gnanadurai Pandithurai (2016) tonnes in the same period last year. WGC revealed that a comprehensive and simple data shows the demand for gold in Q3CY20 framework can provide the investor with stood at 86.6 tonnes, down 30% as detailed information about the gold and it compared to the same period in 2019 at will ensure a proper expectation on gold and 123.9 tonnes. Gold demand value stood at its role in a portfolio. The study also shows Rs 39510 crore during the period under that there exists a close relationship between review, down 4% as compared Rs.41300 dollar price and the gold price. The study is crore in Q3-2019. Gold demand for about predicting the future price of gold and jewellery at the global level also dropped to informing the investor about the impact of 29% year on year to 333 tonnes in Q3CY20. numerous factors that can affect the In the year 2020, the global demand for gold performance of gold in different economic came to 14% lower at 3759 tonnes, WGC environments. said that the fall is due to the coronavirus Nishit K. Dave (2016) showed us pandemic which weakened the consumer that gold can act as a better portfolio demand. Since 2009 the global demand for unpredictability and minimize losses amid the yellow metal on an annual basis slipped times of business sector fluctuations. When below the 4,000tonnes. The annual global other assets are not performing well, gold demand India also witnessed a massive fall can serve as a high quality, liquid resource. of 48% year on year to 52.8tonnes, as per It also disclosed that there are positive WGC data. It was also found that in India correlations among gold prices and crude oil and China many people invest in physical prices together with all the other key gold, but in U.S. and Europe they invest in elements. ETF (exchange traded funds). Demand Shaun K. Roache and Macro Rossi from western countries has increased a lot. (2009) examined that commodities tend to be less sensitive than financial assets – e.g., LITERATURE REVIEW crude oil, the most actively traded Dr. Puja Archana Sahu (2020) commodity futures contract, shows no studies the impact of inflation on consumer significant responsiveness to almost all behavior towards gold. According to them, announcements. The gold price is sensitive gold investment should be encouraged being to several scheduled U.S. and Euro are a easily approachable investment, when the macroeconomic announcements –including prices of real estate market are increasing. retail sales, nonfarm payrolls and inflation. Inflation has put a negative impact on the According to them, Gold’s high sensitivity gold investment also its an accessory and to real interest rates and its unique role as a shows social status. safe haven and store of value typically leads Sowjanya A.M. (2020) observed to a counter cyclical reaction to surprise that the implementation of GST made a news, in contrast to their commodities. positive impact on the gold sector. Implementation of GST has put gold market RESEARCH METHODOLOGY more transparent which led to reduction in Secondary data was used from the corruption. Customers feel GST as a published resources such as from extra burden on them, but it will lead to a newspapers, data used from World Gold corruption free economy. Though GST has Council, and other published magazines. increased the price of the gold. Before the Explanatory research methodology was implementation of GST, the gold tax rate used. A deep analysis was done on the was 2%i.e., 1% for service tax and 1% for research findings and the causes of ups and downs were observed. International Journal of Research and Review (ijrrjournal.com) 732 Vol.8; Issue: 3; March 2021
Seema Mridha. Impact of corona on gold rates. Source :World Gold Council Gold backed ETF and similar change in holdings by month International Journal of Research and Review (ijrrjournal.com) 733 Vol.8; Issue: 3; March 2021
Seema Mridha. Impact of corona on gold rates. Gold backed ETF and similar change in holdings by year International Journal of Research and Review (ijrrjournal.com) 734 Vol.8; Issue: 3; March 2021
Seema Mridha. Impact of corona on gold rates. RESULTS North American funds had inflows The above figures shows that despite of 563t(US$31.9bn, 45%AUM). Holdings record setting inflows in the first 10 months in European funds grew by 260t of 2020 inflows turned negative in (US$13.3bn, 21%). It is also seen from the November and December. North American above data that funds listed in Asia saw funds represented nearly 2/3 of global net holdings rose by 38t(US$1.9bn,49%). inflows in 2020. The above data shows that Other regions had inflows of Gold backed ETFs and similar products 16t(US$899mn, 41%). Despite dropping (gold ETFs) had a remarkable year in 2020. 12% in march, when markets were rocked Globally, gold ETFs had record by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, annual net inflows of US$47.9bn or 877 gold recovered to finish the year among the tonnes. Gold rose 25 % during 2020, hitting best- performing assets. a historical high of US$2067.15/oz on Gold demand in India was 446.4 August. tonnes in 2020, as compared with 690.4 tonnes in 2019 due to the corona which put International Journal of Research and Review (ijrrjournal.com) 735 Vol.8; Issue: 3; March 2021
Seema Mridha. Impact of corona on gold rates. lockdown and also because of high prices. observed that investors found gold as the Also total jewellery demand in India was most lucrative investment and started selling down by 42% at 315.9 tonnes when them when price of gold was utmost high. compared with 544.6 tonnes in 2019. Total annual gold supply was also REFERENCES affected and was 4%lower Year on year 1. Sahu Puja Archana, Srivastava Mudita (4633t), the biggest fall ever. (2020), “Impact of inflation on consumer During the December 2020 quarter, behaviour towards gold - A study”, Academia: An International gold demand dropped 28% y-o-y to 783.4 Multidisciplinary Research Journal, Vol.10, tonnes.It was also observed that Gold June 2020, pp.204-208 jewellery demand in Q4 fell 13% y-o-y to 2. Sowjanya A.M, Rakesh C.(2020), “Is Indian 515.9 tonnes, resulting in a 34% lower than goods and services tax (GST) impacted on in 2019. gold sector?”, Asian Journal of Management, Vol.11, Jan.2020, pp.87-91 CONCLUSIONS 3. Gnanadurai Pandithurai (2016), “ Astudy of It is seen that the economic growth international gold market and gold price of a nation and the prices of gold are behaviour”, PHD Thesis, Karunya inversely related. It is observed that when University, March 2016 4. Dr.Kumar V.S.,Dr.Joshi Shripad (2016), “ the whole nation went into complete The Gimmicks of the yellow metal an lockdown, the world economic growth came analytical study in commercial market”, to a halt. In the first quarter of the financial PHD Thesis, Shri Jagdishprasad Jhabarmal year 2020-21, India’s economy shrunk by - Tibarewala University, Feb.2016 23.9%. Major countries like US economy 5. Shaun K. Roache , Marco Rossi(2009) also shrunk by -32.9% and UK by -20.4%. “Effects of economic news on commodity Again India’s economic growth rate was - prices : Is gold just another commodity? ” 7.5% in the second quarter. Afterwards we ,IMF Working Papers, IMF, July 2009 saw a slow positive recorvery rate in the 6. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data economy with news of declaration of 7. https://indianexpress.com/article/business/c vaccine. During the initial pandemic period, ommodities/gold-prices institutional investors basically for Europe 8. https://www.financialexpress.com/market/c ommodities/covid-price-rise-impact-indian- and America, to safeguard their money gold-demand invested in Gold ETFs hugely, as it is always considered a safe haven, which How to cite this article: Mridha S. Impact of resulted in the rise in the price of gold. corona on gold rates. International Journal of Though demand for physical gold in India, Research and Review. 2021; 8(3): 731-736. reduced by more than 90%. It is also ****** International Journal of Research and Review (ijrrjournal.com) 736 Vol.8; Issue: 3; March 2021
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