HYDROGEN ROADMAP EUROPE - A sustainable pathway for the European energy transition - FCH JU
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HYDROGEN
ROADMAP
EUROPE
A sustainable pathway for the
European energy transition
February 6, 2019
PAGE 1
WHY HYDROGEN: TO REALIZE THE AMBITIOUS TRANSITION OF THE EU'S ENERGY SYSTEM,
A NUMBER OF CHALLENGES NEED TO BE RESOLVED
Mt
3,536 1,695
Power
Challenges
generation,
balancing, Achieving
buffering deep
decarbo-
nization
Managing
1,841 1,070 variable
Transportation
renewables
Meeting
customer
Heating and Retaining
power for buildings
preferences
771 EU
Industry energy
technology
1.5DS2: leadership
Industry feedstock 254 Mt to create
Others jobs and
CO2 Current CO2 Remaining CO2 wealth
emissions plan1 emissions gap emissions
in 2015 in 2050 in 2DS²
1 Emission reductions from current national commitments, energy efficiency etc. as included in the IEA "reference technology scenario"
2 DS = degree scenario
SOURCE: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2017; Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 2
ACHIEVING DEEP DECARBONIZATION OF >80% OF CO2 EMISSIONS REQUIRES HYDROGEN
Hydrogen is the best or only choice for at-scale
Challenge decarbonization of key segments, for example:
Achieving H2 TO
FUEL CELLS/
SYNFUELS FOR HEAVY
DECARBONIZE
deep
TRANSPORT AND
THE GAS GRID LONG
DISTANCES
decarboni-
zation
HIGH-GRADE ULTRA-LOW-
HEAT FOR CARBON H2 AS
INDUSTRY & FEEDSTOCK,
IN STEEL E.G., AMMONIA
PAGE 3
USING HYDROGEN IN THE GAS GRID OFFERS THREE MAJOR ADVANTAGES OVER
OTHER DECARBONIZATION SOLUTIONS FOR BUILDING HEATING
1 Heating
Full direct electrification of heating not feasible
Demand
Power Would require significant increase in power generation and grid capacity that is
Winter Summer Winter
used only in the winter
2 Compatible with existing building stock compared to use of heat pumps
H2 TO
DECARBONIZE 90% of all buildings emissions result from buildings older than 25 years
THE GAS GRID
3 Infrastructure, skills and regulations already available and ready to be leveraged
of all European households have gas heating as of today making fast
40% and convenient implementation possible
PAGE 4
EXAMPLE FOR TRUCKS: HYDROGEN FUEL CELL POWERTRAINS ARE A TECHNICALLY ADVANCED
ZERO EMISSION TECHNOLOGY AND COST COMPETITIVE FOR HEAVY TRANSPORT
Powertrain system cost, '000 EUR
FCEV powertrains for trucks
1 are cost competitive
40
30 ~100 km
BEV truck
with BEV from 100 km range 20 FCEV truck
10
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Energy capacity converted to range, km
Hydrogen refueling is 15 times faster than fast charging
2
After 10 minutes refueling/recharging time
FUEL CELLS
FOR HEAVY 90% vs. 10% of ~1000 km range
TRANSPORT
FCEV truck BEV truck
3 Recharging infrastructure ...
requires creates
H2
10-15x and flexible
less space instead of peak load
PAGE 5IN INDUSTRY, HYDROGEN PROVIDES LARGE-SCALE OPPORTUNITIES TO DECARBONIZE HIGH-
GRADE HEAT OR REPLACE CARBON-INTENSIVE INPUTS AS A FEEDSTOCK
1
Only feasible route for decarbonization of steel
Replacement of blast furnace with direct reduction process using hydrogen
2 At-scale decarbonization of high-grade heat industrial processes
HIGH-GRADE Decarbonization route compatible with current processes
HEAT FOR
INDUSTRY AND
AS FEEDSTOCK
3 Conversion of hydrogen production to ultra-low-carbon hydrogen
Decarbonization of hydrogen production where currently used – e.g., in
ammonia production, refining and petrochemical industries
PAGE 6MANAGING VARIABLE RENEWABLES REQUIRES HYDROGEN
Hydrogen is the only option to enable the transition of the
Challenge energy system – managing quadrupling renewables requires...
Managing H2
variable AT-SCALE SECTOR
COUPLING
LOW-COST
SEASONAL
LINK BETWEEN
PRODUCTION
AND DEMAND
renewables
MECHANISM ENERGY STORAGE
REGIONS
PAGE 7HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL SOLUTIONS MEET CUSTOMER PREFERENCES AND ARE CONVENIENT
Hydrogen and fuel cells are compatible with
Challenge current usage patterns and convenience due to...
Meeting
customer
NO OR FEW
SUPERIOR POTENTIAL FOR
CONSTRUCTION
RANGE AND LOWER
REFUELING TIME CHANGES REQUIRED
ENERGY COSTS IN
FOR HEATING
preferences
OF FCEVs THE LONG TERM
WITH H2
PAGE 8HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGIES ARE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EUROPE'S INDUSTRY
Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies are
Challenge an opportunity for Europe's industry as to...
Securing EU
technology
leadership to BUILD ON CURRENT
SKILLS AND
MANUFACTURING
REDUCE
DEPENDENCY ON
FOSSIL FUEL
LEVERAGE
EXISTING
INFRASTRUCTURE
create jobs CAPACITY IMPORTS
and wealth
PAGE 9TOGETHER WITH AN INDUSTRY COALITION, A HYDROGEN ROADMAP FOR EUROPE
HAS BEEN DEVELOPED
▪ Study by the FCH JU, supported by Hydrogen Europe and
17 companies and organizations along the whole value
chain of hydrogen
▪ First comprehensive quantified European perspective for
deployment of hydrogen and fuel cells in two scenarios
– Ambitious, yet realistic two-degree scenario and
business-as-usual scenario
– Long-term potential
– Roadmap with intermediate milestones
– Recommendations to kickstart
PAGE 10WHY HYDROGEN
ACROSS APPLICATIONS HYDROGEN CAN CLOSE HALF OF THE GAP TOWARDS THE 2DS
Carbon emissions gap to reach 2DS1 in
2050, Mt Segments Hydrogen decarbonization levers
1,070 562 Power generation Integration of renewables into the power
▪ Power generation, balancing, buffering
sector2
▪ 2-3 wheelers ▪ Aviation
▪ Passenger vehicles ▪ Shipping Power generation from renewable
▪ Taxis and vans ▪ Rail resources
▪ Buses and trucks
▪ Forklifts Transportation Replacement of combustion engines with
Closing FCEVs, in particular in buses and trucks,
~50% of gap ▪ Heating and power for buildings taxis and vans as well as larger passenger
▪ High-grade heat ▪ Low-grade heat
vehicles
▪ Medium-grade heat Decarbonization of aviation fuel through
Existing: New:
▪ Ammonia, methanol ▪ Steelmaking (DRI) synthetic fuels based on hydrogen
▪ Refining ▪ CCU (methanol, Replacement of diesel-powered trains and
▪ Metal processing olefins, BTX)
oil-powered ships with hydrogen fuel-cell-
powered units
Heating and Decarbonization of natural gas grid
power for through blending
508 buildings Upgrade of natural gas to pure hydrogen
grid
Industry heat Replacement of natural gas for process
heat
Industry feedstock Switch from blast furnace to DRI steel
Total gap to reach CO2 abatement Remaining Replacement of natural gas as feedstock
2DS1 in 2050 potential of gap in combination with CCU
hydrogen
1 2-degree scenario 2 Please see the chapter on renewables and power for information on the role of hydrogen as enabler of a renewable power system. The "enabled" carbon abatement from renewables is not included here and is
an additional benefit of hydrogen for decarbonization
SOURCE: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2017; Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 11WHY HYDROGEN
BESIDES CO2 ABATEMENT, DEPLOYMENT OF THE HYDROGEN ROADMAP ALSO CUTS LOCAL
EMISSIONS, CREATES NEW MARKETS AND SECURES SUSTAINABLE EMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE
2050 hydrogen vision
CO2
~24% ~560 Mt ~EUR 820bn ~15% ~5.4m
of final energy annual CO2 annual revenue reduction of local jobs (hydrogen,
demand1 abatement2 (hydrogen and emissions (NOx) equipment, supplier
equipment) relative to road transport industries)3
Including feedstock
1 Including feedstock; 2 Compared to the reference
reference technology
scenario; 3scenario
Excluding 3indirect effects
Excluding indirect effects
SOURCE: Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 12ROADMAP
HYDROGEN COULD PROVIDE UP TO 24% OF TOTAL ENERGY DEMAND, OR UP TO
~2,250 TWH OF ENERGY IN THE EU BY 2050
TWh
Final energy
14,100 11,500 9,300
demand
Thereof H2 2% 4% 6% 8% 24%
1-3 Power genera-
2,251 tion, buffering
112
4
Transportation
x7 675
5 Heating and
power for
579 buildings
780 6
x2
665 Industry energy
43 85 237
481 65 70 33 207 257
325 62 8 1 53 7
New feedstock
427 427 391 391
Business As Ambitious Business As Ambitious Existing
Usual Usual feedstock
2015 2030 2050
SOURCE: Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 13ROADMAP
HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGY EXISTS AND IS READY TO BE DEPLOYED
Ambitious scenario Business as usual scenario Start of commercialization Mass market acceptability1
Today 2020 25 30 35 40 2045
Forklifts
Taxis
Medium and
City buses large cars
4 Trams/railways
Transportation
Vans
Coaches Synfuel
Trucks (freight ships and aviation)
Small cars
Heating and mCHPs2
5
power Blended hydrogen heating
for buildings3 Pure hydrogen heating
6 Low/medium industry heat
Industry heat
High-grade industry heat
Existing: refining4, chemicals (production of ammonia, methanol, and others), metal processing
7 Industry
feedstock CCU (methanol, olefins, BTX)5
Steelmaking6
1 Power Power generation,
generation balancing, buffering
1 Defined as sales >1% within segment; 2 mCHPs sales in EU independent of fuel type (NG or H2); 3 Pure and blended H2 refer to shares in total heating demand; 4 Refining includes hydro-cracking, hydro-treating, bio-
refinery; 5 Market share refers to the amount of production that uses hydrogen and captured carbon to replace feedstock; 6 CDA process and DRI with green H2, iron reduction in blast furnaces, and other low-carbon
steel making processes using H2
SOURCE: Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 14ROADMAP
HYDROGEN PLAYS AN IMPORTANT, COMPLEMENTARY ROLE IN THE 2050 ENERGY SYSTEM
Segments Key subsegments Relative importance by 20501 Complementary decarbonization solutions
4 ▪ Large cars (fleets) and taxis 39% ▪ Battery-electric vehicles
Transportation ▪ Trucks and buses 22% ▪ Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
▪ Light commercial vehicles 30%
▪ Trains 9% ▪ Electrified trains
5 Heating and
▪ Hydrogen blending for heating 2%
▪ Electrification of heating via heat pumps
power for
▪ Pure hydrogen grids for heating ▪ Energy efficiency measures
16%
buildings ▪ Biogas/biomass
▪ Demand side and energy efficiency
6 measures
Industry
▪ High-grade heat 23% ▪ Electrification
energy
▪ Biogas/biomass
▪ Carbon capture
▪ Ultra-low-carbon hydrogen as
feedstock for For steel:
7 − Ammonia, methanol 100% ▪ Coke from biomass
Industry
− Refining 80% ▪ CCS on blast furnace
feedstock 20%
▪ Feedstock in steelmaking (DRI) For CCU:
▪ Combined with CCU in production of 30% ▪ Carbon storage
olefins and BTX
1 Power ▪ Power generation from hydrogen 2%
▪ Biogas
generation ▪ Flexible power generation 55%
▪ Post-combustion CCS
from hydrogen
▪ Batteries
1 In transportation: percent of total fleet; in heating and power for buildings: percent of total heating demand; in industry energy: percent of final energy demand; in industry feedstock: percent of total
feedstock for production; in power generation: percent of total power generation and percent of power generated from natural gas
SOURCE: Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 15ROADMAP
TO REACH THE AMBITIOUS 2050 VISION, WE PROPOSE SHORT- AND MEDIUM-TERM
MILESTONES ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS
2030 2040
One in... 12 5 …light commercial vehicles sold are FCEVs…
4 ...and one in... 22 7 …passenger vehicles sold are FCEVs.
There are... 45 '000 450 '000 …trucks and buses on the road...
...and… 570 2,000 ...diesel trains replaced with hydrogen.
A total of… 7 % 32 % …of natural gas (by volume) is replaced by hydrogen
5 ...equivalent to... 30 TWh 120 TWh
...meaning... 2 m 11 m …households are heated.
The deployment of... 250 '000 2,560 '000 …fuel cell CHPs increases energy efficiency.
7
There is... 33 % 63 % …carbon-free hydrogen production in all applications.
1 At 25% utilization; additional hydrogen is produced through SMR and as byproduct
2 Values calculated for "mixed scenario" (hydrogen production via water electrolysis and SMR/ATR with CCS)
SOURCE: Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 16ROADMAP
4
HOWEVER, THIS AMBITIOUS SCENARIO REQUIRES A JOINT ROLLOUT OF
SOLUTIONS, OTHERWISE DEPLOYMENT WILL REMAIN AT MUCH LOWER LEVELS
Sales number of vehicles in road transport (2050)
m vehicles
Sales in ambitious scenario Sales in BAU scenario x Number of required HRS (1,000 kg) in ambitious scenario
250 1,500 3,750 8,500 15,000 23,000 33,000
8.0
5.3
16x more
vehicles
3.1
1.8
1.2
11x more
0.3 0.3 0.5
0.1 vehicles 0.1 0.2
2020 25 30 35 40 45 2050
SOURCE: Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 17ROADMAP
4
CARS ARE MANUFACTURED IN THE GREATEST QUANTITIES AND ACHIEVE SIGNIFICANT
PENETRATIONS IN COMMERCIAL FLEET CATEGORIES FCEV share in respective
segment
Vehicles1, m 2030 2050
9.0 8.0
7.5 Small cars 2% 22%
Vehicles 6.0 Larger cars 5% 39%
5.3
sold per Taxis 14% 61%
4.5
year 3.1 Vans/LCVs
3.0 8% 49%
1.8 Buses
1.5 1.2 6% 45%ROADMAP
4
THE EQUIVALENT OF ~3,740 REFUELING STATIONS WOULD BE REQUIRED BY 2030,
IMPLYING INVESTMENT NEEDS OF EUR ~8.2 BN
Required large HRS1, number Current and planned HRS in Europe
HRS in operation2 Number of HRS announced and/or planned
xx Cumulative investment need, EUR billions AMBITIOUS SCENARIO until 2025
3.5 8.2 17.0 27.5
19
~15,000 5
1
1
1
3
~8,500 53
17 In total, >750
72 349 stations announced/
3 planned for 2025
1
~3,700 5
88
~1,500 139
1 10
120 15
3
Today 2025 30 35 2040
1 Equivalents of medium HRS (1,000kg daily capacity); utilization relative to steady-state 2 Indicative position
SOURCE: European Commission (2017); H2stations.org; press research; Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 19ROADMAP
5
IN THE EU OVERALL, A 10-18% SHARE OF BUILDING HEAT AND POWER COULD BE
REPLACED BY HYDROGEN IN 2050 x
Million households
x
Million households
receiving blended H2 receiving pure H2
Heating Power
Total building energy supplied by
Total building energy demand, Adoption rates H2,TWh; Heating rate, m household
TWh percent equivalents
45.2
7.2
4,857
579
4,253
3,760
3,760
3,111 7% 18%
465
2,586 7.2 13.8
206
187
1,097 1,142 1,174 2% 10%
114
20
2015 30 2050 BAU1 Ambitious BAU1 Ambitious
1 Business as usual scenario
2050 2050
SOURCE: heatroadmap.eu; Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 20ROADMAP
6
FOR INDUSTRY, HYDROGEN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A SHARE OF UP TO 23% OF
HIGH-GRADE HEAT FOR INDUSTRY IN 2050
High-grade heat Medium-grade heat Low-grade heat Power
Total industry energy demand, Adoption rates
TWh percent Total industry heat supplied by H2,TWh
3,209
2,922 237
827
769 2,345
7% 23%
681 680 156
644
543 1% 8%
1,425 1,252 53 43
920 0% 4%
48
277 257 Part of buildings heat and power
37
202 5
2015 30 2050 BAU1 Ambitious BAU1 Ambitious
1 Business as usual scenario
2050 2050
SOURCE: IEA ETP (2017), expert interviews, Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 21ROADMAP
HYDROGEN PRODUCTION WILL BE A MIX OF MOSTLY ELECTROLYSIS AND SMR/ATR WITH CCS
IN EUROPE
Water electrolysis SMR/ATR with CCS
Carbon-free production Long-term potential to In combination with carbon SMR is established and
method for hydrogen if fueled match or even beat SMR capture (CCS), carbon emissions mature technology
by renewables costs in case of low-cost are reduced significantly by up
solar and/or electrolyzer to 90%
capex decrease
Provision of sector-coupling No issues with political/ Hydrogen production method for Reliable constant
mechanism required for societal acceptance compared large scale as required for the production possible
integration of renewables to CCS industry
Decentral production taking Higher infrastructure costs for SMR is currently
load off the grid and providing natural gas and CO2 handling lowest-cost hydrogen
power at remote locations or production
points of sale (e.g., at refueling
stations)
PAGE 22ROADMAP
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY REQUIRES EUR 65 BN CUMULATIVE INVESTMENTS
AND OPENS A MARKET OF UP TO EUR 55 BN ANNUAL SALES IN EUROPE BY 2030
EUR bn Cumulative investments in
manufacturing equipment Annual revenues in Cumulative investments in hydrogen production, storage, and
(2018-2030)1 end-uses (2030)1 distribution (2018-2030)1
Supplier OEM Equipment Hydrogen
R&D and
Power 0.1 0.2 1.5 2.9 1.2 0.6 1.9 manu-
generation
facturing
Hydrogen Hydrogen Hydrogen
Transportation 5.8 9.7 16.7 7.7 distribution storage and produc-
and retail buffering tion
Buildings heat 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.9 Infra-
and power 10.6 8.4 26.5
structure
IndustryROADMAP
IN TOTAL, A MARKET OF EUR ~150 BN AND ~1 M JOBS COULD BE UNLOCKED BY 2030
2030 hydrogen vision
Jobs, ‘000 Market size, EUR billions
EU market served
Estimation of industry size
by EU industry
EU and global market potential taken EU industry
from hydrogen vision
“Fair share” of EU industry on domestic
and worldwide market derived from
EU market
industry statistics and industry
interviews
Imports Exports
Revenue and jobs multipliers estimated
from EU input-output models
BAU1 10 ~50 25 ~200 10 ~75
Ambitious scenario
Fair domestic market share for EU Ambitious 20 ~150 65 ~450 65 ~450
players (between 60% and 90%
depending on the step in the value
chain)
Fair market share for EU players in Σ ~EUR150 bn Σ ~1 m
RoW (between 10% and 25% depending
on the step in the value chain)
1 Business as usual scenario
SOURCE: Hydrogen Roadmap Europe team PAGE 24RECOMMENDATIONS
INDUSTRY, REGULATORY AND INVESTORS NEED TO ACT TOGETHER
Realistic, long-term and holistic
Gas grid for building power and heating: decarbonization pathways for all sectors
binding targets or feed-in tariffs and
modernization of regulation Joint commitment from regulators and industry
Power system: decarbonization of power Overarching Strong investment in hydrogen and fuel cell
balancing markets using electrolyzers and technology by the European industry &
regulatory mechanisms continuation and increase of research and
innovation funding
Transport: credible funding mechanism for Kickstart
infrastructure and clear industry investments deployment across
in product development
four sectors Build low-carbon Scale-up of electrolysis and CCS
Industry: regulatory targets for transition supply hydrogen
from grey to low-carbon hydrogen system
Electrolysis: incentives from gas grid
Support and enable decarbonization
additional
Development of additional hydrogen and fuel cell
opportunities CCS: support for industry-scale
demonstration projects
applications
Plans to scale-up proven applications, e.g.,
hydrogen trains, ships and mCHPs
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