HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021 - STAYMARQUIS

Page created by Anne Brady
 
CONTINUE READING
HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021 - STAYMARQUIS
Hamptons
Rental Market   www.staymarquis.com
                owners@staymarquis.com
Report 2021     631 – 301 – 2960
Season Recap
        Reflecting continued momentum from 2020, booking activity in 2021 kicked off extremely
        early in the year.

        Gross Booking Value for bookings with check-ins between Memorial Day and Labor Day (peak
        season) that were made in the first quarter of 2021 were 3.0x above 2020 levels and 1.5x above 2019
        levels, demonstrating renters’ desire to lock in summer plans earlier than years prior. New owners
        who had originally purchased properties for their own COVID safe havens only added additional
        inventory to the market. As these owners returned to their primary residences, they subsequently
        marketed their properties for rent, opening peak season availability earlier than owners traditionally
        have. This early availability aided to facilitate high booking activity in Q1 of this year.

                        Online Bookings in the Hamptons Made in Q1 2021 for MDW-LDW

                        7,000                                                       $50M
                                                                       $47M

                                                                                              Gross Booking Value ($M)
                        6,000
                                 $33M                                               $40M
                        5,000
        # of Bookings

                        4,000                                                       $30M

                                                 $16M
                        3,000
                                                                       6,251        $20M
                                 5,253
                        2,000
                                                 2,661                              $10M
                        1,000

                            -                                                        $0M
                                 2019            2020                  2021

                                # of Bookings        Gross Booking Value

        Optimism around an expeditious rollout of vaccinations combined with the reopening of restaurants
        and businesses offered a renewed sense of normalcy just in time for summer. This sense of hope
        only supplemented the steadfast booking activity showcased in Q1. As spring headed into the
        summer, booking activity seemingly then cooled off due to a few factors including: depleted
        supply, increased rental rates, and eased international travel restrictions which would allow
        potential renters to travel overseas for the first time in 18 months.

I 2 I   www.staymarquis.com                              HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021
Timeline of 2021 Booking Activity

                                                  School closure announcements
                                                      (ultimately extended)
                7,000
                          Vaccinations become available
                             across adult age range
                6,000
                                                                                  Delta variant concerns rise, represents
                          International travel                                         50% of COVID cases in NYC
                        restrictions reinstated
                5,000
# of Bookings

                4,000
                                                                                                         School reopening guidance for
                                                                                                            ‘21 - ’22 academic year
                3,000

                2,000

                1,000

                   0
                          Jan          Feb            Mar        Apr        May       Jun          Jul        Aug           Sep

         Maturation in other markets such as Upstate New York, the Berkshires, and Litchfield County –
         which have cheaper price points than the Hamptons – also shifted demand away from the
         Hamptons market mid-summer. As new rental properties emerged in these markets and
         Hamptons pricing stayed at all-time highs, this steered potential renters to search for alternative
         markets to vacation in.

         Forecasting ahead, the influx of demand, pricing, and revenue experienced over the last 18 months
         are likely to revert towards 2019 levels. Prepared with this information, owners should temper their
         expectations and take a proactive approach to these changes to generate maximum income for the
         2022 season. While rates are not anticipated to mirror 2019, pricing is expected to fall between 2021
         and 2019 levels.

                  THE MOST SUCCESSFUL OWNERS IN 2021 DISPLAYED STRATEGIES THAT
                  INCLUDED: BOOKING EARLIER IN THE YEAR, MONITORING THEIR ASSETS,
                  AND PLANNING PROACTIVELY IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGING MARKET
                  ENVIRONMENT.

                                 HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021                                              www.staymarquis.com     I 3 I
Market Overview
        Overall booking activity increased this year in both volume and value. In 2021, peak season
        market booking volume grew by ~1,400 (+8.9%) transactions compared to 2020, with an associated
        market value increase of $8.2m (+7.5%). This trend reflected lower lengths of stay -- a reversion to
        pre-pandemic levels. Higher booking volume and value, coupled with shorter stays facilitated
        higher nightly rates for owners. Even though overall nights booked decreased 8.2% vs. 2020,
        favorable rates allowed revenue per property to remain flat YoY.

              DESPITE A SHIFT IN DEMAND, INVENTORY WAS RELATIVELY STABLE AS MANY
              OWNERS CONTINUED TO RESIDE IN THEIR PROPERTIES. THESE TRENDS HIGH-
              LIGHT AN EXTENSION OF THE 2020 MARKET ENVIRONMENT AND COLLECTIVE
              SENTIMENT AROUND TRAVEL, COVID-19, AND OWNER PREFERENCES.

                                                    2019                 2020               2021
                                               MDW - LDW            MDW - LDW          MDW - LDW

          # Bookings                              23,740               15,284             16,645
            Growth                                                    (35.6%)               8.9%

          Bookings ($ Amount)                $124,895,114        $109,212,183        $117,369,259
           Growth                                                      (12.6%)               7.5%

          # Nights Booked                        126,309               99,748             91,526
            Growth                                                    (21.0%)             (8.2%)

          Avg. Rate / Nt                            $989               $1,095             $1,282
            Growth                                                      10.7%              17.1%

          # Booked Properties                      4,685                3,428              3,697
            Growth                                                    (26.8%)               7.8%

          Revenue / Property                     $26,659              $31,859            $31,747
           Growth                                                       19.5%             (0.4%)

          Nights Booked / Property                    27                   29                  25
            Growth                                                       7.9%             (14.9%)

          Avg. Duartion of Stay (# Nights)            5.3                  6.5                5.5
            Growth                                                      22.7%             (15.7%)

I 4 I   www.staymarquis.com                                 HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021
Supply
The number of properties in the Hamptons available for rent in 2021 grew slightly YoY (+7.8%) but
trailed slowly behind 2019 levels – 3,697 in 2021 vs. 4,685 in 2019.

                         # of Booked Properties in the Hamptons

                          5,000     $26,659                                                    $35,000

                                                                                                         Revenue per Property ($)
# of Booked Properties

                                                           $31,859                   $31,747
                          4,000                                                                $32,000

                          3,000                                                                $29,000

                          2,000      4,685                                                     $26,000
                                                            3,428                     3,697
                          1,000                                                                $23,000

                              -                                                                $20,000
                                     2019                   2020                      2021

                                    # of Properties          Rev. per Property ($)

Another driver of increased inventory came from former renters who turned into owners. During
peak season, a portion of this owner subset either periodically or frequently resided in their
properties. As owners in this segment seek to capitalize on this steady rental demand, supply is
expected to increase in the off-season. Further, preparation time for newly purchased homes
limited marketability of these properties, as furnishing, permitting, and improvement projects
were all delayed throughout the year.

                         EXPECTED AS OF EARLY 2022, MANY OF THESE HOMES WILL BE MARKET
                         READY, INCREASING SUPPLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD NEXT PEAK SEASON.

                                   HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021                           www.staymarquis.com                 I 5 I
Demand
        Throughout the 2021 Peak Season, there were 16,645 bookings (+8.9% vs. 2020) executed in the
        Hamptons for a Gross Booking Value of $117.5M (+7.5% vs. 2020).

                        Online Bookings in the Hamptons (MDW - LDW)

                                  $125M

                                                                                                 Gross Booking Value ($M)
                        25,000                                                          $130M

                                                                                        $125M
                        20,000
        # of Bookings

                                                   $109M                 $117M          $120M
                        15,000
                                                                                        $115M
                                  23,740
                        10,000
                                                                         16,645         $110M
                         5,000                     15,284                               $105M

                             -                                                         $100M
                                   2019            2020                   2021

                                 # of Bookings         Gross Booking Value

        The influx of bookings, compared to total Gross Booking Value, reflects a slight decrease in
        occupancy. Lower occupancy levels are an inherent risk to renting with shorter lengths of stay;
        average length of stay decreased from 6.5 nights in 2020 to 5.5 nights in 2021.

                         THIS TREND REFLECTS A BROADER SHIFT BACK TOWARD SHORTER TERM
                         BOOKINGS, AS THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LONG TERM BOOKINGS
                         – 39% FEWER TWO-TO-FOUR-WEEK BOOKINGS AND 47% FEWER BOOKINGS
                         FOR OVER A MONTH THIS YEAR, AS COMPARED TO 2020.

I 6 I   www.staymarquis.com                                 HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021
Long Term Bookings (2 weeks + ) MDW - LDW

                               9.0%

                               8.0%
Share of Total Booking Count

                               7.0%

                               6.0%             3.6%
                               5.0%

                               4.0%

                               3.0%
                                                                              1.7%

                               2.0%             4.1%

                               1.0%                                           2.3%

                               0.0%
                                              2020                            2021

                                          14-28 nights                  > 28 nights

Booking activity for check-in dates later in the year slowed over time. The number of bookings
requested in July for August and September check-ins and their associated Gross Booking Value
have both decreased YoY, 4.5% and 11.1%, respectively.

                               Online Bookings in the Hamptons made July forward
                               (August and September Check-Ins)                               Gross Booking Value ($M)

                                6,500           $35M                                   $40M
                                                                          $31M
# of Bookings

                                6,000                                                  $30M

                                                6,368
                                5,500                                     6,080        $20M

                                5,000                                                  $10M
                                                2020                      2021

                                        # of Bookings            Gross Booking Value

                                         HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021                    www.staymarquis.com       I 7 I
Pricing and Length of Stay
           Average nightly rates continued their meteoric rise increasing 17.1% in 2021 over 2020.

                            Average Rate per Night

                             $1,500                                     6.5
                                                                                                 5.5            7.0

                                                                                                                       Avg. Length of Stay (Nts)
                                                 5.3                                                            6.0

                             $1,000                                                                             5.0
                Avg. $/Nt

                                                                                                                4.0
                                                                                              $1,282            3.0
                              $500               $989                  $1,095
                                                                                                                2.0

                                                                                                                1.0

                                    $-                                                                            -
                                                 2019                  2020                     2021

                                            Avg $/Nt                          Avg LOS (Nts)

           Seasonality has been consistent with prior years. While in 2020, September was achieving peak
           season rates, 2021 activity shows that renter behavior has reverted towards pre-pandemic levels,
           where activity and pricing for September reflect a more significant drop off from peak season.

                            2021 Bookings by Month (Based on Check-in Date)

                            7,000                                                                                                                          $60M

                                                                                                                                                                  Gross Booking Value ($M)
                                                                                                                      6,082
                            6,000                                                                       5,322                                              $50M
                                                                                                5,059
        # of Bookings

                            5,000
                                                                                                                                                   4,557   $40M
                            4,000                                                    4,059
                                                                         2,546                                                                             $30M
                            3,000                              2,178                                                   $49
                                                                                                 $31    $39
                                                                                                                                                           $20M
                            2,000        1,148
                                                       1,430              $8                                                                       $20
                                                                $7                    $19                                                                  $10M
                            1,000                       $4
                                          $3
                                -                                                                                                                          $0M
                                         Jan            Feb    Mar        Apr         May       Jun      Jul          Aug                          Sep

                                          # of Bookings                   Gross Booking Value

I 8 I       www.staymarquis.com                                                  HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021
Future Expectations
A reversion to pre-COVID off-season booking trends is expected to extend into October. Owners
who opened off-season dates earlier, however, have been able to use lead time to their advantage
achieving higher nightly rates than owners who decided to open fall dates towards the end of the
summer. September bookings executed within one week of check-in post-LD had a 14% lower
average nightly price, as compared to those executed six to eight weeks early ($836 / night vs. $972
/ night); the same is true for October.

                            Post-LD September                                 October

 Lead Time           Booking Dollars     Avg. Nightly Rate     Booking Dollars      Avg. Nightly Rate

 Less than 1 Week      $1,490,554              $836                  $0

 1 - 2 Weeks            $860,012               $888                $16,698                $757

 2 - 4 Weeks           $1,560,920              $932                $614,416              $800

 4 - 6 Weeks           $1,264,314              $968               $740,479                $826

 6 - 8 Weeks            $947,345               $972               $784,276                $874

 8 - 12 Weeks          $1,190,825              $979               $825,337                $859

Evaluating pricing through the lens of its key drivers – 1) demand at the individual renter level, 2) size
of renter pool, and 3) market level inventory – it is expected that future nightly pricing will revert to
lower levels as each one of these key drivers will individually slide backwards. Collectively, these
drivers will produce a compounding, negative effect. As vaccination rates have increased, renters
are becoming more comfortable with traveling, dampening comparisons to 2020 behavior and the
notion of “needing to get out of the house”. Further, as borders open, potential renters are expected
to increasingly opt for fly-time locations versus those within driving distance. This mentality towards
travel creates market-level travel decisions that are expected to have a negative impact on demand
to the Hamptons, relative to the last year. As owners who have been living in or improving their
properties re-open them for bookings, this increased supply will also create a drag on pricing.

      AS A RESULT, BOOKINGS EXECUTED NOW FOR PEAK SEASON 2022 ARE
      LIKELY TO COME IN AT HIGHER RATES – ANY OWNER WHO PLANS ON
      MARKETING THEIR PROPERTY FOR NEXT SUMMER SHOULD OPEN
      AVAILABILITY AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

                    HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021                                  www.staymarquis.com   I 9 I
2021 StayMarquis Highlights
         In the News:
              We were recognized by INC5000 for the second year in a row, #343 Fastest Growing Private
              Company in the Country and #4 in the Travel & Hospitality Sector

         Enhanced Services:
              Rolled out Home Vision, our tech-enabled property management service, currently with
              over 40 properties enrolled
              Newly launched “Pricing Analytics Dashboard” (PAD), available to all owners on our platform
                   This dashboard provides real-time, data driven pricing recommendations for owners
                   and their properties
              Newly launched Advisory Services for prospective buyers, helping existing and future
              owners source buying opportunities and understand realizable income levels for potential
              purchases

         As always, please do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions about the rental market,
         need a full-service solution to renting your home, or need property management services.

              For owners, please email owners@staymarquis.com

              For travelers or travel agents, please email travel@staymarquis.com

              For brokers, please email broker@staymarquis.com

         We hope you find this analysis helpful and hope to hear from you soon!

         The StayMarquis Team

I 10 I   www.staymarquis.com                           HAMPTONS RENTAL MARKET REPORT 2021
You can also read