Governor's Statement - October 9, 2020 - October 9, 2020 The newly appointed ...
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Governor’s Statement - October 9, 2020
The newly appointed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with
Dr. Ashima Goyal, Professor Jayanth R. Varma and Dr. Shashanka Bhide
as external members met on 7th, 8th and 9th October, 2020 in its first
meeting and the 25th under the monetary policy framework that was
instituted in June 2016. I welcome the new members and thank them for
their valuable contributions to the setting and conduct of monetary policy
in India. I take this opportunity to thank our teams in the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) for their analytical support and logistic assistance.
2. The MPC evaluated domestic and global macroeconomic and
financial conditions and voted unanimously to leave the policy repo rate
unchanged at 4 per cent. It also decided to continue with the
accommodative stance of monetary policy as long as necessary – at least
during the current financial year and into the next year – to revive growth
on a durable basis and mitigate the impact of COVID-19, while ensuring
that inflation remains within the target going forward. The Marginal
Standing Facility (MSF) rate and the Bank rate remain unchanged at 4.25
per cent. The reverse repo rate stands unchanged at 3.35 per cent.
3. Let me take this opportunity to briefly review the state of the
economy and its prospects. I have always dared to be an optimist,
believing firmly in the ability of humankind to overcome the pandemic. In
the months gone by, when COVID-19 raged in fury across the world, our
hopefulness might have appeared impudent, like a flame flickering amidst
a gathering storm. Today, there is a turn in the wind, which suggests that
it is not imprudent to dream of a brighter tomorrow even in the bleakest of
times. As Dr. A.P.J Abdul Kalam, our visionary former President said:“You have to dream before your dreams can come true…A dream is not
that which you see while sleeping, it is something that does not let you
sleep.”
Charting the Recovery
4. After the steep decline into which the global economy plunged in the
second quarter of 2020, global economic activity appears to have
rebounded sequentially in the third quarter, but unevenly among and
within economies. Improvement in manufacturing, labour markets and
retail sales powered strong recoveries in some countries; whereas in
others, a rise in new infections prompted a slower pace of unlocking or re-
imposition of restrictions which, in turn, stalled the upturn. Generally,
investment has remained in retrenchment while consumption and exports
have started to improve. Massive policy support across all countries has
prevented a deeper downslide, providing a floor underneath employment,
household incomes and businesses. Financial conditions continue to
remain benign.
5. The Indian economy is entering into a decisive phase in the fight
against the pandemic. Relative to pre-COVID levels, several high-
frequency indicators are pointing to the easing of contractions in various
sectors of the economy and the emergence of impulses of growth. Rather
than enumerating them, I have, in the interest of time, set them out in an
Annex to this statement. By all indications, the deep contractions of
Q1:2020-21 are behind us; silver linings are visible in the flattening of the
active caseload curve across the country. Barring the incidence of a
second wave, India stands poised to shrug off the deathly grip of the virus
and renew its tryst with its pre-COVID growth trajectory.
26. In this environment, the focus must now shift from containment to
revival. Undeterred by the pandemic, the rural economy looks resilient.
Kharif sowing has already surpassed last year’s acreage as well as the
normal sown area. Improved soil moisture conditions, along with healthy
reservoir levels, have brightened the outlook for the rabi season. Early
estimates suggest that food grains production is set to cross another
record in 2020-21. Job creation under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural
Employment Guarantee Act (MNREGA) has provided incomes and
employment in rural areas. Meanwhile, migrant labour is returning to work
in urban areas, and factories and construction activity are coming back to
life. This is also reflected in rising levels of energy consumption and
population mobility. In cities, traffic intensity is rising rapidly; online
commerce is booming; and people are getting back to offices. The mood
of the nation has shifted from fear and despair to confidence and hope.
7. Some of this optimism is being reflected in people’s expectations. In
the September 2020 round of the RBI’s survey, households expect
inflation to decline modestly over the next three months, indicative of hope
that supply chains are mending. Our projections indicate that inflation
would ease closer to the target by Q4:2020-21. Our other surveys, also
conducted in September, indicate that consumer confidence is turning
upbeat on the general economic situation, employment and income over
a one year ahead horizon. While the current assessment of the overall
business situation remains in contraction in Q2, it has moved up from a
low in Q1. Forward-looking business expectations are optimistic on the
overall business situation, production, order books, employment, exports
and capacity utilisation.
8. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for
September 2020 rose to 56.8, its highest mark since January 2012,
3supported by acceleration in new orders and production. The services PMI
for September at 49.8 remained in contraction but has risen from 41.8 in
August. These expectations are also reflected in our growth projections
which suggest that GDP growth may break out of contraction and turn
positive by Q4.
9. There is currently an animated debate about the shape of the
recovery. Will it be V, U, L, or W? More recently, there has also been talk
of a K-shaped recovery. In my view, it is likely to predominantly be a three-
speed recovery, with individual sectors showing varying paces, depending
on sector-specific realities. Sectors that would ‘open their accounts’ the
earliest are expected to be those that have shown resilience in the face of
the pandemic and are also labour-intensive. Agriculture and allied
activities; fast moving consumer goods; two wheelers, passenger vehicles
and tractors; drugs and pharmaceuticals; and electricity generation,
especially renewables, are some of the sectors in this category. In several
of these areas, reforms such as in agricultural marketing and value chains
encompassing cold storage, transport and processing; changes in labour
laws; and creation of capacity for production and distribution of vaccines
have already opened up new vistas for fresh investment to step in.
10. The second category of sectors to ‘strike form’ would comprise
sectors where activity is normalising gradually. The third category of
sectors would include the ones which face the ‘slog overs’, but they can
rescue the innings. These are sectors that are most severely affected by
social distancing and are contact-intensive.
11. The modest recovery in various high-frequency indicators in
September 2020 could strengthen further in the second half of 2020-21
with progressive unlocking of economic activity. Agriculture and allied
4activities could well lead the revival by boosting rural demand.
Manufacturing firms expect capacity utilisation to recover in Q3:2020-21
and activity to gain some traction from Q3 onwards. Both private
investment and exports are likely to be subdued, especially as external
demand is still anaemic. For the year 2020-21 as a whole, therefore, real
GDP is expected to decline by 9.5 per cent, with risks tilted to the
downside. If, however, the current momentum of upturn gains ground, a
faster and stronger rebound is eminently feasible.
Financial Market Guidance
12. Over the last few weeks, there has been some disconnect between
the rationale underlying the RBI’s debt management and monetary
operations on the one hand, and expectations in the market, on the other.
I thought I should take this opportunity to address these issues squarely
so that market participants and the RBI share a common set of
expectations, which, in turn, should engender orderly market conditions.
13. As the monetary policy authority with the responsibilities for
development and regulation of financial markets and the management of
public debt, the RBI has prioritised the orderly functioning of markets and
financial institutions, easing of financing conditions and the provision of
adequate system-level as well as targeted liquidity. This is important from
the point of view of smooth and seamless transmission of monetary policy
impulses as well as the completion of market borrowing programmes of
the centre and states in a non-disruptive manner with a normal evolution
of the yield curve. Since February 2020, the RBI has taken a series of
measures in this direction. The RBI stands ready to undertake further
measures as necessary to assure market participants of access to liquidity
and easy financing conditions.
514. Notwithstanding an augmented market borrowing programme for
2020-21, the issuances for the first half of the year have been seamlessly
managed both for the centre and the states. The weighted average cost
of borrowings by the central government during the first half of 2020-21 at
5.82 per cent is the lowest in the last 16 years. The weighted average
maturity of the outstanding stock of the centre has also been the highest
so far. The RBI has assured that the borrowing programme of the centre
and states for rest of 2020-21 will be completed in a non-disruptive
manner without compromising on price and financial stability. In pursuit of
this objective, the limit for Ways and Means Advances (WMA) for the
centre has been kept higher at ₹1.25 lakh crore compared to ₹35,000
crore in H2 of the previous year. Similarly, the 60 per cent increase in
WMA limit for states in the first half of 2020-21 has been extended for a
further period of 6 months till March 31, 2021.
15. Market participants should be assured that in keeping with the
monetary policy stance announced today, the RBI will maintain
comfortable liquidity conditions and will conduct market operations in the
form of outright and special open market operations. In response to
feedback from market participants, the size of these auctions will be
increased to ₹20,000 crore. It is expected that the market participants will
respond positively to this initiative.
16. Yields in the government securities (g-sec) market, both primary
and secondary segments, also need to evolve in alignment with the
comfortable liquidity conditions. This is important for those segments of
the financial markets that rely on the g-sec yield curve as a benchmark for
pricing financial instruments so as to benefit from the easy financing
conditions engendered by the RBI’s policy measures and operations.
617. Financial market stability and the orderly evolution of the yield curve
are public goods and both market participants and the RBI have a shared
responsibility in this regard. The augmented borrowing programme for
2020-21 has been necessitated due to the exigencies imposed by the
pandemic in the form of the fiscal stimulus and the loss of tax revenue.
While this has imposed pressures on the market in the form of expanded
supply of paper, the RBI stands ready to conduct market operations as
required through a variety of instruments to assuage these pressures,
dispel any illiquidity in financial markets and maintain orderly market
conditions. Market participants, on their part, need to take a broader time
perspective and display bidding behaviour that reflects a sensitivity to the
signals from the RBI in the conduct of monetary policy and debt
management. We look forward to cooperative solutions for the borrowing
programme for the second half of the year. It is said that it takes at least
two views to make a market, but these views can be competitive without
being combative.
18. In this context, it is appropriate that I set out our assessment of
underlying inflation dynamics and the outlook. Abstracting from the period
April-May, 2020 when imputations imposed a break in the CPI inflation
series, headline inflation has moved up from March 2020 levels and has
persisted above the tolerance band of the target. Our assessment is that
it will remain elevated in the September print, but ease gradually towards
the target over Q3 and Q4. Our analysis suggests that supply disruptions
and associated margins/mark-ups are the major factors driving up
inflation. As supply chains are restored, these wedges should dissipate.
Meanwhile, aggregate demand remains subdued and there is evidence of
considerable resource slack. Large excess supply conditions characterise
food grains and horticulture production, and the outlook for agriculture is
7bright. Crude prices remain range-bound. The MPC has hence decided to
look through the current inflation hump as transient and address the more
urgent need to revive growth and mitigate the impact of COVID-19. This
has provided the space for continuing with the accommodative stance with
forward guidance as set out in the MPC’s resolution.
Additional Measures
19. Against this backdrop and to provide impetus towards reviving the
economy, certain additional measures are being announced today. These
measures are intended to (i) enhance liquidity support for financial
markets; (ii) regulatory support to improve the flow of credit to specific
sectors within the ambit of the norms for credit discipline; (iii) provide a
boost to exports; and (iv) deepen financial inclusion and facilitate ease of
doing business by upgrading payment system services.
(i) Liquidity Measures
(a) On Tap TLTRO
20. The focus of liquidity measures by the RBI will now include revival of
activity in specific sectors that have both backward and forward linkages,
and multiplier effects on growth. Accordingly, it has been decided to
conduct on tap TLTRO with tenors of up to three years for a total amount
of up to ₹1,00,000 crore at a floating rate linked to the policy repo rate.
The scheme will be available up to March 31, 2021 with flexibility with
regard to enhancement of the amount and period after a review of the
response to the scheme. Liquidity availed by banks under the scheme has
to be deployed in corporate bonds, commercial papers, and non-
convertible debentures issued by entities in specific sectors over and
above the outstanding level of their investments in such instruments as
on September 30, 2020. The liquidity availed under the scheme can also
be used to extend bank loans to these sectors. Moreover, banks that had
8availed of funds earlier under targeted long-term repo operations (TLTRO
and TLTRO 2.0) will be given the option of reversing these transactions
before maturity. In view of the borrowing requirements of the centre and
states in the second half of 2020-21 and the likely pick-up in demand for
credit as the recovery gathers strength, on tap TLTROs are intended to
enable banks to conduct their operations smoothly and seamlessly
without being hindered by illiquidity frictions. The objective is to ensure
that liquidity in the system remains comfortable.
(b) SLR Holdings in Held to Maturity Category
21. On September 1, 2020 the RBI increased the investments permitted
to be classified as Held to Maturity (HTM) from 19.5 per cent to 22 per
cent of NDTL in respect of SLR securities acquired on or after September
1, 2020 up to March 31, 2021. In order to provide certainty to banks as
regards their investments and to foster orderly market conditions while
ensuring congenial financing costs, it has been decided to extend the
dispensation of the enhanced HTM limit of 22 percent up to March 31,
2022 for securities acquired between September 1, 2020 and March 31,
2021. It is expected that banks will be able to plan their investments in
SLR securities in an optimal manner.
(c) Open Market Operations (OMOs) in State Development Loans (SDLs)
22. In order to impart liquidity to SDLs and thereby facilitate efficient
pricing, it has been decided to conduct open market operations (OMOs)
in SDLs as a special case during the current financial year. This would
improve secondary market activity and rationalize spreads of SDLs over
central government securities of comparable maturities. This measure,
along with the extension of HTM till March 2022, should ease concerns
about illiquidity and absorptive capacity for the total government borrowing
in the current year.
9(ii) Export Support: Review of system-based automatic Caution
Listing of Exporters
23. Exports have been adversely impacted by the pandemic-related
contraction in external demand. In this environment, it is crucial to provide
flexibility to exporters in the realisation of export proceeds and to empower
them to negotiate better terms with overseas buyers. In order to facilitate
the same, and make the caution-listing process exporter-friendly and
equitable, it has been decided to discontinue the system-based automatic
caution-listing. The RBI will henceforth undertake caution-listing on the
basis of case-specific recommendations of the Authorised Dealer (AD)
banks.
(iii) Regulatory Measures
24. At the current juncture, the financial sector has a crucial role in
leading the nascent economic revival. It is in this context that the RBI is
announcing certain measures aimed at catalysing augmented credit flows
to the productive sectors of the economy.
(a) Revised Regulatory Limits for Retail Portfolio of Banks
25. Under the extant framework, the maximum aggregated retail
exposure to one counterparty should not exceed the absolute threshold
limit of ₹5 crore. In order to facilitate higher credit flow to this segment,
which mainly consists of individuals and small businesses (i.e. with
turnover of upto ₹50 crore), and in harmonization with the Basel
guidelines, it has been decided to increase this threshold to ₹7.5 crore in
respect of all fresh as well as incremental qualifying exposures. This
measure is expected to expand credit flow to small businesses.
10(b) Rationalisation of Risk Weights on Individual Housing Loans
26. Under the extant regulations, differential risk weights are applicable
to individual housing loans, based on the size of the loan as well as the
loan-to-value ratio (LTV). In recognition of the role of the real estate sector
in generating employment and economic activity, it has been decided to
rationalise the risk weights and link them to LTV ratios only for all new
housing loans sanctioned up to March 31, 2022. This measure is expected
to give a fillip to the real estate sector.
(iv) Financial Inclusion
Review of the Co-origination Model
27. In 2018, the RBI put in place a framework for co-origination of loans
by banks and a category of Non Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs)
for lending to the priority sector, subject to certain conditions. Based on
the feedback received from stakeholders, it has been decided to extend
the scheme to all NBFCs, including HFCs, in respect of all eligible priority
sector loans, and allow greater operational flexibility to the lending
institutions. This “Co-Lending Model” is expected to leverage the
comparative advantages of banks and NBFCs in a collaborative effort,
and improve the flow of credit to the unserved and underserved sectors
of the economy.
(v) Payment and Settlement Systems
(a) Round-the-Clock Availability of Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS)
System
28. In December 2019, the RBI made available the National Electronic
Funds Transfer (NEFT) system on a 24x7x365 basis and the system has
been operating smoothly since then. In order to facilitate swift and
seamless payments in real time for domestic businesses and institutions,
it has been decided to make available the RTGS system round the clock
11on all days from December 2020. India will be among very few countries
globally with a 24x7x365 large value real time payment system. This will
facilitate innovations in the large value payments ecosystem and promote
ease of doing business.
(b) Perpetual Validity for Certificate of Authorisation (CoA) issued to
Payment System Operators (PSOs)
29. Under the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007 the RBI
currently gives on tap authorisation to payment system operators (PSOs)
for limited periods of up to five years. In order to obviate licensing and
business uncertainty for PSOs, it has been decided to grant authorisation
for all PSOs (new applicants as well as existing PSOs) on a perpetual
basis, subject to certain conditions. This will reduce compliance costs and
create a climate conducive for investment activities, increased
employment, and infusion of new talent and technologies into value
chains.
Conclusion
30. COVID-19 has tested and severely stretched our resources and our
endurance. Our travails are not over yet and a renewed rise in infections
remains a serious risk. We have, however, come far on an un-travelled
road, with self-belief and the courage of hope. We will reach deep into our
fortitude and inner strength to overcome whatever formidable challenges
COVID-19 may unleash going forward. If we have the resolve to be
steadfast till we emerge victorious, I am confident we will muster the forces
needed to subdue the pandemic. In the words of Mahatma Gandhi, and I
quote"...if I have the belief that I can do it, I shall surely acquire the
12capacity to do it…" 1. Against all odds, we shall strive and revive. Thank
you. Stay safe and stay well. Namaskar.
1
The Collected Works of Mahatma Gandhi (Electronic Book), New Delhi, Publications Division,
Government of India, 1999, Volume 79.
13Annex: High Frequency Indicators - as on October 8, 2020
February 2020 = 100 unless specified otherwise
Sr.
Indicators Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
No.
1 Agriculture / Rural demand
Domestic Sales of tractors* 100 41 15 76 89 101 137
Two wheelers Sales* 100 69 0 20 72 94 104
Three wheelers Sales* 100 64 0 7 29 33 30
Agriculture Export* 100 78 63 88 95 109 100
Fertiliser Sales* 100 80 135 105 93 107 96
Agriculture Credit (Outstanding) 100 100 100 99 100 101 101
MGNREGA work demand
100 93 60 168 201 144 109 109
(households)
2 Industrial Production
Index of Industrial Production* 100 79 42 65 82 88
IIP: Manufacturing* 100 77 33 61 82 88
IIP: Capital Goods* 100 68 9 40 69 83
IIP: Infrastructure & Construction
100 75 15 60 78 87
Goods*
IIP: Consumer Durables Goods* 100 66 5 33 67 80
IIP: Consumer Non-Durables Goods* 100 78 53 91 114 109
Eight Core Industries (ECI) Index* 100 88 60 76 83 88 85
ECI: Steel* 100 78 18 63 75 92 90
ECI: Cement* 100 73 14 71 83 81 74
Electricity Demand* 100 95 82 99 101 108 105 108
Production of Automobiles
Passenger Vehicles* 100 67 0 11 43 72 84
Two wheelers* 100 77 0 17 59 87 105
Three wheelers* 100 69 0 37 43 39 58
Production of tractors* 100 52 0 37 104 92 98
3 Construction
Steel Consumption* 100 82 20 58 79 105 94 101
Cement production* 100 73 16 71 82 80 74
4 Transport
Automobiles sales* 100 65 0 19 67 88 98
Passenger vehicles sales* 100 53 0 14 47 74 86
Domestic air passenger traffic* 100 66 0 3 18 18 29
Domestic air cargo* 100 66 7 17 49 58 63
International air cargo* 100 70 24 42 61 71 72
Freight traffic net tonne kilometre* 100 81 60 70 84 87 91 102
Port Cargo* 100 92 78 73 84 86 88 94
Toll Collection: Volume 100 77 9 50 74 79 88 100
Petroleum consumption* 100 81 50 77 86 86 79
5 Domestic trade
GST E-way bill 100 71 15 45 76 85 86 100
GST revenue 100 93 31 59 86 83 82 91
14Sr.
Indicators Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
No.
6 External Trade
Merchandise Exports 100 77 37 69 79 85 82
Merchandise Imports 100 83 46 59 56 76 79
Non-Oil Non-Gold Imports 100 82 50 75 63 81 78
Services Exports 100 102 93 95 96 96
Services Imports 100 100 84 90 90 91
7 Payment and Settlements Indicators (Volume)
RTGS 100 89 41 68 90 94 88
8 Monetary, Banking and financial aggregates
Credit outstanding 100 103 102 101 102 102 101 102
Bank Deposits 100 102 103 105 104 106 106 107
Life insurance first year premium 100 137 36 74 156 124 146 137
Non-life insurance premium 100 113 0 0 100 122 126
M3 100 102 103 105 105 107 107 108
Reserve Money 100 102 102 105 107 107 107 108
CP: Monthly Outstanding 100 86 104 106 98 94 93 105
CD: Monthly Outstanding 100 93 97 86 65 56 49
FPI Net (US$ million) 1271 -15924 -1961 -973 3441 451 6662 -157
MF Investment - Equity (INR crore) 9863 30131 -7966 6523 -502 -9195 -8400 -3982
MF Investment - Debt (INR crore) 18026 -16190 -9795 10699 41365 31898 24494 16009
Corporate Bond Issuance (INR crores) 80555 75734 54741 84871 70536 48122 58419
9 PMI
PMI: Manufacturing (>50 indicates
54.5 51.8 27.4 30.8 47.2 46.0 52.0 56.8
growth over previous month)
PMI: Services (>50 indicates growth
57.5 49.3 5.4 12.6 33.7 34.2 41.8 49.8
over previous month)
PMI: Composite (>50 indicates growth
57.6 50.6 7.2 14.8 37.8 37.2 46.0 54.6
since previous month)
10 Employment
CMIE Unemployment rate (%) 7.8 8.8 23.5 21.7 10.2 7.4 8.4 6.7
* indicates seasonally adjusted data.
Sources: CMIE, CEIC, NSO, MOSPI, RBI, SEBI, FIMMDA
Below pre-Covid level Normalisation / recovery of activity
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