Global State of Small Business - A look at the beginning of the recovery in 2021, with insights on women-led and minority-led SMBs - About Facebook
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SEPTEMBER 2021 REPORT Global State of Small Business A look at the beginning of the recovery in 2021, with insights on women-led and minority-led SMBs
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 Executive Summary There are signs that a global recovery from Asia (26%) have fallen more slowly and remain the COVID-19 pandemic may be underway. consistently higher than in other regions. Vaccination programs and the easing of restrictions have provided causes for hope for Similarly, the proportion of SMBs reporting many after an unprecedented health crisis and higher sales in the past 30 days compared to a economic shock. However, many countries face year ago has increased consistently, from 16% new or ongoing waves of COVID-19, driven by in May 2020 to 28% in July 2021. However, a the Delta variant, and small and medium-sized majority (52%) continue to report lower sales. businesses (SMBs) in particular continue to face The share of SMBs reporting a reduction in many unique challenges. employment due to the pandemic has also risen since the start of 2021, from 30% to 36%. To this end, the Global State of Small Business Report series aims to provide information that can help us better measure and understand the health of SMBs and the SMB economy across the globe. In this edition, we focus on the extent of COVID-19’s impact on SMBs and, in doing so, provide information that can facilitate policy 18% discussions about how to best support SMBs. This latest iteration delivers insights from a survey in July and August 2021 of more than 35,000 SMB leaders across 30 countries and Closure rates among SMBs have fallen territories. It investigates the effects of the 6 percentage points globally, down from pandemic on these businesses’ performance, 24% to 18% since the start of 2021. how they have adapted to the current circumstances and SMB leaders’ expectations for the future. It also looks at the impacts of the pandemic on women-led SMBs globally and minority-led SMBs in the US. The study finds a clear continuation of many challenges but also some signs of a recovery 52% among SMBs. Closure rates among SMBs have fallen from 24% to 18% globally since the start of 2021, with this fall reflected in the majority of countries. However, the global closure rate Approximately 52% of SMBs worldwide remains higher than in October 2020 (16%), continue to report lower sales, despite and rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and South closure rates being down. i
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 There are signs of uneven impacts and Despite this, women-led SMBs were less recoveries within these broader trends. SMBs likely than men-led SMBs to report a drop in in Europe and North America reported more employment as a result of the pandemic, with positive results overall, in line with the relative 33% reporting a reduction compared to 36% for strength of their recoveries. This is reflected in men-led SMBs. analyses of SMB outcomes and factors such as vaccination rates and measures of government Approaching the end of 2021, challenges clearly effectiveness. SMBs in countries with higher remain, but there are also signs of adaptation vaccination rates were less likely to report a and recovery. Lack of demand and cash flow reduction in sales compared to a year ago and a continue to be the most reported challenges, reduction in employment due to the pandemic. with 35% and 33% of respondents citing The same is true of countries that score higher these as concerns, respectively. However, on government effectiveness measures.1 this represents a decline from 2020, when up to 47% and 39% of SMBs, respectively, cited Outcomes also vary within many countries these as challenges. The survey also shows between different groups of SMBs. In the US, an increasing share of SMBs using digital closure rates fell to 16%, and only 34% of SMBs tools, with 88% indicating they were doing reported lower sales than a year ago. However, so compared to 81% at the start of 2021. minority-led SMBs in the US were at least Approximately 86% of SMBs indicated that 50% more likely to report: being closed (20% they expect to run their business operations at compared to 13% for other SMBs), a reduction least partly using digital tools in the future. The in sales in the most recent 30-day period year holiday season may also represent a significant on year (44% compared to 29%) and reduced opportunity for SMBs in some countries. In a employment as a result of the pandemic (32% subset of 14 countries and territories that were compared to 20%). Hispanic-led SMBs in the surveyed about the upcoming holidays, over US had the highest rate of closures at 24%, a fifth of SMBs indicated that they expected followed by Black-led SMBs at 22%. Asian-led the final 3 months of 2021 to represent the SMBs were the most likely to report reduced majority of their sales for the year. However, employment (38%). Minority-led SMBs were only 13% of SMBs indicated that they would more likely to expect changes in digital tool take on temporary holiday workers. use to persist. Among Black-led SMBs, 57% thought the pandemic would change the use This report highlights the continued of digital tools permanently, compared to vulnerability of SMBs to lasting impacts of 43% of other SMBs. the pandemic. SMBs have a key role to play in establishing a resilient and prosperous post- Globally, women-led SMBs also remain worse pandemic world. It is therefore imperative off than their men-led counterparts in closures that they are not left behind as the recovery and sales performance. Approximately 20% progresses and are provided with the support of women-led SMBs reported being closed, and opportunities to enable them to flourish. compared to 16% of men-led SMBs, although both rates have fallen since the start of 2021 (by 7 and 5 percentage points, respectively). Women-led SMBs were also 5% more likely to report a reduction in sales than men-led SMBs. ii
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 Table of Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... i Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 01 Section 01: Rates of closure ....................................................................................................................... 05 Section 02: Sales and revenues .................................................................................................................. 12 Section 03: Employment ............................................................................................................................ 20 Section 04: Use of digital tools.................................................................................................................. 29 Section 05: Challenges and future expectations ..................................................................................... 36 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................... 45 Appendix ....................................................................................................................................................... 46 References.................................................................................................................................................... 52 End Notes ..................................................................................................................................................... 55 iii
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 Introduction The world is entering the second half of 2021 Businesses will have to contend with ongoing and approaching its second full year of living uncertainty even as countries seek to accelerate with the COVID-19 pandemic. The start of the and broaden their recoveries. There are pandemic provided an unprecedented shock to serious challenges that lie ahead, not least the the global economy, but restrictions are easing, withdrawal of government support and the and vaccination programs are now running in need to adapt to a post-COVID-19 world. Given many countries. Globally, a recovery is underway, the importance of SMBs to global employment with economic activity expected to grow by 5.6% (70% of the total) and output (50% of gross to 6.0% over the course of the year (World Bank domestic product in most OECD countries), the Group 2021; International Monetary Fund 2021a). ability of these businesses to rebound will be crucial in limiting the long-term effects of the Uncertainty persists, however, and risks remain pandemic (International Labour Organization unevenly distributed. New variants drive new 2019; Gonzalez et al. 2014). outbreaks, and uneven vaccination progress poses varying risks across countries (Agarwal and Gopinath 2021). Significantly, evidence The ability of points to the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on small and medium-sized SMBs to rebound businesses (SMBs), defined as enterprises consisting of 250 employees or fewer.2 A will be crucial depression in consumer demand, combined in limiting the with restrictions on economic activity, has particularly impacted sectors where SMBs are long-term effects overrepresented, such as services, wholesale and retail trade, and hospitality, according to of the pandemic. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) research (OECD 2021a; OECD 2019). Moreover, the crisis has exposed the preexisting vulnerabilities of SMBs, including having smaller and less diversified customer bases, less developed supply chains, shorter- term cash flows and more limited access to finance (Gourinchas et al. 2021). 01
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 The Global State of Small Business Report series The rest of this report is structured as follows: is a data collection effort to monitor and share information about the performance of SMBs Section 01 globally.3 The results of this report are based upon looks at the reported rates of closure a survey conducted between July and August across SMBs. 2021, capturing the responses of 35,189 business leaders across 30 countries and territories, Section 02 including 10,262 business leaders from the US. assesses the reported sales performance This edition follows 6 waves of data collection of SMBs. throughout 2020 and a survey at the start of 2021. US data collection was done in partnership Section 03 with the Small Business Roundtable. The data analyses changes to employment within collection effort will continue to monitor the SMBs since the start of the COVID-19 performance of SMBs globally. pandemic and SMBs’ plans to rehire over the coming months. This latest report aims to present the state of small businesses midway through 2021, Section 04 assessing the performance and challenges faced describes how SMBs use digital tools. by SMBs during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as expectations and concerns for the future. Section 05 This edition of the report also takes a more outlines the views of SMB leaders on the detailed look at the challenges SMBs face when current or foreseeable challenges their transitioning back to physical spaces and the businesses are facing. holiday projections among a subset of SMBs. Finally, the report gives special attention to how women-led SMBs globally and minority-led SMBs in the US have fared relative to other SMBs. This report forms part of Facebook’s broader commitment to supporting SMBs and its effort to better understand the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on these businesses. Therefore, we hope that the data generated and the insights developed from this survey will continue to shed light on the performance and challenges facing SMBs as the world enters the next stage of the pandemic and beyond. 02
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 A note on survey methodology This report covers the findings of the second • SMBs are defined as having fewer than Global State of Small Business Survey of 2021. 250 employees, regardless of revenue The survey utilised a random sample of 35,189 or industry. SMB business leaders on Facebook, from 30 countries and territories, including 10,262 • The definition of SMBs, the number of business leaders from the US. Surveys were countries sampled within this report and conducted on Facebook over the period 19 July– sampling approaches may differ from other 7 August 2021 for data collection in the US and sources in the literature, including previous 19–30 July 2021 for the remaining countries Global State of Small Business surveys and territories. The reporting is limited to SMB conducted in 2020. While the trends and leaders, defined as respondents who identified key findings from the previous reports themselves as owning or managing a business remain relevant, these differences limit consisting of fewer than 250 employees. direct comparison with the results of the current survey, especially when looking The findings from this survey add to the at aggregated statistics. Where directly existing body of evidence and literature on compared in this report, survey data from the impact of COVID-19 on SMBs, particularly May and October 2020 is re-estimated using through its geographical coverage and number the same SMB definition. of respondents included. In considering the results, the following factors should be taken • In conducting time-trend analyses, the into account: scope of countries sampled between May 2020, October 2020, February 2021 and the • The survey uses a random sample of SMB present survey differ slightly. In re-estimating leaders with Facebook Page administrator the data from prior surveys, sample averages privileges and of the general population and regional statistics are calculated based of Facebook users. Therefore, the sample upon the current set of 30 countries and covered in the survey is representative of territories. As each survey uses a random SMB leaders surveyable through Facebook sample of SMBs from each country, this at the country level and not necessarily the forms a repeated cross-section. (There is national population of SMBs. Weights are no panel dimension.) Countries within the applied to enable analysis, accounting for current sample that were not present in prior nonresponse and level of Facebook activity. surveys or had insufficient sample sizes for a Statistics referring to the ‘aggregate’ or given question are not included in aggregate ‘global’ sample should not be considered or regional statistics relating to that survey representative of the global population of period. Where presented, any missing SMBs, given the sample and overall number of countries are denoted in the accompanying countries included in the survey. End Notes. 03
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 • The sample covered in the survey includes The Appendix contains further information a significantly higher number of SMBs in surrounding the survey methodology, survey the US relative to SMBs in other countries. invitations and response rates by country, We therefore present the results for the US together with sample characteristics. separately, with additional granularity on Information about how to access the state-level results where available. We present unweighted data and full survey methodology is results for other countries as country averages, available at: dataforgood.fb.com/docs/state-of- with global (aggregate) results presented as small-business. the average across country results. 30 • We weighted observations to account for response rates and representation within the Facebook SMB leaders population and reviewed these for robustness countries and territories were before including them in this report. In included in the survey comparing results across countries, it is 35,189 important to consider that variation and differences between countries may be driven by numerous factors. This could include the sectoral makeup of an economy, business leaders were surveyed the strictness of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the local level of COVID-19 cases and the level or extent of government support, among other factors. While this report does intend to highlight relationships of interest, causality cannot be inferred—for example, in the relationship between the rates of vaccination and SMB performance—so further research is encouraged in this regard. • The results presented in this report are not able to consider what responses might be in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Any estimates should therefore not be viewed to indicate net impacts of the pandemic on businesses relative to a counterfactual scenario in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred. 04
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 01 Rates of closure The closure rates of SMBs have fluctuated throughout the pandemic. By the second quarter of 2020, closure rates spiked (Facebook/OECD/World Bank 2020) and either remained high in some countries (OECD 2021a) or steadily fell in others as businesses adapted to the new operating environment and government support was introduced. Closure rates had again risen by February 2021, at the time of the previous iteration of the Global State of Small Business Survey, in the face of a renewed threat from COVID-19 variants and reimposition of NPIs in many countries. With overall economic activity returning to pre-pandemic levels and vaccination rates increasing in many countries, SMBs should have greater opportunities to recover. Significant challenges remain for SMBs, however, with uncertainty surrounding the continuation of government support and renewed spread of the virus, which may increase the pressures facing certain small businesses. 05
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 Since the start of 2021, SMB closure rates have declined across many countries … The results of our survey show that fewer SMBs are reporting being closed, in line with the improved economic outlook and easing 18% of restrictions. Approximately 18% of SMBs reported that they were not operational or engaging in any revenue-generating activities at the time of the survey.4 This represents a Globally, 18% of SMBs reported that they 12 percentage point decrease since May 2020, were closed, down 6 percentage points the peak of SMB closures across survey waves, from February 2021. and a drop of 6 percentage points since the start of 2021.5 Since the start of the year, regional closure rates have all declined, with SMBs reporting lower closure rates in 24 of the 27 countries and territories included across both surveys (Figure 1). FIGURE 1: Closure rates in July 2021, across countries and territories 10% 40% 06
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 … however, there exists a divergence European countries have the lowest rate of across countries and regions, with closures as of July 2021 and have seen the largest reductions (Figure 2). Of the 6 countries some showing little to no change in the and territories in the sample that have an SMB rate of closures closure rate below 10%, 5 are European (Belgium, Germany, Italy, Poland and Portugal), with Taiwan The decline in closure rates was greater for the only non-European territory. Closure rates more developed regions. Closure rates in fell most significantly in Portugal, a decrease Europe and North America have fallen by of 26 percentage points to 7% of SMBs, and 11 and 8 percentage points, respectively, the UK, a decrease of 15 percentage points to since February 2021, meaning that the share 22%. This compares to a rise in closure rates in of SMBs in the regions that were closed at the Australia, Pakistan and South Africa, all of which start of 2021 has nearly halved.6 Closure rates in have experienced unique challenges related to Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, meanwhile, the Delta variant, political unrest, strict NPIs have fallen only marginally compared with the and vaccine hesitancy (Smith 2021; BBC News beginning of the year, with rates consistently Service 2021; Scott and McKay 2021). higher than in more developed regions. FIGURE 2: Closure rates by survey wave, across regions 45% 40% 35% 30% Proportion of SMBs 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% East Asia Europe Latin America Middle East and North South Sub-Saharan Global sample and Pacific North Africa America Asia Africa average May 2020 October 2020 February 2021 July 2021 07
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 Closure rates have fallen faster for closed in Wisconsin (11%), Oregon (13%), consumer-facing SMBs … Michigan (14%), Nevada (16%), Oklahoma (16%), Arkansas (17%) and New York (17%), with each of these rates falling by over 10 percentage Closure rates of SMBs at the sector level have points since February. However, closure rates improved, especially for some consumer- in other states remained relatively high. This facing SMBs. SMB closure rates in February includes 25% of SMBs in Louisiana, 22% in 2021 were highest in the hospitality (25%) and Alabama, and 21% in both Pennsylvania and services (26%) sectors, followed by wholesale South Carolina, although the proportion and retail (21%). In July 2021, the closure rates of closed SMBs in Pennsylvania dropped by in hospitality and in wholesale and retail were 11 percentage points compared to February. at or below the global average (15% and 17%, respectively), with both sectors experiencing Women-led SMBs in the US were also more the largest declines relative to other sectors. likely to report being closed, at 18% compared There was also improvement in services, to just 13% for men-led SMBs. This imbalance with closures falling by 6 percentage points; was true in all states across the country except however, SMBs in this sector are still most likely for Tennessee, which had a 2 percentage point to be closed, at 20%. difference in favor of women-led SMBs. The proportion of micro-businesses (those with fewer than 10 employees) that reported being closed was approximately 50% higher than that of larger businesses (those with 10 or more employees). This is consistent with previous surveys and wider research, which have found that the smallest businesses are suffering most 16% through the pandemic (Dua et al. 2020). Closure rates are falling across the US 16% of US SMBs reported that they were closed in July 2021, down from Approximately 16% of US SMBs reported that 22% in February 2021. they were closed at the time of the survey, down from 22% in February. This generally follows the relaxation of restrictions in place across the country. Responses varied across states, however, and were not always in line 18% with the existence or degree of restrictions. Closure rates in February exceeded 30% in states such as Massachusetts, New York and Pennsylvania, but by July, at least 75% of surveyed SMBs in each state were operational. Massachusetts had the lowest closure rates 18% of US women-led SMBs reported that in the US (7%), 22 percentage points below the rate recorded in early 2021. A significantly they were closed at the time of the survey, smaller proportion of SMBs reported being compared to 13% of men-led SMBs. 08
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 Gender Disparity 20% of women-led SMBs were closed within the global sample, 4 percentage points higher than among men-led SMBs. 09
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 WOMEN-LED Rates of closure were higher among women-led SMBs than their men-led counterparts Approximately 20% of women-led SMBs were The disparity between men- and women-led closed within the global sample, 4 percentage SMBs was more mixed in Europe. For example, points higher than among men-led SMBs, in Ireland and the UK, women-led SMBs were although lower than the 6 percentage point each 10 percentage points more likely to report gap observed earlier in 2021. This disparity closures, but there were little to no reported was most evident in Latin America, where the differences in rates of closure between men- average rates of closure were 11 percentage led and women-led SMBs in Belgium, France, points higher for women-led SMBs. Most Germany, Italy, Portugal and Russia. notably, women-led SMBs were 18 percentage points more likely to be closed in Brazil. A similar Gaps across countries and territories in gap was apparent across other Latin American East Asia and the Pacific were also mixed. countries, at 7 percentage points or higher in Women-led SMBs in the Philippines, Australia each surveyed country and territory (Figure 3). and Taiwan were 9, 7 and 3 percentage points, respectively, more likely to report closures. In Sub-Saharan Africa, women-led SMBs The opposite was observed in Vietnam and were 7 percentage points more likely to report Indonesia, where men-led SMBs were closure at the time of the survey. This included 9 percentage points and 1 percentage point, women-led SMBs in Kenya, where they were respectively, more likely to report closures. 11 percentage points more likely to be closed. Differences between genders were negligible The gap remained at 5 percentage points or among SMBs in the Middle East and North more for the other 3 countries in the region. Africa (comprising SMBs from Egypt and Israel). FIGURE 3: The differential in closure rates between men- and women-led SMBs, by country and territory 7 40% 2% 35% 18% 11% 5% 6% 30% 9% 10% 5% 10% 6% Proportion of SMBs 25% 9% -9% 7% 1% 20% 8% 0% 6% 9% 15% 4% -1% -1% 10% -2% 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 5% 0% Canada Colombia Argentina Australia France Belgium Brazil Egypt Mexico South Africa Germany Ghana Ireland Israel Italy Kenya Nigeria Philippines Indonesia Poland Portugal Russia Spain Taiwan UK US Vietnam Men-led SMBs Women-led SMBs Global sample average 10
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 MINORITY-LED Minority-led SMBs in the US continue to be more severely impacted The pandemic continues to disproportionately impact minority-led SMBs in the US.8 Minority-led SMBs were 7 percentage points more likely to report closures, with 20% closed compared to 13% of other SMBs. This rate has dropped faster for minority-led SMBs since February 2021, with a 7 percentage point decrease 24% compared to 5 percentage points for other SMBs. A significant portion of this decrease is due to an 11 percentage point drop in the closure rate of Black-led SMBs. Hispanic-led Hispanic-led SMBs were the most SMBs were the most likely to report being likely to report being closed at 24%, closed at 24%, a drop of 2 percentage points down from 26% in February. since February, and the proportion of Asian-led SMBs that are not currently operating has increased from 13% in February to 15% at the 20% vs 13% time of the survey. Minority-led SMBs were 7 percentage points more likely to report being closed than other SMBs. The decline in closure rates is in line with the wider economic recovery and may be a sign of the lessening impact of the pandemic on SMBs. However, progress is uneven. Closure rates fell faster in developed countries, and SMBs in consumer-facing sectors report a welcome improvement. However, women- led SMBs globally, minority-led businesses in the US and SMBs in developing countries, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, remain behind. 11
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 02 Sales and revenues Mobility-reducing restrictions, coupled with sharp declines in consumer confidence, have provided a challenging operating environment for SMBs during the course of the pandemic, even for those able to remain open (OECD 2020a).9 Previous Global State of Small Business reports found that the majority of SMBs had experienced a decline in sales over the course of the pandemic, and wider research points to changing consumer spending habits (Deloitte 2020). The pace of improvement to the sales environment is likely to vary considerably across countries and regions, even though many economies are expected to achieve significant levels of growth in 2021. The US was estimated to have surpassed pre-COVID levels of output in the first half of 2021, but the return to normal levels of economic activity may take longer for many other economies, particularly for many emerging markets and less economically developed nations (US Bureau of Economic Analysis 2021; International Monetary Fund 2021a). The fortunes of these businesses will be an integral part of this revival, given the asymmetry of the impacts of COVID-19 on SMBs and the important role SMBs play within these economies. 12
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 The sales environment is improving lower sales in October 2020, 55% in February for some operational SMBs, although 2021 and 52% in the most recent survey. However, at the same time, a majority of SMBs conditions remain challenging for many … reported a worsened sales performance relative A growing proportion of SMBs are reporting to July 2020, a period during which the world an improved sales climate in line with the was already in the grip of the pandemic, despite economic recovery. Approximately 28% of evidence of an improving sales climate for a operational businesses reported higher sales growing proportion of SMBs. over the past 30 days compared to the same period last year.10, 11 This represents a steady increase across time (Figure 4). Only 16% of SMBs reported higher year-on-year sales in 28% May 2020, since increasing to 20% and 21% of surveyed SMBs in the October 2020 and February 2021 surveys, respectively. The proportion of SMBs reporting lower sales has itself fallen, compared with previous survey results. This may also be indicative that more SMBs are starting to recover. Just under three- 28% of operational businesses reported quarters (73%) of SMBs reported lower sales higher sales over the past 30 days in May 2020 than in the same 30-day period a compared to the same period last year. year earlier. This fell to 68% of SMBs reporting FIGURE 4: Operational SMBs reporting higher sales compared to the previous year, across survey waves for regions 40% 35% 30% Proportion of SMBs 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% East Asia Europe Latin Middle East and North South Sub-Saharan Global sample and Pacific America North Africa America Asia Africa average May 2020 October 2020 February 2021 July 2021 13
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 SMBs in North America and Europe saw In contrast, SMBs in East Asia and the Pacific the greatest increase in the proportion of and in Sub-Saharan Africa reported worsening SMBs reporting improved year-on-year sales sales performance. The share of SMBs in these performance. For instance, 40% of North regions reporting higher sales fell by 5 and American SMBs reported higher sales, 11 percentage points, respectively, reflecting a 17 percentage point improvement since renewed outbreaks in these regions driven by February 2021. The same trend could also be the Delta variant. observed in Europe and Latin America, with 15 and 14 percentage point improvements, Three-quarters or more of SMBs in India, respectively, since February 2021. SMBs in Taiwan and Vietnam reported lower sales, with Ireland reported the largest improvement only 10% to 17% of SMBs in these countries within these regions, with a 27 percentage indicating sales have improved relative to the point increase in the proportion of SMBs same period in 2020 (Figure 5). More SMBs reporting higher year-on-year sales. This was reported increased sales than decreased sales followed by the US (21 percentage points), Italy relative to the same month in the previous year (20 percentage points), the UK (19 percentage in Ireland, Nigeria and the US, the only countries points), Germany (19 percentage points) and to report this trend. Brazil (18 percentage points). FIGURE 5: Sales performance compared to the previous year, for SMBs in selected countries and territories 100% 90% 80% 70% Proportion of SMBs 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Canada Argentina Australia France Belgium Brazil Colombia Egypt Mexico South Africa Germany Ghana India Ireland Israel Italy Kenya Nigeria Pakistan Philippines Indonesia Poland Portugal Russia Spain Taiwan Turkey UK US Vietnam Lower The same Higher 14
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 Within the US, SMB sales performance varied The picture was less positive in other states. by state (Figure 6). The majority of SMBs in The proportion of SMBs reporting lower sales Tennessee (53%) and South Carolina (52%) was highest in California, Georgia, Michigan reported greater sales in the past 30 days and Virginia (all 42%). SMBs in California, compared to the previous year. SMBs in Georgia, Michigan, New Jersey and New York Arizona and Tennessee reported the largest were also more likely to report lower sales than rise relative to February 2021, with the to report higher sales, although the proportion proportion reporting higher year-on-year reporting a worse sales performance declined sales increasing by 13 percentage points in all but Georgia. in both states. Improved sales performance was also evident in Indiana, Maryland and Minnesota, where only a quarter of SMBs reported a reduction in sales, compared to 31-point gain a national average of 34%. Maryland and SMBs in Arizona and Tennessee reported Minnesota also recorded 30 and 29 percentage the largest rise relative to February 2021, point decreases, respectively, in the share of with the proportion reporting higher SMBs reporting lower sales. year-on-year sales increasing by 31 percentage points. FIGURE 6: Sales performance compared to the previous year, for SMBs in selected US states 60% 50% 40% Proportion of SMBs 30% 20% 10% 0% California Colorado Georgia Illinois Kentucky Michigan Minnesota New New Tennessee Virginia US Jersey York average Higher Lower 15
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 … in particular, more consumer-facing Construction SMBs were least likely to report SMBs are reporting a worse sales a year-on-year drop in sales (41%), followed by those in agriculture (41%) and information and performance than other sectors communications technology (ICT) (43%). SMBs The majority of SMBs in retail and hospitality in construction and in ICT were also among the sectors reported lower sales, contrasting most likely to report an increase in sales, with with the downward trend seen in aggregate 35% of SMBs in these sectors doing so, behind closure rates. Operational consumer-facing only manufacturing at 36%. SMBs were 7 percentage points more likely to report a reduction in sales. SMBs in wholesale and retail trade were most likely to report a reduction in sales compared to the equivalent period last year, with 56% doing so (Figure 7). Approximately 52% of SMBs in hospitality reported a reduction in sales. The wholesale and retail trade sector and the hospitality sector 52% also had the lowest shares reporting an increase in sales, at 28% and 33%, respectively. SMBs in other sectors have fared relatively better. 52% of SMBs globally in hospitality reported a decrease in year-on-year sales. FIGURE 7: Sales performance compared to the previous year, by sector Agriculture Construction Hospitality ICT Manufacturing Other services Transportation and storage Wholesale and retail trade 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Proportion of SMBs Lower The same Higher 16
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 SMB recovery is correlated with appear to have a lower incidence of SMBs vaccination rates reporting they have reduced employment as a result of the pandemic—and conversely, There appears to be a correlation between sales a positive correlation with the proportion performance and vaccination rates, consistent increasing employment. with wider links reported between vaccination rates and economic recovery (United Nations While these correlations do not establish a Development Programme 2021; World Health causal relation between rates of vaccination Organization 2021). Countries and territories and SMB performance, they do highlight the with higher vaccination rates tend to have lower disparity between countries that have had proportions of SMBs reporting a decline in sales faster vaccination rollouts (generally more relative to last year (Figure 8). developed countries) and those that have not, particularly in relation to economic recovery. This relationship also holds with regards to the proportion of SMBs reducing employment (see Section 03 for an analysis of employment). Countries with higher rates of full vaccination FIGURE 8: Correlation between the rate of full vaccinations and operational SMBs reporting a drop in year-on-year sales, by country and territory12 80% ID VN TW 70% ZA GH Proportion of SMBs EG 60% KE PH TR CO AU PT IN PK MX 50% BR ES GB AR PL IL FR BE NG RU 40% IT CA DE IE US 30% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 People fully vaccinated per 100, at the start of July 2021 17
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 WOMEN-LED Women-led SMBs were equally as likely to report a decrease in sales as men-led SMBs The proportion of SMBs reporting an likely), Portugal (12 percentage points), improvement in sales performance in the past France (11 percentage points) and Ireland 30 days compared to the same period last year (11 percentage points). was the same for both women- and men-led SMBs, at 28%. There was also no observable This trend was not universal across countries, difference between gender in the share of SMBs however, and in some countries was reversed. reporting a worsened sales performance (53%). Women-led SMBs in the UK, Israel, Canada and Argentina were all more likely to report In some countries, women-led SMBs were more increasing sales performances (by 6, 6, 2 and likely to report a worse sales performance. 10 percentage points, respectively). They were Women-led SMBs in Brazil were 16 percentage also less likely to record a drop in sales (by 10, 5, points less likely to report a year-on-year sales 6 and 1 percentage points, respectively) relative increase and 8 percentage points more likely to to men-led SMBs. This may be driven in part report a sales decrease. Women-led SMBs were by the recovery of retail and service sectors, over 10 percentage points less likely to report in which women-led SMBs are slightly more an increase in sales in certain other countries as concentrated, on average, within these countries. well, including Ghana (16 percentage points less 18
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 MINORITY-LED Minority-led SMBs in the US reported a greater impact on sales Minority-led SMBs in the US were more likely however, higher than the proportion reporting to report a reduction in sales compared to an increase in sales (37%) and is in contrast to the same period the previous year, with 44% the trend seen in other SMBs and the overall US doing so compared to 29% of other SMBs average. Hispanic-led SMBs were most likely to (Figure 9). This represents an 11 percentage report reduced sales (46%) and least likely to point improvement since February 2021. It is, report increased sales (31%). FIGURE 9: Proportion of SMBs reporting a change in sales from previous year, by race or ethnicity 13, 14 50% 45% 40% 35% Proportion of SMBs 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% White Selecting more than Black Hispanic Minority-led US average one race or ethnicity Higher sales Lower sales The business environment remains challenging These disparities, and the continued for many SMBs despite an increasing share improvement of various SMBs’ performance, of SMBs reporting a growth in sales. Those are likely to be crucial for the wider strength of in countries with higher vaccination rates are the global economic recovery. performing relatively better. However, women- and minority-led SMBs remain behind other SMBs. 19
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 03 Employment The continuing impact of the pandemic on aggregate unemployment rates varies across countries. In some, rates are falling, although they remain above pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment rates in the US peaked at 15% in 2020 before declining to 5.4% by July 2021, still above the 3.5% rate observed in February 2020 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics 2021). Similar trends can be seen across OECD countries as well (OECD 2021b). In other countries, however, unemployment remains high. Unemployment in Brazil, for example, reached a record high of 14.7% in April 2021 (McGeever 2021). Evidence from the previous waves of the Global State of Small Business Report, as well as the wider literature, indicates that SMBs have reduced employment as a response to the COVID-19 crisis (Facebook/OECD/World Bank 2020; International Trade Centre 2020). SMBs also account for 70% of global employment and may have a potentially vital role to play in aiding the overall restoration of employment (International Labour Organization 2019). 20
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 The proportion of operational SMBs Despite the decline in February 2021, this reporting reduced employment as a may indicate a longer-lasting impact of the pandemic on SMBs’ ability to grow. result of the COVID-19 pandemic has risen since the start of the year … SMBs are increasingly reporting a drop in employment as a result of the pandemic, 36% indicating that some SMBs continue to be held back from recovery and growth. Approximately 36% of operational SMBs globally reported that, to date in July 2021, the pandemic had caused them to reduce employment, marking an increase from 30% at the start of 2021.15 The share of SMBs reporting a drop in employment has stayed largely consistent with previous 36% of operational SMBs globally stages of the pandemic, with 38% and 39% of reported that they have reduced SMBs reporting reducing employment in May and employment as a result of the pandemic, October 2020, respectively (Figure 10). an increase from 30% in February 2021. FIGURE 10: Operational SMBs reporting reducing employment as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, across regions 60% 50% 40% Proportion of SMBs 30% 20% 10% 0% East Asia Europe Latin America Middle East and North South Sub-Saharan Global sample and Pacific North Africa America Asia Africa average May 2020 October 2020 February 2021 July 2021 21
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 There are also differences across countries. SMBs a reduction in employment as a result of the in Europe and North America were less likely to pandemic (Figure 11). This trend also holds when report a reduction in employment as a result of considering developing countries and territories the pandemic than SMBs in other regions. All only. However, the relationship does not appear countries in our sample in which less than 30% of to hold for the subset of developed countries.17 SMBs reported a reduction in employment are in these regions. SMBs in developing countries—in particular, Indonesia (72%), Kenya (58%) and Countries and Vietnam (53%)—were much more likely to have reduced their workforces. territories that score higher on the World SMBs’ performance also appears to correlate with the institutional environments in which Bank Government they operate. The World Bank Government Effectiveness Effectiveness Index measures the quality of Index appear to inputs required for the government to be able to produce and implement good policies and have fewer SMBs deliver public goods. The index is based on reporting a reduction households’ and businesses’ perception of the quality of factors such as public services and in employment as a policymaking.16 Countries that score higher on result of the pandemic. the index appear to have fewer SMBs reporting FIGURE 11: Relationship between government effectiveness and the proportion of SMBs reporting employment reductions, by country and territory 80% ID 70% 60% KE Proportion of SMBs VN 50% NG GH CO IN EG PH 40% PK MX ZA TR BR TW ES AR 30% IL AU IT PT CA RU PL US GB DE 20% BE IE FR 10% -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Government Effectiveness Index 22
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 … however, some SMBs have since started rehiring, a trend that appears set to persist into the near future … Some SMBs have been active in rebuilding their workforces, despite many continuing to report 19% reduced overall employment. Approximately 38% of SMBs indicated that at least some of their current workforce had been hired during 19% of SMBs globally indicated that the pandemic (Figure 12), and 19% indicated they had rehired at least some of their that at least some of these workers were workers who had been furloughed or rehired after being furloughed or laid off during laid off during the pandemic. the pandemic. The proportion of SMBs rehiring furloughed or laid-off workers was substantially higher in some countries—for example, India (37%), Pakistan (35%) and Indonesia (33%). 10% 10% of SMBs globally reported that their employment had increased as a result of the pandemic. FIGURE 12: Operational SMBs reporting increasing employment as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, across regions 20% 15% Proportion of SMBs 10% 5% 0% East Asia Europe Latin Middle East and North South Sub-Saharan Global sample and Pacific America North Africa America Asia Africa average May 2020 October 2020 February 2021 July 2021 23
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 In fact, more than 10% of operational SMBs in our survey reported that their employment had increased as a result of the pandemic. This represents a larger proportion than in February 2021 (7%) and at any point in the previous year. Looking to the future, 24% of SMBs surveyed 24% globally plan to rehire previously furloughed or laid-off workers over the next 6 months. This proportion was higher in many middle-income countries, such as Colombia, India and Pakistan, 24% of SMBs surveyed globally plan to which were all at 41% (Figure 13). rehire previously furloughed or laid-off workers over the next 6 months. FIGURE 13: SMBs planning to hire more workers over the coming months, by country and territory 80% 70% 60% 50% Proportion of SMBs 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Canada Argentina Australia France Belgium Brazil Colombia Egypt Mexico South Africa Germany Ghana India Taiwan Turkey UK US Vietnam Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Kenya Nigeria Pakistan Philippines Poland Portugal Russia Spain No Yes 24
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 In the US, 24% of SMBs stated that they Arkansas had the highest proportion of SMBs had reduced employment as a consequence reporting increased employment, at 23%. of the COVID-19 pandemic, representing This contrasts with states such as Alabama, only a 3 percentage point decline since Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nevada and February. At the same time, 13% of SMBs Tennessee, where less than 10% reported an had increased employment over the same increase in employment. period, an improvement of 5 percentage points since February. … with changes in SMB employment dependent on sectors Results varied across states, with 38% of SMBs in Nevada and approximately one-third of SMBs in the hospitality and transport sectors SMBs in Michigan (33%) and Kentucky (32%) were the most likely to report reduced stating they had reduced employment. This employment due to the pandemic (52% and was in direct comparison to South Carolina 42% of SMBs in these sectors, respectively) and Minnesota, where only 14% of SMBs had (Figure 14). In contrast, 27% of SMBs in the reduced employment. The proportion of SMBs ICT sector experienced a reduction in their in New Jersey reporting that they had reduced workforces. SMBs in this sector were also most employment was 13 percentage points lower likely to report an increase in employment due since the February survey, the largest drop of to the pandemic, with 14% doing so. all states, followed by Missouri (12 percentage points lower), and California and New York (both 11 percentage points lower). FIGURE 14: Proportion of SMBs reporting changing employment due to the COVID-19 pandemic, by sector Agriculture Construction Hospitality ICT Manufacturing Other services Transportation and storage Wholesale and retail trade 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Proportion of SMBs Increased Decreased 25
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 WOMEN-LED Women-led SMBs were less likely to report reduced employment but were also less likely to have increased employment Women-led SMBs globally were 4 percentage previous Global State of Small Business reports points less likely to have reported reducing and wider literature on female entrepreneurs employment as a result of the COVID-19 (Facebook/OECD/World Bank 2020; Bardasi pandemic than men-led SMBs. Women-led et al. 2011). Differences in the characteristics SMBs were also 3 percentage points less likely of men- and women-led SMBs, such as the to state that they had increased employment. average size and the sectoral composition, may influence the productivity and scalability The difference between women- and men- of these businesses (Carranza et al. 2018). This led SMBs varied in size by country and suggests that variation in the size and sectoral territory. Women-led SMBs were more than makeup of SMBs may play an important role 10 percentage points less likely to report in driving some of the observed differences reducing employment in Israel (16 percentage between men- and women-led enterprises. points), the UK (12), Australia (10) and Taiwan (10). Women-led SMBs were also more than 10 percentage points less likely to report increasing employment in Germany, Ireland and Russia. 26% vs 18% 26% of men-led SMBs reported that Similar trends were observed when SMBs they plan to rehire workers within the were asked about their expectations for next 6 months, compared to only rehiring. Approximately 26% of men-led 18% of women-led SMBs. SMBs reported that they were planning to rehire within the next 6 months, compared to only 18% of women-led SMBs. This disparity was greatest in countries such as Mexico Variation in size and (19 percentage points lower), Vietnam sectoral makeup (15 percentage points), Russia (14 percentage points), South Africa (14 percentage points) between women- and Canada (13 percentage points). and men-led SMBs These findings may be driven in part by may play an important the greater propensity of women-led SMBs role in driving some sampled to operate smaller establishments, such as those within the personal services observed differences. sector. Women-led SMBs globally were 12 percentage points more likely to work in the services sector and 6 percentage points more likely to work in a micro-enterprise (i.e., fewer than 10 employees), similar to the 26
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 MINORITY-LED Minority-led SMBs were more likely to reduce employment Minority-led SMBs in the US were more likely to report reduced employment. Almost one- third (32%) did so, compared to just 20% of other SMBs, a difference of 12 percentage points. This gap has widened since February 2021, when minority-led SMBs were only 7 percentage points more likely to have reduced 32% employment. Asian-led SMBs were most likely to reduce employment, with 38% reporting reduced employment, followed by 35% for Hispanic-led SMBs. Asian-led SMBs were also 32% of minority-led businesses the most likely to report increased employment, reported reducing employment as however, at 18% compared to just 7% of a result of the pandemic, compared Hispanic-led SMBs. to 20% of other SMBs. There is some cause for optimism, however, as more minority-led SMBs (21%) planned to rehire furloughed or laid-off workers over the next 6 months than other SMBs (8%). More than one-quarter (27%) of Hispanic-led SMBs planned to rehire staff, the most of any minority group. While the recent trends for the labour market There are causes for optimism, however. have been positive, the findings of the survey An increasing share of SMBs now have more suggest the impact of the pandemic on SMB employees than before the pandemic, and employment has remained stubbornly high almost one-quarter are now either rehiring over its course. The share of SMBs reporting a or planning to rehire, including minority-led reduction in workforce size since the start of businesses. Enabling SMB growth will be an the pandemic fell in February 2021 but has since important element to economic recovery and returned to the higher levels seen in 2020. resilience going forward. 27
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 Rehiring Uptick More minority-led SMBs (21%) plan to rehire furloughed or laid-off workers over the next 6 months than other SMBs (8%). 28
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 04 Use of digital tools The digitalisation of businesses has surged in recent years, and companies have further increased their use of digital tools during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, remote working, adoption of newer technologies and revenue made online have increased (Gartner 2021; OECD 2020b). New consumer habits and expectations of work conditions formed during the pandemic are likely to remain to some extent, even as the economic recovery continues (European Commission 2021; Bartik et al. 2020). SMBs typically lag behind their larger counterparts when considering the uptake of digital tools, restricting their use to mostly administrative functions (OECD 2021c). Digital platforms, however, have provided many enterprises with an alternative avenue in which to operate during the pandemic. SMBs have had to adapt, whether to reach new customers or overcome physical restrictions placed upon their operations. Subsequently, use of digital tools has increased significantly during these difficult times. 29
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 During the COVID-19 pandemic, Use of digital tools has also increased since the an increasing share of SMBs have start of 2021, rising from 81% to 88% of SMBs since February 2021 (Figure 15). The share of leveraged digital tools to stay SMBs using digital tools increased the most connected to their customers … in Egypt (19 percentage points), and in Ireland and Pakistan (both 17 percentage points), but A large majority of leaders in operational this trend was not always consistent. SMBs in SMBs reported utilising digital tools for their countries such as Israel and Indonesia reported businesses. SMBs were most likely to report a decline in the use of digital tools, by 5 and 7 using digital tools to advertise (60%) and to percentage points, respectively. communicate with customers (58%). This trend was evident in all regions except North SMBs have been increasing digital tool use America, where SMBs were more likely to report across a range of purposes since February 2021. communicating directly with customers (73%) The largest increases were seen in advertising than advertising as a use of digital tools (71%). and selling goods and services, with the share SMBs in Latin America were particularly likely of SMBs using digital tools for these purposes to use digital tools for advertising, with 76% rising 21 percentage points and 12 percentage and 73% of SMBs highlighting this in Mexico points, respectively. and Brazil, respectively. FIGURE 15: SMBs’ reported use of digital tools in February and July 2021 survey waves, across the global sample 60% 50% 40% Proportion of SMBs 30% 20% 10% 0% Advertising Communicating Selling goods Analysing or Coordinating or Hiring None with customers and services researching to answer collaborating mentioned business questions between employees February 2021 July 2021 30
G LOBAL STATE O F SM A LL BU SI N E SS R E P O R T - S EP T EM B ER 2021 … in particular, digital channels were a regions, particularly Latin America, where 43% means to support sales for SMBs … indicated that use of digital tools had increased sales performance. The exception was Europe, The importance of digital tools to SMB leaders where SMBs were the least likely to report was reflected in the proportion of businesses an increase in sales (30%) and more likely to reporting positive experiences. Approximately identify an increase in customer or supplier 69% of SMBs reported that use of digital tools base (32%). has had at least one positive impact on their business operations, such as an increase in sales or customer base. This proportion was greater in middle-income countries, despite the overall lower usage rates. In Vietnam and the Philippines, 88% and 78% of SMBs, Usage of digital respectively, reported at least one form of positive impact on their businesses. tools by SMBs has increased globally, More SMBs reported that digital tools had led to an increase in sales (34%) than for any other rising from 81% impact, followed by an increase in customer or supplier base (31%) across the global sample to 88% since (Figure 16). This was the case across almost all February 2021. FIGURE 16: Reported impact of digital tools on operational SMBs, across the global sample 40% 30% Proportion of SMBs 20% 10% 0% Increase Increase in Access to digital Lower Increase in Other No impact in sales customer or solutions and business operational employment supplier base intelligence services costs 31
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