Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in Global Tourism - GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI - GVC Gaesco Gestión
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Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in Global Tourism GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI
Solid demand and up trend 1. Middle Class 2. Connectivity 3. New Generations 4. Arrivals & Receipts 5. Knowledge
World Population growth & Middle Class percentage. Solid Demand “For the first time in history, more than half the world is middle class thanks to rapid growth in emerging countries” | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 3
World Population growth & Middle Class percentage Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.aspal Affairs. Second Among Equals: The Middle Class Kingdoms of India and China. Surjit S. Bhalla. May 21, 2007 The Economist. Special Report: The New middle classes in emerging markets. Feb 12 th 2009 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 4
Global Tourism Demand Global Tourism: strong historical growth Strong forecasted growth 1,420 million in 2018 1,500 million in 2019 (+4%) 1995-2018: Global Tourist definition World GDP annualized Growth: +3.8% International traveller spending at least one night abroad Global tourism annualized growth: +5.6% 2018: World GDP Growth: +3.7% Global tourism Growth: +8.3% Fuente: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 5
2018-2019 data from UNWTO 7.2 300 6.7 277 7.0 262.1 5.6 Largest International Tourism Expenditure 2018- 4.8 5.1 4.8 250 4.7 2019* (USD Billions) +10.4% 5.0 4.1 3.8 3.8 200 184.2 3.0 1.9 144 150 1.0 104.8 94 90.2 100 76 -1.0 56.2 50 48 43.8 37 42.2 33 36.4 33.5 32 International Tourist Arrivals World 30 -3.0 0 -5.0 -4.0 2019 2018 Annualized Growth 1990/2018: Tourism 3rd largest exporter World GDP: +3,6% sector right after Chemicals and Oil International Arrivals: +4,3% derivatives. International Receipts: +5,6% Global tourism expenditures in 2019*: +10.4% among the top 10 *Estimated by the UNWTO not official | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 6
Travel and Tourism Competitiveness • World’s Top3: Spain, France, Germany • 6 European countries out of Top 10 • Japan has recently grown and ranks 4th Travel and Tourism Competitiveness(2019)(140 countries surveyed) Rank Country Points Rank Country Points 1 Spain 5.4 9 Canada 5.1 2 France 5.4 10 Switzerland 5.0 3 Germany 5.4 13 China 4.9 4 Japan 5.4 19 Mexico 4.7 5 United States 5.3 31 Thailand 4.5 6 United Kingdom 5.2 34 India 4.4 7 Australia 5.1 63 Vietnam 3.9 8 Italy 5.1 Source: World Economic Forum* The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2019 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 7
Covid19 Recovery 1. Health 2. Economy 3. Stock Price 4. The Champagne Cork Effect 5. Recovery Ladder
Tourism situation now & Post Covid19 Inverse V shape recovery on Health SPAIN CHINA GERMANY FRANCE UK USA JAPAN BRAZIL *Source: WHO Daily New Cases | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 10
Tourism situation now & Post Covid19 V on Economy Chinese PMI (March) Chinese Non Manufacturing PMI (March) *Source: Bloomberg & IMF | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 11
Tourism situation now & Post Covid19 V on Stock Price YTD Comparison *Source: Bloomberg | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 12
Tourism situation now & Post Covid19 V on Stock Price EU will ease the Lockdown announced on May 23rd 18 1 Month Comparison 16 GVC Gaesco 300 Places 9.53% 14 May 22nd 12 10 8 TUI GR Melia Carnival Accor Lindblad Sixt Pref Wizzair AENA DUFRY 6 *Source: Bloomberg | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 13
Demand still there and counting down to Summer Season The Champagne Cork Effect 70% Flights Searches from Italy in March 2020 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 2020 *Source: ForwardKeys | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 14
Demand still there and counting down to Summer Season The Champagne Cork Effect *Source: ForwardKeys | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 15
Volumes in 2020, Price recovery in 2021 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 16
China Recovering Domestic Passenger *Source: Jefferies | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 17
Recovering EU Bookings *Source: Financial Times & Forwardkeys | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 18
Winners Vs. Losers Massive transport Bankruptcy Winners • Trigano • Sixt vs Hertz • SIXT • TUI vs. Thomas Cook • Atlantia • Carnival vs. Pullmantur • Autogrill • Lindblad Expeditions Hospitality • Trigano Profitability (Low Cost Carrier) • Ryanair • Wizzair Valuation • Airbus Bargain Hunting • Carnival | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 19
Investment Case Vs. Before Covid New way of riding Old fashion style Deals with OEM’s Cars Owned or Leasing Returns 6 months period No return Rent-Sharing-Ride Rent Only Small Market Share in US US 2nd Largest Market Share Covid Impact From 63.93 to 27.55 (-56.9%) to 50.50 (+85.32%) From 20.85 to 1.24 (-94.05%) US Markets Share jumps Bankruptcy (7 airports Las Vegas, Orlando, Denver, New Jersey…) | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 20
Coming back to the “new normality” +? +? +? Global Tourism Receipts +? Global Tourism Volume +? International Flights Allowed US unexpected +22.98% June 5th Hiring Rebounds & Covid19 over peak EU will open Recovering +19.12% May 23rd for summer holidays +51.25% Bottom until June 5th Covid19 EU March 18th over peak | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 21
Why 300 Places? A limited offer Traveling a life need instead of Luxury We can produce more cars We can produce more watches We can produce more smartphones but… Can we produce more breathtaking and unique places? | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 22
Why 300? Limited Global Tourism Supply Limited Supply City ciudad Region pais o region Country zona geografica City Region Country 1 New York New York U.S.A. 31 Sydney Opera House and the harbour Australia Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Islands 2 Paris France Western Europe 32 Maui Hawaii U.S.A. 3 Walt Disney World - Orlando Florida U.S.A. 33 Kennedy Space Center - Cape Canaveral Florida U.S.A. 4 San Francisco California U.S.A. 34 The New Orleans Restaurant Scene Louisiana U.S.A. 5 London England Great Britain & Ireland 35 Hong Kong China East Asia 6 The Las Vegas Strip Nevada U.S.A. 36 Hawaiì Island (Big Island) Hawaii U.S.A. 7 Los Angeles California U.S.A. 37 Independence National Historical Park -Philadelphia Pennsylvania U.S.A. 8 Rome Italy Western Europe 38 Stonehenge England Great Britain & Ireland 9 Washington DC District of Columbia U.S.A. 39 River Walk - San Antonio Texas U.S.A. 10 Chicago Illinois U.S.A. 40 Yellowstone Wyoming U.S.A. 11 Venice Italy Western Europe 41 Beijing China East Asia 12 Grand Canyon Arizona U.S.A. 42 New Orleans's Music Scene Louisiana U.S.A. 13 Boston Massachusetts U.S.A. 43 Old Town square - Prague Czech Republic Eastern Europe 14 Florence Tuscany, Italy Western Europe 44 The Garden District - New Orleans Louisiana U.S.A. 15 Niagara Falls and Niagara wine country Ontario Canada 45 Edinburgh Castle and festivals Scotland Great Britain & Ireland 16 South Beach - Miami Beach Florida U.S.A. 46 Monaco Monaco Western Europe 17 The San Diego Zoo California U.S.A. 47 The hill towns of tuscany Tuscany, Italy Western Europe 18 Amsterdam Netherlands Western Europe 48 Tokio Japan East Asia 19 The French Quarter - New Orleans Louisiana U.S.A. 49 The Pyramids of Egypt Egypt North Africa 20 The Florida Keys Florida U.S.A. 50 On and around Piazza del Duomo - Milan Lombardy, Italy Western Europe 21 California Wine Country California U.S.A. 51 The french riviera France Western Europe 22 Lucca and Pisa Tuscany, Italy Western Europe 52 Salzburg: Baroque and Modern Austria Western Europe 23 Vienna Austria Western Europe 53 Savannah's Historic District Georgia U.S.A. 24 The Pacific Coast Highway and Big Sur California U.S.A. 54 Belgian Chocolate Belgium Western Europe 25 Oahu Hawaii U.S.A. 55 Cape Cod Massachusetts U.S.A. 26 The acropolis - Athens Greece Western Europe 56 Santorini Greece Western Europe 27 Gaudí and La Sagrada Familia - Barcelona Catalonia, Spain Western Europe 57 chichèn Itzá and Mérida Mexico Mexico & Central America 28 Yosemite National Park California U.S.A. 58 Colonial Williamsburg Virginia U.S.A. 29 Madrid Spain Western Europe 59 The Heart Of Charleston South Carolina U.S.A. 30 Pike Place Market - Seattle Washington U.S.A. 60 Everglades National Park Florida U.S.A. Source: 1000 Places to See Before You Die (IPAD App.) | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 23
Investment Process Quantity of the 300 Places Company Primary Search Qualitative Analysis Fundamental Valuation Worlwide covered by the companies Strength of the business and Analysis of the consistency of Analysis of the performance 300 Places Worldwide more competitive advantage of the the management team through expectations visited by the global tourist company one to one meetings Medium-term consistency of the Medium and long-term view of Sales, margins, and results Analysis of any of the company business model the management team expectations services all over the world Credibility of the management Analysis of the internal cycles of the Specialization team. Quality management business activity Leadership in the sector Shareholder structure Business valuation: discount operating cash flows. Clear sources of profit generation Analysis of the fundamental Margin stability discounts of the companies Cash Flow sustainability Monitoring the discount lifecycles Level of internationalization Quarterly review Appropriate Financial Structure | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 24
The Wheel of Traveling THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY BOOKING LAS VEGAS SANDS TUI AG WYNN MACAU 7. Final Destination 1. Travel Planning FLIGHT CENTRE GROUP VISA & Much more SABRE CORP. TRIPADVISOR SAMSONITE MANDARIN ORIENTAL 6. The Trip HQ 2. Travel Hubs SHANGRI-LA ASIA MELIA HOTELS ACCOR ATLANTIA JAPAN AIRPORT TERMINAL TRIGANO AEROPORT DE PARIS CENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY SIXT 5. By Road DUFRY AUTOGRILL 3. By the Sea SINGAPORE AIRLINES 4. Flying RYANAIR ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES WIZZAIR CARNIVAL AEGEAN LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS NORWEGIAN | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 25
Booking Holdings Principal operator of hotel reservations, car rentals, airline tickets and cruises (under the brand priceline.com) Presence in +220 countries and territories. 7.20% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI Sector Country Market Cap Bookings USA 70,645 Million Eur EBITDA Net Million USD Sales EBITDA PER margin income 2018 14,525 5,730 39.4% 4,308 2019 14,517 6,061 40.2% 4,271 2020 E 7,449 1,434 19.3% 834 88,85 2021 E 12,131 4,168 34.4% 3,133 22,70 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 26
Carnival Corporation Global leader in cruiserships with a market share of 47% in worldwide number of passengers Operating in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia with 99 ships Brands: Carnival, Costa, P&O, Princess, Holland American, Aida, Cunard, Seabgur y Fathom. 10,8 Millions of passangers in 2015 4.58 % GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI Sector Country Market Cap Employees Cruises USA 12,540 M USD 97,000 EBITDA Net Million USD Sales EBITDA PER margin income 2019 18,568 4,904 26.4% 2,711 2020 E 8,735 61 0.7% -2,482 2021 E 13,141 2,361 18% -481 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 27
Meliá Hoteles Inc. Multi-brand hotel in 43 Countries: Luxury: Gran Meliá, ME and Paradisus: 27 hotels High-end: Meliá and Innside: 119 hotels Mid-range: Tryp and Sol: 168 hotels 61% Resorts, 39 % City Company owns, manage, rent and allow franchise to hotels all around the world 6.81% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI Sector Country Market Cap Employees Hotels Spain 1,062 Million Eur 25,146 Net Million EUR Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin PER income 2019 1,800 482 26.8% 112 2020 E 1,081 118 11% -114 2021 E 1,484 350 23.6% 13 35,91 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 28
Dufry, AG Main operator of airport shops worldwide with a market share of 24% 2,200 shops in 63 countries 89% revenues at airports, 5% in citites, 4% in train stations and 2% in cruises 30% revenues in perfumes and cosmetic articles, 17% revenues in sweets and food, 15% wines and liqueurs, 13% luxury goods Duty-free sales (tax-free): 63%, sales Duty-paid sales (with taxes): 37% 4.02% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI Sector Country Market Cap Employees Airports Stores Switzerland 1,896 M CHF 29,879 EBITDA Net Milion CHF Sales EBITDA PER margin Income 2019 7,956 2,038 25.6% 18 2020 E 4,701 1,024 21.8% -443 2021 E 6,805 1,776 26.1% 162 54,63 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 29
Trigano French motorhome manufacturer 25% market share in Europe Different factories within the EU Deep knowledge of the customer needs François Feuillet: President & CEO 1.64% Pareturn GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Sector Country Market Cap Employees 1,601 Motorhomes France 6,034 Million EUR EBITDA Net Million EUR Sales EBITDA PER Margin Income 2007 935 72 7.6% 31 2019 2,328 236 10.2% 168 2020 E 2,012 160 8% 107 16.05 2021 E 2,246 218 9.7% 143 11.37 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 30
Autogrill SpA Autogrill S.p.A., an Italian multinational company. Operates in various countries offering food and beverage and retail services for people on the move on key motorways, main rail and air hubs around the world. The Company conducts the majority of its business in North America and Italy where it obtained concessions, offering a wide portfolio of brands and food and beverage products. 2.12% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI Sector Country Market Cap Employees Food & Beverages Italy 1,432 M € 3000 EBITDA Net Million EUR Sales EBITDA PER Margin Income 2019 5,393 798 14.8% 60 2020 E 3,373 247 7.3% -140 2021 E 4,372 437 10% 45 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 31
SIXT Leading car rental company in Germany with a 35% market share and second player in Europe with a 14% market share. Most profitable company in the sector with a solid financial position. 3.91% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI Sector Country Market Cap Employees Car Rental and 3,264 Germany 6,202 Transport Million Eur Margin Net Millions € Sales EBITDA EBITDA Income 2007 1.569 521 33,2% 94 2019 3,306 1,115 33.7% 239 2020 E 2,174 650 29.9% 73 50,4 2021 E 2,699 890 33% 184 20,06 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 32
TUI AG TUI AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides tourism services worldwide. It operates hotels and resorts under the Robinson, Riu, TUI Blue, and TUI Magic Life brands, as well as involved in the tour operation and airlines businesses. The company also operates cruise liners; and provides incoming agency services. It operates a fleet of 1,600 travel agencies and online portals; 6 airlines with approximately 150 aircrafts; and 16 cruise liners, as well as approximately 380 hotels. TUI AG is based in Hanover, Germany. 2.93% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI Sector Country Market Cap Employees Airlines - Germany 3,144 M EUR 60,839 EBITDA Net Million EUR Sales EBITDA PER Margin Income 2018 19,679 1,958 10.0% 723.1 2019 18,928 1,110 5.9% 527 2020 E 13,329 -273 -2% -1,119 2021 E 16,828 1,134 6.7% 181 17,6 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 33
The Rational Behind of the fund sample: Save Spa Venice top 10 destinations worldwide 4.5 Million tourist arrivals in 2018 Very High Demand Marco Polo It owns 100% of Marco Polo Airport in Venice (8,8 Millions of passengers in 2015) and 80% of Treviso Airport (2,4 Millions of passengers in 2015. Low-cost oriented), both covering the High Demand Venice aereal Access. & In addition, it owns 40% of Verona and Brescia Limited Airports and 27% of Charleroi Airport Supply II Monopoly | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 34
SAVE Bid in April 17 Fully Sold at the 21 EUR bid Average cost: 12.03 EUR +74,6% | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 35
Red Flags & Concerns Historically USD/Barrel over 94.6$ 86,598,831 * 0.04 ------------------------- 100.3 * 365 Today 43$, 54.5% below Historically 2.6% GDP growth its a decreasing trend for develop economies and private companies IMF 2018/2019/2020 3.6%/ 3.0%/ 3.4% Clearly above that level (Due the Covid-19 2020 will be deep below, we expect a huge rebound 2020 4Q and 2021) | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 36
Investment Universe Investment Universe >250M USD market capitalization Business Companies Business Empresas Airlines 103 Airlines 65 Hotels 328 Hotels 48 Entertaiment 207 Entertaiment 45 Food & Beverages 299 Food & Beverages 100 Travel & Tourism 252 Travel & Tourism 86 Highways & Airports 62 Highways & Airports 37 Luxury 79 Luxury 79 Total 1,330 Total 460 0.31% 10.02% 3.91% 44.81% 40.59% Australia, NZ & Pacific Islands Asia Japan Europe USA | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 37
Portfolio Composition Portfolio April 30th 2020 % Equity 97.95% Number of Sectors % Assets Companies Holdings 41 Hotels 28.92% 7 Airlines 13.08% 6 Airport and motorways 11.85% 6 Ranked (0 to 10) Bookings 11.03% 3 Value/Growth 5.76 Cruises 8.38% 3 Small/Large 5.72 Airports Stores 4.06% 1 Car Rental 3.58% 1 Casinos 3.52% 2 Luxury 3.27% 2 Number of Regions % Assets Food & Beverages 2.93% 4 Companies Europe 41.51% 15 Motor homes 1.87% 1 US 39.90% 17 Financial Services 1.81% 1 Asia ex Japan 12.95% 6 Travel Agencies 1.70% 2 Japan 3.31% 2 Australia 0.28% 1 Theme Parks 1.09% 1 Aircraft Builder 0.86% 1 | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 38
Performances June 30th 2020 (Class I) 19 17 15 13 11 GVC Gaesco 300 Places 9 Worldwide +32.82% 7 GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Year YTD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Set Oct Nov Dec 2014 26.81% -0.68% -1.29% 6.82% -4.21% -1.67% 1.43% -0.10% 0.83% 4.69% 2.51% 2015 17.47% 6.49% 6.31% 5.28% -4.24% 1.46% -2.75% 4.12% -5.64% -0.49% 9.47% -0.58% -1.96% 2016 4.15% -10.23% 3.84% 3.78% -0.93% 0.27% -5.36% 4.71% -0.19% 1.25% 1.39% 4.31% 2.31% 2017 19.65% 2.30% 2.07% 3.30% 3.43% 2.14% 0.27% -1.19% 0.23% 2.05% 3.10% -0.39% 0.89% 2018 -6.46% 3.54% -0.15% -2.11% 6.87% 3.63% -2.02% 0.50% -1.58% -1.68% -6.14% 2.80% -9.21% 2019 15.60% 5.58% 1.35% -0.31% 3.20% -8.21% 4.63% 2.17% -3.58% 1.93% 2.26% 3.52% 2.87% 2020 -40.99% -6.67% -15.74% -32.99% 12.13% 3.46% -3.47% Annualized Return 6Y 0.12% | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 39
World Tourism Fund (Japan) AUM Vs. NAV ¥2,600,000,000 10,500 ¥2,100,000,000 9,500 8,500 ¥1,600,000,000 7,500 ¥1,100,000,000 6,500 ¥600,000,000 5,500 ¥100,000,000 4,500 *Source: Bloomberg AUM NAV | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 40
Useful data
Useful Data. Pareturn GVC Gaesco 300 Places Global Equity GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI Category Global Equity Clase A Clase P Clase I Launching Date 21/02/2014 Benchmark Stoxx Global 1800 Travel & Leisure Index USD ISIN ES0157638000 ES0157638026 ES0157638018 NAV Calculation Daily Management Fee 2.25% 1.50% 0.75% Currency Eur Asset manager GVC Gaesco Gestión, SGIIC Minimum 1 Share 500,000 10€ /1,000,000€ Depositary BNP Paribas Spain investment Eur Bloomberg Ticker GVGAESA SM GVGAESP SM GVGAESI SM Pareturn GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Equity Fund Category Global Equity R Class I Class (EUR-USD) U Class Launching Date 21/02/2014 Benchmark Stoxx Global 1800 Travel & Leisure Index USD ISIN LU1954206709 LU1954206881 LU1954206618 NAV calculation Daily Management Fee 1.35% 0.75% 0.35% Management Company MDO Investment Manager GVC Gaesco Gestión, SGIIC Minimum investment 300,000 10€ /10$ 10,000,000 Eur/Usd Transfer Agent BNP Securities Services Luxembourg Depositary BNP Securities Services Luxembourg Bloomberg Ticker Auditor Deloitte Fund Administration BNP Securities Services Luxembourg | www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 42
Legal Disclaimer The present information has an advertising nature of GVC Gaesco Valores, SV. SA and purely informative purpose to the recipients, complying with the rules of conduct applied to all investment services. Therefore, it has been tried that the information is sufficient and understandable for any likely recipient of it. GVC Gaesco Valores S.V. S.A. is member of the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores with number 182, is member of Bolsas de Barcelona, Madrid and Valencia, settlement and custody member of MEFF and debt manager with total capacity GVC Gaesco Beka is a brokerage firm legally authorized to render investment services as referred in the article 63 of la Ley del Mercado de Valores and its ordinance, particularly the Real Decreto 217/2008, on the 15th February, on the law for investment services companies, the Ministerial Order on 7th October 1999 of developing the general code of conduct on portfolio managing and the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) 2/2001, 30th May circular The competent authorities that regulate GVC Gaesco activities are Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores, Paseo de la Castellana, 19, 28046 Madrid; Banco de España, Alcalá, 48, 28014 Madrid GVC Gaesco Valores is subjected to Fondo de Garantía de Inversiones (FOGAIN) in accordance with the current law, FOGAIN, Paseo de la Habana, 82, 28036 Madrid GVC Gaesco Valores renders the client the following contract services: - Postal mail to GVC Gaesco Valores S.V. S.A., Calle Fortuny, 17, 28001 Madrid / Dr. Ferran, 3 - 5, 08034 Barcelona - Telephone service 914 315 606 / 933 662 727 / 955 328 500 / 961 394 965 - Switchboard telephone / fax 902 237 237 / 915 762 937 / 93 550 47 75 - Corporate e-mail info@gvcgaesco.es General information on GVC Gaesco Valores, as well as information related to agents are available on the website www.valores.gvcgaesco.com. Client’s can communicate with GVC Gaesco Valores in Spanish and Catalan.
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