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Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020 Understanding the impacts of Covid-19 on global CO2 emissions Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020 is part of the IEA Global Energy Review series. Global Energy Review 2021 will be published in April 2021, providing detailed analysis of the outlook for energy demand and CO2 emissions in 2021.
Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
The Covid-19 pandemic resulted in the largest-ever
decline in global emissions
The Covid-19 pandemic and resulting economic crisis had an impact on almost
every aspect of how energy is produced, supplied, and consumed around the
world. The pandemic defined energy and emissions trends in 2020 – it drove down
fossil fuel consumption for much of the year, whereas renewables and electric
vehicles, two of the main building blocks of clean energy transitions, were largely
immune.
As primary energy demand dropped nearly 4% in 2020, global energy-related CO2
emissions fell by 5.8% according to the latest statistical data, the largest annual
percentage decline since World War II. In absolute terms, the decline in emissions
of almost 2 000 million tonnes of CO2 is without precedent in human history –
broadly speaking, this is the equivalent of removing all of the European Union’s
emissions from the global total. Demand for fossil fuels was hardest hit in 2020 –
especially oil, which plunged 8.6%, and coal, which dropped by 4%. Oil’s annual
decline was its largest ever, accounting for more than half of the drop in global
emissions. Global emissions from oil use plummeted by well over 1 100 Mt CO2,
down from around 11 400 Mt in 2019. The drop in road transport activity accounted
for 50% of the decline in global oil demand, and the slump in the aviation sector
for around 35%. Meanwhile, low-carbon fuels and technologies, in particular, solar
PV and wind, reached their highest ever annual share of the global energy mix,
increasing it by more than one percentage point to over 20%.
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PAGE | 2Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
Global energy-related CO2 emissions and change in CO2 emissions by fuel, 1990-2020
40
Gt CO2
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2.0
Gt CO2
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Coal Oil Gas
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Global CO2 emissions fell by almost 2 Gt in 2020, the largest ever absolute decline.
Emissions from oil dropped by an unprecedented 1.1 Gt.
Transport sees the biggest decline
A common theme across all economies is the scale of the impact of the pandemic
and lockdown measures on transport activity. The decline in CO2 emissions from
oil use in the transport sector accounted for well over 50% of the total global drop
in CO2 emissions in 2020, with restrictions on movement at local and international
levels leading to a near 1 100 Mt drop in emissions from the sector, down almost
14% from 2019 levels. With various travel advisories and border restrictions,
international aviation was the sector hardest hit in 2020, with global flight activity
reaching a low in April 2020 of 70% below the level in the same month a year
earlier. In contrast to pre-crisis levels, emissions from international aviation fell by
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PAGE | 3Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
almost 45% or 265 Mt CO2 across the year to a level last seen in 1999. This decline
is equivalent to taking around 100 million conventional cars off the road.
Road transport was also severely affected, with its demand for oil dropping 10%
relative to 2019. The impact of the pandemic on global car sales was even greater:
these fell by close to 15%. Electric cars bucked this trend, however, with their
sales growing by more than 40% in 2020 to over 3 million, largely driven by policy
support in the European Union and stimulus measures in the People’s Republic
of China (“China”). This is an encouraging sign for clean energy transitions
globally, although emissions growth last year from the continued shift towards
larger vehicles such as SUVs offset the decrease in emissions from higher electric
car sales.
With transport typically accounting for around 60% of oil demand, and the drop in
oil demand contributing the largest share to the decline in 2020 emissions, the
recovery of global transport activity is an important bellwether for the rebound in
global oil demand and in global CO2 emissions. In emerging economies, the
recovery of road transport activity through the second half of 2020 was one of the
principal drivers of the rebound in emissions. In advanced economies, road
transport activity remained supressed through the second half of 2020 relative to
2019 levels.
Road transport and aviation activity for selected emerging economies in 2020
Road transport activity Aviation activity
140% 140%
120% 120%
100% Indonesia 100%
80% Brazil 80%
South Africa
60% 60%
China
40% India 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
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Note: Road transport and aviation activity (measured by the number of flights) are relative to a January 2020 baseline.
Source: IEA analysis based on Apple Mobility and OAG data.
Road transport activity in emerging economies has rebounded from early 2020 lows,
driving a rebound in global emissions. Aviation activity is yet to recover in most regions.
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PAGE | 4Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
Power sector decarbonisation accelerates
In the power sector, CO2 emissions declined by 3.3% (or 450 Mt) in 2020, the
largest relative and absolute fall on record. While the pandemic reduced electricity
demand last year, the accelerating expansion of power generation from
renewables was the biggest contributor to lower emissions from the sector. The
share of renewables in global electricity generation rose from 27% in 2019 to 29%
in 2020, the biggest annual increase on record. Over the last ten years, the rise of
renewables in the power sector has been having a growing impact on that sector’s
emissions, with avoided carbon emissions growing by an average 10% each year.
Despite the shock of the pandemic, renewables accelerated their expansion in
2020, with a 50% increase in their contribution to lowering power sector emissions
relative to 2019.
Global electricity generation mix and change in the power sector emissions by effect,
2010-2020
Electricity generation mix Change in power sector emissions
45% 1 000
Mt CO2
40% 800
35% 600
30% 400
25% 200
20%
15% - 200
10% - 400
5% - 600
- 800
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables Coal-to-gas Electricity demand
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The uptake of renewables in the power sector accelerated in 2020, despite the pandemic,
with CO2 emissions reductions due to renewables increasing by 50% in 2020.
Monthly data show a rapid recovery of economic activity
and rebounding CO2 emissions
At a regional level, the different responses to the pandemic impacted emissions in
different ways. On average, advanced economies saw the steepest declines in
annual emissions in 2020, averaging drops of almost 10%, while emissions from
emerging market and developing economies fell by 4% relative to 2019. Most
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PAGE | 5Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
economies saw a decline of five-to-ten percentage points compared to recent
rates of emissions growth, with lesser declines in Brazil and most notably, China.
The only major economy to record an increase in annual CO2 emissions in 2020,
China’s emissions growth slowed by just one percentage point compared with its
average rate over the 2015 to 2019 period.
Change in annual CO2 emissions in selected regions and countries, 2020 and
historically
100 10%
Mt CO2
0 0%
-100 -10%
-200 -20%
-300 -30%
-400 -40%
-500 -50%
United European India Russia Japan United Brazil China
States Union Kingdom
Absolute change in 2020 Right axis: Growth rate 2020 Average growth rate 2015-2019
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Advanced economies contributed the most to emissions declines in 2020, while China
was the only major economy to see a year-on-year increase in emissions.
Last year, for the first time the IEA began to track energy demand and CO2
emissions trends on a monthly basis – and in some cases, in real-time. This
provides a valuable tool for understanding the impacts of the pandemic on the
energy sector. In January 2020, weather was the major driver of lower global CO2
emissions relative to 2019, with heating needs in major economies such as the
United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Russia 15% to 20% lower than
in January 2019, due to milder-than-usual weather. The impact of the pandemic
started to be felt in late February; and, by April, global emissions registered their
largest monthly drop when a majority of advanced economies experienced various
forms of restrictions on movement and travel. As the first wave of the pandemic
was brought under control and economic activity increased towards the middle of
the year, emissions increased. They continued to rebound through the rest of the
year. In December 2020, global emissions were 2% higher than they were in the
same month a year earlier.
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PAGE | 6Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
Monthly evolution of global CO2 emissions, 2020 relative to 2019
5%
0%
-5%
World
-10%
-15%
-20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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Global CO2 emissions rebounded rapidly, already surpassing 2019 levels in
December 2020.
Regional differences
Major emitters underpinned the rebound of global CO2 emissions in 2020, as a
pick-up in economic activity boosted energy demand, with many economies
already seeing emissions above pre-Covid levels. China, the first major economy
to emerge from the pandemic and lift restrictions, saw a 7% increase in emissions
in December 2020 compared with a year earlier. Emissions in India rose above
2019 levels in September as the economic environment improved and restrictions
were relaxed. Meanwhile, the Diwali holiday period in November 2020 (rather than
October, as in the previous year), as well as strikes in the agricultural sector,
temporarily lowered energy demand and emissions in November. In Brazil, the
recovery of road transport activity in September drove a recovery in oil demand,
while increases in gas demand in the later months of 2020 pushed emissions
above 2019 levels. Emissions in the United States fell by 10% in 2020. But on a
monthly basis, after hitting their lowest levels in April and May, they started to
bounce back. In December, US emissions were approaching the level seen in the
same month the year before, as greater economic activity and the combination
higher natural gas prices and of colder weather favoured an increase in coal use.
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PAGE | 7Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
Monthly evolution of CO2 emissions in selected major economies, 2020 relative to 2019
10%
China
0%
India
-10% United States
Brazil
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
IEA. All rights reserved.
Major emerging economies underpinned the rebound in global CO2 emissions, led by
China, where CO2 emissions in 2020 were already above 2019 levels in April.
In China, the world’s largest CO2 emitter and the first country to be impacted by
the Covid-19 pandemic, CO2 emissions dropped by 12% in February relative to
the same month in 2019, as economic activity was curtailed. In April, China’s
economic recovery lifted its monthly CO2 emissions above their 2019 level. For
the remainder of the year, emissions in China were on average 5% higher than
2019 levels. The latest annual figures indicate that the country’s overall CO2
emissions in 2020 were 0.8% (or 75 Mt CO2) above the levels assessed at the end
of 2019.
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PAGE | 8Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
Monthly change in CO2 emissions in China in 2020 relative to 2019
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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In India, annual CO2 emissions declined by 7% (or 160 Mt CO2) in 2020, a stark
contrast with its average emissions growth of 3.3% from 2015 to 2019. With India’s
almost 1.4 billion citizens in total lockdown during April 2020, emissions in that
month fell by a staggering 40% compared with April 2019, the largest decline in a
single month experienced by any major economy. Annual emissions from coal-
fired power plants across India fell by 5% relative to 2019, adjusting to lower
electricity demand while generation from renewables grew by close to 4%,
increasing their share in the generation mix to 22%. With most industrial
production and freight transport coming to a standstill during the lockdown, annual
emissions from the transport and industry sectors both declined by close to
50 Mt CO2. This resulted in the lowest recorded levels of air pollution in recent
years in many major Indian cities. In September, a rebound in economic activity
saw energy demand in India return to 2019 levels, albeit a low bar given the
economic slowdown towards the end of 2019.
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PAGE | 9Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
Monthly change in CO2 emissions in India in 2020 relative to 2019
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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The impact of the pandemic on advanced economies endured well beyond the
initial lockdowns of March and April. Economic activity remained at lower levels
for much of the second half of the year and dropped again in the final months of
2020 as new restrictions on movement were imposed in many countries.
Nonetheless, the impact of a second wave of lockdowns on energy demand was
lower than that of earlier lockdowns, and many advanced economies are already
well on the way to seeing a recovery in their emissions.
In the United States, the lack of national lockdowns mitigated the impact of the
enduring health crisis on overall energy use and emissions. Nonetheless, stay-at-
home orders in several states and the economic crisis induced by the pandemic
led overall annual CO2 emissions to decline by more than 10%, or almost
500 Mt CO2. Transport emissions fell the most, with a 14% decline as activity
plummeted in April. Emissions in the United States have been on a declining trend
in recent years, largely due to changes in the power sector. With a strong coal-to-
gas shift as natural gas prices have moved towards historic lows, and the rapid
growth of renewables, emissions from coal-fired power generation declined 27%
from 2015 to 2019. This trend accelerated in 2020, with monthly inflation adjusted
gas prices hitting an all-time low of USD 1.63 per million British thermal units in
June at Henry Hub, and lower electricity demand driving emissions from coal
generation down by a further 20%. However, coal demand would have fallen even
further if not for the increase in gas prices in the second half of the year and the
subsequent reversal of some coal-to-gas switching. This trend combined with
colder temperatures to push up emissions in December.
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PAGE | 10Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
Monthly change in CO2 emissions in the United States in 2020 relative to 2019
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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Across the European Union, a region that saw multiple restrictions and
lockdowns being imposed in almost all member states, annual CO2 emissions fell
by 10% relative to 2019. Lower electricity demand across the bloc and an 8%
increase in output from renewables drove a more than 20% decline in coal-fired
power generation. As a result, the share of renewables in electricity generation
increased to a record 39% in 2020, four percentage points higher than in 2019.
Transport oil demand fell by 12%, a consequence of strict lockdown measures
and restrictions on intra-European movement. In Germany, overall energy-related
CO2 emissions dropped by almost 9% in 2020, with generation from coal-fired
power plants falling by over 20% due to lower electricity demand and higher output
from wind and solar. In France, annual emissions were 11% lower than in 2019,
with emissions from transport declining by almost 20 Mt CO2 and accounting for
60% of the total reduction in France’s emissions as a result of the two nationwide
lockdowns in the spring and autumn.
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PAGE | 11Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
Monthly change in CO2 emissions in the European Union in 2020 relative to 2019
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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How will 2020 affect future emissions trends?
While 2020 marked the largest absolute decline in global CO2 emissions in
history, the evidence of a rapid rebound in energy demand and emissions in many
economies underscores the risk that CO2 emissions will increase significantly this
year. What happens to energy demand and emissions in 2021 and beyond will
depend on how much emphasis governments put on clean energy transitions in
their efforts to boost their economies in the coming months. Avoiding a rebound
in emissions requires rapid structural changes in how we use and produce energy.
The IEA Sustainable Recovery report, published in June 2020, outlined a pathway
to avoid a rebound in emissions, with the Sustainable Recovery Plan providing
clear recommendations on how to create jobs, boost economic growth and
significantly reduce emissions simultaneously.
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PAGE | 12Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
Total energy related CO2 emissions with and without a sustainable recovery, 2005-2023
37
Gt CO2
Without a
35 sustainable
recovery
33
With a
sustainable
31
recovery
29
27
25
2005 2010 2015 2020 2023
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2021 is set to be a decisive year for global CO2 emissions. Decisions taken today and in
the coming months can unlock a sustainable recovery and put emissions in
structural decline.
Ensuring that 2019 marks a definitive peak in global CO2 emissions will be
extremely challenging, but last year offers some valuable lessons that provide
cause for optimism as we look ahead. Many power systems successfully kept the
lights on, allowing hospitals to function or communication systems to operate with
much higher shares of variable renewables. This provides a glimpse of things to
come and offers greater confidence in operating large electricity systems powered
with higher shares of renewables. Further, consumer preference for electric
vehicles continues to grow, as does the number of electric vehicle models
available.
Data sources and method
The IEA draws upon a wide range of respected statistical sources to construct
estimates for the year 2020 and the month-to-month evolutions of energy demand
and CO2 emissions. Sources include the latest monthly data submissions to the
IEA Energy Data Centre (including December 2020 when available), real-time
data from power system operators across the world, other statistical releases from
national administrations, and recent market data from the IEA Market Report
Series that covers coal, oil, natural gas, renewables and electricity. Where data
are not available on an annual or monthly basis, estimates may be used.
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PAGE | 13Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020
CO2 emissions include emissions from all uses of fossil fuels for energy purposes.
CO2 emissions do not include emissions from industrial processes, industrial
waste and non-renewable municipal waste. CO2 emissions from international
marine and aviation bunkers are included at the world level only.
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PAGE | 14This publication reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat but does not necessarily reflect
those of individual IEA member countries. The IEA makes no representation or warranty,
express or implied, in respect of the publication’s contents (including its completeness or
accuracy) and shall not be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the publication.
Unless otherwise indicated, all material presented in figures and tables is derived from IEA
data and analysis.
This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries
and to the name of any territory, city or area.
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IEA Publications
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Website: www.iea.org
Contact information: www.iea.org/about/contact
Typeset in France by IEA - March 2020
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