Global COVID-19 Cases Exceed Four Million; Some Countries with Eased Restrictions See Cases Climbing
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Worldwide – May 13, 2020
Global COVID-19 Cases
Exceed Four Million;
Some Countries with
Eased Restrictions
See Cases Climbing
Authors: Stephanie Kiefer, Senior Regional Analyst – Europe, the Caucasus, & Central Asia
Samson Sampson, Senior Regional Analyst – Middle East & North Africa
Kimberly Doyle, Senior Regional Analyst – Sub-Saharan Africa
Zachary Nelson, Senior Regional Analyst – Latin America & the Caribbean
Josh Strongin, Lead Intelligence Analyst – North America
Zachary Huffman, Regional Analyst – Asia/Pacific
Contact: Stephanie.Kiefer@everbridge.com
OVERVIEW
The global number of confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has
exceeded 4.2 million people and more than 291,000 associated deaths have
been reported, according to Johns Hopkins University. On May 11, WHO
officials cautioned against “herd immunity” concepts, and that many people in a
given population may remain vulnerable to infection in the event of resurgent
outbreaks. The WHO also remarked that multiple countries had seen new cases
climb back up following the easing of restrictions, including South Korea, China,
and Germany, while noting that those three countries have testing and tracing
systems to respond to any resurgent outbreaks. The WHO has also expressed
concern at the level of healthcare workers around the world who have been
contracting COVID-19, with some countries having more than ten percent of
total cases being healthcare personnel, and the WHO said it is seeking to
minimize such infections. The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
cautioned on May 12 that the global economic forecast is worsening, and that it
would release updated analysis next month likely projecting declines beyond the
three percent contraction of global output already forecast in April by the IMF.
Cumulative COVID-19 Cases per 100,000, as of Tuesday, May 12
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
SPREAD OF COVID-19: EUROPE
Overall, European countries continue to take measures for the phased easing of lockdown
restrictions, though countries such as Russia and Belarus have active outbreaks not yet under
control. A package of proposals regarding border control, transport, and tourism is expected to be
adopted by the European Commission on May 13. The raft of protocols and guidance is expected to
be closely scrutinized by countries with high proportions of their GDP in the tourism sector, as well as
for Europeans wondering when and how travel at least within the bloc may be possible in the coming
months. Media reports have suggested that the European Union may recommend that countries with
similar (low) risk profiles for COVID-19 open for travel amongst each other.
The European Asylum Support Office (EASO), a European Union agency, has said that the number
of asylum seekers arriving in Europe has dropped during lockdown measures, but that instability in
regions such as the Middle East and North Africa could be exacerbated by the pandemic and drive an
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Distribution of New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Per Day in EU/EEA and UK
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
increase in migrants attempting to reach Europe. Among the concerns cited by EASO that could drive
asylum seekers to arrive in Europe are poor security conditions, any revival of extremist groups such
as Islamic State, and food insecurity. A resurgence of migration could add to ongoing challenges in
Europe, including southern European countries still struggling to manage current migrant populations.
• The Commission recently requested Schengen zone countries extend a prohibition on non-
Europeans entering the EU and Schengen countries to June 15. The restrictions, instituted by
each country rather than mandated by the Commission, could be extended and/or modified
• Norwegian officials reported on May 11 that they have seen no “negative effect” following the
initial reopening of schools and nurseries from April 20, with further resumption of educational
facilities planned for this week.
• All workers at slaughterhouses and meat processing facilities in the German state of North
Rhine-Westphalia are expected to be tested by the end of this week in response to outbreaks
linked to such facilities that have continued operating through the epidemic.
• France’s finance minister is holding talks with automotive industry representatives this week
and is calling for car manufacturers to shift a greater level of production to France as a
condition for receiving state aid.
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• Icelandic officials said on May 12 that it plans to ease restrictions for international visitors by
June 15, a step to reviving the country’s tourism industry with conditions in place to maintain
control of potential outbreak activity.
• While Serbia has been easing restrictions with declining case numbers, government
supporters and opponents have been holding demonstrations in Belgrade related to a planned
parliamentary election in June. Adjacent groups on Monday were peaceful and separated by
police, though additional confrontations remain possible and crowds in close quarters may
drive further COVID-19 cases.
• Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said on May 12 that he is seeking to draw down all
controls on its border with Switzerland by June, and some measures may be eased within the
coming days as discussions with Swiss officials progress.
• Ryanair announced that it plans to resume 40 percent of flights from the start of June, with the
intention of having a greater variety of available destinations rather than concentrating on more
frequent services on busier routes.
• The Bank of France reported that economic activity nationwide dropped 27 percent in April in
comparison to pre-pandemic projections, but that economic activity had modestly risen over
March. The central bank cautioned that “it will be a long way” for companies reactivating from
two months of lockdown.
• About 500 police have been involved in a nationwide operation against mafia clans on May 12,
with more than 90 people arrested in Sicily. Authorities targeted groups and individuals plotting
to exploit the epidemic and associated impacts, including targeting vulnerable companies hit
hard by government restrictions.
• Switzerland has been easing lockdown restrictions, including for stores, markets, restaurants,
and schools, now able to resume operations with precautionary measures in effect to mitigate
infection.
Updates Around the Region
Denmark
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that the government is forming a new agency, situated
within the ministry of justice, that will be responsible for preparing for future epidemics, including a
potential second wave of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the chief epidemiologist said it was “very unlikely”
that Denmark suffers a second wave of COVID-19. The Danish government has also revised what is
considered a safe distance – now one meter (3.2 feet) instead of two meters. With the second phase
of easing restrictions this week, shopping centers and restaurants are able to reopen with appropriate
measures in place.
France
A law extending France’s state of emergency through July 10 has come into effect, while the easing
of lockdown restrictions started on Monday, May 11. The country has been able to start different
levels of deconfinement based on a two-color map, with much of the northeast, including Paris,
remaining under a tighter lockdown regime, though stipulations such as declarations to leave a
residence are no longer in place. In Paris, masks are required in the metro system. For those using
the system during rush hour, they must have a certificate provided by their employer that states why
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Map of French Departments, with Red Departments Remaining Under Tighter
Restrictions
Source: French Government
an employee is traveling during peak times. On May 11, police arrested several Yellow Vest
protesters who had attempted to demonstrate at Place de la Republique in Paris despite ongoing
COVID-19 restrictions in the capital. In Nantes, about 300 people recently protested outside of a
hospital to voice opposition to the government’s management of the COVID-19 epidemic in France
and to express solidarity with healthcare staff.
Germany
On Monday, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported that the virus reproduction rate was
approximately 1.07, easing back from 1.13 reported on Sunday, indicating that the spread of COVID-
19 had slightly exceed the 1.0 mark, with anything higher than 1.0 indicating exponential spreading of
the virus. The recent rise in the reproduction number (also known as the R number) prompted officials
to re-emphasize the importance of observing practices to mitigate the spread of the virus, with
lockdown restrictions eased and states able to set their own path for reopening. By Tuesday, RKI
reported that the rate of transmission had dropped back to 0.94 and stated that another increasing
trend is not anticipated at this time. The uptick is believed to be tied to recent clusters reported among
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employees of meat processing facilities, many of whom live in close quarters at dormitories often
housing workers from other countries.
Over the weekend, several thousand people joined protests around Germany (including in Berlin,
Munich, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Dortmund, and Thuringia), primarily in opposition to government
restrictions from the COVID-19 epidemic. Multiple lawmakers have expressed concern that the
demonstrations could be used by political extremists to recruit supporters, as well as espousing
ideology such as anti-vaccination beliefs. While isolated, there have also been instances of violence
over COVID-19 measures; On May 11 in Troisdorf, North Rhine-Westphalia, two people attacked
police officers who responded to a call when the two individuals entered a supermarket but refused to
wear required masks.
Italy
On May 11, Italy reported that there were fewer than 1,000 COVID-19 intensive care patients
nationwide, the first such occurrence in two months. The Italian government announced that regional
governments can accelerate reopenings at their discretion for multiple commercial sectors, including
but not necessarily limited to restaurants, bars, and beauty salons, from May 18. Travel between
regions remains restricted to June 1, though there have been media reports that restrictions on social
gatherings may be eased from next week. There has been a reported uptick in new cases in Italy,
notably in the Lombardy region, though officials have attributed part of the increase to an
accumulation of confirmed cases from the past week being reported at once, instead of the typical
daily reporting of new cases.
Russia
Russia has reported ten consecutive days of new cases in excess of 10,000, and with more than
232,000 total confirmed cases, it has a total case count second only to the United States. President
Vladimir Putin announced that the nationwide stretch of “non-working days” would conclude on May
12. The announcement on May 11 occurred as more than 11,000 new daily cases were reported and
Russia continue to have one of the fastest growth rates of the virus globally. After Putin’s remarks,
Russian Health Minister Tatiana Golikova said that only 11 regions out of 85 in the country are
positioned to ease their restrictions. Moscow had extended overall restrictions to the end of the
month, though factory workers and those in construction are allowed to return to work around the
country. Criticism continues that the general public and regional authorities are not receiving sufficient
support to combat the epidemic in Russia and to endure the corresponding economic crisis.
Investigations have been launched into two recent deadly fires to determine whether the fires may
have started from malfunctions of the Aventa-M ventilator manufactured by KRET, the same model of
ventilator as Russia had sent to the United States to aid the latter’s COVID-19 response.
Spain
As Spain continues with a phased easing of its strict lockdown measures, officials announced that
international travelers arriving in Spain from May 15 will be required to self-quarantine for 14 days
(with limited exceptions such as healthcare workers and goods transporters). Those in self-quarantine
would be allowed to leave their quarantine location for essentials such as food and medicine, but will
be required to wear a mask. The country has recorded daily death tolls below 200 recently, and in
addition to ongoing concerns of preventing a second wave of local transmissions, officials are
describing the importation of COVID-19 as a primary risk to the country. More than 50 percent of the
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Map of Spanish Regions, with Darker Areas Remaining Under Phase 0 Restrictions
Source: Spanish Government
country has started Phase 1 of easing restrictions, though the major cities of Madrid and Barcelona
remain under tighter restrictions in Phase 0.
United Kingdom
Although the trend of deaths in hospitals continue to decrease, the British government continues to
face criticism for the level of deaths in care homes, despite such deaths also starting to decline. With
the inclusion of suspected COVID-19 deaths outside of hospitals, the latest total death toll from the
epidemic in the UK has surpassed 40,000, the highest official death toll in Europe. While Westminster
has espoused a four-nations approach to COVID-19 restrictions and the easing of measures, each of
the four home nations (England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland) hold power to determine
their own lockdown measures and any easing of such restrictions. Scotland, Wales, and Northern
Ireland have not announced comparable measures yet to start easing restrictions as has been
announced for England.
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7From May 13 in England, multiple sectors such as manufacturing, construction, logistics, and real
estate can resume full operations within “COVID-secure” provisions for worker safety, though the
government has urged people to continue with remote work as much as possible. Prime Minister
Boris Johnson said restrictions on activities occurring outdoors would be eased from May 13, though
calls by the government for observing physical distancing continues and fines are being raised for
repeat offenders of COVID-19 restrictions. At an unspecified future date, the government plans to
direct people, including British travelers, to self-isolate for 14 days upon arrival in the UK, regardless
of the means of arrival. People arriving from the Republic of Ireland and from France are being
exempted from the restrictions, though officials are still in discussions as to how to manage travelers
from third countries who may enter the UK via France or Ireland. The prospect of a required
quarantine period has sparked concern that such a policy could hamper the country’s recovery,
particularly for travel and hospitality sectors. The UK’s chancellor of the exchequer announced that
the job retention scheme will be extended to the end of October, though there will be modifications to
the scheme covering the August-October period.
The 60-page UK government document describing the reopening scheme (Our Plan to Rebuild: The
UK Government’s COVID-19 Recovery Strategy) can be found here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/88
4171/FINAL_6.6637_CO_HMG_C19_Recovery_FINAL_110520_v2_WEB__1_.pdf.
Guidance for workplaces resuming operations can be found here:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19.
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8Confirmed Cases Worldwide as of Tuesday Morning, May 12
Country/Region May 12 May 5 Country/Region May 12 May 5
United States 1,347,916 1,180,634 Indonesia 14,265 11,587
Spain 227,436 218,011 Colombia 11,613 7,973
United Kingdom 223,060 190,584 Philippines 11,086 9,485
Russia 221,344 145,268 South Korea 10,936 10,804
Italy 219,814 211,938 South Africa 10,652 7,220
Germany 170,508 163,860 Dominican Republic 10,634 8,235
Brazil 168,331 107,780 Denmark 10,513 9,670
Turkey 139,771 127,659 Serbia 10,176 9,557
France 139,519 131,863 Egypt 9,746 6,813
Iran 109,286 98,647 Kuwait 9,286 5,278
Mainland China 82,919 82,881 Panama 8,616 7,387
India 70,756 46,433 Czech Republic 8,176 7,819
Canada 69,981 60,772 Norway 8,106 7,847
Peru 68,822 47,372 Australia 6,948 6,825
Belgium 53,449 50,267 Malaysia 6,726 6,353
Netherlands 42,788 40,770 Morocco 6,281 5,043
Saudi Arabia 41,014 28,656 Argentina 6,021 4,874
Mexico 36,327 24,905 Finland 5,984 5,327
Pakistan 32,081 21,501 Algeria 5,891 4,648
Switzerland 30,261 29,898 Kazakhstan 5,240 4,121
Chile 30,063 20,643 Bahrain 5,236 3,533
Ecuador 29,509 31,881 Moldova 4,995 4,248
Portugal 27,679 25,524 Ghana 4,700 2,719
Sweden 26,670 22,721 Afghanistan 4,687 2,894
Belarus 23,906 17,489 Nigeria 4,641 2,802
Singapore 23,787 18,778 Luxembourg 3,888 3,828
Qatar 23,623 16,191 Oman 3,574 2,637
Ireland 23,135 21,722 Armenia 3,392 2,507
United Arab Emirates 18,878 14,730 Hungary 3,313 3,065
Israel 16,506 16,246 Thailand 3,015 2,987
Poland 16,326 14,006 Bolivia 2,831 1,681
Austria 15,874 15,621 Iraq 2,818 2,346
Japan 15,874 15,231 Greece 2,726 2,632
Bangladesh 15,691 10,143 Cameroon 2,689 2,104
Ukraine 15,648 12,331 Azerbaijan 2,589 1,984
Romania 15,588 13,512 Uzbekistan 2,509 2,189
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and various media outlets
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9Confirmed Cases Worldwide as of Tuesday Morning, May 12
May
Country/Region May 5 Country/Region May 12 May 5
12
Puerto Rico 2,256 1,843 Burkina Faso 760 672
Guinea 2,213 1,710 Andorra 756 750
Croatia 2,196 2,101 Paraguay 724 415
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2,142 1,926 Mali 712 580
Honduras 2,100 1,178 Uruguay 711 657
Bulgaria 1,990 1,652 Kenya 700 490
Diamond Princess Cruise
Senegal 1,886 1,271 Ship 696 696
Iceland 1,801 1,799 Tajikistan 661 230
Cuba 1,783 1,668 Georgia 638 593
Estonia 1,741 1,703 San Marino 628 582
Cote dIvoire 1,730 1,432 Jordan 562 465
North Macedonia 1,664 1,518 Palestine 547 524
United Republic of
Sudan 1,526 678 Tanzania 509 480
Lithuania 1,485 1,419 Jamaica 505 471
Slovenia 1,460 1,439 Malta 503 480
Slovakia 1,457 1,413 Taiwan 440 438
Djibouti 1,227 1,116 Equatorial Guinea 439 315
New Zealand 1,147 1,137 Venezuela 422 361
Guatemala 1,114 730 Sierra Leone 338 178
Democratic Republic of the Congo 1,102 684 Congo 333 236
Somalia 1,089 756 Mauritius 332 334
Hong Kong 1,047 1,040 Isle of Man 330 325
Kyrgyzstan 1,037 843 Montenegro 324 323
Tunisia 1,032 1,018 Chad 322 117
El Salvador 998 587 Benin 319 96
Latvia 946 896 Jersey 294 293
Cyprus 901 874 Vietnam 288 271
Maldives 897 551 Rwanda 285 261
Kosovo 884 855 Zambia 267 137
Albania 872 803 Cape Verde 260 175
Sri Lanka 869 755 Guernsey 252 252
Lebanon 859 740 Ethiopia 250 140
Niger 832 755 Sao Tome and Principe 212 174
Gabon 802 367 Liberia 211 166
Costa Rica 801 742 Haiti 209 100
Guinea Bissau 761 413 Faroe Islands 187 187
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and various media outlets
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10Confirmed Cases Worldwide as of Tuesday Morning, May 12
May May
Country/Region May 5 Country/Region May 5
12 12
Madagascar 186 149 Antigua and Barbuda 25 25
Togo 181 126 Timor Leste 24 24
Myanmar 180 161 Botswana 24 23
Central African Republic 179 94 Gambia 22 17
Eswatini 175 116 Grenada 21 21
South Sudan 156 46 Laos 19 19
Guam 152 149 Burundi 19 19
Gibraltar 147 144 Northern Mariana Islands 19 14
Brunei Darussalam 141 138 New Caledonia 18 18
Nepal 134 82 Belize 18 18
Cambodia 122 122 Fiji 18 18
Uganda 122 97 Saint Lucia 18 18
Bermuda 119 115 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 17 17
Trinidad and Tobago 116 116 Namibia 16 16
Guyana 109 92 Dominica 16 16
Mozambique 103 80 Curaçao 16 16
Aruba 101 100 Nicaragua 16 15
Monaco 96 95 Saint Kitts and Nevis 15 15
Bahamas 93 83 Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 13 13
Barbados 84 82 Turks and Caicos islands 12 12
Cayman Islands 84 75 Holy See 12 11
Liechtenstein 83 83 Greenland 11 11
Sint Maarten 76 76 Montserrat 11 11
United States Virgin Islands 69 66 Seychelles 11 11
Libya 64 63 Bhutan 11 7
French Polynesia 60 58 Comoros 11 4
Malawi 57 41 Suriname 10 10
Yemen 56 12 Papua New Guinea 8 8
Syria 47 44 Mauritania 8 8
Macau 45 45 British Virgin Islands 7 7
Angola 45 35 Bonaire, Saint Eustatius and Saba 6 6
Mongolia 42 41 Western Sahara 6 6
Eritrea 39 39 Anguilla 3 3
Zimbabwe 37 34
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and various media outlets
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11SPREAD OF COVID-19: ASIA/PACIFIC
The number of COVID-19 cases in the Asia-Pacific region has risen to more than 267,000, which is
an increase of 18 percent over last week. The number of deaths is at 10,124—an increase of 13
percent.
East Asia
Japan
• Japan continues to post a general decline in new confirmed cases of COVID-19, with several
days over the past week seeing fewer than 100 new cases nationwide. The government has
continued to face criticism over low test rates but on May 8 loosened the criteria required for
patients to be tested for the virus. Health officials will also review the use of antigen test kits
this week, which, if they are approved, will further expand testing in Japan. The country has
carried out around 214,000 total tests as of May 11.
o On May 8, Tokyo for the first time began releasing data regarding the percentage of
COVID-19 tests in the city that come back positive. According to officials, the positive
rate peaked at 31.6 percent in mid-April and has fallen since then. It was 7.5 percent on
May 8. The capital reported only 15 new cases on May 11, which marks nearly a week
of fewer than 40 new daily cases.
• The central government plans to decide by May 14 whether the state of emergency will be
lifted for 34 prefectures that have not been as seriously affected by the virus. The state of
emergency is expected to remain in place until at least May 31 for 13 more impacted
prefectures, including Tokyo, Osaka, and Hokkaido.
o As the outbreak in Japan appears to be on the decline, at least 27 prefectures, including
Nagano, Nagasaki, Nara, Shiga, Shizuoka, and Tochigi, have already begun to lift some
restrictions. These include some stay-at-home requirements and advice for business
closures, although some prefectures continue to request that residents restrict inter-
prefectural travel to only essential trips.
China
• As the outbreak in China appears to remain largely under control, the national government on
May 8 allowed the reopening of all entertainment locations, including restaurants and movie
theaters, provided they limit the number of patrons visiting at one time, and ensure that
customers wear masks and practice good social distancing. Restrictions issued by local
authorities may remain in place in some areas.
• At least six new COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Wuhan over the weekend, all in the same
residential community. These were the first cases confirmed in the city since April 3.
o According to local media, officials are creating plans to test the entire population of
Wuhan, although other government health authorities have stated that any expanded
testing in the city will likely focus on workers in the medical field and those likely to have
been exposed to the virus.
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12• The city of Shulan, in the northeastern Jilin Province, has implemented a lockdown following at
least 11 new cases being discovered over the weekend. Provincial capital Changchun and
Dongfeng County have begun requiring travelers from Shulan to quarantine for 14 days.
Shulan’s COVID-19 risk rating has been upgraded to high-risk by the government, while
neighboring Jilin City has been upgraded to medium-risk. The entire country had previously
been downgraded to low-risk.
Hong Kong
• The city began to allow bars, movie theaters, and some other locations to reopen on May 8.
Such businesses that reopen are required to operate at lowered capacity and maintain social
distancing precautions.
• Hong Kong has reported no new local transmission of COVID-19 in more than three weeks.
Recent imported cases have all been in the single digits and some days have seen no
imported cases at all.
• As the impacts of COVID-19 recede, pro-democracy protests in the city have begun to
accelerate, increasing in size and involving more arrests in recent days.
Southeast Asia
Singapore
• Although Singapore’s daily numbers of new cases have declined somewhat from their highs
toward the end of April, daily new cases still remain fairly steady, roughly within the 500 to 900
range over the past week.
o No new cases were reported on May 10 in connection to the largest cluster outbreak in
the city-state’s foreign worker dormitories. The S11 @ Punggol dormitory, where cases
were first discovered among migrant workers, had previously reported new cases every
day since April 1.
• Some businesses, including retail food shops and hairdressers, reopened on May 12. The
government has urged people to not crowd at recently reopened establishments.
Indonesia
• New cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia continue to climb steadily, reaching a new record daily
high of 533 on May 9.
o The government intends to increase production of domestic test kits to between 50,000
and 100,000 per month by the end of May.
• The government is considering a plan to reopen the economy and lift restrictions beginning on
June 1. The reopening would occur gradually and in phases, with shopping centers reopening
by June 8, and schools, movie theaters, salons, and sporting events restarting by June 15. The
full reopening would be completed by August under this plan, which is still tentative and has
not yet been approved by the government.
o Precautions such as social distancing and the wearing of masks would still be required
during reopening, and moving on to additional phases of reopening would be contingent
upon a decline in new cases and expanded testing.
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13Philippines
• Filipino officials report that the rate of positive test results in the Philippines has slowed, but
they warned that there is still a chance that the number of infections will continue to rise.
• Officials have said that the enhanced community quarantine in place for cities in Metro Manila
might be relaxed for cities that show declines in the number of new cases and where there is
healthcare capacity to provide treatment for those needing intensive care. Current restrictions
are due to be reviewed by May 15.
Thailand
• Thailand has reported new daily cases in the single digits for a week now.
• The government expects to further ease COVID-19 restrictions on May 17. Exact details of
what the relaxed regulations will entail are still being formulated and the government will be
analyzing the effectiveness of current measures until at least May 14, but it is likely that larger
business premises will be allowed to reopen on May 17 and people will be able to hold larger
gatherings. Large crowds are still expected to be restricted, however.
Vietnam
• Vietnam has reported no new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases in nearly a month.
• Non-essential businesses have been allowed to reopen with the exception of karaoke bars and
nightclubs. People may also participate in group sports again as long as sanitation measures
are followed.
South Asia
India
• The number of new cases of COVID-19 continues to rise in India, with more than 3,000 new
daily cases reported every day for the past week. A record 4,400 new cases were confirmed
on May 10. Government and World Health Organization (WHO) officials now report that the
country’s outbreak peak will come by late July.
o India’s national testing capacity has increased, with approximately 95,000 tests now
being performed every day. Some states, however, have reported statistics showing
that state-level testing rates have fallen in recent weeks.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that state officials will be given a greater role in setting
state-level restrictions after the national lockdown expires on May 18.
• Some train services restarted on May 12. Passengers are required to pass medical screenings
before boarding and must maintain social distancing onboard.
• Some tea plantations in Assam have been able to resume operations with their full workforces.
• The country continues to deal with issues of large numbers of people leaving quarantine
centers ahead of time, often over allegations of food and water shortages or poor hygiene
standards.
• Protests were held on May 11 in the state of Tripura over the resumption of cross-border
freight traffic with Bangladesh. Demonstrators blocked the passage of some trucks before
being removed by authorities.
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14Bangladesh
• The number of new COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh continues to rise. A daily record of
approximately 1,000 new cases were reported on May 11.
• According to government data, there were 444 protest incidents in April related to the non-
payment of wages at factories that had been closed due to COVID-19-related restrictions.
Nepal
• COVID-19 testing in Nepal remains sparse, but the country continues to show a general
upward trend in new cases. A record 57 new cases were reported on May 12, bringing the
country’s total to 191, up from 82 last week.
o The southern district of Parsa has the most confirmed cases.
• Nearly 50 Chinese nationals stranded in Kathmandu due to lockdown and travel restrictions
protested on May 8. Four were arrested and charged in connection to clashes with police that
occurred.
Maldives
• The Maldives continues to experience a sharp growth in new COVID-19 cases. The country’s
lockdown that is presently in place is set to expire on May 14 but is expected to be renewed.
The government has recently called for people to further restrict their travel. Government
officials now believe the country’s outbreak will peak around the end of May.
• Officials have stated that they expect the tourism industry to begin reopening to some extent
by July, with a full resumption of activities coming by October. The country’s borders will be
reopened once the virus is controlled.
Sri Lanka
• Sri Lanka’s numbers of daily new cases are on a general downward trend. Fewer than 30 new
daily cases have been reported over the past week.
• The country began to allow some businesses to resume with only essential workers on May
11. The country’s curfew remains in place, and employees are expected to arrive at their
workplaces between 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM local time and should depart between 3:00 PM
and 4:00 PM. Some non-essential shops have also reopened.
Oceania
Australia
• Prime Minister Scott Morrison on May 8 announced a three-step plan for lifting restrictions.
o In the first phase, restaurants, cafes, parks, and schools will be reopened, and up to ten
people will be able to gather for events.
o In the second phase, gatherings of up to 20 will be permitted, gyms, movie theaters,
and other businesses will be able to reopen with additional social distancing and
sanitizing precautions, and additional interstate travel will be allowed.
o In phase three, most people will be able to return to work, gatherings of up to 100
people will be permitted, and all interstate travel will restart. The government will also
consider the possibility of international travel to New Zealand and Pacific island nations
during phase three.
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15• The three phases will be implemented differently state by state depending on the decisions of
state officials, with most states and territories beginning starting to loosen restrictions under
the new guidelines this week.
• Melbourne has seen several COVID-19-related protests in recent days, including a
demonstration against anti-virus measures on May 10 that led to the arrest of ten people and
one police officer being injured, and a May 12 protest calling for the release of asylum-seekers
from detention facilities during the outbreak.
New Zealand
• New Zealand will move down to Level 2 of its restriction system beginning on May 14.
o Businesses such as restaurants, gyms, shopping centers, and movie theaters will be
allowed to reopen with social distancing in place. School can begin reopening on May
18, and bars will start to reopen on May 21.
SPREAD OF COVID-19: NORTH AMERICA
States Reporting COVID-19 Cases as of Tuesday, May 12
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
United States
The United States continues to report a stabilization of its COVID-19 outbreak with a recent four-day
stretch of declining daily case numbers. It remains to be seen whether this declining trend will be
sustained or if it is just an anomaly. It should be noted that two of the days involved occurred over the
weekend when case and death numbers have been consistently lower than the rest of the week.
Officials continue to suggest caution as much of the lower numbers appear to be buoyed by declines
in three areas that have seen a large portion of the U.S. outbreak, New York City, Detroit, and New
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16Orleans. Outside of those areas many states and localities have actually reported an increase in case
numbers. Nevertheless, states are continuing to loosen restrictions with at least 14 states lifting stay-
at-home orders and over 35 states initiating phased reopenings of nonessential businesses. Testing
continues to lag, which has led to underreported numbers of cases and deaths. A new study released
by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated over 5,000 additional
deaths in New York City alone that could be related to COVID-19. As of Tuesday, 1,358,900 COVID-
19 cases and 81,805 deaths have been reported in the United States.
Canada
Canada is also reporting a stabilization in COVID-19 cases and deaths including a slight decrease in
daily cases and deaths over the last several days. Similar to the United States, it remains to be seen
if this is an anomaly or a new trend. The weekend saw the lowest percentage increase in cases, 2.2
percent, since the initial outbreak began in March. Regardless, daily numbers have been moving in
the right direction and provinces and territories have begun to implement their phased reopening
plans. More northern communities and territories, which are more vulnerable to outbreaks, continue
to be cautious with reopening plans and many are continuing to use checkpoints to keep non-
residents out. As of Tuesday, at least 70,342 cases and 5,049 deaths have been reported across
Canada.
Recent Developments
• On Monday, Quebec became the first Canadian province or territory to allow in-person
schooling to resume. Classes were limited to a max of 15 students and libraries, gyms, and
cafeterias remained closed.
• Last week, the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced it would begin
requiring all airport security officers to wear face coverings in screening areas.
• Denver International Airport (DEN), San Francisco International Airport (SFO), and Los
Angeles International Airport (LAX) have required all airport personnel and passengers to wear
face coverings while Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA) announced it would begin
requiring face coverings at a yet to be announced date within the next few weeks.
• Frontier Airlines announced that beginning June 1, all passengers will be required to have their
temperatures checked prior to boarding. This is the first U.S. or Canadian airline requiring
temperature checks.
• As of May 11, Amtrak announced that all train passengers and employees will be required to
wear face coverings on trains and in stations.
• On Wednesday, May 6, three McDonald’s workers in Oklahoma City, OK, were shot and
injured by a customer after the customer became angry for being asked to leave as the dining
area of the restaurant was closed. None of the injuries were life-threatening and the customer
was subsequently arrested.
• The “big three” automobile producers (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, General Motors, and Ford
Motor Company) are expected to begin resuming production at their North America facilities
next week on May 18.
• Over the weekend an anti-lockdown protest was reported outside the Manitoba Legislative
Building in Winnipeg, Manitoba. The action had less than a hundred participants and remained
peaceful. The province began a phased reopening of nonessential businesses on May 4.
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17While protests such as these have become increasingly common in U.S. states, such protests
have been exceedingly rare in Canadian provinces and territories.
• An anti-lockdown protest has been organized in Lansing, MI, outside the Michigan State
Capitol for Thursday, May 14. Several other similar protests have occurred in Lansing. The
previous actions involved thousands of participants, including armed individuals. A protest in
Lansing two weeks ago involved hundreds of armed protesters entering the state capitol during
a legislative session. While previous protests remained relatively peaceful, social media posts
have been made in regard to the planned action Thursday, threatening violence against
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. A heavy police presence should be expected near the
state capitol on Thursday.
• The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has announced over 370 cases into fraud
related to the COVID-19 outbreak. Thus far at least 11 people have been arrested.
• The U.S. reported over 20 million private-sector jobs were lost in April and the unemployment
rate rose to 14.7 percent, the highest mark since the Great Depression. Canada reported two
million such jobs were lost in April and an unemployment rate of 13 percent.
SPREAD OF COVID-19: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
As of this writing, 446,975 cases of COVID-19 have been reported across the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) since the virus first appeared in the region in the United Arab Emirates on January 29.
Of these, 13,710 have been fatal. In general, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the
MENA continues to climb, and while the region’s overall trajectory appears to remain fairly stable, a
handful of countries have witnessed a recent trend of elevated incidence of new infections. Many of
the affected nations have recently eased coronavirus restrictions for the Muslim holy month of
Ramadan and to restart economic activities, raising the possibility that increased travel and social
interactions could lead to a resurgence of the virus. Although no definitive link between these trends
has been established, it stands to reason that local governments could take steps to prevent the
situation from spiraling. This could potentially include the extension of existing lockdown and curfew
measures, resulting in residual curbs on movement and personal freedoms. In addition to
complicating business operations and logistics, an incremental approach to restoring normalcy to
local economies and daily lives could aggravate tensions among those whose livelihoods have been
hurt by the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing the risk of social unrest and other security incidents that
have increased in frequency of late as coronavirus restrictions have eased.
The overall pace of new infections and deaths attributed to the coronavirus appears to remain
relatively stable in the region; however, a handful of MENA nations have witnessed increasing
COVID-19 incidence over the past week.
• Israel, the Palestinian territories, Tunisia, and Turkey remain in the midst of consistent albeit
varied, transmission.
• Iran has recorded a spike in new coronavirus cases since May 3, reportedly some 50 percent
more cases than its smallest daily case total since March 10 on May 2, according to Johns
Hopkins University. Authorities have attributed this trend to increased spread of COVID-19 in
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18the southwestern province of Khuzestan, where incidence of the virus has tripled, and
hospitalizations have increased by 60 percent in recent days.
• The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
and the United Arab Emirates—has surpassed 100,000 COVID-19 cases and is witnessing an
acceleration of its collective coronavirus epidemic since mid-April.
• Qatar has surpassed the UAE as the second-most affected GCC state, behind Saudi Arabia,
and has recently reported per capita COVID-19 incidence at a clip of more than double the
average of its regional counterparts and four times that in the United States.
• Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait all recorded their largest daily increases in
COVID-19 cases to date on May 10.
• Despite the country’s coronavirus curve appearing to have flattened as recently as last week,
Lebanon recorded its highest one-day totals since late March on May 7 and May 10.
• Pakistan’s COVID-19 epidemic continues to accelerate, with the country posting its second-
highest daily infection total to date on May 10.
• Afghanistan reported its biggest daily jump in new coronaviruses cases so far on May 10,
continuing a marked increase in the number of confirmed infections since late April.
• Yemen, which previously had relatively few coronavirus cases, has reported 64 new infections
since April 30 in a growing number of governorates, suggesting that COVID-19 could be
spreading rapidly there.
Nearly all MENA governments have begun lifting coronavirus restrictions on economic
activities, a decision likely motivated by the holy month of Ramadan and in light of increasing
financial hardship on citizens.
• Although some exceptions may exist, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Qatar appear to be
the only MENA countries yet to lift restrictions on commercial and retail establishments
generally considered to be non-essential.
• Nations that have allowed businesses to reopen generally require that health and social
distancing procedures are in place, such as restrictions on the number of people allowed
inside at a time and compulsory use of personal protective equipment.
• The Bahraini government announced that non-essential shops and businesses previously
closed due to COVID-19 could reopen from May 7, provided that employees and customers
wear face masks and practice social distancing.
• The Jordanian government lifted all remaining COVID-related restrictions on economic
activities beginning May 6, while the kingdom’s stock exchange reopened for the first time
since mid-March on May 10. The public sector is tentatively slated to return to work on May 26.
• Businesses in Pakistan reopened on May 9 after the government eased coronavirus lockdown
measures.
• Shopping malls, barbershops and hair salons were allowed to reopen across Turkey on May
11 after nearly a two-month closure.
• Iran announced that all mosques would be allowed to reopen for three consecutive days
beginning May 12 for Laylat al-Qadr, when observant Muslims commemorate the initial
revelation of the Quran. Friday prayers resumed in as many as 180 Iranian cities and towns on
May 8. Schools are slated to reopen on next week.
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19At the same time, authorities continue to enforce restrictions on personal movement across
most of the region, reflecting a phased approach to restoring normalcy amid the COVID-19
pandemic.
• Kuwait declared a 20-day “total curfew” from 4:00 PM local time on May 10 through at least
May 30. The suspension of public sector work, including government ministries, and private
agencies, has also been extended until May 31.
• Iranian authorities imposed a lockdown in the county of Abadan in the southwestern province
of Khuzestan on May 10 amid a sharp rise in COVID-19 infections there.
• On May 12, Algeria extended its coronavirus lockdown for at least 15 days from May 15.
• On May 10, Lebanon’s government lengthened a nightly curfew declared under a medical
state of emergency by two hours, with the curfew period now running from 7:00 PM until 5:00
AM local time.
• Authorities in Turkey will enforce a four-day lockdown from May 16 through May 19 after
imposing similar measures the past four weekends and on national holidays. A ban on entry
and exit by land, air, and sea to Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, among other urban centers,
remains in place.
An increase in COVID-19 infections is likely as containment measures are lifted. However, a
sustained rise in new cases would likely prompt MENA governments to extend and/or
reinstate curbs on economic activities and social life. Such a scenario would likely lead to new
negative impacts on local economies, while also increasing the potential for social unrest and
other security incidents caused by escalated socioeconomic tensions.
• The Saudi government on May 11 announced that it is increasing its value added tax (VAT)
rate from five percent to 15 percent, discontinuing a bonus cost-of-living allowance, and cutting
spending on construction projects in a bid to cut costs in light of revenue losses caused by low
oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Moderate anti-government protests resumed in Iraq on May 10 following a months-long lull
caused by the coronavirus and other regional developments. While it remains to be seen
whether the demonstrations are able to muster the same numbers and momentum as last
year, lingering socioeconomic grievances and the appointment of a new prime minister
perceived by activists as an extension of the same ruling class they have been trying to oust
are likely to lead to additional demonstrations in the near future.
• Likewise, members of the self-proclaimed “hirak” protest movement in Algiers staged fresh
demonstrations in the Tizi Ouzou region on May 10-11, signaling that the movement retains
some momentum and raising the possibility of renewed protests in the coming weeks, though
any widespread unrest appears unlikely due to strict coronavirus lockdown measures,
including a ban on public gatherings.
• At least seven people were killed when clashes broke out between residents and police in
Firozkoh, Ghor province, on May 9 during a protest over unfair distribution of food aid during
the coronavirus pandemic. A protest over the Afghan government’s anti-virus efforts was also
said to have occurred in Kabul on May 9.
• The US Embassy in Abu Dhabi, UAE, issued a message on May 7 citizens about a potential
scam using American embassy information, raising the possibility that the economic downturn
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20caused by the coronavirus pandemic could cause those whose livelihoods have been hurt to
turn to crime, especially as movement restrictions are lifted.
SPREAD OF COVID-19: LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
As of this writing, at least 387,985 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed throughout Latin America
and the Caribbean. This amounts to an increase of 41 percent over the previous week, marking a
slight decrease in the infection rate. Brazil continues to report the highest caseload in the region
(170,021), followed by Peru (62,822), Mexico (36,327), Chile (30,063), Ecuador (29,509), and
Colombia (11,613). The region-wide death toll has climbed to at least 21,799.
Many countries throughout the region have succeeded in slowing infection rates through government-
mandated restrictions on mobility and non-essential businesses. However, in light of mounting
economic pressure, a number of governments have begun to scale back lockdown orders in recent
weeks, and more have announced plans to do so in the near future. Although Chile had initially
loosened restrictions in late April, the country has since experienced a spike in cases, and
policymakers subsequently opted to ratchet up lockdown orders once again. It is likely that other
countries that have begun to reopen their economies will experience some level of rebound as well in
the coming weeks, despite the implementation of heightened safety protocols.
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to place strain on government resources and security forces,
criminal organizations and subversive militant groups in some areas continue to attempt to take
advantage of the ensuing power vacuum. In southwestern Colombia, criminal organizations have
scaled up attacks against community leaders in recent weeks, in an effort to expand and consolidate
control over territory. Mexican authorities report that drug trafficking cartels have similarly attempted
to deepen their control over communities that they have deemed to be strategic. In rural Paraguay,
after more than a year of relative inactivity, Paraguayan People’s Army (EPP) militants carried out two
arson attacks over the weekend.
Moreover, the worldwide pandemic has caused other shifts in the regional drug trade. Gasoline
shortages have stymied the production of cocaine in eastern Colombia, and shortages of chemical
precursors have impeded methamphetamine production in Mexico. The scarcity of such materials has
contributed to an increase in violent competition, as has the fact that many groups are now attempting
to “diversify” by branching out into other types of crimes. Restrictions on cross-border travel and
overland transportation have also led to a sharp uptick in maritime smuggling in recent weeks.
Brazil
• Brazil remains a patchwork of different restrictions, with COVID-19-related regulations on mobility
and businesses varying widely across states and municipalities.
• In districts that have enacted lockdown orders, such restrictions are being widely ignored. Local
news outlets report that less than 50 percent of the population is adhering to such orders in São
Paulo and São Luís.
• On Monday, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (and its subsidiary Jeep) announced the gradual
resumption of vehicle production in Brazil.
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21o Roughly 4,300 workers are slated to return to work at the company’s plant in Betim, Minas
Gerais (the largest automotive factory in the country).
o Some 1,500 workers will be returning to the plant in Goiana, Pernambuco.
o Approximately 600 employees have already returned to work at an engine plant in Campo
Largo, Paraná.
• Also on Monday, President Jair Bolsonaro declared gymnasiums and hair salons to be essential
services, allowing such businesses to resume operations amidst lockdown orders issued by state
and municipal governments.
• Brazil’s Public Prosecutor’s Office has opened investigations in at least 11 states, as well as the
Federal District, regarding alleged misuse of public funds that were intended for healthcare
equipment.
Peru
• Peru is continuing to gradually roll out the first phase of its four-staged economic recovery plan.
On Monday, more than 200 businesses were authorized to reopen for the first time since the
onset of the quarantine.
• On Sunday, President Martín Vizcarra issued a decree that requires banks/financial institutions,
supermarkets, and any other establishments that sell food to adhere to the following regulations:
o Employees and patrons must wear face masks and gloves.
o Social distancing (minimum of two meters) must be observed.
o Venues cannot exceed 50 percent of their normal maximum capacity.
• The economic slowdown has caused a spike in urban-to-rural migration, with thousands of
residents leaving Lima and other large cities to return to their hometowns.
• Over 3,800 police officers have reportedly contracted COVID-19 while on duty, with at least 46
succumbing to the virus. Authorities have estimated that a similar number of military personnel
and medical workers have likewise be infected.
• “Pandemic profiteering” continues. On Sunday, authorities seized over two tons of medical
supplies from a warehouse in Cercado de Lima. It is alleged that a criminal organization sought to
illegally resell the supplies at predatory prices.
Mexico
• On Sunday, Ford announced that 6,775 employees would return to work during the week of
May 18th, with operations resuming at the following plants:
o Hermosillo Stamping and Assembly, located in in Hermosillo, Sonora, which produces
the Lincoln MKS, the Ford Fusion, and the Police Interceptor sedan.
o Cuautitlán Stamping and Assembly, located in Cuautitlán Izcalli, Estado de México,
which produces the Ford Mustang Mach-E.
• On Tuesday, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced that his administration will
unveil its plan to reopen the economy on Wednesday or Thursday of this week.
o He stated that the process will be gradual, and that timetables and regulations will vary
across sectors.
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22o Municipalities’ current infection rates will be taken into consideration, with less-affected
communities being granted more leeway.
o The president indicated that the plan could potentially be delayed if social distancing
and other health protocols are widely flouted.
• Mexico’s Secretariat of Labor and Social Welfare estimates that 95 percent of non-essential
businesses are currently adhering to the government-mandated shutdowns. Non-compliance
has been the highest among auto repair shops, department stores, and vendors of other non-
essential products.
• Security forces are being tasked with additional duties and spread thinly amid the pandemic. A
recent report issued by Mexico’s Secretariat of Citizen Security (SSPC) and National
Intelligence Center (CNI) cautioned that criminal organizations will likely continue to attempt to
exploit the power vacuum, and to strengthen control over communities and areas they deem to
be strategic.
Chile
• A recent spike in COVID-19 cases has caused a growing number of policymakers to call for tighter
restrictions on mobility and non-essential businesses.
o Although such orders had been scaled back in late April, quarantines have recently been
expanded, and now encompass nearly one-third of Chile’s population.
o Most non-essential businesses are currently closed.
• On Tuesday, President Sebastián Piñera cautioned that Chile would likely experience the worst of
the outbreak in the coming weeks.
o The southern hemisphere is entering winter, when conditions are generally more conducive
to the spread of illnesses.
o As many low-income households in urban areas rely on wood stoves for heat, concerns
have been raised that the imminent uptick in air pollution will make individuals with
respiratory conditions even more vulnerable to COVID-19.
Colombia
• Colombia’s nationwide quarantine has been extended until May 25th, although select non-
essential sectors have been permitted to resume limited operations with heightened safety
protocols in place. The following sectors were authorized to reopen on Monday:
o Manufacturers of motor vehicles, trailers, furniture, electronics, and machinery.
o Maintenance/repair services for motor vehicles and electronic devices.
o Wholesale and retail trade of vehicles, furniture, household goods, and machinery.
o Retail trade of pet products, construction materials, hardware, glass, paint, fuels, cleaning
products, books, and stationery.
• In southwestern Colombia, targeted killings of community leaders have increased sharply since
the onset of the pandemic. Criminal gangs and drug traffickers appear to be attempting to take
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