General Election Opinion Poll - May 2018 - RED C Research
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General Election Opinion Poll May 2018
Methodology and Weighting
⁄ RED C interviewed a random sample of 1,015 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the
10th-16th May 2018.
⁄ A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process
of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.
⁄ Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half
conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the
population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both
a landline and a mobile.
⁄ Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all
adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted
at the last election, compares this to the actual results and weights the data between the
two.
⁄ Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point
scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 8 to 10 are included as
being those who will definitely go and vote.
⁄ In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both
ESOMAR and AIMRO.
2
First Preference Vote Intention – 20th May 2018
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)
Fine Gael
34% +2
Ind. Alliance
4% +2
Fianna Fáil
25% =
Sinn Féin
16% +2
Labour
6% =
Ind. Candidates
9% -4
Social
Solidarity-PBP Democrats Green Renua Other
Undecided Voters
3% +1 1% -1 2% = 0% -1 0% -1
13%
3
First Preference Vote Intention – May ‘18
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)
Mar
0.4 25th
2016 May
34% Election
33%
20th
0.35
32%
32%
Feb Apr
25th 29th
29%
0.3
26%
25%
25%
24%
24%
0.25
0.2 16%
16%
14%
14%
14%
13%
13%
0.15
11%
10%
9%
0.1
7%
6%
6%
6%
6%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
0.05
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
0%
First Preference Vote Intention – 2012-2018
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
40%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
35%
Fine Gael 34%
30%
Labour 25% 25%
Fianna Fáil
20%
Sinn Féin
Independent 16%
15%
Solidarity-PBP
Ind Alliance
10%
Green Party 9%
Social Democrats 6%
5%
Renua 4%
3%
Other 2%
0%
1%
Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split
out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua
separately 5
First Preference Vote Intention – 2009 to 2018
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
45%
Fianna Fáil
40%
35%
34%
30%
Fine Gael
Labour
25%
25%
Independent
20%
Sinn Féin
16%
Ind Alliance 15%
Solidarity-PBP
Green Party 10%
9%
Social Democrats 6%
Renua
5% 4%
3%
Other 2%
0% 1%
Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split
out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua
separately 6First Preference Vote Intention – Since GE 2016
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
35%
Confidence and Leo Varadkar 34%
supply agreement becomes leader of
reached FG and Taoiseach
30%
Fine Gael
25% 25%
Fianna Fáil
20%
Sinn Féin
15%
16%
Independent
Labour
Ind Alliance 10%
Solidarity-PBP
9%
Green Party 6%
5%
Social Democrats
4%
Renua 3%
2%
Other
0% 1%
GE Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 July '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18
2016
7The 8th Amendment - Repeal or Retain -
Likelihood to Vote in Referendum regarding 8th Amendment
(Base: All Adults aged 18+ - 1,015)
1-3 10
I am unlikely I will definitely
to vote 4-7 8 9 vote
May 2018 9% 6% 2%2% 81%
April 2018 7% 11% 6% 4% 72%
Higher level of planned voting behaviour in the
upcoming referendum.
9The Wisdom of Crowd Approach
The Wisdom of Crowds is a the idea that the collective estimation of a random crowd is
superior to even the smartest people within it, so long as a small number of conditions are
met.
The conditions have been defined as follows.
1. Diversity of opinion: each person has some information, even if it is an eccentric
interpretation of known facts.
2. Independence: opinions are not influenced by anyone else contributing to the crowd’s
response (which cannot be the case within an opinion polling setting).
3. De-centralisation: people are able to draw on local knowledge.
4. Aggregation: some method exists for turning private judgements into a collective decision;
for us, any opinion polling methodology is appropriate.
Now well into the Referendum campaign and based on significant success of this approach at
the Marriage Equality referendum where it predicted the result exactly, we have used this
approach again as a means of uncovering the possibility of “Shy” No voters.
The question asked people “as a bit of fun”, to try and estimate what they thought the result
of the referendum would be, based on what they had heard so far during the campaign and
the conversations they had had on the subject with friend and family.
The results show an interesting informed perception among voters that the result will be
closer than is currently being measured by stated claimed vote intention itself.
10Mar
Support for Repealing or Retaining the 8th Amendment in the Constitution Jan
25th
May
(Base: All Adults aged 18+ - 1,015) 28th 20th
Q. On 25th May this year a referendum will be held on whether or not to repeal the 8th Amendment in the constitution. How do you think that you will vote in the referendum? Will you Apr
vote to Repeal the 8th Amendment or vote to Retain the 8th Amendment in the constitution? 29th
Stated Repeal the 8th Re-Allocation of Wisdom of
Vote Intention Undecided Voters Crowds Prediction
Past experience that SHY undecided voters
Stated vote intention to Prediction of the result among
most likely to vote No, RED C reallocate D/K
interviewer on the phone our 1000 people sample
based on attitudinal analysis
YES YES YES
53% 56% 55% 58%
in favour of repealing 60% 56% in favour of repealing
62% 58% in favour of repealing 56%
the 8th Amendment the 8th Amendment the 8th Amendment
from the constitution from the constitution from the constitution
NO 26%
against repealing 20% 26% 27% NO NO
the 8th Amendment
against repealing 45% 42% 44%
38% 42%
against repealing
the 8th Amendment the 8th Amendment
Don’t know 18% 16% 19% 14%
Attitudinal analysis and
past referendum
Refused 2% 2% 2% 3% behaviours suggest that
the majority will vote No
11Support for Repealing or Retaining the 8th Amendment in the Constitution
(Base: All Adults aged 18+ - 1,015)
Q. On 25th May this year a referendum will be held on whether or not to repeal the 8th Amendment in the constitution. How do you think that you will vote in the referendum? Will you
vote to Repeal the 8th Amendment or vote to Retain the 8th Amendment in the constitution?
Re-Allocation of Undecided Voters
Past experience that SHY undecided voters most likely to vote No, RED C reallocate D/K based on attitudinal analysis
TOTAL MALE FEMALE 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F DUBLIN ROL MUNSTER CONN/ULS
YES 46% 42%
52% 55% 51% 49%
in favour of repealing 58% 58% 56%
the 8th Amendment 65% 63% 66%
from the constitution
71%
54% 58%
NO 44% 48% 45% 49% 51%
against repealing 42% 42% 37%
35% 34% 29%
the 8th Amendment
12Support for Oireachtas Committee recommendations to allow abortions up to the first 12
weeks of pregnancy. Mar Apr
25th 29th
(Base: All Adults aged 18+ - 1,015) Jan May
28th 20th
Q. Do you support or not support the Oireachtas committee recommendations to introduce legislation to allow abortion on demand during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy only or not?
Re-Allocation of
Oireachtas Undecided Voters
Committee Past experience that SHY undecided voters
most likely to vote No, RED C reallocate D/K
Recommendations based on attitudinal analysis
Support 51% 52% 47% 52% 53% 53% 49% 53%
Support
Do Not Support 27% 32%
33% 34%
47% 47% 51% 47%
Do Not
Don’t know 21% 13% 19% Support
13%
Attitudinal analysis and
Refused 1% 2% 2% 1% past referendum
behaviours suggest that
the majority will vote No
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