Ganesh Polytex Limited Dark Horse Dhamaka - Stock pick for July 2010
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Best Buying Price Consortium advocates a two-phase buying strategy: 1st Phase : Buy at the recommended price range Rs 47.5-52.5 [60% of investment] 2nd Phase : Add if the price falls down to Rs 40-44 [40% of investment] Recommended average buy price – Rs. 46.8 Expect at least 8-10 times returns in the next 3 years time frame!! 2
Table of Contents The Theme – Page# 4 Overview – Ganesh Polytex Limited – Page# 7 Ganesh Polytex – Waste Recycler – Page# 11 Ganesh Polytex – Products & Applications – Page# 16 Ganesh Polytex – Expansion Plans – Page# 23 Forward Revenue estimate & Financial Statements – Page# 27 The Management – Page# 32 Shareholding Pattern – Page# 34 Buying Strategy - Page# 36 Investment Rationale - Page# 38 Challenges/Risks Involved – Page# 40 3
From the research desk of Consortium Securities Non Bio-Degradable waste, especially the PET bottles pose serious threats to our environment. Considering the humongous growth in consumption, there successful recycling is extremely important. The use of Plastic products has been a major cause of concern since long. We have seen people, organizations clamoring about reducing the usage of Plastic products. These days as we move across streets, parks, etc, we see many PET bottles littered around giving not just a bad look but also posing serious threats to our environment. PET is one of the fastest growing segments in plastics providing a hygienic, durable and user friendly packaging solution for all kind of bottled drinks, beverages, liquor, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and other liquid products. As the consumption of PET is growing, so as the quantum of its waste is increasing at rapid pace. PET bottle waste being Non-Biodegradable, its recycling is inevitable else piling of it will be the biggest threat to the environment. 5
From the research desk of Consortium Securities We see a huge opportunity in the huge challenge that the nation and the world faces and we are happy to announce Ganesh Polytex Ltd as the Dark horse Dhamaka pick for the month of July 2010 , which directly plays a role in solving the problem of managing huge quantum of PET bottles waste. Ganesh Polytex Ltd is a waste management company & is one of The largest PET Waste Recycler in India. Company Business model is interesting as it transforms post-consumer pet bottle waste (which is otherwise hazardous for environment being non bio-degradable in nature) back again into environmental friendly, hygienic, and comfortable fibers which are more economical in comparison to virgin fibers. The company has charted out aggressive capex plans for the next three years. We expect the company’s impressive business module coupled with aggressive expansion plans to translate into healthy growth with increased profitability in the near future. Harveer S. Kalra Consortium Securities Pvt Ltd 6
The Company Ganesh Polytex Ltd (GPL). was incorporated as a Public Limited company in the year 1988. At Present Company is the largest PET waste recycling company with prominent presence in recycled Polyester Staple Fiber (RPSF) and largest to recycle PET bottle waste in the country, with forward integration to manufacture RPFY. The company is having two production units: o One at Raipur, Rania, Kanpur Dehat (U.P) which is on the main highway- Kanpur Jhansi Road. o Second unit, where the company has done major expansions, is located at Rudrapur (Uttarakhand). This unit is entitled for exemption from Central Excise and Income Tax for a period of 10 years. The company went into diversification in the year 1994 to produce Regenerated Polyester Staple Fiber in India. This was the first venture of its type in India to produce PSF from polyester waste & bottle flakes. In the year 2006, the second unit at Rudrapur (Uttarakhand) was set up with a production capacity of 6000 MT per annum which was subsequently increased by installing three more lines. The total aggregate capacity of the Kanpur & Rudrapur plant is 4800 MT per month or 57600 MT per annum. 8
Milestones Achieved Year Achievements 1987-88 Incorporation and commencement of business 1989 Creation of Dyeing and Doubling facilities for 360 TPA 1991 First public issue of 2.10 lakh shares and Capacity expansion Dyeing 1080 MT 1992-93 Creation of Texturising capacity – 216 spindles 1993-94 Rights issue of 34.50 lakh shares 1994-95 Expansion of Dyeing capacity to 1150 TPA. 1996-07 Expansion of Dyeing capacity to 1800 TPA and recycled PSF to 10800 TPA. Equity Capital expanded to Rs.9.37 crore 2007-08 Set up Rudrapur Unit for recycled PSF with an capacity of 21600 TPA and Expanded dyeing capacity to 2400 TPA. 2008-09 Expanded Capacity of Kanpur Unit for RPSF to 18000 TPA. Equity Capital expanded to Rs.9.87 Crores 9
Ganesh Polytex Limited (As on July 21st 2010) CMP = Rs 52.00 (Jul 21st 2010) – The stock is in PE = 6.15 Incepted GoingEdServ in 2001, forward, the revenue is World's is expected to first 4th generation the consolidation phase facing stiff resistance at education increase companydue multi-fold thatto uses thetechnology to efficiently major capacity expansion. Rs 52.5 At synchronize present themanpower companydemandcommands and supply very lowin number multiple on and skills account of right low from development visibility. However, to deployment. it should be able to 52 week’s high/low = Rs 56.5/8.05 –The stock EdServ's business is web enabled command a very high multiple once and is run through a the investors recently made a new 52 week high. As it is in the secured partner-driven center network in Integrated strong bullish phase it can continue to make new understand the business model. Learning Model through its EdCenter brand. highs. Peak share price = Rs 56.5 (19th July ‘2010) – When the stock reaches its life time high it goes EdServ’s is India’s Shareholdings only : No Ofcompany to Share shares [% have seamlessly Holding ] integrated education and placement Total Foreign: 0.3lakhs [0.3%] end-to-end in into a strong bullish phase in the absence of any partner based web network. resistance. At CMP Ganesh Polytex is very close Total Institutions: 0.1 lakh [0.1%] to its life time peak of 56.5. Total Non Promoter Corporate Holding 25.1lacs EdServ focuses on the bottom of the pyramid, the Real [20.3%] Trading volume = Min 1.37 lacs shares (approx) India, the hugely Total recession-proof Promoters market 0.586 crore having the [47.6%] per day –These are early days for a company continuous Total need Publicof&affordable education others 39.2lacs and a career [31.8%] which is soon going to create a huge impact in growth pathOutstanding Total and guidance. The company Shares also[100 1.23crore rolled %]out the Waste Recycling sector. The stock is liquid EdCampus, Ed-Cademy, and EdCenters with EdClass This shall help investors to get in and out of stock during the year that offer learning, jobs, metrics, and Debt/Equity = 2 [Mar’10] easily. live lectures, online in-campus. ROCE = 14.2% [Mar’10] EPS = Rs 8.45 – The company is expected to end ROE = 17.6% [Mar’10] the FY 11 with a net profit of Rs 13 crore on the EdServ hasRatio Current launched = 1.0in[Mar’10] the year 2009, World's first 4th equity base of Rs 13 crore, culminating into an Generation Deliverededucation Volume per model daythat has a definite = Approx 58% job EPS of Rs 10 fitment for every aspirant who wishes to seek a career BSE Code 514167 as a fresher. 10
Ganesh Polytex – Waste Recycler 11
PET Waste Recycling company Ganesh Polytex Ltd is the largest PET waste recycling company with prominent presence in recycled Polyester Staple Fiber (RPSF) and largest to recycle PET bottle waste in the country, with forward integration to manufacture RPFY. Ganesh Polytex is market leader in this segment of manufacturing of Recycled polyester staple fiber (RPSF) & has been in the field of Recycled PSF for over 15 years. Besides procuring the Waste from vendors, the company has set up its own procurement centers in different cities to insulate itself from raw material shortage as well as price fluctuations. Finished product finds application for spinning of yarn, stuffing in toys and other life style products like pillows, quilts, mattresses and furniture, non-woven carpets and fabrics, medical & packaging textile, geo textile, fur fabrics, construction and paper industry and other technical textile. 12
Raw Material The major raw material required for Recycled PSF is post- consumer PET bottle waste. PET is one of the fastest growing segments in plastics providing a hygienic, durable and user friendly packaging solution for all kind of bottled drinks, beverages, pharmaceuticals, liquor, chemicals, and other liquid products. As the consumption of PET is growing, so as the quantum of its waste is increasing. PET bottle waste is non bio-degradable in nature (takes thousands of years in decomposing) and hence, poses a serious threat to soil, water sources and forests and thus harmful for human being and other living creatures. Therefore, its recycling is inevitable else piling of it will be the biggest threat to the environment. 13
Increase in consumption of PET bottles Region PET Resin Capacity Demand Global 17.5 million tonnes 14.0 million tonnes India 0.80 million tonnes 0.40 million tones and the rest is being exported due to price advantage With life style changes and higher disposable income, demand of PET bottles is set to grow at much faster pace as the per capita PET consumption in India is 0.22 kg. as compared to the world average of 2.1 kg. in 2008. As per industry estimates, about 65% of PET bottles consumption is available for recycling. That means, indigenous availability of PET bottle waste would be 3.0 lakh tone during 2010, which is much more than the overall requirement of entire domestic recycling capacity (aggregate installed capacity of about 1.75 lakh ton per annum during 2010) in the country. The consumption of PET bottles is expected to grow to 0.60 million tonne by 2012, availability of waste will also increase correspondingly. The present installed capacity of Recycled PSF in India is about 1.63 lakh tonne, Ganesh Polytex Ltd has a capacity of 57600 MT per annum & is at the first position in the sector. 14
Collection of Raw Material Availability of Raw material is almost free of cost, but the critical issue is collection of waste and transportation / processing cost. Ganesh Polytex Ltd. is in this line of business since last 15 years and has a well-streamlined network of its collection centers (operating on franchisee module) of PET waste spread all over the Country at strategic locations. It has also developed a network of traders over the periods who exclusively supply the material to the Company. Further there is huge possibility of imports of PET bottle waste from foreign countries and this avenue is still to be tapped by the Company as imported bottles are little bit costly due to transportation factor. In case of need, the company may plan to set up a raw material processing /washing unit in near future at Europe or USA, where abundant quantity of raw material is available. Company also uses other types of polyester waste viz. Waste undrawn fiber, POY/ PFY waste, polyester film waste etc., which is also available in small quantities. 15
Ganesh Polytex – Products and Applications 16
Products & Applications Ganesh Polytex Products Category Recycled Polyester Staple Fibre (RPSF) Dyed Texturised / Twisted Filament Yarn Raw Material Used Post Consumer PET bottle Waste and POY/FDY and Grey Texturised Yarn other kind of industrial Waste of Polyester Application/ End use Textile Sector : Spun Yarn; Hosiery Yarn etc. Fabrics, Saree, Dress Material, Industrial Sector – Filter Fabrics; Geo textile; Upholstery and furnishing fabrics, Non-woven carpets and Fabrics; Medical and Sewing Threads, Cords etc. packaging textile etc. 17
Recycled Polyester Staple Fibre (RPSF) Ganesh Polytex (GPL) product includes low-end basic segment to mid and high-end premium segment. Recycled PSF replaces 100% virgin PSF in textile sector due to its most distinctive advantage of cost-effectiveness and it replaces Foam, Cotton, P.P. fiber etc. in other industrial sectors due to its durability, comforts and hygienic characteristics besides cost-effectiveness. Polyester has now become common man’s fabrics in terms of prices, durability and comforts in comparison to cotton and other fibres. With growth in the economy and growing middle class, the per capita consumption of polyester fabric is also set to increase both for clothing and non-clothing applications. In fact, with growing per capita income consumption of non-clothing fabric will grow at much faster rate than clothing fabric. As Recycled Polyester Fibre is suitable both for clothing and non-clothing applications, its demand is improving both in textile and industrial sector. This bodes well for GPL as it has strong presence in both the sectors 18
Market demand & Industry Scenario Major User Industry Of Recycled PSF Non-woven/technical Yarn spinning Stuffing textile 19
Non-woven/Technical Textile Textile for non-clothing applications is classified in non-woven and technical textiles, which are growing roughly at twice rate of textiles for clothing applications and now account for major chunk in total textile production. The large Indian population of over one billion with nearly 48% in the age group of 18-35 and 250 million strong middle class which has high purchasing power and living standards presents a potential huge market for non-woven products & with the Indian economy poised for a rapid growth of more than 8% during the next five years, non-woven production and consumption is expected to see rapid growth. Areas of non-woven applications like infrastructure, automotive textiles, carpets, interlinings and wading, furnishings and beddings, agricultural textiles, medical textiles, sports textiles etc are already seeing a lot of activity and are bound to grow at rapid rate in order to catch up with the developed world. The market size of technical/non-woven textile in India grew from Rs.31,000 crore during 2003-04 to Rs.44,000 Crore during 2007-08. Further, as per an internal document prepared by the textile ministry, it is estimated that the technical textile market would grow to Rs.78,060 Cr. by 2014–15 with an annual growth rate of 14%. 20
Yarn Spinning Recycled PSF is used in yarn spinning in replacement of virgin grade PSF, which is about 15% costlier that recycled PSF. Recycled PSF can be used 100% in coarse counts of yarn (up to 30 count – which account for almost 40% of the total yarn consumption in India), and for fine counts (above 30, which are mostly used in apparels & wearing cloths), it is blended with virgin grade PSF. Due to cost & sale price equation as well as growing demand for non-apparels fabric, use of virgin grade PSF is being replaced by Recycled PSF. This has opened up a large window for Recycled PSF in spinning sector because present domestic market size of coarse denier spun yarn is about 4.00 lakh tonne per annum. 21
Stuffing With improvement in life style and urbanization coupled with increasing disposable income, use of home furnishing products like quilts, comforters, mattresses, pillows, furniture etc. is increasing and growth in their market size is in double digit. Traditionally these products were stuffed with cotton, foam, coir etc. with increasing prices and decreasing availability, cotton is almost out for such uses. Recycled PSF is now being preferred over other traditional products like foam and coir because of its inherent qualities like hygiene, wash-ability, light-weight and user friendly characteristics. Likewise there is phenomenal growth in market of soft toys, where there is no substitute of Recycled PSF in stuffing. Estimated market size of all these products in India is over Rs.15,000 crore. 22
Ganesh Polytex – Expansion plans 23
Ganesh – Leading all the way Rank Company In this Sector (RPSF) Place Present Capacity MTPA 1. Ganesh Polytex Ltd Kanpur & 57600 Rudrapur 2. Reliance Industries Ltd Hazira 42000 3. Shiva Tex Fab (P) Ltd Ludhiana 18000 4. Rishiraj Filaments Ltd - 12000 5. Allainz Fibres Gujrat 6000 6. Arora Fibres Ltd Silvassa 6000 7. Himalaya Fibres Baddi (H.P) 6000 8. K.K.Fibres Baddi (H.P) 6000 9. Capital Fibres (P) Ltd - 600 10. Nirmal Fibres Gajraula (U.P) 3600 TOTAL 1,63,200 MTPA 24
Economies of Scale Ganesh Polytex Ltd. has the largest capacity in the industry, which has enabled the company to optimize per unit cost of production and ward off the competition due to economics of scale. Since the product is replacement of downstream virgin PET product market, it has ever increasing demand from both - the replacement market and growing uses from consumer market. PET recycling has drawn the attention of many big business houses including Reliance Industry. Company would not be affected by the presence of large players like Reliance because of enough wide market and multiple uses. Rather their presence is beneficial for the development of down stream consumption of recycled PET and products . Ganesh Polytex Ltd is having the largest product range in the industry on the one hand and source of raw material (PET bottle waste) is open market which can’t be influenced. 25
Expansion Plans GANESH POLYTEX LTD is encouraged to expand its production to match with the demand and diversify into forward integration for value added products. Company has a ambitious growth plans which includes enhancing the recycling capacity to over 100,000 TPA in stages over the next 2 years. Aggressive Capex Plans Over The Next Three Years. Ganesh Polytex has charted out expansion plan with a capital outlay of Rs.850millions over the next three years. The company shall invest Rs.250millions for ramping up of Recycled PSF capacities by 14,400 MT/pa. The project shall be operational in FY11. The company has expanded additional capacity of Recycled Polyester Staple Fiber (RPSF) by 18,000 TPA at Rudapur with an estimated cost of Rs.250mn. The company has also firmed up plans to set up a facility for manufacturing Recycled Partially Oriented Yarn (POY) as a part of forward integration for value added product. The plant will have a capacity of 18000MT/pa and shall entail an investment of Rs.350 millions. The new facility shall be operational in FY12. 26
Forward Revenue Estimates & Financial Statements 27
Revenue Forecast FINANCIAL MATRIX 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Actual Projections Net Sales (Cr) 51.94 62.67 105.42 135.37 190 234 400 Other Income (Cr) 0.2 0.33 0.38 0.08 0 0 0 EBDITA (Cr) 5.77 7.01 12.35 17.1 26 35 75 EBDITA Margin (%) 11.1 11.18 11.71 12.63 14 15 17 CAGR Growth (%) 28.25% 35% Depreciation (Cr) 1.4 1.81 3.6 5.66 7 10 17 PAT (Cr) 1.46 1.89 3.75 4.35 9 13 30 PAT margin(%) 2.81 3.01 3.55 3.21 4.50 5.50 6.25 Cash Generation (Cr) 2.86 3.7 7.35 10.01 16 23 47 Equity Share Capital (Cr) 9.37 9.37 9.86 9.86 12.32 13.38 19 Net worth (Cr) 14.2 15.99 20.2 23.98 31 48 108 Total Borrowing (Cr) 14.19 27.91 46.6 61.35 82 68 82 Gross Block (Cr) 32.45 47.29 66.97 85.83 111 116 175 Debt Equity Ratio 0.36 0.78 1.11 1.29 1.37 0.66 0.51 EPS (Rs) 1.57 2.03 3.62 4.35 8.01 8.78 15 Book Value (Rs) 15.16 17.07 20.5 24.33 31.7 35.86 54 RONW(%) 9.92 11.5 16.33 16.26 25.29 24.46 27.36 28
Income Statement (Last 5 Years) The Company’s sales and net profits have grown at healthy compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% and 30% respectively in the past four years. The Revenue and Profitability grew exponentially from Rs 52 crore to Rs 199 crore and Rs 1.47 crore to Rs 9 crore respectively. Its EBIDTA improved to Rs. 24.30 crore in FY09-10 from Rs. 4.77 crore in FY06 on the back of improved product mix. Growth plans are likely to propel CAGR of 35-40% in its top and bottom lines during next five years. 29
Quarterly Results The company has been recording a sequential growth in revenue and net profit for the last 4 quarters. The company has been able to scale up it’s NPM by almost 90% from 3% to 5.70%. In the last 4 quarters itself, the company has recorded a growth of 142% in it’s net profit from Rs 1.28 crore to Rs 3.11 crore. GPL has recently upgraded it’s facility by 18,000 TPA. The revenue from the new facility shall start coming in from Q1 of FY 11. 30
Balance Sheet For the last 5 years the Gross Block of the company has witnessed continuous expansion from Rs 28 crore to Rs 85 crore. The company has been expanding its capacity on a consistent basis enabling the company report higher sales and profitability. As per the projected estimates, the company intends to bring down its Debt/Equity ratio to almost 0.5 in the next two years, while it will still continue with capacity expansion through internal accruals and limited equity dilution. 31
Management 32
Men at the Helm Mr. Shyam S. Sharma – Chairman & MD – A textile engineer. Served the Birla group for 25 years in various senior positions and promoted the said company in the year 1987. He is well versed with the fiber and textile technology with an experience of more than 45 years. Mr. V. D. Khandelwal – Executive Vice President – A Post Graduate in Commerce and having experience of more than 36 years in trading of different types of textile yarns. He is one of the Promoter Director and looks after the affairs of the company since inception. Mr. Sharad Sharma – Joint Managing Director – A Commerce graduate with more than 17 years in marketing of yarns and fiber. He is engaged with the company since 1992. Mr. Rajesh Sharma – Executive Director – A Commerce Graduate with rich experience spanning over 20 years in plant administration. Looks after the administration of the company’s Rudrapur unit. 33
Shareholding Pattern 34
Shareholding – Promoters & Non Promoters At the end of Mar’ 10 the Promoter holding stands at 47.55%, which is reasonable and the increase in stake further reflects the confidence of the management in the prospects of the company. The Promoter’s have been increasing their stake consistently for the last 5 quarters. The total Paid-up Equity Share Capital of the Company has been enhanced from Rs. 9,85,50,000/- to Rs. 12,32,00,000/-because of allotment of 24.65 Lakhs Equity Shares to the Promoters and Others, consequent upon the exercise of conversion option of warrants 35
Buying Strategy 36
Best Price to Buy In the last 11 months, the stock has already appreciated by around 400%, while for last 4 months it’s been consolidating. As evident from the chart the stock’s been witnessing higher lows, however it’s been facing a strong resistance at around Rs 52.5. We expect the stock to consolidate for some more time and would therefore suggest a buying price range of Rs 47.5 to Rs 52.5 37
Investment Rationale 38
Investment Rationale The company is the leader in its area of operations and recently surpassed the annual production capacity of Reliance Industries Ltd. The investors lack the understanding of the Business Model of the company. Once the investors realize the true potential and the main area of operation i.e. Waste Recycling, the stock will command very high multiples. The company is contemplating a change in the name of the company to reflect the true operations. A change in name will lead to better visibility and a change in perception, which will result in Re-rating. The company has chalked out an aggressive expansion for the next two years, which will not only increase the profitability and sales but also result in margin expansion. Based on the Projected income and sales, the company is available at low valuations thereby ensuring safety of margin. 39
Challenges / Risks involved 40
Challenges / Risks involved Following are some of the key risks that could derail our estimates and expectations – A change in the manufacturing technology of PET bottles may affect the company’s ability to recycle the waste Availability of Raw material is almost free of cost, but the critical issue is collection of waste and transportation / processing cost. The increasing number of players are now making a shift from conventional yarn manufacturing techniques to Re-cycling PET bottles for manufacturing yarn. This may hurt company’s waste collection dominance and it’s ability to procure raw material at cheaper rates. 41
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