Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood
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Future Scenarios
for EuroMed
Agrifood
With the participation of
The PRIMA programme is an Art. 185
initiative supported and funded
under Horizon 2020,
the European Union’s Framework
Programme for Research and Innovation
Future Scenarios
for EuroMed
Agrifood
With the participation of
The PRIMA programme is an Art. 185
initiative supported and funded
under Horizon 2020,
the European Union’s Framework
Programme for Research and InnovationIndex
Main Findings p. 4
Detailed Results p. 7
Comments by Experts and Partnering Institutions p. 22
Views from PRIMA Countries p. 30
This report is edited by the Italian Secretariat of PRIMA, with the contribution of the PRIMA
Foundation, the Union for the Mediterranean, the European Commission, the Food Agriculture
Organisation, FACCE JPI, EIT Food, Ain Shams University, the World Farmers Organisation,
Future Food Institute, Parliamentary Assembly of the Mediterranean, SDSN Mediterranean.
The views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the above-mentioned Institutions.
The report is based on the results of the Euro-Mediterranean agrifood survey launched in April
in the frame of PRIMA (Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area)
and on the debate of the webinar promoted by PRIMA and the Union for the Mediterranean in July.
Data of the report have been elaborated by Francesca Gagliardi.
The graphic design made by Guido Bellini.
We also thank Monica Cavicchioli, Barbara Di Paola, Fiorino Iantorno, Giovanni Stanghellini
and Cristiana Tozzi for their contribution.
The PRIMA programme is an Art. 185
initiative supported and funded under Horizon 2020,
the European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and InnovationForeword
H umanity is facing what could be described
as the biggest global crisis of the generation.
The United Nations published a report on March
do not know borders and collective responses
are the only possible solutions. In this sense,
the PRIMA Partnership and the equal-footing
2020 identifying the main socio economic principle that is underpinning it, proves to be the
impacts provoked worldwide by the COVID-19 right path, as reiterated in the EU-Africa Strategy.
with reference to the 17 Sustainable Development To better tailor its role in the Mediterranean area,
Goals (SDGs) of the Agenda 2030. In addition to PRIMA launched a survey meant to understand
the devastating effects on public health (SDG 3), the current trends, the emerging needs and
the main problems emerged concern inter alia challenges, the possible solutions and the best
the loss of income leading vulnerable segments practices, within the agrifood sector after the
of society to fall below poverty line (SDG 1), the pandemic outbreak.
risk of collapse of essential services including
food production and distribution (SDG 2) and The transition towards sustainability is
clean water supply (SDG 6). It is clear from these unavoidable and essential to preserve our planet
observations that it is necessary to promote and innovation is key to strengthening adequate
transitions to a new developmental model profitability for farmers, smallholders and SMEs.
inspired by the SDGs. Many of these challenges They, on one side, will experience major financial
have even greater relevance in the Mediterranean problems, on the other, shall be supported as
region, which is a hot spot for Climate Change, as actors able to generate a new model, which
authoritatively reported in the UFM. promotes prosperity for all, so valorizing the role
of local territories and communities as well as the
Research and innovation also have a great role to protection of land and soil.
play in order to foster positive transformations
in view of more sustainable and equitable The issue of leaving no one behind is also
Mediterranean region. With this in mind, PRIMA essential, considering that “Healthy diets are
is willing to contribute for the years to come to unaffordable to many people, especially the
the recovery of the region, promoting concrete poor, in every region of the world.” According to
solutions for a sustainable euro-med water, FAO recent report on Food Security, innovation
farming and agrifood sectors. This is even might play a role also in this regard, by ensuring
more compelling if framed in light of the Next more affordable diets, which “..are estimated
Generation EU, which backed and reinforced to be, on average, five times more expensive
the European Green Deal and the Farm to Fork than diets that meet only dietary energy needs”.
Strategy and in the 25th Anniversary of the Innovation is also decisive in preserving
Barcelona Declaration that opened an era of biodiversity, boosting resilience and preventing
dialogue and cooperation for the Mediterranean the spread of future outbreaks, while creating
region. new economic opportunities in rural areas.
As the European Union launches its “..€ 1 billion
The agrifood ecosystem was among the most European Green Deal call” as the biggest call
affected sectors due to the international borders under Horizon 2020 PRIMA with innovation
closure, national lockdowns and the enforced at its heart – as commented by Commissioner
restrictions on mobility and flow. We were Gabriel - PRIMA is ready to play its role in
clearly shown also that health is a single, all- fostering sustainable transitions and systemic
encompassing concept. As expressed in the transformations to the benefit of citizens and
Farm to Fork Strategy “a shift to a sustainable Mediterranean societies.
food system can bring environmental, health
and social benefits, offer economic gains and
ensure that the recovery from the crisis puts us
onto a sustainable path”. The pandemic has also Angelo Riccaboni – Mohamed El-Shinawi
reminded us, once again, that certain challenges Chair and Co-Chair PRIMA Foundation
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 3Main Findings
T he following pages summarize the answers
and opinions received as well as the comments
and views expressed by experts and some PRIMA
The respondents are 181 experts in agrifood and
sustainability of the Mediterranean basin. Most of
them are academic or work in public institutions.
Countries Representatives. The self-administered The representatives of the PRIMA Board of
survey was meant to understand the situation of Trustees as well as the members of the Scientific
the Euro-Mediterranean agrifood system in light Advisory Committee have been involved.
of the COVID pandemic, the emerging trends, the
new challenges as well as the transformations to Here below the results are reported, based on the
be positively induced. “consensus” or “divergence” that the interviewees
have shown on each statement. Detailed per/
All respondents have been asked to state their question data are presented in the Annex (p. 7)
opinion on several statements concerning the for the entire sample and disaggregated at area
future of Euro-Med scenario for agrifood. The level, North and South Mediterranean countries.
statements have been divided into three pillars: In addition, each statement is also interpreted
agrifood systems and society, businesses, using the Threat/Opportunity perspective,
consumers. The answers have been provided on highlighting some concrete questions that can
the base of the following Likert scale: better help addressing the issue.
1. I strongly disagree
2. I don’t agree
3. Neither agree nor disagree
4. I agree
5. I fully agree
Summary of agrifood systems and society pillar
Large consensus versus ‘agree’ position Not convergence and doubtfull positioning
y Limitations to mobility of temporary agricultural y Major disruptions in international food supply
work force will negatively impact production chains will occur
y International trade will slow down y Agrifood supply chains will become shorter
y International policies on agri-food need to
be defined to allow a broader governance
and more effective controls on sustainable
production of food
y Food security and regional/national
self-sufficiency will become more important
y Innovative approaches will be needed to secure
food supplies to vulnerable groups
y Price volatility of agricultural commodities
will grow
Summary of businesses pillar
Large consensus versus ‘agree’ position Not convergence and doubtfull positioning
y The introduction of technological innovations y Major financial problems will affect big agrifood
(Agriculture 4.0, artificial intelligence, businesses
digitalization, blockchains, innovative research- y Attention to the scenario post COVID will
based products …) will become crucial for induce businesses to give less attention
agrifood businesses to survive to Agenda 2030
y The introduction of organisational innovations
(new business models, aggregations,
partnerships, …) will become crucial for
agrifood businesses to survive
y E-commerce will streamline value chains and
digital sales will grow
y Major financial problems will affect smallholders
y Major financial problems will affect SMEs in the
agrifood sector
y Risk management will become more relevant
4 Future Scenarios for EuroMed AgrifoodSummary of consumers pillar
Large consensus versus ‘agree’ position Not convergence and doubtfull positioning
y Due to the economic crisis, consumers will give y Consumers will give more attention to
attention mainly to the price of food sustainably produced food
y Consumers will give more attention to rigorous y Consumers will give more attention to
traceability of inputs, production processes nutritious and healthy food
and logistics (not strong consensus) y Consumers will give more attention to canned
y E-commerce and digital sales will grow and long-life food
y The Mediterranean diet will be increasingly
adopted
y Major disruption of street markets will occur
In addition to the empirical results, experts research methods while others went more specific
have also provided a professional opinion about and highlighted the need to further investigate
what they believe are possible future scenarios, interdependencies across geographical areas
underscoring and commenting the issue, aspect and the different types of value chain. On the
or trend considered mostly relevant in the other hand, other experts mentioned that under
agrifood Euromed sector. the current circumstances and because the
Some opinions supported the general idea that emergency is still on, it is difficult to predict what
new priorities will emerge and that some post specific trends will prevail.
pandemic changes will take place especially on However, it was realised also that meeting
the short-term, but they still believe that the pre- the demand for constant food supply under
COVID-19 priorities will become important again. pandemic conditions was a challenge, and
However, some opinions went in the opposite as a result, for the post-COVID scenario it is
direction that the situation with Covid-19 had important to promote innovative solutions that
been exaggerated beyond facts and that many can improve the global and local efficiency of
people jumped into conclusions without any the entire Agrifood production chain, while
objective data regarding the Agrifood sector, maintaining high nutritional values and affordable
which has shown remarkable resilience over retail prices. Innovation therefore plays a crucial
the years and therefore it would not be greatly role in allowing food productions to satisfy new
affected by the covid-19 pandemic. needs with the widest possible benefits: those
In regards to consumers, experts think that operating in this sector must introduce forms
this crisis is going to worsen the gap between of technological, organizational and social
the rich and poor; and that food choices will be innovation into their production, processing and
linked to that. Therefore, price will be the main distribution activities. In the absence of new
influencer of poor consumers food choices, while ways to produce and redefine their own business
the richest will consider other dimensions such as models, the companies operating in the sector
sustainability, healthy foods and their traceability. could hardly be able to exploit the full potential
Economic uncertainty of families, conditioned of the Mediterranean Diet, so as to bring about
to wages discontinuities induced by crises, and the desired benefits for themselves and their
the exacerbated distance between the richest communities. Technological and organizational
and poorest compromise access to healthy innovation is therefore a decisive factor if we
food, often limiting options to low cost, over- seek to have agri-food systems that meet the
processed and indefinitely storable foodstuff. nutritional needs of all citizens, all the while
Local food suppliers, including small farmers and respecting the environment and animals and
retailers, can contribute to match the demand of safeguarding public health.
fresh food and fill the void left by large retailers For the majority of experts, agrifood value chains
thus representing a strategic asset to face crises. will also need restructuring post COVID-19, but
Food safety originates from the work of producers this may only be driven by wise policies in order
and control authorities, but consumers, with to achieve better sustainability. These policies
their food habits, play the most important role should focus more on protecting smallholders
in preventing effects of pandemics. The rate of and supporting short and regional supply chains,
obesity is impressively around 20% of the Euro- as well as highlighting the advantages of fast on-
mediterranean population and obese people shelf delivery with less mediators, which will not
belong the category of most vulnerable to virus only enhance food security characteristics, but
attack. Empowering consumers to make better- will also increase smallholders’ earnings.
informed decisions that are healthier for them More in general, a wider governance is needed
and for the planet is an urgent measure. to share policies and strategies for the agrifood
Several opinions supported the idea that we sector that need to be discussed and agreed by
need to introduce more innovatively designed experts, food operators and policy makers.
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 5In conclusion, lessons learnt from the COVID Despite the disruption caused by the pandemic
pandemic suggests that a prosperous reboot to economies, experts still believe that the major
will require testing and deploying innovative challenges Agrifood production was facing and
solutions for preventing or eventually managing will face in the future are current and ongoing,
new crises. The post-COVID innovation action and therefore, emphasis should be given to create
must cover a wide range of issues, from education more resilient Agrifood systems in conjunction
addressed to consumers to promote sustainable with more sustainable and anthropocentric
food patterns, to solutions addressed to value social and economic systems, and that markets
chain actors, including technologies, nature will pick up faster than predicted.
based solutions and organisational frameworks.
More in general, the desirable direction goes
towards a transformative resilience and the
agrifood sector in particular will have a crucial
role in this transition process.
Union for Mediterranean
The region’s existing energy or food are used
elements of fragility – most in an unmaintainable way.
notably the high levels of Demands for water, food
socio-economic inequality and energy are increasing
I n the span of a few
months, the pandemic
of COVID-19 has spread to
and the pressing climate
change emergency – are
indeed set to worsen as
due to population growth
and economic development.
It is estimated that by year
every corner of the world, a result of the pandemic. 2050, 50% more water,
and has pushed us into The rise of temperatures 60% more food and 80%
an unprecedented crisis, is notably progressing more energy would be
the severity of which has 20% faster than the global required globally; by 2030,
not been seen in almost average across the region. the world is projected to
a century. The socio- Therefore, the health and face a 40% global water
economic repercussions of wealth threat multiplier deficit under the business-
this crisis will be extremely represented by climate as-usual climate scenario.
far-reaching, and will likely change is especially intense In the absence of a
unfold for years to come. over the Mediterranean globally coordinated
Even levelled out across the Basin. response and with the
world, the OECD estimates Water, food, energy and risk of environmental
that for each month of ecosystems are intertwined considerations slipping
confinement, there will and essential for human at the bottom of the
be a loss of nearly 2% in well-being, poverty agenda in these times
annual GDP growth, and the reduction and sustainable of economic crisis, we
economic impact alone is development, including by can expect more shocks
now expected to be worse addressing climate change in the form of extreme
than the 2008 recession. impacts. We are therefore weather events or further
The pandemic has working through a nexus infectious outbreaks.
reconfirmed that the of natural, institutional, While addressing the
systems on which we economic and social unprecedented situation
depend, are not only frameworks. Indeed, created by the Covid-19
increasingly interdependent, agriculture accounts for 70 pandemic, the UfM will
but also growingly % of total global freshwater therefore continue to
vulnerable. This reality, withdrawals, while about 30 drive the very necessary
valid at a global scale, is % of total global energy is conversations aimed at
nonetheless a more urgent used by the food sector. preparing the region to
one for the Mediterranean Healthy ecosystems support face, tackle and even
region, where conditions of the sustainability of the reverse the inevitable
fragility and exposure are above and are negatively impacts of climate and
further concentrated. affected if water, environmental change.
6 Future Scenarios for EuroMed AgrifoodDetailed Results
Agrifood systems and society
1. Limitations to mobility of temporary agricultural work force will negatively impact
production
There is a strong agreement on this statement from all respondents; 79% agree or fully agree on it and
there is no different view between respondents of South or North Med.
60 South
20,44 I full agree North
50
58,56 I agree 40
30
14,92 Neither agree nor disagree
20
5,52 I disagree 10
0
0,55 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
SOCIETY Yes - No
Limitations to mobility Yes Threat Statistics show trends of abandon of rural settlements
of temporary agricultural in the EuroMed area with a constant increase of urban
work force will negatively population and decrease of employees in the agrifood
impact production sector. The composition and dynamics of labour force
in agriculture is a critical issue as well as labour rights
and fair salaries of growers being determinant actors
of the value chain. The emerging THREAT enhances
the role of temporary agricultural workers as crucial
agents for food security.
CHALLENGES: How to limit uncertainty?
How to guarantee labour rights? How to support
agribusinesses?
2. Major disruptions in international food supply chains will occur
Responses to this statement are more eterogeneous and less convergent: 53% of respondents agree or
fully agree with it, but 26% have no opinion on it and 21% disagree with it. Responses are also different
between respondents from North or South Med. While South respondents mostly agree, North
respondents are very scattered between agree/don’t agree/neutral.
60 South
11,05 I full agree 50 North
42,54 I agree 40
30
25,97 Neither agree nor disagree
20
19,89 I disagree 10
0
0,55 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
SOCIETY Yes - No
Major disruptions in Yes Threat Instability of international supply chain concerning
international food supply food trade represents a THREAT that confirms the
chains will occur importance of local food supply, among the possible
mitigation measures. Countries with high rates of food
income are more vulnerable.
CHALLENGES: What policies are need to guarantee
international food supply as a factor of food security?
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 73. International trade will slow down
The statement has got a large consensus: 69% of respondents agree or fully agree with it. South Med
respondents converge more on agreeing the statement. 22% of respondents have no opinion.
80 South
11,05 I full agree 70 North
60
42,54 I agree 50
40
25,97 Neither agree nor disagree 30
20
19,89 I disagree 10
0
0,55 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
SOCIETY Yes - No
International trade will Yes Threat The slow down of international trade is perceived as a
slow down THREAT, especially concerning economy of agrifood
value chain actors, in some cases almost fully oriented
to the global market.
CHALLENGES: What policies are needed to limit
the effects of trade block? How to promote market
differentiations schemes and versatility?
4. International policies on agri-food need to be defined to allow a broader governance
and more effective controls on sustainable production of food
There is a strong agreement on this statement: 82% of the respondents agree or strongly agree on it
and there is also almost an uniform distribution between North and South respondents.
60 South
34,81 I full agree
50 North
47,51 I agree 40
30
10,5 Neither agree nor disagree
20
6,63 I disagree 10
0,55 I strongly disagree 0
I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
SOCIETY Yes - No
International policies Yes Opportunity Sustainability of food value chain is generally
on agri-food need to interpreted as an OPPORTUNITY and priority requisite
be defined to allow a to be met at the international level, in compliance with
broader governance the EC 2020 “farm to fork” communication.
and more effective
controls on sustainable CHALLENGES: How to enforce international
production of food cooperation to increase governance and control on
agrifood practices?
8 Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood5. Food security and regional/national self-sufficiency will become more important
There is a strong agreement on this statement: 82% of the respondents agree or strongly agree on
it but if we consider the responses by area the situation is very different between North and South
respondents. While North respondents all converge in agreeing or fully agreeing the statement, the
South respondents are equally divergent between agree and don’t agree.
50 South
40,33 I full agree
40 North
41,99 I agree
30
12,15 Neither agree nor disagree 20
3,87 I disagree 10
1,66 I strongly disagree 0
I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
SOCIETY Yes - No
Food security and Y&N Opportunity Increasing the rate of food internal supply at national
regional/national self- & Threat and regional level is seen as an OPPORTUNITY in
sufficiency will become most cases. Nevertheless, this is highly dependent
more important from climate and environmental contexts, and can
represent a THREAT for example in conditions of
water scarcity (limited self-sufficiency). Divergent
results recorded for the southern area may depend
from contextual reasons.
CHALLENGES: How to support the establishment of
more consistent national and regional food value chain
networks? How to remedy the lack of self-sufficiency
(when relevant) to guarantee food security?
6. Agrifood supply chains will become shorter
There is not a strong convergence for this statement: only 50% of the respondents agree on it, while
30% have a netrual position. South respondents agree with it more than North repondents.
80 South
9,39 I full agree 70 North
60
48,62 I agree
50
40
29,83 Neither agree nor disagree
30
11,6 I disagree 20
10
0,55 I strongly disagree 0
I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
SOCIETY Yes - No
Agrifood supply chains Yes Opportunity Short food supply chains and lively local food
will become shorter markets are generally agreed to be an OPPORTUNITY
to enforce local economies around welfare and
healthiness of local communities, including rural
settlements. This is expected to increase resilience of
the agrifood sector and contribute to food security.
CHALLENGES: how to support rural communities?
How to engage smallholders and agribusinesses?
How to strengthen value chain networks as market
leverage?
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 97. Innovative approaches will be needed to secure food supplies to vulnerable groups
There is a strong agreement on this statement: 84% of the respondents agree or strongly agree on it
and there is also almost a uniform distribution between North and South respondents.
60 South
36,46 I full agree 50 North
46,96 I agree 40
30
13,26 Neither agree nor disagree
20
2,21 I disagree 10
0
1,1 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
SOCIETY Yes - No
Innovative approaches Yes Opportunity Innovation offers multiple OPPORTUNITIES from
will be needed to both the production and the consumption side but
secure food supplies to also concerns social issues that need to be managed
vulnerable groups by combining efforts of public institutions and
businesses.
CHALLENGES: How to increase the access to fresh
food with a key role played by retailers and local food
suppliers? How to decrease food waste throughout
the production chain? How to promote healthy food
habits (e.g. Mediterranean diet) and avoid low-cost
hyper-processed food consumption?
8. Price volatility of agricultural commodities will grow
68% of the respondents agree or fully agree on this statement and the distribution of the answer by
area are completely equivalent. 23% of respondents are neutral on this statement.
60 South
17,68 I full agree 50 North
49,72 I agree 40
30
23,2 Neither agree nor disagree
20
9,39 I disagree 10
0
- I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
SOCIETY Yes - No
Price volatility Yes Threat Price volatility is generally perceived as a THREAT
of agricultural especially concerning agricultural commodities with
commodities will grow potential consequences on food security.
CHALLENGES: What policies are needed to safeguard
primary productions from market changes?
10 Future Scenarios for EuroMed AgrifoodSummary of systems and society pillar
Large consensus versus ‘agree’ position Not convergence and doubtfull positioning
y Limitations to mobility of temporary agricultural y Major disruptions in international food supply
work force will negatively impact production chains will occur
y International trade will slow down y Agrifood supply chains will become shorter
y International policies on agri-food need to
be defined to allow a broader governance
and more effective controls on sustainable
production of food
y Food security and regional/national
self-sufficiency will become more important
y Innovative approaches will be needed to secure
food supplies to vulnerable groups
y Price volatility of agricultural commodities
will grow
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 11Business
1. The introduction of technological innovations (Agriculture 4.0, artificial intelligence,
digitalization, blockchains, innovative research-based products …) will become crucial for
agrifood businesses to survive
There is a strong agreement on this statement: 74% of respondents agree or fully agree with it. If we
consider the distribution of the responses by area, South med respondents agree more than North
ones. North respondents have a larger percentage of neutral positions.
80 South
27,62 I full agree 70 North
60
46,41 I agree 50
40
19,89 Neither agree nor disagree 30
20
4,42 I disagree
10
0
1,66 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
BUSINESS Yes - No
The introduction Yes Opportunity Innovative technologies offer multiple
of technological OPPORTUNITIES by engaging different value chain
innovations (Agriculture actors and can become a leverage for the market,
4.0, artificial intelligence, by increasing yields, efficiency and sustainability
digitalization, blockchains, of food productions as well as communication and
innovative research-based engagement of consumers.
products,…) will become
crucial for agrifood CHALLENGES: What tools and incentives should be
businesses to survive implemented to support innovation action? What
direction is expected to be addressed by innovation?
2. The introduction of organisational innovations (new business models, aggregations,
partnerships,…) will become crucial for agrifood businesses to survive
There is a strong consensus on this statement: 80% of the respontents agree or fully agree on this
statement and the distribution of the answer by area is completely equivalent. 17% of respondents are
neutral on this statement.
60 South
29,83 I full agree 50 North
50,28 I agree 40
30
17,13 Neither agree nor disagree
20
1,66 I disagree 10
0
1,1 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
BUSINESS Yes - No
The introduction of Yes Opportunity Organisational innovation has much to do with the
organisational innovations problem of fragmentation of the agrifood sector and
(new business models, the OPPORTUNITY to increase cooperation among
aggregations, partnerships, value chain actors, made of smallholders, including
…) will become crucial for farmers, food processors and retailers.
agrifood businesses to
survive CHALLENGES: How to increase innovation capacity
building of smallholders and SMEs in the agrifood
sector? How to support smallholders and give them
access to innovation through direct collaboration with
research centres and open innovation initiatives?
12 Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood3. E-commerce will streamline value chains and digital sales will grow
There is a strong consensus on this statement: 85% of the respontents agree or fully agree on this
statement and the distribution of the answers by area is very similar. North respondents have an higher
percentage of strong agreement.
80 South
27,62 I full agree 70 North
60
46,41 I agree
50
40
19,89 Neither agree nor disagree
30
4,42 I disagree 20
10
1,66 I strongly disagree 0
I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
BUSINESS Yes - No
E-commerce will Yes Opportunity Sustainability of e-commerce is controversial,
streamline value chains especially concerning the spatial dimension of the
and digital sales will grow supply chain that is often global. Nevertheless, it
represents an effective OPPORTUNITY for accessing
food sources and eventually supporting smallholders.
CHALLENGES: How to guarantee sustainability and
traceability through e-commerce? What strategies
to prevent overexploitation, delocalisation and spill-
over effects of globalisation?
4. Major financial problems will affect smallholders
There is a strong consensus on this statement: 73% of the respontents agree or fully agree on this
statement and the distribution of the answers by area is very similar. 20% of respondents have a
neutral to the statement.
80 South
34,25 I full agree 70 North
60
50,83 I agree
50
40
12,15 Neither agree nor disagree
30
2,21 I disagree 20
10
0,55 I strongly disagree 0
I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
BUSINESS Yes - No
Major financial problems Yes Threat Given the majority of food growers are smallholders
will affect smallholders with limited financial allocation, economic
sustainability of the agrifood sector depends to the
capacity to manage this THREAT attempting food
security in case of emergency.
CHALLENGES: What financial tools can support
smallholders and foster value chain networks
development?
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 135. Major financial problems will affect SMEs in the agrifood sector
63% of respondents agree or fully agree on the statement and the distribution is similar by area. The
percentage of respondents with a neutral position versus this statement is very high: 28%.
50 South
29,28 I full agree North
40
44,2 I agree
30
20,44 Neither agree nor disagree 20
5,52 I disagree 10
0
0,55 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
BUSINESS Yes - No
Major financial problems Yes Threat Given the majority of food value chain actors are
will affect SMEs in the SMEs with limited financial allocation, economic
agrifood sector sustainability of the agrifood sector depends the
capacity to manage this THREAT attempting food
security in case of emergency.
CHALLENGES: What financial tools can support
smallholders and foster value chain networks
development? How to make big retailers interact and
cooperate with SMEs as local suppliers?
6. Major financial problems will affect big agrifood businesses
There is no convergence versus this statement, 32% of respondents don’t agree with it, 30% agree or
fully agree and 38% are neutral.
40 South
6,08 I full agree 35
North
30
24,31 I agree 25
20
38,12 Neither agree nor disagree 15
10
31,49 I disagree 5
0
- I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
BUSINESS Yes - No
Major financial problems No Opportunity Big agrifood businesses, including food industry and
will affect big agrifood retailers, are perceived as most stable and resilient.
businesses Their role as business collectors can represent an
OPPORTUNITY, given the necessary condition of a
drastic transition to sustainable practices and fair
trades.
CHALLENGES: How to operate the transition to more
sustainable practices, including traceability and fair
trade of big businesses? What tools and innovations
can contribute to drive the change?
14 Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood7. Attention to the scenario post COVID will induce businesses to give less attention
to Agenda 2030
Also this answer, as the previous one, presents very scattered answers: 41% of respondents agree or
fully agree with it, 25% don’t agree or strongly disagree and 34% have a neutral position. South Med
respondents agree more than North ones.
50 South
11,6 I full agree North
40
29,28 I agree
30
34,25 Neither agree nor disagree
20
22,65 I disagree 10
2,21 I strongly disagree 0
I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
BUSINESS Yes - No
Attention to the scenario Y&N Opportunity The THREAT of less attention to SDGs exists, but
post COVID will induce in general the COVID crisis is interpreted as an
businesses to give less OPPORTUNITY to emphasize the urgency of the
attention to Agenda 2030 climate crisis and the need of change.
CHALLENGES: How to make agribusinesses operate
as agents of change by implementing sustainable
practices and healthy food production. What tools
and innovations are needed to prevent or eventually
face new crises?
8. Risk management will become more relevant
This statement reports a strong consensus: 82% of respondents agree or strongly agree on it. The
level of agreement is similar for both Med area, with the South respondents that report higher level of
agreement, while 13% of North respondent are neutral to this statement.
60 South
30,94 I full agree North
50
50,83 I agree 40
12,71 Neither agree nor disagree 30
20
4,97 I disagree
10
0,55 I strongly disagree 0
I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
BUSINESS Yes - No
Risk management will Yes Opportunity Among the OPPORTUNITIES emerged from the health
become more relevant emergency, risk management can become a standard
practice to avoid crisis and reduce THREATS.
CHALLENGES: What tools for risk management
should be developed and made accessible to
both big agribusinesses and smallholders? What
risk assessment methods and policies should be
implemented at national/regional level?
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 15Summary of business pillar Large consensus versus ‘agree’ position Not convergence and doubtfull positioning y The introduction of technological y Major financial problems will affect big agrifood innovations (Agriculture 4.0, artificial businesses intelligence, digitalization, blockchains, y Attention to the scenario post COVID will innovative research-based products…) will induce businesses to give less attention to become crucial for agrifood businesses to Agenda 2030 survive y The introduction of organisational innovations (new business models, aggregations, partnerships, …) will become crucial for agrifood businesses to survive y E-commerce will streamline value chains and digital sales will grow y Major financial problems will affect smallholders y Major financial problems will affect SMEs in the agrifood sector y Risk management will become more relevant 16 Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood
Consumers
1. Consumers will give more attention to sustainably produced food
This statement does not resch the convergence between respondents: 47% agree or fully agree with
it, 21% don’t agree or strongly disagree and 32% are neutral versus the statement. The distributions of
answers by area are similar, the largest differences in percentage is for the South respondent that fully
agree with the statement with a pergentage higher than North ones, while for the North respondents
we fined the opposite situation in ‘don’t agree’.
40 South
9,94 I full agree 35 North
30
37,02 I agree 25
20
31,49 Neither agree nor disagree 15
10
20,44 I disagree 5
0
1,1 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
CONSUMERS Yes - No
Consumers will give more Y&N Opportunity Despite current trends to purchase low cost instead
attention to sustainably of healthy food are increasing and represent a
produced food critical THREAT, consumers look more sensible to
sustainability and origin of food. The OPPORTUNITY
to make European Food a standard for sustainability
(EC 2020) is concrete but will require efforts in terms
of innovation and communication.
CHALLENGES: What strategies can be implemented
to support sustainable practices of food production
and promote sustainable food consumption? What
tools to inform consumers on sustainability and origin
of food?
2. Consumers will give more attention to nutritious and healthy food
Also for this statement the level of agreement is not so high: 58% of respondents agree or fully agree
with it, but the percentage of neutral respondents is high, 30%. Again respondents from North Med
are more neutral than South ones and respondents from South fully agree with the statement with a
pergentage that is double than the one of North Med respondents.
50 South
14,92 I full agree North
40
43,09 I agree 30
30,39 Neither agree nor disagree 20
10,5 I disagree 10
0
1,1 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
CONSUMERS Yes - No
Consumers will give more Yes Opportunity Consumers look more sensible to quality of food.
attention to nutritious and The OPPORTUNITY to change food habits of
healthy food consumers is concrete but will require efforts in terms
of innovation and communication.
CHALLENGES: What strategies can be implemented
to support proper practices of food production/
conservation and promote healthy food consumption?
What tools to inform consumers on quality and origin
of food?
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 173. Due to the economic crisis, consumers will give attention mainly to the price of food
65% of respondents agree or fully agree with this statement, with North Med respondents that report
a percentage of fully agreement double than South Med respondents. The percentage of neutral
respondents is quite large: 21%.
50 South
21,55 I full agree
40 North
43,65 I agree 30
21,55 Neither agree nor disagree 20
12,71 I disagree 10
0
0,55 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
CONSUMERS Yes - No
Due to the economic Yes Threat Current trends to purchase low cost instead of healthy
crisis, consumers will give food are increasing in the EuroMed area and still
attention mainly to the represent a critical THREAT.
price of food
CHALLENGES: What tools can be implemented to
promote healthy food consumption? What tools to
inform consumers on quality and origin of food?
4. Consumers will give more attention to canned and long-life food
There is not convergence at all for this statement, with a bit larger percentage of disagreement: 38%
of respondents don’t agree or strongly disagree with it. 35% of respondents are neutral versus the
statement and 27% agree or fully agree with it. Again the percentage of neutral respondents is higher
for North Med respondents.
50 South
3,31 I full agree
40 North
23,76 I agree
30
34,81 Neither agree nor disagree 20
35,91 I disagree 10
0
2,21 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
CONSUMERS Yes - No
Consumers will give more Y&N Opportunity Trends to purchase canned and long-life food can be
attention to canned and & Threat increased due to the COVID emergency and represent
long-life food a THREAT. The OPPORTUNITY to change food habits,
especially concerning fresh food, from common
retailers and local suppliers, will require efforts in
terms of innovation and communication.
CHALLENGES: What tools can be implemented to
promote healthy food consumption? What tools to
inform consumers on quality and origin of food?
18 Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood5. Consumers will give more attention to rigorous traceability of inputs,
production processes and logistics
51% of respondents agree or fully agree with this statement; however, 31% are neutral versus it and 18%
don’t agree with it. The distribution by area are identical.
50 South
7,73 I full agree
40 North
43,09 I agree 30
30,94 Neither agree nor disagree 20
18,23 I disagree 10
0
- I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
CONSUMERS Yes - No
Consumers will give more Y&N Opportunity Consumers are more interested in knowing food
attention to rigorous origin, quality and production processes. The
traceability of inputs, OPPORTUNITY to change food habits of consumers
production processes and will require efforts in terms of innovation and
logistics communication.
CHALLENGES: What tools can be implemented to
promote healthy food consumption? What tools to
inform consumers on quality and origin of food?
6. The Mediterranean diet will be increasingly adopted
Also for this statement, responses don’t converge versus a precise direction. 40% of respondents
agree or fully agree with it, while 38% are completely neutral and 17% don’t agree or strongly disagree.
50 South
9,39 I full agree
40 North
35,91 I agree 30
37,57 Neither agree nor disagree 20
16,02 I disagree 10
0
1,1 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
CONSUMERS Yes - No
The Mediterranean diet will Yes Opportunity Given current trends towards high trophic diets
be increasingly adopted and the abandon of Mediterranean diet, this is
still perceived as an OPPORTUNITY to promote
sustainable and healthy food habits.
CHALLENGES: What strategies can be implemented
to promote the Mediterranean diet? What tools to
inform consumers on quality and origin of food?
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 197. E-commerce and digital sales will grow
This statement reaches a strong consensus between respondents, 80% of them agree or strongly
agree with it with the same level of percentages by area.
80 South
16,57 I full agree 70 North
60
62,98 I agree 50
40
16,02 Neither agree nor disagree
30
20
3,87 I disagree
10
0,55 I strongly disagree 0
I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
CONSUMERS Yes - No
E-commerce and digital Yes Opportunity Sustainability of e-commerce is controversial and may
sales will grow & Threat represent a THREAT, especially concerning the spatial
dimension of the supply chain that is often global.
Nevertheless, it represents an effective OPPORTUNITY
for accessing food sources and eventually supporting
smallholders.
CHALLENGES: How to guarantee sustainability and
traceability through e-commerce? What strategies to
prevent overexploitation, delocalisation and spill-over
effects of globalisation?
8. Major disruption of street markets will occur
There is no convergence in responses to this statement: 42% of respondents agree or fully agree with
it, while 35% are neutral versus it and 23% do not agree with it. Respondents from South Med have a
bit larger percentages in neutral and ‘agree’ position, while North Med are mostly equally distributed in
the three central positions.
50 South
6,63 I full agree
40 North
35,36 I agree
30
34,81 Neither agree nor disagree 20
22,65 I disagree 10
0
0,55 I strongly disagree I full agree I agree Neither agree I disagree I strongly
nor disagree disagree
Statements Prevalent Opportunity Critical issues and challenges
answer vs Threat
CONSUMERS Yes - No
Major disruption of street Y&N Threat The effects on street markets that have been
markets will occur temporary closed has been interpreted as a critical
THREAT. Local food suppliers and retailers are the
most vulnerable to the crises but could also represent
and OPPORTUNITY for short supply networks in terms
of healthiness, sustainability and food security.
CHALLENGES: What policies to support street
markets and small growers and retailers as important
agents to face new crises? What innovation and tools
can help increasing food security through the direct
engagement of small retailers?
20 Future Scenarios for EuroMed AgrifoodSummary of consumers pillar
Large consensus versus ‘agree’ position Not convergence and doubtfull positioning
y Due to the economic crisis, consumers y Consumers will give more attention
will give attention mainly to the price to sustainably produced food
of food y Consumers will give more attention
y Consumers will give more attention to nutritious and healthy food
to rigorous traceability of inputs, y Consumers will give more attention
production processes and logistics to canned and long-life food
(not strong consensus) y The Mediterranean diet will be increasingly
y E-commerce and digital sales will grow adopted
y Major disruption of street markets will occur
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 21Comments by Experts and Partnering Institutions
Jamie Morrison - FAO
T he disruptions created by the COVID-19 crisis
have accentuated many of the fragilities in
contemporary food systems. Challenges include
to the sustainability of food systems and the need
to factor these into the response and recovery. As
reiterated in a vast array of recent studies, many
accessing safe, nutritious food at affordable food systems already fell short of the aspirations
prices when movement is restricted or markets of the 2030 Agenda. Poverty and hunger remain
close and the vulnerability of employees engaged entrenched and obesity with its associated health
throughout the food system. There are risks to the and economic costs is rising. Food systems
very survival of firms and industries, particularly contribute up to 29% of all anthropogenic
micro, small and medium sized enterprises greenhouse gas emissions and have been a key
including producers, manufacturers, traders, food driver of land use change and biodiversity loss.
processors, transporters, and retailers. Those Food systems themselves are also significantly
engaged in high value, labour intensive, perishable affected by climate change.
commodities such as fruits and vegetables, fish Recovery from the multifaceted crisis must lead
and aquaculture products and meat and dairy to a different way of doing business. It is critical
products, which are essential for good nutrition to “build back better” with actions that catalyze
and have been disproportionally affected. In many transformation to food systems that are resilient
countries, the significant proportions of labour to shocks and that ensure individuals’ health
engaged in informal sector activities throughout and wellbeing, while at the same time promoting
the food system has compounded the impacts on inclusiveness and improving environmental and
livelihoods. economic sustainability by increasing efficiency
and reducing waste. In taking action to support
The pandemic has increased focus on many the improved functionality of these systems
contemporary issues such as antimicrobial during response and recovery, it is imperative that
resistance, zoonotic diseases, climate change, a holistic approach to the analysis of constraints
food fraud, and the digitalization of food systems, and to the trade-offs implicit in their resolution is
each having potentially significant implications adopted.
for the safety of food. Equally, the importance
of preserving and protecting environmental To support countries in building back better, the
resources and biodiversity to maintain the Food and Agriculture Organization has identified
buffer capacity of nature against diseases has five key action areas: (i) innovations for increased
drawn greater attention to significant levels of efficiency, resilience and inclusiveness of food
deforestation and destruction of natural habitats supply chains, (ii) ensuring food safety and
associated with land use change driven by food nutritional quality of food, (iii) reducing food
systems developments. loss and waste; (iv) sustaining and strengthening
agribusiness enterprises; and (v) mechanisms for
However, the disruptions in food systems also increased investment in sustainable food value
create opportunities for driving forward their chains. These action areas together comprise
transformation. The crisis has also shown how the basis of FAO’s COVID-19 response priority on
quickly many parts of the food system have been Food Systems Transformation.
able to respond. Many enterprises have had to
deviate from business-as-usual approaches, using A concrete example of how FAO is working to
alternative input sourcing channels, creating new support such transformation in the Euro-Med
and more localized markets, increasing focus agrifood sector is the Sustainable Food Systems
on inventory management, which will enable Mediterranean Platform. Here, FAO is joining
increase ability to withstand future disruptions, forces with CIHEAM and the Union for the
staggering investment plans, reviewing staff Mediterranean as well as other potential partners,
occupational health and safety practices, and to establish a multi-stakeholder platform to bring
human resource planning in the face of increased together policy makers, scientists with other key
demand or absenteeism. Such actions will have players across the system, to collectively move
longer-term ramifications for organizational towards solutions that work for sustainable food
and social innovations, low- and high-tech systems that deliver healthy diets and offer
innovations, automatization, digitalization, and new economic and social opportunities in the
technologies to protect workers, consumers, and Mediterranean region, driving more sustainable
those engaged in the recovery, redistribution, development, particularly for small scale farmers
and disposal of food. and fishers, as well as for youth and women in
rural areas highly affected by rural migration to
At the same time, we should not lose sight of cities.
some of the fundamental longer-term challenges The SFS-MED platform aims to support the
22 Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifooddevelopment of “flagship” projects to facilitate a series of five interdependent Action Tracks
resource mobilization with key partners, and to on ensuring access to safe and nutritious food,
scale-up actions to positively transform the way shifting to sustainable consumption, boosting
in which food is produced, processed, distributed nature positive production, advancing equitable
and consumed across the Mediterranean region. livelihoods and building resilience. Complemented
by country level dialogues, they will offer a space
Flagships such as these can constitute a key input to share and learn across constituencies with a
to the United Nations Food Systems Summit in view to accelerating progress by fostering new
2021, which provides a timely opportunity to forge partnerships and amplifying existing initiatives.
the interconnected actions and commitments
that are needed to transform to more sustainable
food systems. A central component of the
process towards the Food Systems Summit is
Marta Guadalupe – JPI FACCE
T he priority for the agri-food sector should be
to be able to provide healthy and sustainable
food for all which is resilient to shocks like COVID
With the pandemics one of the trends we
are witnessing is a reinforcement of regional
and local food markets and the recognition of
or climate change. That means to reinforce agriculture as an essential activity. The lockdown
small-scale and family farming so they can: 1) has reduced the provision of food from the global
increase their sustainability by reducing the use market, as well as the availability of farming inputs
of agrochemicals; 2) create learning platforms for industrial farming. In that manner, reinforcing
where farmers can share knowledge with those local and regional markets has been perceived
producers already implementing agroecological as one way to increase resilience in the food
practices; 3) access local markets (that also system. This does not mean to close the global
need to be reinforced) and sell their product at market, but rather to continue reinforcing local
a fair price that allows them to cover production and regional ones. From this perspective, the
costs; 4) increase the number of producers pandemics has opened a window of opportunity
in Europe, that has been suffering a constant into this direction. Indeed, local farmers who
decline, as well as in those Mediterranean where had some previous conditions (e.g. processing
countries young people is also abandoning rural and conservation infrastructures, networks with
areas. That means among other challenges, that other farmers) have autonomously increased
farmers can have access to land; and 5) reduce their marketing options. These types of initiatives
the production of industrial animal farming and need to be reinforced and make easy to those
reinforce mix-farming systems and extensive/ farmers access the market, reducing, for instance,
pastoralist production systems. At the consumer the bureaucratic workload and restrictions. From
side, it is also needed to increase the access a food system perspective, that means also
to healthy and sustainable food by changing changes in diets, for instance, towards seasonal
the food environment, e.g. supporting through food products, which also is a positive feedback
fiscal measures healthy and sustainable food, in our pursuit of sustainable food systems.
reinforcing local markets, including farmers
markets. Social safety nets are also required to I would consider one specific action both at the
allow vulnerable consumers to access healthy producer and consumer side. At the producers’
and sustainable food since are those vulnerable side one of the most important actions is to
social groups the ones suffering the most the guarantee safe access to land to young farmers
impacts of the nutrition transition and the that can produce healthy and sustainable food,
associated pandemics of obesity. Measures ensure generational renewal (one of the weakest
approaching the consumer side should also aim points of our food systems now) as well as reduce
at changing dietary habits and reducing food the number of inhabitants in our overcrowded
waste. One of the most rapid and easiest changes cities. At the consumers’ side I would prioritise the
into the directions I outline here is through the reduction of meat consumption from industrial
role played by the public procurement, where farming through fiscal measures and education
the public administrations should provision their campaigns, among other potential actions.
different institutions (e.g. schools, hospitals,
nursing homes) with healthy food produced in a
sustainable way reinforcing the local production.
All these measures should also lead to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions associated with the
food system and adapt to climate change.
Future Scenarios for EuroMed Agrifood 23You can also read
