FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung

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FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH
Perspectives from Urban Studies

Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
Berlin, May 2013

Duncan Smith, LSE Cities / Urban Age Programme
London School of Economics and Political Science
FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
Challenges of Prediction & Peak Travel

Cities, Innovation and Urban Form

Lock-in and Adaptability

Path-breaking Transport Innovations
FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
Challenges of Prediction & Peak Travel

Cities, Innovation and Urban Form

Lock-in and Adaptability

Path-breaking Transport Innovations
FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
MOTORISATION IN WEST GERMANY- FORECAST VS ACTUAL
Source: Schuehle 1986, Heinze/Kill 2000
      Motorisation
  (vehicles in millions)
      45
                                                                                     23
                                                                                                  1 Zimmermann 1955
                                                                                     25           2 Zimmermann 1959
      40                                                                                          3 Schimtz/Gerhard 1957
                                                                                     22           4 Esso 1958
                                                                                     24           5 Shell 1959
      35                                                                                          6 Shell 1961
                                                                                     16
                                                                                     21           7 Shell 1969
                                                                                                  8 Shell 1971
                                                                             20
                                                                            19                    9 Shell 1973
      30                                                                    18                   10 Shell 1977
                                                                           17                    11 Lenk 1962
                                                                    10                           12 Lehberg 1962
      25                                                            11                           13 Lehberg halblog
                                                                     9                           14 Frerich/Sarrazin 1973
                                                                    15
                                                        14
                                                                                                 15 DIW 1977
      20                                                 8                                       16 DIW 1989
                                                   6                                             17 Shell 1979
                                                        7
                                                                                                 18 Shell 1981
                                                                                                 19 Shell 1985
      15
                                                                                                 20 Shell 1987
                                        12
                                                                                                 21 Shell 1989
                                        13   5                                                   22 Shell 1991
      10                                                                                         23 Umweltbundesamt 1990
                                                                                                 24 ITP/IVT 1991
                                4   2                                                            25 DIW 1994 (ABL)
                                    3
      5
                            1

      1950           1960           1970         1980        1990        2000     2010    Year
FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
TOTAL MOTORIZED TRAVEL ACTIVITY 1970-2007/8 - PEAK TRAVEL?
Source: Millard-Ball and Schipper 2011, includes domestic air
travel
FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
CAR OWNERSHIP 1970-2007/8
Source: Millard-Ball and Schipper 2011
FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
PEAK TRAVEL – UNITED KINGDOM
Source: Economist 2012 / Department of
Transport
FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
WHY MIGHT PEAK TRAVEL BE OCCURRING?

      Economic-
      Significant fuel price increases and squeezed incomes across many population groups,
      exacerbated by major recession.

      Travel Time Saturation-
      Given 1 hour daily travel budget (Zahavi, 1980; Marchetti, 1994), reached mobility saturation
      with sufficient choice for most common journeys. Diminishing utility of further travel (Metz,
      2010).

      Land-use Planning-
      Restricted road building and urban regeneration boosted local accessibility and brought
      new equilibrium in land-use transport systems (Newman & Kenworthy, 2011; Lucas & Jones,
      2009).

      Car Ownership Attitudes-
      Car as major consumer status symbol challenged in younger demographics (Urry, 2009),
      declining licenses and use. New flexible economies of access and ownership emerging.

      Internet and Social Networking-
      Increasing ability to socialise and shop online, with great choice and convenience.
      Potentially will reduce trips.

      Demographics and Migration-
      More globalised networks of social connections, more students, more leisure time, more
      elderly groups. Some regional travel replaced by international flights.
FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
PEAK TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS

       Income and Mobility-
       Core modelling assumptions about increased mobility and travel
       with rising income fundamentally challenged.

       Travel Sustainability Opportunities-
       New lifestyles and cultures being forged. Ideal opportunity for
       more sustainable transport systems and behaviours to be
       realised. Not all positive, e.g. global air travel.

       ICT & Travel-
       ICT seems to be radically changing travel demand for certain
       trips. Substitution but also connected while travelling.

       Developing World
       Many aspects of peak travel trends not applicable in Newly
       Industrialising Countries, where car use expanding rapidly. Yet
       also signs of significant public transport innovations from NICs.
FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
Challenges of Prediction & Peak Travel

Cities, Innovation and Urban Form

Lock-in and Adaptability

Path-breaking Transport Innovations
2%
of the earth’s surface is urbanised

53%
of the world’s population is urban
Cities exist to eliminate
transport costs for
people, goods and
ideas.
Ed Glaeser
CITY FORM

URBAN TRANSPORT
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
  Innovation

                                  2nd wave
                1st wave

                                   Steam &
                Industrial         Railways
                    Iron             Steel
               Water power          Cotton
               Mechanisation       Telegraph
                  Textiles
                Commerce

    1785                   1845                1900   1950   1990   2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
  Innovation

                                  2nd wave
                1st wave

                                   Steam &
                Industrial         Railways
                    Iron             Steel
               Water power          Cotton
               Mechanisation       Telegraph
                  Textiles
                Commerce

    1785                   1845                1900   1950   1990   2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
  Innovation

                                                      3rd wave

                                  2nd wave
                1st wave
                                                      Electricity &
                                   Steam &               Steel
                Industrial         Railways              Heavy
                    Iron             Steel            Engineering
               Water power          Cotton             Chemicals
               Mechanisation       Telegraph           Telephone
                  Textiles                             Skyscraper
                Commerce

    1785                   1845                1900               1950   1990   2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
  Innovation

                                                      3rd wave

                                  2nd wave
                1st wave
                                                      Electricity &
                                   Steam &               Steel
                Industrial         Railways              Heavy
                    Iron             Steel            Engineering
               Water power          Cotton             Chemicals
               Mechanisation       Telegraph           Telephone
                  Textiles                             Skyscraper
                Commerce

    1785                   1845                1900               1950   1990   2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION

                                                                      4th wave
  Innovation

                                                      3rd wave

                                  2nd wave
                1st wave                                                   Oil &
                                                      Electricity &    Automobiles
                                   Steam &               Steel        Petrochemicals
                Industrial         Railways              Heavy          Electronics
                    Iron             Steel            Engineering        Aviation
               Water power          Cotton             Chemicals        Television
               Mechanisation       Telegraph           Telephone
                  Textiles                             Skyscraper
                Commerce

    1785                   1845                1900               1950           1990   2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION

                                                                      4th wave
  Innovation

                                                      3rd wave

                                  2nd wave
                1st wave                                                   Oil &
                                                      Electricity &    Automobiles
                                   Steam &               Steel        Petrochemicals
                Industrial         Railways              Heavy          Electronics
                    Iron             Steel            Engineering        Aviation
               Water power          Cotton             Chemicals        Television
               Mechanisation       Telegraph           Telephone
                  Textiles                             Skyscraper
                Commerce

    1785                   1845                1900               1950           1990   2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION

                                                                               5th wave

                                                                      4th wave
  Innovation

                                                      3rd wave

                                  2nd wave
                                                                                    Information &
                1st wave                                                   Oil &       Telecom
                                                      Electricity &    Automobiles Digital networks
                                   Steam &               Steel        Petrochemicals Information
                Industrial                               Heavy          Electronics   Technology
                                   Railways                                          Biotechnology
                    Iron             Steel            Engineering        Aviation
               Water power          Cotton             Chemicals        Television
               Mechanisation       Telegraph           Telephone
                  Textiles                               Radio
                Commerce

    1785                   1845                1900               1950           1990          2020
CORE VS BELT GROWTH 1995-2008 – SELECTED OECD METROS
Source: OCED 2011

                     -1%                       0       1%
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
                                                                                                6th wave

                                                                                                      Cleantech &
                                                                               5th wave               Efficiency?

                                                                                                       Post-car?

                                                                      4th wave                  Industrial Ecology?
                                                                                                    Distributed
                                                                                                  Manufacturing?
  Innovation

                                                      3rd wave                                           Artificial
                                                                                                      Intelligence?

                                  2nd wave
                                                                                    Information &
                1st wave                                                   Oil &       Telecom
                                                      Electricity &    Automobiles Digital networks
                                   Steam &               Steel        Petrochemicals Information
                Industrial                               Heavy          Electronics   Technology
                                   Railways                                          Biotechnology
                    Iron             Steel            Engineering        Aviation
               Water power          Cotton             Chemicals        Television
               Mechanisation       Telegraph           Telephone
                  Textiles                             Skyscraper
                Commerce

    1785                   1845                1900               1950           1990          2020
BARCELONA VS ATLANTA
Source: Bertaud and Richardson, 2004

                        Atlanta

                                       Barcelona
URBAN DENSITY

           NEW YORK   SHANGHAI     MUMBAI

         SÃO PAULO      ISTANBUL   LONDON
Challenges of Prediction & Peak Travel

Cities, Innovation and Urban Form

Lock-in and Adaptability

Path-breaking Transport Innovations
EUROPE: 95 PER CENT OF 2030 URBAN STRUCTURES
EXISTS TODAY
TYPICAL DESIGN LIFE OF URBAN STRUCTURES – PHYSICAL LOCK-INS

Roads                         20 to 30 years
Highways                      20 to 50 years
Stadium                       20 to 40 years
Water infrastructure          20 to 40 years
Sewage system                 30 to 70 years
Apartment buildings           40 to 70 years
Office Building               40 to 50 years
Railway infrastructure        50 to 60 years
Telephone cables              30 to 40 years
Airports                      40 to 100 years
Bridges                       50 to 100 years
Tunnel structures             50 to 100 years
COPENHAGEN ‘FINGER PLAN’
URBAN DYNAMICS AND CONTINUITY

      Creative Destruction-
      City economies in constant flux with phases of growth linked to new
      technologies. Fundamentally shape city form during different eras,
      wide diversity of urban forms.

      Physical Lock-In
      Economic dynamism in contrast to fixed, enduring nature of the built-
      environment. Infrastructure locks-in behaviours and patterns of
      resource use.

      Adaptability and Resilience
      Challenge therefore to enable sustainable cities that are efficient and
      flexible to accommodate new technologies and industries.

      Accessible for range of transport modes, and enable new forms of
      communication and travel.

      What are the Current Transport Innovations Shaping World
      Cities?
Challenges of Prediction & Peak Travel

Cities, Innovation and Urban Form

Lock-in and Adaptability

Path-breaking Transport Innovations
BUS RAPID TRANSIT
BUS RAPID TRANSIT WORLDWIDE
Map by LSE Cities, Data: Global BRT, 2013
BUS RAPID TRANSIT WORLDWIDE
Map by LSE Cities, Data: Global BRT, 2013
BIKE SHARING
BUS RAPID
BIKE SHARETRANSIT
           SCHEMESWORLDWIDE
                   WORLDWIDE
Map by LSE Cities. Data source: O’Brien
2012
BUS RAPID
BIKE SHARETRANSIT
           SCHEMESWORLDWIDE
                   WORLDWIDE
Map by LSE Cities. Data source: O’Brien
2012
Number of trips to-from inner city
              Relative change in bicycle
                                                                      on weekdays by bicycle
                  use (2001=100%)
                                                                           (Thousands)

                                                              80
                                                                              120
                                                                                          160
                                                                                                      200

                50
                             100
                                           150
                                                      1990

 1990
                                                      2000

 2000
                                                                                                                   URBAN CYCLING TRENDS

                                            Berlin
                                                                                                      Copenhagen

                                                     0
                                                     201

 2010
        Number of trips to central London during                         NYC Commuter cycle
         morning peak by bicycle (Thousands)                                  indicator

                       10
                                             20
                                                                        100
                                                                                    200
                                                                                                300

                                                       1990

 1990
                                                       2000

 2000
                                            London
                                                                                                      New York

0
                                                       2010

201
CONGESTION PRICING
LONDON CAR USE DECLINE

                                                              Zero Car Households London
       All Traffic, Total Vehicle km
                                                      60

                                                                                          2001
                                                      50
                                                                                          2011

                                                      40

                                       Households %
                                                      30

                                                      20

                                                      10

                                                       0
                                                           All London   Inner London Outer London
CONGESTION PRICING WORLDWIDE
CONGESTION PRICING WORLDWIDE
Aachen            Biel                  Chur                Erfurt           Grenoble               Iéna                 Laufon               Maidstone            Neuchâtel            Pforzheim         Rothrist           Solothurn          Varik                Yverdon
Aalsmeer          Bielefeld             Clermont-Ferrand    Erlangen         Grenoble               Ilanz                Lausanne             Mainz                Neuenhof             Pfullingen        Rotkreuz           South_Brent        Västerås             Zaandam
Aarau             Bienne                Cleveland           Erstfeld         Greven                 Illnau               Lausen               Majornas             Neuhausen            Philadelphia      Rottenburg         Southampton        Vaxholm              Zagreb
Aarhus            Bilthoven             Coburg              Esbjerg          Greyrock_Commons       Ingolstadt           Le Locle             Malmö                Neuss                Pieterlen         Rotterdam          Speyer             Växjö                Zaltbommel

CAR SHARING
Abcoude
Adiswil
Adligenswil
                  Binningen
                  Birmingham
                  Birsfelden
                                        Colbe
                                        Colchester
                                        Colne_Valley
                                                            Eskilstuna
                                                            Espoo
                                                            Essen
                                                                             Groningen
                                                                             Grootebroek
                                                                             Grut
                                                                                                    Innsbruck
                                                                                                    Interlaken
                                                                                                    Ipsach
                                                                                                                         Leeds
                                                                                                                         Leeuwarden
                                                                                                                         Lehrte
                                                                                                                                              Malters
                                                                                                                                              Manchester
                                                                                                                                              Mannedorf
                                                                                                                                                                   Neu-Ulm
                                                                                                                                                                   New York City
                                                                                                                                                                   Newcastle
                                                                                                                                                                                        Pittsburgh
                                                                                                                                                                                        Plannegg
                                                                                                                                                                                        Plochingen
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Rotterdam
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Rubigen
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Rudolfstetten
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Spiez
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Spijkenisse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             St._Gallen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Veenendaal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Veldhoven
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Veltheim
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Zeist
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Zevenaar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Zoetermeer
Aesch             Bludenz               Copenhagen          Esslingen        Gstaad                 Irvine               Leicester            Mannheim             Newtown              Poitiers          Rümlang            St._Pölten         Venis                Zoeterwoude-dorp
Affoltern/A.      Boblingen             Corburg             Ettlingen        Guelph                 Iserlohn             Leicester_Woodgate   Marburg              Nice                 Poole             Rüschlikon         St_Albans          Venlo                Zoeterwoude-rijndijk
Alexandria.       Bochum                Cothen              Eugene           Gümligen               Ithica               Leiden               Marl                 Nidau                Porrentruy        Rüti               St_Austell         Vevey                Zofingen
Alkmaar           Boden                 Cottbus             Eutin            Guildford              Ittigen              Leiderdorp           Marly                Niederbipp           Portland          Rumlang            Stade              Victoria             Zollikerberg
Allschwil         Bologna               Cranfield           Exeter           Haarlem                Jegenstorf           Leipzig              Marseilles           Niedererlinsbach     Portsmouth        Ruschlikon         Stafa              Vienna               Zollikofen
Almere            Bolzano/Bozen         Culemborg           Fairfax_County   Hagen                  Jena                 Lelystad             Marthalen            Niederglatt          Potsdam           Russelsheim        Stans              Viernheim            Zuchwil
Alpnach           Bonn                  Dachau              Falkenberg       Halberstadt            Jona                 Lelystad             Martigny             Niederhasli          Pratteln          Ruswil             Stansstad          Villach              Zug
Altdorf           Bonstetten            Dancing Rabbit      Fallanden        Halifax                Jönköping            Lent                 Mastricht            Niederlenz           Preetz            Rutledge           Starrkirch-Will    Vinterviken          Zurich
Altstatten        Borås                 Darmstadt           Falun            Halle                  Jylland              Lenzburg             Maur                 Niederrohrdorf       Prilly            Sgraveland         Stavanger          Viskafors            Zutphen
Amersfoort        Bordeaux              Davos               Farum            Halmstad               Kaarst               Leusden              Maurik               Niederscherli        Prince Georges    Sgravenhage        Steffisburg        Vlaardingen          Zweisimmen
Amriswil          Bordesholm            De bilt             Faulensee        Hamburg                Kalmar               Leuven               Mayence              Niederweningen       County            Saarbrucken        Steinbach          Volketswil           Zwijndrecht
Amstelveen        Borlänge              Degersheim          Feldkirch        Hameln                 Kapfenberg           Leverkusen           Mechelen             Nieuwegein           Princeton         Sabadell           Steinen            Voorburg             Zwischenwasser
Amsterdam         Boston                Delémont            Fellbach         Hanau                  Karlsruhe            Lewes                Meggen               Nieuwerkerk ijssel   Puch/Hallein      Sachseln           Steinhausen        Voorhout             Zwolle
Amsterdam_Zuid Bottmingen               Delft               Filderstadt      Hannover               Karlstad             Lichfield            Meiringen            Nijmegen             Puchheim          Saint_Paul         Steyr              Vught
Amstetten         Boulder               Delft               Flawil           Harderwijk             Kassel               Lichtensteig         Melbourne            Nimes                Pully             SaintQuentin       Stockholm          Wabern
Andelfingen       Bovenkarspel          Delfzijl            Florence         Haren                  Katwijk              Liège                Memmingen            Noordwijk            Purmerend         Sala               Strasburg          Wadenswil
Andermatt         Bozen                 Den_Bosch           Fort_Collins     Hasle                  Kehrsatz             Lienden              Mendrisio            Noordwijkerhout      Québec            Salisbury          Stroud             Wageningen
Ann_Arbor         Bradford-on-Avon Den_Haag                 Fort_Wayne       Hasselt                Kempten              Liestal              Menzingen            Norwich              Quebec_City       Salzburg           Stutensee          Waiblingen
Antwerp           Braunschweig          Denver              Frankfurt/M      Hausen_am_Albis        Kesgrave             Ligerz/Twann         Merseburg            Nottuln              Radolfzell        Samedan            Stuttgart          Wald
Apeldoorn         Breda                 Dessau              Frauenfeld       Hebden_Bridge          Kiel                 Lignon               Merzhausen           Nürnberg             Rafz              San_Diego          Süßen              Wallisellen
Appenzell         Breda                 Detroit             Freising         Hedingen               Kingston             Lilienthal           Mettmenstetten       Nussbaumen           Rankwell          San_Francisco      Suhr               Waltrop
Arbon             Bregenz               Deventer            Frenkendorf      Heemstede              Kirchberg            Lille                Meyrin               Nyon                 Rannebergens      Sant_Cugat         Sundbyberg         Warnsveld
Arlington         Bremen                Dielsdorf           Fribourg         Heerbrugg              Kirchheim            Limerick             Middelburg           Oakland              Rapperswil        Santa_Barbara      Sundsvall          Washington_DC
Arnhem            Bremerhaven           Diemen              Frick            Heerlen                Kirchheim/Teck       Lindau               Milan                Oberägeri            Ratekau           Santa_Monica       Sursee             Wattenscheid
Arnstadt          Bremgarten            Dietikon            Frutigen         Heidelberg             Kirchlindach         Linköping            Minden               Oberdiessbach        Ratisbonne        Santpoort noord    Suszligen          Wattwil
Arth-Goldau       Brig                  Dinant              Fukuoka          Heiden                 Kirchzarten          Linz                 Minneapolis/St._Paul Oberdorf/Stans       Ratzeburg         Sapporo            Swansea            Weert
Ashburton         Brighton              Doetinchem          Furth            Heidenheim             Kitakyushu           Lisse                Mittelhäusen         Oberentfelden        Ravensburg        Sargans            Sydney             Weesp
Aspen             Brighton_&_Hove Domat/Ems                 Gainesville      Heiloo                 Kitchener-Waterloo   Littau               Modena               Oberglatt            Reading           Sarnen             Therwil            Weinfelden
Assen             Brigue                Dordrecht           Gallaway         Heimenschwand          Kitsap_County        Liverpool            Mödling              Oberhausen           Rebstein          Sarrebruck         Thun               Weingarten
Atlanta           Brisbane              Dornach             Garching         Helsingborg            Klagenfurt           Llanidoes            Mohlin               Oberkirch            Redmond           Saskatoon          Thusis             Weinheim
Baar              Bristol               Dornach-Arlesheim   Gatineau         Helsinki               Klosters             Locarno              Mölndal              Oberlunkhofen        Refrath           Sassenheim         Thyholm            Weiz
Bad_Gleichenberg Brønshøj               Dornbirn            Gauting          Hemsbach               Kloten               Lochem               Mönchaltorf          Oberrieden           Regensburg        Schaffhausen       Tibro              Wels
Bad_Homburg       Brookline             Dortmund            Gävle            Hengelo                Knonau               Lohmar               Mons                 Oberursel            Regensdorf        Schalkwijk         Tiel               Wettenberg
Bad_Ragaz         Bruges                Dossenheim          Gebenstorf       Herbrechtingen         Kobe                 London               Montgomery_County Oberuster               Regina            Schallstadt        Tierp              Wetter
Bad_Sackingen     Brugg                 Dresden             Gegraveneve      Herdecke               København            London_(Ont.)        Monthey              Oberwil              Rehetobel         Schiedam           Tilburg            Wettingen
Bad_Schwartau     Brugg_Weiermatt       Driebergen          Geldrop          Herisau                Koblenz              Londonderry          Montpelier           Obfelden             Reichenbach       Schiedam           Titisee-Neustadt   Wetzikon
Bad_Vilbel        Brugge                Dubendorf           Gelsenkirchen    Herning                Koln                 Londres              Montreal             Odense               Reinach           Schiers            Tofino             Wetzlar
Baden             Brummen               Dublin              Gelterkinden     Herrenberg             Köniz                Long_Beach,          Montreux             Odijk                Renens            Schliern           Tokyo              Wezep
Baden/Wien        Brussels              Dudingen            Genève           Herrliberg-Feldmeile   Konolfingen          Longueuil            Morges               Oegstgeest           Reussbuhl         Schofflisdorf      Topsham            Whistler
Baltimore         Bubikon               Dübendorf           Genova           Herzogenbuchsee        Konstanz             Lorrach              Mosbach              Offenbach            Reutlingen        Schoftland         Torino             Wiener_Neustadt
Barcelona         Buchholz              Düdingen            Gent             Heuchelheim            Köping               Los_Angeles          Mössingen            Oftringen            Rheinfelden       Schonenwerd        Tornesch           Wiesbaden
Baretswil         Buchs                 Duisburg            Gevelsberg       High Wycombe           Korneuburg           Lostorf              Motala               Oldenburg            Rhein-Neckar      Schopfheim         Toronto            Wiesendangen
Basel             Buckfastleigh         Duren               Ghent            Hildesheim             Kortrijk             Louvain_la_Neuve     Mountain_View        Olten                Rhenen            Schupfen           Toulouse           Wiesloch
Bassersdorf       Bulach                Durham              Gieszlig;en      Hillegom               Krefeld              Lubeck               Mühlethurnen         Ooij                 Richmond          Schwabisch_Hall    Traverse_City      Wijchen
Bath              Bunnik                Durnten             Gipf-Oberfrick   Hilversum              Kreuzlingen          Lucerne              Mülheim              Oosterhout gld       Richterswil       Schwarzenburg      Trèves             Wijk bij duurstede
Bauma             Bunschoten            Dusseldorf          Gisikon          Hinwil                 Kriens               Ludenscheid          Münchenbuchsee Opfikon                    Riehen            Schwechat          Trimbach           Will
Bayreuth          Buochs                East_Bay            Giswil           Hiroshima              Kristiansstad        Ludwigsburg          Münchenstein         Örebro               Rifferswil        Schweinfurt        Trondheim          Willisau
Belfast           Burgdorf              EastSide            Gland            Hisingens              Kufstein             Ludwigshafen         Münsingen            Osaka                Rijnsburg         Schwerin           Trubach            Winchester
Bellevue          Bussum                Ebikon              Glaris           Hitzkirch              Kusnacht             Lübeck               Münster              Oslo                 Rijswijk zh       Schwerzenbach      Tübingen           Winterthur
Bellingham        Calgary               Ebnat-Kappel        Gleisdorf        Hoboken                Kyoto                Lüdenscheid          Mulheim/Ruhr         Osnarbruck           Rikon             Schwetzingen       Turbenthal-Wila    Witten
Bellinzona        Camberley             Ecublens            Gléresse         Hochdorf               La_Chaux-de-Fonds    Lüneburg             Munchenbuchsee Ossingen                   Rimini            Schwyz             Turgi              Wittenbach
Belp              Cambridge_(UK)        Ede                 Goldach          Hofheim                La_Rochelle          Lugano               Munchsteinach        Österfärnebo         Rodersdorf        Seattle            Ulm                Wittenberg
Bennekom          Cambridge_(USA) Edinburgh                 Gorinchem        Hofstetten-Flüh        La_Tour-de-Peilz     Luleå                Munich               Ostermundigen        Rodovre           Seeheim-           Umeå               Witzenhausen

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                                                                                                                                              Munsingen
                                                                                                                                              Munster
                                                                                                                                              Muri
                                                                                                                                              Muri-Gumligen
                                                                                                                                                                   Östersund
                                                                                                                                                                   Ostfildern
                                                                                                                                                                   Ottawa
                                                                                                                                                                   Ottenbach
                                                                                                                                                                                        Roermond
                                                                                                                                                                                        Roggwil
                                                                                                                                                                                        Rohr
                                                                                                                                                                                        Romanshorn
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jugenheim
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Seelze
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sempach
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sheffield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Umkirch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Unna
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Uppsala
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Urdorf
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Woerden
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Wognum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Wolfenbuttel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Wolfurt
Bergsjöns         Celle                 Einsiedeln          Göttingen        Hoorn                  Landskrona           Luzern               Muttenz              Ottignies            Rombach           Sherbrooke         Uster              Wolhusen

HAVE CARSHARING PROGRAMS
Berikon
Berkeley
Berlin
Bermgarten
                  Chaddleworth
                  Chagford
                  Cham
                  Chamvery
                                        Elgg
                                        Elmshorn
                                        Elst (utr.)
                                        Emmen
                                                            Gouda
                                                            Gouda
                                                            Grabs
                                                            Grafelfing
                                                                             Horgen
                                                                             Hørsholm
                                                                             Horw
                                                                             Houten
                                                                                                    Landsmeer
                                                                                                    Langen
                                                                                                    Langendorf
                                                                                                    Langenfeld
                                                                                                                         Lyon
                                                                                                                         Lyss
                                                                                                                         Maarssen
                                                                                                                         Maastricht
                                                                                                                                              Nacka
                                                                                                                                              Nagold
                                                                                                                                              Namur
                                                                                                                                              Nanaimo_(BC)
                                                                                                                                                                   Overijssel
                                                                                                                                                                   Oxford
                                                                                                                                                                   Palo_Alto
                                                                                                                                                                   Pansdorf
                                                                                                                                                                                        Rome
                                                                                                                                                                                        Roosendaal
                                                                                                                                                                                        Rorschach
                                                                                                                                                                                        Rorschacherberg
                                                                                                                                                                                                          'S-hertogenbosch
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Siegburg
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Siegen
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sindelfingen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Utrecht
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Uznach
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Uzwil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Valby
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Worb
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Worcester
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Worms
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Wunstorf
Bern              Chappel_Hill          Emmenbrücke         Granges          Hove                   Langenhagen          Machynlleth          Nanikon              Paris                Rosenheim         Singapore          Vancouver          Wuppertal
Berne             Checircne-Bourg       Enkhuizen           Granollers       Huckelhoven            Langenthal           Madison              Nantes               Passau               Roskilde          Sion               Vancouver_Island   Wurtzbourg
Beromunster       Chester-le-street     Enschede            Graz             Huddersfield           Langnau              Madrid               Narbonne             Perth                Rosmalen          Sissach            Vänersborg         Yeovil
Berthoud          Chicago               Enzingen            Greenbelt        Huizen                 Laufen               Magdeburg            Neckargmünd          Petit-Lancy          Rostock           Sittard            Vantaa             Yokohama
Biberach          Chiètres              Eppstein            Grenchen         Ibbenbüren             Laufenburg           Magden               Neuchacirctel        Pfaffikon            Rothenburg        Soest              Varberg            York
THE POST-CAR TRANSPORT SYSTEM
Source: Kingsley Denis and John
Urry

 New fuel systems & new materials

 Smart vehicles & ICT integration

 De-privatizing vehicles

 Economies of access rather than
 ownership
 e.g. online music and film

 New transport policies
 Demand management, pay as you go
Driverless taxi concept
(Mike & Maaike, 2012).
Path-breaking Transport Systems

         Old and New Solutions, Distinct Geographies
         Older solutions renaissance (BRT, cycling, car sharing) and potential for
         radically new transport modes. Significant innovation and adoption in the
         newly industrialising world- China, Brazil etc.

         Success and Failure
         Key aspects of success- flexibility, affordability, incremental development,
         political support. Explains limited realisation of congestion pricing.

         Post-Car Innovation
         New generation of ICT enabled car sharing introducing aspects of post-
         car vision. Alternative route to introducing congestion pricing principles.

         Driverless cars still face significant hurdles (e.g. legal), but pose
         fundamental medium term challenges to core aspects of urban transport
         (e.g. parking, transport employment, derived demand, buses, taxis).
Conclusions

         Uncertainty and Disruption in Transportation Systems
         Core demand modelling assumptions that travel will increase in
         line with income may no longer apply. Critical opportunity for
         changing transport systems and establishing more sustainable
         city forms and behaviours.

         Urban Form and Adaptability
         While economies highly dynamic, the fundamental rationale of
         cities to enable face-to-face contact and communication with
         good quality of life unchanged. Medium and high density cities
         associated with lower transport energy use and arguably better
         adapted to current era of city growth.

         ICT and Travel Behaviour
         Social networking affecting travel demand, linked to changing
         attitudes to car ownership and also fundamental aspect of new
         transport innovations (smart cards, sharing). Lots of new data for
         modelling, great challenge in understanding ICT and travel
         integration and substitution.
LSE CITIES CURRENT RESEARCH

     Berlin and London New Urban Mobility Survey
     Project partner InnoZ. Investigating transport attitudes
     and lifestyles in relation to urban travel innovations of
     sharing, ICT and active travel. Report to be published in
     July 2013.

     Going Green Report
     Global survey of over 100 cities on the transition to the
     green economy, plus case studies on land use planning,
     energy, waste and electric mobility:
     lsecities.net/publications/reports/

     Electric City Conference
     Major international conference held in December 2012
     on future world cities, sustainability and technology.
     lsecities.net/publications/conference-newspapers/
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