FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH - Perspectives from Urban Studies - Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung
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FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH Perspectives from Urban Studies Praxisforum Verkehrsforschung Berlin, May 2013 Duncan Smith, LSE Cities / Urban Age Programme London School of Economics and Political Science
Challenges of Prediction & Peak Travel Cities, Innovation and Urban Form Lock-in and Adaptability Path-breaking Transport Innovations
Challenges of Prediction & Peak Travel Cities, Innovation and Urban Form Lock-in and Adaptability Path-breaking Transport Innovations
MOTORISATION IN WEST GERMANY- FORECAST VS ACTUAL Source: Schuehle 1986, Heinze/Kill 2000 Motorisation (vehicles in millions) 45 23 1 Zimmermann 1955 25 2 Zimmermann 1959 40 3 Schimtz/Gerhard 1957 22 4 Esso 1958 24 5 Shell 1959 35 6 Shell 1961 16 21 7 Shell 1969 8 Shell 1971 20 19 9 Shell 1973 30 18 10 Shell 1977 17 11 Lenk 1962 10 12 Lehberg 1962 25 11 13 Lehberg halblog 9 14 Frerich/Sarrazin 1973 15 14 15 DIW 1977 20 8 16 DIW 1989 6 17 Shell 1979 7 18 Shell 1981 19 Shell 1985 15 20 Shell 1987 12 21 Shell 1989 13 5 22 Shell 1991 10 23 Umweltbundesamt 1990 24 ITP/IVT 1991 4 2 25 DIW 1994 (ABL) 3 5 1 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
TOTAL MOTORIZED TRAVEL ACTIVITY 1970-2007/8 - PEAK TRAVEL? Source: Millard-Ball and Schipper 2011, includes domestic air travel
WHY MIGHT PEAK TRAVEL BE OCCURRING? Economic- Significant fuel price increases and squeezed incomes across many population groups, exacerbated by major recession. Travel Time Saturation- Given 1 hour daily travel budget (Zahavi, 1980; Marchetti, 1994), reached mobility saturation with sufficient choice for most common journeys. Diminishing utility of further travel (Metz, 2010). Land-use Planning- Restricted road building and urban regeneration boosted local accessibility and brought new equilibrium in land-use transport systems (Newman & Kenworthy, 2011; Lucas & Jones, 2009). Car Ownership Attitudes- Car as major consumer status symbol challenged in younger demographics (Urry, 2009), declining licenses and use. New flexible economies of access and ownership emerging. Internet and Social Networking- Increasing ability to socialise and shop online, with great choice and convenience. Potentially will reduce trips. Demographics and Migration- More globalised networks of social connections, more students, more leisure time, more elderly groups. Some regional travel replaced by international flights.
PEAK TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS Income and Mobility- Core modelling assumptions about increased mobility and travel with rising income fundamentally challenged. Travel Sustainability Opportunities- New lifestyles and cultures being forged. Ideal opportunity for more sustainable transport systems and behaviours to be realised. Not all positive, e.g. global air travel. ICT & Travel- ICT seems to be radically changing travel demand for certain trips. Substitution but also connected while travelling. Developing World Many aspects of peak travel trends not applicable in Newly Industrialising Countries, where car use expanding rapidly. Yet also signs of significant public transport innovations from NICs.
Challenges of Prediction & Peak Travel Cities, Innovation and Urban Form Lock-in and Adaptability Path-breaking Transport Innovations
2% of the earth’s surface is urbanised 53% of the world’s population is urban
Cities exist to eliminate transport costs for people, goods and ideas. Ed Glaeser
CITY FORM URBAN TRANSPORT
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION Innovation 2nd wave 1st wave Steam & Industrial Railways Iron Steel Water power Cotton Mechanisation Telegraph Textiles Commerce 1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION Innovation 2nd wave 1st wave Steam & Industrial Railways Iron Steel Water power Cotton Mechanisation Telegraph Textiles Commerce 1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION Innovation 3rd wave 2nd wave 1st wave Electricity & Steam & Steel Industrial Railways Heavy Iron Steel Engineering Water power Cotton Chemicals Mechanisation Telegraph Telephone Textiles Skyscraper Commerce 1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION Innovation 3rd wave 2nd wave 1st wave Electricity & Steam & Steel Industrial Railways Heavy Iron Steel Engineering Water power Cotton Chemicals Mechanisation Telegraph Telephone Textiles Skyscraper Commerce 1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION 4th wave Innovation 3rd wave 2nd wave 1st wave Oil & Electricity & Automobiles Steam & Steel Petrochemicals Industrial Railways Heavy Electronics Iron Steel Engineering Aviation Water power Cotton Chemicals Television Mechanisation Telegraph Telephone Textiles Skyscraper Commerce 1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION 4th wave Innovation 3rd wave 2nd wave 1st wave Oil & Electricity & Automobiles Steam & Steel Petrochemicals Industrial Railways Heavy Electronics Iron Steel Engineering Aviation Water power Cotton Chemicals Television Mechanisation Telegraph Telephone Textiles Skyscraper Commerce 1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION 5th wave 4th wave Innovation 3rd wave 2nd wave Information & 1st wave Oil & Telecom Electricity & Automobiles Digital networks Steam & Steel Petrochemicals Information Industrial Heavy Electronics Technology Railways Biotechnology Iron Steel Engineering Aviation Water power Cotton Chemicals Television Mechanisation Telegraph Telephone Textiles Radio Commerce 1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020
CORE VS BELT GROWTH 1995-2008 – SELECTED OECD METROS Source: OCED 2011 -1% 0 1%
WAVES OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION 6th wave Cleantech & 5th wave Efficiency? Post-car? 4th wave Industrial Ecology? Distributed Manufacturing? Innovation 3rd wave Artificial Intelligence? 2nd wave Information & 1st wave Oil & Telecom Electricity & Automobiles Digital networks Steam & Steel Petrochemicals Information Industrial Heavy Electronics Technology Railways Biotechnology Iron Steel Engineering Aviation Water power Cotton Chemicals Television Mechanisation Telegraph Telephone Textiles Skyscraper Commerce 1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020
BARCELONA VS ATLANTA Source: Bertaud and Richardson, 2004 Atlanta Barcelona
URBAN DENSITY NEW YORK SHANGHAI MUMBAI SÃO PAULO ISTANBUL LONDON
Challenges of Prediction & Peak Travel Cities, Innovation and Urban Form Lock-in and Adaptability Path-breaking Transport Innovations
EUROPE: 95 PER CENT OF 2030 URBAN STRUCTURES EXISTS TODAY
TYPICAL DESIGN LIFE OF URBAN STRUCTURES – PHYSICAL LOCK-INS Roads 20 to 30 years Highways 20 to 50 years Stadium 20 to 40 years Water infrastructure 20 to 40 years Sewage system 30 to 70 years Apartment buildings 40 to 70 years Office Building 40 to 50 years Railway infrastructure 50 to 60 years Telephone cables 30 to 40 years Airports 40 to 100 years Bridges 50 to 100 years Tunnel structures 50 to 100 years
COPENHAGEN ‘FINGER PLAN’
URBAN DYNAMICS AND CONTINUITY Creative Destruction- City economies in constant flux with phases of growth linked to new technologies. Fundamentally shape city form during different eras, wide diversity of urban forms. Physical Lock-In Economic dynamism in contrast to fixed, enduring nature of the built- environment. Infrastructure locks-in behaviours and patterns of resource use. Adaptability and Resilience Challenge therefore to enable sustainable cities that are efficient and flexible to accommodate new technologies and industries. Accessible for range of transport modes, and enable new forms of communication and travel. What are the Current Transport Innovations Shaping World Cities?
Challenges of Prediction & Peak Travel Cities, Innovation and Urban Form Lock-in and Adaptability Path-breaking Transport Innovations
BUS RAPID TRANSIT
BUS RAPID TRANSIT WORLDWIDE Map by LSE Cities, Data: Global BRT, 2013
BUS RAPID TRANSIT WORLDWIDE Map by LSE Cities, Data: Global BRT, 2013
BIKE SHARING
BUS RAPID BIKE SHARETRANSIT SCHEMESWORLDWIDE WORLDWIDE Map by LSE Cities. Data source: O’Brien 2012
BUS RAPID BIKE SHARETRANSIT SCHEMESWORLDWIDE WORLDWIDE Map by LSE Cities. Data source: O’Brien 2012
Number of trips to-from inner city Relative change in bicycle on weekdays by bicycle use (2001=100%) (Thousands) 80 120 160 200 50 100 150 1990 1990 2000 2000 URBAN CYCLING TRENDS Berlin Copenhagen 0 201 2010 Number of trips to central London during NYC Commuter cycle morning peak by bicycle (Thousands) indicator 10 20 100 200 300 1990 1990 2000 2000 London New York 0 2010 201
CONGESTION PRICING
LONDON CAR USE DECLINE Zero Car Households London All Traffic, Total Vehicle km 60 2001 50 2011 40 Households % 30 20 10 0 All London Inner London Outer London
CONGESTION PRICING WORLDWIDE
CONGESTION PRICING WORLDWIDE
Aachen Biel Chur Erfurt Grenoble Iéna Laufon Maidstone Neuchâtel Pforzheim Rothrist Solothurn Varik Yverdon Aalsmeer Bielefeld Clermont-Ferrand Erlangen Grenoble Ilanz Lausanne Mainz Neuenhof Pfullingen Rotkreuz South_Brent Västerås Zaandam Aarau Bienne Cleveland Erstfeld Greven Illnau Lausen Majornas Neuhausen Philadelphia Rottenburg Southampton Vaxholm Zagreb Aarhus Bilthoven Coburg Esbjerg Greyrock_Commons Ingolstadt Le Locle Malmö Neuss Pieterlen Rotterdam Speyer Växjö Zaltbommel CAR SHARING Abcoude Adiswil Adligenswil Binningen Birmingham Birsfelden Colbe Colchester Colne_Valley Eskilstuna Espoo Essen Groningen Grootebroek Grut Innsbruck Interlaken Ipsach Leeds Leeuwarden Lehrte Malters Manchester Mannedorf Neu-Ulm New York City Newcastle Pittsburgh Plannegg Plochingen Rotterdam Rubigen Rudolfstetten Spiez Spijkenisse St._Gallen Veenendaal Veldhoven Veltheim Zeist Zevenaar Zoetermeer Aesch Bludenz Copenhagen Esslingen Gstaad Irvine Leicester Mannheim Newtown Poitiers Rümlang St._Pölten Venis Zoeterwoude-dorp Affoltern/A. Boblingen Corburg Ettlingen Guelph Iserlohn Leicester_Woodgate Marburg Nice Poole Rüschlikon St_Albans Venlo Zoeterwoude-rijndijk Alexandria. Bochum Cothen Eugene Gümligen Ithica Leiden Marl Nidau Porrentruy Rüti St_Austell Vevey Zofingen Alkmaar Boden Cottbus Eutin Guildford Ittigen Leiderdorp Marly Niederbipp Portland Rumlang Stade Victoria Zollikerberg Allschwil Bologna Cranfield Exeter Haarlem Jegenstorf Leipzig Marseilles Niedererlinsbach Portsmouth Ruschlikon Stafa Vienna Zollikofen Almere Bolzano/Bozen Culemborg Fairfax_County Hagen Jena Lelystad Marthalen Niederglatt Potsdam Russelsheim Stans Viernheim Zuchwil Alpnach Bonn Dachau Falkenberg Halberstadt Jona Lelystad Martigny Niederhasli Pratteln Ruswil Stansstad Villach Zug Altdorf Bonstetten Dancing Rabbit Fallanden Halifax Jönköping Lent Mastricht Niederlenz Preetz Rutledge Starrkirch-Will Vinterviken Zurich Altstatten Borås Darmstadt Falun Halle Jylland Lenzburg Maur Niederrohrdorf Prilly Sgraveland Stavanger Viskafors Zutphen Amersfoort Bordeaux Davos Farum Halmstad Kaarst Leusden Maurik Niederscherli Prince Georges Sgravenhage Steffisburg Vlaardingen Zweisimmen Amriswil Bordesholm De bilt Faulensee Hamburg Kalmar Leuven Mayence Niederweningen County Saarbrucken Steinbach Volketswil Zwijndrecht Amstelveen Borlänge Degersheim Feldkirch Hameln Kapfenberg Leverkusen Mechelen Nieuwegein Princeton Sabadell Steinen Voorburg Zwischenwasser Amsterdam Boston Delémont Fellbach Hanau Karlsruhe Lewes Meggen Nieuwerkerk ijssel Puch/Hallein Sachseln Steinhausen Voorhout Zwolle Amsterdam_Zuid Bottmingen Delft Filderstadt Hannover Karlstad Lichfield Meiringen Nijmegen Puchheim Saint_Paul Steyr Vught Amstetten Boulder Delft Flawil Harderwijk Kassel Lichtensteig Melbourne Nimes Pully SaintQuentin Stockholm Wabern Andelfingen Bovenkarspel Delfzijl Florence Haren Katwijk Liège Memmingen Noordwijk Purmerend Sala Strasburg Wadenswil Andermatt Bozen Den_Bosch Fort_Collins Hasle Kehrsatz Lienden Mendrisio Noordwijkerhout Québec Salisbury Stroud Wageningen Ann_Arbor Bradford-on-Avon Den_Haag Fort_Wayne Hasselt Kempten Liestal Menzingen Norwich Quebec_City Salzburg Stutensee Waiblingen Antwerp Braunschweig Denver Frankfurt/M Hausen_am_Albis Kesgrave Ligerz/Twann Merseburg Nottuln Radolfzell Samedan Stuttgart Wald Apeldoorn Breda Dessau Frauenfeld Hebden_Bridge Kiel Lignon Merzhausen Nürnberg Rafz San_Diego Süßen Wallisellen Appenzell Breda Detroit Freising Hedingen Kingston Lilienthal Mettmenstetten Nussbaumen Rankwell San_Francisco Suhr Waltrop Arbon Bregenz Deventer Frenkendorf Heemstede Kirchberg Lille Meyrin Nyon Rannebergens Sant_Cugat Sundbyberg Warnsveld Arlington Bremen Dielsdorf Fribourg Heerbrugg Kirchheim Limerick Middelburg Oakland Rapperswil Santa_Barbara Sundsvall Washington_DC Arnhem Bremerhaven Diemen Frick Heerlen Kirchheim/Teck Lindau Milan Oberägeri Ratekau Santa_Monica Sursee Wattenscheid Arnstadt Bremgarten Dietikon Frutigen Heidelberg Kirchlindach Linköping Minden Oberdiessbach Ratisbonne Santpoort noord Suszligen Wattwil Arth-Goldau Brig Dinant Fukuoka Heiden Kirchzarten Linz Minneapolis/St._Paul Oberdorf/Stans Ratzeburg Sapporo Swansea Weert Ashburton Brighton Doetinchem Furth Heidenheim Kitakyushu Lisse Mittelhäusen Oberentfelden Ravensburg Sargans Sydney Weesp Aspen Brighton_&_Hove Domat/Ems Gainesville Heiloo Kitchener-Waterloo Littau Modena Oberglatt Reading Sarnen Therwil Weinfelden Assen Brigue Dordrecht Gallaway Heimenschwand Kitsap_County Liverpool Mödling Oberhausen Rebstein Sarrebruck Thun Weingarten Atlanta Brisbane Dornach Garching Helsingborg Klagenfurt Llanidoes Mohlin Oberkirch Redmond Saskatoon Thusis Weinheim Baar Bristol Dornach-Arlesheim Gatineau Helsinki Klosters Locarno Mölndal Oberlunkhofen Refrath Sassenheim Thyholm Weiz Bad_Gleichenberg Brønshøj Dornbirn Gauting Hemsbach Kloten Lochem Mönchaltorf Oberrieden Regensburg Schaffhausen Tibro Wels Bad_Homburg Brookline Dortmund Gävle Hengelo Knonau Lohmar Mons Oberursel Regensdorf Schalkwijk Tiel Wettenberg Bad_Ragaz Bruges Dossenheim Gebenstorf Herbrechtingen Kobe London Montgomery_County Oberuster Regina Schallstadt Tierp Wetter Bad_Sackingen Brugg Dresden Gegraveneve Herdecke København London_(Ont.) Monthey Oberwil Rehetobel Schiedam Tilburg Wettingen Bad_Schwartau Brugg_Weiermatt Driebergen Geldrop Herisau Koblenz Londonderry Montpelier Obfelden Reichenbach Schiedam Titisee-Neustadt Wetzikon Bad_Vilbel Brugge Dubendorf Gelsenkirchen Herning Koln Londres Montreal Odense Reinach Schiers Tofino Wetzlar Baden Brummen Dublin Gelterkinden Herrenberg Köniz Long_Beach, Montreux Odijk Renens Schliern Tokyo Wezep Baden/Wien Brussels Dudingen Genève Herrliberg-Feldmeile Konolfingen Longueuil Morges Oegstgeest Reussbuhl Schofflisdorf Topsham Whistler Baltimore Bubikon Dübendorf Genova Herzogenbuchsee Konstanz Lorrach Mosbach Offenbach Reutlingen Schoftland Torino Wiener_Neustadt Barcelona Buchholz Düdingen Gent Heuchelheim Köping Los_Angeles Mössingen Oftringen Rheinfelden Schonenwerd Tornesch Wiesbaden Baretswil Buchs Duisburg Gevelsberg High Wycombe Korneuburg Lostorf Motala Oldenburg Rhein-Neckar Schopfheim Toronto Wiesendangen Basel Buckfastleigh Duren Ghent Hildesheim Kortrijk Louvain_la_Neuve Mountain_View Olten Rhenen Schupfen Toulouse Wiesloch Bassersdorf Bulach Durham Gieszlig;en Hillegom Krefeld Lubeck Mühlethurnen Ooij Richmond Schwabisch_Hall Traverse_City Wijchen Bath Bunnik Durnten Gipf-Oberfrick Hilversum Kreuzlingen Lucerne Mülheim Oosterhout gld Richterswil Schwarzenburg Trèves Wijk bij duurstede Bauma Bunschoten Dusseldorf Gisikon Hinwil Kriens Ludenscheid Münchenbuchsee Opfikon Riehen Schwechat Trimbach Will Bayreuth Buochs East_Bay Giswil Hiroshima Kristiansstad Ludwigsburg Münchenstein Örebro Rifferswil Schweinfurt Trondheim Willisau Belfast Burgdorf EastSide Gland Hisingens Kufstein Ludwigshafen Münsingen Osaka Rijnsburg Schwerin Trubach Winchester Bellevue Bussum Ebikon Glaris Hitzkirch Kusnacht Lübeck Münster Oslo Rijswijk zh Schwerzenbach Tübingen Winterthur Bellingham Calgary Ebnat-Kappel Gleisdorf Hoboken Kyoto Lüdenscheid Mulheim/Ruhr Osnarbruck Rikon Schwetzingen Turbenthal-Wila Witten Bellinzona Camberley Ecublens Gléresse Hochdorf La_Chaux-de-Fonds Lüneburg Munchenbuchsee Ossingen Rimini Schwyz Turgi Wittenbach Belp Cambridge_(UK) Ede Goldach Hofheim La_Rochelle Lugano Munchsteinach Österfärnebo Rodersdorf Seattle Ulm Wittenberg Bennekom Cambridge_(USA) Edinburgh Gorinchem Hofstetten-Flüh La_Tour-de-Peilz Luleå Munich Ostermundigen Rodovre Seeheim- Umeå Witzenhausen MORE THAN 1,000 CITIES CURRENTLY Bentham Bergdietikon Bergen Capelle aan den ijsselEdmonton Carouge Castricum Bergisch_Gladbach Castrop-Rauxel Effretikon Eglisau Eindhoven Gorssel Gossau Gossau_SG Gothenborg Hohenem Holzwickede Hombrechtikon Hoogkarspel Laatzen Lachen Landquart Landshut Lund Luneburg Lupfig Lustenau Munsingen Munster Muri Muri-Gumligen Östersund Ostfildern Ottawa Ottenbach Roermond Roggwil Rohr Romanshorn Jugenheim Seelze Sempach Sheffield Umkirch Unna Uppsala Urdorf Woerden Wognum Wolfenbuttel Wolfurt Bergsjöns Celle Einsiedeln Göttingen Hoorn Landskrona Luzern Muttenz Ottignies Rombach Sherbrooke Uster Wolhusen HAVE CARSHARING PROGRAMS Berikon Berkeley Berlin Bermgarten Chaddleworth Chagford Cham Chamvery Elgg Elmshorn Elst (utr.) Emmen Gouda Gouda Grabs Grafelfing Horgen Hørsholm Horw Houten Landsmeer Langen Langendorf Langenfeld Lyon Lyss Maarssen Maastricht Nacka Nagold Namur Nanaimo_(BC) Overijssel Oxford Palo_Alto Pansdorf Rome Roosendaal Rorschach Rorschacherberg 'S-hertogenbosch Siegburg Siegen Sindelfingen Utrecht Uznach Uzwil Valby Worb Worcester Worms Wunstorf Bern Chappel_Hill Emmenbrücke Granges Hove Langenhagen Machynlleth Nanikon Paris Rosenheim Singapore Vancouver Wuppertal Berne Checircne-Bourg Enkhuizen Granollers Huckelhoven Langenthal Madison Nantes Passau Roskilde Sion Vancouver_Island Wurtzbourg Beromunster Chester-le-street Enschede Graz Huddersfield Langnau Madrid Narbonne Perth Rosmalen Sissach Vänersborg Yeovil Berthoud Chicago Enzingen Greenbelt Huizen Laufen Magdeburg Neckargmünd Petit-Lancy Rostock Sittard Vantaa Yokohama Biberach Chiètres Eppstein Grenchen Ibbenbüren Laufenburg Magden Neuchacirctel Pfaffikon Rothenburg Soest Varberg York
THE POST-CAR TRANSPORT SYSTEM Source: Kingsley Denis and John Urry New fuel systems & new materials Smart vehicles & ICT integration De-privatizing vehicles Economies of access rather than ownership e.g. online music and film New transport policies Demand management, pay as you go
Driverless taxi concept (Mike & Maaike, 2012).
Path-breaking Transport Systems Old and New Solutions, Distinct Geographies Older solutions renaissance (BRT, cycling, car sharing) and potential for radically new transport modes. Significant innovation and adoption in the newly industrialising world- China, Brazil etc. Success and Failure Key aspects of success- flexibility, affordability, incremental development, political support. Explains limited realisation of congestion pricing. Post-Car Innovation New generation of ICT enabled car sharing introducing aspects of post- car vision. Alternative route to introducing congestion pricing principles. Driverless cars still face significant hurdles (e.g. legal), but pose fundamental medium term challenges to core aspects of urban transport (e.g. parking, transport employment, derived demand, buses, taxis).
Conclusions Uncertainty and Disruption in Transportation Systems Core demand modelling assumptions that travel will increase in line with income may no longer apply. Critical opportunity for changing transport systems and establishing more sustainable city forms and behaviours. Urban Form and Adaptability While economies highly dynamic, the fundamental rationale of cities to enable face-to-face contact and communication with good quality of life unchanged. Medium and high density cities associated with lower transport energy use and arguably better adapted to current era of city growth. ICT and Travel Behaviour Social networking affecting travel demand, linked to changing attitudes to car ownership and also fundamental aspect of new transport innovations (smart cards, sharing). Lots of new data for modelling, great challenge in understanding ICT and travel integration and substitution.
LSE CITIES CURRENT RESEARCH Berlin and London New Urban Mobility Survey Project partner InnoZ. Investigating transport attitudes and lifestyles in relation to urban travel innovations of sharing, ICT and active travel. Report to be published in July 2013. Going Green Report Global survey of over 100 cities on the transition to the green economy, plus case studies on land use planning, energy, waste and electric mobility: lsecities.net/publications/reports/ Electric City Conference Major international conference held in December 2012 on future world cities, sustainability and technology. lsecities.net/publications/conference-newspapers/
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