FULL-YEAR SURVEY RESULTS 2018 - Freeman Media

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FULL-YEAR SURVEY RESULTS 2018 - Freeman Media
SURVEY REPORT 2017

                         F U L L- Y E A R S U R V E Y R E S U LT S 2 0 1 8

  ENERGY NEWS
  www.energynews.co.nz
FULL-YEAR SURVEY RESULTS 2018 - Freeman Media
Introduction
Energy News and ABB are delighted to announce the full-                  A breakdown of respondents by organisation type is available on
year results of the New Zealand Electricity Survey 2018. This            page 27. This year respondents included consultants, distributors and
document contains results from three of our quarterly surveys            gentailers. The survey questions and range of responses were guided
that have already been released, and results from the fourth and         by an advisory panel chaired by John Hancock. The panel members
final instalment – focusing on technology and data.                      are listed on page 3 and we would like to thank them for their input.

The survey, now in its seventh year, had a face-lift in 2018. We moved   Please email any feedback to kate.barker@freemanmedia.co.nz. We
from an annual instalment to four shorter quarterly surveys.             welcome any and all suggestions for questions, themes and responses
                                                                         for 2019.
This allowed us to ask the electricity sector thought-provoking
questions and gauge its response throughout the year as different        Kate Barker – Research Analyst
announcements were made and new policy signalled.                        Freeman (publisher of Energy News)

Thank you to everyone who took the time to complete the surveys
                                                                         About ABB
each quarter – we received almost 1,000 responses in total.
                                                                         ABB (ABBN: SIX Swiss Ex) is a pioneering technology leader in
During the year we polled the sector on everything from generation       electrification products, robotics and motion, industrial automation
plant to electric vehicles, new Government policy directions to the      and power grids, serving customers in utilities, industry and transport
importance of cyber security.                                            & infrastructure globally. Continuing a history of innovation spanning
We brought back a feature for the third year running where we asked      more than 130 years, ABB today is writing the future of industrial
the industry when they expected to see different milestones achieved.    digitalisation with two clear value propositions: bringing electricity
Notable changes from last year’s answers include:                        from any power plant to any plug and automating industries from
                                                                         natural resources to finished products. As title partner of Formula E,
• The sector doesn’t expect to see a single solar asset larger than 5
                                                                         the fully electric international FIA motorsport class, ABB is pushing
  MW until 2024, three years later than responses showed last year
                                                                         the boundaries of e-mobility to contribute to a sustainable future. ABB
• Respondents also pushed out the next network amalgamation to           operates in more than 100 countries with about 135,000 employees.
  2022, after thinking it was just around the corner in 2017             www.abb.com

• Everyone underestimated the rapid growth in electric vehicle
                                                                         About Energy News
  ownership. Most respondents thought we wouldn’t see 10,000
                                                                         Energy News is New Zealand’s online news and information service for
  EVs in this country until 2020, but that milestone was reached in
                                                                         the energy sector. The website (www.energynews.co.nz) was launched
  September
                                                                         in 2008 and now boasts more than 5,000 readers every month from
Responses to other questions throughout the year ranged from equal       300 subscribing organisations. Its readership consists of New Zealand
views on all options to heavily supporting a particular direction.       energy sector organisations and service companies spanning the
A majority of the respondents – 62% - felt that after a year of being    electricity, oil and gas, petroleum and alternative energy value chain.
in power, the Labour Government was generally heading in the right       The subscription-based site provides daily news, executive interviews,
direction when it came to energy policy.                                 opinion and commentary. It also hosts a suite of information resources
However, when asked specifically about the offshore oil and gas ban      including two large databases of sector participants and energy
announced in April, 40% thought it was a lose-lose situation, while      resources. Other information tools include 30-minute electricity prices,
48% supported it.                                                        supply and demand monitoring, petroleum permit deadline summaries
                                                                         and an oil price monitor.
There were split views over which type of 50MW-plus generation asset
should be prioritised to meet the changing needs of this country’s       About Gentrack
electricity demand, although geothermal squeezed ahead of the other      Pairing deep market knowledge with essential software for essential
options for the second year running.                                     services, Gentrack currently enables over 90 of the world’s most
                                                                         progressive utilities to lower service costs, foster innovation and
Results from our latest survey show most respondents think that off-
                                                                         confidently navigate market reform.
grid or grid-edge distributed generation has already reached cost
parity for network companies in some situations. They also picked        Gentrack Velocity is a leading billing and customer engagement
data management and analytics as the highest technology-related          solution for utilities, providing a full range of proven capabilities along
priority for the sector in 2019. You can see the full report from our    with hosted and managed services options for energy networks, new
fourth quarter survey on page 4.                                         entrant energy retailers, and larger utilities in competitive markets,
                                                                         where flexibility, uniqueness and compliance are essential.
                                                                         www.gentrack.com

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FULL-YEAR SURVEY RESULTS 2018 - Freeman Media
Advisory panel
            John Hancock (Chair)                                     Andrew Renton - Transpower
            John Hancock is an independent consultant to utility     Andrew presently works in Transpower’s Grid
            companies and their suppliers. He is the independ-       Development Division. Andrew’s role involves
            ent chair of the Electricity Authority’s Wholesale       investigating and providing holistic, pragmatic and
            Advisory Group, secretariat to the NZ Smart Grid         strategic advice, on suitable and cost effective
            Forum and has chaired the advisory panel for this        transmission solutions as well as new developments
            survey since its inception in 2012.                      and technologies.

            Jenny Cameron (formerly) ERANZ                           Greg Skelton – Wellington Electricity
            Jenny Cameron joined ERANZ as its inaugural Chief        Greg has been the Chief Executive of Wellington
            Executive in February 2016.                              Electricity since April 2009. Prior to his appointment
            Ms Cameron joined ERANZ from the Brewers’ As-            as Chief Executive, Greg was the Chief Executive of
            sociation of Australia and New Zealand where she         Alpine Energy Limited and has held various senior
            held the role of Director of External Relations. Prior   management roles in the electricity industry.
            to this, Ms Cameron served as a diplomat with the
            NZ Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade including a
            posting in Tokyo, and an assignment in Manila.

            Craig Evans – Electricity Authority                      Charles Teichert – Nova Energy
            Craig is Manager Retail and Network Markets at the       Mr Teichert has been with Nova Energy since
            Electricity Authority of New Zealand. He leads the       2000 and is currently responsible for strategy
            team developing electricity market arrangements          development, key commercial arrangements,
            that deliver long-term benefits to consumers from        commodity risk management and regulatory affairs.
            the greater choice and control over their electricity    Mr Teichert began his career in the energy sector
            supply that technology is now making possible.           joining the ECNZ wholesale electricity trading team in
                                                                     1996 followed by short stints at Genesis Energy and
                                                                     Contact Energy.

            Louise Griffin – Contact Energy                          Neil Wembridge – Freeman
            Louise joined Contact in 2008 and has held roles in      Neil Wembridge is the General Manager at
            communications, regulatory affairs and as an advi-       Freeman, which sees him take responsibility for the
            sor to the CEO. These roles, coupled with her time       commercial side of the energy sector products of
            working on the Kupe Gas Project have provided her        Freeman, including all events, surveys, stakeholder
            with an in depth understanding of New Zealand’s          management and business development.
            gas and electricity sectors.

            Tony McGlennon – Gentrack                                Angus Watson – Meridian Energy
            Tony is Gentrack’s New Zealand Country Manager           Angus is the Energy Modelling Analyst within
            and has been working across the energy sector for        Meridian’s Strategy and Performance Team. This
            10+ years, delivering essential software solutions       team is responsible for monitoring and advising the
            for retailers and networks. He is actively engaged       executive team on opportunities across the electricity
            with energy utilities, spearheading all aspects of       sector, in addition to exploring different time horizons
            Gentrack’s service delivery business in NZ and the       from both an operational and strategic focus.
            Pacific.

            Ewan Morris – ABB
            Ewan Morris is the Managing Director of ABB New
            Zealand, a role he has held since March 2014. He
            has been with ABB since 1988, and has enjoyed a
            long and extensive career in the company across five
            countries including New Zealand, Australia, Sweden,
            Malaysia and Switzerland.

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FULL-YEAR SURVEY RESULTS 2018 - Freeman Media
QTR 3 - 2018

4th quarter – Technology and Data – all change please!
In response to our 4th quarter survey, the sector thought:

                                  Cost-parity                   We want
                              is here                        access
                       Off-grid and grid-edge        A centralised
                       distributed generation has   repository that
                       reached cost-parity as a     accredited third parties
                       solution for some network    can access is the best
                       applications                 way to open access for
                                                    consumption data

                         Are we secure?                     Data is king
                       Cyber security                  Data management
                       breaches are                 and analytics will be the
                       happening within the         highest priority for most
                       sector, but they are not     of the sector in 2019
                       overly common

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QTR 4 - 2018

Question 1
Demand is growing for open access to consumption data. What is the best way to make this happen? Choose one option:

                                                The existing meter provider and meter reading
                                                firms should put in the investment to roll-out
                                                this technology and then own and manage
                                                access to the data

                          A different
                          arrangement

                                                              8%

           The current                              9%
           arrangement is
           working fine - don’t
           go down the open
           access path                     9%                                                                  A centralised
                                                                                                               repository should
                                                                                             50%               be created that third
                                                                                                               parties can access
                                                                                                               after completing an
                                                                                                               accreditation process

                                                   24%

           Existing infrastructure owners should
           make the investment but customers
           should own the data and decide who
           they allow to access it

                           A centralised repository should be created that third parties can access after
                           completing an accreditation process – 50%

                           Existing infrastructure owners should make the investment but customers should own the
                           data and decide who they allow to access it – 24%

                           The current arrangement is working fine - don’t go down the open access path – 9%

                           A different arrangement – 9%

                           The existing meter provider and meter reading firms should put in the investment to roll-out
                           this technology and then own and manage access to the data – 8%

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QTR 4 - 2018

Question 2
How far away do you think off-grid or grid-edge distributed generation is from cost parity compared to a grid-supplied solution (such as
upgrading existing network assets)? Choose one option you most agree with:

                                                         We shouldn’t be thinking of non-grid connected
                                                         solutions, it decreases the value of existing system
                                                         solutions and is not efficient
                                              2 years

                            10 years                               3%
                                                            5%

                                               18%                                                                   In certain situations
                                                                                                                     - such as with some
                                                                                                                     rural customers
                                                                                                                     - off-grid options
                                                                                              53%                    are already the
                                                                                                                     more economic
                                                                                                                     choice compared
                                                                                                                     to traditional
                                                                                                                     approaches

                                                  21%

                                 5 years

                               In certain situations - such as with some rural customers - off-grid options are
                               already the more economic choice compared to traditional approaches – 53%

                               5 years – 21%

                               10 years – 18%

                               2 years – 5%

                               We shouldn’t be thinking of non-grid connected solutions, it decreases the value of
                               existing system solutions and is not efficient – 3%

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QTR 4 - 2018

Question 3
This question is brought to you in partnership with Gentrack: Digital transformation of a business can deliver huge benefits such as better
customer experience, agility and innovation. What is the biggest digital transformation challenge your organisation faces? Choose one option:

               Governance inertia -
               hesitation towards change at
               a board or executive level                                                              Access to people - finding those
                                                                                                       with the right skills or knowledge
                                                          13%                                          to achieve our goals

                                                                                        28%

       Cost - access to
       the considerable                     18%
       funds needed for the
       investment

                                                                                     21%
       Access to resources - finding                   20%                                            Out-of-date regulations hinder
       the right technologies and                                                                     or prohibit customer-driven
       systems to make a move                                                                         changes we need to make
       towards digital transformation
QTR 4 - 2018

Question 4
Have you seen evidence of cyber security breaches or attempts in the New Zealand electricity sector - other than instances picked up by the
media? Choose one option:

                                    Yes, multiple times
                                    frequently in my
                                    organisation

                                                                                                               From time to time but it’s not
                                                                                                               overly common
                                                               16%

                                                                                                37%

                                                19%
      Never - this is a bit of a
      non-issue for electricity

                                                                          28%

                                                   Not in my organisation but I hear about
                                                   frequent attempts in others

                                   From time to time but it’s not overly common – 37%

                                   Not in my organisation but I hear about frequent attempts in others – 28%

                                   Never - this is a bit of a non-issue for electricity – 19%

                                   Yes, multiple times frequently in my organisation – 16%

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QTR 4 - 2018

Question 5
Thinking ahead to 2019, which aspect of technology and data in the electricity space do you think will be of highest priority to your
organisation? Please rank the following options in order of most important to least important (rank 1 being the most important):

                                               Data management and analytics

                                                                    Energy storage

                                                                           Internet of Things
                       Option

                                                                                     Machine learning

                                                                                           Artificial intelligence

                                                                                                               Augmented reality

                                0                  1                2                3                 4                5
                                Most                                Average ranking                                  Least

                                    Data management and analytics – 0.6

                                    Energy storage – 1.8

                                    Internet of Things – 2.3

                                    Machine learning – 2.8

                                    Artificial intelligence – 3.2

                                    Augmented reality – 4.2

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QTR 1 - 2018

The first quarter survey for 2018 went live in March and quizzed the sector on whether it was in agreement or divided
on the key challenges and opportunities ahead. We had more than 350 respondents to the survey and the results were
as follows:

Timeline for change

Question 1
We’ve been tracking this since 2016, asking when all these sector milestones might actually be achieved. How much has industry opinion
changed over two years?

                     100 MW of solar in NZ

             Single solar asset over 5 MW                                                                                       2018

      New generation asset over 50 MW                                                                                           2017

                                                                                                                                2016
                    10,000 electric vehicles

   All networks with utility scale batteries

             Next network amalgamation

                                     50 retailers*

                                                    2018           2020   2022          2024          2030             Never

                                                                                 Date

             Milestone                                                    2020     2022        2024          2030       NEVER
             100 MW of solar installed?
                                                                          47%       36%        11%           4%          1%
             (68 MW as of 31 Jan 2018)

             A single solar project over 5 MW?
                                                                          12%       28%        31%           21%         8%
             (Yealands is the largest at 0.5 MW)

             A new generation asset over 50 MW?                           16%       30%        25%           21%         9%

             10,000 electric vehicles?
                                                                          76%       17%         6%           1%          0%
             (6,603 as of 31 Jan 2018)

             Every lines network with utility-scale batteries?
                                                                          3%        16%        29%           36%         15%
             (Three in 2017)

             The next distribution network company amalgamation?          28%       35%        21%           7%          8%

             50 retail brands to choose from?
                                                                          13%       23%        16%           13%         35%
             (36 as of 31 Oct 2017)

* We increased the number of retailers to 50, from 40 in 2016 and 2017. We are at 47 retail brands as at April 2018!

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QTR 1 - 2018

Ready for a review?

Question 2
The new Government has proposed a “full-scale” review of the electricity market. What’s the biggest issue that should be focused on?

                  Industry structure – the number
                  of lines companies

                                                            10%
                                                                                                            The readiness of the sector
    The low-user fixed charge                                                                               to support increasing
                                                                                                            consumer choice, including
                                                                                                            new business models that
                                               15%                                                          take advantage of new digital
                                                                                           39%              and distributed technology

                                              16%

         Cost-reflective pricing

                                                                     20%

                                                       Industry structure – separation
                                                       of retail and generation

                                    The readiness of the sector to support increasing consumer
                                    choice, including new business models that take advantage of
                                    new digital and distributed technology – 39%

                                    Industry structure – the number of lines companies – 20%

                                    Cost-reflective pricing – 16%

                                    The low-user fixed charge – 15%

                                    Industry structure – separation of retail and generation – 10%

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QTR 1 - 2018

What to build next?

Question 3
Which type of big (e.g. >50MW) generation asset should be prioritised for development over the next 10 to 20 years to best complement the
existing market?

                                                    Hydro

                     Grid-scale                                9%
                     batteries
                                                                                                                 Geothermal
                                                                                           29%
                                                14%

                                              15%
                       None

                                                                                       18%

                                                               15%

                                                                                                    Wind

                                                       Gas

                                  Geothermal, it is the best form of reliable baseload power we have – 29%

                                  Wind, it is the best form of renewable energy to complement the abundant power
                                  provided by hydro and geothermal – 18%

                                  Gas, we have plenty of it and it can provide a flexible backup to our unpredictable
                                  renewable generation portfolio – 15%

                                  None… with energy efficiency measures, and the advent of distributed energy
                                  solutions, we shouldn’t be building any new big assets going forwards – 15%

                                  Grid-scale batteries – 14%

                                  New hydro, delivers the most power at the least cost in the long run – 9%

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QTR 1 - 2018

EV support needed

Question 4
In 2017, uptake of electric vehicles exceeded targets set by the previous Government. What option will best help ensure the target of 64,000
EVs on NZ roads is met by 2021?
                                                                   Fast-track EV car share
                                                                   and TAAS firms
                                      Nothing can be done

                   Cap the fringe benefit tax
                   firms pay on EVs

      A bigger consumer marketing                                 5% 2%
      / education push                                     6%
                                                                                                                      A fully-integrated fast-
                                                     7%                                                               charging network
                                                                                               34%
           Cost-reflective
           electricity pricing
                                                8%

                                                     18%

                                                                                20%

                   Subsidise to get
                   things moving

                                                                                       We don’t need to
                                                                                       do anything

                                 A fully-integrated fast-charging network – 34%

                                 We don’t need to do anything, take-up is already tracking beyond annual targets – 20%

                                 Subsidise to get things moving (excuse the pun) – 18%

                                 Cost-reflective electricity pricing – 8%

                                 A bigger consumer marketing / education push by the electricity sector – 7%

                                 Cap the fringe benefit tax firms pay on EVs at the rate paid on fossil-fuelled cars that
                                 EVs replace – 6%

                                 Nothing can be done, we won’t meet it. There aren’t the range of new and used
                                 vehicles available at the right price levels to satisfy customer requirements – 5%

                                 Fast-track EV car share and TAAS firms, such as Mevo or Yoogo, to establish
                                 themselves around the country – 2%

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QTR 1 - 2018

Is there a best form of energy storage for New Zealand?

Question 5
Given weather dependent renewable electricity generation (such as wind and solar) will be making up more of our energy supply mix, what is
the best form of energy storage to support the system? Rank these from best to worst, with one being the best:

                                                                        Distributed storage solutions

                                                                          Increase hydro storage
                      Option

                                                                                More gas storage and peaking capacity

                                                                                   Large scale battery storage

                                                                                          Keep Huntly around on gas or coal

                                1                  2 2              3      3          4          4     5              56
                               Best                                 Average ranking                                  Worst

                                      Distributed storage solutions such as solar plus battery and increased demand
                                      response participation – 2.6

                                      Increase hydro storage (e.g. increased lake operating levels or pumped storage) – 2.7

                                      More gas storage and peaking capacity such as Ahuroa and McKee – 3.0

                                      Large scale battery storage such as the Tesla plant in South Australia – 3.2

                                      Keep Huntly around on gas or coal as it performs many valuable roles – 3.4

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QTR 1 - 2018

Decarbonisation and the electricity sector

Question 6
A Climate Commission is due to be established under the new Government. How will the electricity sector and its customers be affected by an
increased focus on decarbonisation?

                          Power prices will rise

                                                         19%                                                         The focus will shift to
                                                                                                                     emerging distributed
                                                                                                                     technologies
                                                                                                36%

                                               22%

              Security of supply
              will worsen

                                                                            23%

                                                                               It will require a review of the current
                                                                               market settings, regulatory and policy

                                   The focus will shift to emerging distributed technologies such as batteries to
                                   help manage the transition – 36%

                                   It will require a review of the current market settings, regulatory and policy, otherwise
                                   the status quo will prevail without government intervention – 23%

                                   Security of supply will worsen. Without new expensive storage options and the
                                   thermal backup we will be more exposed to running out of water in the hydro
                                   lakes – 22%

                                   Power prices will rise. The sector will need to figure out how to keep power prices
                                   steady as it decarbonises – 19%

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QTR 2 - 2018

In June the second quarter survey focused on whether the electricity sector is ‘all about the people’, or something
else. More than 300 people completed the survey to provide us with the following results:

It is the people

Question 1
What is the largest ‘people’ challenge facing the sector right now? Rank the options in order of largest to smallest, with one being the largest
problem:

                                                                  Difficult to find the right people for the existing
                                                                  and changing roles

                                                                                 We are not investing in our current workforce with
                                                                                 training and reskilling
                          Option

                                                                                    Not keeping up with evolving customer needs
                                                                                    and social trends

                                                                                       Not recruiting enough into power sector training
                                                                                       and higher education

                                                                                              Diversity of the current workforce

                                    1                  2                     3                     4                    5
                                   Largest                           Average ranking                               Smallest
                                                                 Largest ‘people’ challenge

                                         Difficult to find the right people for the existing and changing roles – 2.3

                                         We are not investing in our current workforce with training and reskilling – 2.9

                                         Not keeping up with evolving customer needs and social trends – 3.0

                                         Not recruiting enough into power sector training and higher education – 3.2

                                         Diversity of the current workforce – 3.6

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QTR 2 - 2018

Do we have the right people?

Question 2
Which part of the sector is most lacking the skills and people needed to deliver the new and improved future electricity system. Rank these in
order of the largest skills deficit to the smallest, with one being the largest:

                                                                         Power engineers and designers

                                                                          Data analysts and digital technology experts
                       Option

                                                                             Operations and maintenance sector

                                                                                     Regulators and policy makers

                                 1                         2                           3                          4
                                Largest                          Average ranking                              Smallest
                                                                    Skills deficit

                                          Power engineers and designers – 2.3

                                          Data analysts and digital technology experts – 2.4

                                          Operations and maintenance sector – 2.5

                                          Regulators and policy makers – 2.8

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QTR 2 - 2018

Rise of the machines

Question 3
In terms of impact on jobs and people, which part of the electricity sector workforce will be most enhanced and/or disrupted by technology
such as machine learning, robots, bots, blockchain and Artificial Intelligence? Choose one option:

                               I can’t imagine jobs being
                               significantly disrupted

                                                               9%
                Construction,
                operations and
                maintenance
                                                 14%
                                                                                                                    Customer facing roles
                                                                                               43%

                                             16%

                Office based roles

                                                                  18%

                                                   Engineering and design

                            Customer facing roles such as customer service and sales – 43%

                            Engineering and design – 18%

                            Office based roles such as finance, regulatory and legal – 16%

                            Construction, operations and maintenance – 14%

                            I can’t imagine jobs being significantly disrupted by those technologies, it is just hype – 9%

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QTR 2 - 2018

Trust and confidence: winning the hearts and minds of customers

Question 4
How much faith and trust do customers have in the New Zealand electricity sector? Do developments like the Ministerial power price review
have an impact? How much effort should be placed on building trust and who should do it? Pick the option you most agree with:

                        Retailers are best placed
                        and should do more

                                                         14%

      Network companies
      need to up their game                16%
                                                                                                                 As long as the
                                                                                            51%                  lights stay on,
                                                                                                                 most consumers
                                                                                                                 don’t really care

                                                      19%

                       This is a cross-sector issue

                               To be honest as long as the lights stay on, most consumers don’t really care how
                               it works and how much it costs as long as they aren’t being charged too much
                               (excessive profits). The sector will struggle to tackle this because no-one will
                               listen. – 51%

                               This is a cross-sector issue that the likes of ERANZ and the ENA should be working
                               together on so that information is out there for those with questions and concerns
                               about the sector. – 19%

                               Network companies need to up their game. Most consumers are fine with their
                               retailers, it is the network piece that is most misunderstood and creates the most
                               distrust. Networks need to do more to explain the relationship between service level
                               and price. – 16%

                               Retailers are best placed and should do more. Retailers should provide much more
                               balanced information about what they do, why prices are what they are and how the
                               sector works. This will build trust and confidence in the sector. – 14%

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QTR 2 - 2018

Diversity in the workforce

Question 5
Where do you think more positive effort should be made to address the workforce diversity challenge (gender, age, ethnicity, etc.) faced by the
electricity sector? Choose the option you most align with:

                                           This is yesterday’s problem

                                                                   13%

  Existing utilities and electricity                                                                                       Schools, universities and
  sector organisations need to                                                                                             training organisations
  be doing more individually
                                                    16%                                                 42%

                                                                   29%

                                         This is an industry-wide challenge

                                       Schools, universities and training organisations. This is a generational issue.
                                       Start at the beginning with education and encouragement for all people to
                                       consider a future in the electricity sector. – 42%

                                       This is an industry-wide challenge and hence the industry should come together
                                       through their respective industry associations to adopt common industry wide goals.
                                       Only by tackling this together will anything change. – 29%

                                       Existing utilities and electricity sector organisations need to be doing more individually
                                       with their HR policies around hiring new talent, and looking internally to address the
                                       problems. – 16%

                                       This is yesterday’s problem. Actually, the sector has already recognised the problem
                                       and is already tackling the issue with some great progress so I wouldn’t say any
                                       additional effort is needed. – 13%

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QTR 2 - 2018

Bonus question – just because this is very topical and it will be interesting to see where you all sit on this
one!

Question 6
The Government has announced an end to new offshore exploration permits for oil and gas. A positive move? Choose the option you most
align with.

                              Much ado about nothing

                                                            12%
                   A great move

                                             14%                                                                A lose-lose situation
                                                                                           40%

                                                           34%

                          I agree with the direction the
                          Government is taking

                             A lose-lose situation. This does nothing to reduce emissions, it worsens our energy
                             security position, creates sovereign risk for investors, foregoes necessary revenue
                             to the Crown and reduces the possibility of us finding gas which we could export
                             and offset coal consumption elsewhere in the world. – 40%

                             I agree with the direction the Government is taking but their strategy should be improved.
                             It needs to be more measured, planned and consulted on before decisions are made
                             with potentially big unintended consequences. – 34%

                             A great move, New Zealand needs to lead the way and send a signal. In my opinion this
                             didn’t go far enough. We should do more such as immediately stopping all exploration
                             and hasten the transition to renewable energy solutions across all sectors of the
                             economy. – 14%

                             Much ado about nothing. It was mostly a political move that doesn’t really affect things
                             either way. No new exploration was likely and it won’t affect our emissions profile one
                             iota. Now back to something interesting. – 12%

ENERGY NEWS                                                                                                                              21
www.energynews.co.nz
QTR 3 - 2018

Our third quarter survey asked questions about new policy directions indicated by the Labour Government, one year
into its first term in office. More than 200 respondents provided us their thoughts on the direction of electricity policy
and regulation:

Question 1
We are coming up to 12 months since we had a change of Government for the first time in nine years. With special consideration of the
energy sector, how do you think the coalition is performing so far? Choose one:

                                                             I don’t care

                       I’m not a fan
                       of most of the
                       energy initiatives
                       announced so far
                                                                   2%

                                                       17%                                                  Great, the policy and
                                                                                                            general direction is
                                                                                        31.5%               what this country
                                                                                                            needs

            Atrocious -                     18%
            announcements
            and signalling are
            reducing business
            confidence and
            the appetite for
            investment in the
            New Zealand                                                 31.5%
            energy sector

                                                           Ok, although the new
                                                           offshore oil and gas
                                                           exploration ban was
                                                           worrying

                            Great, the policy and general direction is what this country needs – 31.5%

                            Ok, although the new offshore oil and gas exploration ban was worrying – 31.5%

                            Atrocious - announcements and signalling are reducing business confidence and the
                            appetite for investment in the New Zealand energy sector – 18%

                            I’m not a fan of most of the energy initiatives announced so far – 17%

                            I don’t care – 2%

ENERGY NEWS                                                                                                                              22
www.energynews.co.nz
QTR 3 - 2018

Question 2
The Electricity Price Review expert advisory panel is due to release its first report for discussion in coming weeks. There are plenty of opinions
on what outcomes will ensure fair pricing going forward. Here is your chance to join in. Of the following options, what are the top three
outcomes you want to see from this review?

                                                            Price caps for the retail
                                                            component of energy
                                Creation of a modern
                                centralised model
                                                                                                    Simplification of lines
                                (such as NZ Power)
                                                                                                    company tariffs

           Introduction of mandated
           pricing guides
                                                                     4%
                                                              5%
                                                       7%                                 25%

         Separation of retail
         and generation                       11%

                                                 13%
                                                                                           22%
        No change is needed -
        leave the market as it is                                                                              Revised market
                                                                   13%
                                                                                                               arrangements to
                                                                                                               enable distributed
                                                                                                               energy technology

                                             Stronger regulations to
                                             address energy poverty

                                  Simplification of lines company tariffs – 25%

                                  Revised market arrangements to enable distributed energy technology – 22%

                                  Stronger regulations to address energy poverty – 13%

                                  No change is needed - leave the market as it is – 13%

                                  Separation of retail and generation – 11%

                                  Introduction of mandated pricing guides – 7%

                                  Creation of a modern centralised model (such as NZ Power) – 5%

                                  Price caps for the retail component of energy – 4%

ENERGY NEWS                                                                                                                                     23
www.energynews.co.nz
QTR 3 - 2018

Question 3
The Ministry for the Environment is consulting on changes to the Emissions Trading Scheme. It states the current $25 per tonne price cap on
carbon may be lifted. The carbon price is currently nearing $25. Given this potential change, what price should companies be assuming for
investment decisions? Pick one:

                                               More than $150          $0
                                             $150

                                                                                                     $25

                                                                 6% 2%
                                                         4%
                                                                                    20%

                       $100                27%

                                                                               41%

                                                                                               $40

                               $0 – 2%

                               $25 – 20%

                               $40 – 41%

                               $100 – 27%

                               $150 – 4%

                               More than $150 – 6%

ENERGY NEWS                                                                                                                               24
www.energynews.co.nz
QTR 3 - 2018

Question 4
The Government has also set a target for 100% renewable power generation in a year of average hydrology by 2035. What is the best way for
the sector to work towards this? Choose one:
                                              Allow retailers or lines companies to
                                              remotely control residential electrical
                                              appliances - such as hot water

                   Investigate wider
                   use of peer-to-peer
                   electricity retailing                                                                     Fast-tracking the build of
                                                                                                             already-consented renewable
                                                                 6%
                                                                                                             power generation
                                                    10%

                                                                                              38%

                                           17%

       If this is what the
       Government wants then it
       needs to provide subsidies
       to make it happen

                                                                  29%

                                                  An increased focus on
                                                  demand response to
                                                  smooth out the peaks

                              Fast-tracking the build of already-consented renewable power generation – 38%

                              An increased focus on demand response to smooth out the peaks – 29%

                              If this is what the Government wants then it needs to provide subsidies to make it
                              happen – 17%

                              Investigate wider use of peer-to-peer electricity retailing – 10%

                              Allow retailers or lines companies to remotely control residential electrical appliances -
                              such as hot water – 6%

ENERGY NEWS                                                                                                                                25
www.energynews.co.nz
QTR 3 - 2018

Question 5
With the roles of energy companies evolving quickly it is becoming harder for the Electricity Authority and Commerce Commission to remain fit
for purpose. How do you think the responsibilities of the two watchdogs align with the changing sector? Choose one:

             The EA needs a refresh as there are a lot
             more individual consumers who are buying
             straight from the spot market or becoming
             market participants

         The ComCom needs the
         most work - with lines
         companies becoming                                          8%
         generators and retailers,
         their role is most changed
                                                         10%
                                                                                                                  They should remain
                                                                                                                  separate but have
      They do what they                                                                                           better alignment
      can with a constantly                                                                   43%
                                             10%                                                                  between what they
      changing sector                                                                                             require from those they
                                                                                                                  regulate

                                                               29%

                              There is too much
                              overlap of functions -
                              the two should merge
                              to create a super energy
                              regulator

                              They should remain separate but have better alignment between what they require
                              from those they regulate – 43%

                              There is too much overlap of functions - the two should merge to create a super energy
                              regulator – 29%

                              They do what they can with a constantly changing sector – 10%

                              The ComCom needs the most work - with lines companies becoming generators and
                              retailers, their role is most changed – 10%

                              The EA needs a refresh as there are a lot more individual consumers who are buying straight
                              from the spot market or becoming market participants – 8%

ENERGY NEWS                                                                                                                                 26
www.energynews.co.nz
Participants by organisation type
  993 RESPONSES

                                                         KEY

                                                               Distribution 22%
                            3% 1% 1%
                       3%
             3%                                                Gentailer 17%

                                                               Consultant 13%

                                             22%               Other 6%
                  3%
             4%
                                                               Transmission 6%
         4%
                                                               Consumer 5%
        4%
                                                               Professional services company 5%
        5%
                                                   17%
                                                               Generator 4%
             5%
                                                               Regulator 4%
                   6%
                            6%         13%                     Equipment supplier 4%

                                                               Government department/agency 3%

                                                               Small retailer 3%

                                                               Consumer – large 3%

                                                               Upstream oil and gas 3%

                                                               Lobby/association 1%

                                                               Academic 1%

ENERGY NEWS                                                                                       27
www.energynews.co.nz
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