FOOD VALUE CHAIN, FROM seeds TO you - LONGPOINT ...

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FOOD VALUE CHAIN, FROM seeds TO you - LONGPOINT ...
FOOD VA LU E CHAIN,
FROM seeds TO you
WINTER 2018
FOOD VALUE CHAIN, FROM seeds TO you - LONGPOINT ...
“T he food industry has
 tremendous opportunity,
 as well as an obligation, to
 meet the needs of new, more
 sophisticated and more
 demanding consumers while
 satisfying shareholders’
 demands for returns—
 and in doin g so creating a
 sustainable food supply for
 the new millennium.”
                      – Deloitte
FOOD VALUE CHAIN, FROM seeds TO you - LONGPOINT ...
ta b l e o f c o n t e n ts
INTRODUCTION                                        4
        wh ere do es yo u r fo o d c o m e from?

PA RT I :                                         7
        Wh en fa rm to ta b l e was a s hort t r ip

PA RT I I:                                        10
        P ro c es s ed a n d Pac k aged
        by th e M i gh ty F ew

PA RT I II:                                       13
        C h a l l en ges o f
        Fres h a n d S p ec i a l

PA RT I V:                                        17
        S u m m a ry a n d I m pact
        o n Rea l Estate M a rk ets

REFERENCE NOTES                                    22
FOOD VALUE CHAIN, FROM seeds TO you - LONGPOINT ...
where does your food come from?
In a recent study, 71% of consumers noted that they make purchasing
decisions based on their understanding of a product’s full ingredient
list, and 54% said that they prioritize the source of their food. These
two factors were rated as being more important than organic labeling,
packaging, fat content, and brand. 1 For modern grocery shoppers, the
source of food matters more than ever.
To better understand the significance of these                                        consumers procure food products, has dramatically
findings, we must first define what we mean by                                        impacted all participants of the “food value chain.”
“source.” That is, are we referring to the original
physical source of the food (i.e., mineral, plant,                                    Deloitte defines the food value chain as “the network
animal), the geographical location and farm where                                     of stakeholders involved in growing, processing,
it originated, the processing plant where it was                                      and selling the food that consumers eat – from farm
prepared, the company that packages it, the logistics                                 to table.”2 The five key categories in this system are:
firm that distributes it, or the grocery store that sells it.                         suppliers of farming inputs such as seeds, fertilizer,
For consumers, the concept of “source” encompasses                                    and equipment; food producers engaged in farming
all these elements. A global “food awakening” is                                      and ranching; processors that handle the harvesting
driving a thirst for knowledge about the foods we eat                                 and processing of raw foods; brands that package
along with a desire to eat healthier foods, irrespective                              and transport the finished food product; and grocery
of individual background, wealth level, or age. This                                  retailers that deliver the product to the consumer.
food awakening, in addition to a global population
movement into larger cities and a shift in how

F I G U R E 1 : K E Y P L AY E R S : T H E F O O D VA LU E C H A I N

                                   “BIG AG”                                                                                GROCERY

                      “LEFT OF                              “RIGHT OF
                                                                                                                                               “CONSUMER”
                    THE FARMER”                            THE FARMER”

   INPUTS                         PRODUCERS                               PROCESSORS              BRANDS                       RETAILERS
   “Seeds, fertilizer,            “The farmer”                            “The ABCDs of           “CPG and                     “Supermarket
   chem, equipment”                                                       commodities”            distributors”                chains”

   • Dow Chemical                 • Livestock production                  • ADM                   • Nestle                     • Wal-Mart
   • DuPont                       • Crop production                       • Bunge                 • PepsiCo                    • Costco
   • ChemChina                    • Horticultural science                 • Cargill               • Coca-Cola                  • Kroger
   • Syngenta                                                             • Dreyfus               • Unilever                   • Target
   • Bayer                                                                                        • Danone                     • Albertsons
   • Monsanto                                                                                     • General Mills              • Publix
   • John Deere                                                                                   • Kellogg’s                  • HEB
                                                                                                  • Mars                       • Whole Foods
                                                                                                  • Associated British Foods   • Southeastern Grocers
                                                                                                  • Mondelez

                                                                         F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u                           4
FOOD VALUE CHAIN, FROM seeds TO you - LONGPOINT ...
For the purposes of clarity, we have placed food retail         Stagnating demand for traditional grocery products has
products into four major categories: Repeat, Fresh,             led to huge consolidation in the realm of Big Ag, and as
Special and Frozen. Repeat refers to the packaged               a result, packaged foods are increasingly controlled by
center-aisle products that have historically been the           a small number of global mega-companies. As demand
mainstay of the grocery industry because they are               for mass-produced packaged foods continues to stall
typically bought on an ongoing basis. If the product            or decline, these same companies will focus on the
comes wrapped, in a box, or in a can, it probably falls into    fresh and specialty foods categories. This process
this category. Fresh refers to perishable products such         has already begun and is expected to continue into
as produce, meat, seafood, and prepared foods with              the foreseeable future (Figure 5). Further, growth in
limited shelf life. These products require specialized          demand for fresh and special grocery products coupled
transportation and storage. Special products are those          with improved capabilities for customized delivery has
not typically stocked in mainstream supermarkets.               resulted in substantial changes in the strategies of Big
These items include ethnic and locally sourced products         Ag and big brand companies.
from non-national suppliers. Lastly, frozen products can
include any of the items listed above, in a frozen state.
Historically, within each category, there have been
different participants, regulations, supply chain and
logistics models, and consumer requirements. Today,
these categories and their members are all converging
in order to meet the current and projected shopping
patterns of the modern consumer.

Today, the food value chain for most products is
dominated by “Big Ag” companies: large global firms
that dominate each phase of the chain (Figure 1). For
instance, a wheat farmer (large or small) in Kansas
may grow his crop using inputs from DuPont and sell
it to Cargill, which then transports the grain to Kellogg,
which in turn processes these raw ingredients into
snack products that are sold to The Kroger Company,
which finally sells it to the consumer. The consumer can
buy the product in the store itself, click and collect at
the store, or have it delivered to his or her home.

It is important to note that each food category and
individual item within each category requires its own
distinct combination of the five components of the
food value chain. Big Ag companies, dominant in
three of the five categories, have historically operated
predominantly in the supply chain for Repeat goods,             The real estate infrastructure of the food value
as this was where the most money was to be made.                chain is in the process of a massive restructuring to
Fresh and Special products, which necessitate                   accommodate modern supply chain models. The
specialized handling, are costlier to grow and produce,         impact of this evolution has been felt mostly in the
require more complex supply chain management                    industrial sector, where we believe industrial properties
models, and require more government oversight and               will continue to move closer to population centers (see
regulation, have historically seen less demand from             Longpoint Review Spring 2018). Less obvious changes
consumers. Consumer demand patterns, however, are               are occurring in the grocery brick and mortar sector in
rapidly changing.                                               the form of new concept stores, smaller stores, more
                                                                urban locations, new entrants (e.g., Lidl), increased

                                                     F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u               5
FOOD VALUE CHAIN, FROM seeds TO you - LONGPOINT ...
mergers and acquisitions among retailers (e.g.,                    This paper examines the changing preferences of
Amazon/Whole Foods) and distributors (e.g., Unified/               today’s consumers and the evolving roles of the key
SuperValu), growing home delivery options, click and               members in the food value chain, along with the
collect strategies, and growth of ethnic grocers. Thus, it         resulting impact on real estate markets.
will come as no surprise that there are currently exciting
investment opportunities in almost every aspect of the
food value chain (Figure 2).

F I G U R E 2 : T R E N D S I N F O O D LO G I S T I C S

                                                            Consumer

    Demand-
      side
     Trends

                   Lifestyle Trends                   Delivery Mechanisms                       Grocery Trends

                     Urbanization                                                                    Source
                                          Brick &            Home                Click &
                  Demographic shifts      Mortar            Delivery             Collect         Full Disclosure

                 Emerging consumer                     Instant gratification                          Local
                    technology
                                                           Easy returns                             Organic

                                                            Low cost                                 Ethnic

                                                         Large selection                              Fresh

     Supply-
      side
     Trends

                 Big AG Consolidation           Brands & Retailers Go Vertical             New Grocery Store Formats

                 Consolidation of input   Consolidation of large brands (Kraft-Heinz)         Rise of small limited
                      producers                                                             assortment chains (Aldi,
                                            Large brands acquiring smaller brands                Trader Joe’s)
                 Consolidation of AG
                     processors           Investments in fresh and specialty products        Rise of specialty grocer
                                                                                             chains (fresh & ethnic)
                Increasing competition          Amazon-Whole Foods merger
                                                                                               Rising store counts
                   Declining margins      Costco, Walmart, Kroger vertical integration
                                                                                               Smaller store sizes
                                            United Natural Foods-Supervalu merger
                                                                                                   More urban

                                                    Supply Chain Restructuring

                                                      F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u           6
FOOD VALUE CHAIN, FROM seeds TO you - LONGPOINT ...
H i sto ry
FOOD VALUE CHAIN, FROM seeds TO you - LONGPOINT ...
When Farm to Table Was a Short Trip
In 1798, when English clergyman Thomas Malthus famously argued that
global population growth would ultimately outstrip the world’s food
supply, he could not have predicted the rise of mechanized agriculture,
advances in horticultural science, and the globalization of the world’s
food supply chain. 3 Agriculture around the world has evolved from a
system of family farms and local agrarian economies to a system of
mass production and global distribution on a scale unimaginable to
Malthus and his contemporaries.
The U.S. offers an ideal case study for global changes
in the food supply chain. In colonial times, the
economy was almost entirely agricultural. At least 90%
of working Americans made part or all of their living
through farming.4 Most of the food people ate came
from their own farms, or from those of their neighbors.
The advent of the Industrial Revolution, however,
along with population growth and related public policy
initiatives, heralded an era of enormous change, and
led to the transition to a mechanized and consolidated
agricultural sector. Then, in 1862, the Homestead Act
allocated 270 million acres of free land to approximately
1.6 million people. Participants were granted ownership
of a parcel once they built a home and cultivated the
land, a policy initiative that bolstered the fortunes of
many impoverished farmers in the East and Midwest.
As the agricultural economy progressed, these smaller
farms increasingly merged into larger ones.5 At the
same time, a range of technological advances led to
greater crop yields and the logistical means to deliver
them to distant locations. The McCormick reaper,
steam and gasoline-powered tractors, hybridized
corn, and coast-to-coast refrigerated shipping were all
developments that linked the agricultural economies of
previously disparate markets.6

In the mid-1900s, advances in mechanical engineering,        of “combine” harvesters – used to cut, thresh, and clean
horticultural science, and transportation technology         grain simultaneously – bolstered crop yields.7 Meanwhile,
accelerated the growth of the national agricultural          the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides grew
economy. Between 1930 and 1960, the number of                dramatically.8 Then, in the 1960s, genetic modifications
tractors increased fivefold, while the number of farm        and the cultivation of hybrid strains of corn, wheat, and
horses and mules declined by 87%. The size and efficacy      rice boosted crop yields even further.9

                                                  F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u               8
These mid-twentieth-century technological and                         share of the overall US population of farm laborers
                      scientific developments led American farm productivity                declined from 41% in 1900 to 1.9% in 2000. 12
                      and size to double between 1948 and 1998. Grain yield
                      per acre for corn, a mainstay in the U.S. agricultural                Thus, the current food industry is almost unrecognizable
                      economy, increased by more than five times in the 80-                 from its earlier incarnations. Food that used to travel
                      year period between 1936 and 2016 (see Figure TBD),11                 directly from the field to the kitchen table may now
                      and the average farm size increased from under 200                    cross multiple state and country borders before landing
                      acres to over 400 acres. With larger farms producing                  on the consumer’s table, leaving people with very little
                      more efficiently, the total number of farms declined                  knowledge of the origin of their food.
                      from over five million to under three million, and the

                      F I G U R E 3 : T H E C O R N Y I E L D “ H O C K E Y S T I C K ” 10

                                                       U.S. Corn Grain Yield Trends Since 1866
                                                                Data Source: USDA-NASS (as of Jan 2017)
                      200

                       180
                                                                                                                                        2016

                       160

                       140

                                                                                             y = 1.8858x - 3635.8515
                                                                                                    R 2 = 0.9166                     2012
Grain yeild (bu/ac)

                       120

                       100

                                                                                                                       1988
                       80

                       60
                                                                      y = 0.76x - 1452.40
                                                                           R 2 = 0.72
                                                                                                                                                      1956–2016
                       40
                                                                                                                                                      1937–1955
                                                                                                                                                      1866–1936

                       20                                                                                                                             2016

                         0
                          1840      1860      1880       1900         1920           1940       1960           1980           2000    2020     2040

                                                                               F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u                       9
the mighty
       few
F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u   10
Processed and Packaged by the Mighty Few
Much of our traditional center aisle food today comes from “row crops”
– that is, crops that are planted in rows to accommodate mechanized
agriculture. In the increasingly consolidated food industry, Big Ag
dominates every phase of the food value chain for row crop agriculture.
Up until 2016, six supplier firms – Dow Chemical,           control more than 80% of the global grains market. 20
DuPont, ChemChina, Syngenta, Bayer, and Monsanto            As a result of the large market share occupied by
– controlled more than 60% of the market for                these firms, row crop farmers are subject to pricing
agricultural inputs (seeds, pesticides, and herbicides).    pressures from the mega-companies from which
Each of the six firms has since merged with another         they source their farming inputs, as well as from the
company.13 Chemical Company and DuPont Pioneer              large firms to which they sell their farming outputs.
merged in 2017, with a deal size of roughly $62 billion,    Consequently, the total number of farms in the United
and the combined company now carries out functions          States has declined year over year since 2007 and
ranging from materials science to agricultural              farm net income has remained low, and there is little
technologies.14 ChemChina acquired Swiss company            sign of this trend abating. 21
Syngenta in July 2017 for $43 billion,15 and Bayer
bought Monsanto in June 2018 for $66 billion, further       Once the food has been grown and harvested, it
consolidating this segment of the market.16 Individual      is transferred to a distributor, which is typically a
farmers and farming companies now source most of            major global consumer package goods (CPG) brand
their inputs from one of these providers. For example,      (Figure 4). At this level of the value chain, there
90% of U.S. cotton seeds come from one of these             are ten global companies that control nearly every
three mega-companies.17                                     major food and beverage brand in the world: Nestlé,
                                                            PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Unilever, Danone, General
Just as a few companies dominate row crop                   Mills, Kellogg’s, Mars, Associated British Foods, and
agriculture, two types of crops dominate the US farm        Mondelez.22 McKinsey & Company notes that since
production economy: corn and soybeans. In 2017, the         2011, CPG companies have witnessed declining year-
total value of production for corn was $48.5 billion,       over-year growth rates, which are now in the low single
while the total value of production for soybeans was        digits, as well as shareholder returns that have lagged
$41 billion. The next largest US crop is hay, at $16.2      the S&P 500. McKinsey attributes this trend to new
billion.18 The outsized production share of corn and        distribution channels and buying preferences, as well
soybeans reflects the geographic farming landscape,         as disruptive new brands and retailers. 23 As this arena
with corn and soybeans accounting for 172.2 million         has become more competitive, firms have focused
harvested acres, while staple crops like cotton,            on cutting operating costs and creating greater
sorghum, and rice accounting for a combined total of        efficiency through mergers and acquisitions. A study
only 18.8 million acres harvested annually.19 Thus, a       by PwC covering 115 CPG deals each valued at over
small number of crops are generating massive profits        $3 billion found that the average deal size had more
for a small number of corporations at the input stage       than tripled between 2014 and 2016. 24 A significant
of the food value chain.                                    proportion of this increase can be attributed to the
                                                            trend of larger firms buying smaller brands in the
The third stage of the food value chain is also marked      natural and ethnic foods category, such as Nestle’s
by a high degree of consolidation among companies           acquisition of Terrafertil, Atrium Innovations, and
engaged in purchasing and processing. The “ABCDs”           Tribe Mediterranean Foods.
of commodities – ADM, Burge, Cargill, and Dreyfus –

                                                 F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u              11
Beyond industry consolidation and new concept             Today’s food products come from an increasingly
brand acquisitions, some firms are vertically             vast and complex web of inputs, farmers, processors,
integrating across multiple levels of the food value      distributors, and supply chain logistics. However, at
chain. This is particularly true of Kraft Heinz tomato    every stage of the value chain, a few industry giants
products. The value chain process begins with             dominate. Long gone are the days when people grew
Heinz propriety seeds, which are supplied by the          and ate their own food or bought it from their neighbor.
HeinzSeed company. 25 These seeds are incubated           Today’s food may have been grown in one state and
in warehouses and subsequently planted on farms           processed in another, with stops at multiple locations
located primarily in California’s Central Valley,         before reaching its final destination, making it more
which supplies approximately 95% of the nation’s          difficult for consumers to understand the source
processed tomato stock and one third of the entire        of their food. However, in response to increased
world’s processed tomatoes. 26 After harvest, the         pressure from consumers, the members of the food
tomatoes are transferred to a partner food processing     value chain have begun making a more concerted
company such as Morning Star, the world’s largest         effort to provide greater transparency when it comes
tomato-processing organization, which has three           to food source.
facilities in the Central Valley. 27 After processing,
the refined tomato-based product is packaged and
transferred back to Kraft Heinz, which relies on a
network of 88 distribution centers nationwide to route
goods to the end buyer, which is typically a grocery
store location. 28

F I G U R E 4 : T H E G I A N T S W H O P R O D U C E YO U R F O O D

                                               F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u              12
F r es h a n d
    s p ec i a l
F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u   13
Challenges of fresh and special
While consumer demand for Repeat items drove the           Because of the immensity of the logistical challenges
growth of Big Ag during the 20th century, demand for       involved in the delivery of Fresh and Special products,
these row crops and center aisle products has been         key food industry firms have been consolidating
stagnating in recent years. As consumer sentiment has      vertically across the supply chain to ensure quality
steadily shifted toward fresh, organic, locally sourced    and quantity. In the grocery wholesale sector, for
food, American farmers have also begun to focus on         example, Supervalu bought Unified Grocers for
fresh and specialty products. 29 Although Big Ag is        $390 million in 2017, giving the national wholesale
more economically efficient than smaller companies         chain access to 345 independent grocery stores
and accounts for the majority of agricultural sector       on the West Coast. 31 In the poultry sector, Tyson
revenue, brand companies selling Fresh and Special         Foods integrated the entire supply chain – breeding
products are on the rise. In addition, the growth and      stock, egg hatcheries, farms, processing facilities,
success of “healthy” grocery chains such as Whole          and transportation infrastructure. In grocery retail,
Foods and Sprouts is due to locally sourced or             The Kroger Company now operates seventeen dairy
natural foods branding. In the period spanning 2016        plants, ten deli and bakery plants, two beverage
to 2018, Sprouts opened 67 new retail stores, making       plants, two cheese plants, one meat plant, and a fleet
it one of the fastest growing grocery retailers in the     of vehicles that conduct 8,600 daily deliveries. 32 33
country. 30 Further, ethnic grocers such as Presidente,    Similarly, Costco is developing a poultry processing
Cardenas Markets, El Rancho, and H Mart have               facility in Nebraska that will supply the 90 million
emerged as ethnic grocery specialists, driving Publix      chickens it sells per annum. In 2016, taking its cue
and Winn Dixie to convert some existing stores into        from competitors such as Kroger and Albertsons,
Latin-themed banners, Publix Sabor and Fresco              which operate 37 and 19 dairy manufacturing plants
Y Mas. Even traditional grocers such as Kroger,            respectively, Walmart decided to enter the dairy
Walmart, and Publix have been changing the internal        business with the establishment of a 250,000 square
layouts of their stores to increase local and organic      foot dairy plant in Indiana. 34
offerings and provide a more expansive selection of
healthful produce.

                                                F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u             14
As the trend towards consolidation and vertical              that maintain a safe cold storage environment for
integration continues, new, increasingly complex             meat in transit. 37 The dairy supply chain is similarly
logistical infrastructure designed to deliver fresh          complex. The Cabot Creamery Co-operative in New
products is emerging. Fresh products require a               England transports milk in special stainless-steel
complex network of climate-controlled transportation         insulated trucks from over 1,000 family farms to four
and storage infrastructure that reduces spoilage and         refinement facilities (creameries). After processing,
maintains quality. In addition, specialized warehousing      finished milk, yogurt, cheese, and butter products
facilities for perishables must be located near the          each require their own temperature settings for the
consumer or grocery retail destination in order to           journey to their final destination. 38
minimize transportation time and distance. Each
individual supplier must pass food safety checks and         Produce requires similarly specialized logistical
inspections that are both rigorous and expensive.            infrastructure. For example, Stemlit Fruit harvests apples
The necessity of third-party intermediaries (there are       from company-owned orchards in four districts of
over 33,000 different food manufacturing companies           Washington state between August and October every
in the United States) 35 for handling the sorting and        year, and then packages and stores the fruit in controlled
distribution of local produce adds an additional layer       atmosphere facilities. These highly specialized facilities
of complexity to procurement. 36                             use nitrogen gas to reduce oxygen levels from 21%
                                                             to 2%, and maintain a strict climate of 32-36°F with 95%
In the meat supply chain, for example, cold storage          humidity. While seafood products share some of the
procedures begin in the slaughterhouse, where                same basic requirements, they pose their own particular
carcasses must be cooled to under 7°C (4°C for               logistical challenges. Alvaro Carril of Chile-based LAN
poultry) to avoid bacterial growth and extend shelf          Cargo, which transports seafood and produce from
life. A network of climate-controlled aircraft, vessels,     South America to the US, notes, “Transporting salmon
trucks, and warehouse facilities are aided by                is different than moving flowers, and both commodities
compressors and ventilation and insulation systems           require special and differential treatment.” 39

F I G U R E 5 : B I G F O O D B R A N D S B U Y I N G O R G A N I C / N AT U R A L F O O D B R A N D S

                            Atrium                  Terrafertil
                          Innovations

                                                 F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u                 15
Special products that exist outside the main grocery       Although the specific logistics requirements of
supply channels also depend on a specialized, often        different Fresh and Special goods vary considerably,
local, supply chain. For example, the supermarket          common to all is an increasingly complex web of
chain Sprouts uses a decentralized procurement             management systems, transportation resources,
system to source a variety of natural and organic          and industrial warehousing infrastructure needed
products. The Sprouts supply chain of 2,400 products       to deliver products to consumers. If, as expected,
from over 850 vendors is primarily locally sourced,        demand for these products continues to grow, then
meaning food comes from within a 500-mile radius           the need for logistics systems that can safely and
of the retail store. 40 The chain accomplishes this        efficiently deliver them to consumers will also increase,
feat by using dedicated regional procurement teams         creating a considerable supply-demand imbalance in
that have the flexibility to buy different products in     the industrial and retail real estate sectors, and thus
different locations based on availability. 41              considerable investment opportunities for Longpoint
                                                           Realty Partners.

Similarly, ethnic food suppliers are building out their
global logistics infrastructure in response to growing
demand. The shopping preferences of the two
fastest growing demographic segments in the US,
Asian-Americans and Hispanics, have spurred the
rise of alternative grocery channels. 42 For example,
Goya, the largest US-based manufacturer of Hispanic
food, offers over 2,500 products from the Caribbean,
Mexico, Spain, Central, and South America, and
operates 26 distribution facilities throughout the US,
Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Spain. 43
Similarly, products sourced by Diaz Foods, another
ethnic wholesale distributor, reach thousands of
East Coast customers by travelling through one
40,000 square foot cold storage facility and one
60,000 square foot dry storage facility, both located
in Virginia. 44 The company recently expanded its
distribution network by leasing a trucking fleet
through a partnership with Ryder, and will increase
its warehouse footprint in the near future. The
partnership enables Diaz Foods to incorporate the
most technologically advanced vehicles into its
supply chain without making the capital investment
of owning them, thereby maximizing efficiency and
minimizing costs while providing optimal delivery of
their products. 45

                                                F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u               16
r e a l estat e
i m p l i cat i on s
Summary and Impact on Real Estate Markets
The rise of the Fresh and Special segment s                                     The increasing complexity of the food retail
necessitates the combination of infill logistics facilities                     landscape and consequent rise of specialty and
and locally-relevant grocery retail concepts that can                           alternative format grocers has created a niche for
effectively and efficiently deliver these products                              third-party logistical (“3PL”) solutions. Given that
to today’s consumers. As urban brick and mortar                                 investments in distribution real estate infrastructure
grocery retail stores grow in number and diversify by                           require major capital outlays with significant fixed
concept type and size, logistics industrial facilities will                     costs, it makes sense to aggregate the warehouse
continue to be built nearer to population centers and                           operations for multiple smaller firms under a few
to service more varied food value chain participants.                           external providers. 48 Larger supermarket chains such
                                                                                as Walmart have also sought to manage expenses
In the past, the dominant grocery logistics model                               by moving to outside logistics companies, which
employed by major supermarket chains was to                                     can lower labor costs by 50%. 49 Thus, over the past
own and operate their own distribution facilities, an                           twenty years, many grocery chains have shed their
approach intended to ensure product quality and                                 supply chain real estate to 3PLs, which have expanded
quantity. 46 Then, in the late 20th century and early                           their warehousing and logistics infrastructure.
2000s, most major grocery store chains built large                              For example, the Kroger Company has outsourced
distribution centers one or more hours outside of                               over 6.7 million square feet of warehouse space
urban areas to serve stores within a broader region.                            (one-third of its total capacity) over a ten-year period.
Many of these facilities are still directly owned and                           Other chains such as Ahold, Safeway, Trader Joe’s,
managed by supermarket chains. For example, Publix                              A&P, Pathmark, BI-LO, and Wawa have followed suit. 50
warehouse facilities in Florida today are on average
42 years old with 383,400 square feet of space, 25-                             Grocery 3PLs are now expanding at a rapid rate
foot clearance height, and 54 dock-high doors. 47                               to meet growing demand, driving competition

FIGURE 6: U. S. GROCERY INDUSTRY GROW TH

                                                                                                         N u m b e r o f N at u r a l a n d
                   T o ta l U . S . S u p e r m a r k e t S a l e s                                     s p e c i a lt y S u p e r m a r k e t s

 ($ in billions)
700                                                                                7,500
         17% increase                                                                         35.6% increase
         from 2011-2017                                                                       from 2011-2017
650                                                                                                                                                        7,047
                                                                                   7,000
                                                                                                                                                   6,778
                                                                      $612                                                               6,616
                                                              $600
600                                                 $588                           6,500                                       6,386
                                          $574
                                                                                                                     6,179
550                                $549
                         $539                                                      6,000
         $523                                                                                                5,738

500                                                                                5,500
                                                                                             5,197
450                                                                                5,000

400                                                                                4,500
         2011           2012       2013   2014      2015      2016    2017                   2011            2012    2013      2014      2015      2016    2017
      Source: U.S. Census Bureau                                                           Source: Nielsen

                                                                      F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u                                     18
for urban industrial space. Large wholesale and             USDA defines “specialty distributors” as providers
distribution companies such as C&S Wholesale                of “…frozen foods, dairy products, meat and meat
Grocers, Supervalu, SpartanNash, and Sysco, which           products, or fresh fruits and vegetables…[which]
tend to cater to traditional branded CPG products,          operate in niche markets…”). 53 These third-party firms
have recently made significant investments in their         today account for 45% of total grocery wholesale
metropolitan warehouse infrastructure. C&S, the tenth       revenues. 54 That said, many key retailers have
largest private company, now has over twenty facilities     chosen to invest in their own infrastructure in order to
in the Northeast alone, with most of them situated on       handle the logistics of fresh and unique products. For
the outskirts of major cities such as Baltimore, New        example, Amazon has invested in three million square
York, Philadelphia, and Hartford. 51 Sysco has over 120     feet of warehouse space to power its AmazonFresh
U.S. warehouses, with multiple dedicated facilities         and Amazon Prime Pantry grocery delivery programs,
of varying sizes and locations for each major metro         which is still only one-tenth of the warehouse space
area. For example, its South Florida footprint consists     that Wal-Mart uses for specialty food distribution. 55
of smaller handling facilities located near the airport,
a 657,000 square foot facility 15 miles Northwest of        Today’s brick and mortar grocery landscape reflects
Miami, and additional fresh-focused facilities in Fort      these investments in logistics infrastructure. Supply
Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. 52                          chain optimization and expanded infill warehousing
                                                            facilities have enabled a proliferation of small-
Growing demand for Fresh and Special grocery                format supermarkets. Chains such as Aldi, Lidl, and
items and the related logistical complexities has           Trader Joe’s – with average store sizes between
also bolstered the role of “specialty distributors” (the    8,000 and 15,000 square feet – have flourished in

                                                 F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u              19
urban environments where retail space is limited.                 by 32% and total store sales have increased by 17%,
Aldi led the nation in the number of two-year net                 driven by the growth of new store concepts, sizes,
store openings between 2016 and 2018, with 171                    and urban locations. This trend was made possible
new locations. 56 Larger retail chains such as Walmart            by the development of an urban food logistics
have also pioneered smaller brick and mortar brands,              network nationwide.
such as Walmart Neighborhood Market, which are less
than half the size of a standard Walmart Supercenter.             Regardless of whether food is procured through brick
These changes in grocery store formats have                       and mortar stores, curbside pickup, or home delivery,
caused the median store size in the U.S. to decline               real estate operators must work to understand the
by 12.2% since 2006. 57 As these smaller stores have              evolving supply-chain landscape and adapt according
penetrated urban areas, over the past six years, the              to the physical requirements of the food industry in
total number of U.S. grocery stores has increased                 the 21st century.

DWIGHT ANGELINI                              T O M S T I PA N O V
m a n a g i n g pa r t n e r                 a s s o c i at e
617 861 9761                                 617 861 97 72
a n g e l i n i @ l o n g p o i n t. c o m   s t i pa n o v @ l o n g p o i n t. c o m

                                                     F O O D VA L U E C H A I N . F R O M s e e d s t o y o u             20
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