FOOD-FOR THOUGHT WEEKLY - DATE: 30 July 2021 - Rand Agri

WEEKLY
FOOD-FOR
THOUGHT
DATE: 30 July 2021

WEATHER
• USA international weather forecast
• North Dakota Drought

INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURE
•   Brazil corn harvest tempo
•   North American grain condition
•   Brazil cold front
•   China’s Imports
•   CBOT

NATIONAL AGRICULTURE                     INDEX
• Transnet cyber attack
• South Free State fire damages

EXCHANGE RATE
• Overview – USD/ZAR

RAND AGRI SNAPSHOT
• Trader snapshot: producer deliveries

INTERNATIONAL WEATHER
USA WEEKLY FORECAST:

Precipitation probability for next
week is still below normal levels,
although temperatures should
turn a bit colder (normal),
compared to the past weeks’
heatwave.

INTERNATIONAL WEATHER
NORTH DAKOTA DROUGHT:

The State of North Dakota is extremely dry and has
received almost 50% less than normal rainfall for the year.
Spring wheat in North Dakota is expected to deliver 29,5
bushels per acre, compared to the 5-year average of 43,3
bushels per acre.

This drought extends into South Dakota and Montana as
well as portions of Canada.

                                                              https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/grains-wheat-firms-for-2nd-day-as-dry-weather-hits-us-spring-crop

PARITIES                                         $
IMPORT PARITY PRICES OF OILSEEDS
         As on the 27th of July 2021

                                       Resource: SAGIS

AGRICULTURE
BRAZIL

Corn harvest tempo

In all of Brazil only 41,3% of the
corn has been harvested,
compared to 54,3% last year.

In Mato Grosso, 72,8% of the
Safrinha corn has been
harvested. This is far below last
years tempo of 86,6% and the
5-year average of 80,7%.

Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul
are the farthest behind in the
harvest with respectively 4%
and 8% of the harvests in these
states completed .

AGRICULTURE
USA

Corn:
Corn conditions were rated 64%
good/excellent, compared to 65%
last week and compared to 68% last
year.

Soybeans:
Soybean conditions were rated 58%
good/excellent, compared to 60%
last week and 72% last year.

Wheat:
Spring wheat conditions were rated
9% good/excellent, compared to 11%
last week and 70% last year.

84% of winter wheat is harvested.

                                     Resource: USDA NASS

INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURE
BRAZIL FROST IMPLICATIONS

A cold front with a forecast for frost formation is
moving in over Southern Brazil. This frost will likely
affect the Safrinha corn in Paraná, the second-
largest corn producer in Brazil, and in the extreme
south of Mato Grosso do Sul from 28-30 July.

In São Paulo and Paraná moderate to severe frosts
could affect Safrinha-corn that is still in the grain-
filling stage, CONAB said late on Tuesday. The
Safrinha corn in these regions were mostly planted
after the ideal planting window and has suffered a
dry growing season and two bouts of frost in the
past three weeks.

Resource: Brazil maize-production

INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURE
CHINA’S IMPORTS

China is a relatively moderate maize
importer, compared to the rest of the
world, although its imports have
jumped by 320% since 2020.

However, China is the world's largest
soybean importer, accounting for
almost 60% of the world's total
exports.

Resource: Twitter: @KevinVanTrump

                                        Soybeans – China imports vs. Global exports   Maize – China imports vs. Global exports

CBOT-CORN                                                       $
    CBOT-CORN DECEMBER

•    Corns is currently trading sideways.
•    Corn’s initial resistance is at $5,52 followed by $5,54.

CBOT-SOYBEANS                                          $
CBOT-SOYBEANS NOVEMBER

•   Soybean prices decreased this week.
•   Initial resistance is at $13,72 followed by $14.
•   Soybeans are currently trading sideways.

NATIONAL AGRICULTURE
TRANSNET CYBER-ATTACK

Disruptions in Transnet’s IT applications following a cyber-
attack brought agricultural imports and exports to a standstill
last week. While the Ports Authority continued to operate,
vessels moving in and out of the ports were being recorded
manually, Transnet said.

Operations across the group are continuing, with the Freight
Rail, Pipelines, Engineering, and Property divisions reporting
normal activity. Port terminals are operational across the
system, with the exception of container terminals. Stacking
date registrations should be complete, which will speed up
the unloading of cargo containers in the Cape Town harbour.

The loading and unloading of urgent cargo containers for the
agricultural sector, motor industry, and fast-moving consumer
goods will be prioritized at all ports.

Read more: Transnet-cyber-attack

NATIONAL AGRICULTURE
SOUTHERN FREE STATE VELD FIRE DAMAGE

Southern Free State farmers were left devastated on 12-13 July
2021 during the single largest fire that hit the area yet, with 104
235 hectares of agricultural land burnt to the ground, said Dr. Jack
Armor, operations manager of Free State Agriculture.

A stormy wind powered the flames on, which eventually raged for
27 hours, crossing 100 km.

Official figures released by the Free State Umbrella Fire Association
(FSUFPA) on July 22 show that 35 farms veld burned down
completely, with 134 farms losing 90% and 216 farms losing more
than 50%.
Free State Agriculture (FSA) estimates the loss of grazing at
approximately R345,5 million, with the early estimated loss of
livestock and infrastructure at approximately R33,5 million.

Dr. Jack Armor appealed to the public to provide support to the
farming community in the devastated areas. People who want to
help can visit the FSA's website.

EXCHANGE RATE                                                                                           $
                                                                   USD/ZAR
The USD/ZAR has strengthen and is currently trading above its 100-day moving average of R14,55, surpassing its 21-day moving average of R14,77 on
Wednesday and the 50-day moving average of R14,67 on Thursday. The reinforcement of the Rand is due to the weaker dollar following the Federal
                                Bank's announcement on Wednesday that interest rates will remain unchanged.

TRADER SNAPSHOT
PRODUCER DELIVERIES FOR 2020/21 SEASON

                                                                        White maize                                    Yellow maize
Maize                              WM1         WM2    WM3      WMO                    YM1     YM2      YM3     YMO                    Grand Total
                                                                        Total (ton)                                     Total (ton)
Producer deliveries from 1 May 5 610 319 231 727     18 492     582      5 861 120 5 085 485 140 849   2 867   6 612    5 235 813     11 096 933
till 23 July
Sixth production forecast                                                8 936 815                                       7 494 300    16 431 115
Difference -outstanding                                                 -3 075 695                                      -2 258 487    -5 334 182

                                                     Sunflower seed      Soyabeans
Oilseeds
                                                       Total (ton)       Total (ton)
Producer deliveries from 27 Feb till 23 July                  627 047         1 808 569
Sixth production forecast figure                              677 240         1 918 150
Difference -outstanding                                       -50 193          -109 581

Resource: SAGIS
This information is voluntary submitted by co-workers registered with SAGIS where producer deliveries are commercially received

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