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119 fnrs.news THE MAGAZINE OF THE FUND FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH - FNRS - QUARTERLY No. 119 • June 2020 - P201210 June 2020 APOCALYPSE? www.frs-fnrs.be • June 2020 • Liège depot office P201210 #coronavirus Report FNRS in figures What the experts say Apocalypse? Virtual commissions
EDITORIAL 01 #CORONAVIRUS 02 REPORT APOCALYPSE 04 “Revelations”. Introduction to the apocalyptic literary genre 06 Why do we enjoy pretending it’s the apocalypse? 08 An inexorable demographic decline? 10 The theory of the great replacement or the obsession with foreigners 12 Collapsology: explaining the term 14 Viruses: from animals to humans 16 Vaccines and antibiotics: strategies at risk? 18 Epidemics: the fear of the apocalyptic scenario? 20 Biodiversity wall threatens to collapse 22 Insect swarms: the weapon of yesterday, the scourge of today 24 Fires in Australia: the beginnings of the apocalypse? 26 How Man tries to avoid a meteorite destroying the world 28 The final explosion 30 COMMISSIONS, WHAT NEXT? 32 THE FNRS IN FIGURES 34 UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS 36 - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 FNRS.news is published by the Fund for An electronic version of FNRS.news is Contributors to this issue: Scientific Research - FNRS. available at www.fnrs.news. Madeleine Cense, Christian Du Brulle, Marie- The reproduction of published articles Publisher: Véronique Halloin Françoise Dispa, Henri Dupuis, Lauranne is not permitted, except with the prior Secretary-General, rue d’Egmont 5 - Garitte, Céline Husson, Julie Luong, Sylvie agreement of the Fund for Scientific 1000 Brussels. Paelman, Céline Rase, Frédéric Soumois, Research - FNRS and reference to their Laurent Zanella. Editor in Chief: Éric Winnen source. Editorial Assistant: Céline Rase Acknowledgements: The editorial team Production: www.chriscom.eu would like to thank those who contributed to fnrs.news@frs-fnrs.be the writing of the articles and to the creation of the illustrations. 2
EDITORIAL Science: on the other side of the crisis! Whether we want it or not, whether initiatives deployed in Wallonia and It is therefore necessary to repeat we accept it or not, times have Brussels to combat the COVID-19 and assert the following once again: changed. Within a few weeks, a new pandemic and its consequences on in the face of the magnitude of this form of chaos has unsettled our lives, health, society and the economy. This crisis, in the face of other crises that individually and collectively, making site was designed and developed by we often approach with too much uncertainties even more tangible. the FNRS, on the initiative of the Royal recklessness, in the face of the lies Without really knowing what this Academy of Medicine and the Royal that maintain the most dangerous post-crisis period, which is only Academy of Sciences, Letters and Fine beliefs and ideologies, science, just beginning, holds in store, there Arts, supported by the universities of more than ever, must be defended, is nevertheless a gradual return to the Wallonia-Brussels Federation and supported, considered in its rightful “normal” activity. This normalisation, the Biowin competitiveness cluster. place and, above all, funded in line both anticipated and worrying, cannot Since the beginning of this crisis, with the barrage of threats we face. erase our questions and fears. Rather, a large number of researchers, in Without awareness of these crises, it must remind us, once again, of the particular from the FNRS, have also without conviction of its importance, fundamental and decisive role of been approached by the media for science will be disarmed and scientific research in dealing with it. their expertise. By issuing measured, powerless, and humanity will be in During this period, there was no balanced and responsible opinions, ruins. interruption of the activities of the they have played several essential FNRS as a whole. On the contrary! The roles: an educational role vis-à- Véronique Halloin, administration has pursued all of its vis the general public, an expert Secretary-General missions, the Board of Directors has role in political decision-making of the F.R.S.-FNRS taken all possible flexibility measures processes, and an enlightening role by with regard to researchers and highlighting certain unknown aspects applicants, the Scientific Commissions of the crisis’ impacts and future (for the call for “Scholarships and consequences. And they have also, Fellowships”) took place on the inevitably, played an extraordinary role usual dates, via video conference, as promoters of science and scientific and obviously with the same level research as we conceive it at the of quality and confidentiality FNRS: free research, characterised by requirements, and other juries were requirements of transparency, data held in the context of “Prizes and sharing, exchange of experiences, Endowments” activities. With a sense but also and above all disinterested of urgency, faced with the pandemic, fundamental research, which is both the FNRS has also provided additional long-term and forward-looking. funds, financed from donations and private bequests, for Urgent Research Credits (CUR) and Exceptional Research Projects (PER), which will be allocated shortly. Also, a fund-raising campaign has been launched to appeal to the generosity of the public to help scientists fight against coronavirus. Research activities have continued, even though they have been - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 impeded by the closure of labs, the inaccessibility of libraries and the impossibility of travel and missions abroad. Yet in some areas, directly or indirectly affected by the pandemic, some research has been particularly dynamic, fruitful and visible. The website www.covid19-wb.be is a perfect example of this, making public the inventory of hundreds of research projects, expertise and business 1 CREDIT: HUGUES DEPASSE
# C O R O NAV I R U S What the experts say With Marius Gilbert and Guillaume Grignard They have become points of reference. During the long period of lockdown and management of the coronavirus pandemic, scientists, including many FNRS researchers, provided precise analyses that supported comprehension and action on the part of citizens and authorities. Written press interviews, appearances on television, advice to political authorities: they played a crucial role. What was the role of scientific discussion, how did the experts make it audible to the general public and what will remain of it in the future? Marius Gilbert and Guillaume Grignard provide an account and analysis. you have to be precise without always having the framework to be so. So the T he last months have forced the useful in the media than in his lab, and epidemiologist set himself two rules for impromptu meeting of three this is how he gradually stood out as an communicating: accepting the limits of worlds: that of scientists, that indispensable expert, the subject of the his knowledge and setting boundaries for of the media and that of politicians. headline “Beacon in the Belgian night of the interviews. “It is important to distinguish “Unprecedented networking”, observes coronavirus” in Le Soir, in mid-March. between categories of information and Guillaume Grignard, FNRS Research attaching a graduated level of confidence to them when presenting them to the Fellow in political sciences at ULB, “but quite successful”. For the specialists From communication public. There are reliable data, which are called to the fore, including FNRS Senior to becoming a star the subject of a broad scientific consensus, there are credible data, based on sets Research Associate Marius Gilbert, the It is by hitting the right tone that Marius of assumptions, and there are data that communication challenge was as colossal Gilbert won the trust of journalists, - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 remain unknown, which are the subject as it was essential: “As an epidemiologist, I viewers and politicians. And therein of speculation and are then subject to know that containing an epidemic depends lies the complexity of expertise in divergent analyses – there is nothing more on the adoption of certain behaviours by the media: “You need to provide short confusing for the population than multi- the entire population. However, the public answers to complex questions, which is faceted communication. To remain credible, can only buy into such disruption to their very different for us from our scientific you need to have the intellectual honesty to habits if they understand precisely what is practice”, he notes. “As researchers, we acknowledge that there are uncertainties or at stake. While official communication was are used to communicating with peers that we simply do not know. ” It is with this initially very limited, I decided to occupy a and drawing on a wealth of common in mind that Marius Gilbert takes the time role that should not remain empty. ” From knowledge. As teachers, we introduce to prepare his interaction with journalists. as early as February, the researcher complexity and present concepts gradually “I try to have a clear view of the questions 2 was convinced that he would be more as the discourse develops. ” In the media, that will be asked and I suggest the names
Epiphenomenon anthropologists or political scientists in this crisis, on television in any case, which A meeting of different worlds, therefore. dominates the media world”, regrets An ephemeral marriage? “Probably. The Guillaume Grignard. ” On the other hand, omnipresence of scientific discussion in they are widely read; these researchers the media is an epiphenomenon linked in the human sciences have never written to periods of crisis”, explains Guillaume so many opinion pieces as during the Grignard. “We saw this at the time of the lockdown – spontaneous, unprovoked terrorist attacks in 2016 or, more recently, discussion... “We found ourselves in an at the time of the fire at Notre-Dame de unprecedented situation in which everyone Paris. Terrorism and cathedral experts were wanted to react, all needing to express mobilised in numbers before returning themselves on equally fundamental to the shadows. ” The same observation aspects of the lockdown: teleworking, the Marius Gilbert, FNRS Senior applies to politics: “It is only in crisis psychological impact, the organisation Research Associate, SpELL, ULB situations that the government needs to of the entrepreneurial world, etc.” Since surround itself with experts”, states Marius February, not a day has passed without Gilbert. “The financial crisis, the terrorist the social networks of the FNRS relaying attacks or this epidemic are all contexts that the expertise or opinion of its grant of colleagues when points for analysis do required short-circuiting long-term science holders and fellows: researchers in life not seem to fall within my remit. ” to rely on immediate expertise. ” Does sciences, but also in psychology, labour this mean that the opinion of scientists law, climatology, politics, sociology, In this way, invited several evenings a counts less outside of crises? That philosophy, legal sciences, history, etc. week into the living rooms of locked- without a crisis, there is no need? That we They have all given food for thought to down Belgians, Marius Gilbert ended should not aim to listen to scientists in a millions of Belgians. Thank you to all of up being part of their daily routines. structured manner? “I think we should… them. And there is also some hype. “But it that there are many issues at stake”, Marius is low-level”, he tempers, modest and Céline Rase Gilbert replies. And that, without becoming almost uncomfortable: his photo on a technocratic state, the consultation of the front page of Paris Match, the experts always makes sense. ” flattering caricatures of Kroll and Vadot, the t-shirts depicting his face, the passionate comments on Facebook and Which experts? the sharing of his very popular epidemic It is still necessary to determine which curves on Twitter, are all evidence that experts to call upon. Here Marius Gilbert the phenomenon of becoming a star concedes, for example, that in such a proceeds rapidly. It has reached the point crisis, his expertise allows him to define that when the epidemiologist appears the epidemiological constraints, but that less on TV, viewers worry and enquire on other issues related to the lockdown, with the RTBF about his state of health. many other scientists, if not all citizens, have things to say. Freedom of thought This is also the main criticism heard We then move on to phase two of Marius about the “Lockdown exit group”: it Gilbert’s involvement. When he agreed, consists mainly of experts in health and following a telephone call from the Prime the economic sphere, thus reflecting Minister, to join the Group of Experts the very strong dominance of medical responsible for the Exit Strategy (GEES), the sciences among the scientific disciplines researcher placed greater restrictions on on show in the media. “We have heard himself. Firstly, because deciphering the very little from sociologists, philosophers, situation for the media is time-consuming and energy-intensive. Secondly, because “ “when you are involved in a decision, I feel that it is no longer my role to comment on it”, he explains. This collaboration with the political world was a “very big In a crisis like this, we all navigate - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 responsibility” but, once again, it was not by sight. All of us – politicians, something you turn down. In short, this is journalists and the general public part of “service to the community”, in line – need beacons that guide us. We with his mission as an FNRS researcher. need experts. We were looking for “And I must say that I really tested the scientists who know how to use freedom of expression that we enjoy as plain language and who do not researchers and academics. We are not exaggerate or minimise. We found afraid of displeasing a minister and losing them. our jobs. I believe that it is valuable for us, Julie Morelle, RTBF journalist but also for politics and therefore for society as a whole, to have representatives whose Guillaume Grignard, FNRS freedom of thought is guaranteed. ” Research Fellow, CEVIPOL, ULB 3
REPORT Apocalypse? 11:58 p.m. It is two minutes to midnight. Scientists from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (including 15 Nobel Prize-winners) have delivered their annual conclusions on the time we have left until the apocalypse: according to this conceptual clock, created at the beginning of the Cold War to warn of the danger of nuclear weapons, humanity has only two minutes left to live. The hand has moved dangerously close to midnight this year – midnight signalling the end of the world – given how the threats of climate change and nuclear war are endangering the Earth. The Doomsday Clock was set at 11:58 p.m. in early 2020. That was before the coronavirus crisis. Since then, the COVID-19 pandemic has occurred, which has given the whole planet the feeling of going through something from a work of fiction. The lockdown has provided a more specific idea of what this really means: the Earth is exhausted and humanity is falling apart. Scientists are the least surprised since they provide regular warnings: the human race is faced with dangers that are often caused by it. Burning forests, depletion - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 of natural resources, loss of biodiversity, insect swarms, epidemics, declining birth rates: 20 FNRS researchers shed light here on bleak scenarios from the past and for the near and distant future. They recall that the end of the world has been in the making since the dawn of time and, each in their own field, consider the following question: is our civilisation doomed? Is it too late to move the hands back from midnight? 4
R E P O R T A P O C A LY P S E “Revelation” Introduction to the apocalyptic literary genre by Baudouin Decharneux T In collaboration with: raditionally, it is considered that visions/revelations that are not directly between the 2nd century BC and understood by the visionary who receives the 1st century AD, the apocalyptic them and, consequently, they require an genre appeared in veterotestamentary interpreter (often an angel) who explains and intertestamentary literature. From to him or her the meaning they convey. the Greek apokalypsis “unveiling” or Thus, the apocalyptic genre begins at “revelation”, the idea of apocalypse, a time when the idea of the drying up originating from the Christian tradition, of prophetic inspiration was spreading: suggests that a specific message has as if, exhausted by the test of time, or “ been given to a person (a visionary) in by a change in temporality, the voice of order for him or her to attest to events the prophets had fallen silent, while a that have occurred or are yet to occur last generation took over, aware of the imminence of the end of time and its If we take the most and have remained secret for the most intrinsic weakness. part. The theme of the little book that common definition, we the visionary eats as if to incorporate Texts generally considered to be will consider apocalypses the Scriptures seems to suggest that he apocalypses therefore share a number of as literature taking the had access to “God’s hidden agenda”; a specific traits that distinguish them from form of a revelation, with revelation that, at first, is sweet as honey, other literary genres. If we take the most then creates bitterness in the insides. The common definition, we will consider the - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 a narrative framework, eschatological dimension, mythological- apocalypses as “literature presenting itself in which a revelation symbolic narration revealing the end of in the form of a revelation, with a narrative is passed on by an time, is predominant; these poetic texts, framework, in which a revelation is passed supported by powerful symbolic images, on by an otherworldly being to a human otherworldly being to recipient, revealing a transcendent reality often mysterious and enigmatic, are a human recipient, infused with epic inspiration that shakes that is both temporal, insofar as it foresees revealing a transcendent up literary conventions. eschatological salvation, and spatial, insofar as it involves another, supernatural world”. reality. It is important to note that the This definition can certainly be discussed apocalyptic genre, a later incarnation in depth, but it considerably underpins 6 of the prophetic genre, involves the majority of recent studies.
“The fact that the apocalyptic genre, with its visions and predictions, especially attributed to Paul of Tarsus or Peter, are its political issues, as enlightening as it of the end of time, apocalyptic texts. The various evangelical is with regard to the theological-political can give meaning texts concerned prophesise about the intentionality of the writers, does not to lived experience, destruction of the Temple, the return explain, for example, the choice of form of the Son of Man and the symbolism or even the spiritual scope of this type of especially in times of of the fig tree; the letters refer to the writing. Cross-referencing certain passages crisis, explains the appearance of the Saviour, the suffering from these narratives with the data success of this means of Christ and his triumph (Paul), as well gleaned by contemporary anthropology, as the punishment of the wicked and the for example on possession states (the of expression. rewarding of the righteous (Peter). These connection to exorcism and adorcism), various passages show that we are in the can also be fruitful, especially if we bear in presence of a literary genre in its own mind that exorcisms were part of the daily right, perhaps linked to preaching, which life of certain early Christian communities. was widespread in the early Christian From a literary point of view, apocalyptic communities. These apocalyptic texts are frequently narratives are always fascinating because placed under the authority of a Among all the texts considered to be they implement a multitude of symbols, prestigious figure from the past who apocalyptic, the Apocalypse of John is mysterious words and secret signs, which is beyond reproach because of the the main source relating to the figure of are a form of esotericism (so language high scriptural reputation he or she Jesus. The first part of the text (the letters reserved for insiders). These texts, enjoys (Apocalypses of Adam, Abraham, sent to the seven communities), which somewhere between fear and fascination, Enoch, Moses, etc.). For the Ancients, can be described as ecclesiological, does raise questions to the point of having it was less a process of falsification of not belong to an apocalyptic source as occupied a central place in iconography. memory than the desire to show that such. It has been integrated into visions An example of this is the multiple such closeness to the divine was only that are arranged on a level that is still representations of apocalyptic visions that conceivable on the part of an Ancient the subject of scientific debate among adorn Romanesque and Gothic churches endowed with an indisputable spiritual exegetes. It should be noted that nominal and cathedrals. aura. Thus, historical criticism refers quotations from the figure of Jesus are Baudouin Decharneux1 to pseudepigrapha (writings placed rare in Revelations, which prefers to use under a pseudonym). Finally, from a titles, qualifications and symbols, and methodological point of view, the main therefore proceed using allusions and categories that help us to read and analogies: Christ, prince of the kings understand biblical texts (propheticism, of the earth, the faithful witness, the apocalyptic, stories, hymns, etc.) firstborn of the dead, the Son of Man, the essentially have a heuristic value. It is First and Last, the Living One, etc. This examination and its dynamics that prevail non-exhaustive list includes the main in terms of research, not stereotypical references to the figure of Jesus, and responses. each of the verses concerned can be the subject of a multitude of interpretations, The fact that the apocalyptic genre, with meaning it has heuristic value because it its visions and predictions, especially questions the methodology implemented of the end of time, can give meaning to by the author (or the authors). It is the lived experience, especially in times of whole question of the relationship of crisis, explains the success of this means Jesus to time (cyclical or not), but also of expression. Thus, the Byzantine world of his Churches in relation to their own of the 6th and 7th centuries was marked temporality that is addressed here, from by an intensification of eschatological an eschatological and soteriological expectations: the dramatic events of the perspective. 7th century – the Persian conquest of Historical-critical research has strongly Jerusalem, then the liberation of the city, emphasised the Sitz im Lebem, the - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 and once again the conquests, by Arabs epochality, of apocalyptic texts. It this time with the gradual establishment audouin Decharneux, FNRS B is clear that the wars against the of a Muslim power – gave rise to rich Senior Research Associate, CIERL, Hellenistic kingdoms and the reign of apocalyptic literature, both Jewish and ULB, member of the Letters and the Hasmoneans (164 BC), the Roman Christian. Moral and Political Sciences class protectorate in Judea that led to armed of the Royal Academy of Belgium The Apocalypse of John is certainly the conflict and the destruction of Jerusalem, only text considered to be an apocalypse and the early persecutions of Christians, in New Testament (canonical) literature; were major historical events that partly however, critics consider that several explain the success they met and the 1. This text was reviewed and passages of the gospels of Mark, hopes they gave rise to. However, the expanded by Guillaume Dye, Matthew and Luke, and the epistles connection with a historical period and whom I would like to thank. 7
Why do we enjoy pretending it’s the R E P O R T A P O C A LY P S E apocalypse? with Fanny Barnabé T Slaughtering here was no need to wait for A crisis-related dangerous zombies, video games to make the end of resurgence the world a promising subject, surviving in a hostile and literature and cinema in particular “This resurgence is due in particular to the environment, saving have already made good use of it. To emergence of new ″gameplay″ (a game transpose our societal fears and our your own skin or that mechanics), that of the ″battle royale″. It criticisms of self-destructive practices, is a game mode - mainly used in shooting of your loved ones as and to feed the metaphor of what games - in which 100 players are plunged the world is ending, will lead to our downfall, apocalyptic into a space and only one must survive. imagery, so that of the undead, mutants The genre is sometimes traced back to rebuilding a society, and planetary disasters, is a staple. “The DayZ, the development of which began etc. Video games theme of the apocalypse is an important in 2012, a world populated by zombies in have successfully motif of popular culture, and video games which players are thrown without supplies. have of course appropriated it”, notes They need to find weapons, medicine and appropriated the Fanny Barnabé, FNRS Postdoctoral food to survive. But the genre became entertaining aspects Researcher and member of the Liège popular in particular with the releases of PUBG and then Fortnite, in which 100 offered by the theme Game Lab at the ULiège Laboratory of players fight each other in a small space. Media and Mediation Studies. “For this, of the apocalypse. the game S.T.A.L.K.E.R. is fairly typical: This has revived the post-apocalyptic Of course, we have set in Chernobyl, it was released in 2007 genre”, explains the ULiège researcher. always loved to play and inspired by the 1979 film of the However, the game’s mechanics are not same name, itself taken from a science the only driver of this popularity. It is - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 at scaring ourselves. fiction novel published in 1972. ” What is also due to sociological factors. “It is a But these zombies more intriguing is that there has been genre that is always linked to anxieties and a resurgence, in recent years, in the fears deeply rooted in society. It crosses and post-apocalyptic all disciplines: cinema and literature have popularity of post-apocalyptic video worlds say much more games. Thus, Fallout, Fortnite, Minecraft, long echoed our anxieties. Its re-emergence about us than that. The Last of US, PUBG, Days Gone are is linked to the social crises we are particularly popular video game experiencing. Researcher Óliver Pérez- licences. Latorre argues that a re-emergence of the post-apocalyptic genre originated in the 2008 financial and economic crisis. It can 8 also now be fed by the anxiety about the
climate change crisis. In this regard, we note an evolution in zombie fiction: it gradually An area of freedom being represented with more empathy. It should be pointed out that, In the TV series ″The Walking Dead″, the It is a genre that fundamentally, a game creates a space survivors actually say ″We are the walking is always linked for freedom within the everyday world. dead″. Here, the zombie is no longer just the “It is a margin for manoeuvre that we open entity to be fought, but the natural disaster to anxieties and up in the space of reality. We see here with which one must learn to live, to rebuild fears deeply rooted the analogy with the notion of ″play″ in a society. So the genre is evolving alongside a mechanism, in the sense of a space of the collective fears and the images we have in society. Its re- freedom allowing the cogs to turn (analogy of the end of the world: nuclear war, climate emergence is linked developed in particular by philosopher change, pandemic, etc. There was also an Jacques Henriot). Do these types of games increase in sales of the game Plague Inc., a to the social crises promote awareness? Hard to say. On the pandemic simulation game, when Covid-19 we are experiencing. other hand, they have a cathartic or at arrived. ” least reassuring quality. In these games, we control the direction that events take. A game offers us the tools to create these The apocalypse: such spaces of freedom that do not exist in a practical subject Players more nimble reality. And that would certainly not exist in the context of the end of the world. ” Beyond societal trends, there is in in the event of a real Madeleine Cense particular a practical argument: end of the world themes perfectly match crisis? the requirements of video games. In looking at these games of survival, These are both gameplay and narrative resourcefulness and extreme moral requirements. “Since video games are an choices (“do I save my childhood friend interactive medium, you cannot do without or humanity? “, as in Life is Strange), player action. This is the concept of an the question of the effect on players action imperative (developed in particular inevitably arises. Through playing, do by researcher Sébastien Genvo). And this they sharpen their survival skills and explains that fiction that presuppose action can be much more easily adapted their ability to make choices that are as into video games. Of course, combat, crucial as they are complex? In short, are escape or survival are better suited to they training for real-life situations? “The them than nostalgia or melancholy. The question of the effect of video games on post-apocalyptic world is fairly easy to players has been around for a long time. It grasp because it is a setting with a pretext has always been asked, either negatively – for action: you fight either to gain your they were very quickly suspected of causing freedom, or to rebuild a society”, points out violence, without there being any consensus © Jean-Louis Wertz Fanny Barnabé. on the answer – or enthusiastically – they could facilitate learning or serve as training Fanny Barnabé, FNRS Post-apocalyptic worlds also have the big Postdoctoral Researcher, Liège advantage of being perfectly suited to for certain situations, which has also not been categorically proven. So, whether Game Lab, ULiège the storytelling method of video games. “In a video game, you do not know where post-apocalyptic games could be a training the player will go and, as a result, the story ground for ethical decisions... I doubt that told by the game cannot be completely making moral choices in a game can be linear. It is therefore fragmented and compared to making choices in reality distributed throughout the game. And this because video games are characterised as Games have a cathartic works well with apocalyptic worlds because entertaining and fictional environments, the player collects objects and messages in which the actions performed are ″fake″; or at least reassuring nature. We control the - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 here and there. This fragmentation of the these are game environments one of the narrative is easy to justify: you cannot have fundamental principles of which is that it access to the whole narrative because the is always possible to go back and make direction that events world is destroyed. It is therefore normal a different choice”, points out the Liège take and we create a for the narrative to be dispersed through Game Lab researcher. documents, recordings and objects”, she space of freedom for explains. And by using them, the player ourselves. can gradually reconstruct the story of what has or has not happened. This technique is not only specific to post- apocalyptic games, but it is particularly useful for them. 9
An inexorable R E P O R T A P O C A LY P S E demographic decline? with Thierry Eggerickx “Demographic decline is nothing new! ” For Thierry Eggerickx, FNRS Research Fellow at the UCLouvain Demographic Research Centre, it is rather the two centuries of rapid growth that we have just experienced that constitute “an anomaly, a parenthesis in the history of humanity”. O Three phases Individualisation ver the course of millennia, demographic change has been characterised by very low growth In the 19th century, in the context of For Thierry Eggerickx, the key factor rates, i.e. a small gap between otherwise a radical change in Western societies in the demographic transition is very high birth and mortality rates, – resulting from industrialisation, therefore the decline in the birth rate, with alternating peaks and period of urbanisation, development of means which occurred in Belgium, and more collapse “relating to the ″three scourges″: of transport, de-Christianisation, etc. specifically in Wallonia, in around 1875- famines, epidemics and wars”, explains 1880, in response in particular to the – the demographic transition began. Thierry Eggerickx. The objective of major economic depression of 1873- “This phenomenon is taking place in three the demographic system of ancient 1892. “This first major crisis in industrial phases. During the first period, between society triggered wait-and-see reflexes: populations was to ensure the survival of humanity by maintaining the balance 1800 and 1870-1880, mortality decreased there was no question of having children between the growth of the population while the birth rate remained high, resulting before knowing how the situation would and the available resources. Any threat to in strong population growth. In the second develop. Within a generation and without this balance led to the use of economic phase, from 1880 until the inter-war period, modern contraceptives, these populations strategies – land clearing, deforestation, fertility and birth rates began to decline, reduced their birth rate by half! And the - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 the development of activities parallel to but, since mortality continued to decline, same thing happened in the inter-war agriculture, the introduction of high-yield growth rates remained relatively high. And period, with fertility levels equivalent to crops, such as potatoes, etc. – but also the third phase is the one we are currently those of today: 1.8 children per woman. demographic strategies. “Above all, this experiencing in most Western countries, But the demographic transition is also the involved an increase in the marriage age including Belgium, with similarly low birth transition from an era in which the birth for women to 26 or 27, or even 30 in the rate and marriage rate were subject to and mortality rates, and therefore low event of a serious crisis, but also permanent a kind of moral control by society to the or even negative growth rates in certain celibacy, imposed on a certain number current situation, in which birth rate norms, countries and regions. ” in particular the choice of the number of young women and young men through family, social and religious control. ” 10
Rather than advocating a reduction or even a ban on births, production and consumption of children and the age at which one has patterns should be changed. The polluters are them, are the result of individual choices, in competition with other options: education, not babies, but cars! career prospects, as well as the purchase of a house, a car, etc.” Lag effect Beginning in France at the end of the Retirement at 80 18th century, the decline in birth rate was This is especially the case since negative interrupted after the Second World War, growth and a decreasing birth rate can with the baby boom, before declining have negative effects on the functioning again more sharply in the 1970s. “It has of our societies. So, in a pay-as-you-go now extended to most countries on the pension system, such as in Japan and planet (even to sub-Saharan Africa, despite Korea, but also in France, Germany, and a lag effect). And neither the projections of Belgium, who will pay for pensions and the United Nations nor those of the Planning health care? “Japan, for example, which is Bureau in Belgium foresee its reversal. By today the country with the oldest population hierry Eggerickx, FNRS T 2050, the population is expected to decline on the planet, with 28% of its people aged Senior Research Associate, by at least 1% in 55 countries or regions, over 65 (compared with 19% in Belgium), GéDAP, UCLouvain 26 of which could experience a decrease plans to raise the retirement age to 70, or of at least 10%. In China, for example, the even 80 for those who wish it, in particular population is expected to decline by 31 civil servants. And, because pensions are From the bottom up million, or more than 2%.” clearly insufficient to live on, many older According to the Planning Bureau’s people are already forced to work, which projections, the population of Belgium, Cars or babies? partly blocks up the system, impeding young people’s access to employment. ” which today is 11,430,000, is expected to reach 12,700,000 in 2070. “For this Is this a good or bad thing? “For me, it to happen, the birth rate must not fall, is neither one nor the other. But this is obviously an important topic, consisting Immigration and also life expectancy must continue to increase at its current rate (with an increase of many issues. In 2017, the manifesto If Belgium is not there yet, it is not only of 0.2-0.3 years per year). However, the of the World Scientists’ Warning to because its birth rate, although lower current, particularly worrying, context of Humanity alliance, published in the journal than the generation replacement level an environmental and health crisis is not BioScience and signed by more than 15,000 (2.1 children/woman), is still relatively conducive to procreation. Moreover, a researchers from 184 countries, deemed “high” (1.7 children/woman, compared to recent study showed that increases in life population growth the main factor behind 1.3 for Japan and 1.1 for Korea), but also expectancy vary widely across social groups environmental and societal threats: the because three-quarters of its population and that social inequalities in relation to more human beings there are, the greater growth is due to immigration, to which mortality have increased in recent decades. the number of consumers, cars, pesticides, Japan and Korea are firmly closed. For example, comparing the 5% of the etc. And, in fact, a recent study showed “Belgium has always needed migration, for population at the bottom of the social that, if we reach 1.5 children per woman, economic reasons: in the inter-war period, ladder with the 5% at the top results in a which corresponds to the "low scenario" when Belgians no longer wanted to go down difference in life expectancy of 14 years for of the United Nations, CO2 emissions will the mines, we ″imported″ Italians, North men and 10 for women! ” To secure our fall by 10% by 2055, and by 35% by 2100. Africans and Poles to do the work that the future, we must therefore move towards But these neo-Malthusian ideas are also Belgians no longer wanted. However, today, an egalitarian and multicultural society severely criticised: rather than advocating many Belgians see immigrants as a threat, that rejects exclusion, ghettoisation a reduction or even a ban on births, even though they are essential in the hotel and marginalisation. It remains to be production and consumption patterns and catering sector, the care sector, the seen whether the change in philosophy should be changed. The polluters are not construction sector, etc." required by this evolution is within our babies, but cars! ” - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 reach… Marie-Françoise Dispa “ The current, particularly worrying, context of an environmental and health crisis is not conducive to procreation. 11
The theory of the great replacement or the R E P O R T A P O C A LY P S E obsession with foreigners with François Gemenne and Jean-Philippe Schreiber Among alarmist scenarios, there is one that, peddled by the extreme right, feeds violence that is no longer theoretical: the gradual replacement of the European population by an immigrant population and, in the process, the decline of “Western values”. Two FNRS researchers, Jean- Philippe Schreiber, a historian, and François Gemenne, a political scientist, analyse the origin and drivers of this discourse, which is admittedly Historical enemies euphemistic in Belgium but nevertheless Formulated by the French philosopher Renaud Camus in 2010, the term “great dangerous in a context where, with an epidemic replacement” is recent, but the concept is crisis in mind, foreigners are quickly regaining an old one. “The rejection of Islam, which has been at work for some twenty years, their historical status of a “stain” on the national draws as much from the current geopolitical identity. situation in Europe as from its history”, analyses Jean-Philippe Schreiber, FNRS Research Director at ULB. “The collective unconscious remembers the wars waged by the Ottoman Empire in the 16th and 17th I t is one of the most common second element is cultural or religious: centuries against a Europe that developed ruminations in history: the fear that a “This theory combines fear of demographic a fear of the creeping Islamisation of foreign population will imperceptibly decline with fear of a disintegration of Christian society”. Basically, Islamophobia work its way into our society, like a Western values and culture”, observes the is fuelled by the same tradition of fear that fuels anti-Semitism. “Since the end - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 poison, and transform it both biologically political scientist. Behind this discourse (with respect to race) and in terms of lies a conspiratorial dimension: it is of the Middle Ages, our Western societies values. The so-called “great replacement” thought that the replacement process is have marginalised Jews, vectors of change, theory consists of attributing this deliberate. Politicians and scientists – the making them scapegoats for serious intention to Muslims, based on two globalised intellectual elites – are thought economic, social and health crises. For arguments. One is demographic: “In to be organising the phenomenon example, during the great plague of the 14th most European countries, we are seeing a because they need a “replaceable” man century, Jews were accused of poisoning decline in birth rates, explains François of the people, stripped of any ethnic and wells and introducing the disease. Whether Gemenne, FNRS Research Associate at cultural specificity, who can be moved it involved filth or vermin, the Jews were ULiège, while at the same time these states on the chessboard at will according to responsible for all the misfortunes of the are recording substantial immigration from political and economic interests. world and had to be eliminated. Hence 12 North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. ” The expulsions and massacres that have taken
You cannot counter crisis linked to COVID-19 are likely to So, while identifying prejudices and irrational fears with reinforce this tendency that some already contradicting false allegations about have of switching to ″survivalist″ mode.” immigration is a necessary step, it is rational arguments. And the historian confirms: “In times of not enough to combat the popularity of crisis, democratic vulnerability increases, far-right theories, according to François resistant individuals become sensitive Gemenne, who believes that “we will also to social anxiety and believe extremist have to build a new narrative”. “We must discourse. Epidemics have often intensified propose a positive narrative showing that place throughout the modern era”, recalls the search for a scapegoat and the immigration is a structural transformation the historian. At the end of the 19th obsessive fear of foreigners”, notes Jean- of our societies that, by conducting it in century, racial and political anti-Semitism Philippe Schreiber. an organised way, we can make the most replaced theological and popular anti- of. ” This is a real challenge, which he will Semitism, and inspired the Nazi theorists From the figures to address at the start of the literary season with his next book “On a tous un ami noir”. of the following century. This then led to extermination. the narrative Céline Rase So what is the remedy for this evil? From words to actions Specialists can put forward scientific arguments against each of the arguments These fears, transformed into fantasies, of the great replacement: “It is today are therefore dangerous when actions estimated that immigration accounts for accompany the discourse. Thus, the only one-fifth of the growth of the European theory of the great replacement is more population: most of this growth is therefore catastrophic due to the scenarios it still due to birth rates, even though they engenders than the one it denounces. are in decline”, François Gemenne adds. Epidemics have often In Belgium, while it is expressed by a “Although the migration phenomenon is narrow section of the population which marked by peaks in the influx of refugees intensified the search sometimes does not even know its and dramatic images, the fact remains that for a scapegoat and name, which lets itself be persuaded refugees represent only around 10% of the obsessive fear of by certain journalists on French migrants and that international migration is television channels, this theory has little less directed towards Europe than towards foreigners. resonance in political circles. “This is other countries in sub-Saharan Africa. due to the fact that there are very few far- Finally, the theory is wrong to assume right ideologues in our country”, explains that the immigrant population maintains François Gemenne, who nevertheless the birth rate of its country of origin once notes the dangerous nature of this settled in Europe. ” And what about the discourse on an international level, “it’s annihilation of “our” Western civilisation? a real source of inspiration for violence”. “Talking about a decline in values is… a “The need to protect Western civilisation value judgement”, the scientist replies. from foreign invasion is an idea that “Societies change over time and history, permeates the writings of far-right terrorists cultural practices are transformed by throughout the world”. The manifesto of a series of developments – look at how Brenton Tarrant, the perpetrator of the the internet has impacted our practices Christchurch massacre in New Zealand and relationships! The fear of the great in March 2019, is actually entitled “The replacement conveys an imaginary ideal Great Replacement”. A few months later, past, a kind of nostalgia for a bygone time Jean-Philippe Schreiber, the killer in El Paso, Texas, used the that never actually existed. ” FNRS Research Director, CIERL, same theory as inspiration to commit But putting forward figures and facts ULB his “hate crime” against Mexicans. In the United States and Australia, the grand is not enough. “Irrespective of the replacement theory has taken a broader reality, the imagination is more powerful. and more extreme turn denouncing a Deconstruction discourses do not work genuine “white genocide” perpetrated very well because they do not use the from time to time by “invaders.” same rhetorical register”, the historian observes. “You cannot counter irrational - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 In the future, this discourse could inspire fears with rational arguments”, agrees more people because circumstances the political scientist. Especially since could strengthen it. “There may be a kind statistics, which are often national, do not of natural connection between theories reflect the heterogeneity of the realities of collapse and the theory of the great of populations. “You could assert that replacement”, the political scientist in Belgium, only 16% of the population analyses. “Pushed to the limit of their consists of immigrants. You would be right. political logic, theories of collapse involve But the father who lives in Saint-Josse, and withdrawal into oneself, identity seclusion who sees that his children’s class is made up François Gemenne, and rejection of the outside, which is seen of 85% immigrants, will not believe you. ” FNRS Research Associate, Hugo as a threat. The climate crisis or the health Observatory, ULiège 13
Collapsology: R E P O R T A P O C A LY P S E explaining the term with Chloé Deligne “C ollapsology is a term proposed These questions are often traced back to While humans aspire by Pablo Servigne and Raphaël the publication of the Meadows Report of Stevens in their book “Comment the Club of Rome, The Limits to Growth, to peace and security, tout peut s’effondrer” published in 2015. It in 1972, but recent historical research has historical and even is based on the English word , ″collapse″. considerably revisited this “origin story” of prehistoric societies According to these authors, collapsology concerns about the sustainability of the is “a transdisciplinary exercise to study capitalist economic model. Indeed, from seem doomed to the collapse of our industrial societies″, the early decades of the establishment of endure political, social, explains Chloé Deligne, historian and the industrial capitalist system in the 19th FNRS Research Associate at ULB. century, voices were raised in concern about economic or ecological or to denounce the effects of this model on crises. Are today’s crises “only” cyclical Dual temporality human lives and environments. These voices have today been put in context, in particular This proposal is part of a body of work through the research of Serge Audier phenomena, like the that questions how and why societies and Jean-Baptiste Fressoz. Yet the work growth rings of a tree, collapse. This work is written by authors, on collapse is also part of a long period of fundamental examination of human or a sign of the end of most often American, English or more recently French or Belgian, and Western societies with respect to their own future. our time, as predicted by in any case, and is the result of the worry This recurring and old examination has “collapsology”? and anxiety caused by the accelerated been fuelled by the production of myths, deterioration of terrestrial environments, apocalyptic narratives and catastrophic a process that has been underway for predictions that serve as reflections or nearly two centuries (loss of biodiversity, deterrents for the societies that create them, global warming, acidification of the and must lead them to adopt new moral - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 oceans, soil impoverishment, etc. behaviours. ” resulting from massive pollution, the ever-increasing consumption of fossil fuels, the overexploitation of certain Four points of resources, deforestation). criticism “This work is part of a dual temporality. In For the historian, however, there is the short time of ″our era″ that, since the no moral lesson intrinsic to what is 1970s, has revived old questions about incorrectly seen as the end of time. “We the limitations of a socio-economic model can criticise this concept of collapse. One: that became hegemonic in the 20th century, it adopts an anthropocentric point of 14 based on the exploitation of fossil fuels. view, i.e. one that is only interested in the
The work on collapse is part of a long period of fundamental examination of human societies with respect to their own future. This recurring examination has been fuelled by the production of myths and is established over several generations is catastrophic predictions not that of an epidemic that can have a radical impact over one or two seasons. The that serve as reflections or question ultimately arises of whether the deterrents for the societies very concept of collapse is useful. Should that create them. preference not be given to more precise terms, such as destructuring, disintegration, fragmentation or disappearance, to be clearly described in each situation observed? ” and that people have wanted to apply The choice of to the entire list of classic ″collapses″ narratives (Mayan civilisation, Roman Empire, Indus Valley, etc.), is at the very least reductive. Here the researcher reveals an Numerous studies, highlighting the underlying mechanism: “Is the concept diversity of climate impacts depending on of “collapse” not rather the cornerstone the responses of societies, are constantly of new apocalyptic narratives that “tempering” the enthusiasm of climate neo- should encourage us to adopt new moral determinists. In other words, for example, collapse of human societies. Two: a strong behaviours? Throughout history, there a drought of similar intensity will not have have been profound transformations that the same effects depending on whether the tendency to universalise the perspective, have led to the disappearance of complex society that endures it is highly hierarchical which is mainly that of a Western middle socio-political systems. Various examples or more egalitarian”. class. Among collapsologists, the thinking is haunt our imaginations: the disappearance often on a global-world scale and it sees a “Ultimately, it is absurd to think that of the Mayan civilisation, of the prosperous homogeneous, undifferentiated humanity. ″everything″ can collapse. There is no such societies of the Indus Valley or of the Roman The subject is an abstract and globalising thing as a clean slate in history. Despite Empire. While these ″disappearances″ “we” that leaves no room for differences many threats to our way of life and the occupy our imagination more, this is also between societies in the north or south, ruins left behind by two centuries of due to the narratives we have chosen to east or west, or between classes and social extractive industrial capitalism, many things make of them. Hundreds more historical groups within societies themselves. In can nevertheless be reinvented. But it is cases could be added to the list. The fall other words, in their vision of “collapse”, important to ask ourselves what we want to of this Chinese dynasty or that African collapsologists display a glaring disdain, continue or reinvent and, on the contrary, kingdom, the destruction of Native American even culpable blindness, with respect to what we want to abandon, what we want societies, the disappearance of the Mongol social inequalities and asymmetric or to take care of and are ready to fight for, Empire, etc. And if these narratives have not domination/exploitation relationships. and what we want to do without. These are managed to find a place in our ″collapse″ Three: a “naturalisation” of the phenomena choices and not laws of nature”. imagination, it is because they have not of decline, i.e. their assimilation to the laws been presented as narratives of collapse. Frederic Soumois of nature to the detriment of a detailed This illustrates the fact that these narratives analysis of the social and political dynamics are not chosen or constructed at random; implemented in times of crisis. Four: an they must correspond to what one wants to approximation in the very definition of the see or demonstrate. ” concept of collapse, which leads dynamics with very different drivers being placed on “In this respect, the recent enthusiasm for explanations on global warming (a - FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020 an equal footing”. reflection the concerns of our time) that “The definition of Servigne and Stevens have come mainly from earth sciences, is unusable because it loses sight of a fundamental concept, that of the scale of analysis (what space? what time?). Similarly, it ignores the variable interactions between socio-political systems, economic systems and ecological systems, etc. and These are choices and the different temporalities: the timing of Chloé Deligne, climate change is not the timing of a bad not laws of nature. Research Associate, harvest; the timing of demography that SOCIAMM, ULB 15
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