FLEET ELECTRIFICATION CHALLENGES - November 4, 2020
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FLEET ELECTRIFICATION
CHALLENGES
November 4, 2020
INTRODUCTIONS
Duke Kuvaas, PE Ryan Vraa, EIT
Project Manager/Senior Electrical Engineer Electrical Engineer
Electrification of Everything
40
►The potential
1.43%
45,000+
Gigawatt-hours Technologies
(GWH)
Assessed
for
(NOTE)
electrification is
vast, but it’s
important to
understand
where to focus
and why. Disclaimer. Real utility example assessment that is representative of mid-size to large IOUs across the country.
Ranking technologies based on potential GWh, barriers and load
manageability to help set direction
Long Haul Trucking
Light Duty EV *
Water Heating
Potential GWh
Space Heating
Space Heating
Boilers/Steam
Tractors
Water Heating Private Aircraft Data Centers
Grain Dryers
Gas Stoves & Ovens Reefer Trailers
Loaders/Excavators
Gas Clothes Dryer
Delivery Vehicles
Heat Treatment School Buses Gas Stoves & Ovens
Combines Irrigation Pumps
Casting Lawn Appliances
Forklifts Yard Hostlers
Garbage Trucks
Commuter Buses
E-motorcycle
Electronic Billboards
ATV’s
Belt Loaders
Indoor Cannabis Growing
Diesel Backup Generators Aircraft Tugs
Utility Service Vehicles
Baggage Tractor
E-Bicycle
Electric GPU
Large shapes have better load manageability than small shapes
Fueling Trucks
Public E-mobility
*Vehicle classes described in the appendix
Weaker Barriers
Disclaimer. Real utility example assessment that is representative of mid-size to large IOUs across the country.
Phased Infrastructure Buildout Plan
Customer
needs
Data ownership & Multitude of
stakeholders
►Fleet
utilization
Upfront capital
electrification
Interoperability
investment
between systems
is a complex Securing
end point Market & business
ecosystem to connectivity Model evolution
navigate. Owner- Site
OEMs
Network Electric
Operator Hosts Provider Utility
Electrification Impacts
►There is
disruption
on both Impacts to the electric utility Impacts to fleet owner / operators
sides of the Stress testing business processes &
practices
New fueling paradigm creates uncertainty
electric Evolving customer needs pushing utilities
to rethink customer service
Costly infrastructure that is nascent and
still evolving
Operational limitations impact ability to
meter.
move people or goods
Requires utilities to work across functional
areas, not always easy Impacts to a well-developed, streamlined
supply chain
USPS – FLEET ELECTRIFICATION
First Generation Fueling Station
America’s first gas station, St. Louis, 1905 (MOhistory.org)Next Generation Fueling Station
America 1920’s gas station (vintage.es)USPS – CURRENT FLEET
- 65% beyond their design life (139,750)
Fleet of nearly 215,000 - 74% Long Live Vehicles (LLVs) (159,100)
vehicles - 83% of LLVs operate in an urban environment
(132,053)
Intends to replace at least 160,000 vehicles in the
next 10 years
Proposes to roll out 12,000 electric vehicles
annually over the next seven years totaling 84,000USPS – NEXT GENERATION VEHICLE DELIVERY
- 18-20 year expected lifetime
In 2015, USPS’s Next Generation Delivery - 1500lb payload
Vehicle (NGDV) RFP stated the following - 330 – 440 ft3 cargo space
requirements: - 70 miles of minimum range over the course of
eight hours
Among the list of final candidates is the Workhorse W-15
electric truckUSPS – WORKHORSE W-15
► Typical design specifications were used
to estimate the use, charging and
battery capacity.
► Parameters assumed:
• 35-mile average mail route
• 60kWh battery size and 80-mile full
charge range
• 0.75% annual degradation
• 8-hour level 2 charging duration
• 7.5kW level 2 peak demand
• 1.2-hour DC fast charging (DCFC)
duration
• 50kW DC fast charging peak demand
• 6pm-6am charging period chargedUSPS – NATIONAL IMPACT
Figure 1. Major USPS Employee Locations Throughout the United States
Category Unit 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
New Vehicles [#] 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000
Accumulative [#] 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 60,000 72,000 84,000
Vehicles
Annual load [MWh] 114,975 229,950 344,925 459,900 574,875 689,850 804,825
Table 1. National Impact of USPS EV ImplementationUSPS – MAX PEAK DEMAND BY CHARGER TYPE
►National peak
demand would
increase from 0 to
600 MW with Level 2
charging.
►Peak demand would
increase from 0 to
4.2 GW with DCFC.
Figure 2. Max National Peak Demand by Charger TypeUSPS – AVERAGE PEAK DEMAND BY CHARGER TYPE ►Average hourly charge potential based on the charge period 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. ►Showcases the minimum demand which must be fulfilled. ►Numbers will vary between this and that of max peak demand. Figure 3. Average Peak Demand by Charger Type
USPS – MIDWEST IMPACT
Figure 4. Major USPS Employee Locations Throughout the MidwestUSPS – MIDWEST IMPACT
Category Unit 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
New Vehicles [#] 1324 1324 1324 1324 1324 1324 1324
Accumulative [#] 1324 2648 3972 5296 6620 7944 9268
Vehicles
Annual load [MWh] 12,686 25,371 38,057 50,742 63,428 76,113 88,799
Table 2. Midwest Impact of USPS EV Implementation
Category Unit 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
New Vehicles [#] 198 198 198 198 198 198 198
Accumulative [#] 198 396 594 792 990 1188 1386
Vehicles
Annual load [MWh] 1,897 3,794 5,691 7,588 9,845 11,383 13,280
Table 3. Minnesota Impact of USPS EV ImplementationUSPS – LOCALIZED PEAK DEMAND BY CHARGER TYPE
500,000 80,000
450,000
70,000
400,000
60,000
350,000
MAXIMUM PEAK DEMAND (KW)
MAXIMUM PEAK DEMAND (KW)
50,000
300,000
250,000 40,000
200,000
30,000
150,000
20,000
100,000
10,000
50,000
0 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Max Level 2 Peak Demand (kW) Max DCFC Peak Demand (kW) Max Level 2 Peak Demand (kW) Max DCFC Peak Demand (kW)
Figure 5. Max Local Peak Demand by Charger Type (Midwest – Left, Minnesota – Right)USPS – AVERAGE LOCALIZED DEMAND BY CHARGER TYPE
18,000 3,000
16,000
2,500
14,000
AVERAGE PEAK DEMAND (KW)
AVERAGE PEAK DEMAND (KW)
12,000 2,000
10,000
1,500
8,000
6,000 1,000
4,000
500
2,000
0 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Average Level 2 Peak Demand (kW) Average DCFC Peak Demand (kW) Average Level 2 Peak Demand (kW) Average DCFC Peak Demand (kW)
Figure 6. Average Local Demand by Charger Type (Midwest – Left, Minnesota – Right)WHAT’S NEXT? ►Potential electrified fleets ►Ports – both air and sea – hot spots ►Stakeholder inclusion
Utility Involvement
►Utilities must
decide where, Business
as
Usual
Advanced
Customer
Support
when, and
Disclaimer. Representative offerings by utilities.
how to Regulators /
Policy Makers
Customers Utility All Stakeholders
participate in • Are they pushing for a
carbon neutral or carbon
free future?
•
•
Will their needs differ
today vs tomorrow?
Does it differ across
•
•
Do we desire to be proactive
vs reactive?
Do we want to be viewed as
•
•
How to reduce barriers to
beneficial electrification?
How do we ensure that
or influence
an obstacle or enabler? customers transition
• Are they prioritizing industries? Use cases?
• Do we need press worthy smoothly & not end up in no
equitable solutions that • Does it differ across fleet
success stories? man’s land?
benefit all customers? size? • Do we want to be viewed as • Can wins in one area lead to
this journey.
advocating fuel switching? bigger ones somewhere else?Fleet electrification challenges
Emerging industry creates opportunity for stakeholders
Enablers Facility Limitations Or Accessibility
§ Limited consistent levers across jurisdictions that enable fleet § Constraints such as physical, electrical, grid capacity, operations,
electrification (policy, legislation, emission targets) especially in medium- staging
and heavy-duty
§ Identifying optimal sites for charging infrastructure (easement, access,
§ Grant funding can only go so far unless there is a compelling value power availability, etc.)
proposition (cost savings, emission reductions, sustainability targets, etc.)
§ Transitioning a facility while maintaining operations
Technology Collaboration Of Stakeholders
§ Lack of charging standardization across vehicle categories § Identifying customers ready for transportation electrification programs
and/or scaling
§ Equipment maturity and availability (nascent or limited)
§ Alignment of value propositions of all parties (fleet owners, OEMs, electric
§ Stated performance vs actual performance (environmentally utility, constituents, etc.) isn’t there yet
challenging conditions)
§ Proactive planning by and with all parties to achieve the common goal
Cost Vs Funding Value Proposition
§ Upfront cost of vehicles and fueling infrastructure are underestimated, § Infrastructure costs of total cost of ownership are often underestimated – can
especially at scale be significant at scale impacting savings
§ Limited funding for vehicles and charging infrastructure across jurisdictions § Value proposition may not be there for all fleet owners unless they value stack
(federal, state, local, utility programs) benefits (operational cost savings + emission reductions + renewable
integration +…. etc.)
§ Without enablers (mandates) or clear value proposition, adoption is
challenging without grants or incentivesELECTRIC UTILTIES
► Best practices to enable fleet electrification
Know & Educate Your Customers Develop Your Vision
§ Evaluate who, where, what, when, and why. § Understand where fleet fits and align your strategy with customer needs.
Take small bits of the apple.
§ Learn the nuances of their operations. It will help you understand the value
propositions of electrifying. § Know your levers (legislation, emission reduction mandates, etc.).
Proactive Planning Customer First Mentality
§ Identify your system limitations both today and the future based on § Help your customers help themselves. Extending yourself beyond
forecasted adoption. traditional relationship (education, consulting)
§ Refine planning and engineering standards to enable future EV (PV, and § Understand what matters to your customers so you can create educate and
BESS) capacity through BAU upgrades. create solutions that support them.
Support The Journey
Understand The Landscape § This is a marathon, not a sprint. You need to engage and support your
§ Expand your knowledge beyond charging and network providers (vehicles, customers through their entire journey.
charging, software, storage, etc.).
§ Recognize that your customers will be in a constant state of flux for 10+
§ Customers will approach you for help. Enhance the customer experience. years and align your processes to support
Build Your Coalition Minimize the Distractions
§ Assess your and your customer’s needs. Identify the gaps and fill with both § Keep it simple for your customers. There’s a lot of noise out there with
internal and external resources. managed charging, V2G, etc. While important, in some cases, for financial
viability, we need to focus on refueling vehicles to sustain operations.
§ Build your list of value, add stakeholders that can help you and your
customers.Sources ►https://about.usps.com/who-we-are/postal-history/ - retrieved 17 July 2019 ► https://www.uspsoig.gov/blog/no-more-day-rest-postal-package-delivery - retrieved 17 July 2019 ► https://www.trucks.com/2017/11/06/trucks-compete-next-usps-delivery-vehicle/ - retrieved 16 July 2019 ► https://www.greatbusinessschools.org/usps-long-life-vehicle/ - retrieved 17 July 2019 ► https://www.trucks.com/2019/02/04/postal-service-wrapping-testing-mail-truck-prototypes/ - retrieved 15 July 2019 ► https://about.usps.com/news/statements/011516.htm - retrieved 17 July 2019 ► https://www.postaltimes.com/postalnews/usps-completes-next-generation-delivery-vehicle-tests/ - retrieved 15 July 2019 ► “Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDL) Prototype Design Statement of Objectives”; “Section B – Prototype Vehicles, Carrier Route Next Generation”; published 10/08/2015; United States Postal Service ► http://www.postal-reporter.com/blog/usps-testing-next-generation-delivery-vehicle-prototype-in-arizona-detroit-and- northern-virginia/ - retrieved 21 July 2019 ► https://www.trucks.com/2019/09/03/postal-service-delays-new-mail-truck-contract/ - retrieved 9 February 2020 ► https://insideevs.com/reviews/332312/workhorse-w-15-plug-in-electric-truck-test-drive-review/ - retrieved 21 July 2019 ► https://jalopnik.com/heres-the-secret-new-electric-u-s-postal-service-truck-1819339421 - retrieved 23 July 2019 ► https://chargehub.com/en/electric-car-charging-guide.html - retrieved 21 July 2019 ► https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/26/the-secret-life-of-an-ev-battery/ - retrieved 29 July 2019 ► https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/how_to_prolong_lithium_based_batteries - retrieved 30 July 2019 ► https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/how_to_increase_the_runtime_of_your_wireless_device – retrieved 30 July 2019 ► https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/types_of_lithium_ion - retrieved 31 July 2019 ► https://www.statista.com/statistics/320262/number-of-usps-employees/ - retrieved 17 July 2019 ► https://www.statista.com/statistics/943334/usps-number-of-post-offices/ - retrieved 17 July 2019 ► Dun & Bradstreet Hoover’s Database; Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2019; retrieved 15 July 2019 ► https://about.usps.com/who-we-are/postal-history/employees-since-1926.pdf - retrieved 17 July 2019 ► https://www.ccjdigital.com/ups-all-in-on-electric-trucks-but-range-has-been-an-issue/ - retrieved 17 July 2019 ► 23 http://ridetowork.org/transportation-fact-sheet - retrieved 31 July 2019
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