Extreme Cold & Winter Weather | Update #4 - Department of Energy
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
TLP:WHITE
Extreme Cold & Winter Weather | Update #4
REPORT TIME & DATE: 12:00 PM EST| Friday, February 19, 2021
REPORT DISTRIBUTION: Public
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
An arctic air mass is beginning to recede after impacting the Central United States, bringing snow, ice,
and extreme cold temperatures from the Canadian border as far south as Texas, causing record winter
power demand and impacting power generation. While emergency conditions remain in effect on Friday,
the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has been able to balance generation and load to restore
the majority of customers who were under controlled power outages across Texas since early Monday.
The Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) also
implemented controlled outages on both Monday and Tuesday. The arctic air mass is expected to
continue impacting the region through the remainder of the week, but temperatures are expected to
begin to moderate throughout today and the weekend.
Electricity Sector Summary
• As of 11:00 AM EST, February 19, ERCOT downgraded their status to Energy Emergency Alert (EEA)
Level 1, Conservation Needed, as operating reserve margins continue to improve. ERCOT
downgraded their status to EEA 2 at 10:00 AM EST and they expect to come out of emergency
conditions later this morning. Generation resources continue to be strained due to offline units
tripped by cold weather, natural gas supply curtailments, and some wind power generation
outages. Enough generation capacity was returned to service in Texas to restore the customers that
were impacted by controlled outages.
o As of 9:30 AM EST, there were about 189,000 power outages across Texas. This is down
from more than 4 million customers without power on the afternoon of February 16.
o Although some customers remain out of power due to associated issues from the controlled
power outages, most of the remaining customers are without power in Texas and Louisiana
due to damaged infrastructure from the ongoing winter weather.
• SPP has restored their controlled outages and downgraded their status to EEA Level 1, but they still
have concern about sustaining the required Contingency Reserves. MISO has issued a Maximum
Generation Alert through 4 PM EST, February 20.
TLP:WHITE
SITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
Natural Gas Sector Summary
• Extreme cold temperatures have led to sharp increases in gas demands for home heating and
electricity generation across much of the Central United States. At the same time, the cold has
led to well freeze-offs and natural gas processing plant outages that have caused supply
disruptions in several producing areas, especially in the U.S. South Central region (TX, OK, KS, LA,
AR, MS, AL), which typically accounts for approximately 20-25% of total U.S. gas production.
Petroleum Sector Summary
• As of February 19, full or near-full refinery shutdowns have been reported at several refineries
accounting for about 20% of total U.S. refinery capacity. The worst impacts are primarily
concentrated in the Texas Gulf Coast region, but refinery issues extend across several states.
DOE ACTIONS
DOE ENERGY RESPONSE ORGANIZATION (ERO): ACTIVATED: Enhanced Watch
• DOE is coordinating with industry, interagency, and state partners to provide situational
awareness and support restoration efforts.
• DOE is holding daily unity of effort calls with electricity and oil and natural gas partners and is in
regular contact with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.
• Following a formal petition from ERCOT on February 14, the Acting Secretary of Energy issued an
emergency order pursuant to section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to authorize the dispatch of
additional generation units in the ERCOT region to help ensure reliability. This allows ERCOT to
dispatch generation units they deem necessary to meet electricity demand from February 14
through February 19, 2021 even if they are in exceedance of limits for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen
oxide, mercury, and carbon monoxide emissions, as well as wastewater release limits. A copy of
the order and additional information can found at:
https://www.energy.gov/oe/downloads/federal-power-act-section-202c-ercot-february-2021.
Page 2 of 12
TLP:WHITE
SITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
ELECTRICITY SECTOR
POWER OUTAGES
• As of 9:30 AM EST, there were approximately 263,000 power outages across Texas and Louisiana,
including 189,000 outages in Texas.
Texas and Louisiana Customer Power Outages
as of 9:30 AM EST 02/19/2021
% of State Without % Restored
State Current Outages Peak Outages
Power from Peak
Texas* 189,071 1.6% 4,893,204 96%
Louisiana 73,501 3% 211,496 65%
Total 262,572 - - -
*Total outages, including both controlled outages and storm-related outages.
Outage Chart
5.0 Outage Map
Millions
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Feb-15 3 AM
Feb-16 3 AM
Date
Feb-15 9 AM
Feb-16 9 AM
Feb-17 3 AM
Feb-17 9 AM
Feb-18 3 AM
Feb-18 9 AM
Feb-19 3 AM
Feb-15 3 PM
Feb-16 3 PM
Feb-14 9 PM
Feb-15 9 PM
Feb-16 9 PM
Feb-17 3 PM
Feb-17 9 PM
Feb-18 3 PM
Feb-18 9 PM
Texas Louisiana
Page 3 of 12
TLP:WHITE
SITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
ELECTRICITY OVERVIEW
• ERCOT: As of 11:00 AM EST on February 19, ERCOT downgraded their status to EEA Level 1,
Conservation Needed, as operating reserve margins continue to improve. ERCOT had downgraded
their status from EEA 3 to EEA 2 at 10:00 AM EST and expects to come out of emergency conditions
later this morning. There were no additional outages overnight.
• SPP: At 7:25 PM EST on February 18, SPP declared an Energy Emergency Alert EEA Level 1. All
available generation resources were committed to meet forecasted electricity demand.
• MISO: MISO has issued a Maximum Generation Alert for its South Region through 4 PM EST on
February 20. MISO has also extended its Conservative Operations and Cold Weather Alert through
February 20 at 4 PM EST.
Page 4 of 12
TLP:WHITESITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
REGIONAL DETAILS
OVERVIEW
• As of 11:00 AM EST on February 19, ERCOT
has moved to EEALevel 1, Conservation
Needed, and expects to come out of
emergency conditions later this morning.
• Customers outages remaining as of the
morning of February 19 are likely due to ice
storm damage on the distribution system,
emergency load shed that needs to be
restored manually, or large industrial facilities
that voluntarily went offline for conservation.
• ERCOT is the independent system operator
for the state of Texas, serving about 26
million people and about 90% of the state’s
electric load. ERCOT operates largely independently from the rest of country and is not subject to
federal oversight.
GENERATION
• Generation capacity offline: As of 8:30 AM EST on February 19, ERCOT reported that
approximately 34,000 MW of generation capacity remained on forced outage due to the winter
weather. Of this, nearly 20,000 MW is thermal generation, and the rest was wind and solar.
• Actual generation in January 2021: For context, from January 1-31, 2021, ERCOT’s actual
generation included:
o Gas (combined cycle): 10,744 GWh, 35%
o Wind: 7,702 GWh, 25%
o Coal: 6,803 GWh, 22%
o Nuclear: 3,801 GWh, 12%
o Solar: 732 GWh, 2%
o Combined thermal generation (Natural Gas, Gas, Coal, Nuclear) was about 72%
o Combined renewable generation (Wind, Solar) was about 27%
Page 5 of 12
TLP:WHITESITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
• Ongoing generation issues: Low supply of natural gas due to well “freeze offs,” low gas
pressure, and frozen instrumentation, as well as lower-than-normal solar generation due to
heavy cloud cover, and limited wind generation due to icing on the turbines constrained the
electricity supply.
Source: EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor
Federal action: On the evening of February 14, the Acting Secretary of Energy issued an emergency
order pursuant to section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to authorize the dispatch of additional
generation units in the ERCOT region to help ensure reliability. This allows ERCOT to dispatch
generation units they deem necessary to meet electricity demand from February 14 through
February 19, 2021 even if they are in exceedance of limits for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, mercury,
and carbon monoxide emissions, as well as wastewater release limits.
Page 6 of 12
TLP:WHITESITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
MISO
OVERVIEW
• MISO declared a Maximum Generation Alert at
9:30 EST on February 17 through February 20 at
4 PM EST with no further load shedding, after
several rounds of Maximum Generation
Emergency Event Step 2c between February 15-
17 when they directed utilities to shed load in
their Central, South, and Western regions due to
extreme winter weather and temperature-
related generation and transmission failures.
• MISO has extended its Conservative Operations
and Cold Weather Alert through February 20 at 4
PM EST.
• MISO is the independent system operator and regional transmission organization for much of the
Midwest, with 15 U.S. member states, including a small portion of Texas not covered by ERCOT.
SPP
OVERVIEW
• At 7:25 PM EST on February 18, SPP declared an
EEA Level 1. All available generation resources
were committed to meet forecasted electricity
demand.
• SPP has 14 member states in the Central and
Western United States and performs contract
reliability coordination services in three
additional states.
Page 7 of 12
TLP:WHITESITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
NATURAL GAS SECTOR
NATURAL GAS SUMMARY
Extreme cold temperatures have led to sharp increases in gas demands for home heating and
electricity generation across much of the Central United States. At the same time, the cold has led to
well freeze-offs and natural gas processing plant outages that have caused supply disruptions in several
producing areas, especially in the U.S. South Central region (TX, OK, KS, LA, AR, MS, AL), which typically
accounts for approximately 20-25% of total U.S. gas production.
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
• Wellhead freeze-offs due to below freezing temperatures have caused producers to cut back
natural gas production in the South-Central United States, including in the Permian Basin in
Texas and New Mexico, the Cana Woodford in Oklahoma, and the Denver-Julesburg in
Colorado.
• Although production losses due to freeze-offs are temporary, output takes time to return to
normal levels, and the cumulative reduction over several days could be substantial.
NATURAL GAS PROCESSING PLANTS
• Some natural gas processing plants and compressor stations across Texas have reportedly shut-
in due to weather conditions.
NATURAL GAS STORAGE
• Suppliers are compensating for lost output and responding to the surge in gas demand and
prices by withdrawing gas from storage facilities.
• This week ending February 19th ,2021 is projected to have the largest withdrawal from storage
in the history of the South Central Region
NATURAL GAS STOCKS
• Natural gas stocks in the U.S. South Central region stood at 826 Bc/f on February 12, 3.0%
below the five-year average for this time of year. Natural gas stocks for the week ending
February 19 are expected be 15%-20% lower than this week for the South-Central Region, due
to this week’s significant draws.
• According to EIA’s Form 191 data, Texas has 30 active natural gas storage facilities.
Page 8 of 12
TLP:WHITESITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
Source: EIA
South Central includes Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana,
Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas
NATURAL GAS PIPELINES
• Natural gas pipelines across the affected area have implemented severe/winter weather
procedures and many lines have issued operational flow orders.
NATURAL GAS UTILITIES
• On February 12, the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC) issued an emergency order temporarily
prioritizing natural gas deliveries to natural gas utilities for residences, hospitals, schools,
churches, and other human needs customers.
LNG TERMINALS
• On February 17, Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a letter to the TRC directing “all sourced
natural gas be made available for sale to local power generation opportunities before leaving
the State of Texas.” Following the letter from Governor Abbott, the TRCissued Notice to
Operators.
• Texas Governor Greg Abbott has asked LNG export terminals to dial back operations.
Page 9 of 12
TLP:WHITESITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
PETROLEUM SECTOR
PETROLEUM SECTOR SUMMARY
Extreme cold temperatures and power outages have forced operators to shut down refineries in the
U.S. Gulf Coast region. Additionally, extreme cold temperatures and well freeze-offs have led to
production outages in producing areas.
REFINERIES
• As of February 19, refinery shutdowns, rate reductions, or process unit outages have been
reported at refineries representing approximately 5.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of refinery
capacity. Full or near-full refinery shutdowns have been reported several refineries, accounting
for approximately 20% of total U.S. refinery capacity. The most severe impacts have been
reported in the Texas Gulf Coast region.
PORTS
• Operations in the Houston Ship Channel resumed at 10:30 AM EST on February 17.
OIL STOCKS
• Crude oil stocks in the Gulf Coast Crude Oil Stocks in U.S. excluding SPR
(million barrels)
(PADD 3) averaged 249 million
320
barrels for the week ending
February 5, 5.0% above the five- 300
year average for this time of 280
year.
260
240
220
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Range 5-YrEIA
Source: Avg.Weekly2020
Petroleum 2021
Status Report
Page 10 of 12
TLP:WHITESITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
EMERGENCY DECLARATIONS & WAIVERS
EMERGENCY DECLARATIONS
To provide vital supplies and transportation services to a disaster area in the United States, emergency
declarations may be issued by the President, Governors of States, or the Federal Motor Carrier Safety
Administration (FMCSA). These declarations trigger the temporary suspension of certain Federal safety
regulations, including Hours of Service, for motor carriers and drivers engaged in specific aspects of the
emergency relief effort. See 49 CFR 390.23 for the actual emergency regulation.
Emergency Declarations and HOS Waivers for TX, OK, LA as of 10:30 AM EST 02/19/2021
Effective Dates
State/Territory Details Status
Start End
HHS Public Health Emergency 2/17 Continuing Active
Texas Department of Public Safety
Emergency Notice – Assistance for
2/10 2/15 Expired
Texas delivery of Propane and Home Heating
Oils
Federal Emergency Declaration 2/11 Continuing Active
State Disaster Declaration 2/12 Continuing Active
Federal Emergency Declaration 2/18 Continuing Active
Emergency Order- Implementation of
Louisiana 2/15 2/20 Active
Emergency Gas Shortage Plan
State of Emergency 2/11 3/12 Active
HOS Waiver 2/10 3/12 Active
Oklahoma Federal Emergency Declaration 2/18 Continuing Active
State of Emergency 2/12 Continuing Active
Emergency Declarations and HOS Waivers for All Other States as of 10:30 AM EST 02/19/2021
Effective Dates
State/Territory Details Status
Start End
Regional Emergency Declaration
(AR, CT, DE, DC, IL, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD,
Multi-State MA, MN, MO, MS, MT, NE, NJ, NY, NM, 2/17 3/4 Active
NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, TX,
VA, WV, WI, WY)
Montana HOS Waiver 2/12 3/14 Active
North Dakota HOS Waiver 2/12 3/14 Active
Connecticut HOS Waiver 2/13 2/19 Active
New Mexico Department of Public
New Mexico 2/15 2/20 Active
Safety- Declaration of Emergency Notice
Page 11 of 12
TLP:WHITESITUATION UPDATE TLP:WHITE February 19, 2021
State of Emergency- Affecting Eight
Counties in Northern & North Central
West Virginia 2/16 3/18 Active
WV. State of Preparedness for the rest of
the state.
Virginia State of Emergency 2/11 3/13 Active
State of Emergency in the Willamette
Oregon 2/13 Continuing Active
Valley
Declaration of Transportation Emergency
Maryland and Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety 2/19 2/23 Preliminary
Regulation Waiver
Executive Order- Emergency Motor
Nebraska Carrier Relief Due to Extreme Cold 2/15 2/19 Active
Temperatures
New York HOS Waiver 2/17 3/1 Active
Illinois Department of Transportation-
Illinois 2/16 2/20 Active
Declaration of Emergency.
Iowa State of Disaster Emergency 2/15 3/17 Active
Pennsylvania HOS Waiver 2/27 2/28 Active
Tennessee HOS Waiver 2/16 2/26 Active
Kentucky Transportation Cabinet
Declaration of Emergency- Assistance for
Kentucky 2/11 2/21 Active
power restoration and delivery of
gasoline, propane, and diesel fuels
HOS Waiver 2/14 2/21 Active
Mississippi
State of Emergency 2/14 2/21 Active
HOS Waiver 2/14 3/16 Active
Alabama
State of Emergency 2/14 Continuing Active
Sources: State government, White House, and websites.
• On February 15, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality was granted approval to
temporarily suspend certain emissions requirements to the extent that compliance with
requirements prevent, hinder, or delay necessary action in coping with this disaster. This
suspension provides relief of natural gas generation and distribution emissions requirements. The
suspension is in effect until terminated by the Office of the Governor of until the Texas disaster
declaration is lifted or expires.
Page 12 of 12
TLP:WHITEYou can also read
