Europe's future aviation landscape - The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
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Europe’s future aviation landscape The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040 April 2021
Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Introduction Aviation Technology Intra-EU Market Comparing Modes Key Takeaways and
Roadmap by 2040 Potential for Passenger of Transport Drivers for Success
(for short-haul flights) Air Travel in 2040
The context for the 04 The road to zero-carbon 09 The key market segments for 12 Comparing conventional 17 Action is needed now 26
decarbonization and zero-emissions zero-carbon and zero-emissions kerosene aircraft with
of the aviation sector commercial passenger aircraft in 2040 zero-carbon and zero- Repositioning aviation 27
aircraft on intra-European emissions alternatives on very short-haul travels
The non-CO2 global warming 06 short-haul routes The Intra-EU passenger 13
effect of aviation air travel market in 2040 Comparing different modes 19 Sources & List of contacts 28
Key features of zero-carbon 10 of transport for routes of
Focus of this report and key 07 and zero-emissions The climate impact reduction 14 500 km / 1000 km / 2000 km Appendix: List of data sources 29
questions to be answered aircraft by 2040 potential of zero-carbon and and assumptions used for the
zero-emissions aircraft in 2040 different numerical analysis
Electric propulsion to unlock 15
the regional short-haul market
2
Imagine if... You could fly across Europe without worrying about your environmental footprint.
Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
The context for the decarbonization
of the aviation sector
The need for disruption Powering aircraft sustainably are yet to become cost competitive and it will take several years before
Globally, aviation connectivity is a strong driver of economic growth, Energy efficiency improvements to current technologies, operations the production of sustainable synthetic fuels is available at large-scale.4
jobs, trade and mobility. At the same time, the growth in air traffic and infrastructure are part of the solution to decarbonize the aviation
demand needs to be concomitant with maintaining high standards of sector, but incremental improvements of existing systems won’t Most importantly, the combustion of SAFs still causes in-flight CO2
aviation safety as well as reducing aviation’s environmental footprint. suffice to reach the decarbonization ambitions put forth by the EU and NOx emissions that are similar to those of kerosene-powered
The aviation industry is one of many industries that has a heavy impact Commission in its European Green Deal within reasonable timelines. As aircraft and consequently SAFs only partially solve the sector’s
on global human-made emissions. While aviation accounts for 2-3% most of aviation emissions are related to the combustion of kerosene, environmental challenge. Scalable and truly sustainable innovation is
of global carbon emissions today, if no changes are made in the it is crucial to focus on how airplanes are powered and uncover new required to reduce emissions from aviation and decrease the industry’s
sector this will increase to as much as 27% by 2050.1 Based on and sustainable ways to propel aircraft. GHGs footprint in the long-term.
planned reductions and “more efficient” fossil fuel technology, the
industry is still projected to consume over 12% of the annual CO2 Replacing kerosene with sustainable alternatives (also called Batteries and hydrogen
budget. Sustainable Aviation Fuels, or SAFs) could help reduce the net- Promising technologies have emerged to help decarbonize the aviation
emissions of air travel, even in the short term. Indeed, technologies sector in the long-term.
Increased public pressure using biomass to produce jet fuels are already existing and several
The past few years have seen an increase in public pressure on the airlines started using biofuels (or a kerosene-biofuel blend) on different The first one leverages recent advances in the automotive
sector, especially in Europe, with a growing media attention given to routes, including long-haul ones.3 However, scaling up the production industry and consists of using batteries to power electric motors
the “flight shaming” movement as well as discussions within different of biofuels significantly (which currently represents less than 1% of and spin propellers or ducted fans to generate thrust. While today’s
European governments about promoting a significant shift towards global jet fuel demand) will increase the biomass demand, which in turn battery energy densities can only power small aircraft for a short
more sustainable modes of transport, such as rail. Under increased will lead to a critical competition for feedstock, land use, and water with period of time, the current rate of improvement will make it possible
scrutiny, and following pledges made by other emission-intensive other industries, such as food and feed production. for larger passenger aircraft to be powered by batteries for journeys
sectors, the European aviation sector adopted several resolutions to of several hundreds and even thousands of kilometres in the future.5
significantly reduce its emissions and a proposed approach to reach A solution potentially scalable would be to produce synthetic SAFs The development of this technology is crucial, as battery-powered
carbon-neutrality by 2050.2 To achieve these targets, the aviation through the reaction of hydrogen and CO2. Hydrogen will need to be aircraft don't produce any in-flight emissions, therefore removing
industry is currently shifting from focusing solely on technological produced by using renewable energy to split water into hydrogen and any in-flight global warming effects. For a truly carbon neutral cycle,
and operational improvements towards developing new systems and oxygen, whereas CO2 will need to be captured from the air or as an batteries need to be charged with renewable electricity.
alternatives to kerosene to significantly reduce the emissions of the output of industrial processes. However, the underlying technologies
sector.
4
Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Another promising solution to decarbonize aviation is to use From a road perspective, the recent progress in electric vehicle zero-carbon and zero-emissions technologies for the aviation sector
hydrogen-based technologies. While hydrogen has been studied for technologies has greatly extended the range and flexibility of EV are therefore needed. However, support for these measures might
decades, the growing share of renewable energy production has led cars and intercity buses. Whereas their potential for long-distance compete with funds potentially allocated to the development of
to a particular interest in hydrogen6 as it can be used as an effective travel is limited, their immediate availability offers a concrete and cost- other sustainable transport or policies advocating for a modal shift,
energy carrier or storage medium to mitigate the intermittent effects effective solution to reduce the climate impact of the transport sector. for example towards rail transport. While the current arguments in
of solar or wind energy production. Hydrogen could therefore become From a rail perspective, the development of the high-speed train favour of electric vehicles and rail rely on their low climate footprint,
the link between renewable energy and energy intensive industries, network is likely to impose a significant competitive pressure the advent of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft could
such as aviation. on air transport. Furthermore, from an environmental point of view, significantly impact the discourse and drive government support
current short-haul flights are typically much more carbon-intensive per for the aviation sector.
Hydrogen can be used in two main ways to power aircraft: either kilometre than rail as a large proportion of an airplane’s fuel is burnt
in a fuel cell to provide electricity for electric motors (the same during the take-off and climbing phases (which represent a greater
way as batteries), or by combusting it in modified jet engines part of the flight on short routes). However, the extent to which the
to generate thrust. Hydrogen propulsion could significantly reduce rail network can support a significant shift of passenger volumes from
the climate impact of the aviation industry by completely eliminating air to rail travel is uncertain and important infrastructure investment While the current arguments in
carbon emissions. It is, however, important to note that hydrogen
propulsion technologies still emit water vapour and NOx (in case of
would be required to increase the network capacities.
favour of electric vehicles and rail
combustion), which both promote non-CO2 related global warming The need for (EU & public) investments rely on their low climate footprint,
effects (see dedicated section on the next page). On top of the ongoing discussions around the climate impact
of aviation, the Covid-19 crisis highlighted the benefits of empty the advent of zero-carbon and
The busy short-haul mobility ecosystem skies and highways on air quality and reinvigorated the debate on
The current aviation technology roadmap suggests that such whether governments should use public money to bail out polluting zero-emissions aircraft could
battery- and hydrogen-powered commercial passenger aircraft
(also designated as zero-emissions and zero-carbon aircraft,
industries, aviation included. While certain governments incorporated
requirements to cut emissions in their funding agreements with
significantly impact the discourse
respectively) will enter into service by 2040, with expected airlines,8 or even ban flights shorter than 2 hours and 30 minutes and drive government support
performances that would allow them to compete on the short- where rail is available,9 public bailouts also need to address airlines’
haul market segment (with different key sub-segment for battery-5 unprecedented liquidity difficulties and long-term solvency challenge. for the aviation sector.
and hydrogen7 -powered aircraft). Given this, synergies with the road Additional investments and policies supporting the development of
and rail sectors need to be considered.
5
Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
The non-CO2 global warming
effect of aviation
The climate impact of kerosene aircrafts' non-CO2 emissions is estimated
to be from 2 to over 4 times that of CO2 alone
The global warming impact of the aviation sector due to its CO2 Most of these phenomena are difficult to measure, and large
emissions is well known. However, other emissions arising from uncertainties remain regarding their exact magnitude, but
the combustion of kerosene have been identified as significant recent studies estimate that the impact of non-CO2 emissions
contributors to global warming: nitrogen oxides (NOx), soot ranges from 2 to over 4 times that of CO2 alone.11 Despite the
particles, oxidized sulphur molecules (SOx), and water vapour. uncertainties, it is therefore evident that non-CO2 emissions
These emissions result in changes in the chemical composition and their related effects are significant contributors to global
of the atmosphere and influence the formation of clouds, a warming.
combination which results in a net positive radiative warming
force.10 It is important to note that the impact of non-CO2 emissions strongly
depends on atmospheric conditions, such as temperature, humidity
Most of the impact of these non-CO2 emissions occurs during the and local concentrations of particles. Therefore, mitigation strategies
cruise phase of a flight, when an aircraft flies at high altitudes. For could be adopted,11 mainly: reducing soot and sulphur particle
example, contrails, which are the lines of cloud that can be observed emissions by using cleaner aviation fuels, or via changes in air traffic
behind a moving airplane, are formed when water vapour from its management, such as avoiding contrail cirrus-forming regions of
exhaust condenses on particle emissions (such as soot or sulphur the atmosphere. Ultimately, the advent of zero-carbon and
particles). These contrails then slowly spread to form cirrus-like zero-emissions propulsion systems represent the only viable
clouds that trap and release it into the atmosphere. The emissions options to significantly reduce the global warming impact of the
of nitrogen oxides also have a global warming effect: NOx emissions aviation sector. Battery-powered aircraft produce no emissions,
promote the rapid formation of ozone – a strong greenhouse gas and hydrogen propulsion systems are expected to reduce in-flight
(GHG), but also the decomposition of methane particles (CH4, climate impact12 by 75% to 90% for fuel-cell-powered aircraft and by
another GHG), however at a lower rate compared to the creation of 50% to 75% for hydrogen combustion-powered aircraft.
ozone, resulting in a net warming effect.
6
Focus of this report What role should zero-carbon and
and key questions zero-emissions aircraft play in European
to be answered mobility strategies towards 2040?
In this context, this report aims at providing clarity regarding Aviation Technology Intra-EU Market Comparing Modes
several questions surrounding the future of zero-carbon and Roadmap by 2040 Potential for Passenger of Transport
zero-emissions aircraft in Europe, in order to understand the (for short-haul flights) Air Travel in 2040
true potential of these technologies and the place they should
occupy in European mobility roadmaps, policy frameworks,
and investment strategies. In order to do this, the report looks
1. What is the current 3. What market segments can 6. How do zero-carbon and
at the projected aviation technology roadmap and expected
technology roadmap for be captured by zero-carbon zero-emissions aircraft
performance, as well as the distance segments that could be
zero-carbon and zero and zero-emissions aircraft compare to other modes
captured by zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft in the
emissions propulsion in 2040? of transport in terms of:
intra-European passenger travel market i in 2040, the date by
technologies (for short-haul 4. How many passengers could • Climate impact?
which these new aircraft are expected to enter into service.
flights)? be transported with zero- • Travel time?
Zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft are then compared
2. What are the key features carbon and zero-emissions • Travel price?
to other conventional modes of transport (air and ground) to
of zero-carbon and zero- aircraft in 2040?
better understand the benefits and trade-offs associated with
emissions airplanes? 5. What is the climate impact
these new technologies in terms of climate impact, travel costs
reduction potential of zero-
per passenger, and overall travel time.
carbon and zero-emissions
aircraft in 2040?
Notes: i) i.e., excluding: flights from or to an airport outside the EU, freight transport and VTOL aircraft
7
Aviation Technology Roadmap by 2040 (for short-haul flights) Battery and hydrogen propulsion technologies represent the most promising paths towards a zero-carbon and zero-emissions aviation industry.
Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
The road to zero-carbon and zero-emissions commercial
passenger aircraft on intra-European short-haul routes
The road to truly zero-emissions aviation will take incremental steps, from making current aircraft more efficient, to replacing kerosene with hydrogen or integrating all-electric
propulsion systems into new aircraft designs, while offsetting equivalent GHG emissions and introducing hybrid systems along the way. The different technologies will coexist
for a certain period of time until a complete switch towards zero-carbon and zero-emissions aviation can be achieved.
Sustainability
Potential
Timeline to start large-
scale implementation in
the short-haul commercial
passenger market i
Today 2020-2025 2030-2035 2035-2040 as of 2040
I. Efficient aviation II. Net-zero aviation III. Hybrid-electric aviation VI. Zero-carbon aviationii V. Zero-emissions aviationii
Reduce GHG emissions through technological Offset equivalent GHG emissions via carbon Implement hybrid-electric powertrains to Replace kerosene with non-carbon Replace all propulsion systems with fully electric
and operational efficiency, such as propulsion offsetting investments (e.g. renewable energy, carbon partially reduce GHG emissions. Done via emitting fuels (e.g. hydrogen), which can be propulsion systems. Combustion engines are
system and aerodynamic efficiency sequestration) or reduce net emissions by replacing the integration of electric motors powered combusted in modified turbines or reacted in replaced by electric motors powered by batteries
improvements, electrification of control systems, kerosene with sustainable aviation fuels (e.g. biofuel by batteries or fuel cells to complement fuel cells to power an electric powertrain. For to drive propellers or ducted fans. Electricity
optimized flight patterns and optimized taxi from biomass or waste, or power-to-liquid fuels a combustion engine or via the use of a a truly zero-carbon cycle, hydrogen must be must be produced without emitting carbon.
operations (or use of electric systems). synthesized from hydrogen and CO2). combustion engine to drive an electric produced without emitting carbon.
generator powering an electric motor.
Hydrogen-based Battery based
propulsion aircraft propulsion aircraft
Out of scope Focus of this publicationiii
Notes: i) The timeline indicates dates at which the first pilot projects or new propulsion systems are expected to be implemented by commercial passenger airlines.
ii) Zero-emissions (battery-powered) aircraft are expected to have the energy capacity to serve the short-haul market, whereas zero-carbon (hydrogen-powered) aircraft have the potential to serve long-haul routes. These technologies are therefore expected to coexist for the foreseeable future. 9
iii) The developments in net-zero and hybrid-electric technologies are not covered in this publication as they primarily represent transitional solutions towards true zero-carbon and zero-emissions technologies.
Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Key features of zero-carbon and Battery and hydrogen propulsion technologies represent the most promising paths towards
a zero-carbon and zero-emissions aviation industry. While there is no all-round answer to
decarbonize aircrafts’ operations, batteries and hydrogen can offer sustainable solutions across
zero-emissions aircraft by 2040 the different distance segments of the market. Therefore, this combination of technologies
has the potential to greatly decrease the overall climate impact of the aviation sector.
Zero-carbon aviation Zero-emissions aviation
Hydrogen-powered Up to 2000 km Hydrogen fuel cell Up to 1000 km Battery-powered Up to 500 km
combustion aircraft Distance range electric aircraft Distance range electric aircraft Distance range
Technology Hydrogen, and oxygen captured from the air, are hydrogen is reacted in a fuel cell to provide electricity to electric Electric batteries are used to power electric motors
overview combusted in modified engines to generate thrust motors than spin propellers or ducted fans to generate thrust that spin propellers or ducted fans to generate thrust
Performance – 50-75% + 5-15% + 10-35% – 75-90% + 20-30% + 0-15% – 100% + 20-30% + 0-20%
Climate impact Flight Ticket Climate impact Flight Ticket Climate impact Flight Ticket
indicatorsi, ii
reduction potential time price reduction potential time price reduction potential time price
Benefits No carbon emissions (water and NOx are still produced) Near-Zero emissions (water is still produced) Zero emissions
Scalable technology derived from conventional Quieter engines Quieter engines
aircraft designs and engines Economy of scale benefits from synergies with other Reduced maintenance costs (fewer moving parts)
Economies of scale benefits from synergies with other hydrogen dependent industries Economy of scale benefits from synergies with other
hydrogen dependent industries battery dependent industries
Constraints The low energy density of battery and hydrogen propulsion systems will decrease the flight range and optimal cruise speed By 2040, higher energy costs (hydrogen), capital costs (energy storage, propulsion system) and maintenance costs (landing gear,
compared to conventional kerosene systems battery replacement) of hydrogen and battery aircraft compared to conventional kerosene aircraft will lead to increased ticket
prices. However, these costs are expected to decrease with the large-scale implementation of hydrogen and battery technologies.
Required 1. Significant increase in sustainable hydrogen production capacities 1. Further improvement of battery technologies,
2. Development of large-scale hydrogen supply chains (transport) and required airport infrastructures (storage) especially in terms of energy density
development 3. Important Innovations required to adapt aircraft for the use of liquid hydrogen as a fuel (adapted aircraft designs 2. Significant increase in renewable electricity production
and engines, power-dense fuel cells, light hydrogen storage systems) 3. Innovations required to adapt aircraft to large battery systems
(design, electrical systems, electric motors)
Notes: i) Comparisons are made for similar routes and aircraft within the mentioned distance segments Sources: – Schäfer et al. (2018), Technological, economic and environmental prospects of all-electric aircraft. Nature Energy 10
ii) Ticket prices do not consider potential increase in carbon tax until 2040 – European Commission. Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (2020), Hydrogen-powered aviation - A fact-based study of hydrogen technology, economics, and climate impact by 2050Intra-EU Market Potential for Passenger Air Travel in 2040 Zero-carbon and zero-emissions airliners are expected to mainly serve short routes due to limited flight ranges. The intra-European market therefore represents a great opportunity for these technologies.
Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
The key market segments for However, configured to best maximize the passenger-
range ratio, battery- and hydrogen-based airplanes
can be operated on key market segments where both
Following the assumption that the use of aircraft with
the highest climate impact reduction potential needs
to be maximized, battery-powered airplanes should
zero-carbon and zero-emissions passenger demand and climate impact reduction
potentials are the highest.
serve routes up to 500 km, followed by hydrogen fuel-
cell-powered planes from 500 km to 1000 km, and
hydrogen combustion airplanes covering distances
aircraft in 2040
Based on expected technology advancements and between 1000 km and 2000 km (based on performance
the development roadmap announced by aircraft and limitations expected by 2040, these ranges are
manufacturers, it is possible to determine what expected to be extended with further technology
aircraft designs could be available by 2040 developments).
(i.e., entry into service around 2040), as well
By 2040, the energy and power density of battery- and hydrogen-based
as their performance and seating capacity.
propulsion technologies will still be lower than existing kerosene-based
systems, resulting in zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft being
limited in terms of passenger capacity and flight range.
– 100%
Up to 500 km 100 - 120 Battery-powered
Climate impact
Distance range
reduction potential
Seat capacity electric aircraft
– 75-90%
Up to 1000 km
Climate impact
60 - 100 Hydrogen fuel cell
Distance range
reduction potential
Seat capacity electric aircraft
– 50-75%
Up to 2000 km
Climate impact
100 - 180 Hydrogen-powered
Distance range
reduction potential
Seat capacity combustion aircraft
Source: Wright Electric, Airbus, CleanSky2 & FCH2, Deloitte Analysis
12Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
The intra-EU passenger
air travel market in 2040
Number of passengers (in millions) on
intra-EU flights, per flight distance segments
+72%
(2,5% CAGR)
Almost 90% of intra-European passenger air transport would fall into the operating 1,181
segments of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft in 2040. 124
(11%) Best-suited technology per
segment to reduce overall
As explained previously, zero- 2040, flights up to 500 km would 25 years). As shown in the past, and
climate impact
carbon and zero-emissions absorb 25% of passengers, while again with the Covid-19 crisis, the
aircraft are expected to mainly routes of up to 1000 km and 2000 renewal rate can be accelerated 379
serve short routes due to limited km would cover 47% and 89% of by different factors12 – mostly (32%)
flight ranges. The intra-European demand, respectively (see figure on economic, such as: increasing -59% Suitable for hybrid-electric
market (i.e. flights from and to an the right). These numbers show fuel prices, variation in air traffic and sustainable fuels
686
EU airport) therefore represents that, despite allowing shorter demand, higher maintenance costs, (not covered in this publication)
Above
a great opportunity for these flight ranges than kerosene- and the availability of more fuel- 2000 km 72
technologies. Boosted by seamless powered aircraft, zero-carbon and efficient aircraft. Furthermore, Hydrogen combustion
1000 -
airport operations and low-cost zero-emissions airliners have the the implementation of stricter
2000 km 220 72
380 89% propulsion
offerings, the European population potential to absorb a significant environmental regulations
has increasingly chosen air transport part of the intra-European and financial incentives by (32%)
to travel within Europe and the passenger market. governments to influence
Hydrogen fuel cell
demand for flights between EU these factors can play a 35 electric propulsion
500 -
airports will continue to increase. It is important to note that with the fundamental role in accelerating 221
1000 km
first deliveries of hydrogen- and the replacement of kerosene Battery-powered
As presented earlier, different battery-powered passenger aircraft airplanes with zero-carbon and 298
29 electric propulsion
distance segments could be served expected between 2035 and 2040, zero-emissions alternatives. (25%)
up to
by battery- and hydrogen-powered the complete renewal of the fleet 500 km 173
Sources:
aircraft. Taking the total number of might take decades (the current 8 – Passengers in 2018: Eurostat. News release. 6
intra-EU passengers forecasted for average lifetime of an aircraft is December 2019. Air passenger transport in the EU
2018 2040 – Forecasted CAGR: Eurocontrol. (2018). European
Aviation in 2040 - Challenges of growth (Annex 1 - Flight
Forecast to 2040) – “Regulation & Growth” Scenario
– Flight distance distribution: Electric Leap. (2020). Zero-
emissions Commercial Air Transport – Let’s get started
13Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
The climate impact reduction
potential of zero-carbon and
Climate Impact (in MtCO2-eq) of
Intra-EU passenger flights in 2040
zero-emissions aircraft in 2040 177 Most suitable technology
per segment to reduce
In 2040, replacing all kerosene aircraft with zero-carbon and zero-emissions overall climate impact
alternatives could decrease the intra-EU climate impact by up to 59% Above 35
2000 km (20%)
Emissions from flights above 2000 km
could be further reduced with hybrid
Looking at the intra-EU passenger of liquid hydrogen storage tanks, This roadmap should also promote technologies (hydrogen or electric)
air travel market in 2040, up to 80% the development of powerful light- intermediary technologies, such -59% and sustainable aviation fuels
of the forecasted CO2-equivalent weight electric motors and hydrogen as hybrid-electric and sustainable
emissions fall into the operating compatible engines, the redesign of aviation fuels (SAFs), both Hydrogen combustion
segments of future hydrogen- and aircrafts’ fuselage to fit these new representing important transitional propulsion
1000 - 78
battery-powered airplanes (see figure technologies, the development of solutions to reduce emissions until 2000 km (44%) – 49 MtCO2-eq
on the right, first column). Replacing safe and reliable high-voltage zero-carbon and zero-emissions (avg. –62.5% emissions)
all aircraft in those segments with electricity and liquid hydrogen technologies take over the entire
zero-carbon and zero-emissions distribution systems, and the sector. The development of smaller Hydrogen fuel cell
72 electric propulsion
variants would represent a integration of ground infrastructure battery- and hydrogen-powered
substantial decrease of 59% in for battery charging or swapping, aircraft will also play an important – 39 MtCO2-eq
emissions. With conventional aircraft as well as hydrogen supply and role in demonstrating the feasibility (avg. –82.5% emissions)
development cycles of 15-20 years, refuelling systems. of such systems, as well as gauging 35
it is crucial to invest significant the certification processes. The Battery-powered
500 - 47
effort into developing propulsion To achieve these technological aviation industry also needs to (27%) electric propulsion
1000 km
technologies and to optimize the breakthroughs, a sector-wide support the increase of renewable – 17 MtCO2-eq
time to market of zero-carbon and roadmap aligning the private and energy production needed to (–100% emissions)
29
zero-emissions aircraft in order to public sectors needs to be agreed charge batteries and produce green
ensure their entry into service by upon to foster research and hydrogen, which is essential to up to 17 Notes:
2040. To do so, several technological innovation activity and funding, truly guarantee the overall climate 500 km (9%) 8 – The data illustrates the direct in-flight climate impact,
taking into account CO2 and non-CO2 related climate
advancements are required: a as well as the implementation of impact reduction potential of impact (other GHGs, water vapour, high altitude
contrails) translated to CO2 equivalent (source:
significant increase in the energy and an adequate policy framework and these technologies. Forecasted intra-EU Resulting emissions EcoPassenger Methodology)
power density of battery and fuel cell optimized certification processes CO2-eq emissions from 100% market – A 2% per year efficiency improvement of conventional
in 2040, by distance penetration in 2040 aircraft is considered in order to derive 2040 baseline
systems, a major weight reduction for these new technologies. segment (hypothetical) values (source: ICAO)
14Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Electric propulsion to unlock
the regional short-haul market
In addition to the existing air travel market, battery- and
fuel-cell-powered aircraft have the potential to further
develop regional short-haul air transport.
With current aircraft, airlines However, thanks to shorter
struggle to operate short routes and quieter take-off and landings,
economically due to higher fuel as well as reduced operating and
burn rates and increasingly tight maintenance costs (expected in Reduced noise Shorter take-off distance Lower operating costs Lower maintenance costs
profit margins.i Therefore, short- the long-term), electric aircraft Thanks to the absence of Thanks to increased static Thanks to reduced energy Thanks to decreased system
haul flights are usually operated can overcome the current a combustion core, slower thrust leading to improved costs and to the simplicity complexity and a significantly
as connections with large hubs to challenges of regional routes propeller rotation speed, acceleration and longevity of electricity- smaller number of moving
further serve the more profitable and serve smaller airports and significantly fewer powered motors and parts
medium- and long-haul markets.13 economically.14, 15 Additionally, moving parts drivetrains
Furthermore, in contrast with busy they can contribute to fast, safe, and
short routes between hubs (such effective mobility in less populated
as Amsterdam-London), regional areas, where the investment in
routes to tier-2 and tier-3 airports alternative transport solutions is not Benefits expected in the longer term
come with several challenges: lower justified from a traffic density, cost, Note: F
rom a technology and operations perspective, hydrogen thanks to future innovation and
and seasonal demand, shorter or environmental and landscape combustion-powered airplanes don’t differ significantly from economies of scale
kerosene-powered ones, and therefore, the benefits of electric
runway length, and limited airport impact point of view. propulsion systems mentioned here do not apply.
infrastructure.
Notes: i) Low-cost carriers rely on ancillary services (e.g. extra luggage, in-flight sales
and internet services, insurance) to make profit on short-haul flights 15Comparing Modes of Transport Zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft will disrupt journeys throughout Europe
Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Comparing conventional kerosene aircraft with
zero-carbon and zero-emissions alternatives
Significant environmental benefits, but slightly increased
travel time and costs.
When looking at the different key distance segments, the Remarkably, the increase in price and total travel time (i.e.
See analysis on next page
environmental benefits of zero-carbon and zero-emissions considering the inbound and outbound travel between the airport
airplanes compared to conventional kerosene airplanes are and the city centre, as well as the advised arrival time prior to
evident, even considering the potential use of non-renewable energy flight departure) is limited to a maximum of a 23% increase in ticket
to produce electricity and hydrogen. Battery-powered flights could price for hydrogen combustion flights, while keeping the travel time
lead to the complete elimination of emissions below 500 km, while extension below 11% in all cases. This increase in price and travel time
hydrogen-powered aircraft could reduce the emissions of flights up represents a reasonable contribution from customers compared to the
to 1000 km by 89% and flights up to 2000 km by 68% when using significant environmental benefits of zero-carbon and zero-emissions
green hydrogen (i.e. produce with renewable energy), a substantial travel on the entire intra-European air travel sector.
improvement compared to current kerosene aircraft.
17Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Air Route Distance Climate Impact Travel Cost Travel Time
(in gCO2-eq/km/PAX) (in Euros/PAX) (in minutes)
500 km 186 77 274
70 255
34
+10% +7%
75 94
32
Annual passenger volume in 2040 for this segment: 298 million -94% -100%
Example of equivalent route: Barcelona–Madrid
120 180 180
12
0
Battery-powered electric
(BPE) propulsion Kerosene BPE BPE (green) Kerosene BPE Kerosene BPE
1000 km 193 106 343
-41% 98 310
19 +8% +11%
163
81 113 130
-89%
Annual passenger volume in 2040 for this segment: 380 million
Example of equivalent route: Barcelona–Frankfurt
92
93 180 180
21
Hydrogen fuel cell 21
(HFC) electric propulsion Kerosene HFC HFC (green) Kerosene HFC Kerosene HFC
2000
+1%
km 135
10
137
155
190
+23%
370 389
+5%
-68% 190 209
Annual passenger volume in 2040 for this segment: 379 million 94
75
Example of equivalent route: Paris–Athens
43
180 180
50 43
Hydrogen combustion
(HC) propulsion Kerosene HC HC (green) Kerosene HC Kerosene HC
CO2 emissions from kerosene consumption during the flight Ticket price Flight time
Non-CO2 global warming impact (water, contrails, NOx, SOx) Pre- and post-travel time: time between final
destination and airport or train station, advised
Emissions generated during the production of the required amount of kerosene
arrival time at airport or train station, mandatory
Note: he travel cost and time are based on the data retrieved
T missions generated if using non-renewable energy to charge the batteries
E breaks during road travel
from the online travel calculator Rome2Rio.com or produce the required amount of hydrogen
18Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Comparing different modes of
transport for 500 km journeys
The relevance of battery-powered aircraft on short
routes depends on the existing rail network.
Routes of 500 km represent a critical distance segment in which air travel remains one of the fastest options and the potential
See analysis on next page
all modes of transport can be considered as viable alternatives. development of regional air routes enabled by electric propulsion
In terms of emissions, electric forms of transport, including might further reduce the pre- and post-travel time necessary for air
battery-powered aircraft, clearly offer the lowest emitting travel. The travel time of rail strongly depends on the network in
alternatives, whereas kerosene airplanes are by far the most place on selected routes. Journeys between cities connected by
polluting mode of transport. an efficient high-speed rail network might be faster by rail than
by air, whereas less developed rail services could lead to longer
In terms of cost, the competitiveness of cars depends on the travel times than air alternatives, and sometimes even longer
number of passengers splitting the costs. While the travel prices for than road travel.
battery-powered aircraft are the highest of all modes, they remain
within the range of those of kerosene airplanes and rail (and two- Notably, on short routes electric vehicles represent one of the best
passenger cars), but above bus prices. alternatives in terms of emissions and travel costs, and the advent
of autonomous driving could mitigate the burden of long driving
For distances of around 500 km, the differences in travel time times and boost the adoption of EVs by travellers.
between the modes of transport is not considerable. However,
19Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
500 km Air Route
(e.g. Barcelona–Madrid)
Climate Impact
(in gCO2-eq/km/PAX)
Travel Cost
(in Euros/PAX)
Travel Time
(In minutes)
12 77 180 94 274 (~4h30)
Battery-Powered Electric Propulsion Airplane
Actual time on selected route
60 150 210 (~3h30)
7 63
60 291 351 (~5h45)
Electric Rail EU average intercity rail
1 passenger 16 22 38 48 108
45 362 407 (~6h45)
2 passengers 8 11 19 24 54
Electric Car
59 12 71 44 45 454 499 (~8h15)
Diesel Tour Bus
1 passenger 116 22 138 32 38 64 134
45 362 407 (~6h45)
2 passengers 58 11 69 16 19 32 67
Petrol Car
120 32 34 186 70 180 75 255 (~4h15)
Kerosene Airplane
CO2 emissions from kerosene consumption during the flight Fuel or ticket costs Flight or drive time
Notes: – ravel cost and travel time are derived
T Non-CO2 global warming impact (water, contrails, NOx, SOx) Road tolls Pre- and post-travel time: time between final destination
from EU averaged data (see appendix) and airport or train station, advised arrival time at airport
Emissions generated during the production of the required amount of kerosene wnership costs (depreciation,
O
– Travel costs are calculated per passenger, or train station, mandatory breaks during road travel
maintenance, insurance, tax)
distributing the total costs over the number of missions generated if using non-renewable energy to charge the batteries
E
passengers (for average occupancy, see appendix) or produce the required amount of hydrogen (via electrolysis in this analysis)
20Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Comparing different modes of
transport for 1000 km journeys
The speed advantage of air travel becomes evident.
In terms of emissions, the climate impact per kilometer of Therefore, compared to road and rail transport costs which grow
See analysis on next page
kerosene airplanes approaches a peak at distances of around proportionally with the distance travelled, the increase in air travel
1000 km, with the ratio of CO2 and non-CO2 related emissions cost is not as significant, and for a 1000 km travel distance, petrol
reaching a maximum. Compared to battery powered airplanes, cars and rail become the most expensive alternatives (for distance
the climate impact of hydrogen fuel-cell-powered airplanes is of 1000 km and more, it can be assumed that two passengers will
slightly more important due to the production of water when usually be present in the cars).
reacting hydrogen in fuel cells, leading to an increase in high altitude
contrails. Furthermore, the production of hydrogen requires large Longer travel routes exacerbate the different in travel time between
amounts of energy, which could lead to significant emissions ground and air transport, and air travel clearly becomes the
if non-renewable energy is used in the process. fastest option for journeys above 1000 km. Trains and tour buses
increasingly suffer from fixed segmented networks which
As distances grow, air travel benefits from improved require several stopovers to reach the final destination.
aerodynamics at high altitudes, which lowers the
average kerosene consumption over the flight.
21Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
1000 km Air Route
(e.g. Barcelona–Frankfurt)
Climate Impact
(in gCO2-eq/km/PAX)
Travel Cost
(in Euros/PAX)
Travel Time
(In minutes)
21 92 113 106 180 163 343 (~5h45)
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Propulsion Airplane
Actual time on selected route
60 719 779 (~13h00)
7 125
60 583 643 (~10h45)
Electric Rail EU average intercity rail
1 passenger 16 44 78 96 218
90 716 806 (~13h30)
2 passengers 8 22 39 48 109
Electric Car
59 12 71 87 180 1160 1340
(~22h15)
Diesel Tour Bus
1 passenger 116 22 138 66 78 130 274
90 716 806 (~13h30)
2 passengers 58 11 69 33 39 65 137
Petrol Car
93 81 19 193 98 180 130 310 (~5h15)
Kerosene Airplane
CO2 emissions from kerosene consumption during the flight Fuel or ticket costs Flight or drive time
Notes: – ravel cost and travel time are derived
T Non-CO2 global warming impact (water, contrails, NOx, SOx) Road tolls Pre- and post-travel time: time between final destination
from EU averaged data (see appendix) and airport or train station, advised arrival time at airport
Emissions generated during the production of the required amount of kerosene wnership costs (depreciation,
O
– Travel costs are calculated per passenger, or train station, mandatory breaks during road travel
maintenance, insurance, tax)
distributing the total costs over the number of missions generated if using non-renewable energy to charge the batteries
E
passengers (for average occupancy, see appendix) or produce the required amount of hydrogen (via electrolysis in this analysis)
22Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Comparing different modes of
transport for 2000 km journeys
The relevance of ground travel solutions
over longer distances is debatable
For distances of 2000 km and above, the use of hydrogen Following the trend observed for routes of 1000 km, the travel costs
See analysis on next page
combustion engines increases the need to ensure the of ground transport continue to increase for routes of 2000 km,
production of green hydrogen from renewable energy. As following a steeper curve than air travel. Hydrogen combustion
the combustion of hydrogen releases water vapour and nitrogen air travel represents one of the cheapest options, even with the
oxides at high altitude, the non-CO2 effects of airplanes powered expected increase in ticket price for first generation hydrogen
by hydrogen combustion engines become more apparent, nearing combustion aircraft compared to conventional kerosene airplanes.
the emission level of petrol powered road transport. Furthermore,
if hydrogen is produced with non-renewable energy, the combined Reaching a distance of 2000 km, the relevance of ground
emissions of a hydrogen combustion-powered airplane could even transport becomes uncertain, with travel times usually well
exceed the ones of conventional kerosene aircraft. above 24 hours, depending on the available rail network.
The fragmentation of the rail and bus network on long distances
greatly impacts the overall travel time and car travel becomes
faster than train travel on some routes.
23Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
2000 km Air Route
(e.g. Paris–Athens)
Climate Impact
(in gCO2-eq/km/PAX)
Travel Cost
(in Euros/PAX)
Travel Time
(In minutes)
43 94 137 190 180 209 389 (~6h30)
Hydrogen Combustion Propulsion Airplane
Actual time on selected route
60 1.980 2004 (~34h00)
7 250
60 1.166 1226 (~20h30)
Electric Rail EU average intercity rail
1 passenger 16 88 154 194 436
225 1608 1833 (~30h30)
2 passengers 8 44 77 97 218
Electric Car
59 12 71 175 360 1980 2340
(~39h00)
Diesel Tour Bus
1 passenger 116 22 138 130 154 258 542
225 1608 1833 (~30h30)
2 passengers 58 11 69 65 77 129 271
Petrol Car
50 75 10 135 155 180 190 370 (~6h10)
Kerosene Airplane
CO2 emissions from kerosene consumption during the flight Fuel or ticket costs Flight or drive time
Notes: – ravel cost and travel time are derived
T Non-CO2 global warming impact (water, contrails, NOx, SOx) Road tolls Pre- and post-travel time: time between final destination
from EU averaged data (see appendix) and airport or train station, advised arrival time at airport
Emissions generated during the production of the required amount of kerosene wnership costs (depreciation,
O
– Travel costs are calculated per passenger, or train station, mandatory breaks during road travel
maintenance, insurance, tax)
distributing the total costs over the number of missions generated if using non-renewable energy to charge the batteries
E
passengers (for average occupancy, see appendix) or produce the required amount of hydrogen (via electrolysis in this analysis)
24Key Takeaways and Drivers for Success
Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Action is needed now
Zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft emerge as the The broad aviation ecosystem needs to start cooperating today be fundamental in promoting both zero-carbon, zero-emissions
best solutions to seamlessly transport a large number of to ensure zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft will enter into technologies and infrastructure with targeted subsidies and
passengers throughout Europe with a low climate impact service in time to meet the industry’s decarbonization targets economic measures to accelerate the competitiveness of these
new sustainable aircraft.
As this report shows, zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft have the Time is now of the essence to ensure these technologies are ready
potential to cover a significant part of the Intra-EU passenger market to enter the large-scale commercial passenger market within short Furthermore, the large-scale deployment of battery and
by 2040, dates at which these technologies will enter into service. timelines. With development times between 15 to 20 years and hydrogen-powered aircraft will substantially increase the need
Avoiding the large emissions inherent to today’s kerosene aircraft while a broad deployment of large fleets usually taking up to 10 years, for renewable energy production. Relying on non-renewable
taking advantage of fast air travel at reasonable costs would drive zero- the aviation sector needs to invest significant resources today energy would greatly hinder the overall climate reduction
carbon and zero-emissions aircraft away from current public concerns to develop the required innovations and technologies allowing potential of these aircraft and public entities must ensure that
and provide a strong argument in favour of the development of air the sector to reach the decarbonization objectives for 2050 the future aviation sector can be supplied with sustainable
travel for the future. Even with decreased flight range compared set by the EU and ATAG. energy, along with other sustainable modes of transports.
to conventional kerosene aircraft, these future aircraft have
the potential to cover up to 89% of the intra-EU market in 2040, Policy makers, industries, and stakeholders from the broader aviation
representing a potential climate impact reduction of up to 59%. ecosystem need to cooperate to build the long-term regulatory and
certification framework supporting the successful development of zero-
When looking at different distance segments, the attractiveness of air carbon and zero-emissions technologies. The remaining uncertainties By removing the negative climate impact
travel on very short routes mainly depends on the rail network available around the extent of non-CO2 climate impact phenomena need to be
of air travel on short routes, zero-carbon
on different routes. In case two cities are connected by an efficient clarified to allow clear target setting and development roadmaps that
high-speed rail network, travelling by rail can be faster than air. When leverage the most efficient solutions. Laying out a long-term vision will and zero-emissions aircraft will significantly
less developed rail services are available, rail travel will be slower than strengthen the sector’s ability to plan the development of necessary disrupt future mobility strategies and
air alternatives, and sometimes even road travel. Furthermore, the technologies, as well as provide clarity as to where investments are
advent of all-electric VTOL and small aircraft16 in the coming years most needed. Clearer perspectives will in turn attract funds more easily position aviation at the heart of the
will also play a role in shifting parts of the ground commuting travel into innovation and pioneering R&D activities. On top of this, these new sustainable mobility ecosystem
towards the air. On longer routes, the benefits of hydrogen propulsion technologies will drive the need to develop supporting infrastructures,
aircraft are unequivocal, offering low emissions, prices in the range such as efficient battery charging/swapping systems at airports and
of other modes of transports, and travel times far below the ones of large-scale hydrogen supply chains. Public support will therefore
ground travel.
26Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
Repositioning aviation
on very short-haul travels
Due to the synergies between battery-powered aircraft and • Electric autonomous cars could become the most convenient Therefore, policy makers need to strongly support the development
other modes of transport on short routes of up to 500 km, mobility option on short distances, but road capacity challenges of battery (and hydrogen) powered airplanes for the commercial
targeted actions are required from policy makers to support the would be even more exacerbated than they are today with limited passenger market on short routes and bolster the implementation
aviation industry in fully unlocking the immense potential of network expansion possibilities. of the required battery charging/swapping and hydrogen refueling
zero-emissions propulsion technologies infrastructure on large and regional airports. At the same time, the
• A significant portion of travellers could shift to rail, but the same road infrastructure needs to be further optimized for EVs, policies
Whereas the benefits of hydrogen-powered aircraft over other capacity constraints as for road would arise and the potential encouraging carpooling have to be developed, and measures
modes of transport for routes of above 500 km is undeniable, infrastructure investments could be significant to increase increasing the capacity of the rail network need to be taken. A first step
distances below 500 km represent the most competitive segment capacities only on targeted routes. would be to investigate the infrastructure requirements to integrate
for which both ground and air transport hold compelling benefits battery- and hydrogen-powered aircraft in the existing air network and
and where the existing infrastructure between two travels points has • Battery-powered airplane could represent a true game changer compare them with investments required on the rail and road network
a significant impact on the advantage of a mode over another (i.e., by offering a sustainable and fast travel option at attractive costs to support a potential modal shift towards ground transport.
efficient rail and road network, proximity to airports). The present (which would further decrease in the future with new innovations
report highlighted the significant benefits brought by electricity and and economies of scale). Furthermore, the limited infrastructure
battery-powered modes of transport (rail, EVs, battery-powered aircraft) requirement needed to support battery swapping and charging
on short distances in terms of low emissions and climate impact, systems would boost the development of the promising network of
while offering attractive travel costs and times. These three modes all existing regional airports and unlock a seamless air travel over large With the advent of zero-emissions aircraft
represent promising solutions for the decarbonization of short-range geographies. Of course, the development of hydrogen aircraft for on routes of up to 500 km, policy makers
mobility, but imply certain obstacles to their sole domination: short routes also needs to be supported in parallel, as they would
participate in the overall decarbonization of the 500 km segment will need to define targeted mobility
by increasing the rate of kerosene aircraft replacement. strategies that leverage the benefits of
battery powered aircraft, rail, and electric
vehicles based on infrastructure and
mobility requirements
27Europe’s future aviation landscape – The potential of zero-carbon and zero-emissions aircraft on intra-European routes by 2040
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