Euro-optimism, Euro-pessimism and Democratic Deficit. An Analysis of Pro-European Attitudes - East and West.
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Euro-optimism, Euro-pessimism and Democratic Deficit. An Analysis of Pro-European Attitudes - East and West. Bogdan M Radu (ABD) Babes-Bolyai University, Romania University of California, Irvine bogdanradu2000@yahoo.com I. Introduction The European Union is a rather new form of polity. It transcends the boundaries of the nation state, to structure supranational governance. It is among the first supranational authorities constituted on non-imperialistic and voluntaristic bases. However, its well being depends on the satisfaction and willingness of the multi-national people to preserve it, and to deepen it even further. A democratic deficit is increasingly mentioned, as a label for "all-purpose" dissatisfaction with the functioning of the EU. The complaints about the EU's performance increase as the favorable attitudes decrease. Therefore, a "miracle solution" might be the import of "Euro-optimism" from the countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Moreover, EU enlargement has precedents, but the Central and Eastern European candidate countries have unique characteristics, that make the envisaged enlargement an equation with more variables than it was the case with previous enlargements. On the one hand, the countries in the region are in transition to democracy, adopting free market economies, bearing the totalitarian inheritance and considering joining the EU, all in the same time. On the other hand, the chance of starting afresh, for the CEE makes the temptation for building "perfect democracies" higher. Democratic deficit could be avoided in CEE, assuming the "democracy free" status of these countries in the past. The role of public opinion in internationalized governance will be extensively discussed below, but it is the aim of any introduction to explain the choice of the subject. Therefore, Slater notes that "one of the central issues in integration theory is that of the popular legitimacy of political institutions" (Slater, 1982, 70). And he continues "the founders of the European community were far-sighted enough to see that the long-term survival of the community in a democratic age would depend on its finding legitimacy with the general public" (Slater, 1982, 72). 1
There are different levels of identifying the democratic deficit, and a rough bi-partite taxonomy would refer to the distinction between élites and the European citizens. This paper looks at the values and attitudes of the European citizens. Furthermore, we are interested in building a general model describing what makes a European citizen be favorable towards the newly created polity. We are concerned with the individual level where favorable attitudes develop. We test those attitudes, which are related to the democratic deficit, either directly, by using questions about the democratic level of the union, or implicitly, by using questions testing the approval of an individual for his/her country to remain in the European structures. The more generous goal of this paper is to find out whether the Eastward enlargement of the European Union could reduce the democratic deficit. There are several expectations regarding this idea. The first one is that countries in Eastern Europe may develop totally different patterns of forming Euro-attitudes. In this case, depending also on what these patterns are, bringing the CEE in could be a successful strategy, as long as there is no danger of contamination, from the Western pessimism. The second expectation relates to the possibility of finding the same patterns of forming favorable attitudes in both East and West. If this is the case, one needs to refer to Klingemmann's concept of "the dissatisfied democrat". This concept defines the people's sophistication in political terms: one can be dissatisfied with a particular democratic government, while still thinking high of democracy as a long lasting goal. Therefore, it seems a good idea to accept CEE, as they have higher rates of favorable attitudes; besides the general enthusiasm about democracy, citizens in these countries are also more motivated to get into the European Union, due to other instrumental reasons. If however the patterns of forming Euro-attitudes are similar, and in Central and Eastern Europe there is no important rate of enthusiasm regarding the accession to the European Union, then bringing these people in is not useful from the democratic deficit perspective, as the same problems of dissatisfaction would persist. The reason why we are including both questions of democratic satisfaction and of general attitudes towards the EU relate to the fact that for the CEE countries it is virtually impossible to test those two things separately, as they do not have a sophisticated command of the "democratic vocabulary", neither are they members of the European people (by virtue of their countries not being integrated into the EU). The structure of the paper will thus follow the next steps: first, we will define and discuss democratic deficit, focusing on the use of the term in this analysis. Second, we will offer an extensive presentation of the literature on political attitudes, especially for the case of the EU. In this section we will also illustrate the models of attitudes formation, and the potential determinants. In the third section we will conduct our analysis, testing the models available for the Western European attitude formation against the data available in CEE. We will complement a comparative study with a longitudinal case study analysis on Romania. The justification for this case study resides in Romania's non-integrated position. Finally, we will draw conclusions and discuss the following research agenda. This paper is work in progress and all results are intermediary. 2
II. Defining, operationalising and assessing the democratic deficit Democratic deficit emerged recently as a concept in the broad context of assessing European Union's performance. However, it has a meaning in and of itself, and can thus be understood even without reference to the EU. Therefore, in this part we will define democratic deficit per se, then we will relate it with the EU, and explain its use for the purposes of this paper. In doing so, we will also refer to the Euro-skeptics and Euro- optimists, as the two extreme positions on the democratic deficit continuum. II. 1. Democratic deficit - an intuitive definition Any polity can suffer of a democratic deficit. It is precisely this truism that transformed democratic deficit in "a mere catchphrase" (Coultrap, 1999, 107). The same author uses a step-by-step process in defining democratic deficit. He starts by offering a procedural definition of democracy: “a method by which society exercises influence on the process of governmental decision making” (Coultrap, 1999, 108). The second step towards the definition of democratic deficit refers to the definition of a democratic model, a particular institutionalization of the democratic method” (Coultrap, 1999, 108). The third and final step is to emphasize the relationship between democratic deficit and a specific democratic model; democratic deficit thus occurs when "the flow of influence from the people to government is impeded in some way"(Coultrap, 1999, 108). The link between democratic deficit and democratic model is absolutely necessary, as democratic deficit can be assessed only in a given democratic context. By doing so, one avoids the danger of operating an illicit generalization: it is inappropriate to define democratic deficit according to some general standards, because democratic models could carry large differences between them. This observation is particularly important when referring to the European Union's democratic deficit. II. 2. Democratic deficit - two methods of assessing Majone (1998) theorizes on the issue of standards. He distinguishes between standard setting and standard using. The first process refers to "the technical task of measuring various dimensions of performance against given benchmarks" (Majone, 1998, 5). The latter encompasses a process of deliberation, resulting in the creation of new standards. He concludes that democratic deficit's assessment within the European Union needs new standards, because the ones used until now have been exclusively inspired from the case of the nation-state (and he considers that there is little resemblance between the nation state and the European Union). We will offer two examples of assessing European Union's democratic deficit using the nation-state standards. Our motivation resides in the fact that much literature is still using the nation state standards. Moreover, it will serve as a good basis for introducing the alternative theory of the new standards, which is also the theoretical framework we embrace in this paper. Katz notes that the democratic deficit of the European Union refers "to the weakness of the European Parliament(EP) as the only directly elected EU institution, and even more to the inability of the EP to hold European executive accountable in a manner comparable 3
to the way in which national governments are thought to be accountable in a manner comparable to the way in which national governments are thought to be accountable to their own parliaments" (Katz, 2001, 54-55). Additionally, he considers two other elements important in producing democratic deficit, namely the majority/qualified majority voting in the Council, and the non-public character of the executive sessions. Katz observes that this view of the system is based on a conception of democracy, resulting from a conjunction between two ideas, namely the popular sovereignty and party government (Katz, 2001). After developing these ideas, the author concludes that the shift of loyalties towards an international arena may cause a large part of the democratic deficit resented by the citizens in the member states: "the shift of powers to the relatively undemocratic EU undermines the quality of democracy at the national level as well, because many areas of policy are no longer under direct national, and therefore national democratic control" (Katz, 2001, 56). Katz's approach emphasizes the shift of loyalty from the national to the international authority. However, when he discusses democratic deficit he merely assumes people will preserve their "assessment-methods" for democratic deficit, and apply them when evaluating the EU. The alternative approach would consider "more knowledgeable" people, who do not blindly apply their national evaluation standards to the supra national authority. This would not necessarily be a result of their increased information and political sophistication, but could also come from a downplay of the supranational arena as opposed to the national arena, and therefore lesser expectations. Van der Eijk and Franklin bring another dimension to democratic deficit, as it is perceived by members of the European Parliament ("the elite"). They introduce the issue of European debates being fought on a ground of national problems and issues, and being thus related to the Reifian concept of second order elections. These examples make clear that citizens as well as elites resent democratic deficit. In this approach democratic deficit's measurement illustrates the use of the nation-state standards. Whoever the individual resenting and thus reporting a democratic deficit in his/her polity might be, he/she is assumed to act similarly in both national and international assessments. He or she uses tools to identify a problem, and then translates his or her expertise in a different arena. These two examples actually group together the four sub-approaches Majone identifies within the old-standards assessing frame: "standards based on the analogy with national institutions; majoritarian standards; standards derived from the democratic deficit of the Member States; social standards" (Majone, 1998, 6). He analyzes these standards, shows their inappropriateness and thus concludes "that there is a need to re-set the standards by which we assess the legitimacy of European integration and of the institutions that guide the process" (Majone, 1998, 6). This inappropriateness comes from the fact that the EU might not resemble the nation state, but rather a federal system. Consequently, assessments of its democratic performance should be done by comparing it with with the more similar system (i.e. the federal system). In this respect Coultrap goes further. He argues that the European Union is more like a 4
pluralist than a parliamentary system (as it has long been considered). He parallels the EU with the North American "pluralist-democracy". It seems that the EU has all the traits of the American system has: weak parties, a lack of strong government, "relatively autonomous yet interrelated decision-making institutions", and autonomous subsystem governments (Coultrap, 117). II. 3. Euro-skeptics and Euro-optimists If one measures democratic deficit in terms of public opinion and this is our approach here, one notices that there is a continuum, which has as its ends Euro-skeptics and Euro- optimists. We will discuss both the categories at this stage of the study. One may talk about Euro-optimists and Euro-skeptics. The euro-philes are those who endorse a favorable view of the union itself, and thus they "share explicit rejection of the idea that there is no meaningful European culture upon which a supra-national identity might be based" (Haesly, 2001, 82). The same author draws a distinction between euro-philes and instrumental Europeans: the first group "enthusiastically endorse all aspects of European integration", while the second "support only specific aspects of European integration" (Haesly, 2001, 82). While it is banal to coin this term as public approval of the EU, and general support for it, it is efficient to characterize it in opposition to its antonym, Euro-pessimism. Taggart (1998) offers a clear account of what Euro-skepticism is: "Euro-skepticism expresses the idea of contingent or qualified opposition, as well as incorporating outright and unqualified opposition to the process of European integration" (Taggart, 1998, 366). He further mention three types of opposition towards the European Union: the anti- integration position of those being against the "very idea of EU" "those that are not in principle opposed to European integration but are skeptical that the EU is the best form of integration because it is too inclusive", and finally those that do not generally oppose the EU "but are skeptical that the EU is the best form of integration because it is too exclusive" (Taggart, 1998, 365-366). While the first category consists of people who are generally opposing the EU as a form of polity, and thus do not recognize any of it merits, the second category refers to those opposing enlargement towards the East. The third category would group together those, which are generally favorable towards the enlargement. The levels of popularity of these types of support within the European Union are the ones for our research. If we find a significant share of those who oppose the European Union because it is too exclusive, than this is a group which may be favorable to the enlargement; thus, if this group is significant, even the idea of enlarging the union would be considered as a potential reducer of democratic deficit. III. Attitude formation and attitude preservation. The aim of this section is to define, characterize and operationalise attitudes towards the European Union as a particular form of international regime. Additionally, consistent space will be allocated to determinants of these attitudes, a quasi-exhaustive attempt to identify causal factors in determining favorable attitudes towards the European Union. In 5
the end, we hope to be able to offer a clear account of the most important and generally applicable determinants of Euro-attitudes (hereafter defined as favorable attitudes towards the European Union). While the emphasis has been traditionally on analyzing public opinion and national political regimes, there is an increasing trend of emphasizing people's view of a polity in the international realm as well. Consequently, the structure of the chapter will be threefold: the first section will establish a liaison between public opinion and internationalized governance, thus presenting different theoretical frameworks, focusing on the case of the European Union. The second section will offer a taxonomy of attitudes, in the EU case. Finally, the third section will consider different causal factors in developing Euro-attitudes (as they were defined in the previous chapter). III. 1. Public opinion and internationalized governance - the theory behind them In order to analyze the role of public opinion in the international arena, one needs to define the international arena. In a more systematic way, the international regime refers to different aspects of the international arenas. Therefore, we will start by presenting a definition of international regimes: "sets of implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules, and decision making procedures around which actors' expectations converge in a given area on international relations" (Krasner in Sinnott, 1995, 25). At a first glance it seems that international regimes and individual attitudes are fairly remote from one another. However this may not be the case for two reasons. First, international regimes are drafted and endorsed by significant segments of the national and international elite, and therefore encompass attitudes. This being the case, elite's opinions are taken into account, even if they do not structure the regime per se. Second, the principles and norms held by the elite are not necessarily impermeable or opposed to trends in public opinion. In this respect, we could point to the channels people may use in order to influence elite's attitudes. An international regime is subject to the variation of cultural trends and of the changing place of the individual in the contemporary society. Rosenau makes a valid point emphasizing the role of individuals in the field of international relations "the micro level of individuals has to be integrated into the analysis [of the emerging global order] because structures at the macro level seem increasingly vulnerable to shifts in the skills and orientations of the publics they encompass" (Rosenau in Sinnott, 1995, 27). Furthermore, he notes people's increased awareness and analytical skills, as well as the highly interdependent character of the world. Sinnott develops the last argument, and thus asserts that this enhanced awareness and increasing interference of individuals in the international sphere might actually result in a public "demand for international regimes" (Sinnott, 1995, 28). Finally, Robert Putnam also includes public opinion in presenting "a more adequate account of the domestic determinants of foreign policy and international relations"(Putnam in Sinnott, 1995, 29). To conclude, there is a convergent point of all the authors mentioned, namely that "domestic public opinion may impel or constrain moves towards internationalized governance, whether these moves are comprehensive and robust, s in the case of European 6
integration, or partial and tentative, as in the case with most international regimes" (Sinnott, 1995, 29). Although public opinion is relevant in the realm of internationalized governance, more via the milieu of the domestic arena, people's attitudes towards international issues is beyond question. Furthermore, the role played by the domestic arena, as a filter/recipient of public attitudes resulted in valuable research mentioned in the following sections. The role played by the public opinion in the evolution of the European Union resulted in a three-phase evolution. The first is located in the early '60s, and refers to initial efforts of building a European polity. This phase is thus related to theories such as transactionalism, intergovernmentalism and neo-functionalism. The second stage refers to the revisionist trend of the late '60s and the Euro-stagnation of the '70s (caused among others by the empty chair crisis and the French refusal of the British accession into the EU). Finally, the third evolutionary level is the current resurrection of the role of public opinion. III. 1.1. The initial phase of the 1960s Richard Sinnott (1995) refers to two theories of integration (transactionalism and neo- functionalism) and two theories of disintegration (core vs. periphery and the obstinate nation state). Transactionalism and neo-functionalism can be looked at as being complementary. The first theory finds echo in the works of Karl Deutsch. The emphasis is on the role played by the sense of community, and the acquisition of a "we" feeling, which is "a matter of mutual sympathies and loyalty; of 'we feeling', trust and mutual consideration; of partial identification in terms of self-images and interests; of mutually successful predictions of behavior, and of co-operative action in accordance with it..." (Deutsch et al in Sinnott, 1995, 13). However, as Sinnott notes, the failure of this theoretical approach lies in its impossibility to explain integration itself. The neo-functionalist attempt to explain integration and, in the same time, to encompass public opinion fails, but for a rather different reason. Haas and Schmitter defines of political integration is as: "the process whereby political actors in several distinct national settings are persuaded to shift loyalties, expectations and political activities toward a new center, whose institutions possess or demand jurisdiction over the pre-existing national states" (Haas in Sinnott, 1995, 14). Without going into further detail, one has to acknowledge the fact that neofunctionalist theory refers to elite and leading groups initiatives in causing one integrated sector to spill over into other sectors, and thus precludes any possible action by mass public. Therefore one can say that neo-functionalist theories deliberately minimize the role of public opinion. In opposition to the integration theories, there are examples of theories predicting rather disintegration of the European polity, as a result of shifting loyalties or globalization and modernization of communicational channels. As an example, the conflict core vs. periphery could result in disintegrating the EU polity, if one considers the increasing differences between geographic regions, overlapping existing cultural differences. AS Sinnott notes, there is rather a tendency towards secessionism than towards integration: "In the case of core-periphery conflict theory, then, there is just one key proposition: uneven industrialization produces core-periphery inequalities, which, if allied to significant cultural 7
differences, produces secessionist tendencies" (Sinnott, 1995, 16). Additionally, Hoffman's theory of the obstinate nation-state (1965) accentuates the role of cultural variables and of the public opinion in determining integration processes. Summarizing this first stage of integration development, the theories acknowledge the importance of the public opinion, but as the initial project of building a European Union was led by elites interested in promoting peace within Europe, the influence of mass public attitudes to the core of the system was weak. III. 1.2. The revisionist phase In the second, i.e. revisionist phase authors promoting the elite action in the early '60s start to acknowledge the importance of mass attitudes. It is the case of both Haas and Schmitter. Haas (1971) points to the problems of linking "the variables that describe the rate of transaction between units with variables that describe the attitudes of masses and members of the elites" (Haas, 26-30, in Sinnott, 1995, 19). A major link is thus considered to be the social learning. Schmitter introduces more elements of public opinion as well; while he still refers mainly to elites, the way he operationalises the concept of elite, whether narrower or broader, leave space to more mass participation (in Schmitter, 1971, 233, in Sinnott, 1995, 20). A major contribution is brought by Nye, and his concept of attitudinal integration: "the concept of integration must be dissaggregated into economic, social and political dimensions. Each of these dimensions is further subdivided: economic integration into trade and common services; social integration into mass and elite level; and political integration into institutional, policy, security-community, and attitudinal" (Nye in Sinnott, 1995, 20). He conceives a revised neo-functionalist model, in which public opinion intervenes at two points. Attitudinal integration is viewed as a process mechanism, and is therefore described as an identitive appeal. The role of mass opinion in the domestic arena creates the legitimacy of the integration programs in a specific country. Nye enumerates four conditions likely to characterize the integration process over time: politicization, redistribution, reduction of alternatives, and externalization. Public opinion intersects especially with the politicization, when it comes to "broadening of the arena of participants" (Nye, 1971, 89, in Sinnott, 1995, 21). III. 1.3. The 1980s and the commencement of the public opinion era Finally, the third phase institutionalizes the role of public opinion In the eighties, "sentiment and culture play a prominent role" (Sinnott, 1995, 23). "Expectations, common identity or consciousness, and a 'sense of community' are acknowledged to be essential elements of political integration but, as noted earlier, they are 'the most contested, because the most difficult to measure'" (Wallace in Sinnott, 1995, 23; Wallace inspired herself rather from Deutsch than neofunctionslism). These developments led authors like Keohane and Hoffmann - a synthesis of neofunctionalism and intergovernmentalism - to assert that "successful spillover requires prior programmatic agreement among governments, expressed in an intergovernmental bargain" (Keohane and Hoffmann in Sinnott, 1995, 24). The importance of public opinion 8
appears in some points along their thesis: the domestic backlashes (revolts against the economic hardships the single market might impose on certain sectors), the problem of democratic deficit, and various paradoxes: "integrated economies and separate politics, elaborate process of multinational bargaining coexisting with an obstinately national process of political life and elections, the paradox of the emergence of a European identity on the world scene coexisting with continuing national loyalties" (Keohane and Hoffmann in Sinnott, 1995, 24). In conclusion, even if we acknowledge a very important role for the elites in the process of integration, there still remains a need to incorporate public opinion. In the following lines, we will refer to the concept of attitude. III. 2. Decomposing the concept of attitude Jo Saglie (2000) discusses the difference between attitudes and perceptions. Although Niedermeyer and Westle (1995) dismiss the difference on grounds of insufficient distinctiveness, we find Saglie's approach persuasive. The author analyses three interrelated concepts: values, attitudes and perceptions. He considers the difference between the first two constructs as straightforward, and thus does not elaborate any further: "values usually refer to general goals, whereas attitudes are evaluative orientations towards specific objects" (Saglie, 2000, 229). The distinction between perceptions and attitudes is more complex; according to the author the first are "cognitive and descriptive" while the second are "affective and evaluative" (Saglie, 2000, 229). Furthermore, he points out that the rational way of conceptualizing this tripartite relationship (attitudes-values-perceptions) is to assume that "a person's attitude to the EU follows from his or her values and perceptions" (Saglie, 2000, 229). However, the process might not be so straightforward, and it is more accurate to consider a mutual influential relationship between values, perceptions and attitudes (especially for the latter two). For our perspective it is relevant to note the possibility of a continuous interplay between the three concepts. The countries in CEE find themselves in a period when they need to redefine/reinvent parts of their values, and thereby to develop new attitudes. Due to the dismantling of the communist regime and the void of political values (values compatible with the democracy to be). Therefore, it seems that the Central and Eastern European countries could develop a "parallel" process of building attitudes and values, as both concepts emerge in the same time. However, a conflicting situation arises: perceptions of political events (including the EU as a new polity) might be prone to excessive critique, since satisfaction with the new democracy is not expected to be high (especially due to the poor economic consequences of the transition). Therefore, one has to question the path of forming attitudes: values could indicate the praise of democracy, while the perceptions might in fact illustrates high dissatisfaction with democracy. Hans Dieter Klingemann (1998) proves that the concept of dissatisfied democrats is the key solution in this case. He argues, based on empirical evidence, that people in CEE are capable of discerning between democracy as a form of political regime, and a particular democratic government. According to him, people in CEE can be highly dissatisfied with 9
the way democracy is working in their countries, while holding in the same time, deep democratic values. This finding is particularly important because it reduces the risk of bias induced by highly dissatisfied publics in Central and Eastern Europe, on their assessment of the European Union. The necessity of classifying attitudes is proved by itself: in order to assess people's support for the EU we have to know how to record this support and also what are its highest, respectively its lowest limits. Niedermeyer and Westle (1995) refer first to two main types of attitudes towards internationalized governance, and then narrow down the topic to the case of the European Union. The two important perspectives in the study of attitudes towards political regimes, in general, belong to Almond and Verba(1963, 1980), and respectively to David Easton(1965, 1975). III. 2.1. Almond and Verba on political attitudes Almond and Verba formulated their perspective in 1963, and then revisited their theory in 1980, operating relevant changes. The role of political culture in determining the role of public opinion is, we think, beyond question. In their first work they define political culture: "the particular distribution of patterns of orientations toward political objects among the members of a nation" (Almond and Verba in Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 33). They distinguished between objects and modes of orientations. The modes of orientations consist of three different elements: cognition, affects and evaluations. The political objects are different in their relation with the political system in general, input objects, output objects and the self as a political actor. The combination of modes and orientations resulted in a well-known matrix, whose cells represent different types of political culture - parochial, subject and participant. In their reformulation of the theory in 1980, they changed their opinion: the modes of orientation are interrelated aspects of the one and the same attitudinal phenomenon. The other dimension of the matrix is placed under the heading of substantive content, including system culture, process culture and policy culture. They distinguish between system, process and policy culture. The system culture is the broadest, and includes attitudes towards the national community, the regime, the authorities, the legitimacy of a certain regime, and the legitimacy of the incumbents in particular roles (Almond and Verba, 1980, 28). The process culture includes attitudes about the self and about the other actors in the game. It brings into discussion the issue of trust and cooperation (Almond and Verba, 1980, 28). Finally, the policy culture refers to "the distribution of preferences regarding the outputs and outcomes of politics, the ordering among different groupings in the population of such political values as welfare, security and liberty" (Almond and Verba, 1980, 28, in Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 35). III. 2.2. Easton on attitudes. Easton's approach towards attitudes is best illustrated in his theory of political systems (1965). Easton describes three components of a political system, which can become objects of support: the political community, the regime, and the political authorities (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 36). The political community consists of "that aspect of a political 10
system that consists of its members seen as a group of persons bound together by a political division of labor" (Easton, 1965, 177). In turn, the regime consists of three elements: the values of its political philosophy, the norms of the political order, and the structure of authority rules (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 36). Finally, the political authorities are the occupants of authority roles (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 36). Additionally, Easton distinguishes between diffuse and specific support - "diffuse support denotes a generalized evaluation, whereas specific support means an output- directed evaluation" (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 36). The diffuse support takes different forms depending on the object: 1. In relation with the political community, support is thought of as a primarily affective feeling of identity or loyalty. 2. In relation with the regime it is conceived as two dimensions ideological and value- oriented beliefs concerning the institutional structure and trust or sympathy as a spillover from ideological or even instrumental evaluations of outputs. 3. In relation with political authorities it is ideologically based trust (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 37). III. 2.3. Modes of Orientation Niedermeyer and Westle first define what the modes of orientation are, then they develop a scheme to locate them within the broader concept of attitudes, and finally they place them into categories: "We define orientations as anything people have in mind with respect to a specific object" (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 44). Social psychology presents us with two views on attitudes: 1. the multi-component view - connected with theories such as cognitive-consistency theory, or the theory of cognitive dissonance. "In this view, attitudes are seen as comprising three components: cognitive, affective, and behavioral. An underlying attitude is indicated when these components show some consistency" (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 45). 2. one-dimensional definition of attitudes - "narrowly defined as categorizations of an object along an evaluative and/or affective dimension which should be measured on a bi-polar scale of affect" (la fel). Fishbein and Ajzen (1975) make a distinction between beliefs, attitudes, behavioral intentions, and behavior. The two approaches share the fact that they both consider attitudes as hypothetical constructs, "forming an enduring predisposition to respond in a consistently positive of negative way to a given object" (nw, 1995, 44). Another approach is used in the analysis of attitudes towards the EC, by Hewstone in 1986. However, the authors do not consider it flawless, and criticize the weak distinction between beliefs and attitudes. They identify to be two paths to break this deadlock: A. "the evaluative nature of attitudes and the non-evaluative, rather rational and neutral character of beliefs, which simply represent subjective knowledge of an object". 11
B. "the affective, generalized, and enduring nature of an attitude and the singular, (potentially) evaluative character of a belief" (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 46). The authors offer support for this second view. In this case attitudes serve as a filter for beliefs. However they will build their own model, as none of these mentioned models prove to be satisfactory. For Niedermeyer and Westle the modes of orientation represent the positions that people can take when relating to objects. Therefore, they distinguish three modes of orientation: 1. psychological involvement is the weakest and most passive form, and thus comprises "neutral knowledge of and about an object, interest in it, the salience of it, and non- normative expectations related to it" (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 48). This mode is non-evaluative. 2. evaluations involve those positions which necessarily entangle the distinction between good and bad (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 48). These modes could be long lasting and enduring or short term and changeable: "an evaluation is the result of a normative idea about how an object should be or should act and perceptions of how the object really is or acts" (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 48). Evaluations could be made directly, through positive/negative judgement, or indirectly through formulating a demand. They take Easton's approach into consideration, making the difference between specific and diffuse evaluations. 3. behavioral intentions "include all actions which might be taken with different degrees of subjective probability in regard to a particular object"(Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 50). Eg: the intention to vote, the intention to join a party III. 2.4. Objects of support Among the existing objects of support, Lindberg and Scheingold (1970) distinguish between the political collectivity, the political order, the political authorities, and policies. The political collectivity is primarily defined in Easton's terms, thus emphasising the role played by the division of labor- "that aspect of internationalized governance which consists of its members seen as a group of countries and their peoples, bound together by a political division of labor" (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 41). The unit of analysis and the issue of membership need more elaboration though. The unit of analysis is important in the sense that people are members to more than one political community. Furthermore, there are different types of membership. States are members, but individuals, their citizens, are members as well: "Whereas the territorial element can be described as primarily a political factor, the personal element of the political collectivity in our concept can be described in terms of the 'social' or 'socio-political system'"(Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 42). The personal element of the political collectivity refers to the inclusion of "not only 'others' but also 'the self' as an object" (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 42). The self includes responding individuals and the people of their own country. In relation with internationalized governance, both territorial and personal aspects of the collectivity will be included in the analysis. The political order - "refers to the organization of the political division of labor within 12
the collectivity" (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 43). It consists of two elements - its political philosophy and its institutional structure. The first focuses on general values and norms in the realm of internationalized governance (Niedermeyer ad Westle, 1995, 43). The institutional structure refers to the horizontal and vertical power scheme. The political authorities are "the occupants of the political roles at the international level" (Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 43). They should change, at least in a democratic system. The policy component refers to "substantive" issues in the internationalized governance "In addition to policy plans, outputs, and outcomes, this component includes orientations towards the functional scope of a specific form of internationalized governance; that is, the range of substantive policies to be dealt with at the international level" (Niedemeyer and Westle, 1995, 44). III. 2.3. Attitudes towards the EU Turning to the more specific case of the EU, Lindberg and Scheingold (1970) conceptualize a framework of analysis for studying orientations towards the EC. The same steps will be followed, as in the previous sub-chapter related this time with Euro-attitudes. Lindberg and Scheingold differentiate between identitive and systemic support "identitive support 'gauges what might be termed "horizontal" interaction among the broader publics of the system, while systemic support probes "vertical" relations between the system and these publics" (Lindberg and Scehingold in Niedermeyer and Westle, 1995, 38). Furthermore they divide the systemic support between community and regime. The political community, in their view, preserves Easton's division of political labor element. However they relate it to the EU, thereby questioning the scope of the system (Lindberg and Scheingold, 1970, 40). The regime "refers to the nature of the political system and, therefore, directs us to such issues as the extent of supranational authority and the division of power among the institutions of the Community" (Lindberg and Scheingold, 1970, 40). The issue of modes of orientation marks the differences between utilitarian and affective support: the utilitarian mode is related to some "concrete interest", while the affective mode indicates "a diffuse and perhaps emotional response to some of the vague ideals embodied in the notion of European unity" (Lindberg and Scheingold, 1970, 40). The authors build upon David Easton's dichotomy between diffuse and utilitarian support. However, while Easton deals exclusively with political orientations, Lindberg and Scheingold focus mainly on social orientations. The authors adopt the structure with objects and modes of orientation, Easton developed. Moreover, they refer to more than political orientations. Linberg and Scheingold distinguish between attitudes towards the EU as a one-issue concept, and attitudes towards its components. In the following we will refer to objects of support and modes of orientation respectively. III. 3. Determinants of Euro-attitudes The third part of this chapter regards the determinants of Euro-attitudes. There is a 13
wide variety of such causing factors, and they can be grouped in two categories. However, we will first present the two possible ways of forming attitudes, in respect with the two important actors, the elites and the general public. Second, we will offer the socio- demographic determinants. Third we will refer to economic determinants. We refer just to these two important classes of attitudes because they group the most relevant models developed in the literature until now. III. 3.1. Bubbling up or trickling down Wessels clearly introduces the two competing arguments in this respect, namely the pull and the push models: "in one, elites pull publics; in the other, publics push elites" (Wessels, 1995, 137). Following Wessels, we offer a brief encounter of the two arguments. The elite driven process of building attitudes refers to different cascade model, as a metaphor to explain the flow of information from the elite to the mass public. First, Deutsch envisage a five stage model, the flow of information starting with the socio- economic elites, and "trickling-down" trough political elites, mass media, the net of opinions leaders, until the "relevant strata of the society " (Wessels, 1995, 137-8). Second, Rosenau operates changes to the original five step model, thus building a four step one: "news and interpretations of an event are first carried by, say, a newspaper; this then is read and adapted by opinion makers, who assert (step 2) their opinions in speeches on the subject that are reported (step 3) by the press and thereupon picked up by 'opinion leaders' in the general public who in turn pass on (step 4) the opinions through word-of-mouth" (Rosenau in Wessels, 1995, 138). Finally the third quoted model is built by Lazarsfeld, Berelson, and Gaudet (1944) who design the simplest two step model in which "opinion flows from the mass media to the public via opinion leaders" (we, 1995, 138). The opposed argument is strongly advocated by Inglehart who "seems to suggest that, by means of intergenerational valued change and increasing political mobilization the process of European integration has become 'mass pushed'" (Wessels, 1995, 139). After testing Deutsch's cascade model hypothesis on existing Eurobarometer data, the author found confirmation: the development of support is more congruent between opinion leaders and the highly attentive publics than between opinion leaders and the less attentive strata of society" (Wessels, 1995, 161). Trying to include the mass-pushed model assumptions, the author found that the party supporters influence the direction and content of the party manifesto, given that in a small amount. The correlative influence from the party manifesto to the public is consistently higher. The mobilizing efforts deployed by the party elites are thus important for building more substantial support: the inference is that a system of internationalized governance such as the EC could not expect support if there were nom political elites, political parties, and attentive publics who care about it" (Wessels, 1995, 162). And this stands true even if "there is a discrepancy between the EC orientations of party supporters and the position of parties regarding the EC" (Wessels, 1995, 161). III. 3.2. Socio-demographic determinants A first set of determinants is related to the commonly used socio-demographic determinants. In this context we discuss the relevance of age, education, social status in 14
determining various levels of EU support. The present study deal, with each of these variables in turn, and add also the religious variable. The research incorporates Inglehart's thesis of value change and generational replacement and Wessels' thesis of intra-societal diffusion. According to Wessels, the pre-condition for developing and attitude lies in the awareness that there is something to attitudinally relate to. Accordingly, Wessels finds that higher education/more specialized education has a positive impact on awareness (Wessels 109). Gender also seems to play a role, with men usually being more involved in politics. The issue of age brings into discussion the two theses mentioned above. Inglehart thus "formulated the hypothesis of persisting age group differences in support for European integration, with the implication that, in the long run, these will lead to an increase in support through generational replacement (Wessels 106) "a fundamental change in values and attitudes was taking place among the mass publics of the Western European nations, especially among the younger age cohorts. Pro-Europeanisation and support for European institutions was part of this value change. For Inglehart, acquisition of supportive attitudes and the perception of legitimacy for a particular political system is the result of a socialization process" (Inglehart, in Handley, 1981, 337). Inglehart also developed the concept of cognitive mobilization, relating to peoples' abilities to "identify with complex and remote political situations, institutions and systems", (Handley, 1981, 338); "cognitive mobilization leads people, on an increasing scale, to identify with a European polity: it is a function of individual and social prosperity permitting access to skills (e.g. higher formal education) necessary for integration into increasingly complex social and political communication channels" (Handley, 1981, 338). In opposition to this theory, Wessels develops the hypothesis of intra-societal diffusion: "the first implication of this idea is that awareness of the EC and access to this still remote institution have a tendency to become less dependent than they were on political skills, knowledge, involvement, and the like. In other words, differences in orientations between particular segments of society tend to decrease over time. The second implication is that attitudes towards the EC, whether favourable or not, become more consensual among mass public within and across countries" (Wessels, 1995, 106). Nelsen, Guth and Fraser (2001) emphasize the role of religion in shaping public support for the EU. They operationalise levels of religiosity by church attendance, and hypothesize that higher levels of religiosity result in higher rates of support in the case of Catholicism, and works the opposite in the case if Protestants. The differences reside in the approach towards integration that the two churches have: "in the early years integration and religion, especially Catholicism, were explicitely linked, theoretically and politically" (Nelsen et al, 2001, 193). "The Protestant countries are reluctant to abandon sovereignity for historical and political reasons, including an ancient distrust of 'Catholic Europe'" (Nelsen et al, 2001, 193). Catholicism is uniting (i.e. the role of the Pope) while the Protestants are more locally organized. Wessels’ conclusion is thus the following: assuming that the EU is an innovation gathering popularity via diffusion, it seems that the traditional socio-demographic variables loose their importance in determining levels and intensity of support. However, while this gap is increasingly reducing, political factors are still important. The author thus mentions three variables causing the coming into existence of different groups as being relevant for 15
differentiated support for the EU: left-right orientations, the materialist-postmaterialist split, and the party affiliation (Wessels, 1995, 135). III. 3.3. The economic explanation One interpretation is that a type of economic calculus determines the evaluation people make of the European Union. Bosch and Newton (1995) conducted a study referring particularly to this topic; they were questioning the assumption of whether EU citizens evaluate their supranational polity in economic terms, or in more idealistic concepts. They mention a fairly strong line of analysis emphasizing this utilitarian aspect of support. Inglehart and Rabier are important in this line of argument with their affirmation that "favourable economic payoffs are conducive to - perhaps even essential to - the processes of national and supranational integration"(Inglehart and Rabier, 1978, 69). Nye also mentions the importance of perceiving economic advantages as producs/by-products of the integration (Nye in Bosch and Newton, 1995, 73). Finally, Dalton and Eichenberg (1993) clarify the utilitarian model of support for the EU. They find that specific national circumstances determine people's evaluation of the EU. Dalton and Eichenberg focus on pubic opinion towards the EU in the '70s and '80s, and the factors impeding on these attitudes. The authors conceptualise public opinion "as a function of both domestic and international conditions - economic and political" (Dalton and Eichenberg, 1993, 509). They indicate two groups of countries, which have persistently behaved differently in relation to their support for European integration. The first group is formed by Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, Federal Republic of Germany, and for this group the percent of those supporting European integration remained more or less around 60% during the '70s and the '80s. The second group comprises Denmark, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, and their correspondent percent of support oscillated between less than 10% and 30%, with a clear increase in the late '80s. Dalton's and Eichneberg's earlier hypothesis indicated a relationship between national, basic economic conditions and attitudes towards the EU. Therefore, in this article, they analyze the following independent variables: the effects of national economic conditions (inflation, unemployment, GDP), international exchanges and the balance of costs and benefits from integration, national traditions and political events.(Dalton and Eichenberg, 1993, 520). This analysis indicates that inflation is the strongest predictor: "a 1 percent increase in the inflation rate produces a decrease in net support for the community of almost 2 percent" (Dalton and Eichenberg, 1993, 521). Unemployment and overall condition of a national economy are not highly related with support, "possibly because EC policies initiatives in these areas are less direct or substantial than those that affect prices" (Dalton and Eichenberg, 1993, 522). We will apply this approach when analysing the data available for CEE. However, we do not think the indicators Dalton and Eichenberg use are valuable in our case mainly because the economies of CEE are weak, and inflation is a common reality. Moreover, the CEE countries are not part of the EU, so that they cannot equate economig gains or losses with the membership thereof. However, questions about the economic situation of the countries and the gains the membership could bring are valuable. 16
A different body of literature has argued that citizens' support for the European Union is determined by their affects rather than by pragmatic economic calculus. As in the first section of this chapter, one needs to refer to the sense of community people experience, and their related trust. In Easton's words, it is all about a diffuse-affective type of support. Bosch and Newton thus perceive these two potential explanation of support as complementary, and thus assert: "mass opinion anything as large and complex as the European Community is highly likely to be based upon a mixture of different factors and dispositions, ranging from naked economic self-interest, through sociotropic calculations of an economic nature, to considerations of an idealistic kind" (Bosch and Newton, 1995, 75). Their conclusion confirms their initial assumption and perceptions. They found that the EU integration is not largely evaluated in economic terms. Also, "support seems to be associated more strongly with social and attitudinal variables of a non-economic kind" (Bosch and Newton, 1995, 101). Additionally, diffuse and more affective determinants of the EU support are more important than specific economic reasons. They affirm the existence of a deeply rooted mechanism of generating more trust over the years, especially in the original six member states. Economic calculus remains important not in terms of individual strategies, but rather in terms of "anticipated national benefits" (Bosch and Newton, 1995, 102). One comment needs to be made here: there is considerable stability of support for the EU, independent of changes in the economic or political realm, and this indicates a rather low level of saliency of the EU topic in the Euro-citizens' lives (Bosch and Newton, 1995, 103). This last point relates though with the question political information and interest, which will be treated with in another part of this chapter. Matthew Gabel introduces a rather different approach, based on micro-economics "citizens of the European Union form attitudes towards EU membership - an international economic policy - that are consistent with their occupation-based economic interests" (Gabel, 1998, 936). This is complementary to Dalton's and Eichenberg's approach, macro- economic approach. His findings confirm the hypotheses, and challenge the conclusions early studies of public opinion had (mainly Rosenau saying that citizens' opinions are generally incoherent): "EU citizens also form coherent opinions on internationals affairs" (Gabel, 1998, 950). The conclusions one can draw at the end of this section on economic determinants of the favorable Euro-attitudes is that both the macro and the micro economic determinants influence the formation of favorable European attitudes. It is rather unimportant whether the economic calculus is the only form of forming attitudes, or the latter are related with deeper feelings of trust. What matters is that in both case, economic determinants have an impact both on micro and macro level of economics. IV. Developping European attitudes in CEE The section's aim is to introduce the main trends of support for the EC, observe their measurement, and then replicate the study for data available for CEE countries. It builds upon some of the macro-level hypothesis discussed in previous chapters in order to explain and to compare public opinion attitudes in different countries. It also refers to the moment represented by the signing of the Maastrischt Treaty in this framework. We will first refer to the existing measures of attitudes in the West. Second, we will present the available data 17
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