Euler Hermes UK Risk Bulletin - #8 September 2011 - Retail Special Issue

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Euler Hermes UK Risk Bulletin - #8 September 2011 - Retail Special Issue
Euler Hermes UK
Risk Bulletin
#8 September 2011 - Retail Special Issue
Euler Hermes UK Risk Bulletin - #8 September 2011 - Retail Special Issue
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Euler Hermes UK Risk Bulletin - #8 September 2011 - Retail Special Issue
Foreword

Kris Macauley              Welcome to a special Retail edition of the Euler Hermes UK Risk Bulletin. We
Head of Risk Information   previously took an in-depth look at Retail just after Christmas but thought it
                           necessary to highlight the sector again in view of the continued pressures and
                           steady stream of bad news emanating from the sector in recent months. The fact
                           that the insolvency rate in Retail has increased 13% from full year 2010 to H1 2011
                           in itself is a sign. But probably more alarming is the fact that listed retailers have
                           issued 26 profit warnings in H1 2011, more than in all of 2010 and nearly twice as
                           many as in all of 2009. Put another way - more than 1 in 6 of listed retailers have
                           had to issue a profits warning. And the summer period has shown no declination
                           in this trend, with the European debt crisis and impact of the riots adding to the
                           challenges faced in the sector.

                           The corollary to serious pain on the high street is that – almost predictably -
                           serious pain will progressively filter elsewhere. We saw this in all past recessions
                           or downturns, when a slump in Retail led the way for other sectors to follow.
                           As each week passes, the potential for a double dip scenario seemingly increases.
                           The Retail sector performance is currently doing little to help. Hand in hand with
                           Retail fortunes is the Travel sector and at their busiest time of year, we take the
                           opportunity to evaluate its state of health.

                           We also continue our series on Export, with a special focus on BRIC and India in
                           particular. With UK conditions stagnant, exporting continues to provide a more
                           compelling case for economic recovery.

                           As always, when economic pressures increase, there are always winners and
                           losers, good companies in tough sectors and bad companies in good sectors. Our
                           role, with our teams of analysts is to identify those, thus protecting our clients
                           and – over the cycle – supporting them in reducing the total cost of risk. You will
                           read in this issue the story of our client Brilliant Media and its involvement in the
                           TJ Hughes insolvency as a particular example of the support credit insurance can
                           offer. In these difficult times, no doubt there will be winners and losers. By using
                           credit insurance, we believe our clients will maximise their chance of counting
                           themselves amongst the winners.
Euler Hermes UK Risk Bulletin - #8 September 2011 - Retail Special Issue
Contents
Sector focus
Retail                          1

Export focus
India - BRIC Foundations        2

Sector focus
Travel                          4

Regional focus
Republic of Ireland:
Retail fears realised           5

Retail Case Study
Brilliant Media and TJ Hughes   6

Sectors under pressure
It’s not just Retail            8
Euler Hermes UK Risk Bulletin - #8 September 2011 - Retail Special Issue
Sector focus:
                            Retail
Christine Brennan           In the previous Retail trade sector update (issue 6 - March 2011) we
Risk Underwriting Manager
Non-Food Retail and
                            predicted that the ongoing resilience of the UK Retail Sector would
Textiles                    be severely tested in 2011. Unfortunately our prediction has proven
                            true.

Retail sales grew by 0.8% month on month          Retailers selling furniture, carpets, white
in June; however, the underlying pattern in       goods and electricals continue to find the
the monthly growth rate has been flat since       current trading conditions challenging.
the start of the year. Food store sales grew by
just 1.3% in the year to June 2011 as the large   The UK electrical goods retailers have to
increases in prices led to the sharpest drop      cope with aggressive price deflation and
in volumes since records began. In contrast       margin erosion which are exacerbated by
non-store retailing grew by 23.6%. Indeed         competition from the supermarkets and
the internet now accounts for £1 in every £10     low cost internet operators. The iPad has
of retail sales. Mobiles with internet access     provided some respite and tablet PC sales
are powering a shopping revolution.               have been strong. However, these have come
                                                  at the expense of reduced laptop sales and
Consumer confidence dropped again in              advances in mobile phone technology has
July to its lowest level since March 2009 as      reduced demand for digital cameras and
the squeeze on disposable incomes and the         MP3 players. The music market continues its
uncertainty over the future economic and          transformation as consumers migrate from
financial situation weighed on sentiment.         CDs to digital downloads and free music
Deteriorating conditions in the Eurozone          streaming services.
and sharp falls in global stock markets in
recent times will have increased consumers’       Retailers loaded with onerous debt
anxiety.                                          obligations and bullish growth targets
                                                  which were set at the top of the credit cycle
Many retailers brought forward their              are finding life difficult.
summer sales and embarked on strong
promotional campaigns to stimulate                Additionally, some specialist retailers who
demand. Aggressive price cuts and extended        aggressively expanded their store portfolio
summer sales will have a negative impact          in the last 10 years not anticipating a
on margins.                                       reduction in sales volumes now have to
                                                  think differently about how they manage
The main costs for retailers are human            their businesses.
resources and property costs. Rents in many
locations are softening; London however,          Although life is tough on the high street
remains an exception. Multiple retailers,         there are still many UK retailers (Next,
such as Thornton’s, Mothercare, HMV and           Marks & Spencers, W.H.Smith’s, Dunelm,
Carpetright, have closed an average of 20         Kingfisher) who are navigating rough waters
shops a day as they contend with the tough        with flexible pricing architecture and brand
trading environment. Supermarkets and             recognition.
the discount retailers have bucked the trend
showing growth in store numbers for the
first half of the year.

                                                                                                   1
Euler Hermes UK Risk Bulletin - #8 September 2011 - Retail Special Issue
Export focus:
                              India - BRIC Foundations
    Mark Wyatt
                              Although a disparate grouping, the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia,
    Director
    Risk, Information and
                              India and China) all provide significant potential for economic
    Claims                    growth and for increasing UK trade flows.

    Of these countries, India has the closest links    a period of monetary tightening (eleven
    with the UK, linguistically and historically, it   increases in interest rates since March 2010)
    is the world’s most populous democracy and,        and uncertainties in the global economy, a
    despite lingering doubts about the speed           current “slowdown” is still likely to result in
    of bureaucracy in that country, the modus          annual growth of 7-9% this year and next (see
    operandi of the business environment should        also Economy).
    be broadly familiar to UK traders. That is
    not to say that India is other than a complex      Economy
    and challenging market but two stark facts
    illustrate the potential:                          Wholesale price inflation (used for official
                                                       target setting, with a formal comfort zone
    Size                                               of 5-6%) was 9.4% yr/yr in June (from 9.06%
                                                       in May), reflecting continuing high prices
    India is the world’s seventh largest country       for fuels (12.85%) and foodstuffs. Moreover,
    in area and tenth in economic size. Its            state-owned oil companies increased
    population is the second largest, with initial     gasoline prices in April, so wholesale price
    results from the national census showing           inflation is unlikely to ease substantially
    a population (1.21bn) that increased by            in coming months, even though food price
    181mn in the last decade and is expected to        pressures should provide some respite,
    overtake that of China by 2030. In addition        following adequate monsoon rains. At end-
    to the regional economic heartlands around         July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI, central
    Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore, commercial            bank) increased its benchmark interest rates
    prospects exist in other cities, including         by a further 50bps, with the repo (the main
    Nagpur, Ahmedabad, Chandigarh, Pune and            policy rate) now 8% and reverse repo 7%.
    Jaipur. Moreover, despite high poverty levels,     Inflation and inflationary expectations (not
    a widening middle class provides growing           economic growth), are the key policy targets
    markets for consumer items. A government           for now, so we expect further monetary
    commitment to improve infrastructure               policy tightening this year and for this to
    (and financial resources provided to fund it)      moderate further (but not curtail) domestic
    means that business opportunities also exist       demand.
    in transport, construction, communications
    and engineering sectors.                           Indeed, GDP growth has already slowed (7.8%
                                                       yr/yr in Q1 2011 following 8.3% in Q4 2010)
    Growth                                             and latest data provides some corroboration.
                                                       Industrial output in May was up 5.6% yr/yr
    India is the second fastest growing economy        (5.8% April), car sales’ growth slowed and
    after China, among major non-OECD                  the July PMI (53.6, 55.3 in June) suggests that
    markets. In the period 2002-10, annual real        manufacturing activity is at its slowest pace
    GDP growth averaged 8% and it is a mark            in around 20 months. Part of the slowdown
    of the country’s potential that, even after        reflects the above-mentioned monetary

2
Big Market

                                                                            In July 2010, PM David Cameron
                                                                            launched an Indian trade drive, with a
                                                                            delegation to that country considered
            tightening. However, with PMI still in positive                 the largest in living memory. Towards
            territory, this appears to be a manageable                      the end of July this year, the UK and
            slowdown, not a collapse. Overall, and even                     India held an economic and financial
            with moderately subdued domestic demand                         dialogue aimed at boosting bilateral
            and an uncertain global trajectory, India is
                                                                            trade and investment. As part of
            forecast to maintain a GDP growth rate of
                                                                            this, new deals valued at over £1bn
            around 7-8% in FY2011/12. For FY2012/13,
            GDP expansion is forecast at around                             were signed. Bilateral trade reached
            8.5%, supported by continuing domestic                          £13bn in 2010, up from around £11bn
            consumption and investment growth and                           in 2009, with UK exports to India
            with a boost from government spending.                          increasing by 28% and imports from
                                                                            that source increasing 27%. Moreover,
            BRICs GDP Growth 2002 - 2012                                    the UK is the largest inward investor
% Growth
                                                                            into India and the latter is the UK’s
    15                                                                      third largest investor, with the UK
    12                                                                      recipient of more than 50% of India’s
       9                                                                    investments into Europe.
       6                                                                    Indian PM Manmohan Singh seeks
       3
                                                                            to increase bilateral trade to £24bn
2002                                                                 2012
       0
                                                                            within five years.
       -3

       -6

       -9
                       China          India        Russia   Brazil

            Euler Hermes forecasts for 2011 and 2012.

                                                                                                                     3
Sector Focus:
                                Travel
    Dirk Kotze                  Travel and Tourism businesses focussed on the domestic UK market
    Risk Underwriting Manager
    Fuel, Energy, Advertising
                                are taking advantage of the currency weakness and anticipate an
    and Travel                  uplift in demand during the Olympic Games. The outlook, however,
                                for travel businesses serving outbound tourism remains gloomy.

The office for National Statistics recently      The tougher environment combined with
reported that overseas travel from the UK        company specific issues have resulted in
continued to decline in 2010 after a steep       the failure of a number of operators/agents
drop in 2009. Official figures released          in 2011 – Gill’s Cruises, Dream Holidays
on 28th July showed a fall of more than          and Holidays 4 UK being some of the most
5% in visits abroad by UK residents last         noteworthy recent examples.
year, following an even bigger 15% decline
during 2009. Reasons quoted are economic         It is evident that travel businesses that
and exchange rate challenges, along with         have failed to differentiate their offers
a number of travel disruptions, mostly           and/or have not yet embraced new
affecting air travel.                            technologies will find it most difficult to
                                                 adjust their business models in the face of
These statistics came as no surprise as we       lower demand and increased competition
have seen a tough travel market in the UK as     from lower cost competitors. Cash is
evidenced by public announcements of the         all important and many businesses in
bigger tour operators as well as proprietary     this sector have been relying on growing
information obtained through our Risk            turnover to fund thinly capitalised balance
Office network.                                  sheets. During the good years many
                                                 operators chose not to retain profits in their
In a profit warning on 12th July, Thomas         businesses and now have to rely on limited
Cook Group plc announced an expected             reserves. With both margins and volumes
profit shortfall for the year due to travel      under pressure, we expect an increased
disruptions in the Middle East and North         number of weaker operators to be exposed
Africa as well as tough trading conditions       before the end of the year.
in the UK where there is a continued
squeeze on consumers’ disposable income.         Most consumer facing industries appear
Similarly, on 12th May TUI Travel plc refer to   to face an uncertain future in the medium
operating results being affected by factors      term and unforeseen business failures
including significant headwinds from             in the travel sector remain a significant
political events in Egypt and Tunisia and        risk. Despite the aforementioned market
the weak UK economic environment, which          pressures, we continue to underwrite
was later confirmed in their interim results.    substantial levels of credit in the travel
                                                 industry. In support of our insured clients,
Information obtained by our analysts show        we underwrite nearly £500m of cover
that smaller tour operators and agents are       across 600 travel related business in the
also finding a weaker market with demand         UK. This support is made possible by the
generally being flat at best. Even in the        fact that many businesses in the industry
cruising sector which has seen significant       have recognised the benefits of providing
growth in recent years, agents are reporting     us with relevant, up to date information
reduced growth and tighter margins.              that enables us to make meaningful
                                                 assessments of their credit worthiness.

4
Republic of Ireland:
                            Retail fears realised
Mike Buggy                  In our last review of Retail in March, we identified unmanageable
Risk Underwriting Manager
Ireland
                            debt, built up during the “Celtic Tiger” years and inflexible rents,
                            due to legacy leasehold commitment, as major threats to an Irish
                            Retail sector struggling under the weight of austerity.

Recent high profile examples of these issues    In the case of Superquinn we did provide
have emerged in the cases of Superquinn         advanced warning to our clients in relation
and Xtravision. This has served to highlight    to the increased level of risk associated
the vulnerability of unsecured creditors        with the company in the 18 months prior
in both “pre-pack” receiverships and            to the receivership. In many cases our
examinerships.                                  policyholders were quite far advanced in
                                                managing down their exposures prior to the
The McConnells pre-pack in 2010 was a           formal appointment.
watershed moment in insolvency practice
as it was the first substantial pre-pack        There will be a knock on effect to the
receivership in Ireland leaving the way         supplier base in the case of Superquinn.
open for banks to consider its use as a         This risk has been mitigated by the
legitimate tool to mitigate losses. This        accelerated retention of title payments
event certainly heightened our awareness        made by the receiver and the goodwill fund
of the circumstances where a pre-pack is an     established by Musgrave.
option for the banks.
                                                The time has long since passed where it
The same logic applied to examinership,         is acceptable to trade with companies on
where in the case of the National Lining        reputation alone. This has been a feature
Company of Ireland, a legal precedent was       of the Irish Retail sector in the past and
set in relation to the repudiation of leases.   therefore access to information and
This in effect created a mechanism for          monitoring has never been so important.
companies to exit onerous leases, providing     There has been a marked change in the
the court granted protection from creditors     profile of insolvencies since January with
and confirmed the examinership process.         food retail up 36% with an insolvency rate
Recent examples of companies exiting the        of 2.3% and non-food retail up 127% with an
process show that unless you have a strong      insolvency rate of 1.72%. This is a worrying
retention of title claim, the prospects of      trend when compared against the average
a meaningful recovery for an unsecured          insolvency rate across all sectors of 0.65%.
creditor is limited given the level of
damages generally awarded to landlords.         The outlook for the rest of 2011 is another
                                                record year of insolvencies so our analysts
Our objective is to steer our clients away      continue their vigilant watch over Irish
from these risks and protect them from          companies in order to continue protecting
suffering bad debts. We have been very          our clients from potential losses.
active in our review of the challenges
facing the retail sector and in many cases
have successfully anticipated some of the
emerging issues.

                                                                                                   5
Brilliant move pays off
                             The failure of any large business is a tragedy, and
                             when it affects the future of others within the
                             supply chain, the full impact can be catastrophic.

    It is for this very reason that many             a turnaround plan and the promise of an
    thousands of businesses decide to credit         injection of cash in April 2011 suggested
    insure, to protect them against the failure of   the business might still have a future. Its
    a major customer - a failure that can often      collapse two months after Endless acquired
    be as sudden as it is dramatic.                  the business was therefore somewhat of a
                                                     surprise.
    The recent collapse of the discount retailer
    T J Hughes and the closure of its national       For Brilliant Media as a key supplier to T
    portfolio of 57 stores is an excellent case      J Hughes, the speed of the collapse was
    in point. T J Hughes can trace its history       unexpected and most unwelcome. Brilliant
    back to 1912 and whilst its woes had been        is one of the UK’s largest independent
    well documented in the past, and the             media agencies with a turnover of c£90
    business even taken to the brink of failure,     million. For three years it had been buying

6
media space in the national and local           has been easy to point the finger of blame at
press on the retailer’s behalf, and stood       credit insurers in the past but the reality is
to lose a considerable amount of money if       that they only ever pull cover when there is
its client failed. Fortunately, Brilliant was   good reason.”
credit insured and so when the death knell
sounded it was already in a good place, as      The time from the point at which the
Finance Director Craig Megretton explains:      business looked like it had a future to one
“Almost since Brilliant started in 1981 we      where its future was well and truly behind
have insured against customer insolvency        it, was only two months. Despite Endless’
and for the last 10 years have been with        confidence in T J Hughes’ potential, the two
Euler Hermes UK,” he says. “In the media        newly appointed Directors resigned and
industry with high turnovers and low            with the Quarter Day for rent pending, the
margins, credit insurance is accepted ‘best     business was wound up.
practice’.
                                                In the case of T J Hughes, Craig says that its
“We had been buying between £6.5m and           payment record to Brilliant was exemplary:
£7 million in media for T J Hughes each year    “It was what we would call a ‘clean account’,”
for the past few years, and were averaging      he says. “They had stayed within their limit
£500,000 per month which was more than          and had paid for February and March so
covered by the limit given by our insurer.      the next tranches of invoices were only just
At the end of 2010, however, Euler Hermes       falling due.”
notified us that the limit would be reduced
since the risk had significantly increased      This made a claim to Euler Hermes a simple
and further information from T J Hughes         process: T J Hughes went insolvent on 30th
had not been forthcoming.                       June; Brilliant was promptly paid its claim
                                                on 11th July. As Craig says, in a competitive
“We took the view that since Euler Hermes       market of low margins, such a sum is far
was effectively doing our ‘credit checking’     from insignificant: “It was very important
for us, that if they said the limit had to      for our own cashflow that we had the money
be reduced then there must be very good         as quickly as possible,” he says, “and this
reason for doing so.”                           is something that Euler Hermes clearly
                                                recognised.”
And so it proved right. T J Hughes had a very
difficult 2010. Euler Hermes had been closely   The claim resulting from the failure of T J
monitoring and analysing information on         Hughes has served to confirm Craig’s belief
the company, and indeed had been at the         in credit insurance, if any such reassurance
point of cancelling all cover when, in March    was needed: “It means I sleep better at
2011, Endless, a restructuring and business     night,” he concludes.
turnaround operator, entered the fray.

David Smith, Head of Risk Underwriting at
Euler Hermes takes up the story: “With the         It was very important for
arrival of Endless whom we had worked
                                                   our cashflow that we had
with previously, we decided to retain a level
of exposure to support the turnaround.             the money as quicky as
Indeed, it was understood that the                 possible, this is something
turnaround had started well and action had
                                                   that Euler Hermes clearly
been taken to strengthen the management
team.”                                             recognised.

Craig Megretton concurs: “Euler Hermes             Craig Megretton,
could well have withdrawn our limit
                                                   Finance Director, Brilliant Media
altogether but clearly understood that for
T J Hughes to survive, it needed to retain
its route to market and its business model
was heavily dependent on advertising. It

                                                                                                 7
Sectors under pressure:
                              It’s not just Retail...
    Paul Anderson
                              Sluggish demand for housing and public sector cuts means
    Regional Risk Manager
    East Anglia, London and
                              that Construction and Property are still difficult, while Print and
    South East                Packaging are hit by paper and energy price hikes. In the regions,
                              the North of England exceeds the national average for insolvency.

    In previous issues of our Risk Bulletin, we    continued pressure on household incomes
    have reported on the difficulties faced by     from low or no salary increases, job losses
    companies in the Construction sector. At       and general price inflation will continue to
    the end of June 2011, the sector is at the     have a marked effect on the sector this year.
    top spot in our UK insolvency volumes by
    sector table with the largest number of        While Construction accounts for the
    insolvencies (1332 - 24%) by volume year       largest volume of insolvencies however, the
    to date. This is reflected in the number of    insolvency rate is higher in other sectors.
    claims and reports of overdue payments         Furniture ranks No.1 in the UK for 2011 YTD
    we have received from our clients in the       with an annualised rate of 2.62% (national
    same period. Public sector spending cuts       average 0.74%). It is of no great surprise
    have impacted here, with reduced volumes       that this is the case when we consider that
    of contracts for tender and ever more          consumers’ ability to invest in non-essential
    competitive pricing. Sluggish demand for       items is reduced and corporate customers
    housing has also had a negative effect.        have looked to save costs. General demand
    Some companies in the sector are chasing       in this sector has been weak throughout
    work at minimal margins – sometimes            the year and we have seen retailers offering
    at considerable discount to cost. This         large discounts to generate sales. The recent
    increased competition and pricing pressure     administrations of Habitat, Lombok and
    has come at a time when input prices for       Homeform (with brands Moben, Dolphin,
    products such as precast concrete and          Sharps and Kitchens Direct) were predicted
    fabricated steelwork have continued to         and we believe that there will be no recovery
    grow. With Construction output expected to     for the Furniture sector in the foreseeable
    remain depressed through the remainder         future.
    of 2011 and into 2012, the challenge for the
    sector will clearly remain significant.        Print and Packaging are also among those
                                                   at the higher end of the scale for insolvency
    Other sectors struggling in H1 2011            rates. Companies in both sectors have been
    are Property (Development, Letting             hit by paper and energy price movements.
    Management and Trading) at 11%; Food           However, whilst the insolvency rate is higher
    and Agriculture at 8%; Electronics at 8%       for Packaging (2.33%), we have seen fewer
    and Non-food Retail at 7%. The Retail          insolvencies here than for Print (2.03%) –
    environment has become more volatile           where we continue to see smaller players
    as we have progressed through H1 2011          fail with regularity due to their inability to
    and has attracted a large amount of press      pass on cost increases to customers.
    coverage. We have already seen significant
    insolvencies such as Habitat, Homeform,
    T.J. Hughes and Jane Norman - further high
    profile failures are anticipated. Given the

8
Sector Insolvency Rates H1 2011                                                                                   Sector Insolvencies by volume

Position   NACE Group          Insolvency Rate                                                       Metals 1% Film & Media 1%
                                                                                               Chemicals 1%      Furniture 1%
1          Furniture               2.62%                                                      Telecoms 1%          Non-Food Wholesale 1%
                                                                                               Health 1%
                                                                           General Manufacturing 1%                  Publishing 1%
2          Glass manufacture       2.51%                                              Advertising1%
                                                                                        Print 1.2%
3          Packaging               2.33%                                         Recruitment 2%                                    Construction 24%
                                                                                      Leisure 2%
4          Metal Fabrication       2.28%                                  Metal Fabrication 2%
                                                                             Engineering 2%
5          Print                   2.03%                                         Finance 2%
                                                                                  Timber 3%
6          Other Services          1.71%                                     Automotive 3%

7          Construction            1.66%                            Fuel, Travel & Transport 4%                                                    Property 11%

8          Timber                  1.60%                                               Textiles 4%
9          Recruitment             1.49%                                            Other Services 5%                                     Food & Agriculture 8%

10         Waste / Recycling       1.49%                                                      Non-food retail 7%              Electronics 8%

UK regions under pressure                        Looking ahead, assuming very low level GDP
                                                 growth for the remainder of 2011 and 2012,
With London and the South East accounting        we anticipate that the Northern regions will
for 46% of live companies in the UK, it is       start to see some improvement like the rest
logical that these areas account for the         of the UK. The improvement will however
larger volume of insolvencies in H1 2011.        continue to lag the improvement seen in the
Year to date they stand at 40% – with            South – particularly the South East, which
Greater London 26% and South East 14%.           showed an annualised insolvency rate of
Similarly, while Construction ranks No.1         0.58%.
for insolvency volumes year to date, 34% of
these come from Greater London and the
South East – greater than the North East
and North West combined at 23%. Greater
London and the South East also account for
50% of Property insolvencies.
                                                                                       Scotland

It is, however, the insolvency rates that
are of particular note. These show that
the North East, Yorkshire & Humberside
and Northern Ireland remain rooted to                                                                     North
                                                                                                          East
the top of the insolvencies table – though                           Northern
                                                                     Ireland                      North
the rates of failure in H1 2011 have                                                              West
                                                                                                              Yorkshire

improved. The North West has now joined                                                                       & The
                                                                                                              Humber
them at No.4, after sitting below the East                Ireland
                                                                                                                   East
Midlands and East Anglia at the end of                                                                             Midlands
Q1 2011. Within the Northern regions,                                                                 West
                                                                                                                              East of
                                                                                                      Midlands
it is those familiar industries that are                                                  Wales
                                                                                                                              England
                                                                                                                                         Greater
most affected – Construction, Furniture,                                                                                                 London
                                                                                                                    South
Print and Packaging and Non-food Retail.                                                              South         East
                                                                                                      West
Within Northern Ireland, it is Construction
and Furniture most affected. If we look
within the Northern regions, Sunderland
(annualised rate 2.16%), Manchester (2.04%),                                                                              Insolvency Rate
Sheffield (1.78%) and Bolton (1.58%) top the
                                                                                                                                                     >1.25%
table. All exceed the annualised national
                                                                                                                                               1.00% - 1.25%
average of 0.74% by quite some way.
                                                                                                                                               0.75% - 1.00%
                                                                                                                                           0.50% - 0.75%
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Euler Hermes Trade Credit      Shanghai 200120                 Tel.: +33 1 4070 5083
Underwriting Agents Pty Ltd.   Tel.: +81 21 5012 2220                                      Indonesia
Level 9, Forecourt Building                                    Germany                     PT Asuransi Allianz Utama
2 Market Street                Chile                           Euler Hermes                Indonesia
Sydney, NSW 2000               Euler Hermes Seguro de          Kreditversicherungs-AG      Summitmas II.Building, 9th
Tel.: +61 2 8258 5108          Crédito S.A.                    Friedensallee 254           floor
                               Ave. Presidente                 22763 Hamburg               Jl. Jenderal Sudirman Kav
Austria                        Kennedy 5735                    Tel.: +49 40 8834 0         61-62
Prisma Kreditversicherungs-    Of. 801, Torre Poniente                                     Jakarta 12190
AG                             Las Condes                      Federal Export Credit       Tel. +62 21 252 2470 ext.6100
Himmelpfortgasse 29            Santiago                        Guarantees
1010 Vienna                    Tel.: +56 2 246 1786            Friedensallee 254           Ireland
Tel.: + 43 5 01 02-0                                           22763 Hamburg               Euler Hermes Ireland
                               Colombia                        Tel.: +49 40 8834 9192      The Arch
Euler Hermes Collections       Euler Hermes Colombia                                       Blackrock Business Park
Handelskai 388                 Calle 72 6-44 Piso 3            Euler Hermes Collections    Carysfort Avenue
1020 Vienna                    Edificio APA                    GmbH                        Blackrock
Tel.: +43 1 90 81 771          Bogota                          Zeppelinstr. 48             Co. Dublin
                               Tel.: +571 326 4640             14471 Potsdam               Tel.: +353 1 200 0400
Bahrain                                                        Tel.: +49 331 27890-000
Please contact United Arab     Czech Republic                                              Israel
Emirates                       Euler Hermes Čescob,            Greece                      ICIC
                               úvěrová pojišťovna, a.s.        Euler Hermes Emporiki SA    2, Shenkar street
Belgium                        Molákova 576/11                 16 Laodikias Street &       68010 Tel Aviv
Euler Hermes Credit            186 00 Prague 8                 1-3 Nymfeou Street          Tel.: + 97 23 796 2444
Insurance Belgium S.A. (NV)    Tel.: +420 266 109 511          115 28 Athens
Rue Montoyer, 15                                               Tel.: +30 210 69 00 000     Italy
1000 Brussels                  Denmark                                                     Euler Hermes SIAC S.p.A.
Tel.: +32 2 289 3111           Euler Hermes Kreditforsikring   Hong Kong                   Via Raffaello Matarazzo, 19
                               Norden AB                       Euler Hermes Credit         00139 Rome
Brazil                         Amerika Plads 19                Underwriters (HK) Ltd       Tel.: +39 06 8700 1
Euler Hermes Seguros           2100 Copenhagen O               Suites 403-11, 4/F
deCrédito SA                   Tel.: +45 88 33 3388            Cityplaza 4                 Kuwait
Avenida Paulista,                                              12 Taikoo Wan Road          Please contact United Arab
2.421 – 3º andar               Estonia                         Island East                 Emirates
Jardim Paulista                Please contact Finland          Hong Kong
São Paulo / SP 01311-300                                       Tel.: +852 2867 0061        Japan
Tel.: +55 11 3065 2260         Finland                                                     Euler Hermes
                               Euler HermesLuottovakuutus      Hungary                     Kreditversicherungs-AG
Canada                         Mannerheimintie 105             Euler Hermes Magyar         Japan Branch Office
Euler Hermes Canada            00280 Helsinki                  Hitelbiztosító Zrt.         Kyobashi Nisshoku Bldg. 7F
CIBC Tower                     Tel.: +358 10 850 8500          Kiscelli u. 104             8-7 Kyobashi, 1-chome
1155 Rene-Levesque West                                        1037 Budapest               Chuo-Ku
Blvd. Suite 1702 327           France                          Tel.: +36 1 453 9000        Tokyo 104-0031
Montreal Quebec H3B            Euler Hermes SFAC                                           Tel.: +81 3 3538 5403
Tel.: +1 514 876 9656          1, rue Euler
                               75008 Paris
                               Tel.: +33 1 4070 5050
Holding company: Euler Hermes, 1 rue Euler, 75008 Paris, France
Tel: +33 1 4070 5050 - www.eulerhermes.com

Latvia                         Poland                        South Korea                   Tunisia
Please contact Poland          Euler Hermes Towarzystwo      Euler Hermes Credit           Please contact Italy
                               Ubezpieczen S.A.              Underwriters (HK) Ltd.
Lithuania                      ul. Domaniewska 50 B          Korea Liaison Office          Turkey
Please contact Poland          02-672 Warsaw                 Rm 1411, 14/F, Sayong         Euler Hermes Sigorta A. Ş.
Malaysia                       Tel.: +48 22 363 6363         Platinum Bldg.                Iz Plaza Giz Ayazağa Yolu
Please contact Singapore                                     156, Cheokseon-dong,          Eski Bügyükdere Cad.
                               Portugal                      Chongro-ku                    No:9 Kat: 14 Maslak/Istanbul
Mexico                         COSEC - Companhia de          Seoul 110-052                 Tel.: +90 212 290 76 10
Euler Hermes Seguro            Seguro de Créditos, S.A.      Tel.: +82 2 733 8813
de Crédito S.A.                Av. da Republica, nº 58                                     United Arab Emirates
Blvd. Manuel Avila Camacho     1069-057 Lisbon               Spain                         Euler Hermes
#164 8° piso                   Tel.: +351 21 791 3700        Euler Hermes Crédito,         c/o Alliance Insurance (PSC)
Col. Lomas de Barrilaco                                      Sucursal en España de Euler   Warba Center 4th Floor
Deleg. Miguel Hidalgo          Qatar                         Hermes SFAC, S.A.             Office 405
Mexico DF CP 11010             Please contact United Arab    Paseo de la Castellana, 95    PO Box 183957
Tel.: +52 55 5201 7900         Emirates                      Planta 14                     Dubai
                                                             Edificio Torre Europa         Tel.: +971 4 266 3083
Morocco                        Romania                       28046 Madrid
Euler Hermes Acmar             Euler Hermes                  Tel.: +34 91 417 77 67        United Kingdom
37, bd Abdelattif Ben          Kreditversicherungs-                                        Euler Hermes UK plc
Kaddour                        AG Sucursala Bucuresti        Sri Lanka                     1 Canada Square
20100 Casablanca               Str. Petru Maior Nr.6         Please contact Singapore      London E14 5DX
Tel.: +212 5 22 79 03 30       Sector 1                                                    Tel.: +44 20 7512 9333
                               011264 Bucarest               Sweden
The Netherlands                Tel.: +40 21 302 0300         Euler Hermes                  Euler Hermes Guarantee plc
Euler Hermes                                                 Kreditförsäkring              Surety House
Kredietverzekering NV          Russia                        Norden AB                     Lyons Crescent
Pettelaarpark 20               Euler Hermes Credit           Klarabergsviadukten 90        Tonbridge
5216 PD ’s-Hertogenbosch       Management                    P.O. Box 729                  Kent TN9 1EN
Tel.: +31 73 688 9999          OOO                           111 64 Stockholm              Tel.: +44 173 277 0311
                               Krymskiy Val, 3/2             Tel.: +46 8 55 51 36 00
New Zealand                    Moscow, 119049                                              United States
Euler Hermes                   Tel.: +7 495 649 80 08        Switzerland                   Euler Hermes ACI
Trade Credit Ltd.                                            Euler Hermes                  800 Red Brook Boulevard
Level 1, 152 Fanshawe Street   Saudi Arabia                  Kreditversicherungs-AG        Owings Mills, MD 21117
Auckland 1010                  Please contact United Arab    Euler Hermes Reinsurance      Tel.: +1 410 753 0753
Tel.: +64 9 354 2995           Emirates                      Tödistrasse 65
                                                             8002 Zurich                   Euler Hermes UMA Inc
Norway                         Singapore                     Tel.: +41 44 283 65 65        (trade debt collection)
Euler Hermes                   Euler Hermes                  (Kreditversicherung)          600 South 7th Street
Kredittforsikring Norden AB    Kreditversicherungs-AG        Tel.: +41 44 283 65 85        Louisville, KY 40201-1672
Holbergsgate 21                Singapore Branch Office       (Reinsurance)                 Tel.: +1 800 237 9386
P.O. Box 6875                  3 Temasek Avenue
St. Olavs Plass                # 03-02 Centennial Tower      Taiwan                        Vietnam
0130 Oslo                      Singapore 039190              Please contact Hong Kong      Please contact Singapore
Tel.: +47 2 325 6000           Tel.: +65 6297 8802
                                                             Thailand
Oman                           Slovakia                      Allianz C.P. General
Please contact United Arab     Euler Hermes Servis, s.r.o.   Insurance Co., Ltd.
Emirates                       Plynárenská 1                 323 United Center Building
                               82109 Bratislava              30th Floor
Philippines                    Tel.: +421 2 582 80 911       Silom Road
Please contact Singapore                                     Bangrak, Bangkok 10500
                               South Africa                  Tel.: +66 2638 9000
                               Please contact Italy
Regional Risk Offices

 London Risk Office (East Anglia, London and South East)
 1 Canada Square
 London
 E14 5DX

 Birmingham Risk Office (Midlands, South West and Wales)
 2nd floor
 1 Colmore Row
 Birmingham
 B3 2BJ

 Manchester Risk Office (North and Scotland)
 Norfolk House
 7 Norfolk Street
 Manchester
 M2 1DW

 Northern Ireland Risk Office
 21 Linenhall Street
 Belfast
 BT2 8AB

 Republic of Ireland Risk Office
 The Arch
 Blackrock Business Park
 Carysfort Avenue
 Blackrock
 Co. Dublin

  UK DATA PROTECTION ACT 1998/REPUBLIC OF IRELAND DATA PROTECTION ACTS 1988 AND 2003 (“THE ACTS”) - INFORMATION NOTICE
  “Personal Data” as defined in the Acts, provided to Euler Hermes UK plc and any of its subsidiaries and branches, including Euler Hermes
  Collections UK Limited, Euler Hermes Risk Services UK Limited and Euler Hermes UK plc Republic of Ireland branch, will be processed for the
  purposes of carrying out credit insurance, risk assessments, credit management and other related activities. The data will be held securely and
  may be shared within the Euler Hermes Group or with responsible third parties, within or outside the EEA. You may write to the Data Protection
  Officer at the address shown for further information.
  For further information on the Acts please refer to the websites of the Information Commissioner in the UK at www.ico.gov.uk or the Data
  Protection Commissioner in the Republic of Ireland at www.dataprotection.ie.
                                                                                                                                                      EHUK Risk Bulletin #8 Septembber 2011

  © 2011 Euler Hermes UK Plc. The content of the report (which is subject to change without notice) reflects only our opinion, which is based on
  information received by us. Accordingly no warranty, representation or other assurance is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the report.
  The report is for general information and is not intended to address any requirements you may have, for which you must obtain independent
  advice. The report does not constitute any form of advice, recommendation or arrangement by Euler Hermes UK plc or by the Euler Hermes
  Group of Companies and must not be relied upon in the making of any decision, agreement or arrangement.

  Euler Hermes UK plc                 Registered in England and Wales No. 149786
  1 Canada Square                     Registered office: 1 Canada Square, London E14 5DX
  London E14 5DX
  Tel: +44 (0)20 7512 9333            Euler Hermes UK plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
  Fax: +44 (0)20 7512 9186
12
  www.eulerhermes.co.uk
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