Euler Hermes UK Risk Bulletin - #8 September 2011 - Retail Special Issue
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Enhance your business relationships with your suppliers. Your suppliers are our clients. Providing Euler Hermes UK with your up-to-date financial information can help your business. A positive credit insurance review can enhance business relationships with your suppliers, which in turn could result in more goods, better credit terms or additional discounts. With the information you provide, we are able to make better informed decisions on the credit limits we are asked to consider and may increase the level of credit to our clients - your suppliers. In the UK alone we are giving an extra £3 billion of new credit to UK businesses every month. Call our buyer line on 08444 122041 to speak to a Risk Analyst in your local area, or email your information to moreinfo@eulerhermes.com
Foreword Kris Macauley Welcome to a special Retail edition of the Euler Hermes UK Risk Bulletin. We Head of Risk Information previously took an in-depth look at Retail just after Christmas but thought it necessary to highlight the sector again in view of the continued pressures and steady stream of bad news emanating from the sector in recent months. The fact that the insolvency rate in Retail has increased 13% from full year 2010 to H1 2011 in itself is a sign. But probably more alarming is the fact that listed retailers have issued 26 profit warnings in H1 2011, more than in all of 2010 and nearly twice as many as in all of 2009. Put another way - more than 1 in 6 of listed retailers have had to issue a profits warning. And the summer period has shown no declination in this trend, with the European debt crisis and impact of the riots adding to the challenges faced in the sector. The corollary to serious pain on the high street is that – almost predictably - serious pain will progressively filter elsewhere. We saw this in all past recessions or downturns, when a slump in Retail led the way for other sectors to follow. As each week passes, the potential for a double dip scenario seemingly increases. The Retail sector performance is currently doing little to help. Hand in hand with Retail fortunes is the Travel sector and at their busiest time of year, we take the opportunity to evaluate its state of health. We also continue our series on Export, with a special focus on BRIC and India in particular. With UK conditions stagnant, exporting continues to provide a more compelling case for economic recovery. As always, when economic pressures increase, there are always winners and losers, good companies in tough sectors and bad companies in good sectors. Our role, with our teams of analysts is to identify those, thus protecting our clients and – over the cycle – supporting them in reducing the total cost of risk. You will read in this issue the story of our client Brilliant Media and its involvement in the TJ Hughes insolvency as a particular example of the support credit insurance can offer. In these difficult times, no doubt there will be winners and losers. By using credit insurance, we believe our clients will maximise their chance of counting themselves amongst the winners.
Contents Sector focus Retail 1 Export focus India - BRIC Foundations 2 Sector focus Travel 4 Regional focus Republic of Ireland: Retail fears realised 5 Retail Case Study Brilliant Media and TJ Hughes 6 Sectors under pressure It’s not just Retail 8
Sector focus: Retail Christine Brennan In the previous Retail trade sector update (issue 6 - March 2011) we Risk Underwriting Manager Non-Food Retail and predicted that the ongoing resilience of the UK Retail Sector would Textiles be severely tested in 2011. Unfortunately our prediction has proven true. Retail sales grew by 0.8% month on month Retailers selling furniture, carpets, white in June; however, the underlying pattern in goods and electricals continue to find the the monthly growth rate has been flat since current trading conditions challenging. the start of the year. Food store sales grew by just 1.3% in the year to June 2011 as the large The UK electrical goods retailers have to increases in prices led to the sharpest drop cope with aggressive price deflation and in volumes since records began. In contrast margin erosion which are exacerbated by non-store retailing grew by 23.6%. Indeed competition from the supermarkets and the internet now accounts for £1 in every £10 low cost internet operators. The iPad has of retail sales. Mobiles with internet access provided some respite and tablet PC sales are powering a shopping revolution. have been strong. However, these have come at the expense of reduced laptop sales and Consumer confidence dropped again in advances in mobile phone technology has July to its lowest level since March 2009 as reduced demand for digital cameras and the squeeze on disposable incomes and the MP3 players. The music market continues its uncertainty over the future economic and transformation as consumers migrate from financial situation weighed on sentiment. CDs to digital downloads and free music Deteriorating conditions in the Eurozone streaming services. and sharp falls in global stock markets in recent times will have increased consumers’ Retailers loaded with onerous debt anxiety. obligations and bullish growth targets which were set at the top of the credit cycle Many retailers brought forward their are finding life difficult. summer sales and embarked on strong promotional campaigns to stimulate Additionally, some specialist retailers who demand. Aggressive price cuts and extended aggressively expanded their store portfolio summer sales will have a negative impact in the last 10 years not anticipating a on margins. reduction in sales volumes now have to think differently about how they manage The main costs for retailers are human their businesses. resources and property costs. Rents in many locations are softening; London however, Although life is tough on the high street remains an exception. Multiple retailers, there are still many UK retailers (Next, such as Thornton’s, Mothercare, HMV and Marks & Spencers, W.H.Smith’s, Dunelm, Carpetright, have closed an average of 20 Kingfisher) who are navigating rough waters shops a day as they contend with the tough with flexible pricing architecture and brand trading environment. Supermarkets and recognition. the discount retailers have bucked the trend showing growth in store numbers for the first half of the year. 1
Export focus: India - BRIC Foundations Mark Wyatt Although a disparate grouping, the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, Director Risk, Information and India and China) all provide significant potential for economic Claims growth and for increasing UK trade flows. Of these countries, India has the closest links a period of monetary tightening (eleven with the UK, linguistically and historically, it increases in interest rates since March 2010) is the world’s most populous democracy and, and uncertainties in the global economy, a despite lingering doubts about the speed current “slowdown” is still likely to result in of bureaucracy in that country, the modus annual growth of 7-9% this year and next (see operandi of the business environment should also Economy). be broadly familiar to UK traders. That is not to say that India is other than a complex Economy and challenging market but two stark facts illustrate the potential: Wholesale price inflation (used for official target setting, with a formal comfort zone Size of 5-6%) was 9.4% yr/yr in June (from 9.06% in May), reflecting continuing high prices India is the world’s seventh largest country for fuels (12.85%) and foodstuffs. Moreover, in area and tenth in economic size. Its state-owned oil companies increased population is the second largest, with initial gasoline prices in April, so wholesale price results from the national census showing inflation is unlikely to ease substantially a population (1.21bn) that increased by in coming months, even though food price 181mn in the last decade and is expected to pressures should provide some respite, overtake that of China by 2030. In addition following adequate monsoon rains. At end- to the regional economic heartlands around July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI, central Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore, commercial bank) increased its benchmark interest rates prospects exist in other cities, including by a further 50bps, with the repo (the main Nagpur, Ahmedabad, Chandigarh, Pune and policy rate) now 8% and reverse repo 7%. Jaipur. Moreover, despite high poverty levels, Inflation and inflationary expectations (not a widening middle class provides growing economic growth), are the key policy targets markets for consumer items. A government for now, so we expect further monetary commitment to improve infrastructure policy tightening this year and for this to (and financial resources provided to fund it) moderate further (but not curtail) domestic means that business opportunities also exist demand. in transport, construction, communications and engineering sectors. Indeed, GDP growth has already slowed (7.8% yr/yr in Q1 2011 following 8.3% in Q4 2010) Growth and latest data provides some corroboration. Industrial output in May was up 5.6% yr/yr India is the second fastest growing economy (5.8% April), car sales’ growth slowed and after China, among major non-OECD the July PMI (53.6, 55.3 in June) suggests that markets. In the period 2002-10, annual real manufacturing activity is at its slowest pace GDP growth averaged 8% and it is a mark in around 20 months. Part of the slowdown of the country’s potential that, even after reflects the above-mentioned monetary 2
Big Market In July 2010, PM David Cameron launched an Indian trade drive, with a delegation to that country considered tightening. However, with PMI still in positive the largest in living memory. Towards territory, this appears to be a manageable the end of July this year, the UK and slowdown, not a collapse. Overall, and even India held an economic and financial with moderately subdued domestic demand dialogue aimed at boosting bilateral and an uncertain global trajectory, India is trade and investment. As part of forecast to maintain a GDP growth rate of this, new deals valued at over £1bn around 7-8% in FY2011/12. For FY2012/13, GDP expansion is forecast at around were signed. Bilateral trade reached 8.5%, supported by continuing domestic £13bn in 2010, up from around £11bn consumption and investment growth and in 2009, with UK exports to India with a boost from government spending. increasing by 28% and imports from that source increasing 27%. Moreover, BRICs GDP Growth 2002 - 2012 the UK is the largest inward investor % Growth into India and the latter is the UK’s 15 third largest investor, with the UK 12 recipient of more than 50% of India’s 9 investments into Europe. 6 Indian PM Manmohan Singh seeks 3 to increase bilateral trade to £24bn 2002 2012 0 within five years. -3 -6 -9 China India Russia Brazil Euler Hermes forecasts for 2011 and 2012. 3
Sector Focus: Travel Dirk Kotze Travel and Tourism businesses focussed on the domestic UK market Risk Underwriting Manager Fuel, Energy, Advertising are taking advantage of the currency weakness and anticipate an and Travel uplift in demand during the Olympic Games. The outlook, however, for travel businesses serving outbound tourism remains gloomy. The office for National Statistics recently The tougher environment combined with reported that overseas travel from the UK company specific issues have resulted in continued to decline in 2010 after a steep the failure of a number of operators/agents drop in 2009. Official figures released in 2011 – Gill’s Cruises, Dream Holidays on 28th July showed a fall of more than and Holidays 4 UK being some of the most 5% in visits abroad by UK residents last noteworthy recent examples. year, following an even bigger 15% decline during 2009. Reasons quoted are economic It is evident that travel businesses that and exchange rate challenges, along with have failed to differentiate their offers a number of travel disruptions, mostly and/or have not yet embraced new affecting air travel. technologies will find it most difficult to adjust their business models in the face of These statistics came as no surprise as we lower demand and increased competition have seen a tough travel market in the UK as from lower cost competitors. Cash is evidenced by public announcements of the all important and many businesses in bigger tour operators as well as proprietary this sector have been relying on growing information obtained through our Risk turnover to fund thinly capitalised balance Office network. sheets. During the good years many operators chose not to retain profits in their In a profit warning on 12th July, Thomas businesses and now have to rely on limited Cook Group plc announced an expected reserves. With both margins and volumes profit shortfall for the year due to travel under pressure, we expect an increased disruptions in the Middle East and North number of weaker operators to be exposed Africa as well as tough trading conditions before the end of the year. in the UK where there is a continued squeeze on consumers’ disposable income. Most consumer facing industries appear Similarly, on 12th May TUI Travel plc refer to to face an uncertain future in the medium operating results being affected by factors term and unforeseen business failures including significant headwinds from in the travel sector remain a significant political events in Egypt and Tunisia and risk. Despite the aforementioned market the weak UK economic environment, which pressures, we continue to underwrite was later confirmed in their interim results. substantial levels of credit in the travel industry. In support of our insured clients, Information obtained by our analysts show we underwrite nearly £500m of cover that smaller tour operators and agents are across 600 travel related business in the also finding a weaker market with demand UK. This support is made possible by the generally being flat at best. Even in the fact that many businesses in the industry cruising sector which has seen significant have recognised the benefits of providing growth in recent years, agents are reporting us with relevant, up to date information reduced growth and tighter margins. that enables us to make meaningful assessments of their credit worthiness. 4
Republic of Ireland: Retail fears realised Mike Buggy In our last review of Retail in March, we identified unmanageable Risk Underwriting Manager Ireland debt, built up during the “Celtic Tiger” years and inflexible rents, due to legacy leasehold commitment, as major threats to an Irish Retail sector struggling under the weight of austerity. Recent high profile examples of these issues In the case of Superquinn we did provide have emerged in the cases of Superquinn advanced warning to our clients in relation and Xtravision. This has served to highlight to the increased level of risk associated the vulnerability of unsecured creditors with the company in the 18 months prior in both “pre-pack” receiverships and to the receivership. In many cases our examinerships. policyholders were quite far advanced in managing down their exposures prior to the The McConnells pre-pack in 2010 was a formal appointment. watershed moment in insolvency practice as it was the first substantial pre-pack There will be a knock on effect to the receivership in Ireland leaving the way supplier base in the case of Superquinn. open for banks to consider its use as a This risk has been mitigated by the legitimate tool to mitigate losses. This accelerated retention of title payments event certainly heightened our awareness made by the receiver and the goodwill fund of the circumstances where a pre-pack is an established by Musgrave. option for the banks. The time has long since passed where it The same logic applied to examinership, is acceptable to trade with companies on where in the case of the National Lining reputation alone. This has been a feature Company of Ireland, a legal precedent was of the Irish Retail sector in the past and set in relation to the repudiation of leases. therefore access to information and This in effect created a mechanism for monitoring has never been so important. companies to exit onerous leases, providing There has been a marked change in the the court granted protection from creditors profile of insolvencies since January with and confirmed the examinership process. food retail up 36% with an insolvency rate Recent examples of companies exiting the of 2.3% and non-food retail up 127% with an process show that unless you have a strong insolvency rate of 1.72%. This is a worrying retention of title claim, the prospects of trend when compared against the average a meaningful recovery for an unsecured insolvency rate across all sectors of 0.65%. creditor is limited given the level of damages generally awarded to landlords. The outlook for the rest of 2011 is another record year of insolvencies so our analysts Our objective is to steer our clients away continue their vigilant watch over Irish from these risks and protect them from companies in order to continue protecting suffering bad debts. We have been very our clients from potential losses. active in our review of the challenges facing the retail sector and in many cases have successfully anticipated some of the emerging issues. 5
Brilliant move pays off The failure of any large business is a tragedy, and when it affects the future of others within the supply chain, the full impact can be catastrophic. It is for this very reason that many a turnaround plan and the promise of an thousands of businesses decide to credit injection of cash in April 2011 suggested insure, to protect them against the failure of the business might still have a future. Its a major customer - a failure that can often collapse two months after Endless acquired be as sudden as it is dramatic. the business was therefore somewhat of a surprise. The recent collapse of the discount retailer T J Hughes and the closure of its national For Brilliant Media as a key supplier to T portfolio of 57 stores is an excellent case J Hughes, the speed of the collapse was in point. T J Hughes can trace its history unexpected and most unwelcome. Brilliant back to 1912 and whilst its woes had been is one of the UK’s largest independent well documented in the past, and the media agencies with a turnover of c£90 business even taken to the brink of failure, million. For three years it had been buying 6
media space in the national and local has been easy to point the finger of blame at press on the retailer’s behalf, and stood credit insurers in the past but the reality is to lose a considerable amount of money if that they only ever pull cover when there is its client failed. Fortunately, Brilliant was good reason.” credit insured and so when the death knell sounded it was already in a good place, as The time from the point at which the Finance Director Craig Megretton explains: business looked like it had a future to one “Almost since Brilliant started in 1981 we where its future was well and truly behind have insured against customer insolvency it, was only two months. Despite Endless’ and for the last 10 years have been with confidence in T J Hughes’ potential, the two Euler Hermes UK,” he says. “In the media newly appointed Directors resigned and industry with high turnovers and low with the Quarter Day for rent pending, the margins, credit insurance is accepted ‘best business was wound up. practice’. In the case of T J Hughes, Craig says that its “We had been buying between £6.5m and payment record to Brilliant was exemplary: £7 million in media for T J Hughes each year “It was what we would call a ‘clean account’,” for the past few years, and were averaging he says. “They had stayed within their limit £500,000 per month which was more than and had paid for February and March so covered by the limit given by our insurer. the next tranches of invoices were only just At the end of 2010, however, Euler Hermes falling due.” notified us that the limit would be reduced since the risk had significantly increased This made a claim to Euler Hermes a simple and further information from T J Hughes process: T J Hughes went insolvent on 30th had not been forthcoming. June; Brilliant was promptly paid its claim on 11th July. As Craig says, in a competitive “We took the view that since Euler Hermes market of low margins, such a sum is far was effectively doing our ‘credit checking’ from insignificant: “It was very important for us, that if they said the limit had to for our own cashflow that we had the money be reduced then there must be very good as quickly as possible,” he says, “and this reason for doing so.” is something that Euler Hermes clearly recognised.” And so it proved right. T J Hughes had a very difficult 2010. Euler Hermes had been closely The claim resulting from the failure of T J monitoring and analysing information on Hughes has served to confirm Craig’s belief the company, and indeed had been at the in credit insurance, if any such reassurance point of cancelling all cover when, in March was needed: “It means I sleep better at 2011, Endless, a restructuring and business night,” he concludes. turnaround operator, entered the fray. David Smith, Head of Risk Underwriting at Euler Hermes takes up the story: “With the It was very important for arrival of Endless whom we had worked our cashflow that we had with previously, we decided to retain a level of exposure to support the turnaround. the money as quicky as Indeed, it was understood that the possible, this is something turnaround had started well and action had that Euler Hermes clearly been taken to strengthen the management team.” recognised. Craig Megretton concurs: “Euler Hermes Craig Megretton, could well have withdrawn our limit Finance Director, Brilliant Media altogether but clearly understood that for T J Hughes to survive, it needed to retain its route to market and its business model was heavily dependent on advertising. It 7
Sectors under pressure: It’s not just Retail... Paul Anderson Sluggish demand for housing and public sector cuts means Regional Risk Manager East Anglia, London and that Construction and Property are still difficult, while Print and South East Packaging are hit by paper and energy price hikes. In the regions, the North of England exceeds the national average for insolvency. In previous issues of our Risk Bulletin, we continued pressure on household incomes have reported on the difficulties faced by from low or no salary increases, job losses companies in the Construction sector. At and general price inflation will continue to the end of June 2011, the sector is at the have a marked effect on the sector this year. top spot in our UK insolvency volumes by sector table with the largest number of While Construction accounts for the insolvencies (1332 - 24%) by volume year largest volume of insolvencies however, the to date. This is reflected in the number of insolvency rate is higher in other sectors. claims and reports of overdue payments Furniture ranks No.1 in the UK for 2011 YTD we have received from our clients in the with an annualised rate of 2.62% (national same period. Public sector spending cuts average 0.74%). It is of no great surprise have impacted here, with reduced volumes that this is the case when we consider that of contracts for tender and ever more consumers’ ability to invest in non-essential competitive pricing. Sluggish demand for items is reduced and corporate customers housing has also had a negative effect. have looked to save costs. General demand Some companies in the sector are chasing in this sector has been weak throughout work at minimal margins – sometimes the year and we have seen retailers offering at considerable discount to cost. This large discounts to generate sales. The recent increased competition and pricing pressure administrations of Habitat, Lombok and has come at a time when input prices for Homeform (with brands Moben, Dolphin, products such as precast concrete and Sharps and Kitchens Direct) were predicted fabricated steelwork have continued to and we believe that there will be no recovery grow. With Construction output expected to for the Furniture sector in the foreseeable remain depressed through the remainder future. of 2011 and into 2012, the challenge for the sector will clearly remain significant. Print and Packaging are also among those at the higher end of the scale for insolvency Other sectors struggling in H1 2011 rates. Companies in both sectors have been are Property (Development, Letting hit by paper and energy price movements. Management and Trading) at 11%; Food However, whilst the insolvency rate is higher and Agriculture at 8%; Electronics at 8% for Packaging (2.33%), we have seen fewer and Non-food Retail at 7%. The Retail insolvencies here than for Print (2.03%) – environment has become more volatile where we continue to see smaller players as we have progressed through H1 2011 fail with regularity due to their inability to and has attracted a large amount of press pass on cost increases to customers. coverage. We have already seen significant insolvencies such as Habitat, Homeform, T.J. Hughes and Jane Norman - further high profile failures are anticipated. Given the 8
Sector Insolvency Rates H1 2011 Sector Insolvencies by volume Position NACE Group Insolvency Rate Metals 1% Film & Media 1% Chemicals 1% Furniture 1% 1 Furniture 2.62% Telecoms 1% Non-Food Wholesale 1% Health 1% General Manufacturing 1% Publishing 1% 2 Glass manufacture 2.51% Advertising1% Print 1.2% 3 Packaging 2.33% Recruitment 2% Construction 24% Leisure 2% 4 Metal Fabrication 2.28% Metal Fabrication 2% Engineering 2% 5 Print 2.03% Finance 2% Timber 3% 6 Other Services 1.71% Automotive 3% 7 Construction 1.66% Fuel, Travel & Transport 4% Property 11% 8 Timber 1.60% Textiles 4% 9 Recruitment 1.49% Other Services 5% Food & Agriculture 8% 10 Waste / Recycling 1.49% Non-food retail 7% Electronics 8% UK regions under pressure Looking ahead, assuming very low level GDP growth for the remainder of 2011 and 2012, With London and the South East accounting we anticipate that the Northern regions will for 46% of live companies in the UK, it is start to see some improvement like the rest logical that these areas account for the of the UK. The improvement will however larger volume of insolvencies in H1 2011. continue to lag the improvement seen in the Year to date they stand at 40% – with South – particularly the South East, which Greater London 26% and South East 14%. showed an annualised insolvency rate of Similarly, while Construction ranks No.1 0.58%. for insolvency volumes year to date, 34% of these come from Greater London and the South East – greater than the North East and North West combined at 23%. Greater London and the South East also account for 50% of Property insolvencies. Scotland It is, however, the insolvency rates that are of particular note. These show that the North East, Yorkshire & Humberside and Northern Ireland remain rooted to North East the top of the insolvencies table – though Northern Ireland North the rates of failure in H1 2011 have West Yorkshire improved. The North West has now joined & The Humber them at No.4, after sitting below the East Ireland East Midlands and East Anglia at the end of Midlands Q1 2011. Within the Northern regions, West East of Midlands it is those familiar industries that are Wales England Greater most affected – Construction, Furniture, London South Print and Packaging and Non-food Retail. South East West Within Northern Ireland, it is Construction and Furniture most affected. If we look within the Northern regions, Sunderland (annualised rate 2.16%), Manchester (2.04%), Insolvency Rate Sheffield (1.78%) and Bolton (1.58%) top the >1.25% table. All exceed the annualised national 1.00% - 1.25% average of 0.74% by quite some way. 0.75% - 1.00% 0.50% - 0.75%
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Regional Risk Offices London Risk Office (East Anglia, London and South East) 1 Canada Square London E14 5DX Birmingham Risk Office (Midlands, South West and Wales) 2nd floor 1 Colmore Row Birmingham B3 2BJ Manchester Risk Office (North and Scotland) Norfolk House 7 Norfolk Street Manchester M2 1DW Northern Ireland Risk Office 21 Linenhall Street Belfast BT2 8AB Republic of Ireland Risk Office The Arch Blackrock Business Park Carysfort Avenue Blackrock Co. Dublin UK DATA PROTECTION ACT 1998/REPUBLIC OF IRELAND DATA PROTECTION ACTS 1988 AND 2003 (“THE ACTS”) - INFORMATION NOTICE “Personal Data” as defined in the Acts, provided to Euler Hermes UK plc and any of its subsidiaries and branches, including Euler Hermes Collections UK Limited, Euler Hermes Risk Services UK Limited and Euler Hermes UK plc Republic of Ireland branch, will be processed for the purposes of carrying out credit insurance, risk assessments, credit management and other related activities. The data will be held securely and may be shared within the Euler Hermes Group or with responsible third parties, within or outside the EEA. You may write to the Data Protection Officer at the address shown for further information. For further information on the Acts please refer to the websites of the Information Commissioner in the UK at www.ico.gov.uk or the Data Protection Commissioner in the Republic of Ireland at www.dataprotection.ie. EHUK Risk Bulletin #8 Septembber 2011 © 2011 Euler Hermes UK Plc. The content of the report (which is subject to change without notice) reflects only our opinion, which is based on information received by us. Accordingly no warranty, representation or other assurance is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the report. The report is for general information and is not intended to address any requirements you may have, for which you must obtain independent advice. The report does not constitute any form of advice, recommendation or arrangement by Euler Hermes UK plc or by the Euler Hermes Group of Companies and must not be relied upon in the making of any decision, agreement or arrangement. Euler Hermes UK plc Registered in England and Wales No. 149786 1 Canada Square Registered office: 1 Canada Square, London E14 5DX London E14 5DX Tel: +44 (0)20 7512 9333 Euler Hermes UK plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Fax: +44 (0)20 7512 9186 12 www.eulerhermes.co.uk
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