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DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES www.csiro.au Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
CSIRO would like to acknowledge Defence Science and Technology Organisation
(DSTO) for the original concept and broad approach of describing the future
cyber landscape in terms of cyber dependency, threat and vulnerability within
a context of “increasing dependence on an increasingly vulnerable cyber
domain”. We also acknowledge DSTO for contributing their cyber security
expertise and methodology, as well as for their input into developing the
technology-use framework used to analyse sectoral technology dependence.
AUTHORS CSIRO engaged with both Commonwealth and State Departments and
Sandra Arico (CSIRO Futures) Industry stakeholders particularly relevant to the Government and
Vivek Srinivasan (CSIRO Futures) Commercial Services sector, Health Services and Energy Sector whilst
preparing this report and we would like to thank each of them for their
valuable input. Some of those Departments and Organisations included:
• NSW Department of Finance and Services
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
• Australia Post
© 2014 CSIRO. To the extent
• National E-Health Transition Authority (NEHTA)
permitted by law, all rights
are reserved and no part of • Jemena
this publication covered by Lastly, CSIRO would also like to acknowledge the support of the Digital
copyright may be reproduced Productivity and Services Flagship members Ian Oppermann, Jay Guo, Sarah
or copied in any form or by Dods, Geof Heydon and Helen Sargent, as well as assistance and insights provided
any means except with the by CSIRO’s Computational Informatics staff John Colton, John Zic, Surya Nepal,
written permission of CSIRO. Dimitrios Georgakopoulos, David Hansen, and Mark Paterson (Energy Flagship).
B Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
Contents
Executive Summary 3 Increased technology Cyber security threats: An increasingly
dependence: our a familiar yet evolving vulnerable environment 28
Introduction 4 digital future 9 landscape 23 A changing paradigm 29
Objectives and scope 4 Customer technology-use Understanding cyber Implications of a breach 29
Approach 4 trends 12 threats 24
Scenario analysis 30
The Australian context 5 Provider technology-use Threat actors 24
trends 15 Evolving threat Enabling Australia’s
A changing landscape 6 digital future: key
Customer-Provider landscape 26
Healthcare 7 technology-use trends 19 considerations 35
Implications going
Energy (Electricity) 7 Implications for ICT forward 27 People 36
Government 8 support infrastructure 21 Process 37
A complex digital future 22 Technology 38
Conclusion 38
References 39
1
2 Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
Executive Summary
Australia’s digital future is set to transform the nation. Our transition towards a more
digital economy will drive economic progress, improve social wellbeing, and open up new
opportunities for innovation and increased competitiveness on the global stage.
Continued technological advancement Advancements in technology may be Taking this direction requires a change
and rapid adoption are central to our contributing to these evolving security in perspective, recognising that cyber
progress, as new developments spur challenges, but they are also a key security is not solely a technology
more innovative business models, part of the solution. Developments in challenge. It is also a cultural challenge,
products and services, which are data analytics and machine learning and one that extends beyond traditional
crucial in responding to key national are allowing us to better understand information security practices. Alongside
and sectoral challenges - such as rising network anomalies and harness big data. investment in new cyber security tools
healthcare costs, increasing household Progress in cryptography techniques are and technologies that can keep pace
electricity prices and Government helping to better secure information. with evolving threat challenges, our
pressures to do more with less. As And sophisticated risk management nation’s future strategies require a
technology and digital solutions modelling tools are allowing leaders to commitment to improving cyber security
continue to play a key role in driving make more informed cyber decisions. skills, awareness and education, as
the economy and society forward, they well as an imperative to evolve cyber
Whilst progress has been made
become increasingly embedded into security perceptions to understand
towards improving and advancing
business operations, across key service the central role this capability has
cyber security solutions, we are at
offerings and into our personal lives. in enabling our digital future.
risk of becoming complacent. Amidst
Australia’s future is digital, hyper- an environment of continuous, rapid Successfully navigating the road ahead
connected and critically dependent change, with increasing levels of will require a whole-of-nation effort,
on technology, making strong cyber complexity and uncertainty, we cannot harnessing the full range of resources
security capability crucial to navigating afford to rely solely on past and present available across our economy. Alongside
the associated risks and opportunities solutions. Ensuring Australia’s digital existing national and defence-related
ahead. Our increased dependence on success into the future will require strategies, the research community
technology, combined with the evolving bold cyber security leadership and in partnership with industry and
complexity and sophistication of cyber further investment now. It will require Government have a vital role to play,
security threats, together increase our ongoing science and technology through applying innovation and
level of vulnerability – at a national, research that can identify emerging cutting-edge technology to the people,
organisational and individual level. cyber security challenges and develop process and technology solutions
practical solutions. And it will require a needed going forward. Through
cultural shift, extending cyber security the integration of knowledge, ideas
responsibility out to every organisation, and resources, we can ensure strong
every government, and every individual. cyber security capability is at the core
of a digitally-enabled Australia.
Dr Ian Oppermann
Director, Digital Productivity
and Services Flagship, CSIRO
3
Introduction
Australia’s transition to a digital
economy is opening up new and exciting
Objectives and scope • A changing landscape. Focusing on
three key representative sectors –
opportunities for innovation and global The objectives of this report are to: healthcare, energy and government
competitiveness. It is driving change – this section provides an overview
across key sectors such as healthcare, • increase general awareness of broad economic and social
energy and government and facilitating and understanding of digital trends, which are driving change
greater levels of social and economic trends and implications for and leading to increased digitisation
prosperity. However, these new cyber security in Australia; and technology use nationally;
opportunities are also driving a greater • provide a broad overview of • Increased technology dependence:
dependence on technology – which the current and future cyber our digital future. Looking at emerging
is constantly evolving, increasing in security needs and challenges technology trends, this section analyses
complexity and continuously exposed on a national level; how technology usage and dependence
to a sophisticated landscape of cyber is changing across each of the sectors.
• present key considerations and
threats. This challenge is compounded strategic questions to serve as input A technology-use framework is
when you consider the blurring lines for forward planning and investment adopted, which considers various
between people, organisations, considerations into the future. usage trends across sectoral providers
processes, services and technologies (organisations) and customers
A time frame of approximately
that require seamless interaction and (consumers), and broader technology
ten years (to 2025) has been
trust across the cyber ecosystem. trends related to underlying ICT
considered in analysing trends and
As a result, our national progress is presenting future scenarios. support infrastructure;
directly tied to our ability to minimise • Cyber security threats: a familiar
Key considerations and strategic
risk exposure without limiting yet evolving landscape. Considering
questions for cyber security have been
progress – making cyber security a the cyber security threats landscape,
posed in the broad areas of people,
capability of crucial importance. this section explores various types
process and technology. Specific
of threats, different threat actors and
recommendations have not been
their motivations, as well as how
included in this report, as they will be
the landscape overall is evolving in
the subject of further collaborative effort
complexity and sophistication;
in partnership with industry, government
and the research community. The • An increasingly vulnerable
questions posed are intended as environment. Combining increased
input into these further discussions technology dependence and
and strategic planning activities. connectivity, alongside a more
sophisticated and complex threat
landscape, this section examines
Approach the implications on our level of
cyber security vulnerability.*
Like any complex system, cyber space
Considered from a broad, national
is made up of many interrelated
perspective, potential exploitation
parts, which can be examined to
of vulnerabilities is explored
help us better understand the overall
using three future scenarios
system – and in this case, to help
across each of the key sectors;
us gain a clearer understanding
of our cyber security needs and
challenges going forward. Figure 1.0
highlights this approach, reflected
in the report structure as follows:
*This methodology of technology dependency overlaid with threats to understand vulnerabilities has been adapted from collaborations with DSTO,
as well as from other cyber security methodologies.(1),(2),(3) Traditionally, vulnerability assessments are conducted at a very technical level within
organisations. For this paper we have adopted the methodology to look broadly at vulnerabilities across national sectors.
4 Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
• Enabling Australia’s digital future:
key considerations. Bringing
The Australian context • The Australian Bureau of
Statistics Personal Fraud Survey
together the dependency, threat and A common question raised in response indicated that over the 12 month
vulnerability analyses, this section to cyber security is whether threats period from 2010-11(8):
looks at the broad implications for and breaches are happening here in – An estimated 1.2 million
Australia’s current and future cyber Australia. Much of the cyber security Australians aged 15 years and
security, outlining key strategic data and cases reported point to other over were victim to at least one
questions for consideration in countries around the world, which can incident of personal fraud
enabling Australia’s digital future. lead to a misconception that this is not – Australians lost $1.4 billion as
an issue to be taken seriously on our a result of personal fraud
FIGURE 1.0 – APPROACH SUMMARY own soil. It is not possible to present
– An estimated 44,700 Australians
a complete picture of cyber security
were victims of identity theft
threats and breaches due to many
Broad social and economic trends cases going unreported or being of a – Approximately 6.4 million
classified nature and therefore unable Australians were exposed to a scam
DRIVING to be publicly shared. However, publicly
available information provides enough
Increased use of and data to illustrate the reality of the ASIO building plans stolen
dependence on technology challenge we are facing here in Australia:
It has been reported the
INCREASING EXPOSURE TO • Whilst many instances of cybercrime Australian Security Intelligence
go unreported, non-government Organisation (ASIO) building
More complex and estimates put the cost of cybercrime security and communication
sophisticated cyber threats in Australia as high as $2 billion systems blueprints were stolen in
annually.(4) Defence estimates that a major cyber attack in 2013.(9)
LEADING TO in 2012, 5.4 million Australians
were victims of cyber crime.(5)
Increased levels of cyber • According to antivirus vendor
security vulnerability Trend Micro, Australian computers Assuming deceased identities
experienced 17,692,567 malware An unlawful foreign national
HEIGHTENING infections in 2008. Australia falsely assumed the identity of
reported the fifth highest level four deceased individuals, with
Impacts of cyber breaches of infections worldwide.(6) almost $76,000 of false benefit
(explored through future scenarios) • CERT Australia, the national computer claims made.(10)
emergency response team and the
PROVIDING THE IMPERATIVE FOR single point of contact for cyber
security issues affecting major This is just a snapshot of data
Collaborative, targeted action Australian businesses, reported highlighting the reality that cyber
and investment in cyber security close to 7,300 incidents in 2012. security challenges are not confined
solutions – across people, The following year, incidents to a just handful of nations – every
process and technology increased, with approximately country is affected and every country
8,500 reported by mid-August.(7) has a role to play in enabling better
national and global cyber security.
5
A changing landscape Understanding Australia’s cyber security needs and challenges is a complex task, considering technology use and digital connectivity cut across all sectors, organisations and individuals, in multiple ways and to varying degrees. In considering this complex system, we have focused on a subset of sectors to help us understand the broader national picture and the common trends and patterns evolving across all dimensions. The three sectors are healthcare (focussing on health services), energy (focussing on electricity) and government (focussing on government services), all of which are considered critical to Australia’s sustained economic prosperity and social wellbeing, and whose services impact the wider population. The following section presents an overview of the broad economic and social trends across these sectors, which are driving change and leading to increased digitisation and use of technology. These trends serve as a backdrop to the detailed technology dependency analysis that follows. 6 Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
Healthcare Energy (Electricity)
SECTOR SUMMARY • More people are using health services, SECTOR SUMMARY
driving healthcare costs up
The healthcare sector is in the midst The electricity grid is modernising
exponentially. More Australians (young
of a turbulent transformation. towards a smart grid, improving
and old) are increasingly visiting
As the population ages and visibility, reliability, monitoring
doctors, having a higher number of
lifestyle-related illness continues and control of the electricity
tests and operations and taking more
to rise, increasing pressure will be network. In addition to enabling
prescription medication.(17) These
placed on the healthcare system, a greater use of emerging
conditions are resulting in higher
with costs expected to grow to technologies (such as renewables),
healthcare costs per person and
unsustainable proportions. This modernisation will help to reduce
increased health expenditure across the
creates an increasingly challenging operating costs, particularly
system, with government health
environment in which healthcare those related to servicing peak
spending in Australia estimated to grow
providers will need to operate, demands, which account for a large
from 4% of GDP in 2009-10 to 7.1% in
with several implications for the portion of Australia’s electricity
2049-50.(14) Unchecked, healthcare
health services industry. Demand expenditure. This will in turn help
expenditure could consume as much as
for health services will continue to control electricity price rises
40% of Australian taxes by 2043.(18)
to grow, as will expenditure, and consumer bill ‘price shocks’.
driving changes in the nature and • Demands on health services workers
delivery of care, as well as creating are changing. By 2050, the demand
new models for care outside of for aged care staff will quadruple
due to an ageing population.(19)
Key trends:
existing traditional institutions.
An increased number of aged and • Household electricity prices are
chronically ill patients will also likely increasing. Household electricity
increase the need for longer-term prices increased by 70% between
Key trends: care, requiring a greater breadth 2007 and 2012,(22) resulting in a ‘price
• Australia’s population is ageing. of skills to allow workers to be shock’ to Australian consumers. Whilst
Between 2012 and 2060 the number more effective with these patients.(20) there are a number of reasons for
of people aged over 75 years The result will be greater competition this increase, a large portion was as a
will grow by approximately four for healthcare workers. result of network costs (such as major
million people, an increase roughly • Delivery of care is changing, from electricity network upgrades),(23) which
equivalent to the current population institutions to independence. are forecast to increase. The current
of Sydney.(11) This is in part due to There will be an increased drive five year cycle for transmission and
advancements in science, technology away from institutional care and distribution networks, for example, will
and healthcare, which are enabling towards alternative community and see an increase in investment of 16%
people to live longer. In 1901, the independent care options, with and 60% (real terms) respectively.(24)
average life expectancy in Australia advances in technology enabling • Servicing peak demand is expected to
was just 47 years;(12) by 2025, it this transition.(21) Additionally, remain a key cost driver. To ensure
will increase to over 80 years.(13) in comparison to previous reliability of services and electricity
• Lifestyle-related illness and generations, Australia’s elders generation, network capacity is
chronic disease are on the rise. will be better educated and more designed to accommodate the highest
Non-communicable diseases such tech-savvy, with improved financial amount of electricity consumption
as cardiovascular disease, cancer, resources, more purchasing power, (peak demand) at any point in time.
respiratory disease and diabetes, will and higher expectations.(13) This peak demand is often driven by
account for almost 69% of total deaths extremes in weather, such as a heat
in 2030 (up from 59% in 2002).(14) wave or cold snap. By its nature, peak
The World Health Organisation is demand occurs infrequently, yet still
calling this an ‘invisible epidemic’.(15) requires a large proportion of
The Australian Institute of Health and investment. For example, in New South
Welfare note that from 2003-2033, Wales, peak demand events occurring
treatment costs for diabetes alone for less than 40 hours per year (or
will increase by as much as 436% to less than 1% of the time) account for
$8.6 billion.(16) around 25% of retail electricity bills.(22)
Whilst future rates of peak demand are
uncertain, limiting its growth is
7
projected to save 2 c/kWh each year on
the costs of electricity distribution
Government • Governments face increasing
pressure to do more with less.
between 2020 and 2050.(23) As demand for government services
• The use of renewable power increases and budgets tighten,
SECTOR SUMMARY pressure will continue to be placed
generation is growing. There is
growing societal pressure to reduce Government departments and on governments to ‘do more with
the electricity sector’s greenhouse gas agencies are digitising processes, less’. Virtually all governments are
emissions, which in Australia is the systems and services in the face of reducing staff levels, often without
single largest source of emissions.(23) greater consumer expectations, any real reduction in service levels.(29)
This is resulting in a significant push tightening budgets and increasingly Governments that can adapt and move
for renewable energy sources such as complex operating environments. to shared models of services, labour
wind, solar, hydro and geothermal. This transition to a more and resources through increasingly
By 2049-50, it is expected that connected, digital government or networked and digitised approaches,
approximately 51% of Australia’s ‘e-government’, is occurring at both will have the ability to remain lean but
electricity generation will be from state and federal levels and includes still deliver on their mission.(29) In line
renewable sources (up from 13% in an increase in online services, with this, the Department of Finance
2012-13) with a large percentage coming coordinated whole-of-government estimates that their co-ordinated,
from wind (21%) and solar (16%).(25) strategies (such as consolidated ICT whole-of government approach to
infrastructure), as well as improved data centres will avoid $1 billion in
• The grid is moving towards two-way costs over the next 10-15 years.(30)
collaboration and information
management and control. Australia’s
sharing across government and • Digitised services can help to cut
electricity grid largely operates with
with businesses and citizens. costs and increase productivity.
systems, processes and technologies
that are designed to manage energy Globally, successful e-government
flow in a single direction – from large projects have reduced transaction
generators to customers. However, Key trends: costs and processing times, and
improvements in technology (including increased government revenues.(29)
• Consumer preferences are changing. In Australia, the introduction of the
renewable technology) supported Consumers are increasingly choosing
by changes in policy, are enabling Department of Immigration and
to interact via online channels and will
electricity to be generated at or close Citizenship’s ‘SkillSelect’ system in
expect that governments are agile and
to the point of consumption. This 2012 has seen a 200% increase in
keep pace with private sector digital
allows surplus power to be fed back online skilled migrant applications
maturity. In 2012, Australians showed
into the distribution network.(22) This and a 20-30% reduction in referrals
a strong preference for the use of
concept, known as distributed (or to exception processing at Sydney
e-government service channels over
on-site) generation, creates two-way Airport through the Border Risk
other means of interaction, with two
energy flows, which must be carefully Identification System.(28) Digitised
thirds of people using e-government
monitored to ensure reliability. services can also assist governments
for their most recent contact.(27) By
to contribute to productivity gains
• New developments are leading to 2020, four out of five Australians will
across the economy, through
a smarter grid. Requirements to choose to engage with Government
unlocking value in shared data.(31)
manage peak demand, decrease through the internet or other types of
carbon emissions and facilitate on-site online service.(28) However, in order • Governments are operating in an
generation are driving a modernised, to satisfy consumer expectations increasingly complex environment.
‘smarter’ electricity grid, allowing into the future, governments will The issues faced by the public sector
greater visibility, reliability, monitoring need to recognise the importance are increasingly multi-dimensional in
and control of the network. This of convenience in interactions and nature and require more collaborative
modernisation (which includes the the need to meet or exceed private effort between governments,
roll-out of smart meters) is not unique sector service standards.(27) departments, agencies and public and
to Australia. USA, Canada, Europe, private communities to innovate and
Great Britain, Ireland, Japan and develop more sophisticated solutions.
(29) A key theme from the 2012 OECD
Korea for example, all have regions
with smart grid and smart meter E-Leaders meeting(32) acknowledged
projects deployed or underway.(26) this, stating that governments need to
take steps to defragment as they are
historically structured to solve domain-
specific problems. ICT and better
information flow across boundaries
were seen as key enablers of improved
collaboration and co-ordination.
8 Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implicationsIncreased technology dependence:
our digital future The world is undergoing a digital transformation,
driven by rapid technological innovation and
uptake. Technology is becoming increasingly
embedded into our personal lives, the way we
do business and the way we govern our nation.
This is transforming Australia into a truly digital
and highly competitive economy, with cyber
security capability central to our success.
9To understand our future cyber
FIGURE 2.0 – TECHNOLOGY-USE FRAMEWORK
security needs, it is important to
gain an appreciation of our future
technology dependence. Given the pace
CUSTOMER PROVIDER
of technology change, it is impossible
(Citizen or Business) (Healthcare and Energy
to predict exactly how technology
providers; Government
usage will evolve over the next decade.
Departments and Agencies)
However, signs of our digital future are
Processes supported by software that
runs on ICT support infrastructure
already here. Pockets of our economy
TECHNOLOGY USERS
Customer only Provider only
that are more progressive, as well as How will customers use How will providers use
specific technologies that are highly technology in the future? technology in the future?
advanced and ahead of the curve, give
us insight into how the nation could be Customer-to-customer Provider-to-provider
transformed if adoption was widespread. How will customers use How will providers use
technology to change the technology to change the
In exploring some of these way they interact with way they interact with
developments, this section focuses on each other in the future? each other in the future?
emerging technology usage trends across
the key sectors of healthcare, energy
Customer-to-Provider and Provider-to-Customer
(electricity) and government, providing
How will customers and providers use technology to change
a snapshot of our digital future.
the way they interact with each other in the future?
Adopting a technology-use framework
(Figure 2.0), we consider emerging ICT Support Infrastructure
TECHNOLOGY ENABLERS
technology usage trends across sectoral
providers (organisations) and customers • Networks (such as fixed (LAN), wireless
(Wi-Fi), mobile (2G, 3G, 4G), cloud etc.)
(consumers), and how these and broader
technology trends are impacting • End-points (such as PCs, laptops, tablets, Smartphones,
underlying ICT support infrastructure. smart meters, supervisory controls, sensors, wearable
Customers and providers are considered devices etc.)
to be the primary technology users, with • Data storage (such as storage on secure servers,
underlying ICT support infrastructure caching on mobile devices etc.)
components presented as the enablers
• Processing (such as processing in servers (private or
to that usage (i.e. the systems, networks, cloud), and at client-end (such as hand held devices))
processes and devices that allow us to
use and interface with technology).
The technology-use framework presents
a simplified picture of what is in reality
a complex ecosystem of non-linear,
dynamic processes, platforms and
interactions. It is not intended as a
Across each of the sectors, providers and customers are considered to be:
comprehensive model, acknowledging
that the lines between all dimensions
of users and technology enablers are CUSTOMERS PROVIDERS
becoming increasingly blurred and
interconnected. The trends explored Healthcare Citizens and recipients Public and private
are also not intended to be exhaustive, of health services hospitals, GPs,
but provide an evidence-based allied health, etc
indication of how the sectors and our
Energy Citizens and businesses Electricity generators,
nation are digitally evolving. Figure 3.0
(Electricity) that are recipients of distributors and retailers
provides a high level summary of these
electricity services
trends, which are explored in detail
in the next section. This provides us Government All citizens and All government
with the foundation to explore cyber businesses departments and agencies
security implications going forward.
10 Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implicationsFIGURE 3.0 – TECHNOLOGY DEPENDENCY TREND SUMMARY
CUSTOMER PROVIDER CUSTOMER-PROVIDER
TECHNOLOGY-USE TRENDS TECHNOLOGY-USE TRENDS TECHNOLOGY-USETRENDS
SUMMARY: The future customer SUMMARY: The future provider will be data SUMMARY: The future customer-
will be increasingly empowered, driven, breaking down existing barriers to share provider relationship will open
with greater choice, a louder information, skills, knowledge and infrastructure, up unprecedented levels of
voice and a stronger connection within and outside of their organisation. communication, personalisation
to local and global communities. and collaborative engagement,
improving service delivery and creating
new opportunities for growth.
Customer only Provider only Customer-to-Provider/
• Shifting from provider- • Rapidly evolving service delivery by Provider-to-Customer
centric to patient-centric transitioning to a more digital environment • Relationship between customers
• Customers more actively • Enabled by electronic health records, and healthcare providers will
involved in own care cloud computing and mobility, and a new continue to evolve and deepen
• Enabled by personal health generation of diagnostic technologies • Greater personalisation and
records, personal monitoring more frequent interactions
Provider-to-Provider
HEALTH
devices and mobile applications • Increased opportunity for
• Shifting from silos to a connected
preventative care and outreach
Customer-to-Customer health services ecosystem
through new remote care
• Relationship expanding to • Integrating of data, knowledge and expertise and consultation models
encompass patient, family • Enabling improved diagnosis, treatment,
and the community patient mobility, access to care and
• Increasingly empowered scientific research opportunities
and connected patients
• Enabled largely by social media
and community websites
Customer only Provider only Customer-to-Provider/
• Shifting from reactive • Step change in decision-making and load Provider-to-Customer
and consumption-based forecasting by combining real-time smart meter • Evolving relationship between
to more engaged and data and advanced analytics and modelling customers and providers as smart
proactive customers • Greater application of advancements meters improve communication
• Generating own energy and in remote monitoring, distributed and real-time monitoring
monitoring consumption generation and storage technologies • Greater information
• Enabled by real-time data sharing, improved demand
Provider-to-Provider
management and personalised
ENERGY
from smart meters and apps
connected to appliances, • Provider-to-provider relationship transforming, energy pricing schemes
buildings and homes integrating data and information through use
• Incorporation of personal electricity
of smart meters
generation back into the grid
Customer-to-Customer • Enabling smarter electricity grid, increased
• Interacting in new ways grid efficiencies and greater control
and influencing electricity and reliability of electricity
developments e.g. new
consumer electricity
sharing models
• Enabled by social media and
energy technology advances
Customer-to-Customer Provider only Customer-to-Provider/
• Rise of ‘e-democracy’ • Digitising operations to reduce costs and increase Provider-to-Customer
leading to more policy flexibility e.g. leveraging cloud services, analytics, etc • Interactions increasingly
debate and discussion • Improving processes and employee flexibility moving online
GOVERNMENT
• Faster, larger scale through teleworking and mobility technologies • Enabling improved communication,
conversations happening greater control (self-management),
outside of government Provider-to-Provider
increased information accessibility,
channels – presents • Greater sharing of data and services, more efficient transactions
opportunities and challenges infrastructure consolidation and whole- and lower cost to serve
• Enabled by social media of-gov. technology roadmaps
• Leading to improved experience,
and online collaboration • Greater integration, process efficiencies, reduced especially when dealing
duplication, improved decision-making and a with multiple departments
better view of operations and national needs and/or agencies
11Customer technology-use trends
The future customer will be increasingly empowered, with greater choice, a louder
voice and a stronger connection to local and global communities.
Healthcare • Growth in the use and sophistication
of smart phones and mobile
• Online health platforms are using
innovative approaches to connect
applications (apps) is empowering consumers to one another in a
individuals with unprecedented more personalised way, as well
CUSTOMER ONLY control of their personal health. In as improving the information on
The focus in health services is 2012, one in five US smart phone offer. Online patient community
shifting from being provider-centric owners had at least one health app PatientsLikeMe engages with and
to patient-centric, with customers and 31% used their phones to look empowers individuals through
taking a more active role in their up medical information.(38) By 2016, knowledge and peer support,
own care through the use of as many as 142 million downloads connecting those with similar medical
personal health records, personal of mobile health and fitness apps is conditions and allowing for tracking
monitoring devices and mobile anticipated.(39) and sharing of personal experiences.
applications. This shift is expected Launched in 2004, PatientsLikeMe
to play a pivotal role in creating now has over 200,000 patients on the
CUSTOMER-TO-CUSTOMER platform and tracks 1,800 diseases.(42)
a proactive and preventative
health culture in Australia. Through the use of social media, • Consumers are increasingly being
the healthcare relationship is given more power and a stronger
expanding beyond the traditional voice through social media.
Early indicators: patient-doctor relationship to Independent site Patient Opinion(43)
include a new customer-to-customer allows patients to share feedback
• Australian Government’s personally relationship, encompassing the on experiences with health service
controlled electronic health record patient, their family and the providers, helping others to make
(PCEHR) is enabling individuals to community. These relationships decisions about their own care, as
own and control their own personal will result in increasingly well as driving improvements within
health record, as well as share it. empowered and connected the healthcare system. Significantly,
PCEHR provides significant value individuals, moving care away high volumes of feedback have been
to those with chronic illness and from being a solitary experience. experienced from hard-to-reach
disabilities, caregivers for the elderly
groups such as the elderly, disabled
and parents with small children.(33)
and homeless, which Patient Opinion
By 2013/14, PCEHRs are expected to
Early indicators: CEO attributes to people wanting
reach 1.5 million registrations.(34)
“their voice to count for something,
• The market for wearable health • One third of Americans have gone especially vulnerable people… this is
and fitness devices (such as wrist online to better understand theirs
because they normally don’t know
watches, chest and arm bands) is or another’s medical condition, with
how to get their voice heard.”(44)
growing rapidly and estimated to 26% in 2012 having read about or
reach 170 million devices in 2017, up watched someone else’s experience
from 21 million in 2011.(35) This new with health or medical issues, and
generation of wearable devices have 16% having tried to find others who
the ability to monitor and wirelessly share similar health concerns.(40)
transmit health data on blood • Health content and community
pressure, heart sounds and electrical websites are continuing to spring up,
activity, body and skin temperature, offering up-to-date, often expert-
respiration, oxygen saturation and checked information and advice to
blood glucose.(36) Advancements will consumers on medical conditions.
continue, evidenced by radical new Medical website WebMD has grown
innovations, such as the smart contact in popularity exponentially, with an
lens for Glaucoma detection.(37) estimated 80 million unique visitors
per month (as of March 2014),(41)
providing knowledge, as well as
hundreds of discussion communities,
where members and experts can share
and respond to health questions.
12 Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implicationsEnergy • At-home (on-site) electricity
generation is expected to increase as
Early indicators:
technology costs fall and electricity • Although currently a minor segment
bills continue to rise. Between 2008 of the car market, electric vehicles
CUSTOMER ONLY and 2012, the total estimated install are attracting the attention of
capacity of rooftop solar systems state governments, due to growing
The focus is shifting from a reactive,
increased from 23MW to 1,450MW; consumer awareness, goals to improve
consumption-based model, to one
based on a moderate growth scenario, air quality, economic benefits and
where customers (citizens and
the Australian Energy Market Operator energy infrastructure needs (such
businesses) are more engaged
(AEMO) estimate that capacity as re-fuelling stations).(52),(53) Unlike
and proactively monitoring their
will hit approximately 12,000MW traditional combustion engine
energy consumption, through
by 2031.(50) New business models vehicles, which require refuelling at
real-time data from smart meters
may increase uptake (such as solar specialised, infrastructure-intensive
and applications connected to
leasing schemes found in the US(51)). locations (i.e. petrol stations),
appliances, as well as through the
However, the growth rate of solar electric refuelling can occur almost
generation of their own energy
rooftop systems (or similar on-site anywhere, opening the door to new
(such as the use of renewable
generation methods) will be highly customer-to-customer electricity
energy sources).
dependent on Government policy. sharing models. This is already
happening amongst citizens and
businesses, such as the US City of San
Early indicators: CUSTOMER-TO-CUSTOMER Francisco, which operates electric
• Energy monitoring, automation and Advances in technology are vehicle charging stations in city-
control for non-residential buildings enabling customers (citizens and owned parking facilities, including
are expected to increase. This will businesses) to interact in new ways, the San Francisco International
be particularly important for heating, with the potential to influence Airport.(54) In 2013, the major retailer
ventilation and air-conditioning developments in the electricity Kroger also announced plans to
(HVAC), which are estimated to sector. The growth in use of offer charging stations at a number
consume 9% of Australia’s electricity electric vehicles for example, is of locations.(42) With the electric
and create over 55% of peak demand opening the door to new consumer vehicle market expected to grow to
in CBD buildings.(45) The value of electricity sharing models; whilst 5-7% market share of total car sales
smart meter data to monitor and increasing use of social media by 2020(55), electricity sharing in the
control electricity consumption will is enabling communities to consumer market could also increase,
grow as building energy efficiency form around common issues of which has the potential to cause
standards rise to include six, concern with a louder voice. significant shifts in the electricity
seven and eight star ratings.(46) sector (for example, through changes
in electricity load requirements(56)).
• Increasing sensitivity to electricity
price rises is leading to a greater
adoption of in-home energy
management devices and
applications, wirelessly connected
to data from smart meters. The
sophistication of energy management
will increase as homes become
connected with smart devices
(machine-to-machine), such as
the smart fridge, television and
thermostat.(47) This will allow
consumers to monitor, control and
optimise consumption across their
entire household.(48) In future, this
may lead to ‘set and forget’ home
monitoring approaches, allowing
consumers to completely automate
electricity consumption-monitoring
based on their personalised needs.(49)
13• Web-based platforms have the
potential to strengthen the voice of
Government
communities and mobilise change
around common issues of concern and
importance. An example in the energy
CUSTOMER-TO-CUSTOMER
sector is the debate about smart Social media and online
meter safety. Whilst energy providers collaboration are enabling a new
and state government departments form of ‘e-democracy’, leading to
have provided assurances that smart unprecedented levels of citizen-
metering devices are being installed to-citizen policy debate and
safely and meet health and safety discussion. As a result, public
standards,(57),(58) online platforms have opinion and discourse is occurring
been used to enable anti-smart meter at a faster rate and on a larger
campaigns. A number of community scale outside of government
websites have sprung up to influence channels, posing both challenges
the banning of smart meters(59) and and opportunities for the sector.
cases of physical meter damage have
also been investigated by police.(60)
Whilst smart meter rollout is still Early indicators:
continuing in Australia and around
the world, such groups have the • Web-based communication is fast • Online collaboration to enable
potential to stall progress, as a strong evolving to create new opportunities large-scale change is extending
community voice demands a response. and challenges. The widespread use beyond the citizen, to include
As social media and online channels of the internet as a communication businesses with some serious power.
grow in use and influence, customers channel has changed the way we A large-scale example of this was the
will continue to demand greater disseminate, access and process 2012 co-ordinated online protests
transparency, access to information information, presenting significant against two proposed laws in the US
and a voice in decision-making, opportunities for greater openness, Congress – the Stop Online Piracy Act
requiring electricity sector businesses transparency and accountability.(61) (SOPA) and the Protect IP Act (PIPA).
to engage more closely with the Online communication is not new, Protests were based on concerns that
community, as well as consider but with an increasing number of measures in these acts would harm
cultural change elements in the rollout people connected to the web and the free distribution of information
of any new large-scale technologies. collaborative platforms constantly and lead to censorship if abused.(63)
evolving, citizens from all corners Several influential websites, such as
of the world are being empowered the English Wikipedia, considered
to discuss key issues, share ideas and temporarily closing their content in
effect real change on unprecedented protest; other sites such as Google,
levels (such as GetUp!(57) and Mozilla and Flickr featured protests
WikiLeaks(58)). However, the anonymity against the acts; and some shut
and reach that the web enables can down completely. It is estimated that
pose new risks, particularly if 115,000 websites joined the internet
information is inaccurate, falsified or protest,(64) which then extended
misleading.(62) This will require the offline and was reported globally.
continued adaptation of policy and The impact of these collaborative
regulatory frameworks to reflect protests was the shelving of the
and respond to online developments. piracy bills and ceasing of further
Despite challenges and risks, voting and progress.(65) The New York
citizen-led online communication, Times called this a “political coming
including via social media platforms, of age from the tech industry”.(66)
will continue to play a key role
outside of formal government
communication channels.
14 Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implicationsProvider technology-use trends
The future provider will be data driven, breaking down existing barriers to share information,
skills, knowledge and infrastructure, within and outside of their organisation.
Healthcare • Investment in cloud computing will
increase over the next decade in
Early indicators:
order to drive provider efficiencies • At a provider level, Australia’s
across IT operations. By 2018, as many PCEHRs have experienced positive
PROVIDER ONLY as 19,000 hospitals across Asia Pacific traction, growing from 3,039
will adopt cloud solutions.(69) By 2023, organisations registered to 4,502
Providers are rapidly evolving
pay-as-you-go clinical software is also between May and July 2013. While an
service delivery through
expected to be used via the cloud estimate of 53% of General Practices
transitioning to a more digital
across a number of providers, allowing (GPs) are currently registered in
environment, enhanced by
compatibility and interoperability Australia,(34) greater opportunities
electronic health records, cloud
of systems from finance to clinical are possible if adoption increases
computing and mobility, and a
departments.(69) across all providers (such as
new generation of diagnostic
pharmacies, aged care facilities and
technologies. • Adoption of new and emerging hospitals), such as in countries like
diagnostic technologies will reduce
New Zealand, Denmark and Sweden,
testing costs, improve patient
who are further along in provider
Early indicators: experience and deliver greater
adoption rates(72). Australia can look
outcomes. The high growth point-
• Digitisation of providers extends to these international experiences
of-care-testing market, expected to
beyond adoption of electronic health for lessons; however progress will
reach over $9 billion by 2019,(70) is
records and paperless environments. be highly dependent on sector and
creating a new generation of portable,
Most providers have begun investing government policy decisions.
non-invasive, bedside diagnostic
in the re-architecture of technology • Video conferencing, analytics and
devices, which provide accurate
systems, applications and processes. cloud-based services are enabling
monitoring and results within minutes
For example, a number of Australian providers to integrate and leverage
and allow faster physician decision
hospitals have increased investment services from specialist providers.
and action times. Phillips and Google
in wireless technologies to enable For example, through telemonitoring
are also demonstrating innovative
care from ambulances to rooms,(67) as technologies,(73) an experienced
progress through their “Google Glass”
well as integration of biomedical and professional can supervise, train and
technology, which will in future
environmental machine-to-machine assist a fellow practitioner on medical
allow clinicians to gain hands-free,
sensors and mobility investments procedures remotely. In future, this
voice-controlled access to critical
allowing data to be displayed, stored may extend to telesurgery, where
information while operating or mobile
and transferred between central surgical procedures are conducted
through the hospital – enabling faster
nursing stations to a physician’s remotely via a robotic surgical system;
analysis, diagnosis and response.(71)
tablet or handheld device(68). such as the pioneering laparoscopic
cholecystectomy successfully
PROVIDER-TO-PROVIDER conducted on a patient in 2001 in
Integration of data, knowledge France.(74) Although feasible, there
and expertise across providers are still challenges present, such as
(underpinned by the rise of network latency and equipment cost.
electronic health records) is
transforming healthcare from siloed
operations to a truly connected
ecosystem of health services. This
will enable improved diagnosis and
treatment, greater patient mobility,
increased access to care and greater
scientific research opportunities.
15• In combination with real-time
analytics, health providers will have
Energy • Providers are facing an explosion of
data generated by smart meters,
the ability to make new scientific which are measuring electricity usage
discoveries. Hood and Flores predict in 30 minute intervals (compared to
the discovery and advancement of
PROVIDER ONLY the historic monthly meter readings).
health research will shift from being Energy providers have used Across Victoria, this equates to over
communicated primarily through technology for decades to improve 17,000 meter reads per year for
articles and journals to being operations, such as using control each of the 2.5 million smart meters
“integrated through digital networks systems to drive greater efficiencies installed across the state.(79) As the
and heterogeneous databases that in energy management. However, smart grid expands to include smart
capture data from every clinical new technology advancements, devices in homes, businesses and
encounter”.(75) This may improve combined with access to real-time operations, the amount of data
the efficiency and success of drug data via smart meters and data collected will grow exponentially,
development and research processes, analytics, are enabling a step change making new developments in big
which have been estimated to cost in operational efficiencies, decision data analytics of crucial importance
over $1 billion and take between 10-15 making and load forecasting. to the efficiency and effectiveness
years on average to eventuate.(37) of the grid going forward.
A pioneering example of this is the • Smart meter data combined with
2013 White House sponsored initiative Early indicators: analytics will increasingly enable
on open science, “Champions of invaluable insight into provider
Change”. Open scientific data and • In addition to improving back-office operations and customer usage and
publications from thirteen leading functions via applying new IT service
behaviour. Frost and Sullivan present
people and organisations is being models (such as cloud computing),
the journey of data-driven utilities
used to “accelerate progress and providers are increasingly adopting
in Europe evolving from simple
improve our world”,(76) including an and applying emerging technologies
reporting tools in 2013-15 towards
initiative publishing 400 trillion data to significantly improve operational
advanced analytics and forecasting
points on disease in partnership with efficiencies. This ranges from
by 2020-25.(80) This journey will
a children’s hospital. improvements in maintenance and
enable opportunities in areas such
remote monitoring, to the use of
as cost and process optimisation,
distributed generation and micro
load forecasting, customer insight,
grids (small, self-contained electricity
new pricing models and data-driven
networks), which ease the burden of
decision making. As an example, the
transmission and distribution to remote
US utility company Oklahoma Gas and
Australian communities.(77) With
Electric (OG&E), which services nearly
the expectation that energy storage
800,000 customers, is leveraging
costs will decline by 50% by 2030,(23)
analytics and high performance
providers will also be able to ensure
database technology to forecast
higher levels of network reliability,
energy demand and understand an
whilst at the same time reducing
individual customer’s consumption
costs through deferred or decreased
data in hours instead of days –
infrastructure investment.(78)
processing over 30,000 records per
customer per year (up from 12 records
per customer per year).(81) OG&E has
also experimented with using its
data to offer variable peak pricing
programs and time-of-use programs
that help customers understand
energy saving opportunities.
16 Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implicationsPROVIDER-TO-PROVIDER
• The integration of renewable energy
sources will drive increased data
Government
Integration of data and information sharing among providers, enabling
through the use of smart meters is improved monitoring, forecasting
and reliability. Operations can be
PROVIDER ONLY
set to transform the provider-to-
provider relationship and enable significantly impacted by variability In addition to improving processes
a smarter electricity grid. This will in wind and solar energy output, and allowing greater mobility of
help to increase efficiencies across which is highly dependent on employees, individual government
the grid and allow for greater local weather conditions.(83) With departments and agencies are
control and reliability of electricity Australian wind generation expected digitising operations – eliminating
(particularly in the management to rise from over 2,500MW in 2013 to paper processes, leveraging
of electricity generated by approximately 11,500MW in 2020,(84) cloud services and developing
renewable energy sources). providers (particularly distributors analytics capabilities – to reduce
and generators) will need to share costs and increase flexibility.
a significant amount of data and
information to closely monitor and
Early indicators: control any fluctuations in generation. Early indicators:
• Australia is heading towards a This will include using forecasting
more integrated, efficient, smarter algorithms to combine current • The use of cloud computing in
electricity grid, made up of smart and historic load, with weather Government is on the rise. The US
meters, automated energy control and geographic data to create Federal Government cloud computing
and management systems, and new forecasts.(85) If not managed market alone is expected to reach $10
process and policy change. This will adequately, power issues could result, billion in annual value by 2018.(87) This
help to transform siloed generation, such as voltage spikes, which can is reflective of the implementation
distribution and retail activities impact reliability and safety.(56) of the US Government’s “Cloud First”
into a truly integrated system that is policy, adopted in 2011, with improved
• The combination of smart meter
digital, two-way, self-monitoring and efficiency, agility and innovation
infrastructure and renewable energy
self-healing, adaptive and, among as the major drivers.(88) European
sources across the grid will result
other things, facilitates distributed Governments are also moving to
in unprecedented levels of data
generation and greater customer cloud solutions to boost business and
communication across the grid
choice.(82) In the long term, this achieve cost savings and efficiency
and a significant reliance on data
smart grid may expand to become improvements.(89) Australia has set
communication networks. Using
Australia-wide, encompassing its own goals for transitioning to
the Victorian smart meter example
all current state energy grids.(22) the cloud, releasing the Australian
from earlier, the state would be
However, integration will require Government Cloud Computing
conducting over 42.5 billion meter
greater smart meter penetration, Policy in 2013, stating: The Australian
reads per year (17,000 reads per year
which today is highly dependent on Government will be a leader in the
x 2.5 million smart meters).(79) In
state-based policy and direction. use of cloud services to achieve
the US, the Massachusetts Institute
greater efficiency, generate greater
of Technology (MIT), predicted that
value from ICT investment, deliver
“over the next 20 years, the growth
better services and support a more
in percentage terms of data flowing
flexible workforce.(90)
through grid communications
networks will far exceed the growth
of electricity flowing through the
grid”.(86) They went on to highlight
that future advances such as the use
of renewables and the requirement
for real-time control would depend
on both the data collection and
communications network.
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