Emily Herreras-Griffiths Head of Travel Demand Management (TDM) - ATM
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TFL
Transport for London RESTRICTED
COVID-19: Travel demand trends, greatest impacts and key measures used
Emily Herreras-Griffiths
Head of Travel Demand Management (TDM)
July 2021
1 This document reflects ongoing work and discussions within TfL on options for the future of TfL/LU. It is not intended to reflect or represent any formal TfL/LU views or policy. Its subject matter may relate to issues which would be subject to
consultation. Its contents are confidential and should not be disclosed to any unauthorised persons`
TFL
Demand since RESTRICTED
March 2020
• In March 2020 Lockdown 1
resulted in a massive reduction Christmas and New Year Easter
in demand – up to the start of
June 2020 circa.:
• Tube & Rail >90%
reduction
• Bus >75% reduction
• Road kilometres >20%
reduction
• Since Lockdown 3 (started after
the New Year) there have been
various restriction release steps,
allowing incrementally greater
levels of social contact and
travel Step 1a (schools reopening)
Step 1b (rule of 6 outdoor)
Step 2 (non-essential retail and outdoor hospitality)
• Many people have since begun Step 3 (indoor hospitality)
to cycle and walk more often,
Step 4 (all restrictions lifted from 19 July 2021)
aided by changes to allocate
more space
2
TFL
Daily demand RESTRICTED
during lockdowns
• Travel patterns during
the lockdowns changed
– as well as demand
being lower we saw an
earlier peak, particularly
in the morning (07:00
instead of 08:30)
• The earlier demand was
driven mostly by key
workers or those on
shifts, including those
going to construction
sites
• Maintaining social
distancing was
challenging especially at
peak times in specific
areas of the network
• Despite social distancing
there was plenty of
capacity on our network
most of the time
3
Daily demand after An opportunity to make all journeys more comfortable
lockdown
• Demand is returning to pre-
pandemic patterns with busy
morning and evening week day
peaks but plenty of space the rest
of the time
• Research tells us customers are
concerned about catching
coronavirus when travelling on
busy public transport, which is a
top barrier faced by office-based
businesses to return to offices
• We're doing everything we can to
make our network safe, clean and
reliable
• We can help lessen concerns if
customers stagger their journeys
travelling and at quieter times,
where there is more space and
walk and cycle all or part of their
journey
• The TfL Go app provides the
quieter times to travel for London
Underground (LU) and Rail station
on the TfL network.
4TFL
Key measures used RESTRICTED
With demand dropping to record levels, we took unprecedented action to adapt and meet the
many challenges posed by the fast-changing situation – including managing social distancing
related demand constraints and facilitating the safe return of demand to our network.
The below five points were key to our response and include the opportunities we took to push
the boundaries of demand management, and how they led to a successful management of
London’s transport during the pandemic.
1. Spotlighting the data
Making data the cornerstone of our response, informing almost every element of our
decision-making, from messaging to targeting
2. Redefining our audience
Splitting our audience by sector was central to tackling demand issues with precision
Targeting customers in novel ways helped to equip those most likely to make changes
with the information they needed
3. Leading with digital
Determining which data would be most useful to our customers and finding a way to
present it as an accessible, intuitive and, above all, useful product
4. Focusing on flexibility
Planning for multiple different scenarios in order to remain proactive in the face of a
rapidly changing situation, as well as standing up a 24/7 command structure
Constantly monitoring the network and adapting accordingly, from high tech data
analysis to observers being physically present at hotspots
5. Integrating communications with operations
Working with operations, both TfL and third party, to ensure a holistic response
5TFL
Appendix RESTRICTED
6 This document reflects ongoing work and discussions within TfL on options for the future of TfL/LU. It is not intended to reflect or represent any formal TfL/LU views or policy. Its subject matter may relate to issues which would be subject to
consultation. Its contents are confidential and should not be disclosed to any unauthorised persons`TFL
Case Study 1 RESTRICTED
1: Spotlighting the Data
• Case study: Managing our hotspots
• Predict future hotspots based on
modelling
• A mixture of both quantitative (taps,
modelling) and qualitative (staff
observations, social distancing tracker)
information determines our list of
hotspots across the network
• Hotspots are updated weekly and
featured on a dedicated customer
webpage, as well as informing our
communications
• This mixture of data allows us to target
TDM precisely where it will have most
effect e.g. TDM-focused marketing is
upweighted at hotspot locations in order
to drive behaviour change
7TFL
Case Study 2 RESTRICTED
2: Leading with digital
• Case study: targeted e-mails based on travel patterns
• We’ve also used Oyster data and demographics to target those who have been
travelling at busier times - and those who may be returning to the network
Screenshot sent of email sent to people who had been travelling at busier
times, targeted by anonymised Oyster data – Sep 2020
8TFL
Case study 3 RESTRICTED
3: Redefining our audience
Case study: the construction sector
Through partnership working and simple action orientated travel
advice, working with Build UK, during February we saw:
• 8,360 construction workers in key clusters travelling at quieter
times and having a more pleasant journey
8,360
• A 13 per cent decrease in the number of exits at key
construction related stations from 06:00-10:00 for w/c 22 Feb
13% and 1 Mar compared to the w/c 4 Jan
• Slower growth in interchange demand at hotspot stations
before 07:00 compared to after 07:00
• Improved social distancing on westbound Jubilee Line
services in the early morning between Canning Town and
Westminster
This was achieved within a context of steadily increasing demand
across the network and the return of workers to construction sites
(from shielding and overseas)
9TFL
Case study 4 RESTRICTED
4: Focusing on Flexibility
• Case study: the return of schools
• TfL made unprecedented changes to the bus network to mitigate the capacity challenges
posed by social distancing
• Every other bus on key routes was designated as a School Service at school travel times,
and our bus operations team sourced around 200 extra buses to act as additional School
Services and further boost capacity
• The “every other bus” policy reduced capacity for non-school travellers, so it was essential
to emphasise hotspots and quieter times to minimise background demand. Hotspots are
updated every week
• We worked with stakeholder teams and bus operations to understand where the pinch
points were and where and where there was excess capacity. Extra buses and the “every
other bus” policy were swiftly redistributed as appropriate
• Furthermore, we were able to switch all the interventions
on and off at short notice – e.g., for the sudden
closure of schools in January 2021
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