Emerging Markets Monthly Highlights Another Difficult Year Is Ending, Challenges Remain - S&P Global
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Emerging Markets Credit Research
Jose Perez Gorozpe
Economic Research
Tatiana Lysenko
Monthly Highlights Xu Han Elijah Oliveros
Vincent Conti Vishrut Rana
Valerijs Rezvijs
Another Difficult Year Is Ending, Challenges Remain
Dec 16, 2021
Contents
Key Takeaways
Economic And Credit Conditions
Highlights
Macro-Credit Dashboards
GDP Summary
Monetary Policy/FX
Financing Conditions Highlights
Ratings Summary
This report does not constitute a ratings action
2Key Takeaways
We expect the economic recovery among emerging markets (EM) from the pandemic-induced downturn to continue into
Some sectors continue to operate below capacity, which will keep growth above trend
next year. However, in some countries--notably Brazil--growth will be below trend due to idiosyncratic factors.
EM risks are worsening as inflation keeps accelerating in many key countries, adding to existing challenges. Risk of an
extended period of high inflation and lingering high prices has risen for many EMs. Increasing prices could also prompt a
faster-than-expected normalization of U.S. interest rates, possibly leading to tighter financing conditions and market
its key trade
partners in EMs. A resurgence of COVID-19 cases could hit hard, given that vaccination rates remain low in many EMs.
The new Omicron variant is a stark reminder that the pandemic is far from over. Vaccination pace has accelerated in most
key EMs. However, many countries have not yet reached widespread immunity thresholds (70%-80% of population fully
vaccinated), especially in EM Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Countries with low vaccination levels remain vulnerable to new
contagion waves and variants. The emergence of the Omicron variant has raised the risk of one-off lockdowns and further
containment measures, which could undermine consumption and investment and extend supply chain disruptions.
Financing conditions have tightened. This is mostly due to rising benchmark yields. Overall, funding costs have risen toward
pre-pandemic levels. In EMEA and Latin America, central banks have been working on rate normalization, pushing up
benchmark yields. Central banks in EM Asia are not yet raising rates and spreads narrowed in November after a few months
of significant widening.
3EM Credit Conditions | Risks Worsen Amid Rising Inflation
Top EM Risks Risk Level Risk Trend
Inflation keeps accelerating in many key
EMs, compounding existing challenges. On
the bright side, higher prices are partly
fueled by the strong economic rebound. The
and vaccinations are progressing, but the
recent emergence of the Omicron variant
threatens the positive momentum. Downside
risks for EMs remain significant.
Improvement in credit conditions across
key EMs could be plateauing over the
coming months, as pre-existing weaknesses
and increasing COVID aftershocks, including
and potential for resurging COVID undermine
economic recovery and business conditions.
Source: Credit Conditions Emerging Markets Q1 2022: Inflation The Unwelcome Guest, Dec. 1, 2021. S&P Global Ratings.
4EM GDP Growth | Recovery Isn't Yet Complete
GDP Growth Forecast For Key Change In Baseline Forecast From We expect the economic recovery among EMs
EMs September 2021 from the pandemic-downturn to continue into
2022. Most economies will continue to normalize
2022F 2023F 2022F 2023F activity towards their pre-pandemic levels, which
will mean GDP growth will be above-trend next
year.
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 Brazil is a notable exception; growth will be
IND IND below trend in 2022. We see growth of just 0.8%
CHN CHN in 2022, with risks titled to the downside. This is
COL COL due to aggressive monetary policy tightening in
ARG ARG response to a weakening fiscal picture, which has
CHL CHL contributed to above-target inflation
TUR TUR expectations.
PHL PHL
MEX MEX
The scenario for Turkey in 2022 is also highly
BRL BRL
uncertain. Recent aggressive easing of monetary
POL POL policy has fueled inflation expectations and
IDN IDN added significant depreciatory pressure on the
ZAF ZAF lira. This means that the outlook for the economy
MYS MYS in 2022 is also very uncertain. For now, we are
RUS RUS penciling growth to slow to 3.7% in 2022 from
THA THA 9.8% estimated for 2021.
SAU SAU
F--S&P Global Ratings forecast. For India, 2019 = FY 2019 / 20, 2020 = FY 2020 / 21, 2021 = FY 2021 / 22,
2022 = FY 2022 / 23, 2023 = FY 2023 / 24. Source: Oxford Economics.
5EM Vaccination | Omicron Could Undermine Vaccination Progress
Share Of Population Fully Vaccinated And Time To Vaccinate 75% Of Population
Vaccination pace has further accelerated over
the past months in key EMs, but most are
Share of People Fully Vaccinated % Time to cover 75% of the population at current pace (months) months away inoculating 75% of their
populations. Progress has been notable in EM
Asia. On the other hand, there still many EMs,
90%
60
especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, that are far
80% behind and progressing slowly.
70% 50
Booster shots are only on the agenda of few
60%
40 EMs, which could be concerning if the Omicron
50% variant is severe or if current vaccinations are
40% 30 ineffective against this variant.
30% 20 Reaching a 75% of vaccinated population may
20% not slow infections sufficiently, as we have
10
10% seen in many countries that have reached this
0% 0 threshold. However, evidence shows vaccines
prevent severe illness, which is reducing
hospitalizations and deaths, ultimately
supporting the resumption of more service-
related activities, such as tourism.
Note: EM Median is median of EMs in chart. Current pace is based on daily doses as of Dec. 10, 2021. Source: OWID and S&P Global
Ratings.
6COVID-19 Update| Still High Uncertainty Over Omicron
New Daily COVID-19 Cases Per Million Population*
The Omicron variant is a stark reminder that
Chile Poland Russia South Africa Turkey EM Median
the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over.
transmissibility, severity, and the effectiveness of
900 existing vaccines against it. Early evidence
points toward faster transmissibility, which has
800
led many countries to reimpose social-
700 distancing measures and international travel
600 restrictions. Over coming weeks, we expect
500 additional evidence and testing to show the
extent of the danger Omicron poses, in order to
400
enable us to make a more informed assessment
300 of the risks to credit.
200
The emergence of the Omicron variant shows
100 once again that more coordinated and decisive
0
population to prevent the emergence of new,
more dangerous variants.
*Seven-day moving average. Source: OWID.
7EM Credit Spreads| Corporate Spreads Reverse Direction Across Sub-Regions
EM Spreads By Region
− EM offshore risk premia widened
EM Spreads By Region (level, in bps)
overall, but the sub-regional story
Covid-19 Worst Beg. of 2021 12 Month Average Oct. 29, 2021 Recent
1,000 924
flipped from the overarching trends of
previous months. EM Asia saw spreads
800
641 652 narrowed in November after a few
Spreads
600 518
380
months of significant widening. However,
343 329 346 333 333
400 283 282 310 324
261 280 264 235 216 255 the level remains over 40 bps above that
200 at the end of 2020.
0
C EM Corp EM Corp Asia EM Corp LatAm EM Corp EEMEA
− LatAm and EM EMEA reversed a gradual
Note: bps levels. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research, Refinitiv, ICE Data Indices, and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
trend of spread compression and are
U.S. And EM Spreads
driving up the EM overall credit
spreads in November. This reflects
US and EM Spreads (levels, in bps)
Covid-19 Worst Beg. of 2021 12 Month Average Oct. 29, 2021 Recent monetary normalization and higher
1,500 1308 domestic inflation. Moreover, both
1058
regions have been facing rising risks to
1,000
Spreads
558
679 724 growth, with LatAm also grappling with
520
500 366 430 365 333 371 378 some political uncertainty.
136 122 112 124 162 148 140 151
0
C US IG US HY EM Corp IG EM Corp HY − Both U.S. and EM credit spreads picked
Note: bps levels. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. HY High Yield; IG Investment Grade. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research, Refinitiv, ICE Data Indices, and up in November, especially for
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
speculative-grade spreads.
8Regional Economic Highlights
EM ASIA Economics | Current Accounts Show Room For Normalization
Vishrut Rana, Singapore, +65-6216-1008, vishrut.rana@spglobal.com
One feature of the pandemic-driven
Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines downturn in Asia was that current accounts
12% improved sharply. Lockdowns resulted in a
steep drop in domestic demand, but global
10% demand for goods was in better shape,
leading to unusual current account
8%
strengthening.
6%
% of GDP
4% In several economies, current account
balances are still elevated, reflecting that
2%
0% levels.
-2%
Thailand is an exception, where the sudden
-4%
stop in tourism has led to a swift
-6% deterioration in the current account.
Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21
Sources: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council Thailand, CEIC Data, Bank Indonesia, Department of Statistics
Malaysia, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Reserve Bank of India, and S&P Global Economics.
10EM EMEA Economics | Inflation Continues To Climb
Tatiana Lysenko, Paris, +33-1-4420-6748, tatiana.lysenko@spglobal.com
Valerijs Rezvijs, London, +44-7929-651386, valerijs.rezvijs@spglobal.com
significant inflationary pressures. The broader impact on the
Inflation Rates In EM EMEA economies economic outlook is highly uncertain and depends on the policy
direction.
South Africa Headline South Africa Core The Turkish lira lost more than 30% of its value against dollar since
Russia Headline Russia Core mid-November following front-loaded loosening of monetary policy
Turkey (right-axis) Headline Turkey (right-axis) Core amid high and rising inflation. Annual inflation in Turkey rose to
16 30
21% in November, with food and energy prices posting the largest
14 increases.
25
12 Other EM EMEA central banks continue tightening. Risk of
20 excessive tightening of monetary stance that we mentioned in our
10
recent EM EMEA Economic Outlook is likely to materialize in
8 15 Russia. Inflation reached new multi-year high of 8.4% year-on-year
6
in November, and price pressures remained broad. Meanwhile,
10
4 central bank signalled that it was ready for another large move in
2
5
mid-December, after raising the key rate 75 bps in October to 7.5%.
The South African Reserve Bank started its hiking cycle in
0 0
November, raising it rate 25 bps to 3.75%.
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jul-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jul-21
Nov-19
Oct-20
Nov-20
Oct-21
Nov-21
Jan-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Feb-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-21
Sep-21 has raised the policy rate by 125 bps in two meetings in November
and December to 1.75%. Uncertainties about the domestic and
global inflation outlook and more hawkish stance of the Fed are
going to keep EM EMEA central banks on a tightening bias.
Note: Core inflation for Turkey does not include price increases for gold. Source: DataStream
and S&P Global.
11LatAm Economics | Monetary Policy Is Restrictive Across The Region
Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, New York, +1-212-438-2228, elijah.oliveros@spglobal.com
Difference Between One-Year Real Ex Ante Interest Rate And Neutral Real Interest Rate Above-target inflation expectations will keep
central banks in a hawkish poise in 2022. We
Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico expect sequential inflation to have peaked by Q4
8 2021, but remain relatively high due to several
factors, including the impact of ongoing supply-
chain disruptions, second round effects of higher
6
Tight monetary energy prices, and the pass-through to import
policy stance costs from weaker exchange rates. We expect
4 central banks in the region to continue to tighten
next year, until inflation expectations become
2
more anchored around their targets.
Brazil stands out as having the most restrictive
0
monetary policy stance in the region, and the
risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in
2022 is high. Real rates are currently the highest
-2
Loose monetary
since 2015, during which the economy
policy stance contracted. Unfavorable fiscal dynamics will
-4 keep inflation expectations high throughout
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Aug-11
Nov-11
Aug-12
Nov-12
Aug-13
Nov-13
Aug-14
Nov-14
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-16
Nov-16
Aug-17
Nov-17
Aug-18
Nov-18
Aug-19
Nov-19
Aug-20
Nov-20
Aug-21
Nov-21
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
done with tightening, in our view, following 725
In percentage points. Notes: real ex ante interest rates are based on one-year vanilla interest rate swaps minus one-year ahead inflation bps in hikes this year.
expectations. We assume the following real neutral interest rates: Brazil (3%), Chile (0.5%), Colombia (1.5%), and Mexico (2%) . Source:
Haver Analytics and S&P Global Ratings.
12Macro-Credit Dashboards
GDP Summary | Economic Recovery Continued In Q3 In Most Countries
Latest reading Five-year
Country Period 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
(y/y) avg
Argentina 17.9 Q2 -0.2 -2.0 -9.9 7.5 2.1 2.1
Brazil 4.0 Q3 -0.5 1.4 -4.4 4.8 0.8 2.0
Chile 17.2 Q3 2.0 0.9 -6.0 11.4 2.0 2.8
Colombia 13.2 Q3 2.4 3.3 -6.8 9.2 3.5 3.0
Mexico 4.5 Q3 2.0 -0.2 -8.5 5.8 2.8 2.3
China 4.9 Q3 6.7 6.0 2.3 8.0 4.9 4.9
India 8.4 Q3 6.9 4.0 -7.3 9.5 7.8 6.0
Indonesia 3.5 Q3 5.0 5.0 -2.1 3.3 5.6 4.8
Malaysia -4.5 Q3 4.9 4.4 -5.6 2.6 6.3 5.2
Philippines 7.1 Q3 6.6 6.1 -9.6 5.0 7.4 7.3
Thailand -0.3 Q3 3.4 2.3 -6.1 1.2 3.6 4.2
Poland 5.5 Q3 4.4 4.7 -2.6 5.2 5.0 3.3
Russia 4.3 Q3 1.0 2.0 -3.0 4.2 2.7 2.0
Saudi Arabia 6.8 Q3 1.6 0.3 -4.1 2.3 3.2 2.5
South Africa 2.9 Q3 1.0 0.1 -6.4 4.9 2.4 1.5
Turkey 7.4 Q3 4.2 0.9 1.8 9.8 3.7 3.1
Note: Red means GDP growth is below five-year average (2015-2019). Blue means the opposite. F Forecast. Source: Haver Analytics and S&P Global Ratings.
14Monetary Policy/FX | More Hikes Last Month
Latest November YTD
Policy Latest rate Next
Country Inflation target inflation exchange exchange
rate decision meeting
reading rate chg. rate chg.
Argentina 38.00% No target 52.1% N/A N/A -1.2% -16.6%
Brazil 9.25% 3.75% +/- 1.5% 10.7% 150 bps hike Feb. 3 0.2% -7.6%
Chile 4.00% 3% +/- 1% 6.7% 125 bps hike N/A -1.8% -14.2%
Colombia 2.50% 3% +/- 1% 5.3% 50 bps hike Dec. 17 -4.9% -13.5%
Mexico 5.00% 3% +/- 1% 7.4% 25 bps hike Dec. 17 -4.1% -7.2%
China 2.20% 3% 2.3% N/A N/A 0.7% 2.6%
India 4.00% 4% +/- 2% 4.9% Hold Feb. 9 -0.4% -2.8%
Indonesia 3.50% 3.5% +/- 1% 1.7% Hold N/A -1.1% -1.9%
Malaysia 1.75% No target 2.9% Hold Jan. 20 -1.5% -4.4%
Philippines 2.00% 3% +/- 1% 4.2% Hold N/A 0.1% -4.7%
Thailand 0.50% 1%-3% 2.7% Hold Dec. 22 -1.5% -11.1%
Poland 1.75% 2.5% +/- 1% 7.0% 50 bps hike Jan. 12 -2.9% -9.1%
Russia 7.50% 4.00% 8.4% 75 bps hike Dec. 17 -4.2% 0.5%
Saudi Arabia 1.00% 3% +/- 1% 0.8% Hold N/A 0.0% 0.0%
South Africa 3.75% 3%-6% 5.5% 25 bps hike Jan. 27 -4.1% -7.5%
Turkey 14.00% 5% +/- 2% 21.3%100 bps cut Jan. 20 -28.7% -44.8%
Note: Red means inflation is above the target range, policy is tightening, and exchange rate is weakening. Blue means the opposite. A positive number for the exchange-rate change means
appreciation. Argentina's central bank no longer targets inflation, nor does it set the policy rate directly (it is set based on monetary aggregates targeting). For China, we use the PBOC's seven-day
reverse repo. Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, and S&P Global Ratings.
15Real Effective Exchange Rates | Most Currencies Weakened Last Month
Broad Real Effective Exchange Rates
10.0
Stronger
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
Weaker
-30.0
MXN
MYR
COP
PLN
BRL
CLP
TRY
SAR
PHP
THB
INR
ZAR
ARS
IDR
RUB
CNY
Percent change from 10-year average. Note: Data is computed on 10 years of the monthly average data of the J.P. Morgan Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate Index (PPI-deflated). Data as of Nov. 30,
2021. Source: S&P Global Ratings, Haver Analytics, and J.P. Morgan.
16Real Interest Rates | Monetary Policy Normalization Still Have Ways To Go
Deviation In Current Real Benchmark Interest Rates From 10-Year Average
IDR
Tighter
SAR
CNY
INR
ZAR
MYR
RUB
PHP
THB
Looser
MXN
COP
CLP
TRY
BRL
PLN
-600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100
available data to calculate the average. We exclude Argentina. For China, we
use the seven-day reverse repo rate. Data as of November 30. Source: Haver Analytics and S&P Global Ratings.
17EM Heat Map
Color Coding
Sovereign-- h
Financial Institutions BICRA--The overall assessment of economic risk and industry risk, which ultimately leads to the classification of banking systems int -grade scale. The points range fro
ry 011.
Nonfinancial Corporates-- p °We assess return on capital by using
the median of our rated corporates in their respective countries, then we adjust for inflation, we then rank it based on our bal debt monitor with data as of March 2020.
Source: *-IIF 1Q 2020. t - Source: Bangko Sental NG Pilipinas; Corporate Variables Capital IQ 1Q 2020. S&P Global Ratings. 19Financing Conditions Highlights
Financing Conditions | EM (ex. Greater China) Corporate Debt Growth Remains Steady
Emerging Markets (ex. China) Greater China
50%
45% 44% − EM (excluding Greater China)
debt growth is still on track
40% with the growth rate of
34% outstanding bond debt of the
35%
past few years.
31% 30%
30% 28%
27%
−
25%
increased in 2020 marginally
20% over the 2019 pace. The 2021
16% 16% 15%
YTD growth rate is on course to
15%
15% 13% 13% dip back to pre-COVID pace.
10%
5%
0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021YTD
Corporate debt growth computed as total cumulative corporate (financial and non-financial bond issuance divided by bond debt outstanding from beginning
of the year). Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Source: Refinitiv and S&P Global Ratings.
21EM Yields | Most Benchmark Yields Stable, But With Key Exceptions
Change In Local Currency 10-Year Bond Yields Since The End Of 2020
− As of the end of November, most
1,000
Nov Oct EM benchmark yields relatively
776
800 693 stabilized, with some key
600 541 exceptions. Of note, Brazil and Chile
437
saw yields drop over the month, as
(bps)
361
400 322
253 230 264 233
193 197 205 markets reassessed rate hike
142 144 159
200
59 66 37 17
87 95 50 52 expectations amid slower growth.
0
-24 -17
(200)
− Turkey saw a further sharp rise in
Turkeyat theBrazil
Note: Data pulled end of Nov.Russia Colombia
2021. Chile data is as Mexico ChileSource:
of Nov. 30, 2021. Thailand Indonesia
S&P Global South and
Ratings Research Malaysia Poland
Bloomberg. India China
C Africa yields amid worse inflation
expectations, as authorities
Change In Dollar-Denominated 10-Year Bond Yields Since The End Of 2020 continue to prefer easing rates.
Russia, Poland, and Colombia saw
250
205 Nov Oct 20-50 bps increases in yields.
200 169
145 143
150
(bps)
100 63
− Where available, 10-year yields for
51
50 34 44
28 37 dollar-denominated bonds were
0 lower than last month, except for
Turkey Brazil Philippines Mexico Indonesia Turkey.
C
Note: Data pulled at the end of November 2021. The selection of country/economy is subject to data availability. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and Bloomberg.
22EM Corporate Issuance | By Market
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD − EM (excluding Greater China) issuance is
still on pace to match the one in 2020, it
but has decelerated.
140
124 123
118 118 120 − EM Asian issuances remained strong and
120 115
112 have surpassed the 2020 levels. But
(US$ Bil.)
106
99 101 activity has been largely limited to
100 investment-grade or state-owned
companies after spreads began rising in
80 September. LatAm and EMEA had lower
70 71
issuances than last year.
60
− EMs have continued to generally take
40 recent global monetary policy
developments in stride. Nonetheless, we
20 continue to watch the potential impacts
of the upcoming normalization of global
rates on both domestic and external
C 0
Domestic Foreign financing costs.
Excluding Greater China. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021, and full year data for 2016-2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and Refinitiv.
23EM | Financial And Non-Financial Corporate Issuance
EM Cumulative Corporate Bond Issuances EM Regional Bond Issuances
EMEA (LHS) Emerging Asia (ex. GC) (LHS) Latin America (LHS) Greater China (RHS)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
300
120 1800
250 1600
100
1400
(US$ Bil.)
200
(US$ Bil.)
(US$ Bil.)
80 1200
150 1000
60
800
100
40 600
50 400
20
200
0
0 0
C C 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
Excluding Greater China. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Data includes not rated and both financial and non- Data as of Nov. 30, 2021, and full year data for 2006-2020, for both financial and non-financial entities.
financial entities. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and Refinitiv. Left Hand Side (LHS), Right Hand Side (RHS). Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and Refinitiv.
24Issuance | Sovereign Top Deals By Debt Amount In The Past 90 Days
S&P
S&P issue sovereign
Issue date Issuer Economy Market place rating rating Security description Currency Issuance ($ mil.)
13-Sep-21 Turkey Turkey U.S. public BB B+ 6.500% global notes due '33 USD 1,500
14-Sep-21 Chile Chile U.S. public A A 0.555% global notes due '29 EUR 1,083
14-Sep-21 Chile Chile U.S. public A A 3.250% global notes due '71 USD 959
13-Sep-21 Indonesia Indonesia U.S. public BBB BBB 3.200% global notes due '61 USD 639
13-Sep-21 Indonesia Indonesia U.S. public BBB BBB 1.300% global notes due '34 EUR 587
3.200% sr med term nts due
13-Oct-21 Poland Poland Foreign public A- A- '24 CNY 467
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021 (last 90 days); includes local/foreign currencies; EM excludes China. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings
Research.
25Issuance | EM Sovereign Debt
2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD (US$ Bil.)
250
20
18
200
16
14
(US$ Bil.)
150
12
10
100
8
6
4 50
2
0 0
C
C
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021; includes local/foreign currencies. China includes mainland China and Hong Kong. Source: Refinitiv and Dealogic.
26Issuance | EM Financial And Non-Financial Top 20 Deals For The
Past 90 Days
Maturity Market S&P issue
Issue date Issuer Economy Sector Security description Currency Issuance ($ Mil.)
date place rating
3.404% gtd mdm-trm nts
22-Apr-21 28-Apr-61 Petronas Capital Ltd. Malaysia Financial institution U.S. private A- due '61 US 1,750
27-Oct-21 2-Nov-31 Ecopetrol S.A. Colombia Integrated oil and gas U.S. public BB+ 4.625% global nts due '31 US 1,250
2.480% gtd mdm-trm nts
22-Apr-21 28-Jan-32 Petronas Capital Ltd. Malaysia Financial institution U.S. private A- due '32 US 1,250
PT Indofood CBP Sukses 3.398% sr unsec nts due
2-Jun-21 9-Jun-31 Makmur Indonesia Consumer products Euro public NR '31 US 1,150
7.970% fxd/straight bd due
5-May-21 29-Apr-26 Vnesheconombank Russia Banks Euro private NR '26 RR 1,071
3.882% gtd sr unsec nt due
12-Apr-21 19-Apr-31 GENM Capital Labuan Ltd. Malaysia Insurance U.S. private BBB '31 US 1,000
15-Sep-21 23-Sep-36 Bangkok Bank PCL Thailand Banks U.S. private NR Mdm-trm sub nts due '36 US 1,000
1.400% mdm-trm nts due
3-Feb-21 9-Feb-26 PT Pertamina (Persero) Indonesia Integrated oil and gas U.S. private NR '26 US 1,000
4.125% gtd global nts due
26-Apr-21 3-May-28 Natura Cosmeticos S.A. Brazil Consumer products U.S. private BB '28 US 1,000
2.250% mdm-trm nts due
4-Jan-21 13-Jan-31 Export-Import Bank of India India Banks U.S. private BBB- '31 US 990
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021 (last 90 days); excludes sovereign issuances and China. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Table is for foreign currency only
without perpetual. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
27Issuance | EM Financial And Non-Financial Top 20 Deals For The
Maturity S&P issue Issuance ($
Issue date date Issuer Economy Sector Market place rating Security description Currency Mil.)
3-Feb-21 9-Feb-31 PT Pertamina (Persero) Indonesia Integrated oil and gas U.S. private NR 2.300% mdm-trm nts due '31 US 900
27-Jul-21 30-Jul-26 Oi Movel S.A. - In Judicial Brazil Telecommunications Euro public B 8.750% gtd sec nts due '26 US 880
18-Mar-21 9-Mar-28 Veresaeva 6 Llc Russia Finance company Euro private NR Float rate nts due '28 RR 877
3-Feb-21 26-Jan-28 Veresaeva 6 Llc Russia Finance company Euro private NR Float rate nts due '28 RR 857
22-Apr-21 28-May-28 Fomento Econo Mexicano Mexico Consumer products U.S. public A- Global bonds due '28 EUR 838
Malaysia Wakala Sukuk 2.070% Islamic finance due
21-Apr-21 28-Apr-31 Bhd Malaysia Finance company U.S. private A- '31 US 800
1-Sep-21 8-Sep-24 Adani Green Energy Ltd. India Utility U.S. private NR 4.375% sr sec nts due '24 US 750
3-Feb-21 10-Feb-31 Indian Railway Fin Corp Ltd. India Broker U.S. private BBB- 2.800% mdm-trm nts due '31 US 750
17-Feb-21 24-Feb-26 Ozon Holdings PLC Russia Retail/restaurants Euro public NR 1.875% conv. bds due '26 US 750
27-Oct-21 2-Nov-51 Ecopetrol S.A. Colombia Integrated oil and gas U.S. public BB+ 5.875% global nts due '51 US 750
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021 (last 90 days); excludes sovereign issuances and China. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Table is for foreign currency only
without perpetual. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
28Maturing Debt | EM Financial And Non-Financial
Deals Coming Due In December 2021 And January 2022
Issue Maturity Market S&P issue
date date Issuer Economy Sector place rating Security description Currency Issuance ($ Mil.)
Tanner Servicios Foreign
5-Mar-19 3-Dec-21 Financieros Chile Broker public BBB- 1.000% sen nts due '21 SFR 125
4.750% sr unsec nts due
1-Dec-11 6-Dec-21 ENAP Chile Integrated oil and gas EURO/144A BBB- '21 US 492
Pacific Rubiales Energy 7.250% sr ensec nts due
5-Dec-11 12-Dec-21 Corp. Colombia Integrated oil and gas EURO/144A BB '21 US 300
9-Dec-14 12-Dec-21 Liberty Group Ltd. South Africa Broker Euro public NR Mdm-trm sub nts due '21 SAR 44
Foreign 2.375% gtd mdm-trm nts
18-May-16 14-Dec-21 Petroleos Mexicanos Mexico Integrated oil and gas public BBB+ due '21 SFR 153
11.500% sen amort nt due
9-Jun-16 14-Dec-21 Edesa S.A. Argentina Utility Euro public NR '21 US 64
Foreign 0.678% fxd/straight bd due
13-Dec-16 16-Dec-21 ICICI Bank Ltd. India Banks private BBB- '21 Y 87
Itau Unibanco Holding 6.200% mdm-trm sub nts
14-Jun-11 21-Dec-21 S.A. Brazil Banks EURO/144A NR due '21 US 249
Itau Unibanco Holding 6.200% mdm-trm sub nts
14-Jun-11 21-Dec-21 S.A. Brazil Banks EURO/144A NR due '21 US 249
Itau Unibanco Holding 6.200% sub global nt due
17-Jan-12 21-Dec-21 S.A. Brazil Banks U.S. private NR '21 US 558
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021; excludes sovereign issuances. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Table does not include China deals and for foreign currency only
without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
29Maturing Debt | EM Financial And Non-Financial
S&P issue Security
Issue date Maturity date Issuer Economy Sector Market place rating description Currency Issuance ($ Mil.)
Float rate nts due
28-Dec-16 28-Dec-21 Ghelamco Invest Poland Broker Euro public NR '21 PZ 27
Forest products
and building 4.750% sr unsec
4-Jan-12 11-Jan-22 Arauco Chile materials EURO/144A BBB nts due '22 US 493
Forest products
Cemex S.A.B. de and building 4.750% gtd bds
5-Sep-14 11-Jan-22 C.V. Mexico materials EURO/144A B due '22 EUR 518
Adani Ports & SE 3.950% sr unsec
11-Jan-17 19-Jan-22 Zone Ltd. India Transportation EURO/144A BBB- nts due '22 US 499
8.750% sen nts
12-Jan-17 20-Jan-22 Genneia S.A. Argentina Utility EURO/144A B+ due '22 US 350
8.750% sen nts
23-Jan-18 20-Jan-22 Genneia S.A. Argentina Utility EURO/144A B+ due '22 US 164
Santander
Consumer Bank 0.875% mdm-trm
10-Jan-19 21-Jan-22 SA.. Poland Banks Euro public NR nts due '22 EUR 574
Petroleos Integrated oil and 4.875% gtd mdm-
17-Jan-12 24-Jan-22 Mexicanos Mexico gas EURO/144A BBB trm nts due '22 US 2,083
Bharat Petroleum Integrated oil and 4.375% mdm-trm
17-Jan-19 24-Jan-22 Corp. Ltd. India gas Euro public NR nts due '22 US 499
Grupo Bimbo Consumer 4.500% gtd bds
18-Jan-12 25-Jan-22 S.A.B. de C.V. Mexico products EURO/144A NR due '22 US 794
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021; excludes sovereign. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Table does not include China deals and
for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
30Maturing Debt | EM Financial And Non-Financial
S&P issue Security
Issue date Maturity date Issuer Economy Sector Market place rating description Currency Issuance ($ Mil.)
Forest products
Green River and building Zero cpn cvt zero
19-Jan-17 25-Jan-22 Holding Co Ltd. Thailand materials Euro public NR bonds due '22 US 43
2.750%
Firstrand Bank fxd/straight bd
5-Nov-14 31-Jan-22 Ltd. South Africa Banks Euro public NR due '22 SAR 9
6.750%
Metals, mining fxd/straight bd
9-Jun-16 31-Jan-22 EVRAZ GROUP Russia and steel Euro public B+ due '22 US 500
Forest products
and building 8.20% gtd bds
23-Jan-17 31-Jan-22 Tecnoglass Inc. Colombia materials EURO/144A BB- due '22 US 207
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021; excludes sovereign. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Table does not include China deals and
for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
31Ratings Summary
Ratings Summary | Sovereigns
Economy Rating Outlook 5 Year CDS Spread Median Rating Financials Median Rating Non - Financials
Argentina CCC+ Stable 2367 CCC+
Brazil BB- Stable 221 BB-
Chile A Stable 86 BBB
China A+ Stable 45 A BBB+
Colombia BB+ Stable 207 BB+
India BBB- Stable 93 BBB-
Indonesia BBB Negative 78 B+
Malaysia A- Negative 50 BBB+
Mexico BBB Negative 101 BB+ BBB-
Philippines BBB+ Stable 60 BBB+
Poland A- Stable 51 A- BB
Russia BBB- Stable 108 BB BB+
Saudi Arabia A- Stable 53 BBB BBB+
South Africa BB- Stable 215 BB-
Thailand BBB+ Stable 29 A- BBB+
Turkey B+ Negative 520 B+
Note: Foreign currency ratings. Red means speculative-grade rating, and blue means investment-grade rating. Data and CDS spread are as of Dec. 14, 2021. China median rating includes China, Hong Kong, Macau,
Taiwan, and Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Capital IQ.
33Rating Actions | Top 15 By Debt Amount In The Past 90 Days
Debt amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From Action type ($ Mil.)
20-Oct-21 Tata Motors Ltd. (Tata Sons Pte. Ltd.) India Automotive BB- B Upgrade 7,647
13-Oct-21 Concern Rossium LLC Russia Bank B+ B Upgrade 4,873
Chemicals, packaging and
2-Sep-21 Braskem S.A. (Odebrecht S.A.) Brazil environmental services BBB- BB+ Upgrade 3,250
20-Oct-21 Tata Steel Ltd. (Tata Sons Pte. Ltd.) India Metals, mining and steel BBB- BB Upgrade 2,300
Chemicals, packaging and
30-Sep-21 Braskem Idesa, S.A.P.I. and subsidiary Mexico environmental services B+ B Upgrade 900
21-Sep-21 Holding Co. Metalloinvest JSC Russia Metals, mining and steel BBB- BB+ Upgrade 800
Oil and gas exploration and
7-Oct-21 Compania General de Combustibles S.A. Argentina production CCC+ CCC Upgrade 585
Oil and gas exploration and
12-Nov-21 Serba Dinamik Holdings Berhad Malaysia production CC CCC Downgrade 500
10-Nov-21 Guacolda Energia S.A. Chile Utility B B+ Downgrade 500
23-Sep-21 Ratch Group Public Co. Ltd. Thailand Utility BBB BBB+ Downgrade 437
29-Oct-21 Controladora Mabe, S.A. de C.V. Mexico Consumer products BBB BBB- Upgrade 370
25-Oct-21 Manappuram Finance Ltd. India Finance company BB- B+ Upgrade 300
13-Oct-21 Gazprombank JSC Russia Bank BBB- BB+ Upgrade 139
28-Sep-21 PT Profesional Telekomunikasi Indonesia Indonesia Telecommunications BBB- BBB Downgrade 133
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021, excludes sovereigns, Greater China and the Red Chip companies and includes only latest rating changes. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
34EM | Total Rating Actions
By Economy
Positive Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions Upgrade Downgrade Negative Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions
60
40
Number Of Issuers
20
0
(20)
(40)
(60)
C
Note: Data includes sovereigns. Data from Feb. 3, 2020, to Nov. 19, 2021. Greater China includes mainland China, Taiwan, Macao and Hong Kong. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
35EM | Rating Actions
By Economy
CreditWatch Negative Downgrade Negative Outlook Change
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Greater China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Mexico
Philippines
Poland
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Thailand
Turkey
C
Number Of Issuers
Note: Data includes sovereigns. Data from Feb. 3, 2020, to Nov. 19, 2021. Greater China includes mainland China, Taiwan, Macao and Hong Kong. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
36EM | Total Rating Actions
By Sector
40 Positive Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions Upgrade Downgrade Negative Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions
30
20
10
Number Of Issuers
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)
Aerospace and Banks Business and Chemicals Energy Homebuilders Insurance Metals and Real Estate Sovereign Telecom Transportation
C defense consumer and Mining infra
services developers
Note: Data includes sovereigns. Data from Feb. 3, 2020, to Nov. 19, 2021. Greater China includes mainland China, Taiwan, Macao and Hong Kong. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
37EM | Total Rating Actions
By Sector
Investment Grade Speculative Grade
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Aerospace and defense
Automotive
Banks
Building materials
Business and consumer services
Capital Goods
Chemicals
Consumer products
Energy
Health care
Homebuilders and developers
Hotels and gaming
Insurance
Media and Entertainment
Metals and Mining
NBFI
Real Estate
Retailing
Sovereign
Technology
Telecom
Transportation
Transportation infra
Utilities
C
Number Of Issuers
Note: Data includes sovereigns. Data from Feb. 3, 2020, to Nov. 19, 2021. Greater China includes mainland China, Taiwan, Macao and Hong Kong. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
38EM | Total Rating Actions
− The rating actions slightly
Negative Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions Downgrade Upgrade Positive Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions
decreased compared with the
40 previous month. For November
2021, we saw four downgrades,
20 four CreditWatch listings/outlook
revisions to negative, four
0
upgrades, and two CreditWatch
listings/outlook revisions to
Number Of Issuers
-20
positive in EMs.
-40
-60 − The largest number of
downgrades were in May 2020
-80 (34).
-100
− The most CreditWatch
-120 listings/outlook revisions to
Oct
Oct
March
April
March
July
April
July
Nov
Jan
Nov
May
May
June
June
Aug
Sept
Feb
Dec
Aug
Sept
Feb negative occurred in April 2020
(94).
2020 2021
Data includes sovereigns. Data from Feb. 3, 2020, to Nov. 19, 2021. EMs consist of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Thailand, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
39EM Downgrade Potential | By Bias
The Number Of Sectors With Above-Average Downgrade Potential Remained Steady In November
Count of EM 16 Corporate Sectors With Above-Average Downgrade Potential (RHS)
EM 16 Corporate Negative Bias (LHS)
12-month trailing average EM 16 Corporate Negative Bias (LHS) (count)
(%)
0.6 18
16
0.5
14
0.4 12
10
0.3
8
0.2 6
4
0.1
2
0 0
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Negative bias is the percentage of ratings with negative outlooks or that are on CreditWatch with negative implications. Count of Corporate Sectors With Above-Average Downgrade Potential shows
the number of sectors with a negative bias that is above the long-term negative bias for that sector. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
40Downgrade Potential | Regional Negative Bias
− EM Asia (excluding China). The November
EM Downgrade Potential Differentiated Across Region 2021 downgrade potential was 29%, up
10-Year Average 5-Year Average 11/30/2021
from October 2021 (27%), and much higher
than both five- and 10-year historical
averages.
35%
30%
29% − EEMEA. The November downgrade
potential (6%) increased from 5% in
25%
24% October but remains the lowest among
20% other EM regions.
19%
18%
16% 16%
14%
− LatAm. The November downgrade
potential (25%) was below its five-year
6% average (35%) and its 10-year average
(30%).
C
EM Asia (ex. China) EEMEA Latin America Greater China − Greater China. The November downgrade
potential (14%) increased when compared
with last month (10%) but remains below
both of its historical averages.
ata as of Nov. 30, 2021, and excludes sovereigns. Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. EM Asia: India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Thailand, and the Philippines. EEMEA: Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey. Greater China: China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and Red
Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
41EM Downgrade Potential | By Sector
The Homebuilders/Real Estate Companies, Retail And Restaurants Lead The November Downgrade Potential
Current Negative Bias (Nov. 30, 2021) 5-Year Averages
Automotive (10)
CP&ES (15)
Capital goods (13)
Sector (Number of Issuers)
Consumer products (33)
Financial institutions (146)
Forest (9)
Health care (5)
High technology (13)
Home/RE (54)
Insurance (21)
Media/entert (5)
Metals/mining/steel (33)
Oil & Gas (22)
Retail (11)
Telecommunications (23)
Transportation (14)
Utilities (67)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Negative Bias
ata as of Nov. 30, 2021, and includes sectors with more than five issuers only; excludes sovereigns. EMs consist of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines,
Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey. Greater China--China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and Red Chip companies. Media/entert--Media and entertainment, Retail--Retail/restaurants, CP&ES--Chemicals,
packaging, and environmental services, Home/RE--Homebuilders/real estate companies, Forest--Forest products and building materials. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
42By Sector
Neg/Negative Stable Pos/Positive
16000
14000
12000
Debt (US$Mn)
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Utilities Oil and gas Telecommunications Capital goods Home/RE Consumer products CP&ES Financial institutions Media/entert Automotive
Based on local currency ratings. CP&ES--Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services, Metals/mining/steel--Metals, mining and steel, Retail--Retail/restaurants, Media/entert--Media and entertainment, Home/RE--Homebuilders/real
estate co., and Forest--Forest products and building materials. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
43Rating Actions | -
Debt amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From (mil.)
Oil and gas exploration and
8-May-20 YPF S.A Argentina production CCC+ B- 1,969
18-Jun-20 Oi S.A. Brazil Telecommunications CC B- 1,654
8-May-20 Pampa Energia S.A. Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 1,550
27-Apr-20 CAR Inc. Cayman Islands Transportation CCC B- 557
30-Apr-20 PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk. Indonesia Homebuilders/real estate CCC+ B- 545
8-May-20 Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS) (Compania De Inversiones de Energia S.A.) Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 500
8-Apr-20 GCL New Energy Holdings Ltd. (GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd.) Bermuda Utilities CCC B- 500
17-Mar-20 IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. (Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A.) Argentina Homebuilders/real estate CCC+ B- 431
8-May-20 Telecom Argentina S.A. Argentina Telecommunications CCC+ B- 400
29-Apr-20 Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 S.A. Argentina Utilities CC B- 400
19-Jun-20 PT Modernland Realty Tbk. Indonesia Homebuilders/real estate CCC B- 390
16-Mar-20 Banco Hipotecario S.A. Argentina Bank CCC B- 350
6-Apr-20 Grupo Kaltex, S.A. de C.V. Mexico Consumer products CCC B- 320
13-Jan-20 Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A. Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 300
Oil and gas exploration and
8-May-20 Compania General de Combustibles S.A. Argentina production CCC+ B- 300
8-May-20 CAPEX S.A. Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 300
8-May-20 AES Argentina Generacion S.A (AES Corp. (The)) Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 300
9-Apr-20 PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk. Indonesia Automotive CCC+ B- 250
8-May-20 Banco De Galicia Y Buenos Aires S.A.U. Argentina Bank CCC+ B- 250
19-Mar-20 PT MNC Investama Tbk. Indonesia Media and entertainment CCC B- 231
8-Apr-20 Pearl Holding III Ltd. China Automotive CCC+ B- 175
13-Apr-20 Compania de Transporte de Energia Electrica en Alta Tension TRANSENER S.A. Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 99
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Dec. 31, 2020; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
44Rating Actions | -
-
Debt
amount ($
Rating Date Issuer Economy Sector To From Mil.)
22-Apr-21 Alpha Holding S.A. de C.V. Mexico Financial institutions CCC B- 300
Homebuilders/real estate
18-Jun-21 Sichuan Languang Development Co., Ltd. China company CCC- B- 750
Homebuilders/real estate
5-Aug-21 China Evergrande Group Cayman Islands company CCC B- 16,260
Oil and gas exploration and
18-Aug-21 Serba Dinamik Holdings Berhad Malaysia production CCC B- 500
Homebuilders/real estate
22-Sep-21 Xinyuan Real Estate Co. Ltd. Cayman Islands company CCC B- 300
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
45Rating Actions | EM Fallen Angels In 2020 And 2021 YTD
Debt
amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From ($ Mil.)
15-Jun-20 Embraer S.A. Brazil Aerospace and defense BB+ BBB- 500
26-Jun-20 Axis Bank Ltd. India Bank BB+ BBB- 1,095
8-Jul-20 Braskem S.A. (Odebrecht S.A.) Brazil Chemicals, packaging and environmental services BB+ BBB- 4,150
14-Jul-20 Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd. China Metals, mining and steel BB+ BBB- 350
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Dec. 31, 2020; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global
Ratings Research.
Six EM fallen angels so far in 2021 including one sovereign.
Debt
amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From (Mil.)
25-Mar-21 Empresa Nacional del Petroleo Chile Utilities BB+ BBB- 2,480
19-May-21 Republic of Colombia Colombia Sovereign BB+ BBB- 30,184
20-May-21 Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana S.A. Colombia Diversified BB+ BBB- 550
20-May-21 Financiera de Desarrollo Territorial S.A. FINDETER Colombia Bank BB+ BBB- 500
20-May-21 Ecopetrol S.A. Colombia Integrated Oil & Gas BB+ BBB- 9,850
Cayman
09-Nov-21 Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. Islands Homebuilders/Real Estate Co. BB+ BBB- 1,000
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global
Ratings Research.
46Rating Actions | EM Rising Stars In 2020 And 2021 YTD
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From Debt amount ($ Mil.)
Mobile TeleSystems PJSC (Sistema
17-Sep-20 (PJSFC)) Russia Telecommunications BBB- BB+ 1,000
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Dec. 31, 2020; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global
Ratings Research.
Seven EM rising stars so far in 2021.
Debt
amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From ($ Mil.)
12-Apr-21 Sovcomflot PAO Russia Transportation BBB- BB+ 750
8-Apr-21 Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. Cayman Islands Homebuilders/real estate company BBB- BB+ 2,100
18-Mar-21 Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua S.A.B. de C.V. Mexico Forest products and building materials BBB- BB+ 260
Chemicals, packaging and environmental
2-Sep-21 Braskem S.A. (Odebrecht S.A.) Brazil services BBB- BB+ 3,250
21-Sep-21 Holding Co. Metalloinvest JSC Russia Metals, mining and steel BBB- BB+ 800
13-Oct-21 Gazprombank JSC Russia Banks BBB- BB+ 139
20-Oct-21 Tata Steel Ltd. (Tata Sons Pte. Ltd.) India Metals, mining and steel BBB- BB 2,300
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Nov 30, 2021; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global
Ratings Research.
47Rating Actions | List Of Defaulters In 2020 And 2021 YTD
Debt amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From Action type ($ Mil.)
14-Jan-20 Qinghai Provincial Investment Group Co. Ltd. China Metals, mining and steel D CCC- Downgrade 850
21-Jan-20 Panda Green Energy Group Ltd. Bermuda Utilities SD CC Downgrade 350
21-Jan-20 Republic of Argentina Argentina Sovereign SD CCC- Downgrade 137,602
21-Feb-20 Tunghsu Group Co. Ltd. China High technology SD CCC- Downgrade 390
Cayman Homebuilders/real
27-Mar-20 Yida China Holdings Ltd. Islands estate SD CC Downgrade 300
7-Apr-20 Republic of Argentina Argentina Sovereign SD CCC- Downgrade 139,092
10-Apr-20 Vestel Elektronik Sanayi Ve Ticaret A.S. Turkey High technology SD CCC+ Downgrade -
Media and
24-Apr-20 Enjoy S.A. Chile entertainment D B- Downgrade 300
11-May-20 Yihua Enterprise (Group) Co. Ltd. China Consumer products SD CCC Downgrade -
19-May-20 Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 S.A. Argentina Utilities SD CC Downgrade 750
27-May-20 Latam Airlines Group S.A. Chile Transportation D CCC- Downgrade 1,800
2-Jun-20 Grupo Famsa, S.A.B. de C.V. Mexico Retail/restaurants SD CCC- Downgrade 81
1-Jul-20 Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Mexico Transportation D B- Downgrade 400
Media and
1-Jul-20 Grupo Posadas, S. A. B. de C. V. Mexico entertainment D CC Downgrade 400
Homebuilders/real
8-Jul-20 PT Modernland Realty Tbk. Indonesia estate SD CCC- Downgrade 390
9-Oct-20 Oi S.A. Brazil Telecommunications SD CC Downgrade 1,654
Data is by end of year for 2020, and as of Nov. 30 for 2021. Includes both rated and zero debt defaults. Includes sovereigns, Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Excludes five confidential issuers in 2020 and six in
2021 YTD. D Default; SD Selective Default. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.
48Rating Actions |
Debt amount ($
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From Action type Mil.)
14-Oct-20 Banco Hipotecario S.A. Argentina Bank SD CC Downgrade 350
Corp Group Banking S.A. (Inversiones CorpGroup
16-Oct-20 Interhold, Ltda.) Chile Financial institutions D CC Downgrade 500
Homebuilders/real estate
28-Oct-20 PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk. Indonesia company D CC Downgrade 545
IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. (Cresud Homebuilders/real estate
12-Nov-20 S.A.C.I.F. y A.) Argentina company SD CC Downgrade 360
Oil and gas exploration and
26-Feb-21 YPF S.A. Argentina production SD CC Downgrade 2,900
Cayman Homebuilders/real estate
2-Mar-21 Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd.(A) Islands companies SD CCC- Downgrade -
13-Apr-21 YPF Energia Electrica S.A. (YPF S.A.) Argentina Utilities SD CCC- Downgrade 400
27-Apr-21 Maxcom Telecomunicaciones, S.A.B. de C.V. Mexico Telecommunications D CCC- Downgrade 57
28-Apr-21 Future Retail Ltd. India Retail/restaurants SD CCC- Downgrade 500
Homebuilders/real estate
13-Jul-21 Sichuan Languang Development Co. Ltd. China companies D CCC- Downgrade -
20-Jul-21 Alpha Holding S.A. de C.V. Mexico Financial institutions D CC Downgrade 300
Data is by end of year for 2020, and as of Nov. 30 for 2021. Includes both rated and zero debt defaults. Includes sovereigns, Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Excludes five confidential issuers in 2020 and six in
2021 YTD. D Default; SD Selective Default. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.
49Rating Actions |
Debt amount ($
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From Action type Mil.)
Cayman Homebuilders/real estate
11-Aug-21 Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. (B) Islands companies SD CCC- Downgrade -
CLISA-Compania Latinoamericana de Infraestructura &
13-Aug-21 Servicios S.A. Argentina Capital goods SD CC Downgrade 905
Cayman Homebuilders/real estate
5-Oct-21 Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd. Islands company SD CCC Downgrade 1,950
Cayman Homebuilders/real estate
19-Oct-21 Sinic Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. Islands company SD CC Downgrade -
Investimentos e Participacoes em Infraestrutura S.A. -
11-Nov-21 Invepar Brazil Utilities D CC Downgrade -
Data is by end of year for 2020, and as of Nov. 30 for 2021. Includes both rated and zero debt defaults. Includes sovereigns, Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Excludes five confidential issuers in 2020 and six in
2021 YTD. D Default; SD Selective Default. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.
50Rating Actions | Fallen Angels And Potential Fallen Angels
Six EM Fallen Angels In 2021 YTD − Six EM fallen angels. Through November
Fallen Angels Average Potential Fallen Angels 2021, one Cayman Islands-based Shimao
35 Group Holdings Ltd, one Chile based
30 Empresa Nacional del Petroleo, and four
25
Colombia-based entities, including the
Issuers
20
15
sovereign, were the fallen angels in EMs.
10
5
0 − Among the current EM potential fallen
C 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 angels (PFAs), there were none on
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Parent only. Include Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
CreditWatch, indicating lower immediate
downgrade risk, as PFAs with negative
outlooks typically have a one-in-three
EM PFAs By Economy chance of a downgrade within two years
Nov. 30, 2021 PFAs Nov. 30, 2020 PFAs
of receiving the negative outlook.
8
PFA Count of Issuers
6 − The count of global PFAs is stable. Media
4
and entertainment, and financial
institutions continued to lead the count of
2 potential fallen angels. For more
'BBB' Pulse: The Future
0
C Brazil Chile Greater China Colombia India Indonesia Looks Bright As Potential Rising Stars
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Include Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
Shoot Up
51Rating Actions | Rising Stars And Potential Rising Stars
Seven EM Rising Stars So Far In 2021
Rising Stars Average Potential Rising Stars − Seven EM rising stars. Through
16
November 2021, there were three from
14
12 Russia, and one each rising star from
Issuers
10 Brazil, the Cayman Islands, Mexico,
8
6
and India.
4
2
0 − Among the current EM potential rising
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
C starts (PRS), there were none on
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Parent only. Include Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research. CreditWatch positive.
EM PRS By Economy − The number of global PRS increased.
Nov. 30, 2021 PRSs Nov. 30, 2020 PRSs Of the PRS (issuers rated 'BB+' with
4 positive outlooks or ratings on
PRS Count of Issuers
3
CreditWatch with positive
implications), American utilities lead
2
among the sectors. For more
1 'BBB' Pulse: The
0 Future Looks Bright As Potential Rising
Brazil Mexico South Africa Russia Greater China
C Stars Shoot Up
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Include Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research. 2021.
52Rating Actions | Weakest Links And Defaults
EM Weakest Links Reached Record Highs In 2020
Weakest Links Count (left scale) Weakest Link Share of Speculative-Grade Population (%) (right scale)
35 18% − Weakest links. EMs saw 10
30 16% issuers on the weakest links list
14%
Number of Issuers
25
12% (5% of total speculative-grade
20 10% issuers), reflecting default
15 8%
10
6% prospects for the weakest issuers.
4%
5 2%
0 0% − Default rates. The 12 month-
Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21
trailing speculative-grade default
Data as of Nov. 30, 2021 (OLCW). Parent only. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research .
rates decreased in October across
EM (see chart). EEMEA default
12 Month-Trailing Speculative-Grade Default Rates Fell Across The Region rate remained at 0%.
8
EM Asia (ex. China) EEMEA Latin America Emerging Markets (ex. China) − For more information, see
7 Weakest Links Have Fallen Over
6 Latin America, 3.25%
50% To Date In 2021
5
Emerging Markets (ex. China), Dec. 14, 2021.
Default Rate (%)
4
2.38%
3
EM Asia (ex. China), 2.17%
2
1 EEMEA, 0.00%
0
C Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21
CreditPro data as of Oct. 31, 2021. Default rates are trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rates. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market
Intelligence's CreditPro®.
53Rating Actions | Defaults
Year-End Global Corporate Defaults By Reason
Bankruptcy-Related
Distressed Exchanges / Out-Of-Court Restructuring
300 Missed principal/interest payments and default on financial obligations
Regulatory Intervention
Number Of Defaults
250
Confidential
200
150
100
50
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
*Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Data has been updated to reflect confidential issuers. Excludes sovereigns, includes Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global
Year-End EM 16 Corporate Defaults By Reason
Bankruptcy-Related Distressed Exchanges / Out-Of-Court Restructuring Missed principal/interest payments and default on financial obligations Regulatory Intervention Confidential
30
25
20
Number Of Defaults
15
10
5
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
Year
*Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Data has been updated to reflect confidential issuers. Excludes sovereigns, includes Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market
54Related Research
EMs | Related Research
Weakest Links Have Fallen Over 50% To Date In 2021, Dec. 14, 2021
Research Update:Turkey Outlook Revised To Negative On Uncertain Policy Direction Amid Rising External Risks; Ratings Affirmed, Dec. 10, 2021
Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2020 Annual Emerging And Frontier Markets Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study, Dec. 9, 2021
COVID-19 Impact: Key Takeaways From Our Articles, Dec. 8, 2021
Global Actions On Corporations, Sovereigns, International Public Finance, And Project Finance To Date In 2021, Dec. 7, 2021
Global Corporate Default Tally Remains At 67 As Defaults Continue To Slow, Dec. 2, 2021
Global Credit Outlook 2022: Aftershocks, Future Shocks, And Transitions, Dec. 1, 2021
Credit Conditions: Emerging Markets: Inflation, The Unwelcome Guest, Dec. 1, 2021
Emerging Markets Will Inflation Be The Next Pandemic?, Dec. 1, 2021
Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Q1 2022: Recovery Isn't Yet Complete While COVID-19 And Inflation Risks Remain Front And Center, Nov. 30,
2021
Economic Outlook EMEA Emerging Markets Q1 2022: High Inflation And COVID-19 Threaten To Slow Recovery, Nov. 30, 2021
Economic Outlook Latin America Q1 2022: High Inflation And Labor Market Weakness Will Keep Risks Elevated In 2022, Nov. 30, 2021
'BBB' Pulse: The Future Looks Bright As Potential Rising Stars Shoot Up, Nov. 24, 2021
Caucasus And Central Asian Economies Look To Commodities And Domestic Demand To Emerge From The Pandemic, Nov. 11, 2021
56EMs | Contacts
Economics Global Paul F Gruenwald, New York, +1-212-438-1710, paul.gruenwald@spglobal.com
Emerging Markets Satyam Panday, New York, +1-212-438-6009, Satyam.panday@spglobal.com
EM Asia Vishrut Rana, Singapore, +65-6216-1008, vishrut.rana@spglobal.com
EM Europe, Middle-East & Africa Tatiana Lysenko, Paris, +33-14-420-6748, tatiana.lysenko@spglobal.com
Latin America Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, New York, +1-212-438-2228, elijah.oliveros@spglobal.com
Research Global Alexandra Dimitrijevic, London, +44-20-7176-3128, alexandra.dimitrijevic@spglobal.com
Emerging Markets Jose Perez-Gorozpe, Mexico City, +52-55-5081-4442, jose.perez-gorozpe@spglobal.com
Credit Market Research Patrick Drury Byrne, Dublin, +353-1- 568-0605, Patrick.drurybyrne@spglobal.com
Ratings Performance Analytics Nick Kraemer, New York, +1-212-438-1698, nick.kraemer@spglobal.com
Lyndon Fernandes, lyndon.fernandes@spglobal.com
Research Support
Nivritti Mishra, nivritti.mishra@spglobal.com
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