Electoral Politics in Transforming India : A Study of Elections to the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha Post-2014 Shrawan Kumar Pandey1
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Purakala ISSN: 0971-2143
Vol-31-Issue-21-May-2020
(UGC Care Journal)
Electoral Politics in Transforming India : A Study of
Elections to the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha Post-2014
Shrawan Kumar Pandey 1
Abstract
The electoral politics in India indicate the nature of the transforming India, whether it is
national elections or state elections. The election in India is a fascinating event and the Lok
Sabha election every five years is more often termed as the dance of democracy in India due
to amount of people get involved in this. Election to the Lok Sabha is fought on national
issues whereas election to the Vidhan Sabha is fought on local issues. The implementation of
economic policies and developmental actions takes place at the state-level. Each state
launches its programs and policies apart from centrally sponsored schemes and central
sector schemes to address regional disparities. The regional issues and promise of taking
care of local issues gives an advantage to regional parties in Indian politics. This paper will
discuss in detail the structure of politics which work at the national and state level and what
matter for voters.
Key Words: Election, Political Party, Lok Sabha, Vidhan Sabha, and Government
Introduction:
In Indian politics, there is nothing like permanent trends. The electoral outcomes often have
been seen as an outcome of aggregation of state-level politics. If we have to put it simply it
has been a trend that if a party is performing well in the state elections it is supposed to do
well in national elections and vice versa. What is important to note that, post-2014 this trend
has taken a hit. There have been few fundamental changes which have affected the outcomes
of the elections at Union and state level. Prominent among them is the development
perspective of an election has started to replace caste and class-based voting patterns. The
rise of female voters in the electoral arena is another trend that has come to the surface and
Odisha has set the trend in this regard where female voters have crossed their male
1
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Galgotias University, Gautam Budha Nagar, UP,
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counterparts in terms of the total percentage of voting in Vidhan Sabha election of the state. It
is important to mention that the long tenure of any government in power has to have
charismatic leadership. Charismatic leadership had been playing its parts since the earliest
time also. The legacy of Jawaharlal Nehru (PM 1947-1964), Atal Bihari Vajpayee (PM 1996,
1998, 1999-2004), J. Jayalalithaa, (CM of Tamil Nadu 6 times 1991-2016 ) Jyoti Basu (CM
of West Bengal 1977-2000), is well known in the field of electoral politics. At present the
charismatic leadership working in the form of Narendra Modi (CM of Gujarat 2001-2014 and
PM 2014-present), Naveen Patnaik (CM of Odisha 2000-Present), Shivraj Singh Chauhan
(CM of Madhya Pradesh 2003-Present). Among others factors which can be taken into
account are delivery of basic services, governance efficiency, and outreach to the electorate
etc. It is necessary to analyze how these factors have affected electoral outcomes at the state
and central level. Before we proceed to discuss the structural changes we are witnessing in
the electoral politics largely since the start of the 21st century and particularly since post-
2014, we need to discuss Structure of Government at National and State Level in India.
Structure of Government at National and State Level in India:
Lok Sabha is the Lower house of the Parliament of India. It is also known as the House of
People as its members are directly elected by the general public through the general elections.
They are known as Lok Sabha MPs. Rajya Sabha is the Upper house of the Parliament of
India. It is also known as the Council of States as its members are elected not by the general
public but by the members of the state legislative assembly. They are known as Rajya Sabha
MPs. In a Vidhan Sabha, there cannot be more than 500 and less than 60 members. It can
have less than 60 members only through an Act of Parliament as is the case in Goa, Sikkim,
Mizoram and the Union Territory of Puducherry. In Rajya Sabha, there can be a maximum of
250 members, according to our Constitution but current Indian laws have provision for 245
members. Out of these, the President can appoint 12 members for their contributions to art,
literature, science, and social services2.
In Lok Sabha, there can be a maximum of 552 members of which 530 are from the states, 20
are from the Union Territories and 2 are from an Anglo-Indian community who can be
appointed by the President. People from the Anglo-Indian community are people with a mix
2
Parliament of India: Lok Sbha House of the People https://loksabha.nic.in/ accessed on 10/02/2020.
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of Indian and British ancestry. Current Indian laws have provision for 545 seats of which
530, 13 and 2 are the respective distribution.
Vidhan Sabha or the Legislative Assembly is the lower house of the state legislature. The
upper house though in existence but it exists only in the seven states with a bicameral
legislature is called the Legislative Council, or Vidhan Parishad. They are Andhra Pradesh,
Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Uttar Pradesh. It is
important to note that The Andhra Pradesh legislative assembly recently unanimously passed
a resolution on January 27, 2020, to abolish the state legislative council. The members of a
Vidhan Sabha are elected by the general public through the state elections. They are known
as MLAs or Members of the Legislative Assembly3.
Changing Pattern of National and Regional Aspirations:
Development an Issue:
Elections in India were used to be fought on the issues of caste, class, religion, and identity-
based. But since last two decades’ elections are being now looked at from the lens of
development. The economic policies of the government are now looked at before election by
the people and how people have been benefited out of this becomes a parameter for
preference for the electorate. Earlier parties were trying to get support in the name of
development slogans only but now after seven decades of independence electorate have
enough information to judge their respective representatives. What is important to mention
that, every political party declare their election manifesto before the election to attract voters
in their favor. Once party gets elected after election their manifesto declaration is watched
closely by opposition parties and they put pressure on ruling parties to fulfill the promises
they made with the masses before the election. Now the electorate who gave votes to the
party in lieu of their promise for freebies becomes an important in deciding next election.
Electorate now judges on the basis whether parties have fulfilled the same or not.
The other aspect of the concept of development in the election is related to
state being portrayed as the model of development. States have championed the cause of
welfare measures in different sectors, for example the state of Chhattisgarh in execution of
3
Andhra Pradesh Assembly accessed at https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/andhra-
pradesh-assembly-passes-resolution-to-abolish-legislative-council/article30666672.ece on 10/02/2020
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Public Distribution System, Kerala in Health Sector Schemes, and Jharkhand in Direct
Benefit Transfer. Why these models are being talked about because these states have done
well in above mentioned sectors in their own specific methods. The other states can also
replicate these models in their own respective regions. Although we can talk about states like
Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra but these states have done well in welfare measures
because they have strong economic bases. But if states like Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh
and Odisha are going to doing well, they become model for states of similar nature. These
states having the tag of BIMARU states have been able to overcome this tag by their
developmental achievements.
Rise of female voters:
Female voters and male voters both have a similar value for their votes. Female participation
in the elections in India has not been at par with male voters. In the first few decades, the
difference between male and female voters participating in the election were quite high but at
the turn of the new century, female voters are on the rise. Participation through Panchayats
and Municipals election and gender-sensitization program organized by the government has
helped female voters to match with their male counterparts. The effect of this seems to have
been positive on the lives of women. The political parties now more often look after the
issues of women. It is important to note that reservation for women has seen upward
movement across States. As many as 20 states have given 50% reservation to women at the
level of Panchayats. This encourages the participation of women in electoral politics. The
states of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Kerala, Maharashtra, Orissa,
Rajasthan, Tripura, and Uttarakhand have made legal provision for 50% reservation for
women among members and Sarpanches 4. Earlier when elections were held in India, the
margin of difference between male and female voters was high as much as 19% in 1952 Lok
Sabha election but in 2014 Lok Sabha election it came down to 1.5% (Prannoy Roy & Dorab
R. Sopariwala). The rise of female voters in the elections speaks about the volume of their
importance in the elections. In last two decades there has been a rise in turnout of female
voters faster than male voters in elections. The rise of female voters is even more fascinating
4
Reservation for women in states accessed at Ministry of Panchayati Raj https://www.panchayat.gov.in/ on
12/03/2020.
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in assembly elections. In the state assembly election of Odisha in 2014 saw female voter
surpassed the male voters.
Charismatic leadership
Leadership in India politics have a great impact on the performance of parties in
elections whether it is national or local election. When any party wins’ election and form the
government in the state first step is, all the elected representative elects their leader of the
house, that leader of the house takes a charge of the state. It is important to note that, any
leader is known by the kind of the work he or she have done for the state and here the
charisma of leadership take birth. The charisma in leadership relies on the charm and
persuasiveness of the leader. Charismatic leaders are driven by their convictions and
commitment to their cause. It is when a leader is believed to have committed for the
betterment of his or her state and people tend to attach themselves with that leader. A leader
becomes charismatic when people believe he is best who can do well for them. Charismatic
leadership has become the basis for long term rule in the states. There have been many
leaders who in the past remained leader for longer period of time and that have been possible
because charismatic leadership were able to create political stability in the states. For
example, Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh Shivraj Singh Chauhan from 2003 to 2018,
Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh Raman Singh from 2003 to 2018, and Chief Minister of
Odisha from 2000 till present. These are some of the leaders in recent time who have been
able to lead from the front. These leaders have been able to create a bond with the people due
to their style of functioning. It is their charismatic leadership which influenced people in tern
supporting the government for consecutive terms.
Other issues affecting electoral outcomes:
The other trends which has come to fore is working for his/her constituency does not
guarantee the Member of Parliament or Member of Legislative Assembly to win the Lok
Sabha elections and Assembly elections respectively but if the electoral promises are
unfulfilled the chances of losing increases. In Lok Sabha and legislative assembly elections, a
sitting member can be confident of his/her re-election if promises made in previous tenure are
delivered. However, in the case of non-fulfilment of electoral promises, the probability of
loss notches up to greater extent.
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In the central and state elections the voting pattern unveils how different identities & issues
shape the election narrative and results. While local issues play a pivotal role in defining the
state elections, the central level elections are fought on issues of national importance. Hence,
outcomes of Lok Sabha and legislative elections depend on different factors. The recent
trends in the electoral system of India says the charisma of Prime Minister decides the victory
of M.P in India whereas at in the assembly elections MLA importance has become ever so
important in deciding the face of Chief Minister. Recent electoral outcomes and turnaround
post-elections have put question mark on MLAs. Electoral politics in state has turned politics
of resort whereas political parties to safeguard MLAs from horse-trading shift their MLAs to
hidden places.
National and Regional Aspirations: Post-2014
Looking at the performance of BJP in 2014 and 2019 general elections, it was expected that
so-called honeymoon period will continue for BJP but upside down has happened. Although
BJP increased its tally since the 2014 Lok Sabha election, BJP has faced anti-incumbency in
state elections it’s fighting. The party now governs 35% of the country landmass in
comparison to over 71% at one in 2017 as per recent trends. The BJP has lost states of
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Punjab. In Table 1
we can see that BJP since 2014 has lost seats in all the state assembly elections barring Uttar
Pradesh where it came to power after two decades. In the state election of Maharashtra,
Jharkhand, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, BJP was dethroned from
power. Whereas in the state of Haryana and Gujarat it lost its seats from last time.
Table: 1 Performance of BJP since 2014 in Assembly Elections
State 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019
Maharashtra 122 (288) 105 (288)
Haryana 47 (90) 40 (90)
Jharkhand 37 (81) 25 (81)
Bihar 53 (243)
Punjab (3) 117
UP 312 (403)
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Gujarat 99 (182)
Madhya 109 (230)
Pradesh
Rajasthan 73 (200)
Karnataka 104 (224)
Chhattisgarh 15 (90)
Source: Election Commission of India
Note: *Only those states have been taken into the account where BJP was in power.
*Number of seats given in brackets is the total number of seats in the state Vidhan Sabha and
outside of the bracket BJP secured in the elections.
Changing voter’s behavior since 2014
There has been a change in voting behavior in Indian politics since the arrival of BJP under
Narendra Modi. The rise of BJP has been the extent of variation in voting behavior during
Lok Sabha and state assembly elections. If we go back in history we find that during the
1990s, state-level dynamics determined voting behavior during national elections too. But
since 2014, there is a national mood during the Lok Sabha elections that dissolves state-
specificities, but the same specificities come back with greater vigor during assembly
elections. The recent election of Jharkhand and Delhi is the testimony of this fact. In
Jharkhand, BJP lost the election to Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) on regional issues of
tribal people. Similarly recently hard-fought Delhi election where BJP had won seven out of
seven seats during 2019 Lok Sabha election could increase its tally to eight seats from three
seats. The BJP, with its centralized leadership and the nationally coordinated campaign,
is finding it difficult to break through this emerging divergence in people’s voting
preferences.
Conclusion:
For voters what matters is who fulfill their aspiration. The satisfaction level of the voters with
the incumbent or dissatisfaction matters for them for putting parties of their likeness in power
or to overthrow them. The rise of female voters in large numbers is also of the reason behind
parties performing well in elections. The manifestation of voter’s interest at the national and
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state level is different and that has come at the forefront. Their regional aspiration differs
from their national aspiration. So it can be said that no parties can take voters for granted.
They have to perform at every count to be in power or they will be replaced by challenger on
the promise of bridging the gap left by them. This what the transforming India stand for in
21st century.
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Prannoy Roy & Dorab R. Sopariwala, The Verdict: Decoding India's Elections, Penguin
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Varshney and Nirupam Bajpai, New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 1999.
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resolution-to-abolish-legislative council/article30666672.ece on 10/02/2020
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reports/ on 10/02/2020
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If we look at the political journey of the country since independence the national government
was strong and state governments were working as a satellite of the national government till
the 1990s. The post-liberalization saw the rise of competitive aspiration among states to bring
their state at the top. A new dimension of development opened and state governments started
to act according to economic changes they saw happening around them. The aspirational and
informed society developed with the time in the form of the academic intelligentsia had a
serious demand that the benefits of reforms should reach to the last Indian. It is important to
mention that people in any society would like to get higher income and more stable and
secure livelihoods and people in India are not different. They also want economic and social
services such as health and education, and better infrastructure such as Bijali, Pani and Sadak.
Since voters demand more economic benefits and India has a strong anti-incumbency
preference, politicians and parties have realized the need to construct cross-caste coalitions
and make election promises focused on local and national public goods like road, electricity,
water, education, health, etc. The present government at the union level of Bharatiya Janata
Party [BJP] came to power promising a national public good, national security and
Nationalism5.
5
Prannoy Roy & Dorab R. Sopariwala, The Verdict: Decoding India's Elections, Penguin Random House, 2019,
Gurgaon Pg. No.4
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