EL PROYECTO HIRLAM-C (2016-2020): ESTADO Y EVOLUCIÓN - Dr. Daniel Santos-Muñoz (AEMET) HIRLAM-C Project Leader for System - Repositorio AEMET
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EL PROYECTO HIRLAM-C
(2016-2020): ESTADO Y
EVOLUCIÓN
Dr. Daniel Santos-Muñoz (AEMET)
HIRLAM-C Project Leader for System
VI SIMPOSIO NACIONAL DEL PREDICCIÓN Memorial Antonio Mestre
AEMET, Madrid, 17-19 Septiembre, 2018
HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model) fue el primer consorcio en Europa para desarrollar modelos de area limitada. Fundado en 1985 en los paises Nordicos se extedió a otros paises posteriormens. 6 proyectos: HIRLAM-1 a HIRLAM-6. 3 Programas de 5 años: HIRLAM-A (2006-2010), HIRLAM- B (2010-2015) y HIRLAM-C (2016-2020).
HIRLAM-C Management Team
Jeanette Onvlee Programme manager KNMI
Roger Randriamampianina Project Leader Atmospheric Data Met.no
Assimilation
Sander Tijm Project Leader Atmospheric KNMI
Forecast Model
Patrick Samuelsson Project Leader Surface Analysis SMHI
and Modelling
Bent Hansen Sass Project Leader Quality Assurance DMI
Inger-lise Frogner Project Leader Probabilistic Met.no
Forecasting
Daniel Santos Munoz Project Leader System AEMET
Roel Strapers Code Analyst Met.no
Frank Lantsheer Scientific Secretary KNMI
EN 2005 HIRLAM comenzo a cooperar con el consorcio
ALADIN para desarrollar y manterner un modelo a corto
plazo dentro del marco de código del ECMWF/Arpege
Integrated Forecasting System (IFS).
El Sistema ALADIN-HIRLAM (A-H System) contiene 3
cofiguraciones canónicas (CMC) del modelo:
Arome-France
Alaro-Cz
Harmonie-Arome
IFS (cyXXR.x)
ARPEGE(cyXXT.x)
ALARO
AROME
ALARO
AROME HIRLAM Model
cyXXT.x_export HARMONIE-AROME(cyXXh.x)
HARMONIE
Hirlam and Aladin Research On
Non-hydrostatic forecast In Europe
Domain Cycle Grid DA forecast length/cycle
AEMET 40h1.1 2.5 km 65 lev 3DVar + surf ana 48h/8 times
DMI 40h1.1 2.5 km 65 lev 3DVar + surf ana 66h/8 times
KNMI 40h1.1.tg2 2.5 km 65 lev 3DVAR + Surf ana 48h/8 times
LHMS 40h1.1 2.5 km 65 lev blending + Surf ana 54h/8 times
MetEireann 40h1.1 2.5 km 65 lev blending + Surf ana 54h/4 times
MetCoOp 48/66h at 00,06,12,18,
40h1.1.rc.1 2.5 km 65 lev 3DVAR + Surf ana
HarmonEPS 3h at 03,09,15,21
VI-Iceland 38h1.2 2.5 km 65 lev blending + Surf ana 48h/4 times
Number of Initial Boundary Model Forecast
Models version DA control DA members
members perturbations perturbations perturbation length
PertAna, 66h for
3DVAR,
MetCoOp 40h1.1.1.rc1 9+1 CANARI 6h Surface SLAF control, 54h
CANARI 3h
perturbations for members
multi-physics
(harmonie),
harmonie
multi-physics,
DMI-COMEPS 40h1.1 + 12+12 3DVAR none PertAna SLAF N/A
stochastic
hirlam 7.3
physics
(hirlam)
non-conventional
Models DA version obs cut-off time conventional data
data
SYNOP, AIRCRAFT, AMSU-A, AMSU-B,
AEMET 3DVAR 40h1.1 1 h 10 m
SHIP, DRIBU, TEMP MHS, GNSS
AMSU-A, MHS, AMV,
SYNOP, AIRCRAFT,
DMI-NEA 3DVAR 40h1.1 1 h 25 m MODES, ATMS, RO,
SHIP, DRIBU, TEMP
radar reflectivity
SYNOP, AIRCRAFT, AMSU-A, MHS, AMV,
DMI/IMO-IGB 3DVAR 40h1.1 0h30 m
SHIP, DRIBU, TEMP MODES, ATMS, RO
AMSU-A, MHS, AMV,
SYNOP, AIRCRAFT,
DMI-COMEPS 3DVAR 40h1.1 0 h 30 m MODES, ATMS, RO,
SHIP, DRIBU, TEMP
radar reflectivity
SYNOP, AIRCRAFT,
IRELAND25_090 3DVAR 40h1 0h 45m none
SHIP, DRIBU, TEMP
SYNOP, AIRCRAFT,
KNMI 36h1.4 3DVAR 36h1.4.bf1 1h 5m none
SHIP, DRIBU, TEMP
SYNOP, AIRCRAFT,
KNMI-MODES 3DVAR 36h1.4.bf1 1h 5m Mode-S
SHIP, DRIBU, TEMP
AMSU-A, AMSU-B,
SYNOP, AIRCRAFT,
AROME-Arctic 3DVAR 38h1.2 ~2h MHS, ASCAT, GNSS,
SHIP, DRIBU, TEMP
IASI
AMSU-A, AMSU-B,
SYNOP, AIRCRAFT, MHS,
MetCoOp 3DVAR 40h1.1.1.rc1 1 h 15 m
SHIP, DRIBU, TEMP RADAR (dbz), ASCAT,
GNSS, IASI
RCR (Regular Cycle of the Reference system): sistema de
referencia con un configuración acordada y un sistema cíclico
de asimilación de datos.
Se fija una referencia en cuanto a frecuencia de asimilación, el
uso de las observaciones, la resolución, los dominios, las
parametrizaciónes físicas, opciones del modelo….
Por cada release completa del HARMONIE Reference System,
uno o más miembros de HIRLAM son seleccionados para ser
RCR en su modelo operacional.
Ha sido RCR para los ciclos 38 y 40Harmonie-Arome cycles
2016/09/23 Harmonie-40h1.1
Harmonie-40h1.2.tg1
2017/04/04
Harmonie-40h1.2.tg2
Meteorological
verification and
validation
Harmonie-40h1.2.rc1
Harmonie-40h1.2.rc1
2017/04-05 …
Harmonie-40h1.2
2017/06/15Harmonie-Arome cycles 38h1.2 vs 40h1.1 vs IFS
Severe convection triggering problems
12Harmonie-Arome cycles
2016/09/23 Harmonie-40h1.1
Harmonie-40h1.2.tg1
2017/04/04
Meteorological Harmonie-40h1.2.tg2
verification and
validation
2017/07/07 Harmonie-40h1.1.bf1
Harmonie-40h1.1.1.rc1
2018/03/28
2018/07/19 Harmonie-40h1.1.1
Harmonie-43h2.alpha
2018/09 ???Harmonie-Arome cycles
2016/09/23 Harmonie-40h1.1
- OROTUR functionality
- Field Alignment/Variational Constraints
- LETKF implementation Harmonie-40h1.2.tg1
- 2017/04/04
Reintegration of last MF bugfix version (bf 07)
- Surfex fixesMeteorological
and Harmonie-40h1.2.tg2
- verification
Modifications andmicrophysics (bug fixes )and attempts to optimize the
of cloud
code. validation
- 4D Var 2017/07/07 Harmonie-40h1.1.bf1
- MSGinit to initialise humidity in the model by nudging it with data from MSG
satellite information
Harmonie-40h1.1.1.rc1
- Scale SLAFK 2018/03/28
according to total energy of perturbations
- Technical update to allow assimilation MSG4 AMV observations
- FLAKE functionalit
- TOTPREC bugfix gl_grib_api and testbedHarmonie-40h1.1.1
2018/07/19 enhancements
- Add GRIB2 functionality
Harmonie-43h2.alpha
2018/09 ???Cy43T2.bf09 preparándose para operación en MF estaba prevista para 2017
Cy45R3 Integrated Forecasting
System (IFS), operacional 5/06/ 2018
Dentro del marco de código del ECMWF/Arpege se esperan más
cambios en estos 10 años que en los últimos 50Phasing
Hamonie-38h1.2
cy43T2
Hamonie-40h1.1 6 versiones de diferencia
cy45T1 nos lleva a una nueva
estrategia de fordward-
phasing
Hamonie-40h1.1.1
cy46T1Actividades de HIRLAM/ALADIN en números
En 2018 1057.75 PMs lo
que supone 96 personas
trabajando FULL TIME en El código de harmonie-40h1.1.1
desarrollar el modelo
Tamaño: 842 Mb
Numero de ficheros: 50.321
Numero de Líneas : 25.839.612
src: 13.658.626
scr: 173.902
1125 commits en menos de gl: 273.104
un año en el repositorio de
HIRLAMEvolución
Dynamics
Boundary conditions and nesting Data Assimilation
Surface analysis and modelling Towards Evaluate
operational performance of
SEKF with diffusion soil scheme HybridEnVar
implementation of
and explicit snow scheme. First algorithm (EDA,
4D-Var
use conventional observations BRAND, LETKF )
for assimilation (i.e. T2m and Data assimilation
Rh2m) and then also satellite setups suited for Future satellite
products. nowcasting instruments:
Aeolus L2 HLOS
Ensemble forecasting and predictability winds, MTG-IRS,
IASI-NG, winds
Development of convection-permitting from various
ensembles: HarmonEPS - Physics, initial scatterometers
conditions, surface, lateral boundary
perturbationsEvolución
Quality assurance
and verification
Work on HARP (Hirlam-Aladin R- Technical code and system
package) and new verification developments
methods
Coordination and collaboration with Barcelona
Supercomputer Center in the study about the
efficient use of the computational resources.
Towards modelling at (sub-)km resolution
Setup sub-km local domains in Harmonie-
Arome to establish the best operational
configuratio with data-assimilation cyclingNordNWP
Evolución
En el 2020 ALADIN-HIRLAM han de formar un único consorcio,
pero muy probablemente con 3 CMCs.
El concepto de MetCoOp se extiende por los distintos
miembros de HIRLAM : UWC UWC
MoU: August 2018
PM: Dick Blaauboer
UWC: project 2018-2027
>2027 operational
MetCoOp: existing
UWC West:
operational collaboration
project 2018-2022
To be extended with Baltic
>2022 operational
states, 2018-2022
UWC West
MetCoOp
MoU: June 2018
Operational
PM: René van Lier
Rotating leads:
NWP: SMHI, ICT: FMI, SC: MetNoHARMONIE Users Workshop 2018
AEMET 6-7 November 2018
6 November
7 November
8:45 - 9:00: Registration 9:00 -10:20: Presentations by forecasters
9:00-12:00: Group discussions continued
(AEMET, DMI, ESTEA, FMI )
12:00-13:00: Lunch
10:20 -10:40: Coffee break 10:40 -12:20: Presentations by
13:00-14:00: AEMET arrangement related to forecasting
forecasters (continued) (IMO, KNMI, Met.Eireann, Met.Norway,
14:00-15:30: Finalization of working group discussions
SMHI)
15:30-17:00: Group summary presentations in plenum
12:20 -13:00: LUNCH 13:00 -15:00: Presentations by model
17:00: End of workshop
developers and HIRLAM-C Management
15:00 -15:30: Coffee break and initiation of workshop groups 15:30
-17:00: Initiation of workshop discussions (3 groups)
A) Weaknesses of the Harmonie model system and possible causes/ways to address them
B) New ways to use the model e.g. making use of ensemble information, more advanced data-
assimilation and new nowcasting setups.
C) Post-processing and desired model productsGRACIAS por la atención
CY45 : 28 June 2017 ― Significant re-factoring for OOPS ! ► Obs operators [CY43-CY44-CY45] ► ODB interfaces [CY45] ► MODEL object in IFS codes [CY45] CY45T1 : 24 January 2018 ― Updates for Alaro-1 ; for Bator with Hirlam ― Tests : bug in IDFI, norms of Alaro under investigation, Aladin+Surfex test broken ― No DA tested CY46 : 10 April 2018 ― OOPS re-factoring : VarBC, time handling step 1, LBC object, etc. ― Full-POS for OOPS : re-factoring done (interfaces & methods are working) ― same level of overall validation than CY45T1 (Alaro norms ?, no DA tested etc.) ― IDFI fixed, fixes for FP and models included (thus, code probably a bit cleaner than in CY45T1_main) ― Use ecCodes for accessing GRIB_API interfaces CY46T0 or T1 : autumn 2018 (exact content and timing tbc) CY47 : January-March 2019 (agreed with ECMWF) ― Robust base version for OOPS ? CY47T1 : spring or autumn 2019
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