El Nino, Pineapple Express or Climate Change
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El Nino, Pineapple Express or
Climate Change
What Happened to Our
Water Supplies this Year?
IWUA Summer Water Law & Teton National Park
Resource Issues Seminar Thanksgiving Nov 2013
June 24, 2014 Sun Valley, Idaho
Ron Abramovich
Water Supply Specialist
USDA NRCS Snow Survey Boise, Idaho
Topics:
• Review of Climate Indices
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) - Past cycles & trends
• ENSO Correlations– El Nino – Neutral - La Nina
• Fall Winter Forecasts for Winter of 2013/2014
• 6 Different Forecasts & Several Different Opinions
• Rule #1 - Don’t believe the 1st forecast you hear
• Which Forecasts Worked, and Why
• Past Research - Should we expect more of the same climate variability in the future?
Or is this Climate Change?
• Streamflow forecast accuracy & increase in Spring precipitation variability
• Recent examples of climate variability & current research
• Winter 2013-2014 - What happened & when did we learn what we now know?
• Surf’s Up – January’s change in weather pattern
• El Nino Watch for Summer 2014
• Early Winter Outlooks for 2014-2015 – could the Winter of 2013/2014 be just another El
Nino year or could it be setting up similar to the Winter of 2013/2014?
Andrew’s -- Preliminary 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Summary
Posted: 14 Jun 2014 03:26 PM PDT
"Another Cold Winter May Be Brewing..." First
Temperature Precipitation
Analog Years
Dec-Feb
1986-1987
2009-2010
1981-1982
1983-1984
The Forecast What Can We Expect This Winter?
It's too early to make maps for this upcoming winter, but we have an abundance of
hints we can use for some early forecasting.
For the Pacific Northwest: A warmer than normal winter with around
average precipitation is currently favored, due to the state of the
Pacific Ocean and choice analog year. Snowfall is projected to be
slightly above normal.
Summary First Putting these two correlation comparisons together mean a positive PDO & El Nino may result in some very cold weather in the South & East US, with warmer temperatures stretched out across the North & West US. The PDO and El Nino are not the only two indices in the atmosphere, which may mean other factors may lessen this potential cold winter foreshadowing. We will get a better handle on this situation this summer and fall. Andrew
Teleconnections – climatic indexes - key is understanding their
correlations and influence on current weather (and snow, flow & more).
Primary Ones:
PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation – larger cycle
ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation – short cycle
El Nino Neutral La Nina measure of Sea Surface Temperature SST
SOI Southern Oscillation Index measure of barometric pressure
difference between Darwin & Tahiti
AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Key to past winter – went negative for handful of months…
in May it was declared back + phase
Additional Climate Indices:
NAO North Atlantic Oscillation
AO Artic Oscillation
SSW Sudden Stratospheric Warming
Sun Spots, Solar Activity, Polar Vortex, and more…..
Cool Phase Cool Phase Warm Phase
Warm Phase Cool Phase Warm Phase 90%
Correlation Map of the
Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI) with spring and
summer streamflow
Dry El Nino
Winter 2013-2014 Wet La Nina
• ENSO Signal: No / Little
Neutral & SOI Correlation
• Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) in
cool phase since at
least 2008 or 1997 Wet El Nino
Dry La NinaNov 2010 – Strong La Nina Nov 2011 – Weak La Nina
November 2012 ----- Neutral Years ----- November 2013
11January 23, 2014 – warm water in northern Pacific increasing
June 16, 2014 – El Nino BrewingEl Nino Watch for Summer 2014 75% Chance El Nino will develop by Summer or Fall
El Nino Watch for Summer 2014 75% Chance El Nino will develop by Summer or Fall
Winter 2010-2011 Strong La Nina Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Fall 2014 - hints at early fall, • Cold temperatures are building up over Artic, Sept snow & rain put forest fires out Our Crystal Ball isn’t always round…
Fall Forecasts for Winter
2013-2014
Weather Streamflow
Forecasts Forecast Combo
XXXX X X
6 Different Sources of Forecasts
Several Different ResultsRule #1 • Don’t believe the 1st forecast you hear • Wait until you hear the Same or Similar forecast from two or more of your unrelated sources
NOAA Forecast from
Oct 17, 2013
for Nov, Dec, Jan
Nov, Dec, Jan Temperature Nov, Dec, Jan PrecipitationPete Parsons Nov. 2013 – Jan. 2014 Forecasts
Temperatures Precipitation
- A stormy but relatively mild Nov and early Dec should give way
to much colder weather in late December and/or January.
- Precipitation should be well above average, with episodes of
“extreme” weather likely (i.e. windstorms, floods, valley snow,
Arctic air).ENSO Indices
SOI* Values For the Top "Analog Years"
and the Current 2-Year Period (2012-13)
(1967-68; 1980-81; 2006-07)
2.0
La Niña
1.5
1.0
2012-13
0.5 1967-68
SOI
1980-81
0.0 2006-07
-0.5
Neutral
-1.0
El Niño
-1.5
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
*For SOI explanation see: http://oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/forecast_method.pdfNRCS - Jan Curtis - Applied Climatologist retired after 41 years with several agencies. Jan always had a wealth of info to share about current weather & future outlook that might affect snowfall, snow accumulation, snowmelt rates, peak flows, and fall weather patterns hinting at first frost. Position is vacant - not sure when this NRCS Meteorologist / Applied Climatologist will be filled. He looks at a number of climate indices including solar activity – General forecast - with neutral conditions, precip could be near normal for West but bumpy road to reach normal levels by April 2014.
The abnormally low sunspot numbers will likely have some
sort of effect on the Earth … take home message is that we
are more prone to a chilly winter with sunspots projected to
drop than a warm one. Andrew 6-14-14
Sept 9, 2013 - the
sun, which should
be at SOLAR MAX,
is sporting a
measly 24
sunspot
number (150 is
more typical):
Years 2000 to 2018Current Research
2014 Fall Reservoir Carryover Storage
Oct 1, 2013 Storage: 8 Upper Snake Reservoirs 23% full, 50% of average
Jan 1, 2014 Storage: 8 Upper Snake Reservoirs 36% full, 63% of average
864 KAF 2 0 1 4
Palisades Reservoir & Jackson Lake Combined Storage and rank from low to high since 1958 Year oct nov dec jan feb mar 2004 362.0 451.0 542.0 621.0 686.0 793.0 Oct Nov Dec 2002 436.0 510.0 576.0 635.0 681.0 743.0 5th lowest since 1958 1989 401.0 515.0 602.0 689.0 761.0 889.0 1993 463.0 515.0 570.0 622.0 663.0 735.0 Jan Feb Mar 2005 414.0 520.0 616.0 704.0 774.0 864.0 4th lowest since 1958 2014 491.8 564.9 621.2 683.0 760.4 864.4 1978 527.0 594.0 695.0 773.0 829.0 813.0 2003 545.0 620.0 689.0 763.0 829.0 924.0 2008 525.0 638.0 734.0 822.0 902.0 989.0
Ranking of Jan 1, 2014 Reservoir Storage since 1955:
Little Wood 2nd lowest (since 1956)
Owyhee 4th lowest
Palisades & Jackson 4th lowest (since 1958)
Salmon Falls 8th lowest
Boise System 15th lowest
Magic 20th lowest
Mackay 21st lowest
Oakley 29th lowestPast Research & Examples of
Recent Climate Variability
By Tom Pagano who was at
USDA NRCS NWCC in PDX
Long-term Trends in
Water Supply Forecast Skill
Are there any long-term trends
in April 1st water supply forecast skill?
If so, where, when and why?Average skill for all forecasts over 20-yr moving
window for the West, as a whole.
April 1 forecast skill peaked around 1985 then
slumped afterwards
Good
BadWhere is spring
1961-80 1981-00 precipitation
more irregular?
Now, especially in
PNW & Southwest,
whereas before it
was very calm
This matches
Calm Typical Extreme decline
in forecast skill20-year moving
window
Spring precipitation
Westwide average of 29 basins “irregularity”
>1
Extreme
more extreme
than usualThe question is: Will trend
continue?
Yellowstone & or
Lowman Fires
return to normal?
Based on data since
mid 2000s, seems
like trend is
continuing……Recent Climate Variability – normal monthly precipitation
Nov - Mar
precipitation normally
accounts for 57-67% of
annual precipitation2010 Apr-Jun Precipitation ~ 20 stations received record high amounts Nov-Mar Precipitation ~90 of 115 sites were 1st-5th driest
2011: Snow Water Equivalent Two Ocean Plateau
SNOTEL in Yellowstone NP, Elevation 9,240 feet
1974 was last strong La Nina
deposited a snowpack that
was 184% of median in
Salmon River basin
Each event sets up
differentNRCS Snow School Lake Tahoe Jan 13, 2012 A week later major storms came into the West…
Jan 2012 Owyhee Basin 7 Station Snow Index were Record Low
Tim Link UofI
research that
more of winter
annual moisture
is coming in
fewer but bigger
stormsClimate Variability --- Spring 2012 Idaho Water Supply Reports:
March 2012
Snowmelt started melting two weeks earlier than normal this March at some
SNOTEL sites. …. warm storms producing new March precipitation records at 25
SNOTEL sites. Rain produced snowmelt at mid-elevation stations across the state.
April 2012
Record April temperatures reaching 90 F in the valleys and 70 F in the mountains…
1-2 inches of rain on April 26 increased streams to record high levels for this time of
year. Using long term valley weather station data as a gauge, this heat wave was
likely the hottest in April since 1875.
Water Year 2012
Streamflow Boise River
near Twin Springs2013 WOOD and LOST RIVER BASINS
Oct - Dec precipitation was 2nd wettest in the last 30 years at three
SNOTEL sites making it one of the best starts on record.
January 1 snowpacks were 130-160%.
BUT gave way to record low Jan-Apr SWE increases
Thanksgiving at
Galena Summit2013 Precip
Jan-Mar
California had it’s
driest start to a
calendar year since
at least 1895.
Dry record extends
up the coast range
of Oregon and
eastern slopes of
the Cascades.
From
John Abatzoglou
University of Idaho, April
7, 2013 email3rd Annual Pacific Northwest
Climate Science Conference,
1-2 October 2012
Boise, Idaho
3-day Max Temp
Climate Variability
Climate variability of the PNW
Nick Bond, UofW JISAO
Need to look at when event
occurs: 3-day Min Temp
• If outside snowmelt season -
- becomes a non-event
• If during snowmelt season 200 = July 18
- what are impacts?Troy Magney paper – Spatial and Seasonal Changes in Idaho’s
Max Daily Prec Events: Implications for Ag
• Observed warming
has led to an
intensification of the
largest precipitation
events, primarily in
spring/summer₂
More
Recent
ResearchFeb 2014 wind pattern In contrast to the January blocking ridge, a very strong jet stream allowed for the parade of weather systems to impact the PNW.
Setting the Stage for Winter 2013-2014 Natural Cycles – rate of
change might be key to
better understand…
New Volcanic Island
near Japan Nov 20132014
1981 - 2010 Avg
2013
2012Winter 2013-2014 What Happened?
Think Snow!!
Boulder Mountains near Sun Valley , looking SE from Hwy
93 South of Galena Lodge after Major Snow, Rain & Wind
Event January 11-14, 2014Surf’s Up
Jan 22, 2014
30-40 (60-80) foot
waves & erratic winds
cancel Hawaii Surfing
EventAnother Signal of What Might be Expected Soon: Jan 14 2014 daily SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) value was above 50, and the pressure at Darwin was at 998mb for 2nd consecutive day. A reading of a 50 does not occur often, based on 23 years of record. Here are FEW times the SOI daily number has been in the mid 40’s or above and events that followed: • Jan 14/15 2014: (44.17, 50.71)... ??? Abundant Moisture Feb/Mar 2014 • Dec 25 2011: (49.20) ..... Snowstorm/Arctic Blast Jan 14, 2012 • Jan 17/18 2011: (50.87, 55.43)..... Snow/Arctic Blast Feb 24, 2011 • Dec 22/23 2003: (44.34, 44.34).... Snow/Arctic Blast Jan 2, 2004 • Dec 4/5 2000: (49.61, 47.14)..... Modified Arctic air Dec 10-15, 2000 • Dec 11/12 1998: (51.02, 49.60)….. Major Arctic Blast Dec 19, 1998 It’s no fool proof method, but is now showing agreement with models
The PNA is getting interestingly negative: Pacific North American Index is one parameter (index) that helps for moisture in the PAC NW but there are others that are needed too.
February SWE Increase: Lewis Lake Divide SNOTEL had 5th highest February increase since records start in 1919
Another annual winter cycle each season…. The gist of the LRC involves a cycling weather pattern that develops in October and November of each year; no pattern is the same from year to year. Around mid November, the LRC begins to repeat, meaning we start to see a similar weather pattern in mid November that we saw in early October. This means that the cycling pattern has begun, and it will continue to cycle on a regular, somewhat-unchanging 40-60 day interval for the next ~10 months before it dissipates over the following summer. This season, the length of the LRC has been pegged at 57 days. If we take the January 6th date and move ahead ~57 days, we arrive in the timeframe of late February, a couple of days within the very cold weather the GFS Ensembles showed… - See more at: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/#sthash.esb9EIRD.dpuf
Precipitation in 1st half of March was still above average –
people were asking how long can this last….From March 19, 2014 talk • Long range and short range forecasts are not showing strong signals, the confidence in the forecasts are low…. • Persistence is still best forecast and wins in these types of weather patterns and what you see in your area is what you will continue to have until a different weather pattern sets in.
May 25, 2014 Oregon
Andrew’s -- Preliminary 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Summary
Posted: 14 Jun 2014 03:26 PM PDT
"Another Cold Winter May Be Brewing..." First
Temperature Precipitation
Analog Years
Dec-Feb
1986-1987
2009-2010
1981-1982
1983-1984
The Forecast What Can We Expect This Winter?
It's too early to make maps for this upcoming winter, but we have an abundance of
hints we can use for some early forecasting.
For the Pacific Northwest: A warmer than normal winter with around
average precipitation is currently favored, due to the state of the
Pacific Ocean and choice analog year. Snowfall is projected to be
slightly above normal.There are four specific items I want to review that are pointing towards this cold winter idea. 1. El Nino It's been discussed countless times already by countless weather agencies and enthusiasts, but we'll discuss it again here. The anomalously warm waters appearing west of Ecuador, nicknamed the El Nino phenomenon, look to be a crucial piece to this puzzle indicating a chilly winter ahead. In typical El Nino situations, we tend to see warm weather confined to the North and West US regions, while cool anomalies prevail in the South and East. Considering the El Nino retains the highest confidence for still being present in the coming winter, confidence in a cooler than normal winter for the aforementioned regions rises in response. 2. Cooler than Normal West Pacific This factor doesn't constitute an oscillation or index, per se, but will likely play into what we see happen this winter. The past cold season, I based the majority of my long range posts off of storms I was seeing hit Japan, based on the Typhoon Rule popularized by Joe Renken. It only takes a simple understanding of the relationship between high/low pressure patterns and sea surface anomalies to recognize what this means. The presence of below normal water temperatures extending eastward from Japan could very well mean that we see a stormy pattern over Japan this winter. Translating that through the Typhoon Rule, it means that the prospects of a stormy (and consequentially cooler) winter are enhanced. 3. Positive Water Temperature Anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska In addition to the waters off Ecuador, the Gulf of Alaska is also experiencing above normal water temperatures. However, the placement of this particular body of warm water is key. Last winter, well above normal water temperature anomalies in the Northeast Pacific resulted in consistent high pressure along the West Coast, which provoked the polar vortex and incredibly cold air to push south, affecting much of the United States in the process. Barring any significant changes this summer and fall, a similar situation could unfold this next cold season. Andrew
4. AMO The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is the wild card this winter. In recent months, it has reversed from its positive phase, which appears as warm waters along the coast of Greenland and into the Arctic Circle, into its negative phase, which features cold water temperatures in those same areas. If warm water holds out, we can expect increased probabilities of high pressure being sustained over Greenland, which would buckle the jet stream to the south and allow for cold air to penetrate deep into the Eastern US. Again, however, this is the wild card, and we likely won't know if this will happen for another handful of months. Andrew
Our weather is
always changing to
form our climate.
Key is figuring it out
to better understand
Questions/Comments/ Corrections the driving forces &
relationships to
make better
decisions to mitigate
impacts from
climate variability
increase.Think Snow!!
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