DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2018 WITH AREA FOCUS: DUBLIN 8 - RESEARCH - Knight Frank

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DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2018 WITH AREA FOCUS: DUBLIN 8 - RESEARCH - Knight Frank
RESEARCH

DUBLIN
OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2018
WITH AREA FOCUS: DUBLIN 8

OCCUPIER TRENDS   INVESTMENT TRENDS   MARKET OUTLOOK
DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2018                                                 RESEARCH

                                               Q3 OVERVIEW                                                                                   Occupier market                                                                                        West Suburbs was boosted by DPS

    SUMMARY
                                                                                                                                                                                            FIGURE 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Group’s taking of 22,480 sq ft at 3096
                                                                                                                                                                                            Take-up by location
                                                                                                                                             Just over 562,000 sq ft transacted in                                                                  Lake Drive, Citywest Business Campus.
                                               Year-to-date office letting activity is 8% higher than at                                     Q3 which represents a 47% increase in
                                                                                                                                                           SOUTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    In the South Suburbs, PLR Worldwide
                                                                                                                                             comparison to    the same quarter last year.
    1.	The ESRI upgraded their                the same juncture in 2017.                                                                                  SUBURBS
                                                                                                                                             This brings the year-to-date take-up to                              SOUTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sales took 17,562 sq ft at Red Oak
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    in the South County Business Park
        economic forecast for 2018 to                                                                                                                NORTH
                                                                                                                                                                  10
                                                                                                                                                         sq ft, 8% %         22
                                                                                                                                                                              % same
                                                                                                                                                                                                  NORTH          SUBURBS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               23%
        8.9% from 4.7%
                                                                                                                                             2.2 million
                                                                                                                                                   SUBURBS          ahead of the                SUBURBS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  10%                               with the area accounting for 10% of
                                               Economy                                        43.3% as measured by GNI* and 67.9%
                                                                                              as measured by GDP, with the variance
                                                                                                                                                              7
                                                                                                                                             point of the record
                                                                                                                                                               %  breaking WEST
                                                                                                                                                                             2017.
                                                                                                                                                                           SUBURBS
                                                                                                                                                                                   The
                                                                                                                                                                                              FRINGE
                                                                                                                                                                                                             8%                WEST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               SUBURBS              letting activity, while the North Suburbs5% WEST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             SUBURBS
                                                                                                                                             CityFRINGE
                                                                                                                                                          7
                                                                                                                                                  Centre dominated letting activity,
                                                                                                                                                            %                                           7%                                          comprised 8% of the market with its          2% NORTH
    2.	562,000 sq ft transacted in Q3,        The Irish economy continues to expand          between the two largely explained by the       accounting for 53% of all transactions.                                                                                                             SUBURBS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    share supported    by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     SOUTH the second
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 FRINGE largest
                                               at a rapid clip. Stronger than expected        aforementioned activity in 2015.               Take-up in the City Centre was driven
        bringing take-up to 2.2 million
                                               domestic consumption combined with
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    transaction ofSUBURBS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Q3 which saw Kellogg’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     %           13
        sq ft for the first nine months of
        the year                               trade effects has prompted the Economic
                                                                                              By either reckoning, growth has been very      by the strong performance of Dublin
                                                                                                                                             2, which comprised 40% of occupier
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    become the first tenant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          %19  at Three  Dublin
                                                                                              strong and outperformed expectations. For                        CITY CENTRE                                        CITY CENTRE                       Airport Central. The company is taking
                                               Social and Research Institute (ESRI)                                                          activity and included   the largest deal

    3.	Prime Grade-A rents stand at
                                               to revise up its 2018 GDP forecast to
                                                                                              example, in June 2012, the International
                                                                                              Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast cumulative
                                                                                                                                                                   53
                                                                                                                                             of Q3 which saw Google%take 58,000                                     53%                             39,008 sq ft – a move that will see them
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    relocate from their current location at the
                                               8.9% in its Autumn Quarterly Economic                                                         sq ft at One Grand Canal Quay. Dublin
        €62.50 psf in Q3, unchanged for                                                       growth for Ireland of 22.7% between 2013                                                                                                              Airside Business Park.
                                               Commentary, up from the 4.7% contained                                                        2 also accounted for the third largest
        the past 12 months                                                                    and 2017. Therefore, despite the recovery                                                     Source: Knight Frank Research
                                               within its Summer forecast.                                                                   transaction of Q3 with biopharmaceutical                                                               The Fringe market CITY  CENTRE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       comprised   the
                                               While GDP figures for Ireland need to be
                                                                                              being much stronger than anticipated, it is
                                                                                              worrying that the Government is still due to
                                                                                                                                             company Biomarin taking 25,863 sq ft
                                                                                                                                             at 5 Earlsfort Terrace, which is currently
                                                                                                                                                                                            related moves, occupying 2,097 sq ft                    remaining share of take-up%with 7%.  61
    4. O
        ffice yields remain at 4.0%,          treated with a degree of caution due to        run a budget deficit in 2019 as a result of                                                   at 4 Earlsfort Terrace and 1,413 at 23                  Looking at a sectoral view of the market,
       unchanged since the end of                                                                                                            being refurbished by IPUT.
                                               the well documented distortions caused         expansionary measures contained within                                                        Shelbourne Road respectively.                           TMT dominated occupier activity with
       last year                               by the multinational sector, the alternative   the recent Budget. While Government policy                                                                                                            38% of deals. This was followed by
                                                                                                                                                                                            The West Suburbs accounted for 23%
                                               measure introduced in 2017 by the Central      following the crisis had been successful       FIGURE 2                                                                                               the Professional Services and Finance
                                                                                                                                                                                            of take-up, significantly surpassing its
    5.	Dublin 8 is seeing heightened          Statistics Office (CSO) designed to strip      in introducing measures that reduced the       Office take-up sq ft                                                                                   sectors which accounted for 21% and
                                                                                                                                                                                            5-year average of 8%. Take-up in the
        investor activity                      out these effects – Modified Gross National    country’s high level of Government debt,                                                                                                              13% respectively. Prime rents remain
                                               Income or GNI* – has illustrated broadly       progress has stalled since 2016 as a degree    4,000,000                                                                                              stable at €62.50 psf, representing 12
                                               similar growth for the Irish economy over      of complacency appears to have set in.                                                        FIGURE 4                                                months unchanged at this level.
                                               the last couple of years (12.3% for GNI* V
                                                                                                                                             3,500,000                                      Take-up by sector
                                                                                              By threatening macroeconomic stability
                                               12.1% for GDP between 2016 and 2017).                                                         3,000,000                                                                                              FIGURE 5
                                                                                              in the event of an economic downturn,
                                               The new measure was developed in               persistent high levels of Government debt
                                                                                                                                                                                                  3%         10%                                    Dublin prime office rents
                                                                                                                                             2,500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                              2%                                                    € per sq ft per annum
                                               response to the 2015 GDP growth                is the number one risk to the real estate
                                                                                                                                             2,000,000
                                               figure which showed an expansion of            market at this moment. With the IMF                                                                4%                                                  €70
                                               34.4% compared to 8.6% for GNI*, the           recently downgrading its global growth         1,500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     €60
                                               former figure being grossly inflated by        forecast for the first time in two years                                                                                               38%
                                               a number of one-off re-domiciliations          due to ‘dangerous undercurrents’, the
                                                                                                                                             1,000,000                                         13%                                                   €50
                                               of intellectual property to Ireland in the     emerging complacency regarding the              500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     €40
FIGURE 1                                       aircraft leasing sector. Overall, between      elevated government debt position at
Government debt                                2013 and 2017, the economy grew by             this juncture is a cause for concern.                 0                                                  9%                                            €30

                                                                                                                                                            2005
                                                                                                                                                            2006
                                                                                                                                                            2007
                                                                                                                                                            2008
                                                                                                                                                            2009
                                                                                                                                                            2010
                                                                                                                                                            2011
                                                                                                                                                            2012
                                                                                                                                                            2013
                                                                                                                                                            2014
                                                                                                                                                            2015
                                                                                                                                                            2016
                                                                                                                                                            2017
                                                                                                                                                         Q3 2018
€Bn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      21%                            €20

€250        € GROSS GENERAL             180%                                                                                                 Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                           €10
            GOVERNMENT DEBT
            % DEBT-TO-GNI*              160%
                                                  KNIGHT FRANK VIEW ON RISK                                                                                                                            TMT
                                                                                                                                                                                                       PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     EDUCATION
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     STATE            €0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Q3 2018
            % DEBT-TO-GDP                                                                                                                                                                              PHARMA                        COWORKING
€200                                              Figures released by the Irish Venture       but masked in Q1 due to a couple of            Interestingly, there were also a number of                FINANCE                       OTHER
                                        140%
                                                  Capital Association have shown a sharp      large deals transacting. The number of         lettings that took place in the City Centre
                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: Knight Frank Research                           Source: Knight Frank Research
                                        120%      decline in venture capital funding to       deals taking place in the first six months     that are believed to be Brexit related.
€150                                              tech firms in the first half of the year.   declined from 141 to 89 while very             Following on from their announcement
                                        100%      The analysis shows that venture capital     early stage seed funding fell by 37% in        last year that it would be establishing        Top 5 office leasing transactions
                                                  funding fell by 9% in the first half of     the first half of the year. Although the       a presence in Dublin, Simmons and
                                        80%
                                                  the year to €453 million but that Q2        importance of the large tech firms to the      Simmons will take 5,306 sq ft at Esprit’s       Property                                            Tenant                    Sector                           Size (sq ft)
€100
                                        60%       volumes were down over 50% to €121          Dublin office market is well publicised,       Waterways House. They will be joined            One Grand Canal Quay, Dublin 2                      Google                    TMT                                58,000
                                                  million, down from €252 million the         the presence of a start-up community           by Standard & Poors who are taking
                                                                                                                                                                                             Three Dublin Airport Central, Co. Dublin            Kellogg’s                 Other                              39,008
 €50
                                        40%       previous year. While venture capital        is vital in developing a vibrant tech          4,967 sq ft at the same development
                                                  funding has expanded greatly over the       ecosystem in Dublin. It remains to be          – a move designed to ensure that the            5 Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin 2                       Biomarin                  Pharma                             25,863
                                        20%
                                                  last number of years, the organisation      seen whether this fall in funding is a         company continues to meet European                                                                                            Professional
                                                                                                                                                                                             3096 Lake Drive, Citywest, Dublin 24                DPS Group                                                    22,480
     0                                  0%        said that the figures bear out a            temporary lull in activity or signals the      Union regulations for rating agencies                                                                                         Services
                                                                                                                                             after Brexit. Finally, insurance group
         2000
         2001
         2002
         2003
         2004
         2005
         2006
         2007
         2008
         2009
         2010
         2011
         2012
         2013
         2014
         2015
         2016
         2017

                                                  softening in start-up funding which         start of a more serious tightening in an                                                       Red Oak, South County Business Park,                PLR Worldwide
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           TMT                                17,562
                                                  has been felt since the start of the year   important sector to the city’s economy.        Royal London and financial services             Dublin 18                                           Sales
Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                             firm DTCC were among the other Brexit          Source: Knight Frank Research

2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3
DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2018                                                                                         RESEARCH

DUBLIN 8                                                                                                                                                                                                                       CIT Y QUA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Y

    OFFICE LETTINGS                                                                                                                                                     OFFICE INVESTMENTS
     1. The Brunel Building                  2. 140 Thomas Street                    3. Fumbally Square                  4. 31-36 Golden Lane                           1. 1 & 2 HSQ                2. Fumbally Estate                        3. 1-3 High Street             4. The Chancery                                     5. 31-36 Golden Lane                              6. Adelaide Chambers
     Date: Q2 2018                           Date: Q2 2018                           Date: Q3 2018                       Date: Q2 2017                                  Date: Q1 2018               Date: Q3 2018                             Date: Q3 2018                  Date: Q4 2017                                       Date: Q2 2018                                     Date: Q2 2018
     Rent: €35.00 psf                        Rent: €40.00 psf                        Rent: €42.50 psf                    Rent: €47.00 psf                               Price: €176,000,000         Price: €33,500,000                        Price: €5,850,000              Price: €23,800,000                                  Price: €25,500,000                                Price: €7,230,000
     Take-up: 31,225 sq ft                                                                                                                                              Capital value: €806 psf     Capital value: €400 psf                   Capital value: €408 psf        Capital value: €689 psf                             Capital value: €823 psf                           Capital value: €398 psf
                                             Take-up: 5,974 sq ft                    Take-up: 10,370 sq ft               Take-up: 31,000 sq ft                                                      Initial yield: 5.7%
     Tenant: HSE                                                                                                                                                        Initial yield: 4.9%                                                   Initial yield: 3.9%            Initial yield: 5.8%                                 Initial yield: 5.3%                               Initial yield: 2.9%
                                             Tenant: Tibco                           Tenant: VSware                      Tenant: New Relic                                                          Buyer: BCP Asset Management
     Note: Lease assignment with                                                                                                                                        Buyer: CK Properties Ltd                                              Buyer: Private Irish           Buyer: Credit Suisse                                Buyer: KGAL                                       Buyer: Chartered Land
     three years remaining                                                                                                                                                                          Note: Includes four residential units
                                                                                                                                                                                                    and a development site

                                                                                               CONYNGHAM ROAD
                                                                               PHOENIX                                    THE CRIMINAL
                                                                                PARK                                        COURTS
                                                                                                                           OF JUSTICE
     OTHER NOTABLE                                                                                                                                                  B
        FUTURE
     DEVELOPMENTS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            D7
                                                                                                                                                        HEUSTON
                                                              CLANCY                                                                                    STATION                                VICTORIA QUAY
     A. Clancy Quay –                                          QUAY
     Phase 3
     Description: 246                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                USH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ER’S
                                                                                                                          SS
     residential units                                                                                           D   BYPA                                                                                                                                                     Q   UAY
                                                                                                           ELIZO                   1                                                               GUINNESS
     Status: Under construction                                                                       CHAP           2                                                                             BREWERY                                                                                                                                                         UA   Y
     Due Date: Q2 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      WOOD Q
                                                                                                                               1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      D2
     Owner: Kennedy Wilson                                                                                                                                     ST. PATRICK’S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            B RID GE ST
                                                              A                                                                                                 HOSPITAL        PEARSE LYONS
                                                                                                                                                                                                               DIGITAL HUB
                                                                                                                                                                                  WHISKEY
     B. Hickey Site                                                                                                                                                              DISTILLERY
     Description: Site with high-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     EE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           T
     density potential recently                                                                 IRISH MUSEUM                                                                                                                                THOMA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2                                                                                                                            CHRIST
     purchased by Chartered Land                                                               OF MODERN ART                                                                                                                                     S ST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        REE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3                                     CHURCH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            T                                                                                                               CATHEDRAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   NATIONAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   COLLEGE              4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   OF ART &
                                        SOUTH CIRCULAR ROAD

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    DESIGN                                            D
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3
     KILMAINHAM GAOL                                                                                                                               EET
                                                                                                                                               STR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           PATRICK STREET
                                                                                                                                        ES
                                                                                                                                    JA M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 45
                                                                           1
     C. National Children’s                                       OLD KILMAINHA M ROA
                                                                                     D
     Hospital                                                                                                                                                                                                              E LA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               NE
     Description: Total capital                                                                                                                                                                                         BON
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      OW                                                                                                                ST. PATRICK’S
     investment of €1 billion and                                                                                                                                                                                   RR                                                                                                                  CATHEDRAL
     extending to 1.7 million sq ft                                                                                                      ST. JAMES’S                                                              MA
                                                                                                               C                          HOSPITAL
     Status: Under construction                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6
     Due: 2021                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            KEV
                                                                  SOUTH C                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    IN S
                                                                          IRCULAR                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                TRE
                                                                                    ROAD                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       UP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         PE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           R
     D. Iveagh Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6
     Description: Lapsed planning
     permission for a 75,000 sq ft
     multi-function market and retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ET                                                      5
     centre along with a 97 room                                                                                                                                                                                   RE                                                                                                 7          23
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ST
     hotel and 83 aparthotel units                                                                                                                                                                           R K                                                 TEELING
                                                                                                                                                                                                           CO                                                    WHISKEY

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    DO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                DISTILLERY

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       NO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          RE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           AV
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             EN
                                                                                                                                   SOU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               UE
                                                                                                                                         TH
                                                                                                                                              CIR
                                                                                                                                                 CUL                                    THE COOMBE
                                                                                                                                                       AR

                                                                  D12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             T
                                                                                                                                                            ROA                          HOSPITAL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Y STREET
                                                                                     DO

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            EE
                                                                                       LP                                                                       D

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             R
                                                                                         HIN

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ST
    KEY                                                                                        RO

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     IL
                                                                                                  A
                                                                                           FUTURE
                                                                                               D  OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            HEYTESBUR
               EXISTING MODERN OFFICE BUILDINGS >10,000 SQ FT

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                BRA
               EXISTING STUDENT ACCOMODATION                                               1. 30 Old Kilmainham Road                              2. HSQ – Remaining                         3. St. James’s Gate 4. 61 Thomas Street                              5. Site 2, Newmarket Square                                         6. Newmarket Square                                        7. 55 Fumbally

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               CLA
               FUTURE STUDENT ACCOMODATION DEVELOPMENTS                                    Size: 40,000 sq ft                                     Size: 147,000 sq ft                        Size: 560,000 sq ft               Size: 13,000 sq ft                 Size: 80,000 sq ft                                                  Size: 90,000 sq ft                                         Size: 22,000 sq ft
               EXISTING HOTELS                                                             Status: Has planning                                   Status: Pipeline                           Status: Pipeline                  Status: Under construction         Status: Has planning                                                Status: Has planning                                       Status: Has planning
                                                                                           Due date: N/A                                          Due date: N/A                              Due date: 2023-2025               Due date: Q2 2019                  Due date: Q4 2020                                                   Due date: N/A                                              Due date: Q3 2020
               FUTURE HOTEL DEVELOPMENTS
                                                                                           Owner: The Comer Group                                 Owner: Marathon Asset Management           Owner: Diageo                     Owner: Oakmount                    Owner: UK Irish Consortium                                          Owner: Newmarket Partnership                               Owner: Oakmount
               LUAS TRAM LINE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Note: All areas and delivery times noted above are approximate estimates only and subject to change.

4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       5
DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2018                                          RESEARCH

Development market                                                                                                                                                                                                  AREA FOCUS: DUBLIN 8
                                                                                                                 granted approval to demolish College           represents another substantial purchase
                                                                                                                 House where they will be constructing          for Spear Street Capital following its
550,000 sq ft of new office space was                                                                            a new 157,600 sq ft office scheme.             acquisition of the Cherrywood Business
brought to the market in Q3 as a number                                                                                                                         Park last year for €145.0 million. The              It is hard to argue with the assessment that Dublin 8 has underperformed as an office
of new office buildings reached practical
completion. The largest of these was
                                                                                                                 Investment                                     deal ensured that US buyers accounted
                                                                                                                                                                for 44% of investor activity in the Dublin
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    location. Despite its central location adjoining Dublin 2, it has remained a fringe office location
                                                                                                                 €631.0 million worth of investment             office market with Irish buyers comprising
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    accounting for just 2.7% of total take-up between 2013 and 2017. However, there are signs
the Seamark Building at Elmpark Green
which comprises 182,500 sq ft and                                                                                transactions changed hands in Q3.              the remaining share with 8%.                        that the area’s fortunes are changing. In this Area Focus, we examine the dynamics at play in
was developed as a joint venture by                                                                              This represents an increase of 19% in
                                                                                                                                                                While the suburbs comprised only 16%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    this sub-market and evaluate its prospects for future growth as an office location.
Starwood Capital Group and Chartered                                                                             comparison to the same quarter last
                                                                                                                                                                of the market, there were a number of
Land. Elsewhere, 117,757 sq ft was                                                                               year. The year-to-date spend of €2.5
                                                                                                                                                                notable suburban transactions. This
delivered at 13-18 City Quay, a scheme                                                                           billion is almost double the amount that
                                                                                                                                                                included the PayPal occupied buildings
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    REGENERATION                                    brewery/distillery theme, and give tourists
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    cause to linger longer in Dublin 8. This
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Overflow from Dublin 2: Due to its
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  location on the edges of Dublin 2, the
pre-let to Grant Thornton and forward                                                                            transacted during the corresponding
                                                                                                                 period in 2017 when €1.3 billion
                                                                                                                                                                at Ballycoolin Business Park in Dublin              STORY                                           tourism factor is being supported by          area along Golden Lane and Christchurch
funded by Irish Life. Also located on                                                                                                                           15, which sold for €22.1 million at a net
                                                                                                                 transacted. Of the Q3 figure, the office                                                           While having a rich historical heritage         the opening of new hotel rooms, with          is benefiting from spillovers in occupier
the South Quays, IPUT were granted                                                                                                                              initial yield of 9.1%. Meanwhile, the Intreo
                                                                                                                 sector accounted for 42% or €266.9                                                                 dating back a thousand years to the very        2,594 rooms in the pipeline, of which         demand from the city core. The most
planning permission for a 75,000 sq ft                                                                                                                          tenanted Ninth Lock Road in Clondalkin
                                                                                                                 million. Dublin remains the primary                                                                foundation of Dublin near Christchurch,         725 are under construction. This will add     significant letting in Dublin 8 in the recent
office scheme at the former Tropical                                                                                                                            sold for €5.9 million with the deal                 Dublin 8’s evolution in the 20th Century        considerable capacity to the current stock    past occurred here, with New Relic
Fruit Warehouse at 30-32 Sir John                                                                                destination for this activity with a
                                                                                                                                                                representing a net initial yield of 5.1%.           saw it become characterised as an area          of 1,070 rooms, which includes the 137        taking 31,000 sq ft at 31-36 Golden Lane
Rogerson’s Quay. Finally, Marlet were                                                                            market share of 97% or €259.6 million.
                                                                                                                                                                Prime office yields in Dublin remain stable         of low density working class housing and        rooms recently opened at the Maldron on       for €47.00 psf in Q2 2017. The letting
                                                                                                                 Investment activity was focused on the         at 4.0%.                                            heavy industry.                                 Kevin Street.                                 represented the successful execution of
                                                                                                                 City Centre with 47% of transactions                                                                                                                                                             a value-add strategy by Mm Capital who
FIGURE 6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            This regeneration is supported by an
                                                                                                                 occurring in this location. In the IFSC,                                                           Times are changing however. As
Irish commercial investment                                                                                                                                     FIGURE 8                                                                                                                                          acquired the building in Q2 2017 before
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    illustrated in the map, there are a number      accommodative public policy stance, with
                                                                                                                 Hibernia REIT sold the Bank of Ireland                                                                                                                                                           refurbishing, letting and then disposing
volumes € million                                                                                                                                               Dublin office buyer and vendor source                                                               Dublin City Council locating six of its 18
                                                                                                                 tenanted New Century House – which                                                                 of ongoing regeneration projects across a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  it to German Investors KGAL for €25.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    range of uses that are helping to revitalise    ‘Strategic Development and Regeneration
5,000                                                                                                            was its first office acquisition following                                                                                                                                                       million, representing a net initial yield of
                                                                                                                                                                        EUROPE        US         IRELAND     UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dublin 8. In particular, regeneration is        Areas’ in Dublin 8, the highest of any
                                                                                                                 the initial public offering in 2013 – to                                                                                                                                                         5.3%. Nearby, Credit Suisse paid €23.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    being driven by the forces of housing           postcode. Meanwhile, the Government’s
                                                                                                                 Credit Suisse for €65.3 million, with the                                                                                                                                                        million for The Chancery in Q4 2017,
4,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    and tourism:                                    decision to locate the new €1 billion
                                                                                                                 deal representing a net initial yield of             BUYERS                                                                                                                                      representing a net initial yield of 5.8%.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    National Children’s Hospital next to the
                                                                                                                 4.0%. Credit Suisse also purchased the                                                             Housing: Government led regeneration                                                          Oakmount’s 61 Thomas Street is the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    existing St. James’s Hospital will double
3,000                                                                                                            Sharp Building for €56.3 million from The                                                                                                                                                        only new delivery of office stock due next
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    projects of old 1950’s built residential flat   the number of workers on campus. With
                                                                                                                 McGarrell Reilly Group for a net initial                                                                                                                                                         year in Dublin 8, with the quoting rent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    complexes (Fatima Mansions, Dolphin             two other existing hospitals in close
2,000                                                                                                            yield of 4.4%. Both of these transactions                                       VENDORS                                                                                                          of €45.00 psf representing a significant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    House and St Teresa’s Gardens) have             proximity, the area has the potential to
                                                                                                                 ensured that European investors were the                                                                                                                                                         discount on prime headline rents in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    helped address social problems in the           become a medical innovation hub.
                                                                                                                 most active source of capital in Dublin                                                                                                                                                          Dublin 2 of €62.50 psf.
1,000                                                                                                                                                                                                               area. This, combined with its proximity
                                                                                                                 comprising 48% of transactions in Q3.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    to the city centre, is seeing young                                                           Newmarket and Fumbally: Few areas of
                                                                                                                 The Fringe market accounted for 37% of                                                             professionals move to Dublin 8, a trend                                                       Dublin are witnessing such concentrated
     0
                                                                                                                 investment deals in the capital, supported                                                         facilitated by the significant delivery of      Strategic Development and
         2005
                2006
                       2007
                              2008
                                     2009
                                            2010
                                                   2011
                                                          2012
                                                                 2013
                                                                        2014
                                                                               2015
                                                                                      2016
                                                                                             2017
                                                                                                    Q3 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  and rapid development across a mix of
                                                                                                                 by the largest transaction of Q3 which                                                             PRS in the area. Clancy Quay is one of          Regeneration Areas in Dublin 8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  uses, with tourist, student housing, hotel
                                                                                                                 was the sale of the Belfield Office                                                                the largest such complexes in Ireland,                                                        and office developments all taking place
Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Heuston and Environs
                                                                                                                 Campus to US investors Spear Street                                                                while lands near the Coombe Hospital                                                          in close proximity. In terms of the latter,
                                                                                                                 Capital for €90.0 million. The transaction     Source: Knight Frank Research                       have the potential to deliver 1,000 new         St. Michael’s Estate                          170,000 sq ft of office space is due to
FIGURE 7                                                                                                                                                                                                            residential units, of which a substantial                                                     come on stream at Newmarket Square
Dublin prime office yields                                                                                                                                                                                          portion will also be PRS. Finally, Dublin       St. Teresa’s Gardens and Environs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  with a further 22,000 sq ft due at nearby
8%                                                                                                               Top 5 office investment transactions                                                               8 has also emerged as an area of                                                              55 Fumbally. The Fumbally Estate is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dolphin House
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    key importance for student housing                                                            the main standing office asset and was
7%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  St. James’s Hospital Campus
                                                                                                                 Property                                   Seller               Buyer             Approx. price    development, with 1,430 beds delivered                                                        recently sold for €33.5 million by M7
6%                                                                                                                                                                                                                  over the last two years and a further           and Environs                                  Real Estate to BCP Asset Management,
                                                                                                                                                            Colony               Spear Street
5%
                                                                                                                 The Bellfield Office Campus, Dublin 4                                                     €90.0m   2,040 in the pipeline, of which 887 are         Liberties and Newmarket Square                representing a net initial yield of 5.7%.
                                                                                                                                                            Capital              Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    under construction.                                                                           The Fumbally Estate was purchased by
4%
                                                                                                                 New Century House, IFSC, Dublin 1          Hibernia REIT        Credit Suisse             €65.3m                                                   Source: The Dublin City Development Plan      M7 Real Estate in Q1 2017 for €21.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Tourism: While Dublin 8 has always had          (2016-2022)
3%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                million for a net initial yield of 7.9%.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    a strong tourism offering – Kilmainham
                                                                                                                                                            The McGarrell
                                                                                                                 The Sharp Building, Dublin 2                                    Credit Suisse             €56.3m   Gaol, the Irish Museum of Modern Art,                                                         Heuston: The area around Heuston
2%
                                                                                                                                                            Reilly Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    the Guinness Storehouse – visitors to           DUBLIN 8 AS AN                                Station is of key importance in planning
1%
                                                                                                                 Buildings 2-5, Ballycoolin
                                                                                                                                                            Xerox                Confidential              €22.1m   Dublin 8 have tended to limit their visits      OFFICE LOCATION                               terms, and one of only four areas of
0%                                                                                                               Business Park, Dublin 15                                                                           to the main attractions and not strayed         Dublin 8 is a large postcode and, as the      the city designated for a height cluster
     2004
            2005
                   2006
                          2007
                                 2008
                                        2009
                                               2010
                                                      2011
                                                             2012
                                                                    2013
                                                                           2014
                                                                                  2015
                                                                                         2016
                                                                                                2017
                                                                                                       Q3 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    to explore the wider area. However, the         zones of activity make clear in the map,      (along with the Docklands, Connolly and
                                                                                                                 Ninth Lock Road, Clondalkin, Dublin 22     Varde                Private Irish             €5.9m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    opening of three new whiskey distilleries       there are four areas of interest from an      Georges Quay). This is reflective of the
Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                                    Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                      is designed to capitalise on the area’s         office perspective:                           Council’s view that developing an east-

6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            7
west commercial axis along the Liffey is                                            the tech industry, helping to realise the                                                                           RESEARCH
crucial to act as a counter weight to the                                           original ambitions for the Digital Hub.                                                                             John Ring, Head of Research
Docklands. Recent deals include the HSE                                             The site’s critical location in the heart of                                                                        +353 1 634 2466
taking an assignment of 31,225 sq ft at                                             Dublin 8 will also play a key role in helping                                                                       john.ring@ie.knightfrank.com
the Brunel Building for €35.00 psf, with                                            to link-up the currently disparate parts of                                                                         Robert O’Connor, Research Analyst
three years remaining on the lease. 1 HSQ                                           Dublin 8 by bringing HSQ closer to the                                                                              +353 1 634 2466
is currently on the market for sub-lease/                                           Digital Hub and Newmarket/Fumbally.                                                                                 robert.oconnor@ie.knightfrank.com
assignment by Eir for a rent of €40.00 psf,
                                                                                                                                                                                                        CAPITAL MARKETS
while 2 HSQ is believed to be reserved.
1+2 HSQ were purchased in Q1 by CK                                                  CONCLUDING                                                                                                          Adrian Trueick, Director

Properties for €176.0 million, representing                                         REMARKS                                                                                                             +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                        adrian.trueick@ie.knightfrank.com
the third largest office deal ever in the                                           While Dublin 8’s vacancy rate is currently at
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Peter Flanagan, Director
Dublin market. Other activity includes                                              7.1%, it drops to 3.6% when one excludes                                                                            +353 1 634 2466
Chartered Land’s purchase of the landmark                                           the 56,000 sq ft under reserve at 2 HSQ.                                                                            peter.flanagan@ie.knightfrank.com
Hickey site which has the capacity for a                                            That a building of modest size has such a
large mixed-use scheme.                                                                                                                                                                                 Ross Fogarty, Director
                                                                                    large impact on the vacancy rate illustrates                                                                        +353 1 634 2466
St. James’s Gate: This mixed-use                                                    that the office market in Dublin 8 is very                                                                          ross.fogarty@ie.knightfrank.com
development has the potential to be                                                 thinly spread. By having the potential to
a game changer for Dublin 8. With an                                                expand Dublin 8’s office stock by a third in                                                                        OFFICES
estimated delivery of up to 560,000 sq                                              one location, it also illustrates the important                                                                     Declan O’Reilly, Director
                                                                                    role that the St. James’s Gate scheme will                                                                          +353 1 634 2466
ft of office space slated from 2023, the
                                                                                                                                                                                                        declan.oreilly@ie.knightfrank.com
site will bring critical mass and scalability                                       have in deepening the Dublin 8 market
to Dublin 8, enabling it to compete with                                            and tying together its currently disparate                                                                          Paul Hanly, Director
more established office locations in Dublin                                         parts. While the lack of stock is holding                                                                           +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                        paul.hanly@ie.knightfrank.com
by becoming an occupier location in its                                             take-up levels back, investors are clearly
own right. It is expected that the project’s                                        bullish on Dublin 8’s future prospects as                                                                           Jim O’Reilly, Director
historic setting in the home of one of the                                          evidenced by the variety of investment                                                                              +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                        jim.oreilly@ie.knightfrank.com
world’s iconic brands will ensure that                                              funds deploying capital across a range of
occupier demand will be very strong from                                            uses in the postcode.                                                                                               Gavin Maguire, Associate Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                        +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                        gavin.maguire@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mark Headon, Associate Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                        +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                        mark.headon@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                        David Reddy, Associate Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                        +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                        david.reddy@ie.knightfrank.com

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