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Drones
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
10TH YEAR ON THE LIST
Drones
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES
Companies now use drones for mapping
Drones have seen and inspections in agriculture, mining,
unprecedented market and construction. Drones inspect dan-
gerous and hard-to-reach places such as
growth and rapid
chemical weapons plants and erupting
adoption across various volcanoes. The emergence of COVID-19
industries, thanks to and racial injustice protests accelerat-
ed the already-fast adoption of drone
lower costs, easier technology. Last year, UPS, CVS, and
manufacturing, and drone tech company Matternet launched
their effectiveness in a drone delivery pilot program that al-
lowed Florida residents to shelter in place
a wide range of use and receive medical deliveries including
cases. documents and blood samples. Contro-
versially, government and citizen drones
also tracked protesters and police during
widespread marches for social justice,
and monitored social distancing amid the
pandemic in places including New York,
Paris, Mumbai, and China.
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of drones.
42 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
Drones continued
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT a constellation of AI-powered cameras, EMERGING PLAYERS
The use of drones allows us to work biometric recognition systems, airborne • Zipline
outside the limitations of the human unmanned vehicles, lidar, and mobile
• Anduril
body in a very cost-effective way. We’ll phone monitoring systems, to create
likely see a wave of mergers and acqui- a “smart wall” that conducts detailed • Terra Drone
sitions among flight service providers, surveillance, primarily for use at the • Hemav
hardware startups, drone and aircraft Texas-Mexico border. The bill stalled
• Matternet
manufacturers, asset and flight path in committee, but in the wake of recent
management software makers, and data public unrest, there’s renewed interest—
processing platforms. The growing and now, better technology—to make
sector may give rise to a new “drones-as- the proposal a reality.
a-service” business model akin to the car
and scooter sharing industry, delivering
access to drones without the interven-
tion of specially trained experts. We’ll
also see more government uses, includ-
ing identifying terrorists and monitoring
immigration. In 2017, U.S. Rep. Will
Hurd (R-Texas) proposed the Secure
Miles with All Resources and Technolo-
gy (SMART) Act, which would employ
Agricultural drones can manage crop health from the air.
43 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
5TH YEAR ON THE LIST
Drone Swarms
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES Civilian applications include dazzling
The U.S. Army is developing a Cluster light shows and dynamic aerial artwork.
Drone swarms, or fleets UAS Smart Munition for Missile Deploy- Disney and Intel are creating a new type
of light show that uses 300 drones with
of networked drones ment that would allow a swarm of small
drones to fan out and destroy vehicles multicolored lights that fly in unison at
capable of coordinated with “explosively formed penetrators,” Disney World.
operations and com- or EFPs. The U.S. Navy Office of Naval
munication, are being Research intends to launch a swarm of
Coyote drones, made by U.S. military
developed for military
contractor Raytheon, for intelligence,
operations, surveil- reconnaissance, and potentially weapon-
lance, and other com- ry. Turkey has deployed Kargu tactical
plex functions without kamikaze drones on the Syrian border
via remote pilots. In October, China
human interaction. In a conducted a test launch of 48 “suicide”
drone swarm, the col- drones from a truck and helicopter. This
lective functionality of follows a number of other larger swarm-
drone experiments by the country in
the overall network be- 2017. The U.S. Army plans to build an
comes more important autonomous charging system that swarm
than each individual drones could fly to for charging before
redeployment. The Army is also working
300 unmanned drones performed aerial formations and light shows during the rehearsal for Singapore
National Day Parade in 2017.
drone, and the group of on a giant recharging drone called the
drones can “learn” and Joint Tactical Aerial Resupply Vehicle,
adapt synergistically. which is also intended to serve swarms.
44 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
Drones Swarms continued
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
Swarms of drones would allow a single • U.S. Navy Office of Naval Research
delivery truck to service a full neigh- • U.K. Defence Science and Technology
borhood or multiple drones to work Laboratory
together in the manner of a school of
fish. Ideally, future swarms will use what • China Electronics Technology Group
Nora Ayanian, a roboticist at University
of Southern California, calls “leveraging
diversity in the control policy,” in which
each drone is programmed slightly dif-
ferently so that the one best suited to the
task teaches the rest of the swarm how
to act. This could make drones more
robust in unstructured and uncertain en-
vironments, such as in disaster response,
environmental monitoring, and military
applications.
Drone swarms fan out to automatically amd work as a team to accomplish goals.
45 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
2ND YEAR ON THE LIST
Drone Fleets
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
The pandemic accelerated drone-delivery Amazon has also filed patents for inter- • Amazon
Fleets of drones certification approvals, as many con- esting drone-fleet logistics, including a • Google’s Wing
operating as air sumers avoided brick-and-mortar stores. gigantic beehive-like structure, where
Amazon received U.S. Federal Aviation drones would dock and receive packages, • UPS
carriers will begin
Administration clearance last year to be- and a laundry chute system attached to • FedEx
making package gin making commercial deliveries under houses where packages would drop safe- • Walgreens
deliveries soon. a trial program. Amazon joined UPS and ly and tumble down to customers.
• CVS
Google as companies certified to make
autonomous deliveries. Google’s Wing,
partnering with Walgreens and FedEx,
began its tests last year. UPS now flies
medical supplies between buildings on a
Raleigh, N.C., hospital campus.
Amazon’s patent for a multilevel urban hive.
46 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
3RD YEAR ON THE LIST
Cognitive Active Safety Features
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
Netradyne makes AI-powered dash Vehicle manufacturers will continue to • Netradyne
Car manufacturers, cameras that monitor real-time road implement and tout active safety features • Driveri
seeking to meet conditions to reduce accidents. Compa- to attract safety-minded consumers, with
nies can use the technology inside fleet software representing the next wave of • Comma.ai
consumer preferences,
vehicles to monitor driving behavior advances. Car manufacturer develop- • Tesla
are quickly adopting and teach commercial drivers how to ment cycles, historically occurring over a
proactive safety be safer and more efficient drivers. 10 year span, will accelerate as platforms
Comma.ai created Openpilot, an open- become increasingly software-driven.
functions that also source software driver assistance system
provide the building that uses a $1,200 camera and develop-
blocks for full ment kit that allows people to trans-
form their cars so they steer, accelerate
autonomous driving. and brake automatically, as with Tesla’s
Autopilot. Comma.ai works with a
large variety of car models and man-
ufacturers via a customized Android
cell phone mounted to the windshield
and connected to the vehicle’s existing
adaptive cruise control hardware.
Increasingly advanced safety features are laying the
foundation for autonomous vehicles.
47 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
3RD YEAR ON THE LIST
Autonomous Last Mile Delivery
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
Nuro, a startup founded by former A study from the World Economic • Nuro
Autonomous delivery Google engineers, is developing auton- Forum found that rising demand in • Refraction AI
is becoming more omous vehicles for last-mile deliveries, e-commerce will lead to a 36% increase
including take-out, groceries, laundry, in delivery vehicles in the largest 100 • Cenntro Automotive Group
common, driven in
and packages. JD.com has autonomously global cities by 2030, and last-mile • Arrival
part by an increased delivered more than 13,000 packages, delivery will spike 78%. The first widely • Rivian
desire for contactless traveling 6,900 kilometers in lockdown deployed autonomous vehicles likely
environments. Cenntro Automotive won’t be transporting humans but rather
interactions brought Group’s CityPorter electric vehicle will familiar goods—like pizza. These sorts of
about by the soon make urban deliveries, while Gen- autonomous deliveries will continue to
pandemic. Delivery is eral Motors launched a new last-mile gain momentum as a reliable, data-rich,
delivery business called BrightDrop. and cost-effective solution for last-mile
an ideal testing and transportation with the potential to
development ground improve customer experiences. These
relatively low-stakes deliveries will
for autonomous socialize autonomous technology in
vehicles, as the hurdles everyday society, easing the transition to
for safely transporting autonomous vehicle systems for trans-
porting people.
food are lower than
Starship Technologies uses robots to deliver food those for safely
and drinks to George Mason University students.
transporting humans.
48 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
5TH YEAR ON THE LIST
Air Lanes
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration Regulators have an opportunity to pre- • U.S. Federal Aviation Administration
The proliferation of has updated its Part 135 certification pro- empt congestion, ensure safety, manage • International Civil Aviation
drones will lead to more cess for package deliveries by drone and is community perception, ensure privacy Organization
creating new regulation for air safety and and learn from road and air travel if they
aviation guidelines, in- • European Union Aviation
industry guidelines. UPS Flight Forward proactively create aerial infrastructure
cluding “air lanes” that was the first to receive a Standard Part 135 along with key stakeholders. Cities and Safety Agency
will guide low-flying air- air carrier certificate to operate a drone states will then need to develop regulation • Civil Aviation Administration of China
aircraft in 2019. The FAA is now working to ensure interoperability of drone lanes.
craft, both piloted and with industry as well as state, local, and
• South African Civil Aviation Authority
autonomous. Where tribal governments to inform future rules • Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore
and when these new and regulations.
The FAA’s new BEYOND program will
aircraft can operate will develop and scale drone delivery opera-
significantly impact the tions, establishing rules for infrastructure
built and natural envi- inspection and public operations. The
program will also gather data and commu-
ronment, and managing nity feedback on the social and economic
the number of flying benefits of drones. Vodafone and Ericsson
will work together to prove how safe
drones will be important
flight path corridors can be created within
Proactive planning can help avoid an aerial overload. to ensure safety and existing cellular network coverage. Using
Image credit: Flightradar24.
noise pollution. network traffic data ensures that autono-
mous drones avoid areas of poor network
coverage to guarantee connectivity from
departure to destination.
49 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
4TH YEAR ON THE LIST
Flying Taxis
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
In 2021, Cadillac introduced a vertical Most designs use electric engines that • European Organisation for the Safety
Compact, unmanned take-off and landing (eVTOL) personal allow for vertical landing and takeoff of Air Navigation
electric aircraft air taxi. It’s General Motors’ first foray in urban spaces, enable short- to me- • New Zealand government
into the increasingly crowded aerial dium-distance trips, and rely on both
have moved beyond • EHang
mobility space. Hyundai, Aston Martin, piloted and autonomous formats. NASA
the concept stage, and other carmakers announced plans Ames Research Center and the U.S.
and now a flurry of to build their own eVTOL aircraft. But Federal Aviation Administration are
there have been setbacks: A fire inside a currently working to create regulations
prototype tests at hangar destroyed a prototype by Ger- for safety and air traffic control. The
companies worldwide many-based Lilium; Boeing’s Aurora result could be hundreds of thousands
could open the door Flight Sciences prototype crashed; and of delivery drones and air taxis flying
Kitty Hawk’s one-person vehicle, Flyer, in urban and suburban airspace, open-
General Motors debuted its concept eVTOL in 2021.
for autonomous air suffered fires involving batteries, electric ing up a new medium of travel for the
travel services to take motors, and wiring. mainstream passenger and impacting
transit design, congestion, and travel
individuals and small times. The high rate of crashes in the
groups short distances. helicopter travel industry, including
the high-profile fatal crash of Kobe and
Gianna Bryant and seven other people in
2020, highlights the need for increased
safety in this burgeoning area.
50 © 2021 Future Today Institute00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
4TH YEAR ON THE LIST
Follow-Me Autonomously
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
Many photo- and video-enabled con- The ability to automatically avoid crash- • DJI
“Follow-me” sumer drones available today have “fol- es and reroute around obstacles greatly • Skydio
functionality, whereby low-me” and crash-avoidance function- increases a drone’s safety and versatility.
ality, enabling semi-autonomous flight, Autonomous conflict avoidance and • Yuneec
a drone is able to
where a subject is kept in the frame of follow-me functionality reduce stress
detect and pursue a the camera without the need for a des- and sensory demand on the remote pilot,
moving subject, has ignated pilot. This is ideal for capturing making indoor flight easier and expand-
solo activities like skiing, surfing, and ing the range of circumstances in which
burst onto the scene dance. Most of these drones rely on GPS drones can be safely operated.
in personal drones transmitter technology or recognition
for photography and software, such as DJI ActiveTrack.
videography, but it has
potential applications
in a range of settings
and situations.
Follow-me functionality allows drone operators to
capture the moment without worrying about piloting.
51 © 2021 Future Today Institute00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
3RD YEAR ON THE LIST
Inspection Drones
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
Drone inspections are being performed Increasingly frequent extreme weather • Carnegie Mellon University
As natural disasters in almost every industry that requires events will further strain infrastructure. • Neurala
and extreme weather visual inspections, in the aftermath of As civil aviation authorities grant new
a weather event or as part of routine certifications to allow flights beyond • Optelos
events become more
maintenance. Drones can capture visual the visual line of sight, drones will gain • PowerVision Robots
common, drones data more safely than humans can— access to remote gas pipelines, power
will help with the and AI systems process those data in lines, and other areas that are often only
real time. Carnegie Mellon University reachable by dangerous backroads.
rapid inspection and researchers are developing an AI system
interpretation of that will review amateur drone footage
critical infrastructure. of damage from 2020’s Hurricane Laura
so that it can perform rapid damage
assessments in the future. The system
would automatically identify buildings
and offer preliminary damage assess-
ments, increasing situational awareness
and significantly reducing cost and
human labor.
Drones can inspect infrastructure in places that are
too dangerous for humans.
52 © 2021 Future Today Institute00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
4TH YEAR ON THE LIST
Autonomous Underwater Vehicles
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
The U.S. Navy first developed underwa- Underwater drones are changing the • Blueye Robotics
Drones aren’t just ter drones, and such devices were used to business dynamics of marine construc- • Geneinno
for air and land. discover the wreck of the Titanic in 1985. tion, potentially increasing underwater
Modern drones are far more advanced. land usage. The potential of improved • Youcan Robot
Underwater drones Today’s autonomous underwater vehicles underwater surface mapping could also • Notilo Plus
have been around are used to disable mines; to explore for
cut the costs of laying the transatlantic
oil and gas drilling; to inspect nets; to feed
since the 1950s, and stock fisheries; and to reduce costs for cables that serve as the backbone of the
monitoring, building, and maintaining internet, enabling increased competition
but in recent years and connectivity. Military autonomous
underwater assets. General Dynamics’
the technology has Bluefin-21 drone is known for its 2014 underwater vehicles could be used in
improved dramatically search for the wreckage from Malaysia both offensive and defensive capacities
Airlines Flight 370. Boeing’s Echo Voyag- including intelligence, network infra-
due to better batteries, er is the largest autonomous underwater structure, port security, and more.
low-light high- vehicle, weighing 100,000 pounds, and
it can also go the deepest. Boeing and
definition cameras, Huntington Ingalls Industries are now
and lighter control developing the Orca drone submarine,
designed for military combat, surveil-
boxes and sensors. lance, and minesweeping. Lockheed
Autonomous vehicles could significantly help to
Martin’s Marlin can create 3D models of
maintain and inspect underwater structures.
its surrounding environment in real time.
The navies of France, Japan, Russia, and
China, meanwhile, are developing their
own underwater technologies. Under-
water drones have even become popular
among consumer hobbyists and can be
53 purchased online for $500 to $3,000.
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