Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment Market Feasibility Study - September 2018 - Canton, MA
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Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment
Market Feasibility Study
September 2018
Prepared for:
Town of Canton, MA
Town Hall
801 Washington Street
Canton, MA 02021
120 West Avenue, Suite 303
Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
518.899.2608
www.camoinassociates.com
About Camoin Associates Camoin Associates has provided economic development consulting services to municipalities, economic development agencies, and private enterprises since 1999. Through the services offered, Camoin Associates has had the opportunity to serve EDOs and local and state governments from Maine to California; corporations and organizations that include Lowes Home Improvement, FedEx, Volvo (Nova Bus) and the New York Islanders; as well as private developers proposing projects in excess of $600 million. Our reputation for detailed, place-specific, and accurate analysis has led to projects in 30 states and garnered attention from national media outlets including Marketplace (NPR), Forbes magazine, and The Wall Street Journal. Additionally, our marketing strategies have helped our clients gain both national and local media coverage for their projects in order to build public support and leverage additional funding. We are based in Saratoga Springs, NY, with regional offices in Portland, ME; Boston, MA; Richmond, VA; and Brattleboro, VT. To learn more about our experience and projects in all of our service lines, please visit our website at www.camoinassociates.com. You can also find us on Twitter @camoinassociate and on Facebook. The Project Team Jim Damicis Principal Tom Dworetsky Project Manager Anna Winslow Analyst
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Project Overview............................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Market Potential ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Rezoning Recommendation.......................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Fiscal Impact Analysis .....................................................................................................................................................................................10
Appendix A. Community Profile................................................................................................................................................................. 14
Appendix B. Market Trends Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 26
Appendix C. Esri Tapestry Segments ........................................................................................................................................................ 55
Appendix D. What is Fiscal Impact Analysis? ......................................................................................................................................... 57
Appendix E. Fiscal Impact Analysis Detailed Tables ............................................................................................................................. 58
Table of Tables
Table 1: Existing vs. Recommended Uses ................................................................................................................................................... 2
Table 2: Annual Property Tax Revenue ........................................................................................................................................................ 3
Table 3: Net Impact of Buildout ...................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Table 4: Existing vs. Recommended Site Buildout ................................................................................................................................... 9
Table 5: Existing vs. Recommended Uses .................................................................................................................................................10
Table 6: Residents and Public-School-Age Children ............................................................................................................................10
Table 7: Estimated Assessed Value ..............................................................................................................................................................11
Table 8: Change over Baseline from Site Buildout ................................................................................................................................11
Table 9: Annual Property Tax Revenue ......................................................................................................................................................12
Table 10: Summary of Net New Revenues from Buildout ..................................................................................................................12
Table 11: Summary of New Expenses from Buildout ...........................................................................................................................13
Table 12: Net Impact of Buildout .................................................................................................................................................................13
Table 13: Net Impact of Residential Component ...................................................................................................................................13
Table 14: Demographic Profile, 2017 ..........................................................................................................................................................15
Table 15: Demographic Profile, 2010 ..........................................................................................................................................................15
Table 16: Demographic Profile, Percent Change 2010 - 2017 ..........................................................................................................15
Table 17: Population Change, 2010 - 2022 ..............................................................................................................................................16
Table 18: Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2017 .........................................................................................................................................17
Table 19: Income Distribution, 2017 ...........................................................................................................................................................18
Table 20: Educational Attainment of Population 25+, 2017..............................................................................................................20
Table 21: School Enrollment, 2013-2018 ...................................................................................................................................................20
Table 22: School Rankings, 2017 ..................................................................................................................................................................21
Table 23: Where Canton Workers Live, 2015 ...........................................................................................................................................22
Table 24: Where Canton Residents Work, 2015 .....................................................................................................................................22
Table 25: Property Tax Rates for Canton and Surrounding Massachusetts Communities ....................................................23
Table 26: Town of Canton, 2-Digit Industries ..........................................................................................................................................24
Table 27: Employers with 250+ Workers, Town of Canton ................................................................................................................25
Table 28: Housing Tenure, Canton ..............................................................................................................................................................28
Table 29: Housing Tenure, HMA ...................................................................................................................................................................28
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study
Table 30: Housing Tenure Comparison, 2017 .........................................................................................................................................28
Table 31: Housing by Units in Structure, 2015 ........................................................................................................................................29
Table 32: Housing by Year Built, 2015 ........................................................................................................................................................29
Table 33: 2015 Home Values, Owner-Occupied Units .........................................................................................................................30
Table 34: Rent, 2016 ..........................................................................................................................................................................................30
Table 35: Residential Building Permits .......................................................................................................................................................31
Table 36: Age 55+ Population Growth, HMA ..........................................................................................................................................33
Table 37: Job Growth in the Senior Care Industry, HMA ....................................................................................................................33
Table 38: Age Distribution...............................................................................................................................................................................34
Table 39: Households by Income and Age of Householder, HMA, 2017 .....................................................................................36
Table 40: Households by Income and Age of Householder, HMA, 2022 .....................................................................................36
Table 41: Households by Income and Age of Householder, Canton, 2017.................................................................................38
Table 42: Households by Income and Age of Householder, Canton, 2022.................................................................................38
Table 43: Major Shopping Centers in Proximity of Draper Site .......................................................................................................41
Table 44: Retail Trade Area - Demographic Profile ...............................................................................................................................41
Table 45: Median Household Income, Retail Trade Area....................................................................................................................42
Table 46: Top Esri Tapestry Segments, Retail Trade, Area, 2017 .....................................................................................................44
Table 47: Retail Leakage/Surplus Factor by Industry, Local Trade Area .......................................................................................46
Table 48: Supportable Retail - Draper Site Local Trade Area ............................................................................................................47
Table 49: Q1 2018 Office Statistics ..............................................................................................................................................................50
Table 50: Office-Utilizing Industries, 128 South Office Submarket.................................................................................................51
Table 51: Office-Utilizing Industries, Town of Canton .........................................................................................................................52
Table 52: Self-Employed Jobs in Office-Utilizing Industries ..............................................................................................................52
Table 53: Manufacturing Employment .......................................................................................................................................................53
Table 54: Manufacturing Share of Economy, 2017................................................................................................................................54
Table 55: Assessed Value Variable Expenses ...........................................................................................................................................58
Table 56: Population Variable Expenses ....................................................................................................................................................58
Table 57: Public School-Age Children Variable Expenses...................................................................................................................59
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Images from Draper Mill Lofts Marketing Brochure (Source: Castles Commercial) ................................................ 5
Figure 2: Map: Study Areas .............................................................................................................................................................................14
Figure 3: Age Distribution, 2017 ...................................................................................................................................................................17
Figure 4: Income Distribution, 2017 ............................................................................................................................................................19
Figure 5: Canton Commuter Inflow/Outflow ...........................................................................................................................................22
Figure 6: Housing Market Area Map ...........................................................................................................................................................27
Figure 7: Projected Change in Population by Age, 2017-2022 ........................................................................................................35
Figure 8: Change in Households by Age and Income, 2017-2022, HMA .....................................................................................37
Figure 9: Change in Households by Age and Income, 2017-2022, Canton.................................................................................39
Figure 10: Local Retail Trade Area, Town of Canton, and Major Shopping Centers ................................................................40
Figure 11: Age Distribution, Retail Trade Area ........................................................................................................................................42
Figure 12: Income Distribution, Retail Trade Area, 2017.....................................................................................................................43
Figure 13: Canton Traffic Count Map..........................................................................................................................................................48
Figure 14: Map – 128 South Office Market Area ....................................................................................................................................49
Figure 15: Norwood Space Center ...............................................................................................................................................................54
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study
Executive Summary
The Town of Canton has been awarded a Planning Assistance Grant to study the feasibility of adaptively reusing the
historic Draper Knitting Company site. Parts of the site are currently underutilized and offer potential for creating a
unique multi-use district with a mix of programming and uses. The objective of this study is to determine whether
such a district could be viable given current market conditions in Canton and the region, while evaluating the fiscal
impacts of redevelopment on the Town. The project consisted of the following tasks:
Analysis of market potential of the site, including data analysis, a site tour, and interviews with local real
estate and economic development professionals
Public workshop to present market analysis findings and gather public input on appropriate uses for the site
Fiscal impact analysis to determine the impacts of various use types on Town revenues and expenses
Rezoning recommendations based on findings from the above tasks
Key Market Opportunities
The following strengths and challenges were identified for the site and evaluated in the context of regional and local
real estate market trends to arrive at recommendations for rezoning the site:
Strengths Challenges
Desirable community to live in Community wariness of further residential
Strong local and regional economy development
High incomes and spending power Traffic and congestion
Affordable real estate relative to Boston Aging population
Historic buildings and idyllic setting Isolation from other commercial uses
Structurally sound buildings Transportation challenges
Existing tenant mix Cost of rehabilitation
Space for parking
The strength of the Canton market for various property types combined with the unique nature of the Draper site
points to a one-of-a-kind opportunity for a mixed-use development project rooted in the site’s industrial history.
Zoning allowing for a development scenario that builds on the current light industrial mix, with supporting office
and meeting space, small warehouse/storage space, creative/industrial arts space, food/recreation/entertainment,
and a modest residential component targeted toward on-site workers has the potential to bring a new kind of
“place” to Canton. This could be achieved by a combination of adaptive reuse of existing buildings, particularly
those with historic value, and new construction. Such a project would create value for the community that is greater
than the sum of its parts.
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 1
Rezoning Recommendation
We recommend that the site be rezoned to allow for a mixed-use district that permits the following general use
types:
Light industrial, including light manufacturing, assembly, small-scale warehousing and storage
Office, including coworking, meeting, and event space
Retail, including shops, restaurants/cafés, personal and business services, recreational and entertainment
amenities
Multifamily residential, both rental and for-sale, including apartments, townhomes, and live-work units; may
include a senior living and/or affordable component
Educational/community uses, including library or educational space, recreational space, and other civic uses
In general, we recommend that any new development on the site be kept to the current developed/cleared area and
not significantly extended into the remaining forested area on the site. Lot coverage of the cleared area should be
50% to allow for enough density to create the look and feel of a mixed-use district while balancing the need for
complementary open space. We recommend an average building height of 2.5 floors, with a mix of primarily two-
and three-story buildings. Buildings should be arranged in a way that promotes the cohesiveness of the district and
encourages pedestrian activity between various use types, with parking relegated to the perimeter of the site. An
illustrative example of the recommended scale and mix of development is shown in the following table. We
recommend a mix of approximately 75% nonresidential and 25% residential development.
Table 1: Existing vs. Recommended Uses
Existing vs. Recommended Uses
Existing Recommended
Use Type
GSF % GSF % Units
Commercial - 0% 163,350 30% X
Industrial 350,000 100% 190,575 35% X
Community - 0% 54,450 10% X
Total Non-Residential - 0% 408,375 75% X
Residential - 0% 136,125 25% 90
Total 350,000 100% 544,500 100% X
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 2
Fiscal Impact
The recommended buildout would result in an as-complete assessed value of nearly $90 million and net new annual
property tax revenue to the Town of $1.77 million. This assessed value would represent a 25-fold increase over the
current assessed value of the property.
Table 2: Annual Property Tax Revenue
Annual Property Tax Revenue
Tax Rate % of Total
Taxable Annual Tax
per Property Tax
Assessed Value Revenue
$1,000AV Revenue
Commercial $ 32,670,000 $ 25.86 $ 844,846 45%
Industrial $ 22,869,000 $ 25.86 $ 591,392 32%
Community $ - $ - $ - 0%
Total Non-Residential $ 55,539,000 $ 1,436,239 77%
Residential* $ 34,031,250 $ 12.42 $ 422,668 23%
Total $ 89,570,250 $ 1,858,907 100%
Existing Property $ 3,613,900 $ 25.86 $ 93,455 --
Net Change $ 85,956,350 $ 1,765,451 --
Considering both revenues and expenses, and net of current fiscal impacts of the site, the impact of the buildout
scenario is estimated to be positive, at $1.46 million per year. Currently, the site has a net positive impact of about
$81,000 annually on the Town budget. Both residential and nonresidential uses in the buildout scenario are
projected to have a net positive impact. 1
Table 3: Net Impact of Buildout
Net Impact of Buildout
Buildout Scenario (Net of Current)
Current
Nonresidential Residential Total
Total Revenues $ 93,455 $ 1,648,618 $ 449,465 $ 2,098,084
Total Expenses $ (12,897) $ (190,213) $ (444,551) $ (634,764)
Net Impact $ 80,558 $ 1,458,405 $ 4,914 $ 1,463,319
Revenues per Taxable SF $ 0.27 $ 4.66 $ 3.30 $ 4.28
Expenses per Taxable SF $ (0.04) $ (0.54) $ (3.27) $ (1.30)
Net Impact per Taxable SF $ 0.23 $ 4.12 $ 0.04 $ 2.99
1 Note that residential impacts were calculated using the most conservative demographic multipliers available for estimating the
number of new residents and public schoolchildren. Using “average” multiplier values would show an increased net benefit for
residential development. These impacts are detailed in the Fiscal Impact Analysis section of this report and in Appendix E.
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 3
Project Overview
The Town of Canton has been awarded a Planning Assistance Grant to study the feasibility of adaptively reusing the
historic Draper Knitting Company site. Parts of the site are currently underutilized and offer potential for creating a
unique multi-use district with a mix of programming and uses. The objective of this study is to determine whether
such a district could be viable given current market conditions in Canton and the region, while evaluating the fiscal
impacts of redevelopment on the Town.
Draper Knitting Company Site
The subject site is located at 28 Draper
Lane, just north of Washington Street
between Chapman and Dedham streets in
the western part of Canton. The John F.
Kennedy School borders the site to the
north. Primarily single-family residential
properties bound the site to the west,
south, and east, with a wooded wetlands
buffer separating off the property to the
north and west. The parcel is 30.9 acres in
area, approximately half of which is
currently developed. The property is zoned
for industrial use and served by Town water
and sewer.
Buildings on the site date from between
1830 and 1970, and are generally in good
structural condition. Across the 34 buildings
comprising the property, there is
approximately 350,000 square feet of
habitable space. Of that space, 150,000
square feet is occupied by the Draper
Knitting Company, 50,000 square feet is
rented to a mix of other tenants, and
150,000 square feet is vacant. Tenants
include light manufacturing, fabrication,
and assembly businesses, as well as service-
oriented businesses and storage space.
The property is currently listed for lease and marketed as Draper Mill Lofts. 2 According to the property listing, office
/ industrial / flex spaces ranging from 2,000 SF to 350,000 SF (the entire site) are available in the $3-$12 per SF
range. Individual spaces can be custom designed, renovated, or left as is.
2 Castles Commercial
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 4
Figure 1: Images from Draper Mill Lofts Marketing Brochure (Source: Castles Commercial)
Market Potential
The market analysis involved a review of prior reports and existing materials, analysis of economic trends (past and
projected), real estate market research, and interviews with regional industry and market experts to obtain further
data on the real estate market and overall economic trends.
Key findings from the market research are summarized below. Detailed results of the research and analysis can be
found in the appendices of this report.
Strengths to Leverage
The Town of Canton and the Draper site have numerous strengths that can be leveraged to achieve redevelopment
of the site.
Community Strengths
Desirable community to live in. Canton is known for its recreational and cultural assets, excellent schools, and high
quality of life. Moreover, its proximity and accessibility to employment centers in Boston/Cambridge, the Rt. 128
corridor, and Providence, make it a desirable location for residents. Canton’s two commuter rail stations make for a
convenient commute. About 89% of Canton residents commute out of Canton for work.
Strong local and regional economy. A robust economy both regionally and locally, combined with a pro-business
reputation makes Canton a desirable place to conduct business. The town has a diverse and growing economy with
an educated workforce. The number of jobs in town increased 5% over the last ten years and is projected to increase
by 10% by 2027. Over half of residents hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, and 22% hold a graduate-level degree.
High incomes and spending power. Businesses relying on consumer spending are attracted to Canton by its high
incomes (median income of $101,000) and substantial concentration of population and households across the age
spectrum. The town’s population is about 23,000, with a median age of 43.8.
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 5
Affordable real estate relative to Boston. While the cost of living and doing business in Canton is high relative to
national standards, the town is affordable compared to Boston’s urban core. Home values and rents (both
residential and commercial) are significantly less expensive than Boston.
Site Strengths
Historic buildings and idyllic setting. The site’s collection of historic buildings from different eras, if adapted
appropriately, would lend character to a future redevelopment project. Moreover, the wooded surroundings of the
site present opportunities to integrate nature with the built environment. Few other sites in Canton offer this
combination of historic and natural features.
Structurally sound buildings. Though significant rehabilitation could be needed depending on how certain
structures are ultimately reused, the bones of the buildings are generally robust.
Existing tenant mix. Unlike many other historic mills across New England, the Draper site is currently in use and has
a growing list of tenants beyond the Draper Knitting Company itself. The existing community of manufacturers and
makers onsite is likely to attract further complementary uses, while providing a built-in customer base for any future
customer-oriented businesses.
Space for parking. Any future development on site will be largely reliant on access by automobile. Fortunately,
there is adequate space to accommodate parking as needed.
Hurdles to Overcome
The following obstacles present challenges for successful redevelopment of the Draper site.
Community Hurdles
Wariness of further residential development. Significant multifamily development in Canton and surrounding
communities over the last 5 years has made many residents skeptical about allowing more housing units in town.
Concerns about traffic congestion, new school-age children, and resulting property tax increases make housing a
contentious issue in Canton.
Traffic and congestion. High levels of traffic and congestion throughout the town, particularly at peak commute
times, are a constraint for further development. This applies especially to uses that generate significant vehicle
traffic.
Aging population. Canton’s population is aging, and aging quickly. Since 2010, the 55+ population in the Canton
region has risen by 21%, compared to 9% for the population overall. A disproportionately older adult population
can limit the availability of working-age people to fill jobs and contribute to economic growth. Accommodating the
housing and service needs of seniors will continue to be a challenge for Canton over the short to medium term.
Site Hurdles
Isolation from other commercial uses. Because the site is largely surrounded by single-family homes, impacts of
potential uses on residents must be carefully considered. Uses with considerable traffic, noise, or light impacts,
particularly at night, would not be compatible with the site context. Additionally, from the perspective of a
customer-oriented business that relies on pass-by traffic, the site is restricting due to its limited visibility from
Washington Street and distance from other commercial nodes in town.
Transportation challenges. Washington Street is a highly congested corridor during peak times, a problem that
could be exacerbated depending on the number and timing of trips generated by future uses at the Draper site.
While the site could be connected by private shuttles or public buses to the town’s two commuter rail stations,
Canton and Canton Junction (both about a mile away), it does not have the direct transit access required for a true
transit-oriented development project.
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 6Cost of rehabilitation. While the buildings on the Draper site are fortunately structurally sound, they will require
significant investment to convert them for higher-value uses. Outside capital may be required to fund a future
redevelopment project, and the vision of potential investors may be out of line with community desires.
Market Trends and Opportunities
We have identified the following market opportunities by synthesizing a review of these key elements: review of
prior reports and existing materials, analysis of economic trends (past and projected), real estate market research,
and interviews with regional industry and market experts. These opportunities were identified based on what would
be viable in the market given existing and future conditions; they do not consider the community support that
would be required to bring them to fruition. Detailed market analysis can be found in Appendix B.
Residential
Given its excellent schools, high quality of life, and easy access to job centers in Boston (via commuter rail) as well as
the south and west suburbs (via 128), Canton is an attractive community to those seeking a suburban lifestyle.
Canton is attractive to Boston city dwellers looking for more space and/or more affordable prices, as well as
residents of nearby suburban towns who may be drawn to Canton by high-quality schools, better commuter rail
access, recreational and cultural amenities, and open space. Highway and rail access to both Boston and Providence
make it attractive to households with commuters traveling in opposite directions.
Limited residential vacancies and strong absorption in recent years both regionally and locally point to robust
demand for residential development of all types in Canton, and at the Draper site in particular. The high degree of
in-commuting into Canton suggests a need for more varied housing options in the town, which could be satisfied by
a unique development at the site that incorporates residential. The wooded setting of the site further contributes to
its residential desirability.
The market and site could support a fairly dense level of residential development, which could include multifamily
rentals, for-sale condos and townhouses, and senior housing across the continuum of care spectrum. Primary target
demographics would be those in the 25-39 and 65+ age groups, as these groups are both growing faster than the
population as a whole and tend to have preferences for denser development styles and smaller units. A prospective
developer would want to maximize the number of units developed on site in order to recoup costs associated with
rehabilitation and construction, and thus, low-density, single-family housing would likely not be preferred.
Retail and Restaurant
Based on its location, size, and visibility, any retail and restaurant uses at the Draper site would primarily be local-
serving, drawing most customers from within 1-2 miles of the site. This trade area contains about 11,500 residents
with a median household income of $105,000, indicating high spending potential. A retail leakage analysis indicates
a high degree of spending leakage out of this trade area (67%), meaning that the Draper site offers an opportunity
to serve as a retail node for the northwest area of Canton and recapture a portion of this spending locally. Viable
uses would be a small grocery store or market; a pharmacy; restaurants, cafes, and bars; specialty and boutique
retailers; and other services supporting local residents, such as salons and barber shops. The site would be
significantly more attractive to retailers if some level of onsite housing complemented the retail uses.
Office
From a macro perspective, the Rt. 128 South office market has enough existing office space to accommodate
anticipated demand over the next ten years. Since the Draper site would not be considered a prime location for a
large, Class A tenant, any onsite office development would need to appeal to small and medium-size space users. A
standard freestanding office building would not likely be successful on this site, as there is plenty of similar
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 7unoccupied space throughout Canton and the region. A well-positioned office product would need to be highly
differentiated and amenitized in order to be financially viable. This would be best accomplished through offering
office space as part of a collection of uses that would provide services, dining, entertainment, and recreation to
office workers onsite. Coworking space would also be a logical complement in such a mixed-use setting.
Light Industrial
Continuation of existing light industrial uses is a strong possibility for the site. Relatively small, low-impact uses have
worked well on the site for many decades, presenting an opportunity to build on this momentum. A broad range of
light manufacturing, assembly, and other “maker” / industrial arts tenants can continue to occupy the site at
relatively affordable rents, offering Canton a unique type of low-cost space that is not found elsewhere in the
community.
Global manufacturing trends have led to an increased demand for space to accommodate smaller-scale
manufacturing. The Norwood Space Center is an example of this type of space within the Canton area. An adaptive
reuse project, the Space Center is a complex of former industrial buildings that have been repurposed for uses
ranging from breweries and food manufacturing to creative studios and event space. The quality (and therefore
price) of space ranges significantly, and the complex will continue to be built out and improved as more space is
absorbed.
Many of the types of tenants currently found at the Draper site or the Norwood Space Center would fit well with
office, retail, or even residential uses (especially live-work units), and light industrial space could be incorporated
into a redevelopment project. From a financial feasibility perspective, however, it is unlikely that current tenants will
be able to afford space that is significantly rehabilitated or redeveloped, and full transformation of the site risks
displacing these tenants unless efforts are made to ensure the space remains affordable.
Rezoning Recommendation
The strength of the Canton market for various property types combined with the unique nature of the Draper site
points to a one-of-a-kind opportunity for a mixed-use development project rooted in the site’s industrial history.
Zoning allowing for a development scenario that builds on the current light industrial mix, with supporting office
and meeting space, small warehouse/storage space, creative/industrial arts space, food/recreation/entertainment,
and a modest residential component targeted toward on-site workers has the potential to bring a new kind of
“place” to Canton. This could be achieved by a combination of adaptive reuse of existing buildings, particularly
those with historic value, and new construction. Such a project would create value for the community that is greater
than the sum of its parts.
The following rezoning recommendation was developed based on a number of factors:
Market Feasibility – The uses determined to be most viable based on supply and demand for space in the
current real estate market environment.
Fiscal Impact – The impact of various use types on the Town’s ability to raise tax revenues and provide
services.
Site Context – The compatibility of different uses within the context of abutting properties and the
neighborhood overall.
Public Input – Support for various use types among the public, based on input received during the Public
Workshop held on June 13, 2018.
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 8We recommend that the site be rezoned to allow for a mixed-use district that permits the following general use
types:
Light industrial, including light manufacturing, assembly, small-scale warehousing and storage
Office, including coworking, meeting, and event space
Retail, including shops, restaurants/cafés, personal and business services, recreational and entertainment
amenities
Multifamily residential, both rental and for-sale, including apartments, townhomes, and live-work units; may
include a senior living and/or affordable component
Educational/community uses, including library or educational space, recreational space, and other civic uses
In general, we recommend that any new development on the site be kept to the current developed/cleared area and
not significantly extended into the remaining forested area on the site. Lot coverage of the cleared area should be
50% to allow for enough density to create the look and feel of a mixed-use district while balancing the need for
complementary open space. Note that this is roughly consistent with the current lot coverage of the site, estimated
at about 48%. We recommend an average building height of 2.5 floors, with a mix of primarily two- and three-story
buildings. Buildings should be arranged in a way that promotes the cohesiveness of the district and encourages
pedestrian activity between various use types, with parking relegated to the perimeter of the site.
Table 4 shows the recommended lot coverage and total building floor area for the site. Assuming 50% coverage of
the 10-acre cleared area and an average building height of 2.5 stores, the total building floor area would be 544,500
square feet. This would allow for approximately 56% more floor area relative to the current site buildout.
Table 4: Existing vs. Recommended Site Buildout
Existing vs. Recommended Site Buildout
Existing Recommended
A Total Lot Size (acres) 30.9 30.9
B Total Lot Size (SF) 1,346,004 1,346,004
C Cleared Area (acres) 10.0 10.0
D Cleared Area (SF) 435,600 435,600
E Building Footprint (SF) 210,000 217,800
F Total Lot Coverage (E/B) 16% 16%
G Cleared Area Lot Coverage (E/D) 48% 50%
H Average Height (floors) 1.67 2.50
I Total Building Floor Area (SF) (E*H) 350,000 544,500
Table 5 provides an example of the proportion of various space types recommended for the site. It is meant to
illustrate an appropriate mixed-use scenario for the site and not intended to dictate the exact proportion of each
use type. We recommend approximately 75% of the total floor area be dedicated to nonresidential uses
(commercial, industrial, and community uses) and 25% to residential uses. Assuming an average dwelling unit size of
1,350 SF, this amounts to 90 dwelling units. 3 This recommended level of residential density is consistent with the
allowable density in other areas of Canton where multifamily housing is permitted.
3 Note that this calculation assumes a gross square footage per unit of 1,500 SF, allowing for 10% non-usable space for hallways,
stairwells, etc.
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 9Table 5: Existing vs. Recommended Uses
Existing vs. Recommended Uses
Existing Recommended
Use Type
GSF % GSF % Units
Commercial - 0% 163,350 30% X
Industrial 350,000 100% 190,575 35% X
Community - 0% 54,450 10% X
Total Non-Residential - 0% 408,375 75% X
Residential - 0% 136,125 25% 90
Total 350,000 100% 544,500 100% X
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Camoin Associates conducted a limited fiscal impact analysis of the recommended buildout scenario to assess the
impact of nonresidential versus residential uses on the Town’s budget. Note that this analysis was conducted at a
high level using the average costing method, and should be used only to gauge the order of magnitude of impacts
for planning purposes. Any proposed future buildout scenario would require a detailed fiscal impact analysis to
measure project-specific impacts on various Town departments. Refer to Appendix D for more information on the
fiscal impact analysis and the average costing approach.
Demographic Impacts
Demographic multipliers for Massachusetts were used to estimate the number of residents and school-age children
that would be generated from 90 new residential units on the site. The number of residents and schoolchildren
generated is highly dependent on the number of bedrooms in each residential unit. Based on the other uses onsite,
market demand, and higher developer return on smaller units, the market is likely to produce mostly one- and two-
bedroom units, with a smaller number of three-bedrooms. For this analysis, we assume 40% studio and one-
bedroom units, 45% two-bedroom units, and 15% three-bedroom units. As shown in Table 6, this mix would result
in approximately 181 total residents and 20 public schoolchildren. 4
Table 6: Residents and Public-School-Age Children
Residents and Public School Age Children
School-Age
Number of % of Total Residents SAC per Unit % in Public
Unit Type Residents Children PSAC
Units Units per Unit (1) (1) School (2)
(SAC)
Studio/1-BR 36 40% 1.382 0.039 50 1 91.3% 1
2-BR 41 45% 2.219 0.280 90 11 91.3% 10
3-BR 14 15% 3.048 0.638 41 9 91.3% 8
Total 90 100% 181 22 20
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding.
Sources: (1) Econsult Solutions 2015 Demographic Multipliers for Massachusetts; (2) 2016 American Community Survey
4 These calculations use the upper 90 percent confidence interval values for the resident and school-age children multipliers for
rental units, and round up the nearest whole number, to produce the most conservative estimate possible from available data.
While some or all units may be for-sale units rather than rental units, rental unit multipliers were generally higher than for-sale
unit multipliers, and were therefore used to produce a more conservative estimate.
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 10Assessed Value
Assessed value for the recommended buildout is estimated at approximately $90 million, as shown in Table 7. This
represents a 25-fold increase over the current assessed value of the site of approximately $3.6 million. Estimated
assessed values per square foot for each use type were developed based on the market value for comparable
properties in the Canton area. Note this assumes that 10% of floor area is dedicated to non-taxable community
space.
Table 7: Estimated Assessed Value
Estimated Assessed Value
Taxable % of
Recommended Dwelling
$AV/GSF Assessed Total $AV/Unit
GSF Units
Value AV
Commercial 163,350 $ 200 $ 32,670,000 36% X X
Industrial 190,575 $ 120 $ 22,869,000 26% X X
Community 54,450 $ - $ - 0% X X
Total Non-Residential 408,375 $ - $ 55,539,000 62% X X
Residential* 136,125 $ 250 $ 34,031,250 38% 90 $ 378,125
Total 544,500 $ - $ 89,570,250 100% X X
*Residential assessed value per gross square foot reflects gross average unit size of 1,500 SF, including hallways and other
non-usable space. Average usable space per unit is assumed to be 1,350 SF.
Fiscal Impacts
Camoin Associates used an average costing approach to estimate fiscal impacts from the buildout. This approach
identifies variable expenses and revenues in the Town’s budget and calculates the average cost per “unit” for each
budget item. The “unit” used depends on the budget item; for this analysis, “units” used include number of
residents, number of schoolchildren, and amount of assessed value. The average cost per unit is then applied to the
incremental unit increase attributable to the buildout to estimate the total impact.
Table 8 shows the incremental increase in residents, public schoolchildren, and real property assessed value that
would occur over Town baseline levels.
Table 8: Change over Baseline from Site Buildout
Change over Baseline from Site Buildout
Current Site Pct. Change
Town Baseline Net Change*
Baseline over Baseline
Residents (1) 23,444 - 188 0.8%
Public School Children (2) 3,310 - 24 0.7%
Total Real Property AV (3) $ 4,571,818,390 $ 3,613,900 $ 85,956,350 1.9%
*Current real property assessed value of site subtracted from future buildout assessed value
Sources: (1) Census Population Estimates; (2) MA Department of Education; (3) MA Department of Revenue
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 11Revenues
Assessed values were multiplied by the Town’s tax rates to determine the total annual tax revenue that could be
expected. The Town’s 2018 commercial tax rate is 25.86 per $1,000 of assessed value, and its residential tax rate is
12.42 per $1,000. Annual tax revenue would amount to $1.86 million, of which 23% would be residential and 77%
would be nonresidential. Net of the property tax revenue currently generated by the site (about $93,000), annual tax
revenue would equal $1.77 million. Despite a residential tax rate less than half that of the commercial rate, the
comparatively high value of residential development relative to nonresidential (especially industrial) development
means that the residential share of tax revenue (23%) is roughly consistent with the residential share of total floor
area (25%).
Table 9: Annual Property Tax Revenue
Annual Property Tax Revenue
Tax Rate % of Total
Taxable Annual Tax
per Property Tax
Assessed Value Revenue
$1,000AV Revenue
Commercial $ 32,670,000 $ 25.86 $ 844,846 45%
Industrial $ 22,869,000 $ 25.86 $ 591,392 32%
Community $ - $ - $ - 0%
Total Non-Residential $ 55,539,000 $ 1,436,239 77%
Residential* $ 34,031,250 $ 12.42 $ 422,668 23%
Total $ 89,570,250 $ 1,858,907 100%
Existing Property $ 3,613,900 $ 25.86 $ 93,455 --
Net Change $ 85,956,350 $ 1,765,451 --
Other revenues including personal property taxes, motor vehicle excise, and hotel/meal tax were estimated using
the average costing approach as shown in Table 10. In total, net new revenues from buildout are estimated at $2.1
million per year. Note that manufacturing operations currently onsite are exempt from personal property tax, so any
new personal property tax generated would be a net gain for the Town. Both overall and on a per-square-foot basis,
nonresidential uses generate more revenue than residential uses.
Table 10: Summary of Net New Revenues from Buildout
Summary of Net New Revenues from Buildout
Nonresidential Residential
Variable Revenue Source Total Revenues
Revenues Revenues
Real Estate Property Taxes (Net) $ 1,342,783 $ 422,668 $ 1,765,451
Personal Property Taxes (1) $ 253,667 $ - $ 253,667
Motor Vehicle Excise (2) $ 40,888 $ 26,797 $ 67,685
Hotel/Meals Tax (3) $ 11,281 $ - $ 11,281
Total Revenues $ 1,648,618 $ 449,465 $ 2,098,084
Total Revenues per Taxable SF $ 4.66 $ 3.30 $ 4.28
(1) Estimated as 18.9% of real estate property taxes, equivalent to total Town personal property
AV as a proportion of total Town commercial and industrial real property AV
(2) Total estimated in proportion to increase in total AV; allocated between nonresidential and
residential based on share of buildout AV
(3) Estimated in proportion to increase in total AV; 100% allocated to nonresidential
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 12Expenses
Table 11 summarizes the impact of the buildout scenario on Town expenses, net of expenses currently generated by
the site, which are estimated at roughly $13,000 annually. 5 For more detail on the expenses considered “variable” for
this analysis, refer to Appendix E. In total, net new expenses are estimated at $635,000 annually. Residential uses are
projected to contribute significantly more to expenses than nonresidential uses, both overall and on a per-square-
foot basis.
Table 11: Summary of New Expenses from Buildout
Summary of New Expenses from Buildout
Nonresidential Residential
Expenses Total Expenses
Expenses Expenses
Total AV-Variable Expenses $ 190,213 $ 116,552 $ 306,765
Total Population-Variable Expenses $ - $ 23,577 $ 23,577
Total School Children-Variable Expenses $ - $ 304,422 $ 304,422
Total Expenses $ 190,213 $ 444,551 $ 634,764
Total Expenses Per Taxable SF $ 0.54 $ 3.27 $ 1.30
The net fiscal impact of the buildout scenario is estimated to be positive, at $1.46 million per year, net of current
revenues and expenses generated by the site. This compares to the current estimated net fiscal of the site of
positive $81,000. Both residential and nonresidential uses are projected to have a net positive impact, though
nonresidential uses show a significantly higher fiscal benefit. Using the most conservative demographic multipliers
available, the impact of residential development uses is essentially neutral. Using “average” demographic multiplier
values would show a greater net benefit for new housing units.
Table 12: Net Impact of Buildout
Net Impact of Buildout
Buildout Scenario (Net of Current)
Current
Nonresidential Residential Total
Total Revenues $ 93,455 $ 1,648,618 $ 449,465 $ 2,098,084
Total Expenses $ (12,897) $ (190,213) $ (444,551) $ (634,764)
Net Impact $ 80,558 $ 1,458,405 $ 4,914 $ 1,463,319
Revenues per Taxable SF $ 0.27 $ 4.66 $ 3.30 $ 4.28
Expenses per Taxable SF $ (0.04) $ (0.54) $ (3.27) $ (1.30)
Net Impact per Taxable SF $ 0.23 $ 4.12 $ 0.04 $ 2.99
The net impact of the residential component is shown on a per-unit and per-resident basis in Table 13.
Table 13: Net Impact of Residential Component
Net Impact of Residential Component
Total Per Unit Per Resident
Revenues $ 449,465 $ 4,994 $ 2,391
Expenses $ (444,551) $ (4,939) $ (2,365)
Net Impact $ 4,914 $ 55 $ 26
5 Estimated using the current assessed value of the site as a percent of the assessed value of all real property in the Town. The
site was assumed to contribute a proportionate share to variable expenses in the Town’s budget that are impacted by onsite
activities, assumed to comprise the operating expense categories shown in Appendix E, Table 55.
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 13Appendix A. Community Profile
In order to assess current and future market conditions, it is important to understand current and projected
socioeconomic conditions in the town, county, region and state. The following section highlights relevant
socioeconomic characteristics in the Town of Canton and surrounding region.
For the community profile, demographic and socioeconomic data for the Town of Canton was compared to Norfolk
County, as well as the Boston Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), Massachusetts, and the US. Figure 2 below
illustrates the various study areas.
Figure 2: Map: Study Areas
Town of
Canton
Draper
Knitting
Mill Site
Boston
MSA
Massachusetts
Town of
Canton
Norfolk
County
Source: Esri
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 14Demographic Snapshot
Demographic data for the five geographies (Canton, Norfolk County, Boston MSA, Massachusetts, US) provides
context for the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of Canton. With a median income over $100,000,
Canton residents earn significantly more than residents of Norfolk County, the MSA, the state, and the nation. The
average household size for Canton is slightly larger than the comparison geographies, except for in the US as a
whole. The median age in Canton is slightly higher than the median age of the comparison geographies.
Table 14: Demographic Profile, 2017
Demographic Profile - 2017
Town of Norfolk
Boston MSA Massachusetts United States
Canton County
Total Population 23,166 702,913 4,830,528 6,884,028 327,514,334
Total Households 8,885 267,183 1,852,306 2,652,580 123,158,887
Average Household Size 2.57 2.56 2.52 2.50 2.59
Median Age 43.8 41.7 39.4 40.0 38.2
Median Household Income $101,756 $94,103 $78,835 $71,460 $56,124
Source: Esri
Table 15: Demographic Profile, 2010
Demographic Profile - 2010
Town of Norfolk
Boston MSA Massachusetts United States
Canton County
Total Population 21,561 670,850 4,552,402 6,547,629 308,745,538
Total Households 8,378 257,914 1,760,584 2,547,075 116,716,292
Average Household Size 2.54 2.53 2.50 2.48 2.58
Median Age 42.4 40.7 38.4 39.0 37.1
Median Household Income $89,705 $81,027 $69,983 $64,509 $51,914
Source: Esri
Table 16 shows the change in demographic data between 2010 and 2017 across all geographies. Canton
experienced the largest population growth of all regions at 7.4%, which also translated to growth in total
households. Average household size grew at the same rate as the county, which was greater than the growth rates
in household size experienced in the MSA, state, and nation. Median age also increased more rapidly in the Town of
Canton than in comparison geographies. Income increased the most within the county, followed by the town.
Table 16: Demographic Profile, Percent Change 2010 - 2017
Demographic Profile - Change, 2010-2017
Town of Norfolk
Boston MSA Massachusetts United States
Canton County
Total Population 7.4% 4.8% 6.1% 5.1% 6.1%
Total Households 6.1% 3.6% 5.2% 4.1% 5.5%
Average Household Size 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Median Age 3.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 3.0%
Median Household Income 13.4% 16.1% 12.6% 10.8% 8.1%
Source: Esri
Camoin Associates | Draper Knitting Company Site Redevelopment: Market Feasibility Study 15You can also read
