Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020

 
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Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020
Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump’s acceptance speeches
                       September 3, 2020
Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020
Methodology
  On behalf of the Center for Voter Information and the Voter Participation Center,
  Democracy Corps on August 20 and 27, 2020, conducted online dial meter research
  during Vice President Joe Biden’s acceptance speech for the Democratic nomination for
  President and President Donald Trump’s acceptance speech for the Republican
  nomination, among 201 registered voters nationally.

  Key line groups include:
       • African Americans
       • Latinos
       • White millennials
       • White unmarried women
       • White working-class women
       • White college women
       • White working-class men

  To ensure each line was as representative as possible, these lines were individually
  recruited. Surveys were administered before and after the live dial meter session.

    *This research is qualitative, and results are not statistically projectable onto a
                                    larger population.*

                                                                                          1
Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020
Key Findings
• Joe Biden’s acceptance speech was more impactful and defining than was
  Donald Trump’s — though each barely moved Trump’s job approval ratings
  or the winning margins in the race. The contest, as you will see in the
  polling between and during the conventions, is very locked into current the
  structure.

• Biden’s speech touched the Rising American Electorate of African
  Americans, Hispanic and Latino voters, and white unmarried women, but
  also college women and white working-class women. It further branded
  Trump as someone who works only for his own party, and further defined
  Biden as uniting the country, dealing with racial strife and good for the
  middle class and its values.

• Biden did not make gains on who would be better on health care – the most
  important issue.

                                                                              2
Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020
Key Findings
• Trump’s speech, which was more political than factual, artificially raised
  Biden’s unfavorability with white working class women, white unmarried
  women and African Americans.

• Trump’s speech seemed to get his strongest response with white working
  class men, followed by white working class women. When he spoke about
  asserting America’s interests, such as with NATO and energy independence,
  white college women and millennials responded as well.

• Trump made gains compared to Biden on health care and China, which is a
  real potential issue. It is important to note that he made his smallest gains on
  handling “law and order.”

• Rarely does a speech damage your image, but Trump’s negativity may have
  backfired and the number thinking he is self-dealing jumped 10 points, as well
  as those strongly believing he, ”governs for billionaires.” He made only
  modest gains on governing for the “forgotten Americans.”

                                                                                 3
Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020
Trump’s speech less impactful on favorability than Biden’s; matches his and
Obama’s weakest State of the Union and far short of Obama’s best
               BIDEN VS. TRUMP FAVORABILITY (% FAVORABLE)
                       Pre-Speech          Post-Speech
 +16         -5     +7       -9   +26 +8     +12     +6 +19                                                       +16

      75
 59                             59               56          58            58                          54            57
                           45        50                50            46
                      38                                                                 36                    41
           31 26                            30                                     30            35

  Joe Donald Donald Joe Obama Obama Trump Trump Trump Trump
 Biden Trump Trump Biden 2011 2013 2017 2018 2019 2020
                         SOTU SOTU SOTU SOTU SOTU SOTU
Democratic National   Republican National   Obama: Best & Worst
                                                                             Trump: 1st Term SOTU Speeches
   Convention            Convention           SOTU Speeches
                                                  *2018 dial lines did not include white working-class women and white
                                                  college women. 2019 dial lines did not include white working-class men. 4
Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020
RNC: Trump speech reduced Biden’s favorability with white working-class
women, white unmarried women, and black voters.
I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY
COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold.

                      RNC: BIDEN/TRUMP FAVORABILITY (% FAVORABLE)

    -9           +7   --      +10     -10     +10     -22     +10      -10      +10     -27      +7       -5       +2     -14      +3

                                                                                                                          89
                                                                                                                            75
                                                                66 65                  67
  59
    50                5353            52     52 56            56     55
                                                                                                50 5348 53
                                                                                                          55
               45               47
             38               37
                                        42 42                                              40 43
                                                  34                             30
                                                                               20                                                 2023

   Biden     Trump    Biden   Trump   Biden   Trump   Biden   Trump    Biden   Trump    Biden   Trump    Biden   Trump    Biden   Trump
                                         White            White                            White            White
                       White            Working                                                                              African
         Total                                           Working          Hispanic       Unmarried          College
                      Millennials        class                                                                              American
                                                        Class Men                         Women             Women
                                        women

                                                                                                                                          5
Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020
RNC: Speech generated virtually no improvement in Trump’s job approval, even
on the pandemic
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

                             TRUMP APPROVAL: PRE & POST SPEECH
                                          Strong approve                            Strong disapprove

                      +4                                           +4                                          +7

                                 41                      43                        47                                    39
          37                                                                                            32

          22                     27                      27                        32                   17               24

          51                     48                      44                        38                   53               50

                                 59                      57                        53                                    61
          63                                                                                            68

         Pre                      Post                   Pre                Post                        Pre              Post

          Overall Job Approval                                 The Economy                              Handling Coronavirus

                                                                                                                                6
Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020
DNC: Biden speech sharply defined Trump brand - works only for own party, self-
dealing and for billionaires
                                    BIDEN SPEECH: PRE & POST
                                  Very well                                           Not well at all
    +9           +7            +3                  -9             -5             -5               -5                -4             -3

         72           71     69      72
 63             64
                                              38             33                              32                35        31   31
                                                        29             28                              27                               28
                                                                            21        16
         47     42    46     48      53
 37
                                              17        16   16        14   8         6      16        15      21        20   18        14
 17      15     16    14     16      15
                                              47        53   51        53                    47        53      49        54   51        59
         28                                                                 67        73
 37             31    28     36      29
                                              62              68 73 65 69 69 72
                                                             67
                                                        71
                                                     79 84             72
 Pre   Post Pre Post Governing
 Works only          Pre Post  for Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post
                                                              Draining the
                 Self-     billionaires and                  Keeping his                                       Battles for
   to help                                    Preventing                    Trump is          swamp of                        Governing for
                dealing       big money                       promises                                          working
his own party                                 voter fraud                   our savior         corrupt                        the forgotten
                                 elites                                                                        Americans
                                                                                           special interests                    Americans

                                                                                                                                             7
Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020
RNC: Trump’s speech back-fired on self-dealing and governing for billionaires,
while making only modest gains on keeping us safe and forgotten Americans
                                   TRUMP SPEECH: PRE & POST
                                   Very well                                       Not well at all
   +10              +6          +5              +7             +7             +7             +7               +6              +6

         71    65        71          69
 61                           64
                                                     45   42        49                         44                  42    42        48
                                           38                                  31       37               36
                                                                         24
 42      47    44        53   40     46
                                           22        30   24        32                  19     29        21        27    25        30
                                                                         10    14
 19      15    44        41   45     38
                                           64        59   46        43                  37     32        18      15      18     16
                                                                         45    44
         29              55          51
 39            62             58
                                                     69   63        56                         52                29      36     32
                                           76                                  48       58               35
                                                                         62
 Pre Post Governing
          Pre Post      Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre
                    for Works only
                                                                           Post
                                                                     Draining the Pre    Post
                                                                                   Is going to
                                                          Keeping us     Trump is       Governing for                     be reelected
   Self-      billionaires and to help     Keeping his                                                     swamp of
                                                             safe        our savior     the forgotten                     to a second
  Dealing        big money his own party    promises                                                        corrupt
                                                                                          Americans                           term
                    Elites                                                                              special interests

                                                                                                                                        8
Dial meter reactions to Biden and Trump's acceptance speeches - September 3, 2020
DNC: WHO WILL DO A BETTER JOB? Biden made large gains on strength, racial
strife and unity and improving things for the middle class
Now you will read some issues. For each issue, please say whether you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better
job with handling that issue.
                                           BIDEN SPEECH: PRE & POST
                                   Biden much better                                          Trump much better

    +11        +10            +10            +10                +9            +9             +9            +8             +8            +8

    68 65 75 62 72 61 71 60 69 60 69    65 64 72 70 78 64 72
 57                                  56

 41 49 46 60 45 56 41 53 39 50 37 46 36 46 48 58 44 56 48 57
 26 21 16 14 17 13 20 19 23 19 20 17 24 21 17 13 14 12 18 16
    26 23 20 25 21 29 24    26 29 24       25 19 20 15 26 24
 32                      32          38 31

 Pre   Post   Pre   Post     Pre    Post   Pre     Post      Pre    Post    Pre    Post   Pre     Post   Pre    Post   Pre   Post   Pre    Post
                                                              Promoting
  Making      Dealing with                   Improving                                      Getting       Handling a
                             Uniting the                         hard                                                  Addressing
  America        racial                    things for the                   Will keep     people back     pandemic
                              country                         work and                                                  climate     Health care
   strong        strife                     middle class                   his promises     to work        like the
                                                               personal                                                 change
                                                                                                         coronavirus
                                                            responsibility

                                                                                                                                                  9
RNC: WHO WILL DO A BETTER JOB? Trump makes largest gains on healthcare
and China. Least on dealing with racial strife and, surprisingly, law and order.
Now you will read some issues. For each issue, please say whether you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better
job with handling that issue.
                                       TRUMP SPEECH: PRE & POST
                                   Biden much better                                    Trump much better

    +9          +9             +7            +6            +6            +6           +6            +6              +6            +5

 62 55
       49 44 59 56 50 47 50 46 52 49 56 55 56 52 59 58 53 50

 40 40 32 30 43 38 32 31 34 30 33 33 42 41 34 35 43 42 33 31
 21 31 29 38 20 26 30 39 32 38 32 36 27 34 26 31 20 26 30 36
 29          27 34                         33 39 28 34 39
    38 38          40 46 41 47 38    34 40
          47                      44                      44

 Pre   Post   Pre    Post    Pre    Post   Pre   Post   Pre    Post    Pre    Post   Pre   Post   Pre    Post    Pre   Post     Pre   Post

                                                          Getting     Getting the
   Health                    Uniting the      The                                    Protecting                    Dealing        Dealing
              Dealing with                                            country out                  Will keep
    care                      country       economy     people back                      our                      with racial    with law
                 China                                                  of deep                   his promises
                                                          to work                    democracy                      strife       and order
                                                                       recession

                                                                                                                                         10
Biden Speech

               11
Strong reaction to health crisis and economic impact, with sharp rise in lines on
bringing America together and national COVID strategy with information from experts

                A: Sharp drop on economic and health crisis                      B: “I see a different America. [..] It’s an America we can rebuild together.””

                                                                                            C: “We’ll put the politics aside and take the muzzle off our experts
                                                                                                so the public gets the information they need and deserve.”

• [A] If this president is re-elected, we know what will happen. Cases and deaths will remain far too high. More mom-and-pop businesses will close their doors for
  good. Working families will struggle to get by, and yet, the wealthiest 1 percent will get tens of billions of dollars in new tax breaks. And the assault on the
  Affordable Care Act will continue until its destroyed, taking insurance away from more than 20 million people — including more than 15 million people on Medicaid
  — and getting rid of the protections that President Obama and I passed for people who suffer from a pre-existing condition.
• [B] I see a different America. One that is together generous and strong. Selfless and humble. It’s an America we can rebuild t’s ruined so many lives. Because I
  understand something this president doesn’t. We will never get our economy back on track, we will never get our kids safely back to school, we will never have our
  lives back, until we deal with this virus.
• [C] Well, I do. If I’m president on day one, we’ll implement the national strategy I’ve been laying out since March. We’ll develop and deploy rapid tests with results
  available immediately. We’ll make the medical supplies and protective equipment our country needs. And we’ll make them here in America. So we will never again
  be at the mercy of China and other foreign countries in order to protect our own people. We’ll make sure our schools have the resources they need to be open, safe,
  and effective. We’ll put the politics aside and take the muzzle off our experts so the public gets the information they need and deserve. The honest, unvarnished
  truth. They can deal with that.

                                                                                                                                                                 12
Very positive reaction to Biden’s own experience with loss, with sustained rise on
middle class jobs plan and sharp jump in the lines on corporations paying fair share

             “I found the best way through pain and                                                  C: Sharp rise on making corporations pay their fair share
                 loss and grief is to find purpose.”

                                                                             B: Sustained rise on economic plan about jobs and dignity

            A: Sharp rise on getting through pain and loss by finding purpose

• [A] I know how mean and cruel and unfair life can be sometimes. But I’ve learned two things. First, your loved ones may have left this Earth but they never leave
  your heart. They will always be with you. And second, I found the best way through pain and loss and grief is to find purpose. As God’s children each of us have a
  purpose in our lives. And we have a great purpose as a nation: to open the doors of opportunity to all Americans. To save our democracy. To be a light to the world
  once again
• [B] That’s why my economic plan is all about jobs, dignity, respect and community. Together, we can, and we will, rebuild our economy. And when we do, - we’ll not
  only build it back, we’ll build it back better. With modern roads, bridges, highways, broadband, ports and airports as a new foundation for economic growth. With
  pipes that transport clean water to every community. With five million new manufacturing and technology jobs so the future is made in America. With a health care
  system that lowers premiums, deductibles, and drug prices by building on the Affordable Care Act he’s trying to rip away. With an education system that trains our
  people for the best jobs of the 21st century, where cost doesn’t prevent young people from going to college, and student debt doesn’t crush them when they get
  out.[…]
• [ C] And we can pay for these investments by ending loopholes and the president’s $1.3 trillion tax giveaway to the wealthiest 1 percent and the biggest, most
  profitable corporations, some of which pay no tax at all. Because we don’t need a tax code that rewards wealth more than it rewards work. I’m not looking to punish
  anyone. Far from it. But it’s long past time the wealthiest people and the biggest corporations in this country paid their fair share.

                                                                                                                                                             13
Another positive response after Biden mentions family, and lines go up on restoring
American leadership abroad, with sharp rise on call to action to address racism

                        A: Biden speaking about drawing strength from his family                                                       C: Racism and Charlottesville

                                                           B: Foreign policy, standing with allies and against dictators

                                                                                                                               “It was a wake-up call for us as a country.

• [A] Kamala and I both draw strength from our families. [..] After losing my first wife in a car accident, Jill came into my life and put our family back together. She’s
  an educator. A mom. A military mom. And an unstoppable force. If she puts her mind to it, just get out of the way. Because she’s going to get it done. She was a
  great second lady and she will make a great first lady for this nation. She loves this country so much. And I will have the strength that can only come from family.
  Hunter, Ashley and all our grandchildren, my brothers, my sister. They give me courage and lift me up. And while he is no longer with us, Beau inspires me every day.
  Beau served our nation in uniform. A decorated Iraq war veteran. So I take very personally the profound responsibility of serving as commander in chief.
• [B] I will be a president who will stand with our allies and friends. I will make it clear to our adversaries the days of cozying up to dictators are over. Under President
  Biden, America will not turn a blind eye to Russian bounties on the heads of American soldiers. Nor will I put up with foreign interference in our most sacred
  democratic exercise — voting. I will stand always for our values of human rights and dignity. And I will work in common purpose for a more secure, peaceful, and
  prosperous world..
• [C] History has thrust one more urgent task on us. Will we be the generation that finally wipes the stain of racism from our national character? I believe we’re up to
  it. I believe we’re ready Just a week ago yesterday was the third anniversary of the events in Charlottesville. Remember seeing those neo-Nazis and Klansmen and
  white supremacists coming out of the fields with lighted torches? Veins bulging? […] It was a wake-up call for us as a country. And for me, a call to action. At that
  moment, I knew I’d have to run. My father taught us that silence was complicity. And I could not remain silent or complicit.

                                                                                                                                                                    14
Closing minutes bring all lines up in a tight group on making progress in our darkest
moments, with final rise when he says “end of this chapter of American Darkness”

                                                                      B: In darkest moments we’ve made our greatest progress

                                                                                                                        C: End of this chapter of American Darkness
                A: Battle for the soul of this nation, George Floyd, John Lewis

• [A] One of the most important conversations I’ve had this entire campaign is with someone who is too young to vote. I met with 6-year old Gianna Floyd, a day
  before her daddy, George Floyd, was laid to rest. She is incredibly brave. I’ll never forget. When I leaned down to speak with her, she looked into my eyes and said,
  “Daddy changed the world.” Her words burrowed deep into my heart. Maybe George Floyd’s murder was the breaking point. Maybe John Lewis’ passing the
  inspiration.
• [B] America’s history tells us that it has been in our darkest moments that we’ve made our greatest progress. That we’ve found the light. And in this dark moment, I
  believe we are poised to make great progress again. In times as challenging as these, I believe there is only one way forward. As a united America. United Are we
  ready? I believe we are. Tin our pursuit of a more perfect union. United in our dreams of a better future for us and for our children. United in our determination to
  make the coming years bright. his is a great nation. And we are a good and decent people. This is the United States of America. And there has never been anything
  we’ve been unable to accomplish when we’ve done it together.
• [C] This is our moment to make hope and history rhyme. With passion and purpose, let us begin — you and I together, one nation, under God — united in our love
  for America and united in our love for each other. For love is more powerful than hate. Hope is more powerful than fear. Light is more powerful than dark. This is our
  moment. This is our mission. May history be able to say that the end of this chapter of American darkness began here tonight as love and hope and light joined in
  the battle for the soul of the nation. And this is a battle that we, together, will win. I promise you. Thank you. And may God bless you. And may God protect our
  troops.

                                                                                                                                                                15
Trump Speech

               16
Lines rise on importance of election, flat on racial injustice, and all rise on salvation
 from god not career politicians.

                                                                                      B: Punish America for sins, rife with racial injustice.

                               A:Most important election ever.
                                                                                                              C: Salvation from god not career politicians

• [A] And yet, despite all of our greatness as a nation, everything we have achieved is now endangered. This is the most important election in the history of our
  country. At no time before have voters faced a clearer choice between two parties, two visions, two philosophies, or two agendas. This election will decide whether
  we SAVE the American Dream, or whether we allow a socialist agenda to DEMOLISH our cherished destiny. Your vote will decide whether we protect law abiding
  Americans, or whether we give free reign to violent anarchists, agitators, and criminals who threaten our citizens
• [B] And this election will decide whether we will defend the American Way of Life, or whether we allow a radical movement to completely dismantle and destroy it.
  At the Democrat National Convention, Joe Biden and his party repeatedly assailed America as a land of racial, economic, and social injustice. So tonight, I ask you a
  very simple question: How can the Democrat Party ask to lead our country when it spends so much time tearing down our country? In the left's backward view, they
  do not see America as the most free, just, and exceptional nation on earth. Instead, they see a wicked nation that must be punished for its sins..
• [C] Our opponents say that redemption for YOU can only come from giving power to THEM. This is a tired anthem spoken by every repressive movement throughout
  history. But in this country, we don't look to career politicians for salvation. In America, we don't turn to government to restore our souls -- we put our faith in
  Almighty God

                                                                                                                                                                17
Long sustained rise on making other nations pay their fair share in NATO, white working
class rise on putting America first and American energy independence.

   A: Other countries took advantage/ held NATO accountable.
                                                                                 B: America First.

                                                                                                     C: Paris Accord/energy independence.

• [A] Four years ago, I ran for President because I could not watch this betrayal of our country any longer. I could not sit by as career politicians let other countries
  take advantage of us on trade, borders, foreign policy and national defense. Our NATO partners, as an example, were far behind in their defense payments. But at
  my strong urging, they agreed to pay $130 billion more a year. This will ultimately go to $400 billion. Secretary General Stoltenberg, who heads NATO, was amazed,
  and said that President Trump did what no one else was able to do
• [B] I did what our political establishment never expected and could never forgive, breaking the cardinal rule of Washington Politics. I KEPT MY PROMISES. Together,
  we have ended the rule of the failed political class -- and they are desperate to get their power back by any means necessary. They are angry at me because instead
  of putting THEM FIRST, I put AMERICA FIRST.
• [C] Days after taking office, we shocked the Washington Establishment and withdrew from the last Administration's job-killing Trans Pacific Partnership. I then
  approved the Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines, ended the unfair and costly Paris Climate Accord, and secured, for the first time, American Energy
  Independence. We passed record-setting tax and regulation cuts, at a rate nobody had ever seen before. Within three short years, we built the strongest economy in
  the history of the world.

                                                                                                                                                                 18
Rise on acknowledging border patrol (not voters of color) and taking on big pharma;
Black lines drop sharply with “done more for African Americans than anyone”

            A:Pro-America immigration policy/                                                                                           C: Done most for African
                                                                                     B: Took on big pharma
                   Brave border patrol.                                                                                                 Americans since Lincoln.

• [A] In perhaps no area did the Washington special interests try harder to stop us than on my policy of pro-American immigration. But I refused to back down -- and
  today America's borders are more secure than EVER before. We ENDED catch-and-release, stopped asylum fraud, took down human traffickers who prey on women
  and children, and we have deported 20,000 Gang Members and 500,000 Criminal Aliens. We have already built 300 miles of BorderWall -- and we are adding 10
  new miles every single week. The Wall will soon be complete, and it is working beyond our wildest expectations. We are joined this evening by members of the
  Border Patrol union, representing our country's courageous border agents. Thank you all
• [B] Last month, I took on Big Pharma and signed orders that will massively lower the cost of your prescription drugs, and to give critically ill patients access to
  lifesaving cures, we passed the decades long-awaited RIGHT TO TRY legislation. We also passed VA Accountability and VA Choice.
• [C] By the end of my first term, we will have approved more than 300 federal judges, including two great new Supreme Court Justices. To bring prosperity to our
  forgotten inner cities, we worked hard to pass historic criminal justice reform, prison reform, opportunity zones, the long-term funding of historically black colleges
  and universities, and, before the China Virus came in, produced the best unemployment numbers for African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, and Asian-Americans
  ever recorded. I have done more for the African-American community than any president since Abraham Lincoln, our first Republican president. I have done more in
  three years for the black community than Joe Biden has done in 47 years—and when I'm reelected, the best is yet to come!

                                                                                                                                                                   19
Iran nuclear deal and Israel get slow rise, but Embassy move leaves flat. Trump gets
sharp negative reaction to states wanting jobs back, not empathy.

                                                                                        B: Rebuilt the military

                           A: Iran nuclear deal/Israel
                                                                                                                                  C: NAFTA and trade deals

                                        “…recognized Israel's true capital and
                                         moved our Embassy to Jerusalem.”                                            “…states didn't want Joe Biden's hollow
                                                                                                                  words of empathy, they wanted their jobs back!
                                B: Country loves law enforcement
• [A] When I took office, the Middle East was in total chaos. ISIS was rampaging, Iran was on the rise, and the war in Afghanistan had no end in sight. I withdrew from
  the terrible, one-sided Iran Nuclear Deal. Unlike many presidents before me, I kept my promise, recognized Israel's true capital and moved our Embassy to
  Jerusalem. But not only did we talk about it as a future site, we got it built. Rather than spending $1 billion on a new building as planned, we took an already owned
  existing building in a better location, and opened it at a cost of less than $500,000. We also recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and this month
  we achieved the first Middle East peace deal in 25 years. In addition, we obliterated 100 percent of the ISIS Caliphate, and killed its founder and leader Abu Bakr al-
  Baghdadi. Then, in a separate operation, we eliminated the world's number one terrorist, Qasem Soleimani.
• [B] Unlike previous administrations, I have kept America OUT of new wars -- and our troops are coming home. We have spent nearly $2.5 trillion on completely
  rebuilding our military, which was very badly depleted when I took office. This includes three separate pay raises for our great warriors. We also launched the Space
  Force, the first new branch of the United States military since the Air Force was created almost 75 years ago
• [C] Biden voted for the NAFTA disaster, the single worst trade deal ever enacted; he supported China's entry into the World Trade Organization, one of the greatest
  economic disasters of all time. After those Biden calamities, the United States lost 1 in 4 manufacturing jobs. The laid off workers in Michigan, Ohio, New
  Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and many other states didn't want Joe Biden's hollow words of empathy, they wanted their jobs back!

                                                                                                                                                                 20
Lines slide down on pandemic response, with an uptick on producing more ventilators
and later on outperforming other countries on pandemic response

                              A: First responders, more ventilators and testing

             “we produced the world's largest supply of ventilators. Not a single
             American who has needed a ventilator has been denied a ventilator.”                                       B: Reacted faster than other countries, EU

• [A] In recent months, our nation, and the rest of the world, has been hit with a once-in-a-century pandemic that China allowed to spread around the globe. We are
  grateful to be joined tonight by several of our incredible nurses and first responders -- please stand and accept our profound thanks. Many Americans have sadly lost
  friends and cherished loved ones to this horrible disease. As one nation, we mourn, we grieve, and we hold in our hearts forever the memories of all of those lives so
  tragically taken. In their honor, we will unite. In their memory, we will overcome. When the China Virus hit, we launched the largest national mobilization since
  World War II. Invoking the Defense Production Act, we produced the world's largest supply of ventilators. Not a single American who has needed a ventilator
  has been denied a ventilator. We shipped hundreds of millions of masks, gloves and gowns to our front line healthcare workers. To protect our nation's seniors, we
  rushed supplies, testing kits, and personnel to nursing homes and long term care facilities. The Army Corps of Engineers built field hospitals, and the Navy deployed
  our great hospital ships. We developed, from scratch, the largest and most advanced testing system in the world. America has tested more than every country in
  Europe put together, and more than every nation in the Western Hemisphere COMBINED. We have conducted 40 million more tests than the next closest nation.
• [B] The United States has among the lowest case fatality rates of any major country in the world. The European Union's case fatality rate is nearly three times higher
  than ours. Altogether, the nations of Europe have experienced a 30 percent greater increase in excess mortality than the United States.

                                                                                                                                                                21
Steady rise on producing vaccine in record time, sharp rise on cutting taxes for middle
class and “made in America.”

                                                                                                         B: Cut taxes/made in America

         A: Science, facts, data/Vaccine in record time

      “Under Operation Warp Speed, we have three different                  “I will cut taxes even further for          “Joe Biden's agenda is Made in China.
         vaccines in the final stage of trials right now.”                  hardworking moms and dads.”                   My agenda is MADE IN THE USA.”

• [A] My Administration has a different approach. To save as many lives as possible, we are focusing on the science, the facts and the data. We are aggressively
  sheltering those at highest risk -- especially the elderly -- while allowing lower-risk Americans to safely return to work and school. Most importantly, we are
  marshalling America's scientific genius to produce a vaccine in RECORD TIME. Under Operation Warp Speed, we have three different vaccines in the final stage of
  trials right now, years ahead of what has been achieved before. We are producing them in advance, so that hundreds of millions of doses will be quickly available.
  We will have a safe and effective vaccine this year, and together we will crush the virus.
• [B] He has pledged a $4 trillion tax hike on almost all American families, which will totally collapse our rapidly improving economy and once again record stock
  markets. On the other hand, just as I did in my first term, I will cut taxes even further for hardworking moms and dads, not raise them. We will also provide tax
  credits to bring jobs out of China BACK to America -- and we will impose tariffs on any company that leaves America to produce jobs overseas. We'll make sure our
  companies and jobs stay in our country, as I've already been doing. Joe Biden's agenda is Made in China. My agenda is MADE IN THE USA.

                                                                                                                                                             22
Sharp rises on school choice and pro-life. Lines relatively flat on law-enforcement and
public safety, until Trump says “stand with men and women of law enforcement”

                                         “…a God given right to life.”
                                                                                                      C: Law enforcement and stand with police
             A:School choice

                                                                                                               “My administration will always stand with the
                                          B: Abortion/right to life                                               men and women of law enforcement.”

• [A] Biden also vowed to oppose School Choice and close down Charter Schools, ripping away the ladder of opportunity for Black and Hispanic children.
• In a second term, I will EXPAND charter schools and provide SCHOOL CHOICE to every family in America. And we will always treat our teachers with the tremendous
  respect they deserve.
• [B] Joe Biden claims he has empathy for the vulnerable -- yet the party he leads supports the extreme late-term abortion of defenseless babies right up to the
  moment of BIRTH. Democrat leaders talk about moral decency, but they have no problem with stopping a baby's beating heart in the 9th month of pregnancy.
  Democrat politicians refuse to protect innocent life, and then they lecture us about morality and saving America's soul? Tonight, we proudly declare that all
  children, born and unborn, have a GOD-GIVEN RIGHT TO LIFE.
• [C] When asked if he supports cutting police funding, Joe Biden replied, "Yes, absolutely." When Congresswoman Ilhan Omar called the Minneapolis police
  department a cancer that is "rotten to the root," Biden wouldn't disavow her support and reject her endorsement -- he proudly displayed it on his website. Make no
  mistake, if you give power to Joe Biden, the radical left will Defund Police Departments all across America. They will pass federal legislation to reduce law
  enforcement nationwide. They will make every city look like Democrat-run Portland, Oregon. No one will be safe in Biden's America. My administration will always
  stand with the men and women of law enforcement. Every day, police officers risk their lives to keep us safe, and every year, many sacrifice their lives in the line
  of duty.

                                                                                                                                                               23
In the end?

              24
Biden and Trump got comparable and modest vote shifts after DNC and RNC
acceptance speeches – neither big enough to change race’s structure
               BIDEN VS. TRUMP 2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT
                Democrat Joe Biden              Republican Donald Trump               3rd Party
                      +10                                                       +12
        +36                           +46                         +27                             +15

                              68
   61                                                     58
                                                                                       52
                                                                                                  37
                                                                  31
         25                           22

                  3                             0                          3                             2

         Pre                          Post                        Pre                             Post

         Presidential Vote – Biden DNC Speech                   Presidential Vote – Trump RNC Speech
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