Designing the Transcendent Web The Power of Web 3.0
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Perspective Karim Sabbagh Olaf Acker Danny Karam Jad Rahbani Designing the Transcendent Web The Power of Web 3.0
Contact Information Atlanta Chicago Frankfurt São Paulo Ralph Alewine Eduardo Alvarez Olaf Acker Jorge Lionel Partner Partner Partner Principal +1-404-519-0184 +1-312-578-4774 +49-69-97167-453 +55-11-5501-6200 ralph.alewine@booz.com eduardo.alvarez@booz.com olaf.acker@booz.com jorge.lionel@booz.com Beirut Delhi London Shanghai Ramez Shehadi Suvojoy Sengupta Greg Baxter Andrew Cainey Partner Partner Partner Partner +961-1-985-655 +91-124-499-8700 +44-20-7393-3795 +86-21-2327-9800 ramez.shehadi@booz.com suvojoy.sengupta@booz.com greg.baxter@booz.com andrew.cainey@booz.com Danny Karam Dubai Milan Sydney Senior Associate Karim Sabbagh Enrico Strada Peter Burns +961-1-985-655 Senior Partner Partner Partner danny.karam@booz.com +971-4-390-0260 +39-02-72-50-93-00 +61-2-9321-1974 karim.sabbagh@booz.com enrico.strada@booz.com peter.burns@booz.com Jad Rahbani Associate Olaf Acker Munich +961-1-985-655 Partner Bernhard Rieder jad.rahbani@booz.com +971-4-390-0260 Partner olaf.acker@booz.com +49-89-54525-670 Berlin bernhard.rieder@booz.com Florian Gröne Düsseldorf Senior Associate Dietmar Ahlemann New York +49-30-88705-844 Partner Jeffrey Tucker florian.groene@booz.com +49-211-3890-287 Partner dietmar.ahlemann@booz.com +1-212-551-6653 Canberra jeffrey.tucker@booz.com David Batrouney Principal +61-2-6279-1235 david.batrouney@booz.com David Dedeyan also contributed to this Perspective. Booz & Company
EXECUTIVE The advent of Web 2.0 allowed users to go beyond the passive consumption of Web content, enabling them to participate SUMMARY fully in the actual generation of content on any number of new media. This shift has been a huge boon to businesses, allowing them to mine rich veins of data about the online behavior and activities of consumers, thus boosting both online sales and Web marketing efforts. Yet the next stage of the Web is already on the horizon, and it will offer an entirely new level of connectivity, communications, and information on customers, including their attitudes and preferences. Web 3.0—what we call the tions, and other kinds of information Transcendent Web—has four key filtering. The result for users will be a elements: The Social Web will greatly far more personalized online experi- enhance the capabilities of social net- ence; companies will benefit through working, allowing for more powerful a much greater flow of data they search, location, recommendation, can apply to product development, and similar services. The Semantic marketing and sales, daily operations, Web will connect all the Web’s data and more. and information much more closely, enabling contextually based search Fulfilling the promise of the and research. The Internet of Things Transcendent Web will take time. But will let Web-connected machines of every company should be planning all kinds communicate with each for its arrival by opening business other and with us, creating a rich systems to the increased flow of data, flow of data about their location and investigating new data management status. And thanks to advances in and tagging techniques, and develop- Artificial Intelligence, all this informa- ing the skills and capabilities that will tion can be aggregated and analyzed be needed when the Transcendent to further refine search, recommenda- Web becomes a reality. Booz & Company 1
Key HIGHLIGHTS • The Transcendent Web will build on existing applications and services, creating more effective and personalized recommendation engines, search engines, and social media. • For the Transcendent Web to operate effectively, stakeholders worldwide will need to address issues of technology, security, and scale. • As these challenges are surmounted, the Transcendent Web will change how people work and play, and how THE WORLD OF years in the future, but its outlines are clear. The benefits it will provide users companies use information to WEB 3.0 include the creation of a much more market and sell their products personalized Web experience and the and operate their businesses. automation of many of the services already in use. Businesses, too, will benefit from vastly greater amounts of information about consumers and Imagine a world in which a movie thus the opportunity to market and search on your smartphone turns up sell to them much more directly; they only the kind of movies you like, and will also be able to take advantage only those playing in your neighbor- of the greater operational efficien- hood. In which your behavior, inputs, cies brought about by technologies and interactions on social networks that will keep people, processes, automatically produce lists of recom- and products connected much more mendations, potential friends, even tightly. The Transcendent Web will job offers. In which searching and play a critical role in enabling the rise browsing the Web becomes vastly of what we call Generation C—the more interesting and efficient, with always connected, always communi- results and link suggestions tailored cating digital natives who will come specifically to your interests, and in of age over the next decade1—and in which your “virtual representative,” the digitization of industries as wide- a kind of online personal assistant, ranging as telecom, financial services, keeps working to find you the best and healthcare. information even when you’re offline. The Transcendent Web is still on the This is the world of Web 3.0, or horizon, but it is critical that compa- what we call the Transcendent Web, nies understand what’s coming, and and it will bring profound changes how it will affect their businesses, if to people and businesses alike. The they hope to take full advantage of complete fulfillment of the vision for what it will offer. the Transcendent Web is still several 2 Booz & Company
THE WEB IN By the mid-2000s, however, the “writable Web,” commonly called to estimates from global market research firm IDC, 988 exabytes PERSPECTIVE “Web 2.0,” began to emerge. Thanks of information were created or to new technologies, new front- replicated on the Web, a sixfold end interfaces, and new business increase from just four years earlier. models, users began to participate Worldwide e-commerce revenues will actively in the creation of Web total an estimated $680 billion in content, generating blogs, wikis, 2011, up from $273 billion in 2006, The Transcendent Web is the videos, and other interactive media. according to JPMorgan Chase & culmination of a number of trends The spectacular success of a variety Company.2 And online advertising in technology and culture dating of social media—most notably revenues will hit an estimated $107 back to the Web’s beginnings in the MySpace, and then Facebook and billion in 2011, compared to just early 1990s (see Exhibit 1). The first Twitter—confirmed the role of the $65 billion in 2008, according to decade could be called the “readable user as the effective center of the IDC.3 New Web technologies such as web”—it featured essentially static Web world. E-commerce and online software as a service and Web-based text and photos posted by Web advertising boomed, thanks to supply chain management software producers and passively consumed by growing Web usage and successful have further enabled companies to users. Businesses learned the value of new sales strategies. improve the efficiency and flexibility “having a website,” but the goal of of their operations. such sites was primarily to provide At present, more than 1.4 billion information; indeed, at this stage, people across the globe are connected e-commerce was still in its infancy. to the Web. In 2010, according Exhibit 1 The Web Has Evolved into an Interactive Mechanism for Content and Communications Evolution of the Web 1991 1994 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 2009 Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0 The initial state of the online world, Web Labelled the second generation of the Often referred to as the 1.0 was characterized primarily by the Internet, Web 2.0 was a concept centered Semantic Web, Web 3.0 is electronic publishing of information on enhancing collaboration and still in the process of being through the Internet interconnectivity through the Web defined, but generally alludes to the connection of virtual representatives of real people; the Web 3.0 W3C Wikipedia Google Maps Foursquare transition time line is likely to fall between 2010 and 2020 The World Wide Web Wikipedia is launched, Google Maps is Foursquare is Consortium (W3C) is providing an online launched, launched, founded by Tim encyclopedia whose providing a rich providing users Berners-Lee to develop content is developed Web user location-based interoperable Web directly by users interface based social networking technologies on Ajax abilities World Wide Web Blog MySpace Twitter The World Wide Web is The term blog is coined MySpace is created, Twitter is launched, created by Tim by Peter Merholz, providing a social allowing its users to Berners-Lee and made author of the blog network for users to share brief text-based available publicly Peterme socialize together posts called “tweets” Source: InformationWeek; Thinking Space; Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company 3
KEY ELEMENTS These kinds of services will depend on new Web technologies—most notably languages used to describe different kinds of information and how they OF THE TRAN- the Semantic Web and the Internet of are related. Such technologies will SCENDENT WEB Things—that are significantly more intelligent than current standards. be much better at understanding the relationships between data on the Web, and thus enable far better results The Social Web for those searching and requesting Social networking has grown hugely recommendations on the Web. in popularity in the past several years, and it will continue to be a mainstay The Internet of Things What will the Transcendent Web of the Transcendent Web. Indeed, The Transcendent Web will depend look like? To the degree that it will much of the activity on Web 3.0 will greatly on the growing ability of be an extension of the current Web, take place within the context of social machines to communicate with us Web 3.0 will build on the kinds of media, as the connections among like- and with other machines. More and applications and services that have minded people become strengthened more things are being made Internet- proved so popular in the past few and multiplied through Web 3.0’s enabled—houses, cars, appliances, years. Recommendation engines will new technologies. Recommendations, even clothing—allowing them not just produce much more complete and search, location, and other services to be located through technologies targeted information, based on a will be enhanced and personalized like RFID but to communicate greater knowledge of the habits and by leveraging the massive amounts of richer amounts of information about preferences of users. Search engines data collected on users as they interact themselves. Home appliances that will become more precise and helpful, on social networks. highlight problems for the person taking into account context and repairing them, tags sewn into wording in generating their results. The Semantic Web clothing that allow direct visibility into Thanks to the Web’s greater ability Web services such as search have inventory and pricing information—all to record and store information, all always depended on the specificity of this becomes not just possible but also manner of social media will arise search terms to find accurate results. visible to Web users. to keep users even more tightly New technologies are being developed connected to friends and businesses that will understand on a much Artificial Intelligence alike. And services will arise that deeper level the meaning of the search Ultimately, the Transcendent Web enable users to create avatars to terms people use, and the context in will depend on a high level of perform all these recommendation, which they are used. This in turn will artificial intelligence underlying many search, and social functions for them, enable technologies such as resource Web processes. Using inputs from automatically, depending on highly description framework (RDF) and different sources, including browsing specific preferences. Web ontology language (OWL), Web history, user-specified preferences, 4 Booz & Company
and contextual information such as filters, which in turn further refine that take place behind the scenes. But location, these systems will profile the relevance of searches and other companies looking to take advantage users to better understand both the activities on the Web. of these capabilities must prepare to content and the context of their expand their own customer-facing requests. These inputs will be used to Much of the Transcendent Web will efforts as well (see Exhibit 2). update user profiles and information depend on activities and technologies Exhibit 2 The Evolution Toward Web 3.0 Is Leading to an Enriched and Personalized User Experience Impact of Web Evolution on Users Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0 Producer / Producer / User User Semantics & AI Home Producer WWW User Producer / WWW Producer / Semantics W W W Semantics Car TV User User & AI & AI Semantics & AI Shopping Mobile Producer / Phone User Fridge - Read-only static Web - Read-write interactive Web - Read-write intelligent Web Characteristics - Company-oriented - Community-oriented - Individually oriented Front-end - Low portability (computing equipment) - Medium portability (mobile) - High portability (mobile and consumer - Professionally developed stand-alone - User-developed open applications electronics) applications - User-developed smart applications - Syntax-aware basic browsing and search - Syntax-aware advanced browsing and - Content (semantics)-aware and context- Characteristics capabilities search capabilities aware next-generation browsing and search Back-end - Low data richness (HTML) - Medium data richness (XML) capabilities - Point-to-point / hub & spoke architecture - Service-oriented architecture (SOA) - High data richness (RDF) - Siloed data - Lightly interlinked data - Web-oriented architecture (WOA) and Internet of Things - Worldwide database Note: Anyone or anything that shares information on the Web is considered a producer. Source: Booz & Company Booz & Company 5
MAKING THE Technical Issues The Internet’s current technical Moreover, many of the individual technologies that must come TRANSCENDENT protocol, called IPv4, can together to make up the major WEB A REALITY accommodate only about 4.3 billion Internet device addresses, elements of the Transcendent Web are still relatively immature. Among and it is already running short. them are SPARQL, a language used The Transcendent Web will require to ask questions across diverse many more, but it won’t be able to data resources, and SWRL, which accommodate them until the full is used to define the rules between deployment of IPv6, which will data domains, in addition to RDF The various pieces that will multiply the number of potential and OWL, mentioned above. eventually make up the Transcendent Internet addresses by the billions. Ensuring that they are completely Web are not fully in place, and it Until it is in place, the vision of the interoperable is a highly complex will take some time to ensure that Internet of Things cannot be fully task that may take years to they are. Three areas in particular achieved. Indeed, it is the very push accomplish (see Exhibit 3). continue to present challenges to the to create Web 3.0 that will likely full development of the technology. promote the implementation of IPv6. Exhibit 3 The Shift to the Transcendent Web Will Require the Further Development of Critical Enabling Technologies Visibility and Functionality Blogs Social Networks Websites Wiki 3.0 Social Networks 3.0 Wikis Entertainment 3.0 Search 3.0 Front RSS Feeds Mashups Semantic Web Browser End Virtual Worlds Podcasts Visibility to User Peer-to-Peer Enables Enables Enables Back HTML Flash Microformat Internet of Things End XML Ajax RDF OWL SPARQL SWRL Low (Web 1.0) Medium (Web 2.0) High (Web 3.0) Enabled Web Functionality Source: Booz & Company 6 Booz & Company
Security Issues Scale Issues These issues are real, and could The Transcendent Web will greatly Implementing the Semantic Web will conceivably become serious increase the number of data nodes likely require tagging of much of the roadblocks on the path to the and interconnections among devices, content on the Internet in order to Transcendent Web. But the history of which in turn will increase the risk make it available for semantic and the Internet, a succession of technical of security breaches at any of these contextual analysis. A bottom-up breakthroughs over seemingly many new points. Because much of approach to annotating all the data insurmountable barriers, suggests the Transcendent Web’s success will on the Web is a huge task, and one otherwise. Businesses making long- depend on leveraging sensitive user that may not be feasible at all. One range plans to take advantage of data—preferences, browsing history, possible solution would be to tag Web 3.0 should carefully monitor location, and the like—to create a only newly published data and to progress in all three areas. more personalized Web experience, develop software that could tag old plugging these potential security information automatically by analyz- holes will be critical. ing the language of the content. Because much of the Transcendent Web’s success will depend on leveraging sensitive user data, preferences plugging potential security holes will be critical. Booz & Company 7
IMPACT OF THE Social networking, too, will be trans- formed, becoming even more appealing enabling more targeted marketing, increased sales, and operational effi- TRANSCENDENT and useful to its users. Web 3.0 will ciencies. The Transcendent Web will WEB enable social networks to be automati- cally tailored to the specific needs of become an even more effective tool in all three of these areas. users, bringing them closer to all their connections and relationships, and The huge increase in user data, behav- vastly reducing the time required to ior, and preferences offers marketers a maintain their profiles and keep up great opportunity to attract more con- with ever-changing platform features. sumers to their websites, target their As Web 3.0 comes into being, its effect Platforms such as Origo already allow efforts to particular consumers, gather on both users and businesses will be users to aggregate friends from differ- more information about those consum- profound. It will change how people ent social networks into one interface. ers, and use that information more effi- work and play, and how companies ciently. To do so, they must prepare to use information to market and sell The increasing intelligence of the Web take advantage of the coming Semantic their products, as well as operate their will allow for the creation of virtual Web, optimizing their websites by businesses. representatives that will make the embedding them with search engine– browsing experience easier and more friendly, structured, semantic data to The Personalized Web intuitive. These stand-ins will perform increase traffic. According to Yahoo, The Transcendent Web will present many functions that now must be done websites with search results using such to users a uniquely personalized manually—updating profiles and pref- tags received 15 percent more click- experience. Users will be able to erences, timing searches and requests, throughs than those not using them. find the information they’re looking managing the flow of news and infor- When Best Buy embedded semantics for quickly and precisely. The mation. Virtual representatives will into the descriptions of its online prod- technologies behind the Transcendent make up only part of the Transcendent ucts in 2009, describing not just the Web will be able to understand both Web technologies that will allow users product, but also accessories, delivery the content and the context of user to “pull” information automatically, and payment options, and warranty requests, and provide results carefully replacing the need to “push” requests conditions, its site traffic increased by tuned to user needs. Thanks to out to the Internet. The result will be 30 percent. semantic engines that allow users to the much more efficient management search specific content and location- of time spent on the Web, and a vastly Advertising, too, will be transformed, based queries, both complex, research- more personalized experience. as businesses come to understand and based queries and entertainment take advantage of behavioral advertis- searches such as those for movies The Business-friendly Web ing, in which the kinds of ads placed and restaurants will generate highly The current Web has been a tremen- on websites will depend on highly spe- relevant results. dous boon for all kinds of businesses, cific information about who’s visiting 8 Booz & Company
the site. The result will be a large boost to further automate many processes, A great many critical elements of in online sales, as companies learn how promote better communication among the Transcendent Web have yet to to target those consumers most likely employees, and enable far more effi- be put in place. We expect, however, to purchase their products. cient manufacturing, supply chain, and that the effort to implement them inventory management practices, as will accelerate through the coming The impact of the Transcendent Web parts, machines, and finished products decade. Exhibit 4 offers our best will also allow companies to reexamine are linked together in the growing estimate of a timetable for when the their entire organizational structures, Internet of Things. Enhanced customer Transcendent Web’s key technologies business and governance processes, feedback will allow companies to boost will be up and running. supply chains, and product innova- innovation and continuously improve tion efforts. Companies will be able product quality. Exhibit 4 A Glance into the Future of the Transcendent Web 2010 + 2015 + 2020 + Era of “Working Nomads”—flexible working times, teleworking, flexible employment relationships Era of “OnLife”—ubiquitous and seamless connectivity at no incremental cost or effort First alliance of online education Era of the “Smart Cloud”—remote data storage, software as a service, distributed computing and training services Era of the “SensorEconomy”—environment-aware devices, More than 50% of location-aware services, near-range ad hoc communication labor force is Gaming surpasses “flexible” in some Era of the “The Internet of Things”—proliferation of reading as #3 in way machine-to-machine interfaces and interaction media consumption Standards are in place for worldwide seamless Era of “Semantic Networks” mobile communication —proliferation of highly Connectivity suite personalized location-based The world is standard in new searches and focused results is fully homes Digital passport First insurance offering modeled is introduced in First national in 3-D M2M interfaces China election with discounts for sensor are standard in health monitoring in M2M car connectivity e-voting new cars is mandatory in first risk groups megacities 2010 + 2015 + 2020 + Source: Roman Friedrich, Matthew Le Merle, Michael Peterson, and Alex Koster, “The Rise of Generation C: Implications for the World of 2020,” Booz & Company, 2010: http://www.booz.com/media/uploads/Rise_Of_Generation_C.pdf Booz & Company 9
Emerging Opportunities Although Web 3.0 is still very much in its infancy, companies in several industries—most notably online retailing, media and entertainment, and the Internet—are already incorporating aspects of it into their operations. Retailers: The more advanced online retailers are adding increasingly sophis- ticated artificial intelligence technologies to their websites in hopes of better tailoring their offerings to customers and improving the customer experience. Amazon, for example, provides recommendations to customers based not only on their browsing and purchase histories but also on the behavior of customers with similar histories. Others in the industry are among the leaders in incorporating elements of the Internet of Things. A number of companies, including Nordstrom and Wal- mart, use RFID tags in their operations to improve transparency into their sup- ply chains, and the industry as a whole is contemplating how to combine the Internet of Things with the Semantic Web as a way to enhance the customer experience and increase cross-selling opportunities as a means of boost- ing sales. Companies like Overstock.com and Best Buy have added RDF technology to their websites, enabling search engines and other applications to make detailed use of the information on each product page. Best Buy is already seeing positive results, gaining consistently higher rankings in search results and a 30 percent increase in traffic. Few online retailers, however, have succeeded to any great extent in integrat- ing advanced social networking capabilities into their websites, most of which are still limited to reviews and like/dislike votes. Media and entertainment: Companies in the media and entertainment busi- ness have begun to use more artificial intelligence technologies in hopes of tailoring their content more tightly to users. Streaming music site Pandora, for instance, bases its song recommendations on a complex algorithm that chooses among 400 musical attributes and 2,000 traits. Other companies in the industry are beginning to make headway in working with social networking companies to promote their entertainment wares. So far, however, no compa- nies in the industry appear to have investigated the benefits of the Internet of Things or the Semantic Web. Social media and database companies: Companies in the Internet busi- ness are the clear leaders in the effort to implement different aspects of Web 3.0. Google, Facebook, and Foursquare, a location-based mobile social network, have already made extensive use of artificial intelligence capabilities to tailor and personalize their customers’ online experience. They are also revolutionizing how humans interact with each other, by embedding social interactions into the online browsing experience, as Facebook has done through its tight integration with third-party websites. 10 Booz & Company
These companies are also among the earliest adopters of the Semantic Web: Google, for example, is using microformats such as hReview to refine its search results. And the DBpedia knowledge base now consists of more than 672 million pieces of information linked through RDF, of which 286 mil- lion were extracted automatically from the English edition of Wikipedia and another 386 million were extracted from other language editions. Researchers can now present much more general queries, such as “British musicians,” for instance, and get comprehensive results that never could have been put together in the past. None of these efforts yet comes close to the ultimate promise of the Tran- scendent Web, but they do serve as leading indicators of what is possible (see Exhibit A) Exhibit A Online Retailers, Media and Entertainment Companies, and Internet Firms Are Leading the Way to Web 3.0 Web 3.0 Industry Maturity Measurement Social Web 4 3 2 1 0 The Internet Artificial of Things 0 1 2 3 4 Intelligence Online Retailers Internet Companies Media / Entertainment Semantic Web Source: Booz & Company Booz & Company 11
BE PREPARED Despite the revolutionary potential of the Transcendent Web, the path to its • Structure the data. Move to struc- ture all the company’s data so that implementation will be an evolu- it can be used in different ways tion—one that will be accelerated by both internally and externally (i.e., the rise of Generation C. Still, it will by business partners). This will take time. require the automation of tagging to provide for how data is man- However, companies should not use aged and searched in context. Data that as an excuse to wait and see is instrumental to the vision of the what it will look like once it’s fin- Transcendent Web—the more a ished. Each stage of the journey will company has, and the better it is at bring benefits; companies therefore managing that data, the greater the need to start planning now to reap company’s competitive advantage. those incremental benefits—and to be that much better prepared when all • Develop talent. Create a plan to the pieces are in place. ensure that the company has the skills needed to take advantage In order to get ready for the of today’s needs and tomorrow’s Transcendent Web, companies need opportunities. Keep in mind that to begin now to build the capabili- the skills required will extend ties that will be key to attaining its beyond the technology department benefits. to encompass the entire organiza- tion: It may be easy to find good • Open up to the (Internet) world. programmers who can work with Ensure that every critical busi- new technologies. But it is likely ness system is open and ready to to take a very long time to train securely interface with external traditional marketers to develop systems over Internet protocols. As campaigns based on real-time data the value of customer and transac- analytics. tion data increases, every system must be able to capture and work • Involve customers. Companies with this information in an intel- that have not done so already ligent way. must start now to move their customers from a passive, “lean- • Move to real time. Convert busi- back” approach to a more active, ness systems from today’s often “lean-forward” attitude. Stimulate asynchronous data management an active online dialogue about operating models to real-time company products and services, analytics and processing. All then capture the information pro- internal and external data needs to duced and use it to further refine be available to real-time analytics products and services as well as to engines and automated decision- enhance marketing activities. making processes. 12 Booz & Company
Endnotes 1 Roman Friedrich, Matthew Le Merle, Michael Peterson, and Alex Koster, “The Rise of Generation C: Implications for the World of 2020,” Booz & Company, 2010: http://www.booz.com/media/up- loads/Rise_Of_Generation_C.pdf. 2 http://techcrunch.com/2011/01/03/j-p-morgan-global-e-com- merce-revenue-to-grow-by-19-percent-in-2011-to-680b/. 3 http://www.marketingcharts.com/television/worldwide-internet- advertising-spending-to-surpass-106-billion-in-2011-5068/. About the Authors Karim Sabbagh is a senior Danny Karam is a senior asso- partner with Booz & Company ciate with Booz & Company in based in the Middle East. He Beirut. He specializes in green leads the firm’s communica- ICT, e-government, e-business, tions, media, and technology and IT-enabled transforma- global practice, and specializes tion for the public and private in sector-level development sectors. strategies, institutional and regulatory reforms, large-scale Jad Rahbani is an associate privatization programs, and with Booz & Company in Beirut. strategy-based transformations. He specializes in ICT venture development strategy, large- Olaf Acker is a partner in scale IT-enabled transformation Booz & Company’s Frankfurt for the public and private sec- and Dubai offices. He focuses tors, and business intelligence on business technology design and implementation. strategy and transformation programs for global compa- nies in the telecommunica- tions, media, and high-tech industries. Booz & Company 13
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