Davis Rd North Local Town Centre - Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme - Victorian ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177
Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony Dimasi
November 2013
MacroPlan Dimasi MELBOURNE Level 4 356 Collins Street Melbourne VIC 3000 (03) 9600 0500
Table of contents
Expert witness details ................................................................................i
Introduction ............................................................................................ iii
Summary of conclusions and opinions ......................................................... v
Section 1: Background ..............................................................................1
Site location and regional context 1
Proposed development 4
Planning background 5
Section 2: Trade area analysis ................................................................. 13
Trade area definitions 13
Trade area population 16
Socio-demographic profiles 19
Retail expenditure 22
Section 3: Competition ............................................................................ 27
Existing competition 28
Proposed competition 29
Summary 30
Section 4: Davis Road North LTC potential ................................................. 31
Davis Road North LTC sales potential 31
Supportable retail floorspace 33
Scope for anchor tenants 35
Ultimate centre potential 37
Conclusions 38
Section 5: Tarneit North LTC potential ....................................................... 39
Tarneit North LTC sales potential 39
Supportable retail floorspace 41
Compatibility of DRNLTC and TNLTC 42
Appendix 1 ............................................................................................ 45
This page has been intentionally left blank.
Expert witness details
Name and address of expert
Mr Tony Dimasi
Managing Director, Retail
MacroPlan Dimasi
Level 4, 356 Collins Street
Melbourne Victoria 3000
Expert’s qualifications and experience
• Bachelor of Arts (Hons.), University of Melbourne
• Master of Arts, University of Melbourne
My CV is included as Appendix 1 to this statement of evidence. I have extensive
experience in the field of retail economics and analysis gained over the past
30 years, having provided independent advice on thousands of retail development
projects and proposals throughout all parts of Australia, to a broad range of
clients. This experience includes extensive previous work undertaken throughout
the City of Wyndham, including at Werribee Plaza, Hogans Corner Centre, Tarneit
Gardens Town Centre, Manor Lakes Centre, Wyndham Vale NAC, Featherbrook
NAC, Point Cook Town Centre, Sanctuary Lakes Village as well as the planned
Rose Grange Town Centre and Williams Landing Town Centre.
Expert’s area of expertise
• I have practised as a consulting economic and retail analyst since 1982. During
that time I have worked in all states of Australia and also in New Zealand and
Asia, and have advised on many thousands of retail developments of all types
and sizes.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme i
Statement of Evidence of Anthony Dimasi
Expert witness details
• I have undertaken work on numerous occasions throughout the City of
Wyndham and the surrounding region over many years, relating to both
existing and proposed retail developments. This work has included
assessments of existing and proposed activity centres throughout the
municipality, as I have outlined above.
• I have undertaken specific analyses of the supermarket industry, and of many
hundreds of individual existing and proposed supermarkets, throughout
Australia over the past 25 years. I have also appeared as an expert witness
before various government and ACCC inquiries into the supermarket industry in
Australia, including:
- the 1999 Joint Parliamentary Inquiry into the Australian Retail Sector (the
Baird Inquiry);
- the Inquiry into the Competitiveness of Retail Prices for Standard
Groceries (2008) undertaken by the Australian Consumer and
Competition Commission (ACCC); and
- the 2004 ACT Grocery Inquiry (the Martin Inquiry).
I have made all the inquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and no
matters of significance which I regard as relevant have to my knowledge been
withheld from the Panel.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
ii Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony Dimasi
Introduction
This report presents my independent assessment of the future need and demand
for a shopping/activity centre at the Davis Road North Local Town Centre
(DRNLTC) site within the Riverdale PSP area, located in the City of Wyndham in
Melbourne’s outer west. The primary purpose of this report is to determine the
most appropriate scale and mix of centre that can be supported at the site, in
order to meet future community need and demand. In addition, the report also
examines the compatibility of the proposed DRNLTC with a strong neighbourhood
activity centre to be provided at or near the proposed new train station east of
Davis Road, within the designated Tarneit North PSP area.
I have structured my evidence as follows:
• First, I present a summary of my conclusions and opinions, before the detailed
analysis on which those conclusions and opinions are based, which is then set
out in five subsequent sections.
• Section 1 provides background information for the proposed centre, including
the local and regional context of the site and a brief discussion of the relevant
planning background.
• Section 2 examines the trade area likely to be served by the DRNLTC,
including the current and forecast population levels, the socio-demographic
profile and the retail expenditure capacities of the trade area population. This
section also presents a similar examination for the trade area likely to be
served by the proposed local town centre to the east of Davis Road and north
of the subject centre, adjacent to the proposed new train station. For the
purpose of identification, this centre is referred to as the Tarneit North Local
Town Centre (TNLTC).
• Section 3 summarises the competitive environment within which the DRNLTC
will operate, including both existing and proposed facilities.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme iii
Statement of Evidence of Anthony Dimasi
Introduction
• Section 4 presents my assessment of future need and demand for the
DRNLTC based on estimated market shares of available expenditure which the
centre can reasonably be expected to attract.
• Section 5 examines the potential for the TNLTC, on a similar basis, and then
considers whether the two proposals will be in conflict or be able to operate in
a mutually successful manner.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
iv Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony Dimasi
Summary of conclusions and opinions
• Tarneit is a rapidly developing suburb located in the City of Wyndham,
approximately 25 km west of the Melbourne CBD. Local population growth has
been accommodated in a number of residential estates in the area, including
Tarneit Gardens, The Rise at Tarneit, Claremont Park, Moorookyle,
Manhattan Place, Reflections and The Reserve.
• The proposed Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC) site is located on
the western side of Davis Road, to the south of Leakes Road. Whilst the local
road network is still to be finalised, subject to finalisation of the Precinct
Structure Plan, the centre will be generally easily accessible for surrounding
residents.
• The largest shopping centre serving Tarneit residents (and residents of the City
of Wyndham) is Werribee Plaza. A number of smaller shopping centres are
provided throughout the surrounding region, catering for the food and grocery
needs of residents in their respective localities, including Tarneit West Village,
Wyndham Village and Hogans Corner. Another such centre is currently under
construction at Tarneit Gardens.
• The DRNLTC would integrate well with the surrounding local area, in particular
with the proposed nearby schools and open public space, providing a local
community hub for shopping and other convenience orientated purposes. The
centre is expected to serve primarily the weekly and more frequent
convenience needs of the surrounding local residents, with their higher-order
retail needs to be served in the main by other larger-scale facilities, in
particular Werribee Plaza, Werribee City Centre, and in due course, Tarneit
Major Town Centre.
• Based on results now available from the 2011 Census of Population and
Housing, the defined DRNLTC primary trade area contained some
1,940 residents at 2011, all located on the eastern side of Davis Road. Recent
population growth in the trade area has been very strong, with the majority of
this growth occurring within the Moorookyle estate.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme v
Statement of Evidence of Anthony Dimasi
Summary of conclusions and opinions
• The DRNLTC trade area population is forecast to continue to grow very strongly
over the next 10-15 years, with population growth in the short to medium term
to be accommodated to the immediate east of the DRNLTC. There are also
large parcels of currently undeveloped lands within the trade area, which are
expected to be developed in the future in line with market demand and as the
existing residential lands reach capacity.
• The trade area population is projected to reach around 12,300 people by 2026,
reflecting average annual growth in excess of 13%.
• The socio-demographic profile of the DRNLTC trade area is typical of a
developing outer suburban region, with a high proportion of traditional families
in their early life stages, who are attracted by the affordability of housing in the
area.
• Total retail expenditure generated by the relevant trade area population is
estimated at $31.5 million at 2013, and is forecast to reach $172 million by
2026. The average annual real growth rate in trade area spending over the
forecast period is therefore projected at in excess of 10% between 2013 and
2026.
• The DRNLTC will operate in a relatively modest competitive environment, being
the only planned supermarket anchored NAC to be located within the defined
primary trade area, providing a convenient destination for surrounding
residents. Other retail facilities are planned to locate beyond the trade area,
which will serve their respective local catchments; while the planned Tarneit
West Major Town Centre in the much longer term will serve a sub-regional
catchment, as will the planned Tarneit North Major Town Centre.
• The majority of retail expenditure that the DRNLTC can expect to retain from
trade area residents will be in the take-home food, groceries & packaged liquor
category (FLG). Across the total retail spectrum, the proportion of available
retail expenditure which the centre is forecast to retain from the defined trade
area is estimated to be in the order of 30%.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
vi Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSummary of conclusions and opinions
• At 2020, the estimated potential sales volume for a supermarket at the subject
site would be in the order of $25-26 million (in 2012/13 dollars), indicating a
full scale supermarket could successfully locate at the site by that date, and
possibly even earlier – 2018 would not be unreasonable given the analysis.
• Given the strong continued growth in the region and as the surrounding area
approaches full development, the DRNLTC site could support a retail centre of
approximately 7,500-8,000 sq.m of retail floorspace, plus a significant
provision of supporting non-retail shopfront space (including non-retail outlets
such as banks, travel agency, medical services, real estate agencies and other
services).
• A centre of that scale at the DRNLTC site would be able to effectively service
the future needs of the growing local community, and provide for a convenient
town centre destination for surrounding residents’ daily use.
• A comparable analysis for the Tarneit North Local Town Centre (TNLTC) shows
that it is likely to serve a primary trade area with an even greater eventual
population than the DRNLTC, and will be able to support a retail floorspace
provision that in all likelihood will also be greater than the DRNLTC.
• Development of the two local town centres, at Davis Road North and Tarneit
North, will not only be compatible, but will be essential if the surrounding
residential communities are to be reasonably provided with accessible,
convenience oriented shopping and service facilities.
• The spatial distribution of the proposed new activity centres throughout the
Tarneit West area is appropriate, having regard both to the proposed
population densities that are to be delivered within the various residential
estates that will be developed throughout the area, and the already evident
pattern of neighbourhood/local activity centres within the City of Wyndham.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme vii
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiThis page has been intentionally left blank.
Section 1: Background
Site location and regional context
1.1 Tarneit is a rapidly developing suburb located in the north-western part of
the City of Wyndham, approximately 25 km west of the Melbourne CBD.
Regional accessibility to this outer western region of Melbourne is excellent,
and is provided via the Princes and Westgate Freeways, as shown on
Map 1.1 attached. Local accessibility is provided via a number of north-
south and east-west thoroughfares, including Tarneit, Derrimut and
Sayers Roads.
1.2 The City of Wyndham is one of the fastest growing municipalities in
Australia, with strong growth facilitated by a number of extensive greenfield
residential developments currently underway and planned in the region.
Local population growth has been accommodated in a number of residential
estates in the area, including Tarneit Gardens, The Rise at Tarneit,
Claremont Park, Moorookyle, Manhattan Place, Reflections and The Reserve.
1.3 The largest shopping and activity centre serving Tarneit residents (and
residents of the City of Wyndham) is Werribee Plaza, which contains a small
Myer department store, Big W and Kmart discount department stores, and
Woolworths and Coles supermarkets. A number of smaller activity centres
are provided throughout the north-western part of Wyndham, catering for
the food and grocery needs of residents in their respective localities,
including Wyndham Village, Tarneit West Village, Hogans Corner and Tarneit
Gardens, which is nearing completion.
1.4 The site for the proposed Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC) is
located on the western side of Davis Road, south of Leakes Road (refer
Map 1.2). The site is undeveloped at this stage, with the local road network
still to be determined. However, based on the Precinct Structure Plan
intended for this area, very good accessibility will be available to the site for
surrounding residents, including from residents of the existing and planned
residential areas east of Davis Road.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 1
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 1: Background
Proposed development
1.5 In broad terms the DRNLTC is proposed to incorporate a modern
supermarket together with a liquor store and a supporting provision of retail
specialty space and other non-retail facilities. Given the early planning
nature of this proposal, the centre layout plans have not been finalised as
yet.
1.6 However, it is apparent that the DRNLTC would integrate well with the
surrounding local area, in particular with the proposed nearby schools and
open public space, providing a local community hub for shopping and other
convenience orientated purposes.
1.7 Given the proposed road network in the area, the DRNLTC site will be
generally easily accessible for surrounding residents, and will also have good
linkages to the nearby school and public space, as well as the proposed train
station to its north-east. Davis and Leakes Roads will be major
thoroughfares for the surrounding area, with traffic modelling estimating
that between 35,000-50,000 vehicles per day will travel along each road in
the vicinity of the DRNLTC.
1.8 As a local town centre, the DRNLTC will serve primarily the daily and
convenience needs of the surrounding local residents. Their higher-order
retail needs will be served primarily by other larger-scale facilities, including
the existing Werribee Plaza to the south; and the two future major town
centres planned to the east, at Rose Grange/Tarneit, and west of the
DRNLTC site, both shown on Map 1.2.
1.9 The appropriate scale for the DRNLTC, in order for the centre to fulfil its
role, is considered in more detail in Section 4.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
4 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 1: Background
Planning background
1.10 Three amendments to the City of Wyndham Planning Scheme are/will be
addressing various PSPs in Wyndham North. Figure 1.1 attached, sourced
from the former Growth Areas Authority (GAA), now the Metropolitan
Planning Authority (MPA), illustrates the boundaries for the four PSPs
covering the broad Wyndham North region, as well as the draft structure
plan which is proposed for all of the four PSP areas in question.
1.11 The Tarneit West locality is situated within PSP 91 (Riverdale), which is the
subject of Amendment C176. When completed, PSP 91 will provide the
guiding document for the future development of the area. Based on the PSP,
expected outcomes include:
• Some 12,000 residential lots across 757 hectares of net developable area
• Average residential density of 16 dwellings per net developable hectare
• Estimated capacity population of 34,000 people
1.12 The Tarneit North PSP (PSP 1089) is the subject of proposed
Amendment C177. That PSP provides for:
• 10,000 dwellings, to be provided at varying density levels.
• Average household size of 2.8 people
• Estimated capacity population of 28,000 people
1.13 A third PSP – PSP 1090 (Truganina) – will be the subject of
Amendment C175. The fourth PSP – PSP 1088 (Oakbank) – is in the early
pre-planning stage but I understand there is currently no timeline in place
for its further development.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 5
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 1: Background
Figure 1.1
Wyndham North PSP areas
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
6 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 1: Background
Melbourne West Growth Corridor Plan (MWGCP)
1.14 The Growth Corridor Plans – Managing Melbourne’s Growth documents
prepared by the GAA, are high level integrated land use and transport plans
that provide a strategy for the development of Melbourne's growth corridors
over the coming decades. These plans identify areas for housing, jobs,
transport, town centres, open space and key infrastructure for Melbourne's
newest suburbs. These documents were approved in June 2012.
1.15 The plans for the western corridor are contained in the Melbourne West
Growth Corridor Plan (MWGCP), with the Wyndham region plan shown in
Figure 1.2 attached. The key relevant features to note are as follows:
• The area covered under the MWGCP is expected to ultimately contain
over 290,000 people and be able to accommodate at least 130,000 jobs.
• To improve the future transport network, a Regional Rail Link (RRL) is
now under construction to the north of Werribee, which will carry regional
train services from Geelong and beyond, also enabling improved
metropolitan services for Werribee residents. Three new train stations will
be developed, at Tarneit, Tarneit West and Oakbank, as shown on
Map 1.2.
• A number of existing and new town centres are proposed to service the
growing communities in this western growth corridor, based on a planned
hierarchy as follows:
- Principal Town Centre - A town centre serving a catchment of
100,000 people or more, which provides a broad range of activities
that generate high numbers of trips, including business, retail, services
and entertainment.
- Major Town Centre - A town centre serving a catchment of 20,000 to
60,000 people, and providing a mix of activities which include
businesses, retail, services and entertainment.
- Local Town Centre – A small town centre serving a local
neighbourhood of up to 10,000 people, including retail and non-retail
facilities.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 7
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 1: Background
Figure 1.2
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
8 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 1: Background
• The Werribee Town Centre will be the Principal Town Centre for the
Werribee district, which will be the focus for a wide range of jobs and
services for the broader region.
• Four Major Town Centres are designated to cater for Werribee/Tarneit
residents, which are located at Werribee Plaza and Wyndham Vale (both
existing); and Tarneit and Tarneit West (both planned). The Wyndham
Vale, Tarneit and Tarneit West Major Town Centres will be designed to
integrate with the proposed train stations on the planned Regional Rail
Link.
Growth Corridor Plans – Activity Centre and Employment Planning (ACEP)
1.16 The ACEP document prepared by Essential Economics in November 2011 is
one of the background reports guiding the GAA’s growth corridor plans,
relating particularly to the distribution of activity centres and other
employment land.
1.17 The ACEP provides broad indications of average floorspace provision for
each type of town centre, namely an average floorspace of 10,000 sq.m for
Local Town Centres (including a supermarket of 3,000 – 3,500 sq.m); an
indicative figure of 55,000 sq.m for Major Town Centres (to include discount
department stores and supermarkets); and an indicative approximate figure
of 100,000 sq.m for Principal Town Centres.
1.18 More importantly, for the planning of activity centres, the ACEP states in its
conclusions (page xix):
“Higher-order centres such as PTCs and MTCs will become important
foci for a wider variety of economic activities, and should be
encouraged to attract a range of non-retail uses so that they do not
become overly standardised and one-dimensional. [...] While PTCs
and MTCs will be important as a location for higher-order shopping,
their role in convenience retailing (including supermarket provision)
should not be encouraged at the expense of neighbourhood centres
(LTCs) that are better-placed to provide accessible shopping
locations for the surrounding community.”
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 9
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 1: Background
Draft City of Wyndham Activity Centres Strategy (WACS)
1.19 The draft WACS document was updated in 2012 to guide the future planning
of existing and planned activity centres for the City of Wyndham over the
next 20 years and beyond. The network of activity centres envisaged by the
WACS is shown in Figure 1.3 following. The two new Major Activity Centres
for the north-west region of Wyndham envisaged in the draft WACS are at
Rose Grange and the North-West Tarneit centre, with a network of other
large and small “neighbourhood” centres proposed throughout the region.
1.20 Some of the locations of the planned smaller centres in the WACS are
indicative only, and are not consistent with the draft future urban structure
as depicted in the PSP process.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
10 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 1: Background
Figure 1.3
Davis Road North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 11
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiThis page has been intentionally left blank.
Section 2: Trade area analysis
2.1 This section of the report details the trade area which is likely to be served
by the Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC), including an analysis
of the current and forecast population levels; socio-demographic profile; and
retail spending capacity of trade area residents.
Trade area definitions
2.2 The extent of the trade area (or catchment) that is served by any retail
facility is shaped by the interplay of a number of critical factors, with the
most important being the following:
• The scale and composition of the centre, in particular the major trader (or
traders) that are included within it; the layout and ambience; and the
quality of carparking.
• The proximity and relative attraction of competitive retail facilities,
including the locations, compositions, quality and scale of competitive
centres.
• The available road network and public transport service, which affects the
ease of use and access to the centre.
• Significant physical barriers which are difficult to negotiate or which take
considerable time to cross.
2.3 Taking the above into account, the DRNLTC trade area is expected to be
influenced by the following:
• The role of the centre, which is expected to provide for the local and
convenience needs of immediately surrounding residents.
• The location of the centre, which will be generally easily accessible for the
local population.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 13
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
• The road network in the region, with Leakes and Davis Roads being main
arterials in the region.
• The locations of both existing and proposed competitive retail facilities,
including the proposed Tarneit Gardens Town Centre to the east, and the
future major town and local town centres to the north and west.
• The pattern of residential development within the region, with future
growth expected to occur in all directions around the proposed site.
Trade areas: DRNLTC & TNLTC
2.4 On this basis, the relevant DRNLTC trade area, coloured pink, has been
defined as a primary trade area, as illustrated on the attached Map 2.1,
incorporating the area within approximately 1 km of the subject site and
bounded by the future regional train line to the north-west and Sayers Road
to the south. The eastern portion of the primary trade area includes the
Moorookyle estate and the new Heartlands estate.
2.5 Utilising the information from the Draft Riverdale PSP, I estimate that within
the defined primary trade area for the DRNLTC there is capacity for some
4,150 residential lots. Adopting the current average household size for
residential development in this area as measured at the 2011 Census, of
3.0, the estimated capacity population for this defined primary trade area is
12,300.
2.6 The DRNLTC will also attract some business from the surrounding areas,
which could be considered as secondary sectors for the centre. However, in
light of the planned facilities which are proposed at various locations
surrounding the DRNLTC, including Tarneit Gardens; the Tarneit West Major
Town Centre; the Tarneit South-West LTC; the Tarneit North LTC in
proximity to the proposed train station to the north; and the longer-term
Oakbank LTC to the north-west, the primary trade area has been used
throughout the remainder of this report as the basis for assessment of need
and demand at the DRNLTC.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
14 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
2.7 Map 2.1 also shows, for comparative analysis presented later in this report,
the indicative primary trade area for the TNLTC, defined on a similar basis to
the primary trade area for the DRNLTC. That area is shaded blue.
2.8 Drawing on the Draft Future Urban Structure for the Tarneit North PSP area,
I have estimated that within the defined primary trade area for the TNLTC
the available land can accommodate some 6,200 residential lots, and a
capacity population of approximately 18,563.
Trade area population
2.9 Table 2.1 details the current and projected population levels within the
defined DRNLTC primary trade area. Based on the recently released results
of the 2011 ABS Census of Population and Housing, the trade area
population was 1,940 at June 2011, all located on the eastern side of
Davis Road.
Table 2.1
Davis Rd North LTC & Tarneit North LTC trade area populations, 2011-2031*
Est. pop Forecast population
Trade area 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Est. Capacity
Davis Rd North LTC 1,940 5,420 10,430 12,300 12,300 12,300
Tarneit North LTC 0 450 5,150 11,350 17,000 18,563
Total 1,940 5,870 15,580 23,650 29,300 30,863
Average annual growth (no.)
2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31
Davis Rd North LTC 696 1,002 374 0
Tarneit North LTC 110 940 1,240 1,130
Total 806 1,942 1,614 1,130
Average annual growth (%)
2006-11 2013-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31
Davis Rd North LTC 37.1% 27.1% 14.0% 3.4% 0.0%
Tarneit North LTC 0.0% 55.4% 62.8% 17.1% 8.4%
Total 37.1% 28.6% 21.6% 8.7% 4.4%
*As at June
Source: ABS Census 2011; VIC Department of Planning and Community Development, April 2012; MacroPlan Dimasi
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
16 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
2.10 Table 2.1 also shows the longer term anticipated population levels for the
defined TNLTC primary trade area, although the likely timing of population
growth within that area is much more uncertain at this point than is the case
for the DRNLTC primary trade area.
2.11 Recent population growth in the DRNLTC primary trade area has been very
strong, with average annual growth of around 37% since 2006. The majority
of this growth has been accommodated within the Moorookyle estate on the
eastern side of Davis Road, which is now fully developed.
2.12 The trade area population is forecast to continue to grow very strongly over
the next 10-15 years, with population growth in the short to medium term
to be accommodated to the immediate east of the DRNLTC, within the new
Heartlands estate. This estate by Asset1 has recently started development,
and is expected to contain some 3,300 residents upon completion over the
next 6-8 years. At this stage, more than 250 lots have already been sold,
with around 130-150 lots expected to be sold per year.
2.13 In addition, there are large parcels of currently undeveloped lands within the
trade area, which are expected to be developed in the future in line with
market demand and as the existing residential lands reach capacity.
Development of these various parcels is in the early planning stage.
2.14 The main estimates and assumptions which underpin the population
projections adopted for the undeveloped land in question are the following:
• There are around 230 hectares within the primary trade area, which are
estimated to yield a minimum of 2,600 lots, assuming an average yield of
around 15 dwellings per hectare. However, there is potential for higher
residential densities to be achieved, particularly around local community
hubs and town centres. Therefore, the average yield of 15 dwellings per
hectare which has been assumed in my analysis is considered to be a
minimum level, with greater yields being more than likely.
• Development of the land within the primary trade area west of Davis
Road is assumed to start at around 2014-15, with completion expected
over the following 9-10 years.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 17
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
• The rate of development and sale of residential lots is estimated to
average around 200-250 per year. It is also assumed that the rate of
development will be somewhat lower during the initial years and will
increase over the subsequent years, as the development gathers
momentum. The development rate is then assumed to slow towards the
end of the project.
• The average household size for the new households is assumed at 3. This
figure reflects the current situation as measured by the ABS at the 2011
Census for those parts of the DRNLTC trade area which have been
developed.
2.15 Population growth for the DRNLTC trade area is expected to continue to be
high over the forecast period, with the trade area projected to reach a
population of 12,300 by 2026, reflecting average annual growth of around
13.1%. These projections reflect the minimum anticipated population levels,
based on an average yield of 15 dwellings per hectare.
2.16 There is less certainty around the likely timing of residential development
within the defined primary trade area for the TNLTC, however, the key issue
in that regard is not so much about the timing of development but rather
the trade area population capacity and consequent demand for retail
floorspace. Therefore, the estimated capacity population for the TNLTC trade
area as shown in Table 2.1 is the more important figure. That capacity
population is estimated to be in the order of 18,563.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
18 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
Socio-demographic profiles
2.17 The attached Table 2.2 and Chart 2.1 detail the socio-demographic profile of
the DRNLTC trade area based on the 2011 Census of Population and
Housing, highlighting the following:
• The average age of trade area residents, at 25.6 years, is much younger
than the benchmark for metropolitan Melbourne of 37.3 years, reflecting
an above average proportion of children and residents aged between 20-
39 years old, and a significantly lower than average proportion of older
residents, i.e. a very young family area.
• Income levels are in line with the metropolitan Melbourne average on a
per household basis but below benchmark on a per capita basis,
reflecting the above average household sizes in the trade area and a high
incidence of dual income households.
• There is a lower level of home ownership in the trade area, as compared
with the Melbourne metropolitan average.
• Trade area residents are predominantly Australian born, though with an
above average proportion of overseas born residents.
• A review of family types indicates an above average proportion of
households comprising couples with dependent children, reflecting the
popularity of the region with young families.
2.18 The socio-demographic profile of the DRNLTC trade area is typical of a
developing outer suburban region, with a high proportion of traditional
families in their early life stages, earning below average per capita income
levels. Such families are attracted by the affordability of housing in the area.
2.19 At this point there is no population within the defined primary trade area for
the TNLTC, hence the socio-demographic profile of that area cannot be
determined. In my view, however, it is reasonable to assume, for the
purposes of this analysis, that the socio-demographic profile of the eventual
population within the TNLTC primary trade area will be broadly similar to the
profile of the population within the DRNLTC primary trade area.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 19
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
Table 2.2
Davis Rd North LTC catchment - socio-demographic profile, 2011
Primary Melb Metro
Census item sector avg.
Per capita income $30,524 $35,169
Var. from Melb Metro benchmark -13.2%
Avg. household income $90,624 $91,440
Var. from Melb Metro benchmark -0.9%
Avg. household size 3.0 2.6
Age distribution (% of population)
Aged 0-14 28.3% 18.5%
Aged 15-19 4.0% 6.3%
Aged 20-29 26.0% 15.4%
Aged 30-39 24.9% 15.0%
Aged 40-49 9.8% 14.5%
Aged 50-59 4.9% 12.1%
Aged 60+ 2.1% 18.2%
Average age 25.6 37.3
Housing status (% of households)
Owner/purchaser 54.5% 71.3%
Renter 44.6% 28.0%
Other 0.9% 0.8%
Birthplace (% of population)
Australian born 56.5% 66.7%
Overseas born 43.5% 33.3%
• Asia 21.0% 13.4%
• Europe 5.2% 12.7%
• Other 17.4% 7.2%
Family type (% of households)
Couple with dep't children 56.5% 47.4%
Couple with non-dep't child. 3.9% 8.7%
Couple without children 19.6% 21.0%
One parent with dep't child. 11.6% 8.2%
One parent w non-dep't child. 2.2% 3.8%
Other family 1.4% 1.3%
Lone person 4.8% 9.6%
Source: ABS Census of Population & Housing, 2011; MacroPlan Dimasi
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
20 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
Chart 2.1
Davis Rd North LTC catchment - socio-demographic profile, 2011
Age distribution
30% 28.3%
26.0% Davis24.9%
Rd North LTC catchment Melb Metro Aust. Avg.
25%
19.3% 19.6%
20% 18.5% 18.2%
15.4% 15.0% 14.5% 14.2%
15% 13.8% 13.8% 12.8%
12.1%
9.8%
10% 6.5%
4.0%6.3% 4.9%
5% 2.1%
0%
Aged 0-14 Aged 15-19 Aged 20-29 Aged 30-39 Aged 40-49 Aged 50-59 Aged 60+
Income levels
$120,000
Davis Rd North LTC catchment Melb Metro Aust. Avg.
$100,000 $90,624 $91,440 $88,205
$80,000
$60,000
$30,524 $35,169 $34,467
$40,000
$20,000
$0
Per capita income Avg. household income
Country of birth
80% 74.0%
66.7% Davis Rd North LTC catchment Melb Metro Aust. Avg.
56.5%
60%
43.5%
40% 33.3%
26.0%
20%
0%
Australian Born Overseas Born
Family type
56.5%
60%
47.4% Davis Rd North LTC catchment Melb Metro Aust. Avg.
45.3%
45%
30% 21.0% 23.0%
19.6%
11.6%
15% 3.9% 8.7% 7.7% 8.2% 9.2%
9.6% 10.2%
2.2% 3.8% 3.5% 1.4% 4.8%
1.3% 1.1%
0%
Couple with Couple with non- Couple without One parent with One parent with Other family Lone person
dependent children dependent children children dependent children non-dependent
children
Source: ABS Census of Population & Housing, 2011; MacroPlan Dimasi
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 21
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
Retail expenditure
2.20 Chart 2.2 presents a comparison of the retail spending behaviour of DRNLTC
trade area residents with Melbourne metropolitan averages. Total retail
expenditure per person for the trade area population in 2012/13 is
estimated at $12,764, which is comparable to the Melbourne metropolitan
benchmark.
Chart 2.2
Davis Rd North LTC catchment - retail spending per person, 2012/13*
Total retail
$14,000 12,764 12,703 12,517
Davis Rd North LTC catchment Melb Metro Aust. Avg.
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000 7,108 7,204 7,120
5,656 5,500 5,397
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
Total Food Total Non-food Total Retail
Food
$3,500
2,894 Davis Rd North LTC catchment Melb Metro Aust. Avg.
$3,000 2,807 2,824
$2,500
2,002 2,028 2,035
$2,000 1,695
1,559 1,499
$1,500
$1,000 654 674 762
$500
$0
Fresh Food Other Food & Groceries Packaged Liquor Food Catering
Non-food
$3,000
2,495 Davis Rd North LTC catchment Melb Metro Aust. Avg.
$2,500
2,225 2,241
$2,000
$1,500 1,269
1,297 1,272
932 897 835
$1,000 697
706
633
$500 328 375 352
$0
Apparel Household Goods Leisure General Retail Retail Services
*Including GST
Source: MarketInfo; MacroPlan Dimasi
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
22 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
2.21 Table 2.3 summarises the total retail expenditure capacity of the DRNLTC
trade area population in 2011, and present forecasts of the projected growth
in spending capacity to 2026. All retail spending forecasts presented in this
report are expressed in constant 2012/13 dollars, i.e. excluding retail
inflation, and include GST.
2.22 Table 2.3 also shows my estimates of the retail expenditure capacity of the
TNLTC primary trade area, having regard to the previously indicated
population estimates for that trade area and assuming that the profile of
that population would be broadly similar to the profile of the population
within the DRNLTC primary trade area.
Table 2.3
Davis Rd North LTC & Tarneit North LTC catchments - retail expenditure ($M), 2013-2031*
Year ending Davis Rd North Tarneit North Total
June LTC LTC
2013 31.5 1.1 32.6
2016 57.0 5.1 62.1
2021 134.8 63.6 198.4
2026 172.3 152.6 325.0
2031 183.3 253.4 436.7
Est. Capacity 190.3 287.2 477.5
Average annual growth (2013 - 2031)
$M 8.4 14.0 22.4
% 10.3% 135.0% 15.5%
*Constant 2012/13 dollars & including GST
Source: MarketInfo; MacroPlan Dimasi
2.23 Total retail expenditure generated by the DRNLTC trade area population in
the year to June 2013 is estimated at $31.5 million, and is forecast to reach
$183.3 million by 2031. The average annual real growth rate in trade area
spending over the forecast period is projected to be in excess of 10%.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 23
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
2.24 For the TNLTC trade area, the total available retail expenditure is projected
to increase, from a minimal base at present, to in excess of $150 million by
2026, and more than $280 million, in 2012/13 dollar terms, by the time that
the capacity population is reached.
2.25 Table 2.4 details the indicative projected retail spending of the DRNLTC
trade area population by key commodity group, while Table 2.5 shows
similar information for the TNLTC trade area. These commodity groups are
identified as follows:
• The FLG (food, liquor and groceries) category incorporates expenditure
on food and groceries purchased for consumption at home, including
spending on fresh food and other food & groceries, as well as packaged
liquor. This category represents the primary market for supermarket
business.
• The food catering category includes expenditure on take-away food and
cafés and restaurants, as well as liquor consumed on the premises.
• The combination of the above two categories is total food retail
expenditure.
• The apparel category incorporates spending on fashion, including
women’s, children’s and men’s apparel, footwear, fashion accessories and
jewellery.
• The household goods category includes spending on giftware, homewares
and other furniture, as well as on electrical products and computers.
• The leisure category includes all spending on sporting goods,
music/DVD/games, books, newsagents and stationery, and other film
processing and photography products.
• The general retail category includes expenditure on pharmacy and
cosmetics, florists, pets, toys, phones, as well as on discount variety
products.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
24 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
• The retail services category incorporates spending on hairdressers and
beauticians, optometrists, as well as on clothing alterations, key cutting
and shoe/watch repairs.
Table 2.4
Davis Rd North LTC catchment - retail expenditure by product group ($M), 2013-2026*
Year ending FLG Food Apparel Household Leisure General Retail Total
June catering goods retail services retail
2013 13.7 3.8 3.1 6.1 1.6 2.3 0.8 31.5
2016 24.9 7.0 5.6 11.0 2.8 4.2 1.5 57.0
2021 59.2 17.0 13.0 25.6 6.6 10.1 3.4 134.8
2026 76.1 22.1 16.3 32.1 8.4 13.0 4.4 172.3
2031 81.4 23.9 17.0 33.5 8.9 14.0 4.6 183.3
Est. Capacity 84.9 25.2 17.4 34.2 9.2 14.7 4.7 190.3
Average annual growth (2013 - 2031)
$M 3.8 1.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.7 0.2 8.4
% 10.4% 10.7% 9.9% 9.9% 10.1% 10.6% 10.1% 10.3%
*Constant 2012/13 dollars & including GST
Source: MarketInfo; MacroPlan Dimasi
Table 2.5
Tarneit North LTC catchment - retail expenditure by product group ($M), 2013-2026*
Year ending FLG Food Apparel Household Leisure General Retail Total
June catering goods retail services retail
2013 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
2016 2.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.1
2021 27.9 8.0 6.1 12.1 3.1 4.7 1.6 63.6
2026 67.4 19.5 14.4 28.4 7.4 11.5 3.9 152.6
2031 112.5 33.0 23.5 46.3 12.3 19.4 6.4 253.4
Est. Capacity 128.1 38.0 26.3 51.6 13.8 22.2 7.2 287.2
Average annual growth (2013 - 2031)
$M 6.2 1.8 1.3 2.6 0.7 1.1 0.4 14.0
% 135.1% 135.5% 134.4% 134.4% 134.8% 135.3% 134.8% 135.0%
*Constant 2012/13 dollars & including GST
Source: MarketInfo; MacroPlan Dimasi
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 25
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 2: Trade area analysis
2.26 The information in Tables 2.4 and 2.5 above highlights the growth in
anticipated retail expenditure, within both identified trade area sectors or
catchments, and particularly on FLG. Given these projections, there will
therefore be both need and demand for substantial local town centres to
service the convenience food and grocery shopping needs in particular of
residents of each identified trade area.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
26 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 3: Competition
3.1 This section of the report examines the competitive environment around the
Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC) site. Table 3.1 below
summarises the competitive centres, while the previous Map 2.1 illustrates
their locations relative to the town centre.
Table 3.1
Davis Rd North LTC - schedule of competing retail facilities
Retail Dist. by road from
Centre GLA Major traders Davis Rd North LTC
(sq.m) (km)
Within trade area
n.a.
Beyond trade area
Tarneit Gardens (u/c) 6,000 Woolworths (u/c) 3.2
Tarneit West Village 6,500 Coles (3,800) 4.2
Wyndham Village 13,800 Coles (4,170), Aldi (1,380) 5.8
Hogans Corner 6,000 Woolworths (3,200), Dan Murphy's 6.2
Werribee Plaza 63,000 Myer (4,300), Kmart (8,100), Big W (7,600), 7.3
Coles (3,900), Woolworths (3,500)
Source: Property Council of Australia; MacroPlan Dimasi
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 27
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 3: Competition
Existing competition
3.2 Given the still developing nature of this northern region of Wyndham, there
are at present no existing retail facilities in the immediate area surrounding
the proposed DRNLTC.
3.3 The closest supermarket facilities for local residents are as follows:
• Tarneit Gardens TC – This centre, currently under construction, is located
around 2 km east of the DRNLTC site, within the Tarneit Gardens estate,
and will be anchored by a Woolworths supermarket, together with a
supporting provision of specialty space. The centre is expected to be
completed by late 2013.
• Tarneit West Village (Coles) – This recently developed centre is situated
some 4.3 km south-east of the DRNLTC site. It contains a Coles
supermarket and limited supporting provision of convenience shops,
focused on take-away food.
• Wyndham Village is located around 5.8 km east of the DRNLTC site, at
the north-western corner of Sayers Road and Morris Road. The centre
totals some 13,800 sq.m of retail floorspace and is anchored by Coles
and Aldi supermarkets, together with a Sam’s Warehouse discount
variety store and almost 50 specialty tenants.
• Hogans Corner is located some 6.2 km south-east of the DRNLTC site, at
the north-eastern corner of Hogans Road and Derrimut Road. The centre
is anchored by a Woolworths supermarket and also includes a Dan
Murphy’s liquor store.
3.4 In addition, the largest existing retail facility in the region is Werribee Plaza,
which is the major activity centre serving the north-west region of the City
of Wyndham. The centre is located around 7.3 km south-east of the DRNLTC
site and is easily accessible at the intersection of Derrimut Road and Heaths
Road. Werribee Plaza currently totals around 63,000 sq.m of retail
floorspace, anchored by a small Myer department store, along with Kmart
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
28 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 3: Competition
and Big W discount department stores and Woolworths and Coles
supermarkets. The centre also includes a 10-screen cinema complex.
3.5 There are approved plans for significant further expansion of Werribee Plaza,
as it will consolidate its role as the major shopping centre for the growing
Wyndham region. The expansion is expected to include a new larger Myer
store, as well as additional speciality tenants together with an entertainment
precinct and additional food catering facilities. This expansion will not,
however, have any competitive bearing on the DRNLTC, given its location
and intended role.
Proposed competition
3.6 A number of retail facilities are proposed in the surrounding region, to cater
for the rapid growth in population over the forecast period. The most
relevant retail facilities planned in the region include the following:
• Tarneit West Major Town Centre – The Tarneit West MTC site is located
around 2.8 km south-west of the DRNLTC site. As a designated major
town centre, the site is expected to contain major retailing facilities,
including discount department stores and supermarkets, and other
specialty traders. This centre is likely to draw business from a broad
region, including from the defined DRNLTC trade area. However, the
Tarneit West Major TC will serve a different (higher order) hierarchical
role to the DRNLTC, servicing the major non-food and weekly shopping
needs as opposed to the local and convenience role of the DRNLTC. The
development of this major town centre is also expected to occur in the
much longer term.
• Tarneit Major Town Centre (Rose Grange) – The Rose Grange/Tarneit
MTC sites are located respectively at the south-eastern corner of
Derrimut Road and Leakes Road and immediately north of the planned
train station, within and immediately north of Dennis Family’s Rose
Grange estate, approximately 4 km east of the DRNLTC site. This
combined centre is designated as the sub-regional centre to serve
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 29
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 3: Competition
Wyndham’s northern suburbs. The centre is likely to be developed in
stages and is considered likely to contain at least one discount
department store and 1-2 supermarkets as the primary retail anchors.
The competitive influence of the Tarneit MTC on the DRNLTC will be
minor, given the fairly separate trade areas that they each will serve and
their different hierarchical roles.
Summary
3.7 In summary, the DRNLTC is expected to operate in a relatively modest
competitive environment, being the only supermarket facility located within
the defined trade area, and will provide a convenient destination for
surrounding residents. Other retail facilities are planned to locate beyond
the trade area, which will serve their respective local catchments; while the
planned Tarneit West Major TC in the much longer term will serve a sub-
regional catchment.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
30 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 4: Davis Road North LTC potential
4.1 This section of the report considers the appropriate scale and composition of
the proposed Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC), as well as
examining the centre’s sales potential. Sales potential will be determined by
a combination of factors, which were discussed in the previous sections of
this report and include:
• The location of the centre and the local and regional context of that
location, including the locations of other relevant competitive centres.
• The extent of the trade area or catchment which the centre is designed to
serve or can effectively serve, and the population levels within that trade
area.
• The socio-demographic profile of the trade area population, and the
resultant retail expenditure potential.
• The pattern of urban development, including physical breaks/barriers to
accessibility.
• The available transport routes and the ease of access to the site relative
to its competitors.
Davis Road North LTC sales potential
4.2 The amount of floorspace which can be supported at the DRNLTC, and which
will be appropriate to meet the needs of the trade area population, will be
driven primarily by the level of retail sales which the centre can reasonably
expect to retain from the pool of expenditure generated by the trade area
population.
4.3 Table 4.1 provides an indicative assessment of the volume of sales, by retail
category, which the DRNLTC could reasonably expect to retain from the
trade area population, taking into account the planned nature and likely
scale of the centre, as well as the nature and extent of the trade area.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 31
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 4: Davis Road North LTC potential
4.4 These indicative estimates also take into account the competitive framework
in which the DRNLTC will operate, i.e. its position within the shopping centre
hierarchy. For example, the centre will not play a regional or sub-regional
role serving a broad population such as that of the planned major town
centres at Tarneit and Tarneit West.
4.5 The DRNLTC will however play an important role in the surrounding
neighbourhood, particularly for convenience retailing. It will therefore be
able to retain much of the food and grocery spending of primary trade area
residents, and will also be able to attract significant proportions of trade
area residents’ spending on food catering (take-away food, cafés and
restaurants); general retail (pharmacy, florist, toys, discount variety); and
retail services (key cutting, hair & beauty, clothing alterations, shoe repairs,
etc).
4.6 Table 4.1 takes all of these factors into account in providing indicative
estimates of the sales potential for the DRNLTC by retail category for the
defined trade area, based on estimated market shares of available retail
expenditure, by category, which the centre can attract. These estimated
market shares reflect the typical performance, in my experience, of
local/neighbourhood level shopping centres within their primary trade areas.
Table 4.1
Davis Rd North LTC catchment - potential retained retail expenditure by category ($M), 2013-2031*
Year ending FLG Food Apparel Household Leisure General Retail Total
June catering goods retail services retail
2013 6.8 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.3 9.5
2016 12.4 1.8 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.5 17.3
2021 29.6 4.2 0.3 1.3 1.7 3.0 1.2 41.3
2026 38.0 5.5 0.4 1.6 2.1 3.9 1.5 53.1
2031 40.7 6.0 0.4 1.7 2.2 4.2 1.6 56.8
Est. Capacity 42.4 6.3 0.4 1.7 2.3 4.4 1.7 59.2
% retained 50.0% 25.0% 2.5% 5.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 31%
*Constant 2012/13 dollars & including GST
Source: MarketInfo; MacroPlan Dimasi
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
32 Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiSection 4: Davis Road North LTC potential
4.7 The majority of retail expenditure that the DRNLTC can expect to retain
from trade area residents will be in the take-home food, groceries &
packaged liquor category (FLG), which includes expenditure on food and
groceries purchased for consumption at home, as well as packaged liquor. It
does not include take-away food, café/restaurant expenditure, or liquor
consumed on the premises, all of which fall within the food catering
category. Across the total retail spectrum, the proportion of available retail
expenditure which the centre is forecast to retain from the defined trade
area is in the order of 30%, as shown in Table 4.1.
Supportable retail floorspace
4.8 Having addressed the market capture which the DRNLTC is considered able
to achieve, Table 4.2 provides indicative estimates of the amounts of
supportable retail floorspace for the DRNLTC on a year on year basis, taking
into account the estimated levels of expenditure which the DRNLTC is
considered likely to retain.
4.9 Floorspace figures in Table 4.2 are calculated by applying an average Retail
Turnover Density (RTD) to the estimated available retail sales volume. The
RTD is simply the level of sales per sq.m which it is considered new retailers
at the proposed DRNLTC would need to achieve in order to create a
successful town centre. Adopted RTD levels range from $8,000 per sq.m for
retailers in FLG (including any supermarket provided) to $4,000 per sq.m for
homewares retailers. The figures show the estimated supportable levels of
floorspace, including any major (e.g. supermarket) or mini-major stores
floorspace. The RTDs which I have adopted reflect sound, successful trading
levels, based on my experience of the trading performances of typical
retailers across each of the retail categories indicated in Table 4.2, and also
of typical shopping centres and other retailing.
Davis Rd North Local Town Centre
Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme 33
Statement of Evidence of Anthony DimasiYou can also read
