Cus A Delicacy That Can Wait - Edelweiss Research
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
November 2021 Initiating Coverage Zomato f cus A Delicacy That Can Wait Pranav Kshatriya Nihal Mahesh Jham +91 22 4040 7495 +91 22 6623 3352 Pranav.Kshatriya@edelweissfin.com Nihal.Jham@edelweissfin.com Sandip Agarwal Pulkit Chawla +91 22 6623 3474 Pulkit.Chawla@edelweissfin.com Sandip.Agarwal@edelweissfin.com Edelweiss Securities Limited
India Equity Research Internet November 29, 2021 ZOMATO INITIATING COVERAGE KEY DATA Rating HOLD A delicacy that can wait Sector relative Neutral Price (INR) 150 12 month price target (INR) 151 Zomato is the leader in India’s nascent online food delivery business Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 1,117/16.2 96.4/67.8 with a massive growth playfield. The stock’s current price though factors in runaway growth, making it no less than a delicacy. Beating such lofty expectations calls for a structural uptick in its key drivers. INVESTMENT METRICS 335 Adjacencies – side orders – can however add palpable flavour (value) 115 over medium-to-long term considering Zomato’s deep engagement -105 and compelling market power. The company boasts a superior growth -325 -545 profile and quality vis-a-vis global peers, but at 24.3x FY22E EV/sales, Sales Growth EPS Growth RoE PE (%) (%) (%) (x) the stock’s indeed expensive. On balance, we are initiating Zomato at Internet ZOMATO IN EQUITY ‘HOLD’ with a TP of INR151. Key risks: regulations around gig workers, quality of disclosures and execution vis-a-vis archrival Swiggy. FINANCIALS (INR mn) Food delivery business can scale up Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Dishing out customer convenience, online food delivery apps have gained scale Revenue 19,938 43,939 63,733 89,860 EBITDA (4,672) (20,255) (17,351) (12,931) across the globe. After food delivery apps’ 140% CAGR over 2016–19 and a Adjusted profit (8,128) (13,442) (9,957) (6,536) pandemic-led blip in 2020, we expect them to deliver a 22% CAGR over 2019–30. Diluted EPS (INR) (1.5) (1.7) (1.3) (0.8) This would catapult the industry size to USD35bn, or 16.2% of total by 2030, from EPS growth (%) (72.1) 15.4 (27.1) (35.4) 4.2% currently, even topping current penetration in mature markets such as the US RoAE (%) (18.5) (10.8) (6.0) (3.9) (6%), South Asia (10.2%) and China (15.6%). As a pointer, e-commerce with a five- P/E (x) nm nm nm nm EV/EBITDA (x) (260.1) (55.6) (64.8) (86.5) year head start over online food delivery, is logging similar growth rates. Such growth Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 0 is indeed achievable, but sustaining it would require acceleration of GDP growth, urbanisation trends, female workforce participation, etc. PRICE PERFORMANCE Adjacencies can create value—not grocery, maybe cloud kitchen 175 62,000 We believe shelving the grocery business is a good strategic move by Zomato as 155 60,000 supply chains of food delivery platforms complement only those for instant 135 58,000 grocery—a small, less profitable segment of the overall grocery market. We do see 115 56,000 95 54,000 opportunities in adjacencies though: cloud kitchen, table booking, advertisements 75 52,000 restaurant supplies, etc. While Zomato is committed to staying away from cloud Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 kitchens, it can exploit consumer insights to create better products and capture a ZOMATO IN EQUITY Sensex higher share of the value chain, a la private labels in e-commerce. Outlook and valuation: Strong growth priced in; initiate with ‘HOLD’ Explore: We estimate Zomato would clock a lip-smacking 50.6% revenue CAGR over FY21–25, riding a 46.1% CAGR in delivery volumes. As it focuses on gaining scale and market share, we estimate contribution profit/ order would drop to INR7.6 in FY22 (INR20.5 in FY21) and increase to INR16.6 by FY25. Zomato would turn in positive cash EBITDA by FY24E, but would report positive EBITDA in FY26 due to high ESOP costs. Financial model Podcast The stock is trading at 16.7x FY23E EV/sales, a significant premium to global peers due to its superior growth rates and long growth runway. We arrive at a TP of INR151, wherein we value core food delivery at INR140 using DCF and optionality for Corporate access Video adjacencies at INR12. We are initiating coverage with a ‘HOLD’ recommendation and ‘Sector Neutral’ rating along with a TP of INR151. Regulatory risks, execution vis-à- vis versus Swiggy, and quality of disclosures are the key risks to our call. Pranav Kshatriya Nihal Mahesh Jham Sandip Agarwal Pulkit Chawla +91 (22) 4040 7495 +91 (22) 6623 3352 +91 (22) 6623 3474 Pranav.Kshatriya@edelweissfin.com Nihal.Jham@edelweissfin.com Sandip.Agarwal@edelweissfin.com Pulkit.Chawla@edelweissfin.com Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO Executive Summary Zomato’s IPO and its performance since demonstrate public market investors are willing to back a loss-making enterprise if the quality of engagement is high, even if the road to profitability is long. Since the profits are distant, we study long-term growth expectations for the food delivery industry, benchmark it to other countries, and compare it with e-commerce. We infer the food delivery industry might well bulge to USD35bn by 2030, from USD4.2bn in 2019. Even stronger growth is possible, subject to acceleration in GDP growth, urbanisation trends, female workforce participation, etc. “Execution is extremely under-rated. All the big things (strategy) are a sum total Network effect, the overarching driver in online businesses, is actually of small things (execution)” modest in the food delivery business. Accordingly, we expect Zomato Deepinder Goyal. to achieve a large scale with a dominant share of 50%-plus, without Founder & CEO, Zomato any major expansion in take-rates. Value creation, we anticipate, would stem from expansion to adjacencies a la typical high- engagement platforms. Cloud kitchen could be a key adjacency contender, but we are less optimistic on grocery as the food delivery network can address only a small portion of general grocery demand. There are other adjacencies though that can become large in the future, such as advertising, restaurant supplies, restaurant table bookings and bill payments. At FY22E EV/sales of 24.3x and EV/GMV of 11.2x, Zomato is the most expensive listed food delivery business globally. Indeed it offers heady growth potential vis-à-vis globally listed peers. The investor in gourmet worries about the aftertaste though. On balance, we are initiating coverage on Zomato at ‘HOLD’ with a target price of INR151, derived from INR140 for the food delivery business (via DCF) plus INR12 for adjacencies (FY30E EV/sales). Superior growth potential aside, we sniff potential regulations considering the market power and control exercised by online delivery apps at large on gig workers. The shape and form of such regulations is not yet clear, but look quite probable over medium- to-long term. To be sure, markets love Zomato’s delivery story, but in the first few months since listing, its quality of disclosures has been sub-par. If this continues, valuations could take a knock. And also with food delivery apps demonstrating monopolistic nature, Zomato must decisively outdo Swiggy, a well-funded large player chasing it fast in its playfield. 2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO Main course: What will it take to deliver? India is witnessing rapid growth in online food delivery off a low base. Industry reports build in a 35% CAGR over 2020–25 and a 22% CAGR over 2025–30. At this rate, online food delivery will grow to a USD35bn industry by 2030, from USD4.2bn in 2019. Meanwhile, the contribution of food delivery to restaurant business is expected to increase from 6.5% in 2019 to 16.2% by 2030, which is much higher than current penetration in more mature markets such as US (6%), South Asia (10.2%), and China (15.6%). E-commerce is witnessing similar deceleration trends as the base increased. Considering these factors, we believe current growth forecasts capture potential upside in the prevailing context, and bettering them would require acceleration in GDP growth, urbanisation trends, female workforce participation, etc. Side orders: Adjacencies drive value creation in platform business High-engagement platforms can create significant value outside their core expertise as they are extremely important for consumers for a certain function, which gives them an opportunity to expand into adjacent areas and address a larger market. We believe cloud kitchen could be a large opportunity for food delivery platforms considering their consumer insights. We view this as an opportunity similar to what private labels are to e-commerce. Globally, most food delivery apps have expanded into grocery delivery. Zomato tried too, but it has scaled back. Even so, it may attempt such a foray again with Grofers. Given point-to-point last-mile supply chain of food delivery aggregators, their addressable market is limited to instant grocery delivery, a small sub-segment of the market with less compelling unit economics. Meanwhile, Zomato has expanded into advertising, restaurant supplies, restaurant table bookings and bill payments, among others, which are currently small but can potentially scale up into larger businesses as the ecosystem evolves. Repeat orders: Focus on order growth; take-rate to stay steady Zomato’s premium valuation is premised on expectations of its long growth runway, and hence there will be a disproportionate focus on volume growth. Despite its leadership in a large market, i.e. India, Zomato is making only 239mn deliveries annually (FY21) versus Meituan’s 10bn, Doordash’s 816mn and JustEat Takeaway’s 588mn. We are building in 1.4bn orders by FY25 and 3.8bn orders by FY30. Considering competition from a well-funded Swiggy, investors might be willing to overlook profitability in the short run, but lack of order growth would raise questions on sustainability of long-term growth and/or execution capability. Both can influence valuations greatly. We expect take-rates to remain stable as restaurants’ increasing disintermediation drive will keep platform power in check. Testing the taste: AOV to dip before rising, discounts to taper down During FY21, AOV shot up to INR397, from INR278 in FY20, as the pandemic catalysed the ordering pattern to family orders from single orders. Moreover, premium dine-in only restaurants adopted online food delivery platforms to keep the business going while consumers preferred them for their focus on hygiene. Small part of it will reverse in FY22, which would cause a dip in AOV to INR381. FY22 onwards though we expect sub-inflationary 1–3% growth in AOV as some inflation and premiumisation will offset higher growth from smaller cities. Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 3
ZOMATO Similarly, discounts too vanished in FY21 as platforms focused on containing costs. Discount per order dipped to INR8.3 in FY21, from INR21.7 in FY20. And as focus on volume growth comes back, we expect discounts to increase to INR15 in FY22 and then taper down to INR7 by FY30. In fact, we expect contribution profit per order to dip to INR7.6 in FY22, from INR20.5 in FY21 and a loss of INR30.5 in FY20. We expect contribution profit per order to inch back to INR22.7 by FY30. Not a stock blend: Network effect modest for food delivery platforms As opposed to typical online platforms wherein network effect predominates, in food delivery platform the network effect is curtailed due to local clustering, commoditised offering and vulnerability to multi-homing. Network effect for food delivery platforms is somewhat similar to ride hailing, and is lower than global platforms such as messaging and social media. Typically a large player dominates the food delivery market with a market share in excess of 50%, even in large markets (US, China). Nevertheless, the large player has limited pricing power and hence low profitability. Restaurants are trying to disintermediate food delivery platforms by going direct, but considering challenges of on-boarding customers on individual restaurant platforms, they may succeed only in gourmet food or high-order value cases. Outlook and valuation: Too full to digest; initiate with ‘HOLD’ Zomato’s global peers trade at 5–12x one-year forward price to sales. The multiple is contingent on growth potential of a market and market share of the player. For Zomato, we use a two-stage DCF model, which yields a value of INR1.1tn (USD15.1bn). Our assumptions: 38% revenue CAGR over FY21–30, 12% FCF growth for FY31–38, and 4% terminal growth. While we do expect higher growth levels to sustain given the market’s relatively nascent stage, at 26.5x FY22E P/S, Zomato’s pricing in full growth. On top of it, the valuation shows high sensitivity to AOV; for instance, a mere INR10 change in AOV swings the valuation by 5%. We believe Zomato’s valuation depends on its ability to sustain and fortify its leadership in the Indian food delivery market. For perspective, archrival Swiggy’s valuation is lower than Zomato’s, but as per latest disclosures, the former is now clocking a similar number of orders. Consequently, Zomato would need to execute better than Swiggy to sustain leadership. Moreover, Zomato’s quality of disclosures leaves a lot desirable, and that may have implications for its valuation in the long term. Hurdles to steady delivery: Tech obsolescence, inefficient allocation Gig economy regulation and unbridled market power: Rapid emergence of a gig economy has thrown up challenges for governments across the globe. Considering the disproportionate market power of platforms, several countries are taking steps to protect the interest of stakeholders of these companies, gig workers included. Any adverse regulations would not only influence profitability and market power, but might fundamentally alter – or even distort – the business model. Other key risks to watch out for: i) increase in competition, leading to weaker unit economics and higher costs; ii) deeper-than-anticipated fall in AOV; iii) delivery and other cost escalations, and the platform’s inability to pass-through such costs; and iv) despite low odds of success in direct delivery, an unlikely success can potentially disrupt food delivery platforms’ business models, including Zomato’s. 4 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO The Story in Charts A global trend: Food delivery as a proportion of restaurant food is on the rise in various geographies 20.0 16.0 16.2 16.5 15.6 12.0 11.8 10.2 10.2 8.0 8.7 6.5 6.0 4.0 3.7 2.2 - 2019 2020 2025 2030 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2025 India US China SE Asia Source: Redseer, company filings, Edelweiss Research ..so has the food delivery GMV in India E-commerce has already matured over years 40 160 30 90 120 24 72 30 80 18 54 (USD bn) (USD bn) (%) (%) 20 40 12 36 10 0 6 18 0 -40 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025E2030E FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P Foodtech GMV (USD bn) YoY growth (%) Ecommerce in India YoY Growth rate (%) Zomato MAUs and MTUs to drive growth… …but AOV to decline in FY22 before recovering 100 45 450 397 395 400 80 36 389 400 381 60 27 (mn) 350 (%) (INR) 40 18 300 282 278 20 9 250 0 - FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E 200 MAU MTU Proportion of transacting users FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E Source: Company, Industry Reports, Edelweiss Research Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 5
ZOMATO Financial Statements Income Statement (INR mn) Balance Sheet (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Total operating income 19,938 43,939 63,733 89,860 Share capital 0 7,692 7,817 7,941 Employee costs 7,408 18,032 21,387 25,310 Reserves 80,987 1,59,329 1,59,471 1,63,842 SG&A expenses 0 0 0 07 Shareholders funds 80,987 1,67,021 1,67,288 1,71,783 Other expenses 15,283 42,695 53,605 67,080 Minority interest (57) (93) (129) (165) EBITDA (4,672) (20,255) (17,351) (12,931) Borrowings 14 14 14 14 Depreciation 1,377 792 848 833 Trade payables 2,972 7,358 9,286 11,764 Less: Interest expense 101 1 1 1 Other liabs & prov 2,192 2,192 2,192 2,192 Add: Other income 1,246 3,029 4,840 4,979 Total liabilities 87,035 1,77,419 1,79,578 1,86,515 Profit before tax (4,904) (18,019) (13,360) (8,786) Net block 234 234 234 234 Prov for tax 13 (4,541) (3,367) (2,214) Intangible assets 15,158 14,791 14,412 14,016 Less: Other adj (3,248) 0 0 0 Capital WIP 0 0 0 0 Reported profit (8,128) (13,442) (9,957) (6,536) Total fixed assets 15,392 15,025 14,645 14,249 Less: Excp.item (net) 0 0 0 0 Non current inv 0 0 0 0 Adjusted profit (8,128) (13,442) (9,957) (6,536) Cash/cash equivalent 9,037 98,298 99,580 1,05,257 Diluted shares o/s 5,366 7,692 7,817 7,942 Sundry debtors 1,299 2,788 4,043 5,701 Adjusted diluted EPS (1.5) (1.7) (1.3) (0.8) Loans & advances 0 0 0 0 DPS (INR) 0 0 0 0 Other assets 31,224 31,224 31,224 31,224 Tax rate (%) 0.3 25.2 25.2 25.2 Total assets 87,035 1,77,419 1,79,578 1,86,515 Important Ratios (%) Free Cash Flow (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Revenue growth (%) (23.5) 120.4 45.0 41.0 Reported profit (8,128) (13,442) (9,957) (6,536) Gross Margin (%) 90.4 92.1 90.4 88.4 Add: Depreciation 1,377 792 848 833 Other cost (% of Rev) 76.7 97.2 84.1 74.6 Interest (net of tax) 101 1 1 1 EBITDA margin (%) (23.4) (46.1) (27.2) (14.4) Others (29,149) 7,539 3,201 5,318 Net profit margin (%) (40.8) (30.6) (15.6) (7.3) Less: Changes in WC 25,434 (2,897) (672) (820) Revenue growth (% YoY) (23.5) 120.4 45.0 41.0 Operating cash flow (10,179) (3,466) (3,213) 1,011 EBITDA growth (% YoY) (79.7) 333.6 (14.3) (25.5) Less: Capex (48) (424) (469) (437) Adj. profit growth (%) (65.7) 65.4 (25.9) (34.4) Free cash flow (10,227) (3,891) (3,682) 574 Assumptions (%) Key Ratios Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E GDP (YoY %) (8.0) 9.0 7.0 7.0 RoE (%) (18.5) (10.8) (6.0) (3.9) Repo rate (%) 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.3 RoCE (%) (10.9) (14.5) (8.0) (5.2) USD/INR (average) 75.0 73.0 72.0 71.0 Inventory days 18 16 9 5 Capex 48.0 424.4 468.5 437.0 Receivable days 23 17 20 20 Tax rate (%) (0.3) 25.2 25.2 25.2 Payable days 538 544 499 369 Payable days 41.7 41.7 41.7 41.7 Working cap (% sales) 134.7 54.5 36.5 25.0 Recievable days 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 Gross debt/equity (x) 0 0 0 0 Dividend per share 0 0 0 0 Net debt/equity (x) (0.1) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) Employee exp (% of rev) 37.2 41.0 33.6 28.2 Interest coverage (x) (60.0) (19,329.8) (16,714.2) (12,641.3) Valuation Metrics Valuation Drivers Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Diluted P/E (x) nm nm nm nm EPS growth (%) (72.1) 15.4 (27.1) (35.4) Price/BV (x) 10.3 7.2 7.3 7.2 RoE (%) (18.5) (10.8) (6.0) (3.9) EV/EBITDA (x) (260.1) (55.6) (64.8) (86.5) EBITDA growth (%) (79.7) 333.6 (14.3) (25.5) Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 0 Payout ratio (%) nm nm nm nm Source: Company and Edelweiss estimates 6 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO Investment Rationale Street exuberant about food delivery growth India is clocking rapid growth in online food delivery—off a low base. Industry forecasts build in CAGRs of 35% over 2020–25 and 18% over 2025–30. These growth rates are similar to the ones for e-commerce. The proportion of food delivery market to restaurant is expected to increase from 6.5% in 2019 to 16.2% by 2030, outdoing current penetration in more mature markets such as the US (6%), South Asia (10.2%) and China (15.6%). At this rate of growth, India’s online food delivery will become a USD30bn industry by 2030, from USD4.2bn in 2019. These growth expectations are indeed steep, but can be met with acceleration in GDP growth, urbanisation, etc. Convenience: A key factor aiding online food delivery market growth India’s online food delivery industry has Food delivery platforms have made online food ordering experience incredibly logged staggering 143% CAGR over 2015– convenient. These platforms have also made on-demand delivery fleet available to 19 to reach to USD4.2bn restaurants, thereby significantly widening their catchment area, as well as making more restaurants available to consumers. This cocktail of convenience and wider catchment has fired up stupendous growth in online food delivery services across the world, and India is no exception. India’s online food delivery industry has logged a staggering 143% CAGR over 2015–19, expanding to USD4.2bn. However, with the pandemic nibbling away at the business, the industry had to swallow a 31% decline in 2020 to USD2.9bn. According to industry estimates, India food As more users are opting for online food delivery and ordering frequency increases, delivery GMV is expected to grow at a 35% growth will remain high. India food delivery GMV is expected to expand at a 35% CAGR over 2020–25 to USD13bn by 2025, CAGR over 2020–25 to USD13bn by 2025, from USD2.9bn in 2020. Furthermore, by from USD2.9bn in 2020 and USD30bn by 2030, the online food delivery industry is expected to reach USD30bn, implying an 2030, implying an 18% CAGR over 2025–30. 18% CAGR over 2025–30. While growth rates look moderate against a staggering 143% CAGR over 2015–19, we have seen growth taper as the base expands. We believe growth rate expectations are fair and a further increase thereof is contingent on rising GDP per capita, rapid urbanisation, higher female workforce participation, etc. We note that female labour workforce participation has a high correlation with expenditure on food away from home. In India, the female labour workforce participation languishes at just over 20% compared with 57% in the US and 61% in China. A disproportionate increase in female workforce participation can drive higher growth for food aggregators. Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 7
ZOMATO India online food delivery GMV and growth rates 40 160 32 120 24 80 (USD bn) (%) 16 40 8 0 0 -40 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025E 2030E Foodtech GMV (USD bn) YoY growth (%) Source: Redseer, Industry Reports, Edelweiss Research India food delivery penetration to accelerate Proportion of food delivery in India is With the pandemic clamping down movements of entire populations, especially in expected to increase to 11.8% by 2025 and public places such as restaurants, adoption of food delivery has accelerated. In India, 16.2% in 2030. contribution of food delivery to restaurants rose to 8.7% in 2020 from 6.5% in 2019. In the US, China and South East Asia, it increased from 2.2% to 6%, 10.2% to 15.6% and 3.7% to 10.2%, respectively. According to Industry forecasts, the proportion of food delivery in India would increase to 11.8% by 2025 and 16.2% in 2030. In China, a mature market that has among the highest proportions of food delivery, the ratio increased to 15.6% in 2020. We note that the proportion of food delivery also depends on GDP per capita. On this count, India ranks much lower than peers and, to that extent, a 16.2% proportion of food delivery by 2030 factors in many industry tailwinds. Food delivery as a proportion of restaurant food in various geographies Source: Redseer, company filings, Edelweiss Research E-commerce growth rates tapered down too While e-commerce in India clocked strong growth until FY16, its growth tapered down as the base expanded (refer to exhibit 8): from a 70% CAGR over FY14–16 to a 27% CAGR over FY16–20. Furthermore, e-commerce growth will fall under 20% for FY20–25 as the industry matures. 8 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO We envisage similar trends in food delivery. In the initial stages, growth is driven by higher adoption by consumers that have the spending power/ability to pay for convenience, but as the pie starts expanding, newer consumers have relatively little spending power; growth rates hence tend to taper down. E-commerce growth in India 30 85 24 68 18 51 (USD bn) (%) 12 34 6 17 0 0 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P Ecommerce in India YoY Growth rate (%) Source: Industry reports, Edelweiss Research Adjacencies can drive value creation While food delivery in itself will start generating cash as it scales up, we believe further value creation will require creating product market fit in adjacent areas. Globally, most food delivery apps are expanding into grocery delivery. However, due to point-to-point last-mile supply chain of food delivery aggregators, their addressable market is limited to instant grocery delivery, a small sub-segment of the market with less compelling unit economics. Zomato has also expanded into advertising, restaurant supplies, restaurant table bookings and bill payments, etc, which complement its business model. Globally, similar companies have ventured into cloud kitchen, on-demand courier service, payments, etc. Instant grocery: Clear synergies with food delivery, but… While Zomato’s core focus is food delivery, it is likely to leverage its customer engagement and market power to foray into adjacent areas such as cloud kitchen, grocery delivery, fitness, nutrition, etc. Globally, many food delivery aggregators have expanded into grocery, especially into instant grocery, leveraging their existing point-to-point supply chains and the delivery fleet’s idle time during non-peak hours. Zomato launched its grocery vertical during the pandemic, but scaled it back and eventually shut down due to unfavourable unit economics. The company has invested USD100mn for a 9.3% stake in Grofers, an online grocer, and may look at leveraging its on-demand delivery fleet for instant delivery of groceries. Grocery and food delivery supply chains are We note that most grocers create their own supply chain, largely on the hub-and- fundamentally different: food delivery has spoke model, to ensure quality control and optimized shipping. Most of the point-to-point supply chain while grocery consumers also prefer planned ordering of most of the grocery items once in a delivery works on a hub-and-spoke model. week/fortnight. At times though, consumers require instant grocery delivery of certain items that can be fulfilled by the local grocer using the food delivery Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 9
ZOMATO aggregator fleet. Global food delivery firms such as Doordash, Deliveroo, Uber Eats and Just Eat Takeaway have also ventured into instant grocery delivery, lured by the large market size and high growth opportunity. For Deliveroo, grocery delivery now makes up 10% of the delivery and has become its fastest growing segment. Most of these platforms have entered the on-demand grocery service segment offering to deliver within a stipulated period of time. Consequently, gross margins for grocery delivery would be higher in this case as discounts and cheap products is not the USP. Despite higher gross margins for this segment (relative to value-grocery), grocery delivery margins continue to be lower than food delivery margins. A case in point is Deliveroo’s gross profit per order for grocery delivery was GBP2.1 compared with GBP2.4 for food delivery. We suspect even a lower EBITDA margin as investments required for onboarding suppliers and into the overall supply chain could be higher. Global food delivery platforms have expanded to grocery delivery Source: Company, Edelweiss Research Zomato may collaborate with Grofers for instant grocery delivery While Zomato followed international peers for its foray into on-demand grocery delivery, it rapidly scaled back, and eventually shut it down, possibly due to poor unit economics and execution challenges. We do see online grocery scaling up significantly in coming years, but we expect this space to be dominated by the specialists (Big Basket, JioMart, DMart, etc), and food delivery players will have limited play due to incompatibility of the two supply chains. To that extent, we believe Zomato’s decision to get out of grocery delivery is prescient. Grofers can utilize Zomato’s delivery fleet for That said, Zomato invested USD100mn for a 9.3% stake in Grofers, an online grocer. instant delivery of groceries, thereby While there are no details on the nature of collaboration or the synergies it can yield, reducing costs for both platforms Zomato may consider availing its on-demand delivery fleet to Grofers for instant delivery of groceries. This will optimise its delivery fleet’s utilisation by increasing turnover during non-peak hours. On aggregate, this can also reduce the delivery cost for Zomato as the delivery personnel will be able to do more deliveries in a day and drive up utilisation. While there is no official announcement, we believe financial investments by Zomato will help build confidence among management teams of the two companies to explore such a tie-up. 10 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO Comparison of food and grocery delivery margin Food Grocery Details Delivery Delivery Commission is higher for food delivery Commission/ Margin (including additional given 20% 18% income) restaurants high dependence on platforms Storing in warehouses and other Delivery/ Supply Chain Costs 10% 15% costs results in higher supply chain costs No Discounts/ Cashbacks 2% 2% difference No Other Variable Costs 3% 3% difference Contribution Margin 5% -2% Source: Edelweiss Research Cloud kitchen foray can create value for food delivery platforms Food delivery apps have dramatically increased the volume of restaurant food ordering. Increased scale, absence of high street retail cost and other overheads of restaurants have made the cloud kitchen business viable and scalable. Cloud kitchen is a backward integration However, cloud kitchens depend greatly on food delivery platforms for their strategy for food delivery platforms to business. This makes cloud kitchens a natural extension for food delivery platforms increase their share of value addition, and as: i) food delivery platforms can leverage ordering data to understand consumers’ hence profit pool preferences about menu items, pricing, etc by area; ii) they can promote cloud kitchens on their (food delivery) platforms to drive traffic; and iii) it helps food delivery platforms capture value of the order not only from ordering and delivery, but also from food preparation. Globally, Doordash, Deliveroo, JET and Uber Eats have already ventured into this business. And the pandemic led to a sharp increase in business for these cloud kitchens. In the US, prior to the pandemic, cloud kitchens accounted for 10–15% of the USD66bn restaurant market, which has now jumped to 21%. According to Redseer, cloud kitchens are expected to expand to a USD2bn industry in India by 2024 from USD400mn in 2019. Zomato has categorically denied opening cloud kitchens as it may present a conflict with restaurant partners. However, its primary competitor, Swiggy has been aggressively expanding in this space over the last couple of years. However, a key difference between the cloud kitchens set up by Swiggy and its global counterparts is that most global businesses collaborate with top restaurants for cloud kitchens, whereas Swiggy runs its own cloud kitchens. Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 11
ZOMATO Global companies – Cloud kitchens Source: Company, Edelweiss Research Deliveroo was one of the first major companies to launch its shared kitchen in London in 2016. It has since gradually expanded to eight countries and operates more than 250 cloud kitchens. The company has tied up with top restaurants such as Blend, Petit Camodge, Tripletta and Santosha while opening its cloud kitchen in Paris. Similarly, Doordash has tied up with the likes of Aria Korean Street Food, Canter’s Deli, Curry Up Now, Milk Bar, The Melt Express, and Chick-fil-A to cater to the areas wherein demand has been high. While Doordash had started experimenting with the concept of ‘Ghost’ or ‘cloud’ kitchens in 2019, it could not find much success as restaurants complained that costs were still elevated. Now, Doordash is absorbing most of the other costs, thereby reducing the burden on restaurants. This model has proven to be more successful with more restaurants now adopting this system, given downside is capped. Another trend catching up in cloud kitchens globally is multiple restaurants using the same kitchen space to dish out their products. This also allows delivery partners to pick up multiple orders from the same location, further improving efficiency. It also allows companies to charge a higher take rate to restaurants as they start providing more value. The added benefit of developing deeper and stickier relationships with restaurants is also no less significant for food aggregators. 12 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO Quality of network effect is modest The network effect in food delivery platforms is curtailed due to local clustering, commoditised offerings and vulnerability to multi-homing. Network effect for food delivery platforms is somewhat similar to ride hailing and is lower than global platforms in messaging and social media. Typically a large player dominates food delivery, even in large markets (US, China); nevertheless, it has limited pricing power and hence low profitability. Restaurants are trying to disintermediate food delivery platforms by going direct, but considering challenges of on-boarding customers on individual restaurant platforms, they may succeed only in gourmet food or high-order value cases. Network effects are weaker in food delivery versus other businesses Network effect is determined by network While almost all platform businesses boast network effect, the quality of network clustering, commoditised or differentiated effect varies across different businesses; it is determined by many factors such as supply, vulnerability to multi-homing and network clustering, commoditised versus differentiated supply, venerability to risk of disintermediation multi-homing and risk of disintermediation. Network effects for food delivery business are modest compared to other industries such as social media, search engines, classifieds, etc. Weak network effects are largely on account of local clustering, that is the customer is concerned about the choice and quality of services in a micro-market and hence as long as he/she has better experience than any other platform, he’ll be loyal to the platform. Network effects in food delivery are modest Commoditized/ Network Vulnerability to Risk of Industry Examples Differentiated Overall Clustering multi-homing disintermediation Supply Social Media Facebook, Twitter 5 5 5 5 20 Search Engine Google, Bing 5 4 5 5 19 Content Platforms Netflix, Hotstar 5 4 4 3 16 B2B Classified IndiaMART, Udaan 4 3 4 4 15 Dating Tinder, Bumble 3 4 4 3 14 E-commerce Amazon, Flipkart 4 3 2 4 13 Matrimony Matrimony, Shaadi 3 4 3 3 13 P2P payment platforms PayTM, GooglePay 4 2 3 3 12 Food Delivery Platforms Zomato, Swiggy 1 3 3 3 10 Ride Hailing Uber, Ola 2 2 2 3 9 Travel portal MakeMyTrip, EaseMyTrip 4 2 1 2 9 Source: Edelweiss Research Network effect helps achieve scale, but pricing power is limited Various factors determine the quality of network effect, such as: i) network clustering (local or global clustering); ii) commoditized or differentiated supply; iii) vulnerability to multi-homing; and iv) risk of disintermediation. Besides, the gradient of customer acquisition cost (CAC) over time series is a good measure of the quality of network effect. Exhibit 13 summarises network effects in case of food delivery platforms. Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 13
ZOMATO Scorecard for quality of network effect for food delivery platforms Parameter Score Remark Food delivery platforms are local in nature as a limited Network clustering Low number of restaurants can cater to a cluster Commoditized or Medium Few exclusive cloud kitchen and restaurants tie-ups differentiated supply Multi-homing is possible but only a few platforms are Vulnerability to multi- Medium there and consumer can be locked into with loyalty homing program Risk of High Risk of disintermediation is real only in high-value items disintermediation Network effect strong enough to drive scale but not Overall Medium pricing power Source: Company Network clustering In terms of network clustering, food delivery platforms are local in nature; these platforms may boast a large number of restaurants, but for a customer, only the number of restaurants that can deliver to them matters. Hence, if in one locality a platform can on-board a higher number of restaurants and a have sufficient delivery fleet to match another platform, consumers in that area will want to migrate to that platform considering more choice is offered. Hence, a higher number of restaurants at overall level does not add value to the network if the size of the network in certain area is weak. Localisation reduces the barrier to entry and hence there have been examples of existing players losing market shares to newer and more efficient players. Despite DoorDash’s late entry in the US food delivery market, it captured a 55% market share on the back of its efficiencies. Food delivery platforms are local in nature Initially, the US too had more localised monopolies, creating an oligopolistic as only a limited number of restaurants can structure at a national level. Grubhub was a leader at the national level. However, cater to a cluster DoorDash scaled up much faster than any other player during the pandemic with better execution—largely around the number of restaurants, delivery speed, etc. This helped DoorDash notch up a nearly 55% market share, whereas other players lost market share. We note that even in larger markets, superior execution can rapidly drive market share. Hence in a market like India, which has a long growth runway, better execution to drive growth is key to value creation. Food delivery market share in US Source: Bloomberg second measure 14 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO Commoditized or differentiated supply Food delivery platforms can differentiate via Food delivery platforms tend to fall somewhere between commoditized and exclusive tie-ups with local popular differentiated supply. On the one hand, the supply is differentiated because there restaurants, but it comes at a cost are many restaurants and types of foods to choose from. Some platforms even have an exclusive partnership with popular restaurants. On the other hand, if all of these food delivery platforms provide more or less the same menu – all restaurants are available across platforms – the supply would get commoditized. The point of differentiation therefore shifts to delivery cost, delivery speed, ease of use and other features. Vulnerability to multi-homing Food delivery platforms are addressing Multi-homing measures the switching cost of a platform. It simply means how easy multi-homing issues by introducing loyalty is it for users to switch among platforms that provide similar services. Food delivery programs platforms may see multi-homing on both – consumer and delivery personnel side. To reduce multi-homing, companies can opt for loyalty bonus or membership offerings that promote frequent ordering on one platform, or they can enter into exclusive partnerships with popular restaurants. Some platforms also introduce their own cloud kitchen, which not only increases choice, but also captures a higher portion of value from the transaction. Swiggy Super and Zomato Pro – A comparative snapshot Swiggy Super Zomato Pro Price INR89 (Bit)/ INR169 (Bite)/ INR329 (Binge) per month INR200/3 months Up to 30% extra off Bit' plan - Five free deliveries per month. on food deliveries up to 40% off on 'Bite' plan - Ten free deliveries per month and one each dining Features 'Buy One Get One free' from restaurant partners experience 'Binge' plan - Unlimited free deliveries and unlimited Faster delivery with 'Buy One Get One free' offers from partner top-rated valets restaurants Cities 80 41 Partner Restaurants > 7,000 >25,000 Source: Company, Edelweiss Research Risk of disintermediation – Low in most cases Since impromptu and frequent ordering Food delivery platforms, for a small fee, offer consumers choice, ease and consistent drives the bulk of order value on food ordering experience, which has led to their rapid adoption among consumers. platforms, we believe the risk of However, for restaurants, food delivery platforms charge a significant commission disintermediation is low for availing a higher catchment area and an on-demand delivery fleet. High take rate impacts profitability of restaurants, especially for high-value orders. Hence, premium restaurants are increasingly looking to connect directly with consumers for food delivery. However, since impromptu and frequent ordering drives the bulk of order value, we believe the risk of disintermediation remains low. Weaker network effect has kept profitability under check Due to local clustering of food delivery platforms, the risk of disruption by a new player remains high. Hence, we note, largest players typically command a market share of 50%-plus in most geographies, but they still operate at low margins. Despite over a 65% market share in the Chinese market, Meituan’s operating profit margin in food delivery is a meagre 4.3%. Most other companies have a negative operating profit. That said, we expect profitability to improve as market matures and larger players create efficiencies of scale, which act as entry barriers for new players. Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 15
ZOMATO Operating margins of global companies are low Source: Company, Edelweiss Research Dissecting disintermediation Restaurants are keen on exploring solutions to reduce their dependence on food delivery platforms considering high take rates that eat into their profitability. SaaS-based ordering platforms such as Dotpe and Thrive are creating ordering platforms for restaurants, along with integration of third-party logistics players for order fulfilment. While deploying these solutions is relatively easy, pushing consumers to adopt direct ordering is the biggest challenge for restaurants. We see large QSRs and chain restaurants with enough resources to drive direct ordering; other restaurants will find it challenging to market their platforms. Direct delivery – Crucial to restaurants’ profitability Shift in restaurant business in favour of Although food delivery platforms help restaurants drive volumes, they also create delivery, from dine-in in the wake of the two challenges: i) food delivery platforms do not share customer data with pandemic has eaten into their profitability restaurants; hence restaurants find it difficult to create patronage; and ii) food delivery platforms charge a high fee, which hurts profitability. High fees is a major challenge for premium restaurants. Many dine-in restaurants do not offer home delivery due to high charges levied by delivery platforms. However, the pandemic has significantly altered the revenue mix for restaurants with dine-in revenue almost entirely going away. In order to address the issue of consumer data and high commissions, some restaurants are working with SaaS platforms such as DotPe and Thrive to create seamless ordering systems. These ordering systems, if required, can also source delivery fleet from third-party delivery partners such as Dunzo, WeFast and Shadowfax. In order to drive usage of their own platforms, restaurants are leveraging social media platforms, such as Instagram and Facebook for popularising their services. Indian Hotels has also launched their own app “Qmin” offering food delivery from their restaurants and kitchens with an order threshold of INR1,000. 16 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO DotPe – Direct delivery Source: Company, Edelweiss Research Discovery and variety – A key challenge for customers In terms of experience, we note consumers are likely to go to the restaurant portal to order only if they are aware of the direct ordering facility, are sufficiently incentivised, and the experience is hassle-free, if not as good as ordering on a food delivery platform. To incentivise, restaurants offer no delivery fee apart from other discounts. Since the address and payment details are stored by SaaS platforms, despite their web-based interface, user experience is reasonably smooth. Discovery is the key challenge for direct While direct-to-consumer has numerous advantages for restaurants, the main delivery challenge continues to discovery. These companies have also realised this problem and have hence tied up with popular payment platforms such as GPay, PhonePe and Paytm. Using these apps, customers can search for restaurants and order directly via these apps without the hassle of searching them individually. Although this aids discoverability, the experience is not as sophisticated as on food delivery platforms since there are no options to sort restaurants according to various parameters, there is no visibility on how much time a restaurant will take to deliver, ratings of the restaurants, etc. Considering payment apps are not sufficiently integrated with restaurants’ and third-party logistics providers, we do not expect discovery platforms to become as sophisticated as food delivery platforms, and thus user experience is likely to be sub-par. Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 17
ZOMATO Direct food ordering is available on multiple platforms Source: Company Consumer experience, outside discovery, is seamless Technology integration for direct delivery works in such a way that SaaS platforms can on-board restaurants in a matter of days by creating digital menus, integrating the billing system and offering third-party delivery platforms on-the-go. For high- ticket size, third-party delivery platform costs work out lower than those charged by delivery platforms. Since SaaS platforms work this through an Application Programing Interface (API), consumers have a reasonably seamless experience with a WhatsApp or SMS update on food dispatch with a link to track delivery personnel in real time. Direct delivery – Impact varies for players Impact of direct delivery will vary for each We believe different segments of restaurants face their own set of challenges – segment of restaurants. resource availability and dependence on food delivery platforms is different – due to which their possibility and success in adoption of direct ordering will be different. Hence, we are evaluating the opportunities and success possibilities for each segment separately. We are broadly classifying restaurants into three categories: i) large QSR chains and cloud kitchens; ii) large chain restaurants; and iii) standalone restaurants and eateries. Large QSR chains and cloud kitchens Large and popular QSR chains such as McDonald’s, Domino’s and KFC as well as large cloud kitchens such as Rebel Foods (which owns brands such as Faasos, Behrouz Biryani and Oven Story), Poncho Hospitality (which owns Box8 and Mojo Pizza), typically have their own apps for food delivery. These companies also possess enough financial, marketing and logistics muscle to provide a full stack of services. Furthermore, they can drive discovery through digital marketing branding campaigns. However, customers are unlikely to download many QSRs or cloud kitchen apps; hence, we argue food delivery platforms would continue to drive the bulk of delivery business. We note that success of direct delivery has been mixed for companies. Domino’s has been particularly successful with ‘30 minutes delivery’ addressing customers’ craving at breakneck speed. Other QSR chains and cloud kitchens are relatively less successful due to their inability to match this speed and other factors. 18 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO However, with food aggregators gaining prominence, most of these companies have been unable to match the ease of use provided by aggregators. User experience for food aggregators has been far superior to those provided by these apps. We believe that this section of restaurants will be able to get 20–30% food delivery on their own platforms. The proportion of direct ordering will be a function of strength of the brand and their execution capabilities. McDonald’s, Domino’s and Faasos food delivery Source: Company, Edelweiss Research Popular chain restaurants Popular chain restaurants are characterised by high patronage, repeat customers and relatively high AOV. They typically rely on dine-in patrons for revenue, but the pandemic changed this dynamic. Since the take rate for aggregators is high, these restaurants have faced a major brunt, having to pay a significant amount to the likes of Zomato and Swiggy. Discovery is not a major issue for these restaurants as they are anyway well-known. Popular chain restaurants have been at the Consequently, these restaurants have been at the forefront of the direct delivery forefront of direct delivery since they have to campaign. While these restaurants do have a certain connect with customers, their pay high take rates to food aggregators. ability to drive these customers to direct delivery portal, by discounting, by marketing will determine their success. We note that chain restaurants will have to invest sufficient marketing resources to drive traffic to their own portal. Some of SaaS based ordering platforms suggest high adoption by restaurants –DotPe claiming 150k partner restaurants and Tribe suggests another 15k. However, we believe that some of these restaurant partnerships would be for features other than delivery, and only a handful of restaurants would promote their own delivery. In terms of cost, Tribe indicated 3% of the GMV as platforms fees and third-part delivery may charge ~INR100 for delivery. Hence, assuming a 10% marketing cost and a 10% discount, own platform breaks even at an order value of INR1,000. This is significantly higher than Zomato, whose AOV would be lower than INR400. Hence, we believe that only a handful of restaurants would opt for standalone delivery platforms, and it would drive 15–20% of their delivery volumes. Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 19
ZOMATO Breakeven analysis – Own platform vis-à-vis Zomato/ Swiggy (INR) Own Platform Zomato/ Swiggy AOV 1000 1000 Platform Fees/ Commission 3% 30% Platform Fees per order 30 300 Delivery Charges 70 Marketing Costs 100 Discount 100 Total Costs 300 300 Source: Edelweiss Research Standalone restaurants Small standalone restaurants are likely to For small standalone restaurants, while implementing order management platform continue to remain dependent on food is relatively easy, diverting orders to their own platforms will be challenging. We aggregators believe that restaurateurs will find it challenging to attract consumers to their platforms. Hence, we believe that this segment is unlikely to see any traction with direct ordering. Consequently, they will continue to remain dependent on food aggregators for both discovery and delivery. We believe that most restaurants are not adequately equipped to drive the marketing campaigns for online ordering platforms. From consumers’ side, while the ordering experience is seamless, discovery will be a challenge. We believe that consumers are likely to order from standalone platforms only in case they are aware exactly what they are looking to order, and are adequately informed about the benefits thereof. Standalone restaurants will require significant marketing support, which smaller restaurants will not be able to manage. Hence, we believe adoption of the standalone platform will be limited to premium restaurants or larger chains that can muscle resources for adequate marketing push. 20 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO Valuation The pandemic has made food delivery platforms all the more relevant for consumers and restaurants alike, leading to a spurt in their valuations. Zomato’s global peers are trading at one-year forward price to sales of 5–12x, depending on market growth and maturity, and their strength in respective markets. Our two-stage DCF yields a valuation of INR1.1tn (USD15.1bn) for Zomato’s food delivery platform business, which implies an FY23E price to sales of 18.3x, significantly higher than global peers, due to its superior growth profile. We do see potential for Zomato to create value from adjacencies over the long term considering its quality of engagement, and are building in another INR90bn (USD1.3bn, INR12/share) value for this optionality. Key valuations risks are: i) Change in AOV, unit economics and ordering frequency are the biggest valuation vectors; a mere INR10 change in AOV can move the valuation by 5%. ii) The quality of disclosures so far has been patchy, which may impact its valuation in the future. iii) Execution vis-a-vis competition. Global peers’ valuations depend on growth profile and market share Meituan, the world’s largest online food delivery company, trades at a 1-year forward P/S of 6.5x. The sharp drop in its valuation has largely been due to the crackdown of the Chinese government on several businesses. DoorDash, which has defied competition over the last year and emerged as the clear leader in US markets, trades at a 1-year forward valuation of 11.3x. We note Meituan reported 17.7% growth in CY20 while DoorDash grew by 226.1%. Delivery Hero trades at 5.5x 1-year forward P/S. All players have varying market positioning and growth rates, and that is driving the difference in their valuations. On EV/EBITDA, Meituan is trading at 311.4x CY22 while Doordash is trading at 157.6x CY22. We note that most of these platforms are currently loss-making; hence valuations are unarguably high if we take their earnings into consideration. MCap/ GMV is a relevant metric to compare In our view though m-cap/GMV is an apt way to compare the valuations of these valuations of companies since they have companies and way more indicative since most of these companies have different different revenue recognition policies. revenue recognition policies. On this yardstick, most companies are trading cheaper at 1–3x at P/GMV, but Zomato is much more expensive at 12.3x. We argue that despite Zomato’s superior growth profile and larger opportunity size, such valuations indicate that growth is adequately priced in. Peer comparison 2020-2024 P/S P/E P/B EV/Revenue EV/EBTIDA P/GOV Market Cap Revenue EBITDA TTM 1 Year- Fwd 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2020 Meituan 2,12,443 37.8 87.2 8.5 6.5 79.1 13.2 13.0 11.4 7.1 5.1 3.9 311.4 54.4 2.4 Doordash 63,441 32.6 64.9 9.7 11.3 244.3 163.7 13.1 12.7 10.8 12.3 9.9 8.1 186.7 130.9 67.1 2.6 Delivery Hero 33,159 64.8 6.6 5.5 24.4 24.9 44.0 5.1 3.4 2.5 390.8 2.4 Just Eat Takeaway 14,663 40.5 19.8 3 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.8 2.1 1.7 64.4 1.3 Zomato 16,196 36.8 21.7 6.9 7.0 6.9 24.3 16.7 11.8 12.3 Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 21
You can also read