Current Trends and Future Shifts in Florida's Housing Market - Lesley Deutch
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Current Trends and Future Shifts in
Florida’s Housing Market
Lesley Deutch Mike Belmont Jim Leiferman Chris Ward
Principal President President Principal
John Burns Real Estate Consulting Minto Communities – USA Mattamy Homes Pablo Creek Land
Session Outline
Quick WHERE:
Florida What
Housing WHAT are markets see
Market they looking strong
Overview for? growth?
WHO are WHEN will WHY/HOW:
the buyers? they buy? How do we
overcome
obstacles to
meet
demand?
FLORIDA HOUSING MARKET
OVERVIEW
Current Housing Market Rankings JBREC MARKET HOTNESS INDEX FOR 50 LARGEST MARKETS
Florida’s Economy Is Growing, Led by Service Jobs
JACKSONVILLE
15,800
ORLANDO
36,800
TA M PA
28,700
WEST PALM BEACH
8,900
SARASO TA
11,200
FT. LAUDERDALE
25,200
FORT MYERS
-1,200
NAPLES MIAMI
4,700 27,900
Florida’s Single-Family Permit Growth by Market
Single-Family Permit Growth (TTM)
Trailing 12 Month, YOY % Change (Dec -17)
Tampa 19.0%
Fort Myers 18.0%
Jacksonville 14.4%
Fort Lauderdale 13.6%
West Palm Beach 12.9%
Orlando 3.9%
Sarasota 2.9%
Naples 2.7%
Miami -20.2%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Florida’s Affordability by Market
Burns Affordability Index (Feb. 2018)
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
Miami 8.7
Naples 8.7
West Palm Beach 8.6
Fort Lauderdale 8.6
Fort Myers 8.4
Sarasota 8.3
Orlando 7.3
Tampa 6.7
Jacksonville 6.2
PANHANDLE
Rising Activity JACKSONVILLE
ORLANDO Growing Rapidly
o Available land at relatively
Job Growth and Diverse
low prices is driving interest o Boomtown in St. Johns
Housing Base
from developers/builders. County
o Diverse employment
o Looking base 55+
to capture
allows for wide range in o Demand TAMPA
is stronger for
SARASOTA
demand
product types and under $400K
Jobs Driven
A Rediscovered
o St. Joe’s Bay-Walton Gem Plan
submarkets
FORT LAUDERDALE o School district drives
o Goodwill “bang
havefor anyour buck” –
impact o Affordability is still impact
housing demand; #1 concern
o Home Infill FORT
prices
and stillMYERS
Condosrising and
especially on the custom o Strong employment growth is
fees rising
demand Growth steady in 2018
o WEST homePALM
Demand side
is strong BEACH
across all increasing overall demand
o product
ooMIAMI
First-time
Rapid
Watch homebuyer
home price
Affordability
segments, is
despite
Increasing public builder o Rising supply has made
strong
rising in Orlando;
appreciation
prices in looking
Estero/ Bonita
Ao Marketpresence
Western Divided
suburbs builders extremely competitive
towards
Beach Osceola, Lake and
o oLimited
Buyers
expanding;
Polk landare
Counties. available
NAPLESretirees,for
affordability second
is o Tampa seeing influx of
o Remains
development
keyhome,Improving an affordability
Rapidly
and families play
younger residents looking for
o Slowdown in condo
in centraldemand
and north Fort
o ooInfill
Rapid increasingly
Competition
Strong price is becoming
rising
escalation
season ahead
jobs
from foreign Myers
buyers
popular
slowed demand
o Single o oTax
family bill sending
Midwest
affordablebuyerbuyers
is still from
o Condo construction aimed
market atin Northern
predominant
Homestead, markets
Doral
end-user (not foreign
o Family
and Hialeah steady.
investors) buyer presence is
increasing
WHO IS THE BUYER?
Growth will be 25-44 & 65+ households.
H O U S E H O L D C H A N G E B Y A G E G R O U P, 2 0 1 6 – 2 0 2 5
10.2 M
3.3 M
-1.0 M
25–44 45–64 65+WHAT ARE THEY LOOKING FOR?
Consumer and Product Insights
SAMPLE SIZES
NATIONAL FLORIDA
23,720 1,867
Respondents include new home shoppers that registered
interest with new home builders online or in their sales office.
Our questions are all focused on future home preference.
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting 2018 Consumer and Product Insights SurveyWhat’s Important to Them?
C O M M U N I T Y F E AT U R E S H O M E F E AT U R E S
SAFETY DESIGN
L O C AT I O N PRICE
STREET APPEAL FUNCTIONWhere Do They Want to Live?
50%
16% 19%
11%
3%
Urban Surban Suburban Simple Suburban RuralWhat’s Their Style?
INTERIORS
49% Somewhat/Very Traditional
Modern Traditional, Traditional,
& Casual Contemporary
EXTERIORS
59% Traditional vs. 32% Modern
Mediterranean, Craftsman, &
TraditionalNext Home Preferences
87% 61% 45% 53%
Desire single-family Desire a 1-story Expect their next Are looking for a
detached home, with 19% home to be larger home with less
wanting 2-story, in size, while 30% than 2,500 square
master down expect equal in size feet
72% 44% 23% 64%
Expect to pay less Want a home with Expect to consider Want a remote-
than $450K a 3-car garage; accommodating an operated guard
51% want a 2-car elderly parent, while gate and expect to
garage 21% expect to have pay $35 more per
an 18+ child month for itWHEN WILL THEY MOVE?
Expect a shift back to the suburbs + retirement surge
F U T U R E C H A N G E I N A D U LT P O P U L AT I O N B Y A G E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 2 5
20–29 30–44 55–64 65-79
Young Adult Family Formation Empty Nester Retirement
6.0
NET NUMBER OF PEOPLE
5.0
4.0
(MILLIONS)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-33 K +8.1 M +655 K +14.5 M
(-0.1%) (+13.1%) (+1.6%) (+40.7%)
-3.0
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
AGEFlorida MSAs Are Big In-Migration Markets
B A S E D O N U - H A U L T R U C K R E N TA L P R I C I N G
Premium Rank
#1 Atlanta $923
In-Migration
#2 Jacksonville $753
Markets
#7 Tampa $539
#10 Orlando $486
#27 San Francisco ($1,317)Mattamy Homes - Tapestry
Minto Communities – Latitude Margaritaville
Jacksonville – Nocatee
WHERE: WHAT MARKETS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GROWTH?
Florida’s Current and Forecasted Permit Issuance (Total SF & MF, Rolling 12 Months)
2017 Permits 2021 Forecasted Permits
O R L AN D O 19,453 21,200
TAM PA 18,292 19,300
JACKSONVILLE 12,596 13,800
M I AM I 10,151 8,200
SARASOTA 8,174 7,940
FORT MYERS 6,943 6,960
FORT LAUDERDALE 5,207 4,300
N AP L E S 4,152 4,180
WEST PALM BEACH 4,090 4,500
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, JBREC
Current Data reflects 12 months ending December 2017; Compiled February 2018. 2021 is JBREC Forecast.WHY/HOW DO WE BUILD FOR
THE NEW BUYER?Is the Answer in New Technologies? Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting 2018 Consumer and Product Insights Survey
THANK YOU
Lesley Deutch Mike Belmont Jim Leiferman Chris Ward
Principal President President Principal
John Burns Real Estate Consulting Minto Communities – USA Mattamy Homes Pablo Creek LandYou can also read
