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Issued: 26 July 2021 JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe July 2021 Continued positive yield outlook Changes in EU crop yield forecasts have been limited, except for sunflowers, for which the forecast increased by 10%, mainly due to upward revisions for Romania, Bulgaria and France, which outweighed the downward revision for Hungary. Maize yield forecasts for Romania and Bulgaria were also revised substantially upward, but offset at the EU level by downward revisions for Hungary and neighbouring countries in southern-central Europe. Western European regions experienced mostly average to wet conditions during the review period (1 June to 20 July), while hot and dry weather was more prominent in south- ern and south-eastern regions. Heavy storm events – sometimes accompanied by hail – occurred in several parts of Europe, locally causing severe damage to crops. At regional level, the exceptionally high rainfall in much of France, Germany, the Benelux countries, Romania and Ukraine is likely to negatively affect grain quality rather than yields. Warmer-than-usual conditions reduced the yield expectations for winter crops in the Baltic countries and Finland. Heatwaves in central Italy, Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia negatively affected the final stages of the growth cycle of winter crops, and the development of summer crops, where not sufficiently irrigated. In Russia, consecutive heatwaves negatively impacted the yield formation of winter wheat and spring cereals, and are also a source of stress for grain maize. Contents: 1. Agrometeorological overview 2. Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions 3. Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring 4. Country analysis 5. Crop yield forecast 6. Atlas Covers the period from 1 June until 20 July
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 1. Agrometeorological overview 1.1. Areas of concern Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, the exceptionally wet conditions in July hampered the harvest of winter crops but had limited impact on yields. In Ukraine and eastern Romania, the overly wet conditions that marked a large part of the spring continued until the end of June, favouring the possible spread of pests and diseases which are likely to reduce yield quality. Much warmer-than-usual temperatures are observed in the Baltic countries and Finland, leading to an acceleration in the development of winter and spring crops during critical stages, thus reducing yield expectations. In Italy, heatwaves in June and July led to shortened grain filling for winter crops in central regions. In Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia, the weather was dry and hot from the beginning of June, thus affecting the later stages of the growth cycle of winter crops and the development of Western European regions experienced average to wet summer crops, where not sufficiently irrigated. A rain conditions, while hot and dry weather was more prominent deficit in some regions of Poland and Slovakia decreased in southern and south-eastern regions. Heavy storm yield expectations for winter crops, while in Bulgaria events – sometimes accompanied by hail – occurred in precipitation is needed to sustain the development of several parts of Europe, locally causing severe damage to summer crops. crops. In Russia, temperatures were much hotter than usual, with Abundant rainfall has been observed since 15 June in consecutive heatwaves that affected both winter and most of France, notably in central and eastern regions. In summer crops. 2
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 1.2. Meteorological review (1 June until 20 July 2021) Warmer-than-usual conditions were mainly observed southern part of European Russia and along the northern in eastern and northern Europe, as well as in European coast of the Black Sea. Anomalies in cumulative Russia. Daily mean temperature anomalies in these precipitation were mainly from +80% to +150%, although regions, with respect to the long-term average (LTA), were in some regions (especially close to the Black Sea) higher mainly from +2 °C to +4 °C (locally up to +6 °C). A higher- values were observed. than-usual number of hot days (daily maximum Drier-than-usual conditions were mainly observed in temperatures of 30 °C or above) was observed in the some areas of the central Mediterranean, eastern and central and eastern Mediterranean, south-eastern and northern Europe, the United Kingdom, south-eastern eastern Europe, and European Russia. In all these areas, Turkey and European Russia. Anomalies in cumulative 15 to 40 hot days were recorded. precipitation were mainly from -80% to -30%, except for Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were recorded Turkey where more pronounced anomalies (from -100% in the rest of Europe, except for large regions in the Iberian to -80%) were recorded. Peninsula, France, Turkey and the areas surrounding the Many large hail, severe wind and heavy rainfall western part of the Black Sea. In these regions, events were observed in several parts of Europe during temperatures did not deviate significantly from the LTA, the analysis period. In mid-July, severe floods affected although locally slightly colder-than-usual conditions were river basins in western Germany, eastern Belgium, south- recorded. eastern parts of the Netherlands, and Switzerland. Wetter-than-usual conditions were recorded in most of western and central Europe, western Turkey, the 3
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 1.3. Weather forecast (24-30 July) Weather conditions will be mainly determined by a large-scale, slowly evolving trough deepening over western and central Europe. This atmospheric pattern will favour intense precipitation events. At the same time, hot air flow from northern Africa to the central Mediterranean is forecast to induce higher-than-usual temperatures. Warmer-than-usual conditions are expected in conditions are forecast in European Russia, with daily southern Italy, eastern and south-eastern Europe, and the mean temperature anomalies mainly from -6 °C to -2 °C. Scandinavian Peninsula. Daily mean temperature Wet conditions are forecast in most of central, northern anomalies (with respect to the LTA) are forecast to be and eastern Europe, the eastern coast of the Black Sea mainly from +2 °C to +4 °C (up to 6 °C in some areas of and the northern part of European Russia. Cumulative Sweden and Finland). In all the above-mentioned regions, precipitation in the forecast period is expected to range except for the Scandinavian Peninsula, 4 to 7 hot days from 20 mm to 60 mm (locally up to 120 mm). with maximum temperature of 30 °C or above are Dry conditions are expected in large regions of the expected. Iberian Peninsula, Italy, south-western France, south- Slightly colder-than-usual conditions are forecast in eastern Europe, Sweden, Finland and Turkey. France, the Benelux countries, some areas in the northern Long-range weather forecast for August, September part of the Iberian Peninsula, north-western Italy and and October points to likely to occur warmer-than-usual central Turkey. Daily mean temperature anomalies from - conditions in most of Europe (very likely in the 2 °C to -0.5 °C are expected. Colder-than-usual Mediterranean region). 5
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 2. Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions Average biomass accumulation for summer crops The map displays the differences between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) cumulated from 1 June to 10 July 2021 and the medium-term average (MTA, 2011-2020) for the same period. Positive anomalies (in green) reflect above-average canopy density or early crop development while negative anomalies (in red) reflect below-average biomass accumulation or late crop development. The map above predominately displays summer crop In Spain and southern Italy, winter cereals have been conditions in southern, central and eastern Europe, as harvested. In northern Italy, summer crops are growing winter crops are in senescence or already harvested. In under favourable conditions, but in easternmost (i.e. Friuli- northern Europe, winter and spring crop conditions stand Venezia Giulia) and westernmost regions, the late sowings out, as summer crop presence in the signal is still due to the cold and wet spring have not yet fully marginal. Positive anomalies prevail in eastern Europe, recovered. In France, the wet conditions in July where vegetative growth was favoured by warm and wet maintained adequate soil moisture levels, giving a conditions. Average biomass accumulation is present in favourable perspective for fair biomass accumulation of most of the central and western countries. The exceptions summer crops, despite their growth being hampered in are some regions in France, Germany, Poland and northern spring by the lower-than-usual temperatures. Winter Ukraine, where biomass accumulation for summer crops crops are reaching maturity after a slightly longer-than- has been delayed since spring and is contributing even usual grain- filling period, apart from north-eastern less to the signal, and in the United Kingdom, where winter regions (e.g. Picardie) where grain filling has just started. crop senescence is starting with some delay. In the Benelux countries and western Germany, warm and wet weather at the end of June and in July favoured 6
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 biomass accumulation of summer crops and sustained Romania, Bulgaria and southern Ukraine, crops are in grain formation of winter crops (e.g. Koblenz), although optimal shape (shown in green on the map). The beginning locally over-wet conditions could result unfavourable. In of June was very wet, especially in central and eastern Poland, winter crop development is in line with last year regions; the weather then turned drier and hotter towards and overall crops are in average condition. The increase in the end of the month, favouring yield formation of winter temperatures recorded after 15 June and since the crops and biomass accumulation of summer crops (e.g. beginning of July may have slightly shortened the initial Sud-Muntenia). In the northern half of Ukraine, grain-filling stage (e.g. Lodzkie). Similar warmer-than- temperatures were constantly warmer than usual, while usual conditions are recorded in the Baltics, boosting crop precipitation became increasingly sparse. Nonetheless, biomass accumulation just around the flowering stages soil moisture was sufficient to sustain winter cereals (e.g. Latvija). In central Europe (including Slovakia, during flowering (early June) and yield formation (late Czechia, Austria and Hungary), a dry spell since early June). In most of central Turkey, a difficult season is June has been accompanied by above-average ending earlier than usual, with a significant biomass temperatures since 20 June, accelerating winter crop deficit (shown in red). In the United Kingdom, the development and thus shortening the grain-filling stage weather in June and July was seasonal to slightly wet, (e.g. Niederösterreich). No negative effects on biomass allowing for proper grain formation although slightly accumulation of summer crops are observed yet. In delayed compared to the average (e.g. East Anglia). 7
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 3. Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring A positive first half of meteorological summer for pastures Conditions have been favourable for pasture biomass accumulation in most EU regions. Some regions were negatively affected by hot and/or dry conditions, but the majority of the regions present above-average pasture productivity. Methodological note: The map above presents the pasture productivity index (PPI) ( 1) for the period from 1 June to 10 July 2021. Positive PPI values indicate above-average biomass accumulation during this period (shades of green), whereas negative PPI values indicate below-average seasonal biomass accumulation (shades of red). The PPI is based on the variations of the fAPAR ( 2) signal around the temporally integrated average. Graphs for selected regions at the end of this section show fAPAR development along the season, as compared to the MTA and last year (2020). Substantially drier-than-usual conditions during the period Austria, western Slovakia, and Hungary, the impact of of review were observed in Slovenia and Croatia, where dry conditions on pasture biomass formation is starting to exceptionally high temperatures exacerbated the negative be visible. Other regions where dry conditions have impacts on pasture productivity. In north-eastern parts of imposed some level of stress on the canopy include (1) PPI, the relative index of pasture productivity, is an indicator of biomass formation based on the integration of the fAPAR remote sensing product of pasture areas (at NUTS level 3) over a period of interest. The index shows the relative position of the current season within the historical series from 2011 to 2020, also referred to as the medium-term average (MTA). (2) fAPAR: the fraction of solar radiation absorbed by green (live) leaves for the purpose of photosynthetic activity. The fAPAR depends on the canopy structure, optical properties of vegetation, atmospheric conditions and angular configuration. 9
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, north-western Poland, where the dry conditions negatively impacted biomass Finland, Baltic countries and southern Romania, even accumulation. though this is not always reflected (yet) in the remote In Austria, Czechia and Slovakia, temperatures in the sensing data main pasture areas were around average. After a dry In Germany, grassland biomass formation is in general beginning to June, abundant precipitation during the last above average, favoured by warm but not too hot dekad of July restored soil moisture reserves in Czechia, temperatures during June and mostly plentiful while in Slovakia and the north-eastern parts of Austria precipitation (with the exception of Brandenburg). For the dry conditions continued to prevail. Pasture biomass region of Schleswig-Holstein, the previously observed accumulation, as indicated by remote sensing, is above radiation deficit has been more than compensated by the medium-term average (MTA) in most of Czechia, but favourable weather conditions, and we can again observe in north-eastern parts of Austria and in western increased pasture productivity. Wide pasture areas in Slovakia the impact of the dry conditions on biomass Nordrhein-Westfalen, Rheinland Pfalz, Baden- formation is starting to be visible. Württemberg and Bayern have been affected by extreme Biomass accumulation in grazing areas in Greece is rainfall events and high precipitation cumulates during the overall in line with the MTA. In the northern regions (Epirus, review period, resulting in oversaturated soils. West Macedonia, Central Macedonia and Thessaly), scarce In eastern France and the Benelux countries, precipitation (from -30% to -80% compared with the LTA) temperatures and radiation were above the LTA in the two is likely to negatively affect pasture productivity. Other first dekads of June; this has been followed by a radiation parts of Greece presented a modest rainfall deficit. deficit and temperatures below the LTA since the last Nevertheless, in Central Greece, Attica and Thessaly, dekad of June. Rainfall was largely above the LTA. Overall, substantial rainfall in early June brought good conditions, conditions for grasslands are positive, with no rain deficit while well-distributed rainfall in July supported adequate or water stress for the period. Notwithstanding the above- pasture growth in Epirus, West Macedonia, Central average biomass formation, in many areas farmers are Macedonia and East Macedonia and Thrace. In Crete, facing difficulties in mowing and harvesting grass with pasture productivity was supported by abundant rainfall adequate moisture content, due to the high frequency of in the first half of June. rain events; some with exceptionally high intensity leading The remaining countries present average to above- to water logging and inundation of low-lying areas. average pasture conditions (Italy, central and eastern In Poland, above-average temperatures prevailed for Romania, Spain, Portugal, southern and western most of June and at the beginning of July. The dry soil France). The red tones showing in some areas of these conditions during the first half of June were alleviated by countries as well as in the Benelux region are attributed precipitation during the last dekad of June and at the to cloud interference. beginning of July. Conditions are generally favourable for pastures, with the exception of the north-western regions, 10
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 11
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 4. Country analysis 4.1. European Union France A poor outlook for winter crops but fair start for most summer crops Weather conditions have been exceptionally rainy during winter crops remain unchanged compared to last month, the analysis period. While the rain surplus is beneficial for with the yield forecast for soft wheat above the 5-year most summer crops, the quality of winter cereals is average. expected to suffer from the excess rain, while the stormy The climatic water balance and rainfall surplus being the weather will contribute to a few losses due to lodging. highest recorded in our database (since 1979) in the northern half, and among the highest in the south-western Rainy and stormy weather prevailed during the analysis regions, yield forecasts for grain maize, sunflowers and period: there was twice the usual amount of cumulative soybean have been revised higher than the trend. Despite rainfall in most of the country, except in Languedoc- a slight delay in crop development due to the mild Roussillon and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. Colder-than- weather, crops will most likely not be exposed to water usual weather was observed, with the exception of the stress later this season considering the rainfall surplus. second dekad of June. Thermal conditions have been Currently, only a few irrigation restrictions are ongoing. favourable for grain filling of winter crops. Nonetheless, The yield forecasts for sugar beet and potatoes were the abundant rainfall observed during the grain-filling revised downward, considering the bad start to the season phase is expected to downgrade grain quality, and the and, for potatoes, high disease pressure due to the rainy stormy weather lodged part of the winter cereals, weather. particularly in the north-east. The yield forecasts for 12
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Germany Difficult start to harvest of winter crops A mostly good grain-filling period allows for a positive moisture contents rapidly depleted. At the same time, yield outlook for winter cereals, although frequent rains grain filling accelerated there, due to the higher-than- are interrupting the start of the winter barley harvest – the average temperatures. June temperature sums centred first crop to be harvested. Over-saturated soils in large over eastern Germany exhibit a clear surplus, and the parts of Germany will make the ongoing harvest of winter development of summer crops (primarily maize) has crops cumbersome. The recent extreme precipitation largely caught up after the earlier delay due to the colder- events are not heavily impacting the overall positive than-usual temperatures and late sowings. July is so far outlook, but locally crop damages are very severe.. markedly colder and wetter, with extreme precipitation events predominately affecting Nordrhein-Westfalen and In general, the weather in June was beneficial for grain Rheinland Pfalz – leading to local crop failures and severe filling of winter crops – warm but not too hot, and with damage. Plentiful precipitation is also recorded in the sufficient precipitation, although often in the form of south, in Sachsen as well as in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. small-scale thunderstorms. This weather pattern changed Negative impacts on quality are likely and further unstable towards the end of the month, when a first short weather is forecast. heatwave ended abruptly with stormy weather. Bayern The yield forecasts are generally well above the 5-year and Baden-Wuerttemberg were most affected; crops were average and the levels in the June forecast are confirmed, locally damaged due to hail and lodging. The situation was with the exception of winter barley which has been slightly somewhat different in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, lowered. The outlook for summer crops is currently Brandenburg and Sachsen, where very little rain was positive. recorded during the first two dekads of June and soil 13
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Poland Hot and dry June hampered optimal grain filling The dry and hot conditions prevailing in June were not winter barley started during the first dekad of July and is favourable for grain filling of winter and spring cereals and currently ongoing, with first field reports indicating rapeseed, resulting in a slight reduction in yield satisfactory results. Harvest of rapeseed and winter wheat expectations. Soil moisture deficits in June hampered is about to begin in southern regions. Warm and humid biomass accumulation of grain maize, while conditions of conditions observed in July may foster the development sugar beet improved. of fungal diseases and compromise grain quality. Locally, there was flooding and damage due to intense storms and The review period was substantially warmer than average, associated winds causing lodging. with temperature anomalies exceeding the LTA by 2 °C. July rains arrived in time to improve soil moisture After an approximately average first dekad of June, conditions prior to maize flowering. Nevertheless, dry temperatures were significantly above average until the conditions in June negatively impacted biomass second dekad of July. A short heat spell, with maximum accumulation of maize and compromised optimal yield temperatures exceeding 30 °C for 5 consecutive days, potential. After the slow start to the season, development was observed in mid-June. Cumulative precipitation in and biomass accumulation of sugar beet have been June was significantly below average. In conjunction with catching up thanks to adequate soil moisture levels in July higher-than-usual temperatures, this resulted in rapid and high solar radiation. However, the warm and wet drying of topsoil and a pronounced soil moisture deficit, weather in July favoured the development of fungal especially in central and western regions. Significant disease. Fields of summer crops were locally damaged precipitation was recorded in early July, mostly in the form after intense storms. of intense storms, with strong winds and hail. As a result, We maintain our yield expectations for summer crops, soil moisture reserves were replenished to adequate while the outlook is slightly reduced for winter wheat, levels. Global radiation was significantly above average. spring barley and rapeseed, due to hot and dry conditions Hot and dry conditions in June shortened the cycle for during grain filling. winter and spring crops, and were suboptimal for grain filling of winter wheat and spring cereals. The harvest of 14
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Ireland Positive outlook maintained by favourable temperatures during grain filling Cereals benefited from close-to-seasonal temperatures in June, but increased markedly in July. Radiation levels and dry conditions during the grain-filling stage. were slightly below average. Favourable weather sustained the positive yield forecasts Crops are slightly delayed but in good condition. Cereals for winter and spring cereals. are at grain-filling stage and moderate temperatures were favourable for grain weight formation. Soil moisture levels Variable weather conditions characterised the review recovered after the rainfall at the beginning of July. Crops period. Temperatures were 3-4 °C warmer than usual are generally healthy although some diseases are during the first half of June, and then were below average reported to have started appearing, particularly in the until the last days of June. At that time and during the first south. The winter barley harvest is expected to start during dekad of July, temperatures remained close to seasonal the last dekad of July, which is around 10 days later than values. Temperatures then increased to above-average usual. Yield expectations remain above the 5-year values until the end of the review period. Temperature average. sums were slightly above average for the period as a whole. Rainfall was below average and particularly scarce 15
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Spain and Portugal Harvest of winter crops underway with overall good conditions The end of June and start of July have seen storm events, In southern areas, temperatures have been oscillating precipitating the harvest of winter and spring crops in towards the colder side of the LTA, especially in some regions. Conditions continue to be favourable for the Extremadura in Spain and Alentejo in Portugal. Rainfall has development of summer crops, especially in the northern been in line with the LTA. part of the peninsula. Our forecasts for winter and spring crops have not changed from last month's Bulletin; i.e. yield forecasts for As mentioned in the June Bulletin, rainfall returned to the rapeseed, rye, barley and wheat are above the 5-year northern and central parts of the peninsula, which includes average but below last year’s top-record level. the country’s main grain-producing areas. Precipitation Maize development is generally favourable, particularly in events were sometimes in the form of hail, which northern parts of the peninsula, despite local concerns due interrupted cereal harvesting in various places of Castilla to soil moisture as mentioned above. Conditions for y León. Field access for summer crops (maize, potatoes) sunflowers have also continued to be favourable overall. was hampered in some areas due to excess water in the Water reservoirs in Spain are estimated to be at 53% of soil. Additionally, the establishment of potato plants is their full capacity (www.embalses.net), below the lower sensitive to disease promoted by combined heat and levels in 2019 and well below the 10-year average of excess soil moisture. In Castilla-La Mancha, dry heat 66%; storage quantity is lower in Extremadura, Castilla-La accompanied the peak of cereal harvesting in early July. Mancha, Andalucia and Murcia. 16
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Italy Fair development of summer crops Wheat suffered from the hot and dry weather in the Windstorms and hail events in July have locally hampered central regions. Growth of summer crops is proceeding harvesting of winter crops and caused lodging of maize. fairly well. Local extreme events have caused significant In a large share of central Italy (Marche, Toscana, Umbria, damage to crops. Lazio), the weather was almost dry, with only 10 mm of cumulative precipitation. Temperatures were between In northern Italy, June was hotter than usual, with the +0.5 °C and +2 °C above average. Such conditions central weeks having several consecutive days with accelerated senescence of winter crops, with negative maximum temperatures above 30 °C. For June as a outcomes for yields. Sunflowers developed favourably whole, there were 10 more days than average with where irrigated, but otherwise suffered from the dry spell maximum temperatures above 30 °C. In July, daily (e.g. in the hilly regions of Marche and Toscana). temperatures moved to more seasonal values, with the In southern regions, the main agricultural season has exception of north-eastern regions where temperatures ended. The harvest of winter crops occurred in mid to late remained slightly above the LTA. Precipitation was very June in most of the regions. The dry and hot weather came scarce in June (80% below the LTA) but has been very too late to cause any significant yield reduction. Yield abundant since 1 July (50-100 mm), with the exception of forecasts for durum wheat were decreased and now all Emilia Romagna where only 10-25 mm has fallen since 1 winter crop forecasts are slightly below the 5-year June. In northern Italy, winter crops reached maturity in average. Yield forecasts for summer crop are in line with June, after accelerated senescence due to the dry and hot the 5-year average. weather. Maize growth is proceeding with average to fair crop conditions, notably in north-eastern regions. 17
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Hungary Dry weather conditions mostly affecting summer crops Following the wet month of May, June was extremely dry, had a slight negative effect on yield potentials, but the especially in the south of the country. Winter crops are in good water supply in May favoured grain filling. The dry good condition, but there are concerns about summer conditions of June also supported good grain quality, and crops. most of the harvest was done before the heavy rains of mid-July. The latter should not have affected the grain After the high rainfall during May, June and the first half quality of non-harvested fields, as the 4 days of rain were of July were particularly dry: cumulative rainfall from 1 followed by several dry and hot days. June to 15 July was 40% to 90% below the LTA. The However, the yield potentials of summer crops are greatest deficit occurred in Del-Dunántúl (south-western negatively impacted, as the country is poorly equipped Hungary), where cumulative rainfall for this period was 16 with irrigation systems. Maize leaves started to wilt and mm, compared with an LTA of 90 mm. Heavy rainfall (up the rains of mid-July may not have been sufficient for the to 50 mm) between 15 and 20 July helped to reduce the crops to recover. In the south of the country, maize had water deficit in the country. Temperatures and global reached flowering stage while stressed (before the onset radiation were above average for most of the reporting of the rains), thus lowering the yield potential. For period. sunflowers, the yield potential was also impacted but to a On balance, the yield outlook for winter crops has slightly lesser extent, in view of its deep rooting system. improved. The high temperatures in June are likely to have 18
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Romania Close to record-high yield forecast for winter wheat The harvest campaign for winter soft wheat is progressing less than half of the LTA values recorded. In contrast, the well, with a very good yield outlook. Hot and dry conditions rest of the country largely experienced seasonal are limiting the growth of summer crops in the temperature conditions. Eastern Romania recorded westernmost part of the country, while abundant rainfall abundant rainfall, with rainfall cumulates regionally with seasonal temperatures provided good growing reaching above 150 mm. conditions in eastern Romania. Soil moisture reserves are adequate in most parts of the country, except the Banat region where drought conditions Western Romania experienced warmer-than-usual prevail. The harvest campaign for winter soft wheat is conditions, with temperature anomalies up to +2 °C progressing well, with a very good yield outlook (more compared with the LTA, and between 6 and 15 more hot than 50% above last year’s level). Summer crops are days (maximum daily temperature above 30 °C) than progressing well, except in Banat region where drought is usual. Maximum daily temperatures recorded in the Banat limiting crop growth. Nevertheless, due to favourable region of western Romania were between 35 °C and conditions in the rest of the country, we have revised the 38 °C, with the longest heatwave lasting nearly 15 days. yield outlook for summer crops up. The same regions also experienced lack of rainfall, with 19
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Bulgaria Positive yield outlook for summer crops, but more rain needed in the south The harvest campaign for winter crops is progressing well, rainfall surplus was recorded in the north-eastern part of with the crop yield outlook remaining positive. Bulgaria, with cumulates above 150 mm. Development of summer crops is progressing well in the Summer crops are generally progressing well, with crop north of Bulgaria, but a soil moisture deficit has started to development close to average. Soil moisture levels are at affect crops in central-southern parts of the country. Due adequate levels in the north of the country (where most to prevailing favourable conditions in the north, the yield arable land is concentrated), while a deficit is negatively forecast for summer crops has been revised upwards. affecting summer crops in parts of southern Bulgaria, due to the lack of rainfall during the analysis period. If Overall seasonal temperatures from 1 June were sufficient rainfall arrives during the grain-filling period, interrupted by a heatwave in the third dekad of June and the negative effects can still be alleviated. The crop yield the beginning of July. Maximum temperatures during this outlook for summer crops has been revised upwards. The event were up to 38 °C in the north-western and central- harvest campaign for winter crops is progressing well, with southern parts of Bulgaria. A rainfall deficit was recorded the crop yield outlook remaining positive. in western and southern Bulgaria, where regionally less than 60 mm was recorded during the analysis period. A 20
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia Very hot and dry June reduced yield potentials Hot and dry weather conditions prevailed from the and early grain filling), compromised optimal yield beginning of June in Austria and Slovakia, shortening grain potentials for winter and spring crops, most notably in filling and compromising yield potentials for winter wheat, Austria and western Slovakia. Early harvest operations for spring cereals and maize. After a dry first half of June, winter cereals began during the first dekad of July, with abundant rains were beneficial for summer crops in satisfactory results reported for winter barley. Our crop Czechia. model indicates that biomass accumulation and storage organ weights have recovered in Czechia over the analysis During the analysis period, daily temperatures were period and are close to seasonal averages, while in Austria significantly above the LTA, with the average temperature and Slovakia these indicators are below normal. anomaly exceeding +2 °C. Heat spells (with maximum Consequently, the yield outlooks for winter wheat in temperatures above 30 °C) were observed for several Austria and Slovakia have been revised slightly days in a row. A rainfall deficit in June, in conjunction with downwards. high temperatures, dried out topsoils, most profoundly in After a cold spring, summer crops had been delayed in Austria and western Slovakia. In Czechia, intense rains at development, but due to the June temperature surplus the end of June alleviated the dry conditions that had have recovered to seasonal values. Soil moisture deficits developed following the rain deficit in the first half of the in June negatively impacted biomass accumulation for month. July brought significant rainfall, which improved grain maize, but rain arrived in time for maize flowering. soil moisture conditions for crops. Solar radiation was Nonetheless, our yield expectations for maize were significantly above average. revised downwards. The warm weather accelerated crop development and, together with June rain deficits (coinciding with flowering 21
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Denmark and Sweden High yield expectations continue in both countries Warm temperatures prevailed in June and rainfall was grain filling, were registered during most of the period. particularly scarce. This affected leaf area of winter and Although warm anomalies were registered for a few days spring cereals but without impacting potential yields. Yield in June and July, maximum temperatures stayed below forecasts remain positive. 29 °C and crops were hardly affected. Harvest of winter barley commenced in mid-July. Water supply was Temperatures were above or close to the average for most adequate under winter wheat but decreased under spring of the period. Rainfall was scarce and unevenly distributed barley, reaching critical values for a few days in June, across the regions. Precipitation in June was particularly particularly in Sweden, until beneficial rainfall restored soil low in East Denmark (Sjælland), with a total of only moisture levels. These conditions partially reduced leaf 16 mm (compared with a monthly average of 46 mm), area expansion, but the improved soil moisture conditions and nearly absent in South Sweden (Sydsverige). Rain helped to limit losses and maintain high yield arrived in all agricultural areas during the last 2 days of expectations. The increased rainfall at the end of June June. increased pressure from pests and diseases. Development of crops is slightly advanced. Winter cereals The outlook for sugar beet and potatoes, which are in are at the grain-filling stage and spring cereals started canopy formation, is close to or slightly above the average. flowering during the last dekad of June. Winter crops are Yield forecasts for winter and spring cereals are above the in good condition and potential yields are maintained 5-year average. above average. Moderate temperatures, favourable for 22
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia Positive yield expectations in Baltic countries; decreased yield outlook in Finland Warm temperatures in June accelerated the development senescence, with a decrease in leaf area that – according of winter crops during grain filling and affected spring to our models – was more pronounced in Latvia, Estonia cereals during critical developmental stages. Yield and Finland, and less so in Lithuania. In addition, heavy expectations are positive but variable across the different rainfall regionally flattened some cereal fields, although countries, depending on rainfall distribution. at this stage of development limited yield impact is expected. Good conditions were reported for rapeseed. Warmer-than-usual temperatures characterised the The warm temperatures, combined with the dry period, particularly during the end of the second dekad and conditions, affected spring cereals that had reached the beginning of the third dekad of June. During those days, critical stage of flowering, with a possible impact on maximum temperatures remained above 30 °C in the flower fertility and grain yield. Baltic countries and southern Finland. In Finland, the In Finland, the main concern is for spring cereals, which month of June was the warmest in our records (since are at different growth stages due to the late sowings that 1978). continued into June, especially in the southern parts of the Rainfall was scarce and mainly concentrated in the second country, and yields are estimated to be lower than dekad of June onwards, when the warmest temperatures average. For winter wheat, crop growth indicators suggest were also observed. However, the intensity of the rainfall a decreased yield outlook. Pest and disease pressure and the number of rain events varied across the countries increased in June, as a result of heavy precipitation events and within each country; particularly intense rain events combined with warm temperatures. The yield forecasts for were registered in Estonia. Higher-than-usual radiation winter cereals remain above the 5-year average, with the levels were registered in all countries. exception of Finland. Yield forecasts for spring crops are Winter cereals started the period under good conditions. reduced to close-to-average values in the Baltic countries, However, the warm temperatures at the end of the second whereas the yield outlook for Finland is below average. dekad accelerated crop development and hastened 23
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands Continued fair yield outlook despite excessive rain While weather conditions overall were favourable for crop flooding in river basins. Most of the agricultural areas growth, frequent rainfall, with some exceptionally intense impacted by this event are grassland, which has a good events hampered field activities in most regions, and capacity to recover, but croplands were also impacted. In locally caused severe damage to crops in Luxembourg, the Netherlands, for example, 870 ha of sugar beet was eastern Belgium and south-eastern parts of the partly or completely flooded 3, representing 1.1% of the Netherlands. Yield forecasts (at national level) where national sugar beet area. Heavy rainfall and strong winds mostly maintained and remain above the 5-year average. also caused damage to crops in some areas that were not affected by flooding, such as due to lodging of ripening The first two dekads of June were characterised by winter cereals relatively dry, sunny weather and above-average However, overall, the weather conditions in the region temperatures, whereas the remainder of the review period were favourable for crop growth. A negative aspect of the was rainy, with average to slightly below-average frequent rain that is common for most regions is the temperatures. hampering of field activities, including the start of the Considering the review period as a whole, cumulative winter barley harvest and the increase of pest and disease rainfall varied from close to the LTA in coastal areas to pressure, which, if prolonged, is likely to affect grain well over double the LTA in a region covering south- quality rather than yields. eastern part of the Netherlands, eastern Belgium and Our yield forecasts for most crops were maintained Luxembourg, where the review period was the rainiest 1 unchanged, except for winter barley, grain maize and June to 20 July period in our records (since 1978). potatoes in Belgium, which were revised downwards. The The latter region was particularly affected by yield forecasts for all crops considered remain above the exceptionally high rainfall around 14 July, causing 5-year average. 3 https://www.cosunleden.nl/nieuws/gewasschade-na-watersnood 24
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Greece Prolonged heat slightly stresses summer crops The review period was characterised by seasonal Although average to positive crop biomass accumulation temperatures and somewhat sparse precipitation, with the levels are observed, biotic stress due to Diabrotica and exception of Crete, Attica, and East Macedonia and Thrace. Fusarium 4 in some regions of Greece is adversely Summer crops are faring well, with some concerns if high affecting maize, already slightly under stress due to temperatures continue, since they are already slightly prolonged heat, which may limit the benefits of fertiliser under stress. application. Prolonged high temperatures are also Cumulative rainfall has been mostly lower than the LTA. resulting in slightly delayed vegetative growth in Nevertheless, fairly well-distributed rainy days and more sunflowers. frequent watering are supporting good soil moisture levels Greek farmers have completed the harvest of winter crops and average to above-average biomass accumulation for throughout Greece, and we confirm our previous forecast summer crops in most of the regions affected by indicating reduced yield for all winter crops, as also prolonged high temperatures throughout the review reported in the agricultural news 5 . However, our yield period. Moreover, in Crete, abundant rainfall in the first forecasts for summer crops in Greece are following the half of June (9-15 June) eased the situation. long-term trend. 4 https://www.agrotypos.gr/kalliergeies/sitira/kalampoki-megali-i-anomvria-sti-v-ellada-provlimata-me-to-fouzario- stin-ileia 5 https://www.agrotypos.gr/kalliergeies/sitira/kanadas-kai-zitisi-othoun-pros-ta-pano-ta-sitaria-se-diagonismo-paei-i 25
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Slovenia and Croatia Major agricultural areas suffer from hot weather and sparse rainfall A hot and dry period since the beginning of June has reached 40 ⁰C. A significant lack of precipitation was provided challenging conditions for winter wheat during recorded in eastern Croatia, the southern coastal part of grain filling, as well as for grain maize, which is Croatia and north-eastern Slovenia. The intense rainfall approaching the flowering stage. The crop yield outlook event that arrived at the end of the second dekad of July was generally revised downwards for both winter and only slightly improved the low soil moisture levels. The summer crops. rainfall events were often accompanied by hailstorms. The harvest campaign for winter wheat is ongoing. We Slovenia and Croatia experienced substantially warmer- have revised the wheat yields slightly downwards in than-seasonal weather, with air temperature anomalies Croatia, due to unusually hot and dry weather in eastern up to 4 ⁰C above the LTA. Both countries recorded Croatia during the grain-filling period. This has also between 6 and 10 – locally up to 15 – more hot days contributed to a downward revision of the crop yield (maximum daily temperatures above 30 ⁰C) than usual. outlook for grain maize, especially in Croatia. Unusually high maximum temperatures up to 38 ⁰C were recorded; locally in eastern Croatia, temperatures even 26
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 4.2. United Kingdom United Kingdom Favourable conditions during grain-filling period Favourable weather conditions, with alternating dry and spraying. With 1-2 weeks of delay compared with an wet periods, supported a positive yield outlook for spring average season, winter wheat crops are reaching ripening and winter cereals. in good to very good condition. Winter barley is slightly more advanced and displays similarly good condition. The After an exceptionally wet month of May, the first half of dry conditions of June did not affect the growth of spring June was characterised by dry and warm weather, barley, as the rainwater supply in May was sufficient to whereas the remainder of the review period was wetter keep soil moisture above critical levels. Spring barley is than usual. Temperatures and radiation in England were growing well, benefiting from high levels of radiation and close to seasonal values, while they were above the LTA temperature in the north. in Scotland. The yield forecasts for winter and spring cereals were These weather conditions were favourable to good crop revised upwards. development, while the risks of pest and diseases were mitigated by the dry weather period and by timely 27
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 4.3. Black Sea Area Ukraine Record winter grain production expected, but with poor quality Rainy and stormy weather prevailed in the main wheat- for winter barley. The harvest of soft wheat has started producing regions and, while a record wheat yield can be but is largely delayed by the cold weather observed this expected, its quality will be largely downgraded. Summer spring. Following the wet and stormy weather observed in crop conditions are good, but the yield will largely depend the main producing regions, and as highlighted in our on the weather during the coming weeks. Ukraine Bulletin, wheat quality is expected to be particularly low, and an increase in feed wheat at the While June started with a cold spell, thermal conditions expense of milling wheat can be foreseen. Yield losses due remained largely above the LTA for the analysis period, to lodging and disease pressure are still difficult to without exceeding maximum temperatures of 35 °C. Most quantify, creating large uncertainty for the wheat yield of southern and eastern Ukraine received twice the usual forecast. Nonetheless, our wheat yield forecast was amount of cumulative rainfall for the period and stormy revised slightly higher than last month, considering the weather prevailed. By contrast, a slight rainfall deficit was disease pressure had been overestimated. observed in western and northern oblasts. The yield forecast for summer crops remains in line with The warm temperatures have been slightly suboptimal for the trend: the soil moisture level is still high in the main the grain filling of soft wheat, while winter barley producing regions and rainfall is forecast for the coming benefited from the cool weather observed in early June. days. Crop conditions are good, but the situation may Winter and spring barley are forecast at a record high, and change over the following weeks. early feedback 6 is confirming an exceptionally good yield 6 https://latifundist.com/urozhaj-online-2021 28
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Turkey Unfavourable winter crop season ended Winter crops have been harvested in most of the main shortened grain filling. In the other Anatolian regions, growing regions, with negative expectations in central and summer crops are growing without constraints, thanks to western Anatolia, while more favourable crop conditions irrigation activities that are still sufficient despite low prevailed in northern regions. The summer crop season is reservoir levels. In the Black Sea regions (e.g. Kocaeli, proceeding under mixed conditions. Samsun), winter crops are in the grain-filling phase, under average conditions due to the well distributed rains. In the central Anatolian regions (e.g. Ankara, Konya, In the Aegean regions (e.g. Hatay, Adana), a dry spell has Kayseri), June was wetter than usual due to the abundant been ongoing since the beginning of June. Meanwhile, precipitation between 10 and 20 June, doubling (by 50 water demand for summer crops has constantly mm) the total precipitation for the period. This rainy period increased, due to the fast vegetative development and was accompanied by average to below-average constant high temperatures (more than 30 days with temperatures. Since then, the weather has turned dry and maximum temperature > 30 °C). A shift in growing very hot, with maximum temperatures that peaked at patterns is observed in some areas, which are presenting 36 °C towards the end of June. Although the wet period in late to poor growing conditions, probably as a June eased the unfavourable conditions for soft wheat consequence of the limited availability of irrigation water. and barley, the season ended with low yield expectations. Yield forecasts for winter crops were slightly reduced but In western Anatolia (e.g. Manisa, Bursa), winter crops still follow the 5-year average. reached maturity in worse conditions than expected in late spring, due to the high temperatures in June which 29
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 4.4. European Russia and Belarus European Russia End-of-season heatwave reduced yield expectations for winter wheat After a first dekad of June with abundant rainfall and Following a cooler-than-usual start to June, temperatures moderate temperatures, dry and hot weather prevailed in increased steeply and remained close to record-high levels most parts of European Russia. This translated into a for the rest of the review period (+2 °C to +6 °C compared shortened grain-filling period for winter cereals, negatively with the LTA). In the Southern and North Caucasian okrugs, daily maxima exceeded 30 °C throughout the period impacting the previously promising yield potential in between 15 June and 20 July. These conditions negatively south-western Russia. affected the grain filling of winter wheat and spring After the wet conditions in April and May, European Russia cereals, and are also a source of stress for grain maize continued to experience abundant rainfall during the first which is currently entering flowering stage. dekad of June in most winter cereal producing areas, The dry and warm conditions allowed the harvest of winter which was favourable for biomass accumulation. Since wheat to start and progress quickly, especially in the then (11 June – 20 July), dry conditions have prevailed, south-western part of European Russia. By 20 July, around with a rainfall deficit of up to -80% compared with the 7.7 Mha of wheat had been harvested according to the LTA in the Volga and Central okrugs. Nevertheless, most Russian Ministry of Agriculture, 7 and the first results –arou of the producing areas experienced a few days with heavy d the 5-year average - confirm that the lasting heatwave rain in early July, which maintained sufficient soil moisture reserves. has compromised the previously promising yield potential. 7 https://mcx.gov.ru/ministry/departments/departament-rastenievodstva-mekhanizatsii-khimizatsii-i-zashchity-rasteniy/industry-information/info- khod-vesennikh-polevykh-rabot/ 30
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Belarus Reduced yield outlook for wheat and barley Very warm weather accelerated grain development of Higher-than-average temperatures accelerated crop cereals and shortened the grain-filling phase. This has development and, together with rain deficits during compromised yield potentials. flowering and grain-filling stages, compromised yield potentials. Early harvest operations for winter cereals During the analysis period, daily temperatures were began during the first dekad of July. Our crop model significantly above the LTA in most of the country, with indicates below-average wheat biomass accumulation the average temperature anomaly exceeding +3 °C for and storage organ weights. High temperatures resulted in the period. Heat spells, with maximum temperatures acceleration of maize development. Biomass above 30 °C for several consecutive days, were observed accumulation of maize is developing close to seasonal during the third dekad of June and the second dekad of values. Soil moisture conditions under maize, prior to July. Rainfall totals were significantly below the LTA in flowering, have been fair, maintaining yield potentials. most of the country, with the exception of the Brest and We reduced our yield forecasts for wheat and barley, due Grodno regions where they were around average. Rain to hot and dry conditions during flowering and grain filling, deficits in June, in conjunction with hot temperatures, while the yield forecast for grain maize remains resulted in continued soil moisture depletion. This was unchanged. alleviated by scattered precipitation at the end of June and beginning of July. Radiation was above the LTA. 31
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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 6. Atlas Temperature regime 40
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Precipitation 41
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Climatic water balance 42
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Weather events 43
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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Crop development stages and precocity 45
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Relative soil moisture 46
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Precipitation and temperatures anomalies around flowering 47
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Precipitation and temperatures anomalies around ripening 48
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 Maize: precipitation and temperature anomalies on crop development 49
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021 The JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC MARS Bulletins 2021 JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 – Directorate for Sustainable Date Publication Reference Resources) 25 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 29 No 1 22 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 29 No 2 JRC MARS Bulletins are available at 19 Mar Agromet analysis, yield Vol. 29 No 3 https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins forecast 26 Apr Agromet analysis, Vol. 29 No 4 JRC MARS Explorer for regularly updated maps and remote sensing, pasture graphs https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu analysis, sowing conditions, yield forecast Analysis and reports 25 May Agromet analysis, Vol. 29 No 5 B. Baruth, S. Bassu, W. Ben Aoun, I. Biavetti, A. Ceglar, I. remote sensing, pasture Cerrani, Y. Chemin, M. Claverie, P. De Palma, D. analysis, sowing update, Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, G. Ronchetti, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, M. van yield forecast der Velde, Z. Zajac, A. Zucchini 21 Jun Agromet analysis, Vol. 29 No 6 remote sensing, pasture Reporting support SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern analysis, rice analysis, yield forecast Edition M. van den Berg, B. Baruth, M. van der Velde 26 Jul Agromet analysis, Vol. 29 No 7 remote sensing, pasture analysis, harvesting Data production conditions, yield forecast MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup 23 Aug Agromet analysis, Vol. 29 No 8 (NL), VITO (BE) remote sensing, pasture update, harvesting Contact update, yield forecast JRC D5/MARS4CAST 20 Sep Agromet analysis, Vol. 29 No 9 JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, Legal notice harvesting update, yield Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on forecast behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication. 25 Oct Agromet analysis, Vol. 29 No 10 pasture update, sowing Disclaimer The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation conditions, harvesting and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not update, yield forecast necessarily reflect the official European Commission position. 22 Nov Agromet analysis, Vol. 29 No 11 Technical note sowing update, The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is calculated on the basis of weather data from harvesting update 1991-2020. 13 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 29 No 12 Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle. PDF: KJ-AW-21-007-EN-N ISSN 2443-8278 doi:10.2760/8380
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