Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...

Page created by Eduardo King
 
CONTINUE READING
Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...
Issued: 26 July 2021
                                                                     JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7

                                                                JRC MARS Bulletin
                                         Crop monitoring in Europe
                                                                               July 2021
                                             Continued positive yield outlook
Changes in EU crop yield forecasts have been limited,
except for sunflowers, for which the forecast increased by
10%, mainly due to upward revisions for Romania,
Bulgaria and France, which outweighed the downward
revision for Hungary. Maize yield forecasts for Romania
and Bulgaria were also revised substantially upward, but
offset at the EU level by downward revisions for Hungary
and neighbouring countries in southern-central Europe.

Western European regions experienced mostly average to
wet conditions during the review period (1 June to 20 July),
while hot and dry weather was more prominent in south-
ern and south-eastern regions. Heavy storm events –
sometimes accompanied by hail – occurred in several
parts of Europe, locally causing severe damage to crops.
At regional level, the exceptionally high rainfall in much of
France, Germany, the Benelux countries, Romania and
Ukraine is likely to negatively affect grain quality rather
than yields.
Warmer-than-usual conditions reduced the yield
expectations for winter crops in the Baltic countries and
Finland. Heatwaves in central Italy, Hungary, Slovenia and
Croatia negatively affected the final stages of the growth
cycle of winter crops, and the development of summer
crops, where not sufficiently irrigated.
In Russia, consecutive heatwaves negatively impacted the
yield formation of winter wheat and spring cereals, and
are also a source of stress for grain maize.

 Contents:
 1.   Agrometeorological overview
 2.   Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions
 3.   Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring
 4.   Country analysis
 5.   Crop yield forecast
 6.   Atlas
 Covers the period from 1 June until 20 July
Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

1. Agrometeorological overview
1.1. Areas of concern
                                                                  Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, the exceptionally
                                                                  wet conditions in July hampered the harvest of winter
                                                                  crops but had limited impact on yields.
                                                                  In Ukraine and eastern Romania, the overly wet conditions
                                                                  that marked a large part of the spring continued until the
                                                                  end of June, favouring the possible spread of pests and
                                                                  diseases which are likely to reduce yield quality.
                                                                  Much warmer-than-usual temperatures are observed in
                                                                  the Baltic countries and Finland, leading to an acceleration
                                                                  in the development of winter and spring crops during
                                                                  critical stages, thus reducing yield expectations. In Italy,
                                                                  heatwaves in June and July led to shortened grain filling
                                                                  for winter crops in central regions. In Hungary, Slovenia
                                                                  and Croatia, the weather was dry and hot from the
                                                                  beginning of June, thus affecting the later stages of the
                                                                  growth cycle of winter crops and the development of
Western European regions experienced average to wet               summer crops, where not sufficiently irrigated. A rain
conditions, while hot and dry weather was more prominent          deficit in some regions of Poland and Slovakia decreased
in southern and south-eastern regions. Heavy storm                yield expectations for winter crops, while in Bulgaria
events – sometimes accompanied by hail – occurred in              precipitation is needed to sustain the development of
several parts of Europe, locally causing severe damage to         summer crops.
crops.                                                            In Russia, temperatures were much hotter than usual, with
Abundant rainfall has been observed since 15 June in              consecutive heatwaves that affected both winter and
most of France, notably in central and eastern regions. In        summer crops.

                                                              2
Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

1.2. Meteorological review (1 June until 20 July 2021)
Warmer-than-usual conditions were mainly observed                    southern part of European Russia and along the northern
in eastern and northern Europe, as well as in European               coast of the Black Sea. Anomalies in cumulative
Russia. Daily mean temperature anomalies in these                    precipitation were mainly from +80% to +150%, although
regions, with respect to the long-term average (LTA), were           in some regions (especially close to the Black Sea) higher
mainly from +2 °C to +4 °C (locally up to +6 °C). A higher-          values were observed.
than-usual number of hot days (daily maximum                         Drier-than-usual conditions were mainly observed in
temperatures of 30 °C or above) was observed in the                  some areas of the central Mediterranean, eastern and
central and eastern Mediterranean, south-eastern and                 northern Europe, the United Kingdom, south-eastern
eastern Europe, and European Russia. In all these areas,             Turkey and European Russia. Anomalies in cumulative
15 to 40 hot days were recorded.                                     precipitation were mainly from -80% to -30%, except for
Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were recorded                  Turkey where more pronounced anomalies (from -100%
in the rest of Europe, except for large regions in the Iberian       to -80%) were recorded.
Peninsula, France, Turkey and the areas surrounding the              Many large hail, severe wind and heavy rainfall
western part of the Black Sea. In these regions,                     events were observed in several parts of Europe during
temperatures did not deviate significantly from the LTA,             the analysis period. In mid-July, severe floods affected
although locally slightly colder-than-usual conditions were          river basins in western Germany, eastern Belgium, south-
recorded.                                                            eastern parts of the Netherlands, and Switzerland.
Wetter-than-usual conditions were recorded in most
of western and central Europe, western Turkey, the

                                                                 3
Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                      4
Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

1.3. Weather forecast (24-30 July)
Weather conditions will be mainly determined by a large-scale, slowly evolving trough deepening over western and
central Europe. This atmospheric pattern will favour intense precipitation events. At the same time, hot air flow from
northern Africa to the central Mediterranean is forecast to induce higher-than-usual temperatures.

Warmer-than-usual       conditions    are   expected      in       conditions are forecast in European Russia, with daily
southern Italy, eastern and south-eastern Europe, and the          mean temperature anomalies mainly from -6 °C to -2 °C.
Scandinavian Peninsula. Daily mean temperature                     Wet conditions are forecast in most of central, northern
anomalies (with respect to the LTA) are forecast to be             and eastern Europe, the eastern coast of the Black Sea
mainly from +2 °C to +4 °C (up to 6 °C in some areas of            and the northern part of European Russia. Cumulative
Sweden and Finland). In all the above-mentioned regions,           precipitation in the forecast period is expected to range
except for the Scandinavian Peninsula, 4 to 7 hot days             from 20 mm to 60 mm (locally up to 120 mm).
with maximum temperature of 30 °C or above are                     Dry conditions are expected in large regions of the
expected.                                                          Iberian Peninsula, Italy, south-western France, south-
Slightly colder-than-usual conditions are forecast in              eastern Europe, Sweden, Finland and Turkey.
France, the Benelux countries, some areas in the northern          Long-range weather forecast for August, September
part of the Iberian Peninsula, north-western Italy and             and October points to likely to occur warmer-than-usual
central Turkey. Daily mean temperature anomalies from -            conditions in most of Europe (very likely in the
2 °C to -0.5 °C are expected. Colder-than-usual                    Mediterranean region).

                                                               5
Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

2. Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions
Average biomass accumulation for summer crops

The map displays the differences between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) cumulated from 1 June
to 10 July 2021 and the medium-term average (MTA, 2011-2020) for the same period. Positive anomalies (in green)
reflect above-average canopy density or early crop development while negative anomalies (in red) reflect below-average
biomass accumulation or late crop development.

The map above predominately displays summer crop                   In Spain and southern Italy, winter cereals have been
conditions in southern, central and eastern Europe, as             harvested. In northern Italy, summer crops are growing
winter crops are in senescence or already harvested. In            under favourable conditions, but in easternmost (i.e. Friuli-
northern Europe, winter and spring crop conditions stand           Venezia Giulia) and westernmost regions, the late sowings
out, as summer crop presence in the signal is still                due to the cold and wet spring have not yet fully
marginal. Positive anomalies prevail in eastern Europe,            recovered. In France, the wet conditions in July
where vegetative growth was favoured by warm and wet               maintained adequate soil moisture levels, giving a
conditions. Average biomass accumulation is present in             favourable perspective for fair biomass accumulation of
most of the central and western countries. The exceptions          summer crops, despite their growth being hampered in
are some regions in France, Germany, Poland and northern           spring by the lower-than-usual temperatures. Winter
Ukraine, where biomass accumulation for summer crops               crops are reaching maturity after a slightly longer-than-
has been delayed since spring and is contributing even             usual grain- filling period, apart from north-eastern
less to the signal, and in the United Kingdom, where winter        regions (e.g. Picardie) where grain filling has just started.
crop senescence is starting with some delay.                       In the Benelux countries and western Germany, warm
                                                                   and wet weather at the end of June and in July favoured

                                                               6
Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

biomass accumulation of summer crops and sustained                 Romania, Bulgaria and southern Ukraine, crops are in
grain formation of winter crops (e.g. Koblenz), although           optimal shape (shown in green on the map). The beginning
locally over-wet conditions could result unfavourable. In          of June was very wet, especially in central and eastern
Poland, winter crop development is in line with last year          regions; the weather then turned drier and hotter towards
and overall crops are in average condition. The increase in        the end of the month, favouring yield formation of winter
temperatures recorded after 15 June and since the                  crops and biomass accumulation of summer crops (e.g.
beginning of July may have slightly shortened the initial          Sud-Muntenia). In the northern half of Ukraine,
grain-filling stage (e.g. Lodzkie). Similar warmer-than-           temperatures were constantly warmer than usual, while
usual conditions are recorded in the Baltics, boosting crop        precipitation became increasingly sparse. Nonetheless,
biomass accumulation just around the flowering stages              soil moisture was sufficient to sustain winter cereals
(e.g. Latvija). In central Europe (including Slovakia,             during flowering (early June) and yield formation (late
Czechia, Austria and Hungary), a dry spell since early             June). In most of central Turkey, a difficult season is
June has been accompanied by above-average                         ending earlier than usual, with a significant biomass
temperatures since 20 June, accelerating winter crop               deficit (shown in red). In the United Kingdom, the
development and thus shortening the grain-filling stage            weather in June and July was seasonal to slightly wet,
(e.g. Niederösterreich). No negative effects on biomass            allowing for proper grain formation although slightly
accumulation of summer crops are observed yet. In                  delayed compared to the average (e.g. East Anglia).

                                                               7
Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                      8
Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

3. Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring
A positive first half of meteorological summer for pastures

Conditions have been favourable for pasture biomass accumulation in most EU regions. Some regions were negatively
affected by hot and/or dry conditions, but the majority of the regions present above-average pasture productivity.

Methodological note: The map above presents the pasture productivity index (PPI) ( 1) for the period from 1 June to 10
July 2021. Positive PPI values indicate above-average biomass accumulation during this period (shades of green),
whereas negative PPI values indicate below-average seasonal biomass accumulation (shades of red). The PPI is based
on the variations of the fAPAR ( 2) signal around the temporally integrated average. Graphs for selected regions at the
end of this section show fAPAR development along the season, as compared to the MTA and last year (2020).

Substantially drier-than-usual conditions during the period                Austria, western Slovakia, and Hungary, the impact of
of review were observed in Slovenia and Croatia, where                     dry conditions on pasture biomass formation is starting to
exceptionally high temperatures exacerbated the negative                   be visible. Other regions where dry conditions have
impacts on pasture productivity. In north-eastern parts of                 imposed some level of stress on the canopy include

(1)   PPI, the relative index of pasture productivity, is an indicator of biomass formation based on the integration of the fAPAR remote sensing
      product of pasture areas (at NUTS level 3) over a period of interest. The index shows the relative position of the current season within the
      historical series from 2011 to 2020, also referred to as the medium-term average (MTA).
(2)   fAPAR: the fraction of solar radiation absorbed by green (live) leaves for the purpose of photosynthetic activity. The fAPAR depends on the
      canopy structure, optical properties of vegetation, atmospheric conditions and angular configuration.

                                                                       9
Crop monitoring in Europe - JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe ...
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, north-western Poland,                     where the dry conditions negatively impacted biomass
Finland, Baltic countries and southern Romania, even                accumulation.
though this is not always reflected (yet) in the remote             In Austria, Czechia and Slovakia, temperatures in the
sensing data                                                        main pasture areas were around average. After a dry
In Germany, grassland biomass formation is in general               beginning to June, abundant precipitation during the last
above average, favoured by warm but not too hot                     dekad of July restored soil moisture reserves in Czechia,
temperatures during June and mostly plentiful                       while in Slovakia and the north-eastern parts of Austria
precipitation (with the exception of Brandenburg). For the          dry conditions continued to prevail. Pasture biomass
region of Schleswig-Holstein, the previously observed               accumulation, as indicated by remote sensing, is above
radiation deficit has been more than compensated by                 the medium-term average (MTA) in most of Czechia, but
favourable weather conditions, and we can again observe             in north-eastern parts of Austria and in western
increased pasture productivity. Wide pasture areas in               Slovakia the impact of the dry conditions on biomass
Nordrhein-Westfalen,       Rheinland      Pfalz,   Baden-           formation is starting to be visible.
Württemberg and Bayern have been affected by extreme                Biomass accumulation in grazing areas in Greece is
rainfall events and high precipitation cumulates during the         overall in line with the MTA. In the northern regions (Epirus,
review period, resulting in oversaturated soils.                    West Macedonia, Central Macedonia and Thessaly), scarce
In eastern France and the Benelux countries,                        precipitation (from -30% to -80% compared with the LTA)
temperatures and radiation were above the LTA in the two            is likely to negatively affect pasture productivity. Other
first dekads of June; this has been followed by a radiation         parts of Greece presented a modest rainfall deficit.
deficit and temperatures below the LTA since the last               Nevertheless, in Central Greece, Attica and Thessaly,
dekad of June. Rainfall was largely above the LTA. Overall,         substantial rainfall in early June brought good conditions,
conditions for grasslands are positive, with no rain deficit        while well-distributed rainfall in July supported adequate
or water stress for the period. Notwithstanding the above-          pasture growth in Epirus, West Macedonia, Central
average biomass formation, in many areas farmers are                Macedonia and East Macedonia and Thrace. In Crete,
facing difficulties in mowing and harvesting grass with             pasture productivity was supported by abundant rainfall
adequate moisture content, due to the high frequency of             in the first half of June.
rain events; some with exceptionally high intensity leading         The remaining countries present average to above-
to water logging and inundation of low-lying areas.                 average pasture conditions (Italy, central and eastern
In Poland, above-average temperatures prevailed for                 Romania, Spain, Portugal, southern and western
most of June and at the beginning of July. The dry soil             France). The red tones showing in some areas of these
conditions during the first half of June were alleviated by         countries as well as in the Benelux region are attributed
precipitation during the last dekad of June and at the              to cloud interference.
beginning of July. Conditions are generally favourable for
pastures, with the exception of the north-western regions,

                                                               10
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                     11
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

4. Country analysis
4.1. European Union

France
A poor outlook for winter crops but fair start for most summer crops

Weather conditions have been exceptionally rainy during              winter crops remain unchanged compared to last month,
the analysis period. While the rain surplus is beneficial for        with the yield forecast for soft wheat above the 5-year
most summer crops, the quality of winter cereals is                  average.
expected to suffer from the excess rain, while the stormy            The climatic water balance and rainfall surplus being the
weather will contribute to a few losses due to lodging.              highest recorded in our database (since 1979) in the
                                                                     northern half, and among the highest in the south-western
Rainy and stormy weather prevailed during the analysis
                                                                     regions, yield forecasts for grain maize, sunflowers and
period: there was twice the usual amount of cumulative
                                                                     soybean have been revised higher than the trend. Despite
rainfall in most of the country, except in Languedoc-
                                                                     a slight delay in crop development due to the mild
Roussillon and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. Colder-than-
                                                                     weather, crops will most likely not be exposed to water
usual weather was observed, with the exception of the
                                                                     stress later this season considering the rainfall surplus.
second dekad of June. Thermal conditions have been
                                                                     Currently, only a few irrigation restrictions are ongoing.
favourable for grain filling of winter crops. Nonetheless,
                                                                     The yield forecasts for sugar beet and potatoes were
the abundant rainfall observed during the grain-filling
                                                                     revised downward, considering the bad start to the season
phase is expected to downgrade grain quality, and the
                                                                     and, for potatoes, high disease pressure due to the rainy
stormy weather lodged part of the winter cereals,
                                                                     weather.
particularly in the north-east. The yield forecasts for

                                                                12
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Germany
Difficult start to harvest of winter crops

A mostly good grain-filling period allows for a positive             moisture contents rapidly depleted. At the same time,
yield outlook for winter cereals, although frequent rains            grain filling accelerated there, due to the higher-than-
are interrupting the start of the winter barley harvest – the        average temperatures. June temperature sums centred
first crop to be harvested. Over-saturated soils in large            over eastern Germany exhibit a clear surplus, and the
parts of Germany will make the ongoing harvest of winter             development of summer crops (primarily maize) has
crops cumbersome. The recent extreme precipitation                   largely caught up after the earlier delay due to the colder-
events are not heavily impacting the overall positive                than-usual temperatures and late sowings. July is so far
outlook, but locally crop damages are very severe..                  markedly colder and wetter, with extreme precipitation
                                                                     events predominately affecting Nordrhein-Westfalen and
In general, the weather in June was beneficial for grain
                                                                     Rheinland Pfalz – leading to local crop failures and severe
filling of winter crops – warm but not too hot, and with
                                                                     damage. Plentiful precipitation is also recorded in the
sufficient precipitation, although often in the form of
                                                                     south, in Sachsen as well as in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
small-scale thunderstorms. This weather pattern changed
                                                                     Negative impacts on quality are likely and further unstable
towards the end of the month, when a first short
                                                                     weather is forecast.
heatwave ended abruptly with stormy weather. Bayern
                                                                     The yield forecasts are generally well above the 5-year
and Baden-Wuerttemberg were most affected; crops were
                                                                     average and the levels in the June forecast are confirmed,
locally damaged due to hail and lodging. The situation was
                                                                     with the exception of winter barley which has been slightly
somewhat different in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern,
                                                                     lowered. The outlook for summer crops is currently
Brandenburg and Sachsen, where very little rain was
                                                                     positive.
recorded during the first two dekads of June and soil

                                                                13
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Poland
Hot and dry June hampered optimal grain filling

The dry and hot conditions prevailing in June were not               winter barley started during the first dekad of July and is
favourable for grain filling of winter and spring cereals and        currently ongoing, with first field reports indicating
rapeseed, resulting in a slight reduction in yield                   satisfactory results. Harvest of rapeseed and winter wheat
expectations. Soil moisture deficits in June hampered                is about to begin in southern regions. Warm and humid
biomass accumulation of grain maize, while conditions of             conditions observed in July may foster the development
sugar beet improved.                                                 of fungal diseases and compromise grain quality. Locally,
                                                                     there was flooding and damage due to intense storms and
The review period was substantially warmer than average,
                                                                     associated winds causing lodging.
with temperature anomalies exceeding the LTA by 2 °C.
                                                                     July rains arrived in time to improve soil moisture
After an approximately average first dekad of June,
                                                                     conditions prior to maize flowering. Nevertheless, dry
temperatures were significantly above average until the
                                                                     conditions in June negatively impacted biomass
second dekad of July. A short heat spell, with maximum
                                                                     accumulation of maize and compromised optimal yield
temperatures exceeding 30 °C for 5 consecutive days,
                                                                     potential. After the slow start to the season, development
was observed in mid-June. Cumulative precipitation in
                                                                     and biomass accumulation of sugar beet have been
June was significantly below average. In conjunction with
                                                                     catching up thanks to adequate soil moisture levels in July
higher-than-usual temperatures, this resulted in rapid
                                                                     and high solar radiation. However, the warm and wet
drying of topsoil and a pronounced soil moisture deficit,
                                                                     weather in July favoured the development of fungal
especially in central and western regions. Significant
                                                                     disease. Fields of summer crops were locally damaged
precipitation was recorded in early July, mostly in the form
                                                                     after intense storms.
of intense storms, with strong winds and hail. As a result,
                                                                     We maintain our yield expectations for summer crops,
soil moisture reserves were replenished to adequate
                                                                     while the outlook is slightly reduced for winter wheat,
levels. Global radiation was significantly above average.
                                                                     spring barley and rapeseed, due to hot and dry conditions
Hot and dry conditions in June shortened the cycle for
                                                                     during grain filling.
winter and spring crops, and were suboptimal for grain
filling of winter wheat and spring cereals. The harvest of

                                                                14
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Ireland
Positive outlook maintained by favourable temperatures during grain filling

Cereals benefited from close-to-seasonal temperatures                 in June, but increased markedly in July. Radiation levels
and dry conditions during the grain-filling stage.                    were slightly below average.
Favourable weather sustained the positive yield forecasts             Crops are slightly delayed but in good condition. Cereals
for winter and spring cereals.                                        are at grain-filling stage and moderate temperatures were
                                                                      favourable for grain weight formation. Soil moisture levels
Variable weather conditions characterised the review
                                                                      recovered after the rainfall at the beginning of July. Crops
period. Temperatures were 3-4 °C warmer than usual
                                                                      are generally healthy although some diseases are
during the first half of June, and then were below average
                                                                      reported to have started appearing, particularly in the
until the last days of June. At that time and during the first
                                                                      south. The winter barley harvest is expected to start during
dekad of July, temperatures remained close to seasonal
                                                                      the last dekad of July, which is around 10 days later than
values. Temperatures then increased to above-average
                                                                      usual. Yield expectations remain above the 5-year
values until the end of the review period. Temperature
                                                                      average.
sums were slightly above average for the period as a
whole. Rainfall was below average and particularly scarce

                                                                 15
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Spain and Portugal
Harvest of winter crops underway with overall good conditions

The end of June and start of July have seen storm events,          In southern areas, temperatures have been oscillating
precipitating the harvest of winter and spring crops in            towards the colder side of the LTA, especially in
some regions. Conditions continue to be favourable for the         Extremadura in Spain and Alentejo in Portugal. Rainfall has
development of summer crops, especially in the northern            been in line with the LTA.
part of the peninsula.                                             Our forecasts for winter and spring crops have not
                                                                   changed from last month's Bulletin; i.e. yield forecasts for
As mentioned in the June Bulletin, rainfall returned to the
                                                                   rapeseed, rye, barley and wheat are above the 5-year
northern and central parts of the peninsula, which includes
                                                                   average but below last year’s top-record level.
the country’s main grain-producing areas. Precipitation
                                                                   Maize development is generally favourable, particularly in
events were sometimes in the form of hail, which
                                                                   northern parts of the peninsula, despite local concerns due
interrupted cereal harvesting in various places of Castilla
                                                                   to soil moisture as mentioned above. Conditions for
y León. Field access for summer crops (maize, potatoes)
                                                                   sunflowers have also continued to be favourable overall.
was hampered in some areas due to excess water in the
                                                                   Water reservoirs in Spain are estimated to be at 53% of
soil. Additionally, the establishment of potato plants is
                                                                   their full capacity (www.embalses.net), below the lower
sensitive to disease promoted by combined heat and
                                                                   levels in 2019 and well below the 10-year average of
excess soil moisture. In Castilla-La Mancha, dry heat
                                                                   66%; storage quantity is lower in Extremadura, Castilla-La
accompanied the peak of cereal harvesting in early July.
                                                                   Mancha, Andalucia and Murcia.

                                                              16
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Italy
Fair development of summer crops

Wheat suffered from the hot and dry weather in the                Windstorms and hail events in July have locally hampered
central regions. Growth of summer crops is proceeding             harvesting of winter crops and caused lodging of maize.
fairly well. Local extreme events have caused significant         In a large share of central Italy (Marche, Toscana, Umbria,
damage to crops.                                                  Lazio), the weather was almost dry, with only 10 mm of
                                                                  cumulative precipitation. Temperatures were between
In northern Italy, June was hotter than usual, with the
                                                                  +0.5 °C and +2 °C above average. Such conditions
central weeks having several consecutive days with
                                                                  accelerated senescence of winter crops, with negative
maximum temperatures above 30 °C. For June as a
                                                                  outcomes for yields. Sunflowers developed favourably
whole, there were 10 more days than average with
                                                                  where irrigated, but otherwise suffered from the dry spell
maximum temperatures above 30 °C. In July, daily
                                                                  (e.g. in the hilly regions of Marche and Toscana).
temperatures moved to more seasonal values, with the
                                                                  In southern regions, the main agricultural season has
exception of north-eastern regions where temperatures
                                                                  ended. The harvest of winter crops occurred in mid to late
remained slightly above the LTA. Precipitation was very
                                                                  June in most of the regions. The dry and hot weather came
scarce in June (80% below the LTA) but has been very
                                                                  too late to cause any significant yield reduction. Yield
abundant since 1 July (50-100 mm), with the exception of
                                                                  forecasts for durum wheat were decreased and now all
Emilia Romagna where only 10-25 mm has fallen since 1
                                                                  winter crop forecasts are slightly below the 5-year
June. In northern Italy, winter crops reached maturity in
                                                                  average. Yield forecasts for summer crop are in line with
June, after accelerated senescence due to the dry and hot
                                                                  the 5-year average.
weather. Maize growth is proceeding with average to fair
crop conditions, notably in north-eastern regions.

                                                             17
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Hungary
Dry weather conditions mostly affecting summer crops

Following the wet month of May, June was extremely dry,            had a slight negative effect on yield potentials, but the
especially in the south of the country. Winter crops are in        good water supply in May favoured grain filling. The dry
good condition, but there are concerns about summer                conditions of June also supported good grain quality, and
crops.                                                             most of the harvest was done before the heavy rains of
                                                                   mid-July. The latter should not have affected the grain
After the high rainfall during May, June and the first half
                                                                   quality of non-harvested fields, as the 4 days of rain were
of July were particularly dry: cumulative rainfall from 1
                                                                   followed by several dry and hot days.
June to 15 July was 40% to 90% below the LTA. The
                                                                   However, the yield potentials of summer crops are
greatest deficit occurred in Del-Dunántúl (south-western
                                                                   negatively impacted, as the country is poorly equipped
Hungary), where cumulative rainfall for this period was 16
                                                                   with irrigation systems. Maize leaves started to wilt and
mm, compared with an LTA of 90 mm. Heavy rainfall (up
                                                                   the rains of mid-July may not have been sufficient for the
to 50 mm) between 15 and 20 July helped to reduce the
                                                                   crops to recover. In the south of the country, maize had
water deficit in the country. Temperatures and global
                                                                   reached flowering stage while stressed (before the onset
radiation were above average for most of the reporting
                                                                   of the rains), thus lowering the yield potential. For
period.
                                                                   sunflowers, the yield potential was also impacted but to a
On balance, the yield outlook for winter crops has slightly
                                                                   lesser extent, in view of its deep rooting system.
improved. The high temperatures in June are likely to have

                                                              18
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Romania
Close to record-high yield forecast for winter wheat

The harvest campaign for winter soft wheat is progressing           less than half of the LTA values recorded. In contrast, the
well, with a very good yield outlook. Hot and dry conditions        rest of the country largely experienced seasonal
are limiting the growth of summer crops in the                      temperature conditions. Eastern Romania recorded
westernmost part of the country, while abundant rainfall            abundant rainfall, with rainfall cumulates regionally
with seasonal temperatures provided good growing                    reaching above 150 mm.
conditions in eastern Romania.                                      Soil moisture reserves are adequate in most parts of the
                                                                    country, except the Banat region where drought conditions
Western Romania experienced warmer-than-usual
                                                                    prevail. The harvest campaign for winter soft wheat is
conditions, with temperature anomalies up to +2 °C
                                                                    progressing well, with a very good yield outlook (more
compared with the LTA, and between 6 and 15 more hot
                                                                    than 50% above last year’s level). Summer crops are
days (maximum daily temperature above 30 °C) than
                                                                    progressing well, except in Banat region where drought is
usual. Maximum daily temperatures recorded in the Banat
                                                                    limiting crop growth. Nevertheless, due to favourable
region of western Romania were between 35 °C and
                                                                    conditions in the rest of the country, we have revised the
38 °C, with the longest heatwave lasting nearly 15 days.
                                                                    yield outlook for summer crops up.
The same regions also experienced lack of rainfall, with

                                                               19
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Bulgaria
Positive yield outlook for summer crops, but more rain needed in the south

The harvest campaign for winter crops is progressing well,           rainfall surplus was recorded in the north-eastern part of
with the crop yield outlook remaining positive.                      Bulgaria, with cumulates above 150 mm.
Development of summer crops is progressing well in the               Summer crops are generally progressing well, with crop
north of Bulgaria, but a soil moisture deficit has started to        development close to average. Soil moisture levels are at
affect crops in central-southern parts of the country. Due           adequate levels in the north of the country (where most
to prevailing favourable conditions in the north, the yield          arable land is concentrated), while a deficit is negatively
forecast for summer crops has been revised upwards.                  affecting summer crops in parts of southern Bulgaria, due
                                                                     to the lack of rainfall during the analysis period. If
Overall seasonal temperatures from 1 June were
                                                                     sufficient rainfall arrives during the grain-filling period,
interrupted by a heatwave in the third dekad of June and
                                                                     the negative effects can still be alleviated. The crop yield
the beginning of July. Maximum temperatures during this
                                                                     outlook for summer crops has been revised upwards. The
event were up to 38 °C in the north-western and central-
                                                                     harvest campaign for winter crops is progressing well, with
southern parts of Bulgaria. A rainfall deficit was recorded
                                                                     the crop yield outlook remaining positive.
in western and southern Bulgaria, where regionally less
than 60 mm was recorded during the analysis period. A

                                                                20
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia
Very hot and dry June reduced yield potentials

Hot and dry weather conditions prevailed from the                     and early grain filling), compromised optimal yield
beginning of June in Austria and Slovakia, shortening grain           potentials for winter and spring crops, most notably in
filling and compromising yield potentials for winter wheat,           Austria and western Slovakia. Early harvest operations for
spring cereals and maize. After a dry first half of June,             winter cereals began during the first dekad of July, with
abundant rains were beneficial for summer crops in                    satisfactory results reported for winter barley. Our crop
Czechia.                                                              model indicates that biomass accumulation and storage
                                                                      organ weights have recovered in Czechia over the analysis
During the analysis period, daily temperatures were
                                                                      period and are close to seasonal averages, while in Austria
significantly above the LTA, with the average temperature
                                                                      and Slovakia these indicators are below normal.
anomaly exceeding +2 °C. Heat spells (with maximum
                                                                      Consequently, the yield outlooks for winter wheat in
temperatures above 30 °C) were observed for several
                                                                      Austria and Slovakia have been revised slightly
days in a row. A rainfall deficit in June, in conjunction with
                                                                      downwards.
high temperatures, dried out topsoils, most profoundly in
                                                                      After a cold spring, summer crops had been delayed in
Austria and western Slovakia. In Czechia, intense rains at
                                                                      development, but due to the June temperature surplus
the end of June alleviated the dry conditions that had
                                                                      have recovered to seasonal values. Soil moisture deficits
developed following the rain deficit in the first half of the
                                                                      in June negatively impacted biomass accumulation for
month. July brought significant rainfall, which improved
                                                                      grain maize, but rain arrived in time for maize flowering.
soil moisture conditions for crops. Solar radiation was
                                                                      Nonetheless, our yield expectations for maize were
significantly above average.
                                                                      revised downwards.
The warm weather accelerated crop development and,
together with June rain deficits (coinciding with flowering

                                                                 21
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Denmark and Sweden
High yield expectations continue in both countries

Warm temperatures prevailed in June and rainfall was                grain filling, were registered during most of the period.
particularly scarce. This affected leaf area of winter and          Although warm anomalies were registered for a few days
spring cereals but without impacting potential yields. Yield        in June and July, maximum temperatures stayed below
forecasts remain positive.                                          29 °C and crops were hardly affected. Harvest of winter
                                                                    barley commenced in mid-July. Water supply was
Temperatures were above or close to the average for most
                                                                    adequate under winter wheat but decreased under spring
of the period. Rainfall was scarce and unevenly distributed
                                                                    barley, reaching critical values for a few days in June,
across the regions. Precipitation in June was particularly
                                                                    particularly in Sweden, until beneficial rainfall restored soil
low in East Denmark (Sjælland), with a total of only
                                                                    moisture levels. These conditions partially reduced leaf
16 mm (compared with a monthly average of 46 mm),
                                                                    area expansion, but the improved soil moisture conditions
and nearly absent in South Sweden (Sydsverige). Rain
                                                                    helped to limit losses and maintain high yield
arrived in all agricultural areas during the last 2 days of
                                                                    expectations. The increased rainfall at the end of June
June.
                                                                    increased pressure from pests and diseases.
Development of crops is slightly advanced. Winter cereals
                                                                    The outlook for sugar beet and potatoes, which are in
are at the grain-filling stage and spring cereals started
                                                                    canopy formation, is close to or slightly above the average.
flowering during the last dekad of June. Winter crops are
                                                                    Yield forecasts for winter and spring cereals are above the
in good condition and potential yields are maintained
                                                                    5-year average.
above average. Moderate temperatures, favourable for

                                                               22
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia
Positive yield expectations in Baltic countries; decreased yield outlook in Finland

Warm temperatures in June accelerated the development              senescence, with a decrease in leaf area that – according
of winter crops during grain filling and affected spring           to our models – was more pronounced in Latvia, Estonia
cereals during critical developmental stages. Yield                and Finland, and less so in Lithuania. In addition, heavy
expectations are positive but variable across the different        rainfall regionally flattened some cereal fields, although
countries, depending on rainfall distribution.                     at this stage of development limited yield impact is
                                                                   expected. Good conditions were reported for rapeseed.
Warmer-than-usual temperatures characterised the
                                                                   The warm temperatures, combined with the dry
period, particularly during the end of the second dekad and
                                                                   conditions, affected spring cereals that had reached the
beginning of the third dekad of June. During those days,
                                                                   critical stage of flowering, with a possible impact on
maximum temperatures remained above 30 °C in the
                                                                   flower fertility and grain yield.
Baltic countries and southern Finland. In Finland, the
                                                                   In Finland, the main concern is for spring cereals, which
month of June was the warmest in our records (since
                                                                   are at different growth stages due to the late sowings that
1978).
                                                                   continued into June, especially in the southern parts of the
Rainfall was scarce and mainly concentrated in the second
                                                                   country, and yields are estimated to be lower than
dekad of June onwards, when the warmest temperatures
                                                                   average. For winter wheat, crop growth indicators suggest
were also observed. However, the intensity of the rainfall
                                                                   a decreased yield outlook. Pest and disease pressure
and the number of rain events varied across the countries
                                                                   increased in June, as a result of heavy precipitation events
and within each country; particularly intense rain events
                                                                   combined with warm temperatures. The yield forecasts for
were registered in Estonia. Higher-than-usual radiation
                                                                   winter cereals remain above the 5-year average, with the
levels were registered in all countries.
                                                                   exception of Finland. Yield forecasts for spring crops are
Winter cereals started the period under good conditions.
                                                                   reduced to close-to-average values in the Baltic countries,
However, the warm temperatures at the end of the second
                                                                   whereas the yield outlook for Finland is below average.
dekad accelerated crop development and hastened

                                                              23
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands
Continued fair yield outlook despite excessive rain

While weather conditions overall were favourable for crop         flooding in river basins. Most of the agricultural areas
growth, frequent rainfall, with some exceptionally intense        impacted by this event are grassland, which has a good
events hampered field activities in most regions, and             capacity to recover, but croplands were also impacted. In
locally caused severe damage to crops in Luxembourg,              the Netherlands, for example, 870 ha of sugar beet was
eastern Belgium and south-eastern parts of the                    partly or completely flooded 3, representing 1.1% of the
Netherlands. Yield forecasts (at national level) where            national sugar beet area. Heavy rainfall and strong winds
mostly maintained and remain above the 5-year average.            also caused damage to crops in some areas that were not
                                                                  affected by flooding, such as due to lodging of ripening
The first two dekads of June were characterised by
                                                                  winter cereals
relatively dry, sunny weather and above-average
                                                                  However, overall, the weather conditions in the region
temperatures, whereas the remainder of the review period
                                                                  were favourable for crop growth. A negative aspect of the
was rainy, with average to slightly below-average
                                                                  frequent rain that is common for most regions is the
temperatures.
                                                                  hampering of field activities, including the start of the
Considering the review period as a whole, cumulative
                                                                  winter barley harvest and the increase of pest and disease
rainfall varied from close to the LTA in coastal areas to
                                                                  pressure, which, if prolonged, is likely to affect grain
well over double the LTA in a region covering south-
                                                                  quality rather than yields.
eastern part of the Netherlands, eastern Belgium and
                                                                  Our yield forecasts for most crops were maintained
Luxembourg, where the review period was the rainiest 1
                                                                  unchanged, except for winter barley, grain maize and
June to 20 July period in our records (since 1978).
                                                                  potatoes in Belgium, which were revised downwards. The
The latter region was particularly affected by
                                                                  yield forecasts for all crops considered remain above the
exceptionally high rainfall around 14 July, causing
                                                                  5-year average.

3
    https://www.cosunleden.nl/nieuws/gewasschade-na-watersnood

                                                             24
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Greece
Prolonged heat slightly stresses summer crops

The review period was characterised by seasonal                   Although average to positive crop biomass accumulation
temperatures and somewhat sparse precipitation, with the          levels are observed, biotic stress due to Diabrotica and
exception of Crete, Attica, and East Macedonia and Thrace.        Fusarium 4 in some regions of Greece is adversely
Summer crops are faring well, with some concerns if high          affecting maize, already slightly under stress due to
temperatures continue, since they are already slightly            prolonged heat, which may limit the benefits of fertiliser
under stress.                                                     application. Prolonged high temperatures are also
Cumulative rainfall has been mostly lower than the LTA.           resulting in slightly delayed vegetative growth in
Nevertheless, fairly well-distributed rainy days and more         sunflowers.
frequent watering are supporting good soil moisture levels        Greek farmers have completed the harvest of winter crops
and average to above-average biomass accumulation for             throughout Greece, and we confirm our previous forecast
summer crops in most of the regions affected by                   indicating reduced yield for all winter crops, as also
prolonged high temperatures throughout the review                 reported in the agricultural news 5 . However, our yield
period. Moreover, in Crete, abundant rainfall in the first        forecasts for summer crops in Greece are following the
half of June (9-15 June) eased the situation.                     long-term trend.

4
  https://www.agrotypos.gr/kalliergeies/sitira/kalampoki-megali-i-anomvria-sti-v-ellada-provlimata-me-to-fouzario-
stin-ileia
5
  https://www.agrotypos.gr/kalliergeies/sitira/kanadas-kai-zitisi-othoun-pros-ta-pano-ta-sitaria-se-diagonismo-paei-i

                                                             25
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Slovenia and Croatia
Major agricultural areas suffer from hot weather and sparse rainfall

A hot and dry period since the beginning of June has            reached 40 ⁰C. A significant lack of precipitation was
provided challenging conditions for winter wheat during         recorded in eastern Croatia, the southern coastal part of
grain filling, as well as for grain maize, which is             Croatia and north-eastern Slovenia. The intense rainfall
approaching the flowering stage. The crop yield outlook         event that arrived at the end of the second dekad of July
was generally revised downwards for both winter and             only slightly improved the low soil moisture levels. The
summer crops.                                                   rainfall events were often accompanied by hailstorms.
                                                                The harvest campaign for winter wheat is ongoing. We
Slovenia and Croatia experienced substantially warmer-
                                                                have revised the wheat yields slightly downwards in
than-seasonal weather, with air temperature anomalies
                                                                Croatia, due to unusually hot and dry weather in eastern
up to 4 ⁰C above the LTA. Both countries recorded
                                                                Croatia during the grain-filling period. This has also
between 6 and 10 – locally up to 15 – more hot days
                                                                contributed to a downward revision of the crop yield
(maximum daily temperatures above 30 ⁰C) than usual.
                                                                outlook for grain maize, especially in Croatia.
Unusually high maximum temperatures up to 38 ⁰C were
recorded; locally in eastern Croatia, temperatures even

                                                           26
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

4.2. United Kingdom

United Kingdom
Favourable conditions during grain-filling period

Favourable weather conditions, with alternating dry and           spraying. With 1-2 weeks of delay compared with an
wet periods, supported a positive yield outlook for spring        average season, winter wheat crops are reaching ripening
and winter cereals.                                               in good to very good condition. Winter barley is slightly
                                                                  more advanced and displays similarly good condition. The
After an exceptionally wet month of May, the first half of
                                                                  dry conditions of June did not affect the growth of spring
June was characterised by dry and warm weather,
                                                                  barley, as the rainwater supply in May was sufficient to
whereas the remainder of the review period was wetter
                                                                  keep soil moisture above critical levels. Spring barley is
than usual. Temperatures and radiation in England were
                                                                  growing well, benefiting from high levels of radiation and
close to seasonal values, while they were above the LTA
                                                                  temperature in the north.
in Scotland.
                                                                  The yield forecasts for winter and spring cereals were
These weather conditions were favourable to good crop
                                                                  revised upwards.
development, while the risks of pest and diseases were
mitigated by the dry weather period and by timely

                                                             27
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

4.3. Black Sea Area
Ukraine
Record winter grain production expected, but with poor quality

Rainy and stormy weather prevailed in the main wheat-                for winter barley. The harvest of soft wheat has started
producing regions and, while a record wheat yield can be             but is largely delayed by the cold weather observed this
expected, its quality will be largely downgraded. Summer             spring. Following the wet and stormy weather observed in
crop conditions are good, but the yield will largely depend          the main producing regions, and as highlighted in our
on the weather during the coming weeks.                              Ukraine Bulletin, wheat quality is expected to be
                                                                     particularly low, and an increase in feed wheat at the
While June started with a cold spell, thermal conditions
                                                                     expense of milling wheat can be foreseen. Yield losses due
remained largely above the LTA for the analysis period,
                                                                     to lodging and disease pressure are still difficult to
without exceeding maximum temperatures of 35 °C. Most
                                                                     quantify, creating large uncertainty for the wheat yield
of southern and eastern Ukraine received twice the usual
                                                                     forecast. Nonetheless, our wheat yield forecast was
amount of cumulative rainfall for the period and stormy
                                                                     revised slightly higher than last month, considering the
weather prevailed. By contrast, a slight rainfall deficit was
                                                                     disease pressure had been overestimated.
observed in western and northern oblasts.
                                                                     The yield forecast for summer crops remains in line with
The warm temperatures have been slightly suboptimal for
                                                                     the trend: the soil moisture level is still high in the main
the grain filling of soft wheat, while winter barley
                                                                     producing regions and rainfall is forecast for the coming
benefited from the cool weather observed in early June.
                                                                     days. Crop conditions are good, but the situation may
Winter and spring barley are forecast at a record high, and
                                                                     change over the following weeks.
early feedback 6 is confirming an exceptionally good yield

6
    https://latifundist.com/urozhaj-online-2021
                                                                28
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Turkey
Unfavourable winter crop season ended

Winter crops have been harvested in most of the main                 shortened grain filling. In the other Anatolian regions,
growing regions, with negative expectations in central and           summer crops are growing without constraints, thanks to
western Anatolia, while more favourable crop conditions              irrigation activities that are still sufficient despite low
prevailed in northern regions. The summer crop season is             reservoir levels. In the Black Sea regions (e.g. Kocaeli,
proceeding under mixed conditions.                                   Samsun), winter crops are in the grain-filling phase, under
                                                                     average conditions due to the well distributed rains.
In the central Anatolian regions (e.g. Ankara, Konya,
                                                                     In the Aegean regions (e.g. Hatay, Adana), a dry spell has
Kayseri), June was wetter than usual due to the abundant
                                                                     been ongoing since the beginning of June. Meanwhile,
precipitation between 10 and 20 June, doubling (by 50
                                                                     water demand for summer crops has constantly
mm) the total precipitation for the period. This rainy period
                                                                     increased, due to the fast vegetative development and
was accompanied by average to below-average
                                                                     constant high temperatures (more than 30 days with
temperatures. Since then, the weather has turned dry and
                                                                     maximum temperature > 30 °C). A shift in growing
very hot, with maximum temperatures that peaked at
                                                                     patterns is observed in some areas, which are presenting
36 °C towards the end of June. Although the wet period in
                                                                     late to poor growing conditions, probably as a
June eased the unfavourable conditions for soft wheat
                                                                     consequence of the limited availability of irrigation water.
and barley, the season ended with low yield expectations.
                                                                     Yield forecasts for winter crops were slightly reduced but
In western Anatolia (e.g. Manisa, Bursa), winter crops
                                                                     still follow the 5-year average.
reached maturity in worse conditions than expected in late
spring, due to the high temperatures in June which

                                                                29
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

4.4. European Russia and Belarus

European Russia
End-of-season heatwave reduced yield expectations for winter wheat

After a first dekad of June with abundant rainfall and                      Following a cooler-than-usual start to June, temperatures
moderate temperatures, dry and hot weather prevailed in                     increased steeply and remained close to record-high levels
most parts of European Russia. This translated into a                       for the rest of the review period (+2 °C to +6 °C compared
shortened grain-filling period for winter cereals, negatively               with the LTA). In the Southern and North Caucasian okrugs,
                                                                            daily maxima exceeded 30 °C throughout the period
impacting the previously promising yield potential in
                                                                            between 15 June and 20 July. These conditions negatively
south-western Russia.
                                                                            affected the grain filling of winter wheat and spring
After the wet conditions in April and May, European Russia                  cereals, and are also a source of stress for grain maize
continued to experience abundant rainfall during the first                  which is currently entering flowering stage.
dekad of June in most winter cereal producing areas,                        The dry and warm conditions allowed the harvest of winter
which was favourable for biomass accumulation. Since                        wheat to start and progress quickly, especially in the
then (11 June – 20 July), dry conditions have prevailed,                    south-western part of European Russia. By 20 July, around
with a rainfall deficit of up to -80% compared with the
                                                                            7.7 Mha of wheat had been harvested according to the
LTA in the Volga and Central okrugs. Nevertheless, most
                                                                            Russian Ministry of Agriculture, 7 and the first results –arou
of the producing areas experienced a few days with heavy
                                                                            d the 5-year average - confirm that the lasting heatwave
rain in early July, which maintained sufficient soil moisture
reserves.                                                                   has compromised the previously promising yield potential.

7
  https://mcx.gov.ru/ministry/departments/departament-rastenievodstva-mekhanizatsii-khimizatsii-i-zashchity-rasteniy/industry-information/info-
khod-vesennikh-polevykh-rabot/
                                                                       30
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Belarus
Reduced yield outlook for wheat and barley

Very warm weather accelerated grain development of               Higher-than-average temperatures accelerated crop
cereals and shortened the grain-filling phase. This has          development and, together with rain deficits during
compromised yield potentials.                                    flowering and grain-filling stages, compromised yield
                                                                 potentials. Early harvest operations for winter cereals
During the analysis period, daily temperatures were
                                                                 began during the first dekad of July. Our crop model
significantly above the LTA in most of the country, with
                                                                 indicates below-average wheat biomass accumulation
the average temperature anomaly exceeding +3 °C for
                                                                 and storage organ weights. High temperatures resulted in
the period. Heat spells, with maximum temperatures
                                                                 acceleration     of    maize     development.     Biomass
above 30 °C for several consecutive days, were observed
                                                                 accumulation of maize is developing close to seasonal
during the third dekad of June and the second dekad of
                                                                 values. Soil moisture conditions under maize, prior to
July. Rainfall totals were significantly below the LTA in
                                                                 flowering, have been fair, maintaining yield potentials.
most of the country, with the exception of the Brest and
                                                                 We reduced our yield forecasts for wheat and barley, due
Grodno regions where they were around average. Rain
                                                                 to hot and dry conditions during flowering and grain filling,
deficits in June, in conjunction with hot temperatures,
                                                                 while the yield forecast for grain maize remains
resulted in continued soil moisture depletion. This was
                                                                 unchanged.
alleviated by scattered precipitation at the end of June
and beginning of July. Radiation was above the LTA.

                                                            31
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

5. Crop yield forecast

                                        32
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                    33
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                    34
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                    35
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                    36
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                    37
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                    38
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                    39
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

6. Atlas
Temperature regime

                                         40
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Precipitation

                                    41
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Climatic water balance

                                             42
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Weather events

                                     43
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                    44
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Crop development stages and precocity

                                         45
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Relative soil moisture

                                             46
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Precipitation and temperatures anomalies around flowering

                                         47
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Precipitation and temperatures anomalies around ripening

                                          48
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

Maize: precipitation and temperature anomalies on crop
development

                                          49
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 7 – 26 July 2021

                                                                          The JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring in Europe is a
                 JRC MARS Bulletins 2021                                  JRC–European Commission publication from
                                                                          MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 – Directorate for Sustainable
   Date         Publication                         Reference             Resources)

   25 Jan       Agromet analysis                 Vol. 29 No 1
   22 Feb       Agromet analysis                 Vol. 29 No 2             JRC MARS Bulletins are available at
   19 Mar       Agromet analysis, yield          Vol. 29 No 3             https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins
                forecast
   26 Apr       Agromet analysis,                Vol. 29 No 4
                                                                          JRC MARS Explorer for regularly updated maps and
                remote sensing, pasture                                   graphs https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu
                analysis, sowing
                conditions, yield forecast                                Analysis and reports
   25 May       Agromet analysis,                Vol. 29 No 5             B. Baruth, S. Bassu, W. Ben Aoun, I. Biavetti, A. Ceglar, I.
                remote sensing, pasture                                   Cerrani, Y. Chemin, M. Claverie, P. De Palma, D.
                analysis, sowing update,                                  Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, L. Panarello,
                                                                          G. Ronchetti, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, M. van
                yield forecast                                            der Velde, Z. Zajac, A. Zucchini
   21 Jun       Agromet analysis,                Vol. 29 No 6
                remote sensing, pasture                                   Reporting support
                                                                          SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern
                analysis, rice analysis,
                yield forecast                                            Edition
                                                                          M. van den Berg, B. Baruth, M. van der Velde
   26 Jul       Agromet analysis,                Vol. 29 No 7
                remote sensing, pasture
                analysis, harvesting
                                                                          Data production
                conditions, yield forecast                                MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup
   23 Aug       Agromet analysis,                Vol. 29 No 8             (NL), VITO (BE)
                remote sensing, pasture
                update, harvesting                                        Contact
                update, yield forecast                                    JRC D5/MARS4CAST
   20 Sep       Agromet analysis,                Vol. 29 No 9             JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu
                remote sensing, pasture
                analysis, rice analysis,
                                                                          Legal notice
                harvesting update, yield                                  Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on
                forecast                                                  behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which
                                                                          might be made of this publication.
   25 Oct       Agromet analysis,               Vol. 29 No 10
                pasture update, sowing                                    Disclaimer
                                                                          The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation
                conditions, harvesting                                    and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not
                update, yield forecast                                    necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.
   22 Nov       Agromet analysis,               Vol. 29 No 11             Technical note
                sowing update,                                            The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a
                                                                          reference is calculated on the basis of weather data from
                harvesting update                                         1991-2020.
   13 Dec       Agromet analysis                Vol. 29 No 12

Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of
the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission
is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout
the whole policy cycle.

PDF: KJ-AW-21-007-EN-N ISSN 2443-8278 doi:10.2760/8380
You can also read