COUNTRYSIDE BIRD SURVEY REPORT - BIRDWATCH IRELAND
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In total, 402 1km squares were The Common Bird Index (CBI) was surveyed between 1998 and 2019, all based on 50 common and widespread of which have been surveyed in two or breeding birds which are monitored more years. The number of squares as part of the CBS. The indicator has covered in any one season ranged increased overall (1998 – 2019), with from 259 in 1998 to 329 in 2019. the 2019 index at 126% of the base- line index (2000), meaning that, on Species trends are reported for bird average, the population size of the species recorded in 30 or more species included in the indicator squares per year on average. Within has increased by 26 per cent. the current reporting period, a total of 48 bird species exceeded this The Common Farmland Bird Index Summary threshold comprising 36 residents (CFBI) was based on 18 common and and 12 summer migrants. widespread breeding farmland birds The Countryside Bird Survey (CBS) which are monitored by the CBS. has been in operation since 1998. Its Wren (Troglodytes troglodytes) The CFBI in 2019 was 111% of the primary aim is to monitor breeding was the most widespread species baseline index in 2000, representing bird populations in the Republic occurring in 94% of squares, followed an increase relative to the baseline. of Ireland. by Blackbird (Turdus merula), Robin Among the constituent farmland bird (Erithacus rubecula), and Chaffinch species, increases were shown in ten A random sample of 10km squares (Fringilla coelebs), that occurred in species and declines in a further six was selected, and within each, the at least 90% of squares. Average species, while the remaining two most south-westerly 1km square was abundance was highest for Rook species were stable. surveyed twice during each breeding (Corvus frugilegus) followed by Wren season. Bird counts were carried out and Starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Importantly, despite the largely along two roughly parallel 1km positive trends for many species transects in each square. Overall, 29 species showed popula- monitored through the CBS, both the tion increases, seven species declined, species trends and the wild bird This CBS report presents a summary of while the remaining 12 species have indicators reported here should be bird species trends within the CBS relatively stable trends. Greatest viewed with caution and seen against over the 22-year period from 1998 to increases were seen in Blackcap (Sylvia the backdrop of drastic declines that 2019 inclusive. For the first time, atricapilla) and Goldfinch (Carduelis occurred in the 1970s and 1980s in this report also includes wild bird carduelis). Greatest declines were in Ireland and Britain, before the CBS indicators for the Republic of Ireland, Greenfinch (Chloris chloris) and Grey began. In many cases, population namely the ‘Common Bird Index’ and Wagtail (Motacilla cinerea). The increases for species, albeit welcomed, the ‘Common Farmland Bird Index.’ remaining declining trends were for should be viewed as the recovery of Swift (Apus apus), Kestrel (Falco populations rather than tinnunculus), Stonechat (Saxicola increases per se. torquata), Rook and Magpie (Pica pica). Report Number 6 BirdWatch Ireland: Unit 20 Block D, Bullford (BirdWatch Ireland), Niall Ryan (Department of Business Campus, Kilcoole, Co. Wicklow, A63 Agriculture, Food and the Marine) and John © BirdWatch Ireland 2020. RW83. O’Halloran (University College Cork) who chairs the group. This publication should be cited as: National Parks & Wildlife Service (NPWS): 90 King Citation: Lewis, L. J., Coombes, R, H., Burke, B., Street North, Dublin 7, D07 N7CV. CBS Coordinator: Dick Coombes Tierney, T. D., Cummins, S., Walsh, A. J., Ryan, N. (rcoombes@birdwatchireland.ie) & O’Halloran, J. 2020. Countryside Bird Survey The CBS Steering Group includes David Tierney, CBS Programme manager: Lesley J. Lewis Report 1998-2019. BirdWatch Ireland. Wicklow. Sinéad Cummins and Alyn Walsh (NPWS), Dick (ljlewis@birdwatchireland.ie) Coombes, Brian Burke and Lesley J. Lewis NPWS Project officer: Sinéad Cummins Design & layout by Michael O’Clery. (Sinead.Cummins@chg.gov.ie). The Countryside Bird Survey (CBS) is coordinated by BirdWatch Ireland and funded by the National Parks & Wildlife Service (NPWS). Cover picture: Grey Wagtail by Dick Coombes.
Introduction Dick Coombes The distribution of terrestrial breeding birds in Ireland was first described in a breeding bird atlas carried out between 1968 and 1972 (Sharrock 1976). A second breeding bird atlas survey carried out between 1988 and 1991 (Gibbons et al. 1993) showed that significant range contractions had occurred over the intervening 20-year period which had obvious implications for changes in population levels (Crowe et al. 2017). These declines coincided with a period of increased agricultural intensification and land use change. Similar declines Collared Dove. in bird populations occurred through- A species, which only began colonising Ireland in the late out Europe over the same period and 1950s, has steadily increased since the CBS began in 1998. were attributed to agricultural intensification brought about by an changes in bird numbers based on a sensitive to specialised habitats, and increased demand for agricultural random selection of 1km sample respond quickly to the changes to productivity following the Second plots, stratified by region, surveyed their environments (Gregory et al. World War (e.g. Krebs et al. 1999). from year to year (Lewis et al. 2019). 2003; van Strien et al. 2012). Indicator While the two bird atlases, and a third The resulting data are the species species have been used for decades one carried out between 2007 and diversity and species abundance of as a way of assessing environmental 2011 (Balmer et al. 2013), flagged each survey square each year. Follow- conditions (Thomas 1972). Wild birds changes in the status of some species ing statistical analysis, a series of an- satisfy many of the criteria of being over time, they focused mainly on nual indices are produced for each useful biodiversity indicators in that distribution. Abundance was recorded individual bird species based on the they occur high in food chains, are in the second and third atlases, results of each annual survey. These sensitive to environmental change, providing indications of population indices relate the population in a are widespread, diverse and mobile, changes over that twenty-year period given year to a ‘baseline’ – the first and are relatively easy to census but as these atlases were carried out year that data are available (1998 in and collect data for, through well at twenty-year intervals, there was CBS), which is given a value of 100. developed and standardised clearly a need for a long-term Thereafter, the index expresses the methodology (Gregory & van monitoring programme to track population as a percentage of this Strien 2010). changes of terrestrial breeding birds ‘baseline’. The word ‘index’ is derived on an annual basis. The Countryside from the Latin indicare, meaning to A wild bird indicator is a composite Bird Survey (CBS) was therefore ‘point out’ or ‘to show’, hence the index whereby the indicator shows initiated in 1998 with the primary population index shows how the the year-to-year fluctuations in objective of monitoring the trends of population is faring over time i.e. the population trends across all species common and widespread breeding population trend for each species. that are included. Thus, the index is bird species in the Republic of Ireland the average trend of a group of (Crowe et al. 2010). The CBS has been In addition to individual species species, generally grouped by country, undertaken during all years since 1998 indices, annual indices can also be region, habitat type or guild in a with the exception of 2001 and 2020, used to produce ‘wild bird indicators’ standard way. This index then serves when Foot-and-Mouth and Covid-19 (e.g. Gregory et al. 2003; Gregory et al. to indicate the state of bird restrictions respectively, prevented 2005; Gregory & van Strien 2010). populations within these broad survey work. Indicators are a useful way of habitats/groups. presenting complex information as The CBS is an annual survey that is visual summaries (Gregory et al. 2003). Wild bird indicators were first underpinned by the efforts of around To be effective, biodiversity indicators produced in the UK in 1999 using data 225 mostly volunteer, observers each should be quantitative, scientifically mostly from the Common Bird Census, year. The survey aims to measure credible, ecologically relevant and the Breeding Bird Atlases, and the 1
Seabird Monitoring Programme. Richard T. Mills Within the Republic of Ireland, the CBS has produced indicators previously for farmland and countryside birds and these data have been used by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Central Statistics Office for environmental reporting. Importantly, CBS data are provided to the Pan- European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme (PECBMS) for European Wild Bird Indicators and the PECBMS common bird indicators are part of the Indicators of Sustainable Development of the EU, while the European farmland bird indicator has been accepted as biodiversity indicator for EU´s Structural Indicator, amongst other policy purposes. This 2020 CBS report represents a summary of bird species trends within the CBS over the 22-year period from 1998 to 2019 inclusive. For the first time, this report also includes wild bird indicators for the Republic of Ireland, namely the ‘Common Bird Index’ and the ‘Common Farmland Bird Index.’ Methods At the commencement of the survey, Greenfinch. the Republic of Ireland was divided Steadily declining – believed to be due to the into eight regions, based on the parasitic organism Trichomonas gallinae, administrative divisions of the which affects the birds’ digestive system. National Parks and Wildlife Service at that time. Ten km squares (based on the Irish National Grid) were randomly each 1km in length, about 500m activity, but to avoid concentrated selected within each region for survey apart, and about 250m from the edge song activity at dawn. Observers are coverage. For each 10km square of the square (line-transect method). also encouraged to record only adult selected, the 1km square at the Two bird-recording visits to each birds they see or hear as they walk extreme south-west corner is then survey square per year are under- along their transect routes. Bird surveyed. Those squares with less than taken. These visits are timed so that counts in heavy rain, poor visibility, 50% land, for example coastal areas or the first is in the early part of the or strong winds are discouraged. lake shores, were excluded, leaving breeding season (April to mid-May) For further details of the survey some 700 possible survey squares. and the second at least four weeks design, please refer to Lewis et al. The survey aims to achieve coverage later (from mid-May to the end of 2019. For full details of the data of the same 1km squares every year, June). This timing captures the analyses used to produce both ideally by the same observer, although abundance of residents and early individual species indices and trends there is some turnover of survey migrants, which tend to be more as well as wild bird indicators, please participants. There is a target of a easily detected during first visits, see Appendix 1. minimum of 300 squares to be and later migrants, which are more covered each year. abundant during second visits. The Latin names of species that Observers are asked to begin their underwent analysis are given in Within each square, the ideal survey counts between 06.00 and 07.00 Table 1, other Latin names are given route comprises two parallel transects, hours to coincide with maximum bird at first mention in the text. 2
Results Coverage The CBS continues to be undertaken by a combination of BirdWatch Ireland volunteers and professional staff of the National Parks and Wildlife Service and BirdWatch Ireland. A total of 683 observers have taken part in the CBS between 1998 and 2019. In total, 402 1km squares were surveyed between 1998 and 2019 (Figure 1), all of which have been surveyed in two or more years. The number of squares covered in any one season ranged from 259 in 1998 to 329 in 2019. Overall, 14% of squares were covered in all 21 years, 68% of squares were covered in at least 15 years, and 91% of squares in 10 years or more. Species trends The CBS is largely targeted at monitoring species with widespread distributions across the island. The large number of sample plots surveyed in the CBS (over 300 annually) ensures that all common and widespread breeding species are surveyed across a wide range of habitats and geographical locations. Species recorded in 30 or more 1km Figure 1. Map showing survey coverage during the CBS between 1998 and 2019, illustrating the squares per year are included in trend eight sampling regions and also showing the extent of coverage within each ranging from red (1-7 years), analyses. Within the current reporting blue (8-14 years) and green (15-21 years). period, a total of 48 bird species exceeded this threshold (and there- Meadow Pipit. Dick Coombes fore robust estimates could be derived for them), comprising 36 residents Badly hit in the cold winters between 2010 and and 12 summer migrants (Table 1). 2012, but numbers have bounced back well. Two species reported previously (Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and Stock Dove (Columba oenas) now occur in less than 30 squares per season and were excluded from analyses. Of the total 48 species listed in Table 1, 17 species occurred on average in greater than 200 squares. Wren was the most widespread species occurring in 94% of squares, followed by Blackbird, Robin, Chaffinch, that all 3
Table 1. Species recorded in 30 squares or more during the CBS between 1998 and 2019, indicating the mean number and proportion of squares in which each species was recorded, mean abundance per square and the mean annual change (trend). Where the trend has changed when compared with the last report (to 2017), an indication of the direction is given. Red- and amber-listed species of Birds of Conservation Concern in Ireland (BoCCI) are also indicated. Significant trends are represented by asterisks. A ** indicates a highly significant trend (p
occurred in at least 90% of squares. Mean abundance was highest for Rook (average 26 per square), followed by Wren and Starling. Most species assessed by the CBS are currently exhibiting trends for moderate increases in population size (Figure 2). A total of seven species declined between 1998 and 2019, the largest declining trends observed were for Greenfinch and Grey Wagtail, the latter a red-listed species on the Birds of Conservation Concern (Colhoun & Cummins 2013) (Figure 3). The Figure 2. Percentage of species exhibiting declining, stable and increasing trends. remaining declining trends were for Swift, Kestrel, Stonechat, Rook and Magpie. The largest observed When compared to the previous species (Rook) has dis-improved, from increases were for Blackcap and report (Crowe et al. 2017), the status of stable to a moderate decline (Figure Goldfinch (strong increase), with a eight species has improved, namely 5). The trends for three species further 27 species having moderate Skylark, Mistle Thrush, Robin and previously reported to have declined increases over time, the largest being Meadow Pipit (moderate decline to following the cold winters of 2009/10 for Chiffchaff and Collared Dove stable), and Raven, Long-tailed Tit, and 2010/11 (Skylark, Meadow Pipit (Figure 4). A further 12 species have Starling and Redpoll (stable to and Goldcrest), are now stable. Skylark stable trends throughout the CBS. moderate increase). The status of one and Meadow Pipit have moved from a Figure 3. Trends for species that have shown the greatest declines 1998-2019. 5
Figure 4. Trends for species that have shown the greatest increases 1998-2019.. Figure 5. Trends for a selection of species 1998-2019. 6
moderate decline to stable since the The Common Farmland Bird Index Among the constituent farmland bird previous report, as above. The status (CFBI) was based on 18 breeding species, increases were shown in ten of Song Thrush remains stable and this farmland birds which are monitored species and declines in a further six species appears to have recovered by the CBS (Appendix 1). The CFBI in species, while the remaining two fully since a downturn around 2019 was 111% of the baseline index species were stable (Figure 6). 2010/11. The trend for Stonechat in 2000, representing a marginal remains a moderate decline, although increase relative to the baseline. the species population index has recovered well since 2010/11. While the trend for Mistle Thrush is stable, Dick Coombes numbers in the recent two years (2018 and 2019) have increased substantially above baseline level (Figure 5). Indicators The Common Bird Index (CBI) was based on 50 common and widespread breeding birds which are monitored as part of the CBS. The indicator has increased overall (1998 – 2019), with the 2019 index at 126% of the baseline index (2000), meaning that, on average, the population size of the species included in the indicator has increased by 26 per cent. Overall, Mistle Thrush. there have been increases in 29 A species in moderate species, declines in eight species with decline up to 2016 but the remaining 13 constituent species now stable. showing stable trends throughout the course of the CBS (Figure 6). Figure 6. The Common Bird Index and Common Farmland Bird Index 1998 – 2019. 7
Brian Burke Blackcap Dramatic increase continues across Ireland. Discussion showing stable trends is slightly (Colhoun & Cummins 2013). fewer at 12 (compared to 15). However, positive CBS trends for The data gathered over the 22 years several farmland birds, such as some of the CBS have provided us with a Goldfinch and Blackcap both of those mentioned above, need to be valuable picture of how a large continue to thrive – these are the only viewed with caution and seen against number of our common and species classed as showing a strong the backdrop of drastic declines that widespread breeding birds are faring. increase. Goldfinches may be occurred in the 1970s and 1980s in As the time series of the survey benefitting from an increased amount Britain and Ireland, before the CBS continues to extend, the results of provisioned food in gardens during began (Donald et al. 2002, Balmer et al. become more robust and relevant. winter while the increases in Blackcap 2013). These declines, in some cases at Overall, most species are doing well, are believed to be related to climate least, can be attributed to changes in showing either increasing or stable change. Of particular note is the farming methods. Yellowhammer, for trends. When compared to the last on-going positive trend pattern for example, although stable over the 22 report (Crowe et al. 2017), three more five finch species and Reed Bunting years of CBS, was already at a very low species are showing increasing trends and the continuing stable trend for base in 1998, when the CBS was (29 compared to 26) and there are five Yellowhammer, a Red-listed species launched. The 2007-2011 bird atlas fewer species showing declines (7 under BoCCI (Birds of Conservation (Balmer et al. 2013) showed that compared to 12), while the number Concern in Ireland 2014-2019 Yellowhammer had contracted its 8
range on the island of Ireland by 61% Similar caution needs to be extended was less than half its value at the start over the preceding 40 years and is to the wild bird indicators. The point of 1970, with rapid declines from now mainly found in the cereal common bird and common farmland 1975 to 1985 attributed to changes in growing regions of the south-east. indicators are composite indicators farmland management (Hayhow et al. Cuckoo too, although stable in the designed to show broad trends in the 2017). CBS, suffered a 26% range reduction constituent species. Being used as a in the same 40-year span, probably proxy for the state of biodiversity, Over the lifetime of the CBS, the most due to agricultural intensification indicators are often used to indicate sudden and indeed steepest declines depleting its main food – caterpillars. the status of bird populations within recorded were for Stonechat, Grey Although these may be extreme the broad habitats/groups used. Wagtail and Meadow Pipit in the 2010 examples, there are likely to be other However, given the largely positive and 2011 seasons. The winters preced- farmland species which started at a trends of species within the CBS, the ing both these breeding seasons had similar low base in the CBS, so any indicators generally follow suit, and as been particularly harsh and it is gains they are making, albeit above, the increasing indicators are considered that the sustained cold welcomed, should perhaps be viewed indicative of recovering populations in weather was the cause of the as the restoring of populations to many of the constituent species, and heavy losses. former levels, rather than increases not true increases. As an example, the per se. UK farmland bird indicator in 2016 Richard T. Mills Yellowhammer. Highly dependent on arable farmland, especially cereal growing areas. Numbers stable despite considerable losses in the decades before the CBS. 9
A similar sharp, though less severe, such species which is steadily the Kestrel’s range in 40 years, but pattern of decline was found at that declining. Depleted availability of interestingly also a shift in abundance time in several other species including aerial insects both during the breed- from the northern half of the country Skylark, Robin, Song Thrush, Mistle ing season and on its migration route to the south and south-west. Of note Thrush, Wren and Goldcrest. All these and wintering grounds may be a is that Buzzards are likely to be species have since staged recoveries factor in its decline, but the loss of included in the next trend reporting to varying degrees. It is interesting to traditional nest sites in old buildings as they are now on the cusp of the note that the cold winter weather due to restoration work is also consid- 30-square threshold for inclusion in seems to have had greatest impact ered to be contributing to this iconic trend analyses. on resident insectivores and/or small- summer bird’s decline (e.g. Whelan et bodied species. al. 2019). The trend for Kestrel has also The decline in Rook numbers has been steadily downward, the reasons been gradual but ongoing and may Species which have shown long-term, are unclear. Perhaps competition from bear out anecdotal reports of long- steady declines are of greater concern the ever-increasing population of established rookeries diminishing in than those that may succumb to Buzzard (Buteo buteo) is a contributing size or even disappearing altogether severe winter weather and subse- factor. The latest bird atlas (Balmer et in recent years. Changes in agriculture quently bounce back. Swift is one al. 2013) shows a 6% contraction in may be a factor here too. Buzzard. Increasingly being recorded in the CBS, but not quite in a sufficient number of squares to be accurately monitored by CBS yet. Dick Coombes 10
The downward trend in Greenfinch On the plus side, it is encouraging to Acknowledgements has continued since it began in 2008. see that, with the exception of Swift, Studies in Britain found that the all our regular summer migrants are The Irish Countryside Bird Survey (CBS) is parasite trichomonosis was doing well, with four species of funded by the National Parks and Wildlife responsible for a major crash in the warbler and House Martin showing Service (Department of Housing, Local Greenfinch population, which began increasing trends, while Swallow, Sand Government and Heritage) and coordinated in 2005 (Robinson et al. 2010). The Martin, Wheatear, Grasshopper by BirdWatch Ireland. The CBS Steering disease appears to have gained a Warbler and Sedge Warbler are Group is comprised of Dick Coombes foothold in Ireland and it is the likely stable. However, counts of summer (National Coordinator), Lesley Lewis and cause of the downward CBS trend. In migrants can fluctuate considerably Brian Burke of BirdWatch Ireland, David Tierney, Sinéad Cummins and Alyn Walsh of the last CBS report, Stock Dove, a from year to year, most likely in the National Parks and Wildlife Service, John species closely associated with arable response to adverse weather either O'Halloran of University College Cork, and farmland, had shown a steady decline on the African wintering grounds Niall Ryan of the Department of Agriculture, up to 2016 (Crowe et al. 2017). It is or on migration. Food and the Marine. now recorded in fewer than 30 squares annually and therefore falls The CBS continues to be a valuable The success of the survey relies on the hard below the threshold for monitoring in tool in monitoring the state of our work, passion and time dedicated by the the CBS. This in itself is worrying and breeding countryside birds and helps numerous volunteer fieldworkers, and staff of NPWS and BWI that carry out visits to reflects that the ongoing trend to highlight pressures and threats on squares each year. We thank all of you. continues downwards. an ongoing basis to both birds and A list of all valued participants of the CBS their habitats. since 1998 is shown in Appendix 2. Lewis, L. J., Coombes, D., Burke, B., O’Halloran, J., References Gibbons, D. W., J. B. Reid & R. A. Chapman. 1993. Walsh, A., Tierney, T. D. & Cummins, S. 2019. The New Atlas of Breeding Birds in Britain and Ireland: Countryside Bird Survey: Status and trends of Balmer, D. E., S. Gillings, B. J. Caffrey, R. L. Swann, I. 1988-1991. T. & A. D. Poyser, London. common and widespread breeding birds 1998- S. Downie & R. J. Fuller. 2013. Bird Atlas 2007-2011: 2016. Irish Wildlife Manuals, No. 115. National Parks the breeding and wintering birds of Britain and Gregory, R. D., Noble, D., Field, R., Marchant, J., and Wildlife Service, Department of Culture, Ireland. BTO Books, Thetford, UK. Raven, M. & Gibbons, D. W. 2003. Using birds as Heritage and the Gaeltacht, Ireland. indicators of biodiversity. Ornis Hungarica, 12-13, Buckland, S. T., Magurran, A.E., Green, R.E. & Few- 11-24. Pannekoek, J. & A. J. van Strien. 1996. TRIM – Trends ster, R.M. 2005. Monitoring change in biodiversity & Indices for Monitoring Data. Research Paper No. through composite indices. Philosophical Gregory, R. D. & van Strein, A. 2010. Wild bird 9634, Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg. Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, indicators: using composite population trends of Biological Sciences 360, 243-254. DOI: birds as measures of environmental health. Robinson, R. A., B. Lawson, M. P. Toms, K. M. Peck, J. 10.1098/rstb.2004.1589. Ornithological Science, 3-22. K. Kirkwood, J. Chantrey, I. R. Clatworthy, A.D. Evans, L. A. Hughes, O. C. Hutchinson, S. K. John, T. Colhoun, K. & S. Cummins. 2013. Birds of Conserva- Gregory, R. D., A. van Strien, P. Vorisek, A. W. Gmelig W. Pennycott, M. W. Perkins, P. S. Rowley, V. R. tion Concern in Ireland 2014-2019. Irish Birds 9, Meyling, D. G. Noble, R. P. B. Foppen and Simpson, K. M. Tyler & A. A. Cunningham. 2010. 523-544. D. W. Gibbons. 2005. Developing indicators for Emerging infectious disease leads to population European birds. Philosophical Transactions of the declines of common British Birds. PloS ONE 5: Crick, H.Q.P. 1992. A bird-habitat coding system for Royal Society B 360, 269-288. e12215 use in Britain and Ireland incorporating aspects of land management and human activity. Bird Study Hayhow, D. B., Ausden, M. A., Bradbury, R. B., Sharrock, J. T. R. 1976. The Atlas of Breeding Birds in 39, 1–12. Burnell, D., Copeland, A.I., Crick, H. Q. P., Eaton, M.A., Britain and Ireland. Poyser, Berkhamsted. Frost, T., Grice, P.V., Hall, C., Harris, S.J., Morecroft, Crowe, O., Coombes, R.H., Lysaght, L., O’Brien, C., M.D., Noble, D.G., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Watts, O. & Thomas, W. A. 1972. Indicators of environmental Choudhury, K.R., Walsh, A.J., Wilson, H.J. & Williams, J.M. 2017. The state of the UK’s birds 2017. quality: an overview. In: (W. A. Thomas eds): O’Halloran, J. 2010. Population trends of wide- The RSPB, BTO, WWT, DAERA, JNCC, NE and NRW, Indicators of environmental quality. Plenum Press. spread breeding birds in the Republic of Ireland Sandy, Bedfordshire. New York. P 1 – 5. 1998–2008. Bird Study 57, 267–280. Joys, A. C., D. G. Noble & S. R. Baillie. 2003. Van Strien, A. J., Soldaat, L. L. & Gregory, R. D. 2012. Crowe, O., Coombes, R. H., Tierney, T. D., Walsh, A, J. Evaluation of species coverage and precision using Desirable mathematical properties of indicators & O’Halloran, J. 2017.Countryside Bird Survey Report the BBS indexing method. BTO Research Report No. for biodiversity change. Ecological Indicators 1998-2016. BirdWatch Ireland, Wicklow. 317. Thetford, UK. 14, 202-208. Donald, P.F., G. Pisano, M. D. Rayment & D. J. Pain. Krebs, J. R., J. D. Wilson, R. B. Bradbury & G. M. Siri- Whelan, R., Hayes, W. & Caffrey, B. 2019. Saving 2002. The Common Agricultural Policy, EU enlarge- wardena. 1999. The second silent spring? Nature Swifts. Publication funded by The Department of ment and the conservation of Europe’s farmland 400, 611–612. Culture, Heritage and the Gaeltacht through the birds. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 89, National Parks and Wildlife Service’s National 16–182. Biodiversity Action Plan Fund. 11
Appendix 1 Data analyses – species trends Population change is shown in the The total numbers of adult birds of form of annual indices, where the Survey design and each species detected in each 1km result from the first season (1998) is square were calculated for each year. constrained to a value of 100, and field methods The maximum of the two counts results for all other years are The CBS is based on a random (from early and late visits) was used expressed relative to this baseline. stratified sampling approach. At the as the annual measure of relative A constant rate of decline is commencement of the survey, the abundance for each species. Annual exponential when illustrated. For Republic of Ireland was divided into population indices were calculated example, if a population is declining eight regions, based on the adminis- using TRIM (Trends & Indices for by 50% each year, then if the initial trative divisions of the National Parks Monitoring Data), a programme index is 1, the index at timepoint 2 is and Wildlife Service at that time. used for the analysis of time series of 0.5, and at timepoint 3 is 0.25. If the These regions varied in size, and counts with missing observations population doubles each year, then each contained between three and (Pannekoek & van Strien 1996). the index values for the respective four counties. Ten km squares (based Counts are modelled as a function of timepoints are 2, 4 and 8. Index on the Irish National Grid) were square (site) and year effects, with values are thus measures of relative randomly selected within each interpolated estimates for site-year abundance for a species, and usually region for coverage. Those squares combinations with missing data. The the relationship between this and with less than 50% land, for example stratified sampling design results in the absolute abundance is coastal areas or lake shores, were unequal representation of regions unknown. excluded, leaving some 700 possible across Ireland, so annual counts survey squares. For each 10km were weighted by the inverse of The mean annual change was square selected, the 1km square at the proportion of the area of each calculated as the slope of the line of the extreme south-west corner is region that was surveyed that year. best fit through the annual indices then included for possible survey. and was extrapolated across the The survey aims to achieve coverage Population trends for species time series 1998-2019 to generate of the same 1km squares every year, occurring in a mean of 30 or more modelled values assuming a ideally by the same observer, squares over the duration of the linear fit. although there is some turnover of survey were estimated by examining survey participants. Within each the overall rate of annual change, Data analyses – wild bird square, the ideal survey route precision below this threshold indicators (index) comprises two parallel transects, considered to be low (Joys et al. each 1km in length, about 500m 2003). A wild bird indicator is a composite apart, and about 250m from the index whereby the indicator shows edge of the square. However, for the year-to-year fluctuations in practical reasons there is sometimes deviation from the ideal route (Crowe et al. 2010). Each 1km transect is divided into five 200 m sections, at which level all information is collected. Three visits to each survey square per year are undertaken. During a reconnais- sance visit, the transect routes are planned and habitat information recorded. Habitat data are recorded using codes from an established hierarchical system common to a range of bird surveys in the UK Dick Coombes (Crick 1992). Bird counts are Whitethroat. undertaken on the second and A summer migrant on the increase – one of third visits. four warbler species showing upward trends. 12
population trends across all species indicator. This is the same as saying Table A1. Species included in composite that are included. The Common Bird that, on average, there are 10% more indicators - The Common Bird Index (CBI) and Index (CBI) was based on 50 individuals in the population of each Common Farmland Bird Index (CFBI). common and widespread breeding species. birds, while the Common Farmland Species CBI FBI Bird Index (CFBI) was based on 18 • Conversely, a decrease in the Sparrowhawk 4 common and widespread breeding indicator from 100 to 90 would Kestrel 4 4 farmland birds which are monitored mean that the average change in Pheasant 4 4 by the CBS (Table A1). Thus, the each species index included in the Feral Pigeon 4 indicator is -10%. Stock Dove 4 4 index is the average trend of a group Woodpigeon 4 4 4 of species, grouped by, in this case • It is important to remember that Collared Dove 4 (1) common and widespread the indicator is an aggregate of Cuckoo 4 breeding birds, and (2) common individual species indices and hence Swift 4 farmland birds. Note that despite the masks a lot of variation among Skylark trend for Sparrowhawk and Stock individual species and groups of Sand Martin 4 Dove not being reported because species. Therefore, increases in some Swallow 4 4 these species now occur in less than species and decreases in other House Martin 4 30 squares per year (29), they were species can balance one another. Meadow Pipit 4 included in the CFBI to provide Grey Wagtail 4 consistency with previous indicator • An increasing indicator does not Pied Wagtail 4 4 calculations. mean that the majority of species Wren 4 included has increased because the Dunnock 4 The composite index was calculated index can be strongly influenced by Robin 4 as the geometric mean of all the a large magnitude change in one or Stonechat 4 4 individual indices of the constituent Wheatear 4 more of the species included. species, with no weightings - so that Blackbird 4 • The indicator treats every species Song Thrush 4 each species has the same relative as equivalent and does not weight Mistle Thrush 4 4 effect on the indicator. The geometric trends by the population size of Grasshopper Warbler 4 mean is used to ensure that a Sedge Warbler each species. The use of equal 4 doubling in the population index of Whitethroat weights across species ensures one species (e.g. 100 to 200) is Blackcap 4 4 balanced by a halving (e.g. 100 to 50). changes in the indicator are not Chiffchaff 4 completely dominated by the trends Willow Warbler 4 The indicators serve to indicate the in the most common species. Goldcrest state of bird populations within the Long-tailed Tit 4 • The geometric mean is used in wider countryside. However, it Coal Tit 4 4 should be borne in mind that they calculations because it is less Blue Tit 4 are based on data from common influenced by outlying single values Great Tit 4 4 and widespread breeding bird (outliers). In this case the use of the Magpie species only. Certain species arithmetic mean is inappropriate Jackdaw 4 4 groupings, for example, breeding because species that are increasing Rook 4 4 wading birds and birds of prey are by a constant proportion per year Hooded Crow 4 4 not included in the Common carry greater weight than species Raven 4 Farmland Bird Index and the that are decreasing at the same Starling 4 4 indicator cannot adequately proportional rate (Buckland et al. House Sparrow 4 4 represent these species. 2005). Thus, the geometric mean is Chaffinch 4 4 more appropriate because outliers Greenfinch 4 4 in population increases are relatively Goldfinch 4 4 4 4 Key points to understanding common. The geometric mean is Linnet 4 the indicators also invariant to the choice of Redpoll • An increase in the indicator from weights, avoiding the need to Bullfinch 4 Yellowhammer 4 4 100 to 110 would mean an average specify subjective weights that Reed Bunting 4 change of +10% in each of the have no rigorous scientific basis species indices that make up the (Buckland et al. 2005). 13
Marie Foley, Pat Foley, Ciaran Foley, Joe Foley, Aidan Caroline Murphy, Kate Murphy, Kevin Murphy, Appendix 2 Foley, Sarah Jane Fortune, Denise Foulkes, Jim Fox, Jacintha Murphy, Michael Murphy Sandra Murphy, John Fox, Eddie Foyle, Stephen Franck, Kathryn Pat Murphy, Evelyn Murray, Tony Murray, Georgia We thank all of the Freeman, Patricia Fuentes , Janice Fuller, Debbie Gaffney, Laura Gallagher, Tara Gallagher, Joanne Murray, Gerard Murray, Mieke Muyllaert, Tony Nagle, Erin Neary, Tom Neenan, Rev David Nesbitt, Daniel dedicated observers who Gallagher, Colin Gallagher, Vincent Gallagher, Paul Neville, Willie Newe, Aine Ni Shuilleabhain Róisín have participated in the CBS Galvin, Rory Gardner, Emmet Gavin, Emer Giddy, Nigfhloinn, Des Nolan, Jane Nolan, Albert Nolan, Jim Girion Girion, Emma Glanville, Adrian Glasgow, Noonan, Maura Noonan, Michael Noonan, Gabriel Joe Adamson, David Anchell, Peter Anderson, Eugene Breeda Gleeson, Andrew Glenn-Craigie, Michael Noonan, Mark Norris, Kevin Nunan, Laura Nuttall, Archer, Tina Aughney, Craig Ayres, Paul Baker, Tony Glynn, Pauline Goggin, Ruairi Goodwin, Ruairi Michael Oates, John O'Boyle, Cathal O'Brien, Seamus Baldock, Enda Bannon, Jessica Barrett, Mick Barry, Goodwin, Tim Gordon, Jo Gordon, T. Gordon, Jackie O'Brien, Margaret O'Brien, Irene O'Brien, Philip Marie Bartlett, Penny Bartlett, Colin Barton, H. Gorman, Brian Gormley, Brian Gormley, Kieran Grace, O'Carroll, Séamus Ó'Ciarduáin Michael O'Clery, Baumann, Myrna Beardsworth, Michael Bell, Jenny Patrick Graham, Nick Gray, Elena Green, Jim Greene, Micheal O'Coileain Dan O'Connell, Sr Mary O'Connell, Benito, Bernadette Bergin, Dominic Berridge, Simon Roger Greene, Tim Griffin, Michael Gunn, John Laurence O'Connell, Kevin O'Connell, Peadar Berrow, Eddie Berry, Tony Berry, Sinead Biggane, Ann Guthrie, Josephine Guthrie, Thomas Gyorffy, D. O'Connell, Jack O'Connell, Michael O'Connell, Bingham, Sam Birch, Brendan Black, David Bluck, Haisley, Frank Halbert, Lesley Hambrook, Billy Brendan O'Connor, Brian O'Connor, Charlie O'Connor, Helen Boland, Hans Bomhoff, Richard Bono, Heather Hamilton, John Hand, Hugh Hanley, Josephine Fergal O'Connor, Kate-Marie O'Connor, Daire Bothwell, Neil Bourke, Aoife Boyd, Fintan Bracken, Hanley, Vincent Hanlon, Cathryn Hannon, Gordon O'Criodain, Aonghus O'Donaill, Padraig O'Donnell, Fran Brady, Marion Brady, Dermot Breen, Sean Breen, Hardwicke, Michael Harkin, Niall Harmey, Yvonne Mick O'Donnell, Declan O'Donnell, Ger O'Donnell, John Breen, Margaret Brennan, Martin Brennan, Niall Harrington, Seamus Hassett, Niall Hatch, Dennis John O'Donnell, Tim O'Donoghue, Seamus Brennan, Derek Brennan, Bro Angelo, Thomas Broe, Hawke, Don Healy, Michele Healy, Clare Heardman, O'Donoghue, Padraigin O'Donoghue, Barry Anthony Brogan, Leo Brogan, David Brooks, Joan Ann Stephen Heery, Luke Heffernan, John Hehir, Barry O'Donoghue, Susan O'Donohoe, Joan O'Faherty, Brosnan, Maurice Bryan, Daniel Buckley, Noel Henn, Joe Henry, Fergal Henry, Paul Higgins, Gerry Sean O'Farrell, John O'Flaherty, Eanna O'Flynn, Neil Bugler, Patsy Burke, Eileen Burke, Paul Burke- Higgins, John Higgins, Iain Hill, Gary Hill, Kathleen O'Gorman, Maree O'Gorman, Rosemary O'Gorman, Kennedy, Tim Burkitt, Roger Bushell, Marian Bushell, Hinde, Mike Hirst, Con Hogan, Dan Hogan, Sean Richard O'Gorman, Olivia O'Gorman, John O'Halloran, Andrew Butler, Jim Byrne, Paul Byrne, Brian Caffrey, Hogan, Mick Hogan, Staphanie Holstead,Chris Honan, Donna O'Halloran, William O'Halloran, Tim O'Hara, Sue Callaghan, Greg Campbell, Richard Cannon, John Joe Hopkins, Chris Houlihan, Mairin Hughes, Jackie Jane O'Hara, Michael O'Keefe, Daniel O'Keefe, Jean Carey, Susan Carmody, Bruce Carrick, John Carroll, Hunt, Geoff Hunt, Trevor Hunter, Caroline Hurley, Ben O'Keefe, Ciaran O'Keeffe, Denis O'Mahony, Ciara Terry Carruthers, Alison Carter, Edward Carty, Helen Huskinson, Trish Hyde, John Hynes,Robert Imbush, O'Mahony, Dermot O'Mahony, Elaine O'Malley, Nuala Carty, Catherine Casey, Stephen Casey, Ciaran Casey, Brendan Ingoldsby, Justin Ivory, Gearoid Jackson, O'Malley, Stephen O'Malley, Niall O'Muiri, Charlie May Cashman, Noel Cassidy, Caomhe Cawley, Pat Margaret Jackson, Jack James, Graham Johnston, O'Neill, Michelle O'Neill, Claire O'Nolan, Ger O'Regan, Christie, Simon Clark, Damian Clarke, Amanda Clarke, Stefan Jones, James Kapalo, Padraig Kavanagh, Joe Michelle O'Regan, Niall O'Reilly, Patrick O'Shea, Tom Clear, Conor Clenaghan, Gerry Clerkin, Cameron Kavanagh, Laura Kavanagh,Tom Kealy, Paula Kearney, Stephen O'Shea, Christian Osthoff, Oran O'Sullivan, Clotworthy, Michael Cobley, Letizia Cocchiglia, David Paul Keating, Elaine Keegan, Karen Keegan, Padraig Paddy O'Sullivan, Michael O'Sullivan, Michael Cole, Kyran Colgan, Kendrew Colhoun, Bríd Colhoun, Keirns, Niamh Kellaghan, Katherine Kelleher, Joe & O'Sullivan, Dennis O'Sullivan, John Palmer,John Kevin Collins, Jane Coman, Padraig Comerford, Annette Kelly, Aidan G. Kelly,Sean Kelly, Kilian Kelly, Parkin, Jordan Patton, James Pembroke, Chris Declan Coney, Elerina Conneelly, Naoimh Conneely, Caroline Kelly, Therese Kelly, John Kennedy, Henry Peppiatt, Ben Phalan, Peter Phillips, George Phipps, Patrick Conneely, Dan Connell, Eoin Connelly, Kenny, Fridolin Kerr, Antoin Kiely, Michael Killeen, Daphne Pochin Mould, Claire Pollock, Brian Porter , Caroline Connolly, Alan Connolly, Maurice Connolly, James Kilroy, Austin Kinsella, Ken Kinsella, Nancy Gerry Power, Andrew Power, Frank Prendergast, Paula Paddy Connors, Jimmy Conroy, Dick Coombes, Alison Klein, Peter Kysela, Andrew Lambe , Olivia Lardner, Prendergast, Robin Price, Bob Price-Adams, Vanessa Cooper, Alex Copland, Ilse Corkery, William Jim Lawlor, Niall Leahy, Ruth-Ann Leak, Suzanne Price-Adams, Aileen Prole, Paul Proudfoot Michael Cormacan, Sean Corry, Paudie Cosgrove, Joe Ledwith, Larry Lenehan, Noel Lenehan, Joe Lennon, Purser, Pat Pykett, Paddy Quinn, John Quinn, Jessica Costelloe, John Coveney, Donal Coveney, Phil Cox, Lesley Lewis, Michael Lewis, Ita Logan, John Lovatt, Quinn, Noel Raftery, Christopher Ramsey, Ted Peter Craven, Michael Creegan, Peter Crisp, John John Lusby, Rob Lynch, Annette Lynch, Aine Lynch, Rearden, Mark Reed, David Rees, Moya Reid, Brian Cromie, Jerry Cronin, Ciaran Cronin, Christine Croton, Jen Lynch, Tom Lynch, Linda Lyne, Jerry Lyons, Liam Reidy, Michael Reilly, Peadar Reynolds Mary Riordan, Olivia Crowe, Miriam Crowley, Sekeeta Crowley, Lysaght, Carmel Mackey, Kay Macklin, Coilin A. Robb, Tony Roche, Marie Rochford, Tim Roderick, Seamus Cuddy, Teresa Culhane, Seamus Culhane, MacLochlainn, Emer Magee, Rosie Magee, John Ger Rogan, Brendan Rooney, Marie Rooney, Hugh Denis Cullen, Majella Cullen, Tony Culley, Maura Maher, Mary Mahony, Seamus Mallon, Colm Malone, Rothwell, Stuart Roy, Denis Ryan, Michael Ryan, Culligan, Sinead Cummins, Kieran Cunnane, Alice Malachy Mangan,Declan Manley, Ruth Mann, Wendy Pearse Ryan, Tom Ryan, Donal Scannell, Franz Curran, Breda Curran, Donna Curtin, Ignatius Cusack, Martin, Breffni Martin, Paddy Martin Angela Mason, Scholand, Sol Schvartzman, Lorcan Scott, James John Cusack, Barry Dalby, Gregory Daly, Clive Albert Mason Seamus Masterson John Matthews, Pat Scully, Eoin Scully, Catherine Seale, Joe Shannon, Neil Darling, John Davis, Mike Davis, Michael Davis, Maxwell, John McAdam, Louise McAlavery, Kate Sharkey, Bob Sharpe, Jim Sheehan, Hugh Shepherd, Mark Davis, Claire Deasy, John Deasy, Hugh Delaney, McAney, Deirdre McAvinchey, Fiona McAuliffe, Brigid Ralph Sheppard, Kathryn Sheridan Paddy Sheridan, Eamonn Delaney, Pat Dempsey, Edward Denniston, McCabe Nicholas McCabe, Peter McCarron, Flor Caroline Shiel, Mark Shorten, Pat Smiddy, Sean Smith, John Mark Dick, Ethna Diver ,Terry Doherty, Anita McCarthy, Kathleen McCormick, Mark McCorry, Larry Moray Souter, Andrew Speer, Sarah Stapleton, Robert Donaghy, Joe Doolan, Eamonn Doran, Paul Dowding, McDaid, Lee McDaid, Michael McDonagh, Cathy S Steed, Ray Stephens, Michael Stinson Jane Stokes, Pascal Dower, Margaret Doweth, Frank Doyle, Hazel McDonald, Rosemarie McDonald, Caroline McDonald, Bob Strickland, Philip Strickland, Wendy Stringer, Doyle, Susan Doyle, Pauline Doyle, Gene Draper, Sinead McDonnell, Seamus McDonough, Steve Neil Stronach, Denis Strong, Clodagh Studdert, Dave Nick Duff, Richard Duff, Brian Duffy, Dave Duggan, McEntegart, Paul McFadden, Ger McGann, John Suddaby, Eva Sweeney, Eugene Sweeney, Niamh Graham Duncan, Kevin Dunleavy, Teresa Dunne, McGillicuddy, Seamus McGinty, Bernie McGrath, E Sweeney, Eoin Sweetman, Mary Talbot, Malcolm Rosaline Dunphy, Pat Durkin, Mary Durkin, Tommy oin McGreal, Brendan McGuigan, Congella McGuire, Tanner, Tom Tarpey, Rebecca Teesdale, Marianne Ten Durkin, Jamie Durrant, Kieran Dwane, Bridget Dwyer, Becky McIndoe, Barbara McInerney, David McKay, Cate-Whilde, Bryan Thompson, Kate Thompson, Roy Richard Dwyer, Maurice Eakin, Richard Eakins, Andrew McKeever, Rodney McKenna, Elizabeth Thompson, Niall Tierney, David Tierney, David Nathalie Eakins, Declan Egan, Fiona Egan, Martin McKenna, John McKenna, Hugh McLindon, Barry Toohey, Peter Towe, Yvonne Traynor, Maura Turner, Egan, Pat Egan, Siobhan Egan, Ciaran Egan, McMahon, Frank McMahon, Jim McNally, Brian Frank Turpin, Aine Ui Dhubhshlaine, Julie Vangendt, Andrew Ellard, Jamie Ellis, John Emmett, Liam McNamara, David McNamara, Roger McNaughton, Pat Vaughan, Bart Venneman, Yvette von Cramon, English, Martin Enright, Seamus Enright, Norman Josephine McNern, Peter McQuillan, Berna Brendan Wall, Marita Wall, Eugene Wallace, Paul Evans, Dave Fabby, Finbar Fagan, Peter Fagan, Liz McQuillan, Rosena McShane, Anna McWilliam, Donal Walsh, Alyn Walsh, Cathy Walsh, David Walsh, Philip Fahey, Patrick Fanning, Frances Farrell, Fiona Farrell, McWeeney, John Meade, Stephen Meaney, Tony Mee, Walton, Graham Webb, Andrea Webb, Pádraig Webb, Shane Farrell, Kristina Feeney, Rory Feeney, Seamus Allan Mee, Oscar Merne, Cian Merne, Brian Meskell, Gill Weyman, Bill Wheel, Rob Wheeldon, Gerry Feeney, Caitriona Fenton, Fernando Fernandez, Eamon Meskill, Robbie Miller, Les Milne, John Milroy, Wheeler, Ricky Whelan, Janet Whelehan, Michael Connor Finch, John Fingleton, Catherine Fingleton, Nicholas Mitchell, Richard Moles, Sandra Molloy, Whelan, Paul Whitelaw, Kevin Whyte, Tristam Whyte, Des Finnamore, Triona Finnen, Cathy Fisher, Therese Martin Moloney, Daniel Moloney, Jason Monaghan, Gareth Williams, Ray Wills, Chris Wilson, Faith Wilson, Fitzgerald, Mary Fitzgerald, David Fitzgerald, Billy Jim Moore, Mark Moore, Des Moore, Peadar Morgan, Fran Wolstenholme, Will Woodrow, Jerry Wray, Fitzpatrick, Tom Flanagan, Noel Flanagan, Pat Tim Morgan, Megan Morris, Doreen Morrison, Bea Michael Wright, Mick Wright, Piotr Wrobel. Flemming, Leonard Floyd, Ciara Flynn, Enda Flynn, Moya, Donal Mulcahy, Pat Mulhern, Michael Murphy, Maeve Flynn, Orla Flynn, Billy Flynn, Owen Foley, Declan Murphy, Pat Murphy, Brendan Murphy,
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